Expected Values, Main Ideas!!!
Рет қаралды 181,185
Күн бұрынExpected values are part of the foundation of statistics and the reason why casinos don't go out of business all the time. Here, we walk through two examples that explain the concepts behind Expected Values and its fancy looking notation. BAM!
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0:00 Awesome song and introduction
5:09 Calculating an Expected Value
8:02 Expected Value notation
10:30 A more complicated example of Expected Values
#StatQuest #Statistics #ExpectedValue
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Support StatQuest by buying my book The StatQuest Illustrated Guide to Machine Learning or a Study Guide or Merch!!! statquest.org/statquest-store/
@adolfocarrillo248 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you for sharing your knowledge. This one was clear as the Ganges river, I mean where the main stream rises, near the Himalaya Mountains.😉
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
@@adolfocarrillo248 Thanks!
@therealpattypooh Жыл бұрын
Just purchased my copy of Guide to Machine Learning. The first time I saw a video of yours was just some days ago, it was about PCA, and I couldn't believe I understood its concepts. You're exceptional. Thank you, Josh, I'm just addicted to your videos; they keep me motivated!.
@statquest Жыл бұрын
@@therealpattypooh Wow! Thank you so much for your support! BAM! :)
@efunchen Жыл бұрын
Actually 100% of people in StatLand have heard of Troll 2 because you went around and asked everyone if they've heard of Troll 2 :)
@statquest Жыл бұрын
:)
@satwiktutor 6 ай бұрын
bammmm@@statquest
@Mr_ScrufMan 5 ай бұрын
@@satwiktutorquite possibly triple bammm
@apah 3 жыл бұрын
I binged your Statquest stat fundamentals and just finished it. Can't express how much it has helped me build a sense and create a solid base for my ongoing data science masters. The older i grow, the more i realize that in some areas of life, it is best to treat adults like the children they actually are in these specific areas. Unbelievably efficient. You're an amazing teacher who deeply understood how much repetition & maintaining a trail of thought is key (+ bite sized format). I managed to grasp an in depth understanding of most concepts with rarely if ever having to rewind thanks to the number of times you repeat and synthesize key notions. THANKS JOSH !! (Also you're hilarious, and i genuinely love your music and overall vibe, i been going through rough times health & study wise and just can't believe how you made my week, and how you made me enjoy learning probas/stats again) Cheers ♥
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Wow! Thank you very much! I'm really glad to hear that my videos are helping you. I also hope that your rough times will come to an end soon! :)
@MADaniel717 3 жыл бұрын
I like the concept of statland
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Hooray!!!
@cwtrain 3 жыл бұрын
Statistics at 10pm on a Sunday!? You better believe it! Woo! _buckles up_
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Bam! :)
@mhdamayri2529 2 жыл бұрын
I got very curious about Troll 2 and looked it up on the trivia part of the IMDB page it says : "The entire cast went to a casting call hoping to be extras, and ended up in lead roles." You can just imagine for yourself how the trailer looked like.
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
bam! :)
@danspeed93 2 жыл бұрын
Explaining clearly the expected values … I clearly understood them. Well done your mission is accomplished!
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@ayomikunoyenuga821 Жыл бұрын
I already watched a video before this one to explain what Expected Value meant but when I came across Statquest, I knew I had to definitely watch this video I wasn’t disappointed. Your real-life adaptions for statistical concepts are really engaging, Josh! Kudos!
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Thank you! :)
@aysenurfidan1122 Жыл бұрын
As someone who started to learn to code, and then data analysis and now dying to learn about ML in her 45 without any relevant background, your videos are life saver! I can understand all and I am enjoying it! You make me want to learn more. Thanks a lot!!!
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Hooray!!! :)
@ScottEdwards2000 3 жыл бұрын
Great video. Can't wait to understand the n-1 thing. I've been waiting to understand that for a long time!
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Hopefully we'll get there soon! :)
@physicsfaith 3 жыл бұрын
You are going to be disappointed... Its a mathematical fact based on the degrees of freedom. What does that mean? If I told you 10 numbers added to 100, do you need to know all 10 numbers or with 9 do you know what the 10th must be because the sum told you to last bit of information? Its going to be just like that here.
@ScottEdwards2000 3 жыл бұрын
@@physicsfaith cool I'd love to hear more. It's interesting that only the standard deviation needs to be divided by n minus one not the mean
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
@@physicsfaith It's related to that, but the actual derivation is pretty complex.
@evanstoid 2 жыл бұрын
@@statquest attempting to understand the concepts of degrees of freedom and the intuitive understanding of why we need a smaller denominator for estimating the sample variance has only deepened my understanding of my ignorance of those concepts.
@chrisjm80 3 жыл бұрын
Very clearly explained, thank you! Looking forward to the other videos in this series! StatSquatch FTW! 😄
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
BAM! :)
@kimiko495 5 ай бұрын
I wish professors in universities taught in this way. Thanks for making statistics so accessible. I felt very frustrated when I came here but now I am motivated to learn.
@statquest 5 ай бұрын
BAM! :)
@nicolasabboud8577 10 ай бұрын
Your method of explaining concepts is unique. You made me love probability and statistics. Thank you a lot. 🌷
@statquest 10 ай бұрын
Thanks! :)
@alainleclerc4523 Жыл бұрын
isthere a better teacher than you on earth? i don't think so. you are absolutly amazing!! you master the art to make complicated things easy and pleasant. you are so wonderful!! thank you very much for all your efforts in those videos. each one is a gem!! be blessed!!
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much 😀!
@just_a_viewer5 Жыл бұрын
adore your videos so much, sir. thank you for helping me change my attitude towards this subject. may you get all the happiness you want
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Thank you very much! :)
@kevinding1204 Жыл бұрын
This is super helpful thank you soooooooooo much. I tried to read the textbook definition and it was way too boring/complicated to understand (doesn't explain enough) while your video just makes everything much clearer for me. Thanks!
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Glad it helped!
@arc7244 2 жыл бұрын
I can't thank you enough! I owe you a lot... The world needs teachers like you 🙂
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you! :)
@cananakca1408 2 жыл бұрын
BAM!!! I am hooked on your videos! You make it so easy for anyone to understand.
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Hooray!
@jaquelinemoreira7385 2 жыл бұрын
it's finally clear for me what the expected value means in practical. i'm amazed for it, Thank you so much!
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Hooray!!! BAM! :)
@jasonfaustino8815 2 жыл бұрын
THANK YOU! You really are a lifesaver. Wish all educators have your “teach it to a 5yo” approach. I really appreciate you showing the cryptic formulas and then explaining it to me like 5
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@justingomez9615 4 ай бұрын
Bro, where was this channel all my life, cant believe I'm now stumbling upon this channel. Great Great style of teaching 👍
@statquest 4 ай бұрын
Thank you!
@yoshitareddy4137 3 жыл бұрын
BAM!! You are the best!! Thanks a lot, your videos have been very helpful ❤️
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Glad you like them!
@pptmtz 4 ай бұрын
Great job man, greetings from México City, you explain very clearly and the "translation" to fancy notation allows me to better understand some academic papers.
@statquest 4 ай бұрын
Muchas gracias!
@teosurch 3 ай бұрын
Thank you, so clear explanation and an example about the usefulness of the expected value with the calculation of a bet profit!👍
@statquest 3 ай бұрын
Glad it was helpful!
@apah 3 жыл бұрын
BAAM it's finally here ! Wuan wuan .. can't wait for part 2 & 3 (initially came for the n-1 thing :p)
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
:)
@raduandreicosmin 3 жыл бұрын
Looking forward to part 2! Continuous expected value is something I've been struggling to find a comprehensive, easy to understand explanation on.
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
That should be coming out next week.
@sxx2491 Жыл бұрын
dude you saved my life once again with your clear explanation and the proper example
@statquest Жыл бұрын
DOUBLE BAM! :)
@AJK-a2j00k4 5 ай бұрын
The moment he says "it's time for Shameless self promotion" lololol!
@statquest 5 ай бұрын
bam!
@janilayturatkhankyzy1321 Жыл бұрын
Thank you Josh, the way you explain is a masterpiece!
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Thank you! :)
@numberexplorerchannel1827 2 жыл бұрын
Million Baaamss. You just made all expected value confusions so cleeaarr. Salute👌
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you! :)
@blackmeteorite-rj3vw 2 ай бұрын
bro thank you for all that effort to simplify things
@statquest 2 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@mixalisk.5413 3 жыл бұрын
Josh hello from Greece!!! Thank you for all of your videos. Could you please consider making 1 or 2 statquests about time series? No matter how much I searched i couldn't find something comprehensive
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
I'll keep that in mind.
@mereraK 5 ай бұрын
I saw a genius here today; he explained complex concepts in simple way. Thanks!
@statquest 5 ай бұрын
bam! Nice rhyme!
@Veto2090 10 ай бұрын
StatSquatch knows there's a Troll 2 viewing party happening at the local theater and he's about to fleese us
@statquest 10 ай бұрын
BAM!
@vinitbipinjain 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for an amazing video and the pdf!
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
You are welcome!
@tayyabhussaintahir 3 жыл бұрын
You are the best, please keep making these wonderful videos.
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you! Will do!
@LeCassiopeia 2 жыл бұрын
I love you for creating this. This helps me so much.
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
I'm so glad!
@skysummer1586 3 жыл бұрын
Exactly what I need right now!!! Thank you so much!
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Glad I could help!
@kendesmarais9018 Жыл бұрын
Josh you are the best! Thanks so much for your helpful videos!
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Glad you like them!
@zahraeftekhar3308 3 жыл бұрын
Great video! looking forward to other parts! Could you please also do a video on Dirichlet distribution and latent Dirichlet allocation. I am struggling with them these days :( that would be awesome!
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
I'll keep that in mind.
@MarwinMachay 3 жыл бұрын
Amazing video! Thanks for making stats clearer to us :) Question: the expected value should be the same either sampling with or without replacement, right?
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
I believe so. The idea is "what do we expect, on average".
@TrungTran-dp3ct 2 жыл бұрын
hey Josh, Thank you for all of your videos. Better than other online courses/resources, and it's totally FREE. You are GOD!
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Wow, thanks!
@miguelcabrera9682 3 жыл бұрын
Awesome video. Thanks!
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Glad you liked it!
@rajns8643 11 ай бұрын
The explanation was as brilliant as expected :)
@statquest 11 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@abdullahshahid9051 2 жыл бұрын
This is the best stats channel easily
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@faresmhaya 7 ай бұрын
I can't believe that I was never explained this concept in school. I memorized the name, I memorized the formula again and again every time I needed to use it, only to forget it afterwards, but I never understood the how and why. It's such a shame.
@statquest 7 ай бұрын
I hope the video was helpful.
@faresmhaya 7 ай бұрын
@@statquest It certainly was! Thank you for the work that you keep doing, and happy holidays!
@stephenmaharaj5230 3 жыл бұрын
Useful and fun. Thanks.
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks! :)
@anuragbisht1200 Жыл бұрын
Statsland growth of population is quite significant from "conditional prob." video to this one 😄
@statquest Жыл бұрын
bam! :)
@adnanornab5134 4 ай бұрын
You explained beautifully. Thank you.
@statquest 4 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@praveerparmar8157 3 жыл бұрын
Super duper like for the video. Pity on the Statsquach 😀
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Hooray! :)
@farukapece Жыл бұрын
Thank you very much for your very nice and clear explanation.
@statquest Жыл бұрын
bam! :)
@yorchais 3 жыл бұрын
Best explanation ever!
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Hooray! :)
@tristanv6202 2 жыл бұрын
I love these videos! They are perfect for understanding important fundamentals. One question tho... When making the bet you know you have 213 (N_total) people in StatLand. When you find the outcome of the first bet wouldn't you change the probability from the definite heard of (N_A) or not heard pile (N_B)? If so then shouldn't your expected value be different every time as you make the bet and is there a mathematical expression for what I just described?
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
I'm not sure how the outcome of the first bet changes whether or not people know about Troll 2. Can you clarify?
@gustavojuantorena 3 жыл бұрын
Great video! Thanks!
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks! :)
@anashaat95 Жыл бұрын
Clear explanation. Thank you.
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@julieyananzhu1134 3 жыл бұрын
Hi, Josh. Hope you can talk about mixed-effect model. And the pros and cons compare with GEE. Thanks!
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
I'll keep that in mind.
@bibekanandabhattacharjee952 2 жыл бұрын
Fantastic, superb !!
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Many thanks!
@koustubhmuktibodh4901 Ай бұрын
Wow! what a great explanation.
@statquest Ай бұрын
Thanks!
@h-s7218 Жыл бұрын
Great and awesome video ever !
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@vikat06 Жыл бұрын
Really good explanation!!
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Thank you! :)
@mysticalpotato2110 3 жыл бұрын
Hi Josh, please make a video on degrees of freedom.. Thanks
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
I would love to.
@ankitagrawalgeneral 3 жыл бұрын
Dear Josh, Thank you for creating great videos and uploading in KZfaq for us. I was watching your Logistic Regression video and I was struggling with cross terms between differernt features. Do you know any literature on how to include cross terms in the model?
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
I believe you are asking about interactions. Interactions are when two features can influence each other. Like you might have two different drugs that help reduce blood pressure, and when taken separately, that's what they do, but when taken together, you might end up with something completely different (like higher blood pressure or something else). That's an interaction and the "x" term accounts for that. Unfortunately I don't know of any good literature on the subject.
@ankitagrawalgeneral 3 жыл бұрын
@@statquest Thanks for the answer. Yes you got it absolutely right. I will check it. Can you cover Louvain and Leiden clustering in your upcoming videos. I want to hear from you about these techniques which are frequently used in single-cell community. Thanks a lot.
@catmeme4life220 2 жыл бұрын
Troll 2 is going to be the all I can think of during the midterm ... thanks...
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
:)
@misnik1986 3 жыл бұрын
excellent job
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you very much!
@monilcharola6873 Жыл бұрын
Your videos are awesome !!!
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Glad you like them!
@rishabhnarula1999 7 ай бұрын
great teaching, thank you sir. 👍😊
@statquest 7 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@pon-poncedie4963 2 жыл бұрын
thank god I'm desperate to learn what school is trying to teach me. This was very good, as I was confuse how to read what the Big E was.
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
bam!
@emanelsheikh6344 Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much 🙏
@statquest Жыл бұрын
You're welcome! :)
@deeedledeee 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks for the lottery system setup guide.
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
:)
@rashmik19 Жыл бұрын
Alone maths has never helped me to learn data science skills, it's a combination of maths, intuition and the physical significance of the concepts. I found all of them here on your channel.
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Hooray! I'm so glad my videos are helpful.
@rashmik19 Жыл бұрын
Awesome content.....BAM!!! BAM!!! BAM!!!
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Thank you! :)
@mohammedabrar2871 2 жыл бұрын
A great video, keep help[ing out!
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks, will do!
@Ra-pt6tx 2 жыл бұрын
Great Job
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@Vanadium404 10 ай бұрын
12:15 Stats squach is the worst gambler ever 😂😂
@statquest 10 ай бұрын
Totally!
@ChelseaaaL Жыл бұрын
Love the content. But I guess that we might lose the bet because in the survey, everybody kind of heard of the troll 2 in being asked the question have you ever heard of Troll 2😂😂😂😂
@statquest Жыл бұрын
bam! :)
@Andre_NS 3 жыл бұрын
BAM! Very good 👍
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you! 👍
@ichimatsu8422 2 жыл бұрын
"Make it look more cryptic" this man knows the struggle
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
bam!
@futbolscoop 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks , keep it up sir
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Will do!
@almonddonut1818 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
You're welcome!
@bebarshossny5148 2 жыл бұрын
lovely channel, subbed!
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Awesome, thank you!
@ericdanielasi5983 2 жыл бұрын
I sat through this and it's worth it.
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you! :)
@maryemeraghi9316 3 жыл бұрын
Thank you Josh Starmer for putting together this video. However, I have a problem with your hypothesis: Listen again between the timeline 3:40 and 3:45, The bet was: $1 if the next person they met has "heard of Troll 2" but then you went on to say that they will loose the bet if the next person we met has "heard of Troll 2" and you assigned (-1) as the outcome. This is a contrast to what the bet proposed initially. Please kindly explain
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
When you make a bet with someone, one person will win and the other person will lose. In this case, you and I are making a bet with StatSquatch. That means that if you and I win, then StatSquatch will lose and if you and I lose, then StatSquach will win. Now, in this case, if the next person we meet has "heard of troll 2", then StatSquatch will win $1 and we (you and I) will lose $1. Because we will loose $1 (because we lost the bet to StatSquach) and StatSquatch will win $1 (because they won the best against us), I put -1 to represent you and I loosing $1.
@yitanglu6039 3 жыл бұрын
Could you make an album collecting songs in your videos? Love those songs.
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Bam! :)
@rishithashenal4048 10 ай бұрын
If you asked everyone if they had heard about the Troll 2 movie before, then the next time you are asking everyone has heard of it.
@statquest 10 ай бұрын
:)
@rungrawin1994 11 ай бұрын
Love your explanation! Can you explain about LoTUS plsss.
@statquest 11 ай бұрын
I'll keep that in mind.
@playerdreamer181 2 жыл бұрын
DUDE THIS IS SO COOL
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@duy-nq 4 ай бұрын
Just have the interview a few days ago, guys! They ask me the same type of question like the one in this video @@ and I'm fail to answer. Now I understand why... lol
@statquest 4 ай бұрын
Thanks for the tip! Hopefully you’ll do better next time.
@futureisnow5446 Жыл бұрын
Great man.🦁
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@vijayendrashrivastava9178 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks very nice.. helpful
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@bablu_0k 10 ай бұрын
Dudeee... statsquach sure love to take risks 😂
@statquest 10 ай бұрын
bam! :)
@mbs8249 Жыл бұрын
Thank you
@statquest Жыл бұрын
You're welcome!
@setarehbakhshi6047 Жыл бұрын
I loveeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee your teaching method.
@statquest Жыл бұрын
Thank you very much! :)
@momentum742 3 жыл бұрын
best person to learn math from
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@govamurali2309 3 жыл бұрын
Waiting for Stat quest on degrees of freedom❤
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
One day it will happen! :)
@sharme_ 3 жыл бұрын
Super BAM!!!
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
:)
@TheFobJang 2 жыл бұрын
Loved it! And poor StatSquatch
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@christopherlauw1570 2 жыл бұрын
i love your videos
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@bob_bobsen 2 жыл бұрын
Loved the sly comment about textbook clarity at 08:10
@statquest 2 жыл бұрын
:)
@ptxsv8705 Жыл бұрын
Omg this helps me understand so much quicker
@statquest Жыл бұрын
bam! :)
@ccuuttww 3 жыл бұрын
Hey can u talk about the E[ . ] sometimes it has MU~X subscription which I think is conditional Expected value can u teach us how to read it?
@statquest 3 жыл бұрын
I'll look into that.
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