The jokes on them I bought 10 sheets of plywood. Gonna be rich boys!

I'll just stick to what works for me: Buy high, sell low.

Inflation is just like a hangover, just keep drinking and you won’t notice it

LOL, stock prices rising? Not when I'm the one picking them :)~ Seriously though, great video.

Bro you're blessing to us aspiring investors. Thank you for taking the time to do research and sharing your knowledge to us. This is just as good as reading finance books. I hope you keep doing what you're doing!

This is probably one of the better breakdowns of what CPI and inflation really mean and entail. Awesome video!

“Have faith in the fact that those companies will likely continue to grow” - definitely not the ones I have faith in.

Thank you for offering down to to earth and honest information. Your videos are always a welcome breath of reality compared to what most people are putting on youtube.

I think there is a simpler argument in favor of stocks during high inflation periods. Lack of alternatives. Yes, stocks may slow down their growth and even yield negative returns. But would those returns be worse than the ones of cash or bonds?

Great video as usual! I find it really funny that investors in developed markets have to learn what inflation is, because here in South America it's never really gone. It's truly another world entirely.

Another reason why most US Total Market Index Funds / ETFs are my favorite long term investment.

Thanks for the great points about inflation!

Fresh off just watching "Inside Job" this week - Martin Feldstein showing no emotions regarding unregulated credit default swaps causing the GFC was chilling & psychopathic.

Can you explain the repo operations by the FED? I tried looking into this and have some idea what's going on but it's hard to understand and I don't know 100% what it means for the economy as a whole

Excellent video! This has given me a better understanding of inflation that anything I've read before. Thank you for taking the time to make these videos! Very educational!

Just decided to enroll for the CFA. These videos are incredibly helpful. What are the chances that you will release CFA ‘study guides’?

The relation is between money supply and stock valuation. High inflation ( because of money printing + sometimes supply side) response is higher interest rates. When they go up they suck cash out of the system which translates into lower demand for everything. Stocks react preemptively with lower valuation of future revenue inflation adjusted. That’s why real rate of growth tend to be negative like in 1970s 8:53

Great video. Thanks for making me a confident investor Richard. Always good quality unbiased information put into simple terms!

2022 - hold my coffee ☕️ or beer…. 🍺

I know you're busy with little Henry and all, but your videos are the best and I wish there were more of them! Loved this one, thanks!

Hell yeah. We were waiting for it x)

Not concerned, I'm a Boglehead. "Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!" - Jack Bogle

No one can predict the future John Bogle: Stay the course

Great video. I love that you quoted actual studies in this one. Felt a bit more like a Ben Felix video there.

Great video! Thanks for making this content, one can really tell that a lot of time and effort goes into producing it.

As always with US economic problems, the amount of concern and doomsday speculation is way out of proportion to what's happening.

I love hearing you explain things. It’s crystal clear

You’re good. Thanks

Buying gold is dense right now, literally and figuratively

7.8% inflation?? That's a Tuesday in some countries.

Just remember, its not about timing the market, instead its all about the amount of time in the market.

Dude your channel is the best for mature investors

Thank you for an excellent explanation on inflation and how investors respond to the challenges it presents.

Isn't the cpi graph you showed at the beginning year-over-year? Meaning that inflation only went up by those percentages because the effects of the pandemic started ~12 months before April and May, causing prices to go down as demand for consumer goods decreased?

long answer: video short answer: buy the dip when inflation hits, and bet on inflation return to normal

Great video, Mr. Bagel!

I love your videos man. Thank you for the quality content and information :)

Guess I'll finally call that number on those gold commercials.

Love the Plain Bagel!

From 1975-1981 the dividend stocks were at its highest from 4-6%, currently we have the lowest overall dividend returns in the last 140 years at 1.5% or so. So if one invested in the S&P on top heavily dividend funds you would’ve pulled in positive. Plus CDs were paying 10-15% as mortgage interest rates climbed to 18% at its peak in 1981. It was a totally different market. House median prices were 30-50k but one will pay $700-800 or more mortgage for a 30 year fixed rate. Making a really nice salary of 20-25k a year. It was as like making 70-80k a year in today’s market. Most people don’t realize the mortgage interest rates when they say how houses were so cheap. Until 1990 interest rates didn’t go below 9-10% and in the 1990s it was 7-8%

For the time being, I'm going to load up on growth/tech stocks until the FED decides to raise rates. J Pow said the tapering will start to happen soon (in a few months) and rate hikes are expected to happen in 2023. So until then, I'll continue to load up on those positions. Maybe in a few months or so, I'll start adding to my high dividend yield positions again.

Two points: 1: The recent monthly inflation figures are distorted by the base effect and must be compared to pre-crisis levels to get a full picture. Think of it as a rebound back to trend and not as a divergence from the long term trend. 2: Growth in the money base does not always translate into inflation. Inflation is driven by volume and importantly, velocity. Inflation can be best described as too much money chasing a fixed amount of goods. However, the velocity at which money has been spent has been decreasing for decades and dropped sharply during the pandemic. Unless we see a reversal this trend high inflation is unlikely. Think about it like this if J Powell printed $100 trillion tomorrow and just left it in a dormant account, would that push up prices? The answer is no, he would first have to try and spend it.

Novice here! So if there's an outflow of money from the dividend space, and that lowers the price, wouldn't the yield increase accordingly? Also, assuming you're in the market for longer than the high inflation lasts, wouldn't this just mean you are buying the dividend stock for cheaper? I imagine the dividend paid in the interim will be worth less in purchasing power due to increased costs of goods.. But if the cost of the 'good' you intend to buy is just more of the dividend stock at this cheaper price, are you harmed by this?

You literally summed up economics and finance in one video XD - well done - so many concepts under 15 mins!

I will stay with companies with good business models like GME and AMC, thanks for advise :)

Great video. Thanks!

Note on higher used car sales: During downturns people tend to buy less cars, and when they do buy cars people often buy used cars.

No more corrections! 10 000 000 Sweaty retail investors are sitting in their moms basement ready to buy the dip! LMAO

Guy reminds me of the guy on better call Saul - the guy with the prized baseball cards. Lol

Very good coverage. Congrats on making another good video. (Was hoping to see more warning re gold though. Gold faces the danger of tapering.)

I'm sure inflation will ease. But I'm also sure the $400/month hike on childcare I've had to deal with this year is here to stay. No, I'm not panicking about increasing cost of living. But some of these hikes are devastating, budget smashing. You see your goals slip away right before your eyes. Shits fucked up, any way you look at it.

great video. I haven't seen anyone explaining DCF better than you.

The 5% figure is year over year growth, where this time last year, Inflation dipped by 2% to an all time low in 10 yrs. So, of course the YoY figure now would look high.

Lolz Plain Bagel is for noobs. As a Veteran Investor I know the best investment is the Nigerian prince who keep sending me emails.

Hey I know this is 2 years later so you probably won't read this comment but I would love it if you could make a similar video on volatility and maybe explain some models (if there are any) on how you can hedge volatility

I’m personally believing that a lot of this inflation is from cost push inflation. Goods like lumber have went up a lot in price. We also have the stock market going up a lot. When it comes to me personally I have some stocks that do well in higher interest rates and stocks that do well in lower interest rates, as I’m not too sure how things are going to play out in the long term.

How will inflation effect REITs?

Why is Gold the same price as in 2012? We printed trillions more and yet it doesn't affect Gold?

Ask anyone from Argentina if you'd like advice on how to handle inflation. We've sadly had 2 digit inflation for two decades by now.

Great Vid! loving the content

I think inflation will also hurt companies that have long term contracts, as the prices they can charge are fixed, but their costs will rise.

If you want to study inflation, then you HAVE to study Latin America, Brazil specially.

Please make an update about how inflation has moved since the making of this video. Currently sitting at stagnant inflation in CPI since June 2022, and PPI has declined in the same period. Give your take PLEASE.

Thank you for another interesting video! I like your new style of editing / effects :)

Thank you for the very interesting video!

Richard throwing down gems for us here

Great job! Fantastic video. Holistic approach rather than reductionist is the best.

You came at the right time!

sorry but care to explain the difference between "money supply inflation" and "price inflation"? 0:28 I've always thought "inflation" means things get more expensive

Good stuff mate, been definitely thinking about how inflation could affect my meme stock portfolio.

In summary, Just HODL

I'm surprised real estate wasn't mentioned. If you have a mortage your paying a fixed cost every year if inflation takes off your payment gets "cheaper"(Assuming your wages increase in line with inflation)

Thank you very much for this fantastic piece on Inflation!

Hey, I like your videos, and I found them fascinating. But I’m a non-native speaker, so I don’t get the whole idea since you’re speaking fast and no CC is provided. I will appreciate it if you consider adding a CC. I’m looking forward to learning from you more and more.

Great video!

Good topic 👍

your videos are great

my brain is wobbling like a bobble head after this video

I really love your content.

How long til I need to start buying inverse $SPY calls?

Its time to keep your real estate! It will only like inflation. Cash is bad atm.

Great video, your a good teacher dude

Thanks Richard. 🙂 Always well explained. 👍

so basically just dump lifesavings into dogecoin got it

The intro of the video is feeling a bit more relatable today. Hopefully inflation slows if the consumer recedes.

So what I’m hearing is that I should YOLO my life savings into crypto?

Interest rate hike is the worst enemy to the stock markets. It’s easy to imagine if there’s no rate hike, there would be no crash of the market, regardless of how much inflation we get.

Could you do a honest comparison of the eurozone vs the us? ..economic(currency )strength. They say we are better and safer in the eu. This is not true though? Since our interest rates have been lower than the US. For quite some time..

I consider the black to white contrast of the current (generally) overblown PE ratios (as a result non-existent interest rates and flooding money supply) with the PEs to be seen after upcoming increase of the interest rates & halting of the free money supply as a starting point to think on how its likely going to play out for stocks short to midterm.

TSMC and other chip manufacturing delays was a big hit. Nice to see more videos about inflaiton

Hmm thanks

There is a great Korrelation graph in Ben Graham's "The Intelligent Investor" showing that historically any Inflation between 0% and 5% was good or at least not bad for the market overall. Supposedly this is because a certain amount of (expected/usual) inflation gives companies the power to more easily raise prices themselves. Inflation upwards of 5% is bad but not terrible for the stock market historically, while inflation near or exceeding 10% as well as deflation is very bad for the market.

Yeah I just been adjusting my portfolio and calculating my risk. I'm not exiting the market yet I'm buying different sectors for the future. And cost averaging down.

Great video

In the 70s higher interest rates caused the cost of capital of many companies to exceed their ROIC hence the negative return: they destroyed more value than they created.

Just INVEST IN NIO

As a business student, I just want to ask if you can put your journal sources in the description? Great video as always.

hey richard, thanks for putting up baller content for noobs like me. because of you, i can finalize realize my dream of becoming a wall street shark

Just make sure you get a mortgage rate locked in before the fed raises rates. Everything going on with the stock market will be a wash

How about now? Should I unload stonks and buy that island?