Рет қаралды 20,733
Investors piled in to stocks like Bunge (BG), CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS), Nutrien (NTR, formerly Agrium and Potash Corp), and Intrepid Potash (IPI), along with John Deere (DE) on a powerful idea: with soaring global populations and billions of new mouths to feed, our ag industries would struggle to keep up. To whatever extent we could ramp up crop production, it would be largely owed to our chemical and manufacturing industries, who would produce the fertilizers and farm equipment so desperately needed to feed a hungry world.
But investors have been disappointed, as large gains in these sectors have not been realized. Crop yields are at record highs, along with global farm output. Food prices are falling globally, except in North America and Europe where decades of central bank policy failures and fiscal mismanagement have resulted in high inflation.
How were our farms able to produce food supplies that were not merely sufficient, but in abundance and surplus?
Since 1980, the Earth has been turning green. The greening trend accelerated after 2000. Much of this greening has come from manmade activities, such as burning fossil fuels that result in high concentrations of atmospheric CO2.
A great deal this greening too, is due to industrial-scale policy changes in China and India. China pushed for high re-forestation, along with more efficient and larger farms. India also transformed much of its land mass into highly productive farms.
Climate scientists expect these greening trends to continue through the end of this century. The human population will peak far earlier than that, then begin to decline. With the crises fading away, is there a bull case to be made for these names, now?
Resources and links to referenced data:
Wall Street stock recommendations, 2011-2013:
seekingalpha.com/article/3317...
www.fool.com/investing/genera...
www.barrons.com/articles/fert...
www.thestreet.com/investing/o...
finance.yahoo.com/news/why-po...
Yuxi Circle explained www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/t...
China’s obesity problem www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-c...
John Deere braces for shop drop in farm tractor demand www.agriculturedive.com/news/...
NASA Atmospheric Study www.nasa.gov/technology/carbo...
Graphic, greening of earth since 1980 equal to 3x US freeboulder.org/greening-earth/
Human population growth forecast www.statista.com/chart/amp/28...
Historical prices for:
Rice tradingeconomics.com/commodit...
Soybeans tradingeconomics.com/commodit...
Wheat tradingeconomics.com/commodit...
Oats tradingeconomics.com/commodit...
Canola tradingeconomics.com/commodit...
Corn tradingeconomics.com/commodit...
Milk tradingeconomics.com/commodit...
Cheese tradingeconomics.com/commodit...
China spot prices for:
Soybeans www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-...
Corn www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-...
Wheat www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-...
White sugar www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-...
Rapeseed www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-...
Charts and financials for:
Mosaic (MOS) finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MOS&p=d
SQM (SQM) finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SQM&t...
Intrepid Potash (IPI) finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=IPI&t...
Nutrien (NTR) finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NTR&t...
CF Industries (CF) finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CF&ty...