A follow-up to: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/r9WUiqiBzNScfnU.html The podcast Jon is referring to: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/g8dmi8yfyrLZlpc.html

It's crazy how tech went from "dream job" to "tech is dead" in like 5 years. 12 years ago it was MYTHICAL to become a SWE. Now it's like ...... I gotta learn all this crap just to make as much as an ok car salesman? You want me to be constantly learning on my own time and my own dime so I can make 55 - 70k? I have to learn a JS framework every 3 months to remain "relevant"? Bro I'm just gonna go sell phones at Best Buy.

I worked in technology for 40 years, employees being in the job market driver's seat never lasts long.

Jonathan helped me to gain enough bravery to give up on learning web dev, just because I'm afraid I won't be able to get hired, and devote all my time to data science and gamedev, something I'm passionate about, even though it might be harder to find employment, I think it'll be worth it instead of doing what you hate for money.

Personally I'd love to see other jobs require more technical ability , than more pure-tech jobs

From what I have read is there are millions of tech jobs unfulfilled. These companies are laying off excess project managers, and devs that make like 400k a year. Those devs won’t be competing with kids out of college. Plus not every company is FANG. Tons of local businesses, banks, fintech etc. it may not be as dire as you think. But who the hell knows in the end

I literally started my own gamedev project two years ago after going on furlough from my start up job after the lockdowns went in to effect. Still working on it. No money taken from anyone yet, been completely self funded thus far.

It's glaring to anyone who is honest enough to see it. Twitter has *thousands* of employees. How did Twitter evolve in 15 years? It almost didn't. In fact it got progressively worse and slower to use. It's crazy and cannot go on forever. In comparison, Valve has 450 employees (which, John will argue, is probably still too much hehe).

The model of building tech companies based on (speculative investment funding) is not the only one. Companies can organicly grow from micro and scale up over a longer time. This means sustainable incremental profits of which a percentage is reinvested into innovation and scaling up.

a lot of people need web developers. they just cant afford them. many businesses could benefit from updates in their tech

Overall, tech industry is just suffering a bit of the real world after a decade of being in a bubble. It's normal, not the end of the world. Also most of the things in life operate as a pendulum, or cycles, however you want to see it. We will see a big wave in a few years when AI hits heavily.

This happened to me, caused me unemployment for six months, and now I'm thousands in debt. Should have taken the signs more seriously and pivoted profession.

I've been working as a programmer since 2015. Not very long. But I've worked at a few different levels of difficulty -- websites, web apps, blockchain, and now games -- and I can't help but dwell on this to consider how best to prepare for my future. I think the following is true for those working in web: - It isn't easy to earn those 6-figure salaries so many "web-dev" teachers like to talk about. - It's important to have produced work that can be easily reviewed by others (e.g. hiring managers). - Web-devs are a dime a dozen, so it's important to work towards becoming a self-sufficient freelancer / contractor, or even build your own products. - Your typical web-dev learning PHP, JS, Python, etc. isn't as knowledgeable as someone programming for systems or games, so web-devs should strive to fill those gaps and level up. Jon makes a point of saying that the skills of an experienced game / game engine programmer will always be in demand; whereas, frontend / backend web-dev generalists will have a tough time. I have spent any free moment I have trying to escape the limits of my web-dev knowledge, so I know this to be true.

It's over. I'm applying too much I might be in their blacklist or something. The current ratio is 2000:1 (2000 applications, 1 callback).

I wanna know more about this "time to service a dude"

The problem is that these companies have gotten too big and powerful. They can do whatever they want, even when it's dumb and wrong, they still win. The people need to take their power back.

I work at a place that the better engineers churning out more code using is pushing out the OK and mid range programmers. There will be programming jobs just not many programming jobs. There have been hundreds already fired due to mass gains in automation. For once I'm glad my role is not as of dedicated software developer.

Anecdotally I lost my job in May and just got a new one with a 30% pay bump. Had constant interviews and recruiting calls for two months

That's a vision centered on big US tech. Yes, it finally matured and there is no more eldorado. Yes, junior developer might soon not expect getting 120k annual salary on first job. But if you focus on the world instead of the microcosm of silicon valley, you will realize that 50% of companies are still using basic document/excel for most of their processes. There is still plenty of room for developers to automate. Those companies are not doing it because of the cost, or lack of SaaS solution for their specific case. As developers start to flow looking for job, overall cost will decrease leading to new open positions. Of course it means developers entry salary will get lower, but a 3x, 5x or 10x developer will still have a great career with great income. I'm zero worried for those who graduate in CS degree for at least 10 years, even with AI raising.

Jonathan's takes always resonated with me greatly. And even though most people dismissed his opinions and worldviews, somehow those same people look back on his takes and concede how much of a visionary he is. So, to all the software engineers out there, I highly recommend watching Jonathan's videos to get a different point of view than the status quo. Keep coding and keep blowing everyone.

It's happening now. My company just laid off a 1000 people a month ago. And they're gonna hire back offshore people at 50% less pay to backfill.

As IT consultant i say, most companies driven by profit, technology is the tool not the goal. Startups looking always for product delivery. Big companies they look at shares price. Middle companies they look for the long term contracts. We are reaching the point in software, where we have software almost for everything, market saturation and with it comes the need to manage old code base better than it was before. As result you need you dont need so much developers, you need big data analyst more to predict future market demands. Finally people should learn new stuff constantly.

however it goes with cs, it would be better than me continuing with my linguistics degree.

"everything I know about this I learned from the all in podcast" Cool, disregarding everything you say

For those in the US, just going to say. Got a state govt developer job few months ago as my first FT dev job out of college. It isn’t glamorous, but i’m getting to lead the tech stack transition (I fought for no SPA JS framework, focus on BE). Lots of freedom and responsibility. No chance of layoffs. TC = $10Xk in mid col city. Live well beyond my means (rent $400/m). I will transition to tech industry when the time is right. But the whole narrative that tech is dead is dumb. It’s just speculative tech is on cooldown rn. Look for the narrow path.

Software specifically has also been one of the only fields recently where a degree is no longer mandatory. There has been a huge uptick in bootcamps, and even people transitioning from other fields into Software Engineering. I know many people in their late 20s or 30s who completely pivot their career to software. This isn't the case for a field like Electrical Engineering. There is a much bigger barrier to entry and a degree is mandatory for almost all EE jobs. In general This is in large part to the fact that all one needs to start learning SW and computer science is a computer, nothing else. People are always looking for the easy way out and would rather go to 6 month bootcamp than spend 4 years in school. So on top of all the recent graduates looking for jobs, there are also people who chose to pivot careers that are looking for jobs. Although I imagine this will eventually change as there is news of more layoffs and the difficulty of finding entry level jobs. This will lead less and less people to pursue computer science/software as a career. No one wants to go to school for 4 years and struggle with finding a job and job security.

Why people try to argue that the field isn't oversaturated has always been thoroughly perplexing to me. The arguments I've heard have always been semantical in nature, and have always moved their goalposts. IE: "Weeeelllll....software development IS in demand, it's just only in demand at the mid and senior levels", which was then moved to "welllll, it IS in demand, just only at the senior level", to where we are now, which seems to be "well, everyone has a hard time now, but look at what the bureau of labor statistics projects..." We honestly should have been screaming this stuff from the rooftops years ago.

It will be amazing to watch all the schemes enabled by a zero interest rate environment for over a decade unravel in a spectacular fashion.

since there was a shortage of developers before, surplus is going to solve the problem

Software development is a lot more. Software makes planes fly, nuclear power plants run, medical devices work etc. Software is in your fridge, the electrical grid and is used every time you pay. The telecom industry is running on billions of lines of code. If silly apps go bankrupt there are still massive numbers of jobs. The amount of code to make an aircraft carrier run is far greater than a silly startup.

3:30 Can someone tell me which podcast he is referring to? I can't hear the name well.

People laughing at Elon for firing half of Twitter. And the backlashes of his actions are pushing it towards bankruptcy, directly or indirectly. But I have no doubt in my mind most of the Twitter staff actually do no work. You can't have 7000 people working on an internet forum with no features other than tweeting. And these people get paid a lot like 250k a year by doing absolutely no work. Not hating on those people since it's "blame the game not the player" kind of situation. No one should reject an opportunity like that and there is no reason to not do so.

The issue is cost of borrowing capital. The issue is not jobs, per se. The option always exist to self-employ, or create a startup. The issue is access to funds in order to not starve while doing so, and to fund the business growth. Some unmet human need will always exist for software jobs to need to fill, and that’s because as humans our satisfaction lies in fluctuating levels of dissatisfaction with life over time. So, no the comparison to autoworkers is not reasonable because Detroit workers needed to go into someone else’s plant, to operate their machines, and output a single car at a much slower rate and requiring many more workers along the chain of production. The issue is cost of borrowing; interest rates; the Federal Reserve needing to tame the rate of inflation under control.

"Everything I learned about this I learned from the All-In Podcast"

The situation is even worse, because tech jobs, by their very nature, not only automate other jobs but also themselves.

I agree with the nukes part, its crazy how human history works

That was the music from Braid! Love the game and soundtrack. What language would you recomend as a first programing language nowadays in terms of demand?

Nah. First, industry matures and stabilizes. And years of overdemand and hype resulted in skewing economic bill and companies growing layers of fat like excessive HR, happines managers, Scrum Chaplains. Management got so ineffective as was running the project, that only way to manage it was to scale headcount up (which in most cases didn't help). Now, when this overlapped with generic slowdown.... there's panic, because most of industry doesn't know anything but excessive abdundance.

Drive a bus!!! There is no ovetsaturation in bus/truck driving and it's an easy job. And one could avoid worrying about whether the jobs are available or not.

Queue Theory... Reminds me of my back log of uploads.

ye, can't disagree with anything here. "no particular skill, like generic frontend or backend" him taking a dig at frontend or backend devs is, to me, the same as a material scientist taking digs on contruction works for just putting it together..... ok..go build a trading dashboard / commerce site, john, also cheaply, on the web and opens on a mobile within the same year..... we can't all spend a decade fkn around in Jai

Many of us knew it, when they started opening the floodgates, setting up all kinds of bootcamps and inviting everyone and their mothers to become developers i knew then the demand wasn't going to keep up and wages were going to nosedive. Used to be a relatively rare profession, that took a college degree to engage in, demand grew fast and people thought it would just keep growing exponentially, nowadays it's something your former hairdresser does after a 4 week free bootcamp from some company lol. I agree with others that there is always work for people who are experienced and have relatively uncommon skills in techs that aren't popular with all the kids and the diversity folks, the crash is really a junior crash, which was entirely predictable.

At 3:25, he mentioned a podcast, could you please spell it for me, can't find it?

the mental gymnastics in the comments are more amazing than those in the video

Seed stage, low burn rate... take the 3 months severance and bonus to build a decently innovative game with a growth oriented revenue model?

Yes it super crashes from here. Fed will keep raising rates for 2 or 3 years, we have yet to see the big bubble burst.

Guys this is called a business cycle. Honestly all developers should be forced to take a year of business or economics classes.. maybe they could make more profitable companies

"Called it 2 or 3 years ago"? (so 3 to 4 years before now?) The writing was on the wall for a full decade...

I’ll say this because it’s the truth and no one wants to talk about it. The problem is we have too many foreigners involved in American domestic interests and software development particularly in the United States. We have an oversaturation of Indians who have literally moved over to America training for just one career field IT. Indians as well as now Europeans and even those who have been around for a while from China or destroying the IT market in America through oversaturation and it has thinned out the job market amongst many other issues as formerly mention by others. It is one of the very few career fields where you can work remote and not have to hold accountability to a product in person like you do with medicine, engineering, law and in many regards education. The other problem with IT is that you can have a very smart high school kid spend one summer in Boot Camp learn JavaScript and literally out code someone who’s been doing it for 25 years that would never happen in law, medicine or education as past experience always builds on your present experience. This is also why ageism is a real thing in IT but rarely found in any other industry. After spending 25 years in his career field I would never recommend anyone going into software development. Good luck competing with tens of thousands of other software developers when you’re in your 40’s, 50s and 60s.

You gotta set up a couple scenes on obs man. One for camera, one for screen with a thumbnail of the camera, and one maybe just the screen. Then you just click on the scene and you have the mic, camera frame, and monitor preset to your preferences and you can switch between them easily. It's really quick, just try adding a scene and switching between the 2.

I think the pandemic really changed things - 1) many people went back to school (and knew tech was accelerated for good pay) 2) $10 trillion printed out of thin air. All the tech companies started layoffs the last 2 years. The magnificent 7 were sucking up all competition, but AI kind of changed that but now that we have AI it seems like normal devs have 2x'ed output and menial tasks are automated. Those new/mid level devs are now mid/senior level and starting their own companies and don't really want nor need junior devs. Finally, China, India and Europe are popping out engineers left and right due to globalization, especially the former 2. I think coding is a even a requirement in India around 6th grade. Now we're here.

It’s pretty silly to claim victory at this juncture when employment in tech is far above pre pandemic levels.

This guy cloaks bull crap in quasi complex analysis. Dude, right or wrong, your breakdown is so full of false objectivity its funny. False bullwhip effect? Do you truly understand the bullwhip effect? Seems not for you to use it in this context. It goes far beyond this simple supply and demand analogy. Again I'm not saying the tech industry will or will not collapse. I'm just pointing out high quality click bait. I tend to think this is a cyclical phenomenon we're seeing based on many factors such as the influx of new techs flowing into production; seems job demand will pickup once the industry finds new ways to create demand (capitalism, folks). Anyways, cocksure posture is an annoying quality among those who can't speak with proper capacity on the matter. But hey, bs sells these days.

over rep of certain "work force"

Even the toilet has a flush app and people are buying it. So ..

US army recruiting problem will solve itself

How many years do you think Salesforce has?

The people getting fired on the big platforms are not engineers. Those jobs are marketing and managing positions, filled with women between 20 and 40 who are the daughters of politically influential people. Such women have posted many instagram videos of their workday which consisted mostly of free food, alcohol, and leasure activities which are provided for them at the companies. The whole thing was a daycare center for surplus elites. The senator sleeps well knowing his daughter has a "job" which gives her a regular routine and makes her feel useful, but doesn't put stress on her. He will make sure legislation does not hurt that company. The bank CEO who's daughter works at Twitter will make sure Twitter gets large loans with defacto negative interest rates. However, with a high fed rate, defacto negative interest rates will be impossible, and if it keeps rising, it's only a matter of time until engineers will be effected too.

So this channel is just fans Blowing Blow's microsd? 😅

Thanks.

Throw all the concepts about money away. How can I take what you and I know and help kids with Autism. My daughter I fear will have a life of hardship after I die. I fear I can't give her the means to make it. I feel video games, music and art will be a way to help her but I just can't make a breach to connect to her to the world on the outside. Please help with some words you think would make an impact.

Is Blow just the latest 'high priest' of the programming caste? It's high time to bring those excessive wages down with simplification and automation :-)

Spoiler: maybe

i got 7 years experience in iOS development and i cant get a job for 4 months now in my vacation-like lifestyle i got into meditation and other esoteric stuff and it dawned on me also Now programming is good for impressing women obsessed with their iPhones, that's it if i want to get something good in life i now have to step up to product designer and stop focusing on code, it's a useful skill to have like carpentry, plumbery or electrician stuff, but you cant make tons of money from it like you are used to. Getting a stable job is not an option also, you go indie or you get fired over some bad news. Its not pleasant to learn new skills, when you thought you are golden for life, but the thrill of learning is what got us all into programming.

Yes everybody, there is a crash in tech jobs. We're not just telling you this to help suppress supply and keep our own salaries higher ;)

Good. I was never interested in web developer jobs.

the end of adult daycare

It is short-term crisis. It will be good again in a few years.

Tech jobs are sadly over-paid and companies throw bodies at the issue of quality, which doesn't always fix it. Depressingly it looks like all tech issues will be solved and sold by billion dollar companies, and remove the need for smaller developers. Concentrating power in a few, and starving the rest of us from experience and skills. But I already have the degree so, I'm kinda stuck here now. No time or money to do otherwise.

Bro stepped out of his lane into something he doesn't really understand well. It's a first-order take.

This was both boring and stupid

Most workers who mostly dont do much work will have a quick reality check.

I wouldn't take too much economics advice from JB, obviously a smart guy but just regurgitating talking points from podcasts isn't particularly insightful. There are still jobs, they're just for seniors. That can't go on forever. Additionally, economies go up and down when the economy turns do you think tech is going to grow faster or slower than other industries? I did and would still bet on tech.

Is this guy on Windows!?!?

Seems like it’s a crash of newbie jobs and wannabe coders, still work out there who know more than leet code and specialized

Most software isn’t technology? WHAT??

I had problems focusing on the content because every phrase of the video ended with ‘right’ and somehow I found this very annoying / distracting… you don’t need to request confirmation on every phrase that you say. There is nobody to answer anyway.

What BS is this? I've been in the software industry for 25 years now. We always, even when we hire ppl, at any time, have at least 15 job offers going, which is a lot considering company size (about 150 employees). Even during Covid and, even now when state of the current economy is worrisome. So I call BS.

I don't know man, Jonathan Blow is like Andrew Tate of Tech.

nope he wsnt

There are plenty of jobs. What are you talking about? I guess you guys don't know where to look.

I really tried, right? to get through this video, right? but then, right? had to *sniff* stop, right? when he tried to *sniff* argue, right? that "tech" right? is all hinged on *sniff* VC, right?, meaning, right? he has bought, right? into silicon valley's *sniff* fart-huffing, right?

the comments section is almost 300 unemployed jblow fanboys shouting in glee about how the tech market is "collapsing" meanwhile stocks are up and companies are still hiring en masse... 😆keep watching youtube videos and listening to jblow complain about software, i'm sure it will work out for you all! 😃

There is AI. There is algorithms. And there is interfaces. HTML is the new assembly language of interfaces.

He means front end css developers 😮

The churn is because of Web3 tech. There will a crash but not a super crash sort of thing. The tech sector will bounce back even higher when web3 tech finally becomes mainstream by 2026.

to the covid hiring and bust, he answers no, then proceeds with an explanation that contradicts his "no" answer, then admits to not knowing a whole lot THEN references a podcast that starts off with Elon Musk worship lol jonathan blow, there is a reason why you fell off.

WE DIDN'T LISTEN!

bad

web developers are cattle