Markets Weekly March 23, 2024

  Рет қаралды 10,625

Joseph Wang

Joseph Wang

Күн бұрын

#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
Global Cutting Cycle Begins
Are Financial Conditions Restrictive?
Home prices set to soar
00:00 - Intro
1:05 - Global Cutting Cycle Begins
4:39 - Are Financial Conditions Restrictive?
9:09 - Home prices set to soar
For my latest thoughts:
www.fedguy.com
For macro courses:
www.centralbanking101.com
My best seller on monetary policy:
www.amazon.com/Central-Bankin...

Пікірлер: 74
@Four_Eyes
@Four_Eyes 3 ай бұрын
Thanks Joseph. It's uncomfortable being irresponsibly long for so long, but your synthesis gives me assurance my strategy is prudent. 🙏
@masonsteed7835
@masonsteed7835 3 ай бұрын
I appreciate these videos more than you can imagine, thank you!
@DannyHensloweGooglePlus
@DannyHensloweGooglePlus 3 ай бұрын
I don't think I have ever heard Joseph talk about ANYTHING that could create downside risk to the economy or risk assets.
@Fedguy12
@Fedguy12 3 ай бұрын
Here's me telling everyone in December 2021 that stocks are going to get rekt in 2022 (which they did) kzfaq.info/get/bejne/fp-Gpbx51q3ZlWg.html
@BrandonLesco.
@BrandonLesco. 3 ай бұрын
Thank you for sharing. Financial education is crucial today to show incredible resilience and discipline in the volatile market, masterfully balancing strategy and insight for success. This dedication to continuous learning is inspiring...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.1BTC to a decent 15B TC in the space of a few weeks... I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
@BrandonLesco.
@BrandonLesco. 3 ай бұрын
She's often interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
@BrandonLesco.
@BrandonLesco. 3 ай бұрын
@Lindawilburn
@Curtissanchez1
@Curtissanchez1 3 ай бұрын
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Linda’s trade signal service.
@julianososa
@julianososa 3 ай бұрын
Trading with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investor s who have little or no time to monitor their trades.
@jeffreychandleton5794
@jeffreychandleton5794 3 ай бұрын
You never disappoint Joey. Continue to look forward to these every week. Thanks for the continued consistency.
@ChuckSwiger
@ChuckSwiger 3 ай бұрын
Thanks for countering all the doomers :) Almost sounds like, with the pressure to cut rates (Warren etc) and comment about 'restrictive', another possible 'transient' error about inflation earlier this year 2024. PCE Next release: March 29, 2024.
@chrisp9466
@chrisp9466 3 ай бұрын
Absolute killer vid, Joseph! The immaculate soft landing is upon us! Great pointer to the Chicago fed national financial Conditions index. I missed that one...but apparently the Chair has also 😅. Very informative as always. Thank you very much 😊
@AllNighterHeider
@AllNighterHeider 3 ай бұрын
Problems are puzzles. Affordability is a problem. To solve this problem, I partnered with a few other investors. We put our efforts together and completed the puzzle. I'm currently working on our rental and putting update videos on my channel. I would be honored if the Great JW would post a comment on one of them!! Don't know if you don't ask 😁 Thanks again JW
@Jeff__M
@Jeff__M 3 ай бұрын
Thanks Joseph!! 🇺🇸 you are the best! Always appreciate the insights! ⭐️
@nonexistent5030
@nonexistent5030 3 ай бұрын
Cites one factoid from ine homebuilder, but neglects to select another from a separate homebuilder. Lennar reports more and more buyers are showing increasing levels of debt burden and are increasingly struggle to be approved for mortgages. Selective attention is key in narrative ecknomics.
@detectiveofmoneypolitics
@detectiveofmoneypolitics 3 ай бұрын
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
@yodurk21
@yodurk21 3 ай бұрын
It blows my mind how eager the central banks are to cut rates & ease right now. Financial conditions never got very tight and inflation is not squashed. Half of the USA population has felt miserable trying to keep up with inflation. They are just divorced from reality, IMO, or otherwise just choosing to ignore it. "Number go up" does not equate to real wealth when inflation is still present.
@InvestingWithAdamK
@InvestingWithAdamK 3 ай бұрын
They are not divorced from reality. Inflation is coming down. The goal is not to cause a financial collapse to get to deflation. That is a terrible concept to continue to raise
@lbatti11
@lbatti11 3 ай бұрын
It's simple, the system is designed for the wealthy. The wealthy don't care about inflation since they hold significant assets that also inflate much faster. Do you think they care about paying $5 for a loaf of bread when one of their assets went from 1 million to 1.3 million? Stop thinking from a poor person perspective and think like the rich, then it will make sense.
@method341
@method341 3 ай бұрын
Inflation is at 3% and declining
@yodurk21
@yodurk21 3 ай бұрын
@@InvestingWithAdamKInflation has come down but it's not at the target and there's clearly evidence of it stagnating at 3%, which is not their target. Yet they are clearly trying to find an excuse to start a cutting cycle. Furthermore Powell completely dismissed the warmer inflation prints that came out the past two months, and with energy prices rising rapidly of late there is danger of an uptick. Joseph even said so himself in this very video. The Fed is way too overconfident that they've squashed inflation. They didn't do what is actually necessary because they let Yellen go on a spending binge the past 18 months while letting banks pig out on the BTFP. To be clear I'm not suggesting inflation is going to surge back up to 9% again, I'm just pointing out that there's too much easing already happening to reliably hit their 2% target and you could easily see it ticking back up in the wrong direction sooner rather than later.
@yodurk21
@yodurk21 3 ай бұрын
@@method341It has declined and is stagnating at 3% - not their target
@tonyl7142
@tonyl7142 3 ай бұрын
Thanks Mr Wan from Portugal 🇵🇹
@user-on3tf7rr7z
@user-on3tf7rr7z 3 ай бұрын
Good job as usual. Take care Joseph!
@Fedguy12
@Fedguy12 3 ай бұрын
Thanks!
@InvestingWithAdamK
@InvestingWithAdamK 3 ай бұрын
Couldn’t agree more. I do mortgages and have been saying similar about 10 year and spread in my blog. I expect the fed to cut very slowly and 10 year not drop much and people to not understand. Then I expect the yield curve to un-invert but the 10-year spread to the mortgage come in and mortgage rates drop a little. I don’t see 5 handles again unless there’s some issue in the economy. Otherwise I think mid to high 6’s is a good place to settle
@Fedguy12
@Fedguy12 3 ай бұрын
Thanks for the color!
@tastypymp1287
@tastypymp1287 3 ай бұрын
If approx 25% of home purchases are made outright with cash then that's not a good sign at all. There simply isn't that many people that can do that. So we are looking at either considerable downsizing (which might have a positive impact where equity is being released and the excess being spent in the real economy) or that the number of purchases made with a mortgage has significantly declined. To support this it's worth noting that the MBA Mortgage Market Index is well below average and at a level lower than the 2000 decline.
@AllNighterHeider
@AllNighterHeider 3 ай бұрын
I don't claim to be smart or a fast learner 😂. I just figured out credit spreads last night. It just clicked. Glad you covered them to confirm what clicked. Thanks JW
@clays7741
@clays7741 3 ай бұрын
Always awesome! Thank you!
@The_Laid_Off_Life
@The_Laid_Off_Life 3 ай бұрын
Very good analysis imo. I think the effects of immigration are actually understated in several ways....... more people = more consumption in basic goods initially In 3-4 years max, the consumption and increases will push into higher cost items/houses etc. household formation specifically. Housing prices on the secondary market: non builder & FISBO are declining and adjusting in my area. That said, even 1 rate cut and I agree, houses may begin to re-inflate again. This will be interesting to see how it plays out. Lastly, was at the outlet today. Very very busy and lots of buying. I noticed the prices are going down more so than in last 3-4 years. Some things actually cheap and people are buying (NW Houston area )
@petergozinya6122
@petergozinya6122 3 ай бұрын
Thank you Joseph
@kx5517
@kx5517 3 ай бұрын
Big fan, Joseph. Please keep the analysis coming!
@95TurboSol
@95TurboSol 3 ай бұрын
Whoa, a markets weekly on Saturday? Now my whole weekend is thrown off 😁
@andrewtay2001
@andrewtay2001 3 ай бұрын
Thank you 😊
@krastyokirov4459
@krastyokirov4459 3 ай бұрын
amazing video,great work
@The_Laid_Off_Life
@The_Laid_Off_Life 2 ай бұрын
JW ~ crazy unemployment numbers came out today that support big up swing on the way imo !
@user-tw2oe6zi6q
@user-tw2oe6zi6q 3 ай бұрын
Great Job Joseph keep up the Great work your doing.
@user-uv8be9co5s
@user-uv8be9co5s 3 ай бұрын
The 30-year bond yield is 4.38 and GDP is decreasing. Even when looking at NVR or MTH stocks, they haven't risen that much, and Bitcoin hasn't fallen either, but it's not constantly rising... Aren't you looking at it too optimistically?
@manivang9792
@manivang9792 3 ай бұрын
Ty sir for your information
@billbeers5147
@billbeers5147 3 ай бұрын
I would think demand for housing would decline since employment numbers are getting lower and lower signaling stagflation or a recession down the road,...
@tastypymp1287
@tastypymp1287 3 ай бұрын
What about the crazy inflation in migrants?
@krastyokirov4459
@krastyokirov4459 3 ай бұрын
thank you
@stoneyj1a1
@stoneyj1a1 3 ай бұрын
But I still don't know where this housing frenzy has come from. All this stimulus money that we got was only a few $1000.That's not enough to buy a house.Or put a down payment on a house.So who are the buyers? And why weren't they there before the pandemic which was only 4 years ago?
@MrUseur
@MrUseur 3 ай бұрын
Why are there no stock market declines anymore that deserve to be considered as corrections?
@CKL800
@CKL800 3 ай бұрын
Thanks Joseph👍🏻
@Ray-ou6ig
@Ray-ou6ig 3 ай бұрын
Hi Joseph, thank you for your hard work on providing us with this insightful information. However, if financial conditions are easing why do you expect the 10 year yield to rise this year?
@annabellepeng2994
@annabellepeng2994 3 ай бұрын
Does cut rate mean recession?
@stoneweapons
@stoneweapons 3 ай бұрын
One hell of a punch packed into 14 min...👊
@northlight_algo
@northlight_algo 3 ай бұрын
Love you man
@MaximumWayne
@MaximumWayne 3 ай бұрын
Great stuff as always
@lbatti11
@lbatti11 3 ай бұрын
It's all very simple. Fiat money is toilet paper and all real assets get inflated. You don't need youtubers and their daily/weekly videos to confuse you.
@DoitbreakitlearNmoveon
@DoitbreakitlearNmoveon 3 ай бұрын
Michael Zuber from one rental at a time sent me to your channel. He wants to bring you back to his channel
@Fedguy12
@Fedguy12 3 ай бұрын
Great channel. Will reach out later in the year!
@janeznovak7589
@janeznovak7589 3 ай бұрын
Nice little catch for Toll brothers
@szaky7399
@szaky7399 3 ай бұрын
Are you talking about hyperinflation?
@tastypymp1287
@tastypymp1287 3 ай бұрын
Bizarre financial industrial complex PR spin. At the start of the year the market was pricing in 6-7 cuts. Now it's likely only 3 but apparently that's bullish....
@Kolumbus123
@Kolumbus123 3 ай бұрын
Economic data has come in stronger than expected. The probability of recession (that would trigger a rate cutting spree) has decreased.
@tastypymp1287
@tastypymp1287 3 ай бұрын
@@Kolumbus123 Which economic data specifically?
@Kolumbus123
@Kolumbus123 3 ай бұрын
@@tastypymp1287 For the US, gdp has been stronger than expected (Q3 4.9%, Q4 3.1%, current AtlantaFed GDPNow still at a good 2.1%). Unemployment rate has ticked up a bit for february, but many expected a much more significant rise for the last couple months, which would have been the Sahm-indicator for recession. An indicator I look at is the "4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims" on the FRED website of St. Louis Fed. That looks quite tame.
@peterbedford2610
@peterbedford2610 3 ай бұрын
Mortgage rates going 6% will probably increase demand while not being enough of an incentive for people with 3% to sell. 40% of homes are debt free. Most homes have over 30% equity.
@Fedguy12
@Fedguy12 3 ай бұрын
my mortgage is 2.75 and I dont think I'm ever going to sell - I could always just rent it out.
@maciejs5763
@maciejs5763 3 ай бұрын
Housing market analysis made by Joseph is not consistent. Joseph is saying that housing supply is restricted because people are locked with "valuable" low yield mortages. Then Joseph is saying that when mortage yields drop than only buyers would appear. No... When rates would drop then also there will be more sellers as those low yield mortages will be less "valuable" because of smaller difference with current yields. So moving yields up/down is not changing much balance of supply/demand existing homes. Yields moving up/down is important for newly constructed houses balance of supply/demand.
@krastyokirov4459
@krastyokirov4459 3 ай бұрын
King Joseph
@imjamming
@imjamming 3 ай бұрын
I am not sure I agree that illegal immigration is weighing on the labor market and housing costs. The labor market being a lagging indicator, maybe finally beginning to show the effect of rising interest rates for the past two years. After all, the fed's goal in raising interest rates was to decrease demand by mainly increasing the unemployment rates. Higher housing cost is being driven by an increase in homeowner's insurance premium. Many home insurance premiums are rising faster than inflation.
@Fedguy12
@Fedguy12 3 ай бұрын
That definitely matters as well.
@imjamming
@imjamming 3 ай бұрын
@@Fedguy12 So far all signs point to a white collar recession. You even alluded it to it in one of your presentations. Unauthorized immigrants are less likely to be employed in white collar jobs and are concentrated in lower skill jobs(farming, cleaning, construction, food preparation and serving, etc). White collar jobs are vulnerable to offshore outsourcing and workers on temporary visas which have been happening for decades in the computer industry. So far, most of the layoffs of white collar workers occurred in the technology sector followed by the banking sector.
@geogsi88
@geogsi88 3 ай бұрын
You are very carefuly with words regarding JP comments on labour market. It is obvious what is happening. May market gods have mercy after US elections.
@nonexistent5030
@nonexistent5030 3 ай бұрын
Buffet hedging... Dimon hedging... retailers piling in on youtubers recommendations...
@brandonklosterman2978
@brandonklosterman2978 3 ай бұрын
Thank you Joseph
@MichaelJones-vb3lk
@MichaelJones-vb3lk 3 ай бұрын
Thank you Joseph
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