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Ukrainian military and political analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko notes Russia will always have human resources, but faces serious equipment issues. He shared his opinions with Espreso TV.
"The Russians use two resources: human and technical, i.e. the mechanized component. Russia will always have human resources. They will always be able to replace this indicator, but the Russians have serious problems with equipment. The year 2024 may be pivotal for Russia regarding their ability to compensate for losses in their mechanized component. Starting in 2024, their capacity to offset these losses will decline, resulting in a deficit rather than maintaining balance. This will affect their offensive actions," Kovalenko explained.
According to the military and political observer with the Information Resistance group, Russia is currently conducting offensive actions, seizing territories. However, the effectiveness of these seizures, compared to 2022, has dropped 80 times, although the number of Russian troops has increased.
"Currently, the number of Russian troops in the combat zone is 530,000. But their effectiveness has significantly decreased due to the lack of equipment. If the Russian command sets the task to advance at any cost, then in certain areas they can advance mainly with infantry until the end of 2024 and in 2025, using human resources. Concentrating it in certain areas and organizing areas of constant meat assaults. But if we talk about a general offensive military operation with the capture of large areas, the Russians will not have enough resources for this in 2024," Kovalenko emphasized.
In 27 months of hard fighting, the Russian military has lost more than 15,500 tanks, fighting vehicles, howitzers and other weapons in Ukraine, along with hundreds of thousands of troops. The Ukrainian military’s own losses are a third as heavy.
And yet the Russian force in Ukraine is bigger than ever. “The army is actually now larger-by 15 percent-than it was when it invaded Ukraine,” U.S. Army general Christopher Cavoli, NATO's top commander, told the House Armed Services Committee. “Over the past year, Russia increased its front-line troop strength from 360,000 to 470,000.”
That’s possible only because the Kremlin drafted more than 300,000 men starting in late 2022 in addition to increasing bonuses for volunteers. At the same time, Russian brigades have curtailed basic training for new recruits in order to speed fresh forces to the front.
But these unprepared new recruits don’t survive very long on the front line. Lately, between 800 and a thousand Russians have been dying every day in the wider war, according to the Ukrainian defense ministry.
Russian soldiers die as fast as they arrive in Ukraine. The Estonian defense ministry concluded, in one recent study, that killing 100,000 Russians this year would permanently damage, if not collapse, the Kremlin’s mobilization effort.
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