CURRENT CONDITION OF EL-NIÑO: Neutral threshold (transitioning into La-niña threshold)
WEEKLY AVERAGE: 0.170°C (Neutral threshold) ↑ by 0.044°C.
3-MONTHS AVERAGE: +0.255°C (Neutral threshold) ↓ by 0.042°C.
CURRENT CONDITION OF MJO
The MJO now over South America-Africa (Phase 1) remained weak. All international climate models show that the MJO is likely to strengthen during Phase 1 and is expected to propagates eastward over the West Indian Ocean within week-2. This has also a potential to spawn tropical cyclone formation across the Caribbean and Mexico this week. In the Philippines, based on the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly shows a negative (positive) value indicating that wet (dry) weather is expected. The rainfall pattern in the next 7 days shows the possible strengthening of the southwest monsoon or the formation of a monsoon depression in the South China Sea which will cause rainy weather especially in the western part of the country.
SUMMARY:
ENSO Region currently over NEUTRAL condition despite of some additional increase over SST anomalies compared to last week.It is more likely to transition into La-niña condition starting June-August this year.
MJO meanwhile remains weak across Phase 1 with chances of strengthening over week-2.
IMAGE CREDIT TO THE FOLLOWING:
Weathernerds; Meteologix; CIMSS; RAMMBCIRA; SSEC/NOAA; Easterlywave; Dapiya; PAGASA; TIDE-FORECAST; WINDY.COM; JMA; JTWC; Tropical Tidbits; Typhoon2000.com; Thailand Met. Dept.; Time and date
#MJO, #Elniño, #PhilippinesWeatherForecast, #MetromanilaWeather, #LuzonWeather, #VisayasWeather, #MindanaoWeather
↓ ↑