Keeping it Simple | Ep.38: Are We Fourth Turning Japanese? Or Is It Different this Time?

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Keeping it Simple | Ep.38: Are We Fourth Turning Japanese? Or Is It Different this Time?

Рет қаралды 9,746

Күн бұрын

Neil Howe joins Mike and Harley for a discussion of cycles and saeculi.
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Пікірлер: 28

@nirvaanmeharchand5896 Ай бұрын

Great guest and interview. Thank you.

@ericlaukonen9911 Ай бұрын

Great insight and conversation.

@lwc1983 25 күн бұрын

Fascinating discussion!

@TheChinaPlay Ай бұрын

Every conversation with Mike Green seems like a debate over who is more intelligent. Do you want to be right or do you want to make money? Harley can't opine as eloquently as Green, few of us can, but the less he says the smarter he seems to me as Green doesn't know the first rule about digging a hole, to stop digging! Another interesting interview from Howe who is always refreshing to listen to.

@joshc3159 Ай бұрын

I enjoyed the lively debate. Respectful challenge and disagreement create clarity. If you genuinely have something of value to share, you'll welcome thoughtful criticism as if forces you to understand your own thoughts. If what you have to share is fragile, then yes, avoid debate.

@TheChinaPlay Ай бұрын

@@joshc3159 Okay, I agree with you to an extent. During my doctoral program I always welcomed debate on research and theory and thought it was a hallmark of a good academic program. However, I single out Green because he seem to be motivated by being right and looking smart over actual discovery of truth. I've been watching him on YT for years, and he ALWAYS has to have the last word and ALWAYS talks just as much or more than the guest. He is brilliant, no doubt, but at some point the lack of bedside manner gets old.

@paulbellefleur1115 Ай бұрын

Fantastic

@TheRealLanceCummings Ай бұрын

Harley, you're absolutely right that cycles are global, but at the same time country specific. Demographics (no surprise) is the huge driver. If you haven't, please read "End Times" (not a religious tome) by Peter Turchin, a proponent of something called 'Cliodynamics'. Agree or not, it's an interesting theory of cycles.

@scottdavis5749 Ай бұрын

Wow he is correct on GenX . 55 year old and latchkey kid. I was not overprotective but didn’t give my kids the freedom I had. I just didn’t want them doing and making some of the mistakes I did.

@user-ks4sq8du3k Ай бұрын

Social engineering is what explains it. 2 40-year periods. One of centralization split in blocks of 20 years. One of the order, then an unravelling of that order.. followed by another 40 years of decentralisation, split into 2 20 years. Order followed by a period of unravelling.

@George-jm4rn Ай бұрын

Mike once again deflects being wrong on inflation by ridiculing Harvey albeit in a good natured way. Even Powell has acknowledged his error, something arrogant Green can't bring himself to do.

@dudelit6482 Ай бұрын

Everything except gasoline is like 30 to 50% more expensive but there is and wasn't any inflation 😅

@megowopwop8545 Ай бұрын

so true, as smart as he is, humility is not a characteristic he's learnt yet.

@fbinformant Ай бұрын

Not as bad as the Peter Zeihan humiliation arch but still annoying 😅

@jamesdeininger3759 Ай бұрын

@@fbinformantI love Zeihan, but someone should make a compilation of all the times he said Biden would win the election 😂 He should stick to demography and supply chains lol

@harryj1081 Ай бұрын

arent inflation simply similar to physics phenomenon? overshoots and undershoot, unless stealthily manipulated by the money printers with higher highs and higher lows.

@TheRealLanceCummings Ай бұрын

It all comes down to how much elite overproduction takes place. Elite overproduction, compared to available positions for elites, *always* causes discontent. And as they say in the military, "Shit flows downhill." Ancient societies may have had (almost certainly did) less of a sense of linear progress (where everyone expects their lot to improve noticeably over time) than later, "modern" societies, but people in all societies (and all societies are pyramidal), are extremely sensitive to losing their social footing. In fact, people are much more sensitive to that than they are to some perception that they are not getting ahead of anyone else. "I may not be able to climb, but god help rulers if me and too many of my friends perceive 'slippage'."

@retvrn777 Ай бұрын

Overprotective parents show up in overprotective politics but checks and balances hurt rather than help

@seanwieland9763 Ай бұрын

11:26 Abe Lincoln the tyrant who suspended habeas corpus?

@TheRealLanceCummings Ай бұрын

An awful lot of seemingly anecdotal stuff said by Neil that just wouldn't hold up to any even cursory examination. For example, (talking about the 'G.I. Generation') "They were communal." Oh, really? They were incredibly tribal and racist, truth be told. This was the generation that, post-war, came home and red-lined huge chunks of American urban real estate, and who built superhighways smack through the middle of what wasn't deemed worth red-lining. Many of these "it was better back then" stories sound great. But the closer you look, the more you think, "Plus ça change." And it was *that generation, not the Boomers, who reacted so viscerally to Brown v Board of Ed, and to the Civil Rights Legislation that, LBJ correctly surmised, "... will cost us the South for as far into the future as I can see". It was adults, then, born in the 1920s and 1930s, who reacted like that. It was *that generation, born pre-war, that peppered the USA with "Impeach Earl Warren" billboards from coast to coast.

@devinwest3447 Ай бұрын

What generation of congress people wrote and passed the 1964 and 1965 civil rights amendments. Also what generation passed the civil rights amendments in the 1950’s when there were no protests demanding so. If you are talking about the south exclusively then your point has merit but i doubt thats what you mean.

@TheRealLanceCummings Ай бұрын

@@devinwest3447 Generations overlap of course. What you describe in the mid 60s is merely the older one giving way to a newer one. Civil rights amendments passed in the 1950s? Really? America was fighting a genocidal war against indigenous natives on TV then, mostly, and enforcing Jim Crow in the south.

@stan3028 Ай бұрын

came here to listen to Mike but he was not allowed to talk.. goodbye!

@dds9706 Ай бұрын

Sorry for dropping one of the worst words in English... yes, you've guessed it, the K-word... "Karl Marx." Reading Karl Marx (who was an economist after all) would probably shed more light on this conversation than bringing up sketchy notions such as "Generation X" or other similar concepts. People react to their environment. After WWII, the economy was booming, which led to "Peace, Sex, and Rock 'n' Roll." Today, this generation is indebted, facing global warming, the opioid crisis, the rise of AI, underpaid jobs, and exorbitant rents and house prices. No wonder this generation is anxious and depressed.

@thaaatheef Ай бұрын

historians would very much dispute this notion that we can reduce social changes into such "turnings" or cycles. &, In some ways, it becomes self-reinforcing to classify people & can even divide us further. simply reflect how often people use rhetoric like "oh well theyre a millenial" or "im gen z, its what we do!" I do find it useful to try & understand how various people interact with their environment during a given time, but I would simply place more emphasis on the environment personally I am genuinely baffled why so many in finance are attracted to his ideas in ways that they might even base their own investments along those lines...just very flimsy points