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Linear Regression & Correlation Analysis used in Forecasting + Example in Microsoft Excel

  Рет қаралды 1,371

Operations & Supply Chain Management University

Operations & Supply Chain Management University

Күн бұрын

This video explains Linear Regression Analysis in Forecasting and how to do the calculation. It highlights the Correlation Coefficient (r) and the Correlations of Determination (r2), and then the video concludes with an example of how to create a linear regression model (scatter plot diagram) in Microsoft Excel. Content derived from from the Textbook "Operations Management, Sustainability and Supply Chain" 13th edition by Jay Heizer, Barry Render and Chuck Munson. Chapter 4 on Forecasting.

Пікірлер: 14
@gamer-1660
@gamer-1660 8 ай бұрын
GREAT VIDEOS 😁👌
@OperationsAndSupplyChain
@OperationsAndSupplyChain 8 ай бұрын
Great, glad you like them!
@jeevanks1622
@jeevanks1622 8 ай бұрын
Great video, very good explanation, but the videos can be shorter and quicker
@OperationsAndSupplyChain
@OperationsAndSupplyChain 8 ай бұрын
Hi Jeevan, thanks for the feedback! These full length videos were created for my students and cover all the content in each chapter of the textbook. I posted them online to see if other individuals would find them useful (which they have). I am currently creating new content specifically for KZfaq that will be more focused on specific topics and each video will be much shorter. You can expect to see those videos roll out the next few months. Thanks again for the feedback! I hope you subscribe to my channel and enjoy the new content when it is posted.
@ClashThenDash
@ClashThenDash 6 ай бұрын
I felt this was a good review for me since i haven’t brushed upon this subject in a while. A bit curious about how you are square rooting r^2 because all you are left with is just R in that situation. Square rooting r^2 is like putting a hat on a hat lol. Insight?
@OperationsAndSupplyChain
@OperationsAndSupplyChain 6 ай бұрын
Hi ClashThenDash (love the name), that's a good question! The R and the R^2 measure different things... The R measures the strength of the linear relationship between the independent & dependent variables. The R^2 is the percentage of the variation from the dependent variable to the independent variable. When you build the model in MS Excel, it will calculate the R^2. So you then have to take the square root of that to find the R (the correlation). I realize that seems backwards but it works out when you follow the steps & build a model in MS Excel. You have the R^2 and not the R.
@VivekSharma-lk8ek
@VivekSharma-lk8ek 2 ай бұрын
i have plotted the trendline, with displayed equation and R squred value. but i am not able to understand how can i forcast variable y for future, if i know trend of varibale x for future
@OperationsAndSupplyChain
@OperationsAndSupplyChain 2 ай бұрын
Hello Vivek, with a linear regression forecast you must have historical X and Y data to calculate the forecast for future periods. Additionally, the correlation analysis will measure the strength of that correlation between the X and Y data, but you must have both variables to do the analysis.
@VivekSharma-lk8ek
@VivekSharma-lk8ek 2 ай бұрын
@@OperationsAndSupplyChain thanks for clarification. i have historical data for both x and y for last 2 years, say 2022 and 2023 ( so both payroll and sales from your example) and i am also provided by the future data for variable x( payroll) for next 2 years ( 2024, 2025) . how can i forecast the vlaues for y for 2024,2025 using this data? thats the solution i am looking for
@OperationsAndSupplyChain
@OperationsAndSupplyChain 2 ай бұрын
Hi Vivek, you'd need to use a different formula if you only have the Payroll data. Here is the video that covers the Least Squares trend projection: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/ZqtlisaXsp2ugqs.html
@VivekSharma-lk8ek
@VivekSharma-lk8ek 2 ай бұрын
@@OperationsAndSupplyChain thankyou sir. so, it means from the line equation i can find out any value of y?
@OperationsAndSupplyChain
@OperationsAndSupplyChain Ай бұрын
Yes, that is correct. But - it will get less accurate the further out you try to forecast.
@VivekSharma-lk8ek
@VivekSharma-lk8ek 2 ай бұрын
hello, you did not explain step 3 ( from 13.17 sec) : how to calculate forecast
@OperationsAndSupplyChain
@OperationsAndSupplyChain 2 ай бұрын
Hello Vivek, thanks for your question. In this video I explain how to calculate the forecast starting at 3:07. Then, later in the video (around 13 minutes) I perform the Nodel Construction example in MS Excel. Since I had gone through the four steps earlier in the presentation I did not go through all of them again.
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