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Sir, the use of the lexicon "Middle East" was done from the perspective of London during the colonial times. A truly Indian discourse / Indian School of International Relations can only be built when we rephrase the lexicon for the region as "West Asia". Indian School of International Relations has great potential since much of the IR that we know is Western theorised. Thank you for the informative and in-depth analysis. Wishing you great health.

Mantra for India - "Keep calm and carry on". Focus on internal development while developing excellent ties with western world and other countries in neighbourhood.

With AAA+++++ rating and Banks can suddenly collapse, no "free" rating agency, everyone with their agenda...

Democracy can at times seem chaotic yet has a self correcting mechanism. Dictatorial regimes,on the other hand, appear coherent but are self serving and is a train wreck waiting to happen.😊

Beautifully compiled geopolitics and economics in this episode. Kudos to the effort to bring this up SG.

S&P downgraded the US's rating in 2012. China holding the highest reserves in USD treasury reserves launches BRI the next year, shifting some money to construction activities in other countries. Has anyone else seen the link over there

What About Recent IMF Upgradation of India's GDP Growth despite Global Slowdown, Morgan Stanley Upgrading India's Stock Markets and Degrading Chinese and Most Importantly, S&P Global about India's GDP Growth Averaging at 6.7% until 2031,Catapulting Nominal GDP to $ 6.7 Trillion USD and Nominal Per Capita to $ 4,500 USD

Singapore is rated AAA by Fitch, and they have Debt to GDP ratio of >160%

A big big miss from Shekhar on why this is happening. The Americans moved away from the middle East strategically, as declared about 10 years ago by the USA itself

@14:45 Fitch prediction Debt to GDP in 2025 will be 118.5% is flawed, current US debt is 122.8% debt to GDP, and most economist predict recession in 2024, the GDP growth is not expected to out pace US government deficit, because due high interest rates, the deficit spending is not going to GDP but interest payment on the debt. So, most likely the debt to GDP will be over 130%, US is increasing military spending, also tax revenue already decreased this year.

👍👍👍it was a nice piece of INFORMATION Journalism. Thanks Shekar 👍 its Great listening to your daily updates

Print does a U turn on Dedollarisation😮

These ratings have little implication for the Americans as they are able to print USD.

Thanks, you’re an excellent presenter of facts .. unbiased 👍👏⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

"Fitch predicts 'fiscal deterioration' in the US over next three years" Please explain this statement.

Simply brilliant presentation!

The US reliance on oil from the middle east has dwindled to one third (now around 10 to 12 %) of what it was in 2000. Domestic Shale oil production meets 65 % of its needs with a significant supply coming from Canada now its larger supplier. The Saudis have lost the leverage they had with the US while still depending on them for weapons to defend against their nemesis Iran who they know are close to having nuclear capability. MBS is playing brinksmanship by courting China to frustrate the US ( as he still needs US weapons) and also look for opportunities to replace the declining oil needs from the US. He knows after all only the US (and not China) will be prepared to fight their battle should Iran attack them. Very soon the Saudis will have no choice but to accept Indian Rupee given India's economy will continue to grow and so will be its oil needs..as they will not want to have all their eggs in 1 basket given China's precarious economy and a battered global image. Anyway local currency will benefit India a lot given its heavy reliance on oil imports. At least in the distant future one cannot see dollar's position being threatened as the US (along with Isreal) will continue to be the global leader in technology and innovation and the western block (wary of China and its aggresive foreign policy) will not let go the US dollar.

Well these agencies were in bed with companies and banks during 2008 crisis.

please make a CTC video on the recent importing license rule for laptops and electronics enforced by the govt

Nice information… thanks for doing this video

I quite like the presentation of Mr. Shekhar Gupta for the fact that he has his facts in front of him to back up his narratives, and somehow managed to throw in some humour to lighten it up somewhat. The main things I can take from this video are... (1). The democratization of economy and hence currencies, and (2). The gradual decline of US economy and governance,and then sharper decline of the US economy since Trump's short 4-year reign, leading to Biden's lamentable administration. The de-dollar-satiation and the CIPS is like sets of slow but steady incoming tidal waves, washing away the foundation of the pride US dollars and the SWIFT. China is in no hurry to dynamite the wall, but it allows the "takers" to work it out for themselves. They can decide what are the pros and cons between the two systems. They can take a bet each way, igore the CIPS, or go CIPS the whole way. China has time and stamina, while the US is struggling to deal with issues from within, bad actors, incompetent actors, and well, corrupt actors. Like Mr. Shekhar Gupta said, Fitch sees events further down the road, and it didn't like what it saw, and whacked US ratings accordingly. The US is a bit like a famous actor in Hollywood. As he gets older, his acting also trends down. But he still earns a reasonable living based on his PAST reputation. He still bring in the audience NOT because of his exceptional acting skills, but because of his PAST reputation. That will eventually wears off too, and I dare say the US will go the same way...becomes yesterday's man.

“The US dollar’s role in the global system cannot be changed like one might a pair of shoes or a car. There is no single or composite BRICS currency which will provide assets for the PRC and Russia and other surplus countries in which to invest. Russia is a sanctioned pariah state. Brazil and South Africa are commodity exporters, whose currencies are hinged to the dollar. India is the world’s biggest economy by population and runs trade deficits, that is it has to import capital. It also has a nationalistic streak of its own, is not exactly close to Beijing, and could hardly be expected to be enthusiastic about pooling its reserves with other countries, let alone the PRC. Then there are important technical questions, such as to which currency a BRICS currency might be pegged or linked, whether it would be convertible - even the yuan is only partially so - and why commodity currencies linked to the US dollar would even want yuan reserve .” - Professor Eamonn Sheridan

I've stopped watching CTC and NI and Shekhar Gupta in general. Sorry to say this, probably he doesn't care but my word of advice is - "Historical context" should be maximum 20% of a video on an issue. Currently, everything is 90% history lesson with very little to add in terms of current perspective. You should rename it to "History Lesson with Shekhar".

Thank you for this

Thanks!

Well said sir.👌👍

Sekharji, please do an episode on scam of teacher's job being sold in West Bengal. Some of the legitimate candidates are agitating in the streets for 10 years and whole thing is most cluttered.

Excellent analysis

USA has nothing to worry about until dollar lost reserved currency status

What about Russian money, oil money getting investing in Indian Stock Market, from 29th March, looks like most prominent stock has risen sharply, the day a bunch of Russian investors got their license in Indian Market.

Sir. Indian market do not depend on FII anymore. Indian Retail investors has been rock solid again all selling FII did in last 18 months.

All that will change as soon as the first Iranian bomb hit Saudi Arabia. What will happen when the first Chinese bomb hit Taiwan?

Mr Deven Sharma downgraded US when he headed S&P in 2011. That didn't go well and he left within a month of US downgrade.

Fitch, if it were realistic and honest the rating should have been ZZZ- - -

Sir please make a CTC episode on the present political situation in Bangladesh.

I am buying many yuan and preparing for future

Works central banks buying gold to replace their foreign exchange reserves is also taking place

Sg CTC 3 important policy decisions by government Ban on imports of laptops and pc, offshore mining policies, ban on rice exports

Does fitch collect any esg credits🤔

Fitch or S&P downgrading US, one need to understand that no economist can write off America. If they sneez, everyone around gets cold, including China as China depends on American dollars more and degrading will affect China with huge Chinese investments in America. All these talks of rating looks good to hear. But hard fact is even Pakistan deep down, will survive.

Isn’t this rating downgrade a fed interest rate hike by other means?

😊

US economy based on performance political power has accumulated reserve. China fundamental are stronger than US because of working objectively ie economy in full such us add values not in one sectoy but in all such us agriculture, manufacturing and service's ... Once the sensed that China China crossed the break even thrust went defence and expansion. During these periods US was thriving on middle east oil but politics but failed face the competition of china...In both economy ther is a lack respect humanity which Indias basic political economy which socilistic pattern and mixed economy which slow study and real valued.

What % of world trade out side of Chinas currency .

Not only got news but also learned new word schadenfreude

Its a good pointer to Indian Govt. To focus more on the state of Indian economy, (jobs & unemployment), than to focus on what Modi is saying. Modi is just interested in winning his next election, but people of India need to think twice on whom to really vote for and why if they want to upgrade. They should really focus on state of Indian economy (read market) than comparing it to the world. Hindi heartland should think that Govt programs cn achieve only so much. Real growth will occur only if you see private industries start investing in their districts. And that has to sustain for decades. Remember Bangalore didn't become, like Bangalore of today in 1 or 5 or 10 years, it has taken more than 30 years. (30+ years of peace, harmony & acceptance). In order to achieve that, divisive politics will not work.

saudi love for $ started losing during Obama's time. they didnt provide ammo during attack on yemen. what good are weapons without their ammo or spare parts. 2nd US went soft on Iran, 3rd no back up during qatar embargo, 4th no help during Iranian drone attacks. so if merica is just gonna sit and get cheap oil plus support for $ and not gonna do there due diligence, why would saudis support $ and buy merican weapons without ammo. only permanent interests, no permanent friends.

How come Biden, Trump issue is not on popular demand?

But the INR is depreceating against the USD Talk about Safety in India

❤❤❤❤❤......

U need to have a column on youtube... Called geopolitics explained.... Give me an opportunity

UPA from 2004 to 2014 was the biggest curse happened to India. It paved way for mediocrity and misgovernance of giant proportions.

Ya not going down. Been saying for years ... whole world has issues with inflation us getting its under control watch

People in Gurgaon really care about this and about Pakistan imf loans🙃 we care about USA credit rating 😉

Sg said 3 months ago no dedollarisation.now he saying opposite.

And a few weeks ago, shekar sir was saying that dedollarisation is not going to happen. I think what many experts/economists/journalists miss/underestimate about global changes is the human drive/desire/determination to change the world.

But the real question is, will the Chinese come to these ME countries' rescue when America decides to bring "Freedom" and "Democracy" to these countries from the skies? As history tells us whenever some country tried to disobey Washington's diktats, this is what happens .... specially in the Middle East.

In the media, India is winning every day and China is losing every day. But why RMB and not Rupee?

can you guys imagine an agency like Fitch functioning under modi - shah's India ?

Oh ok ! we are still talking about USA ! came here to see comments about Rahul and Modi ... yeah may be tomorrow ! ... have a nice day

Mr Gupta. . Ders a war coming in Africa... I hope ur prepared.... I wud like to do a column for print called geopolitics explained.... But i am not an mbbs in journalism... But more relevant dan anyone u hv ur team

I want the dollar to drop. But is it gonna hurt India. We depend on usa is a lot. We don't do anything.

According a report by Fed Reserve Bank, American credit card debt crossed 1 Trillion USD for the first time. Things are really going bad for US economy in recent years.

I am investing my retirement fund in Kwik-E-Marts. I will bring a translator just in case I am asked to leave.

What is the importance of India? It is not a economic, military or political power. Why does it stand in the way of so many countries? Why don't India quite BRICS?

Two points come to mind... one was covered by Mr Shekhar Gupta a couple of months back in a episode where the big increase of gold holdings by many countries including China , India and Singapore was analysed. This too in my view was a form of de dollarisation on a small scale. Second with the present system in China where their Foreign Minister (till recently )vanished from both the real and the cyber world does not really inspire confidence. The first requirement for a currency to be accepted as a global currency is political consensus or confidence in the system. The reason confidence is eroding in the American system besides the political logjam is that the 2025 presidential contest will in all probability be between Biden and Trump . So good governance remains a distant dream. Still even in its rundown condition the vast majority of countries will opt for the USA since it remains the best of the worst options.

Why fitch..and other rating companies gives BB- and lower rating to india 😢😢😢😢😢

A very good outline. I notice that most people ignorant on trade and currency, rightly do not understand the significance of where we are with de-dollarization. This is the tipping point for the long term decline of the US dollar over time. If the USD was represented as a fuel tank full of currency power, the present stage of de-dollarization represents a small hole in the bottom of the tank, that has begun the drip energy out of the tank and onto the ground. How big will that hole become over then decade or more? One way that hole drips faster will be the use of CBDC (central bank digital currencies) in international trade. Every little step towards de-dollarization adds to that little hole getting bigger.

We condemn this rating to their own agency 😂

Hello Shekhar Saab! An Average Indian is struggling everyday with $

Please also cover how china become worlds largest exporter of cars.

India should leave BRICS and start its own club. Thailand, India, Turkey and Sri Lanka. Then you can sit at the top table, if that's important?

3 min 137 views.

"It's not as if America has been in trouble for the last 12 years ..." Sorry Mister, but America has been in deep trouble since before 2008. Why else would it do exceptional measures like QE, eventually to negative interest. And with this the Fed is sitting on epic losses for trillions in bonds purchased in the market at vastly over valued prices. In fact the world is so acustomed to sickness of state fiat currency in the world's reserve currency, the anxieties a fluctuating markets spreading around the world, credit cycles it has become numbed to this disease of financial instability. In 2023 the US will pay about 1.2 trillion in interest to service its govt debt. Anyone else would pay this from income (taxes), but it is paying with more debt as it run deficit financing. This kind of rating is not AA+. It's more like a B or C because it is a spiralling debt trap (debt begets more debt). This fait system is so sick that China and a number of countries are abandonning it opting for de-dollarisation.

Ukraine astrology for 2022.Maren Altman

Shekhar, you, underestimating the power of the Fed, the US central bank is a kind of big joke!

Excellent as always, but 20 years of poor governance = 2003, definitely after Clinton. In fact, in some significant ways, governance was measurably better in the the 90s. Despite Republican hatred of him, his own missteps, and political setbacks, Clinton managed negotiations well on important items, and effectively tamed the federal deficit with a politically risky tax increase. Also significantly improved agency performance, including disaster management, from the Reagan Bush era.

Please refrain from using the colonial term "middle East" and use West Asia instead.

No one is talking about destruction of Indian democracy. Just rant about negative news of other countries , which basically implies nothing to India

de-dollarization ... hahahahah

CTC on Jaipur train shooting incident, supreme court verdict in Rahul Gandhi mp status reversal please

Dedollarization always lead to war... Eg: gadaffi, sadam,iran 😂😂😂 we can expect another war soon...

We want brics currency anyhow

As usual, India is confused in it's foreign policy wrt BRICS as it's not able to make a decision on who is a long term partner and who isn't. Unable to guide itself with history or future position vis-à-vis world power, and how foreign policy would change for it's potential partners, it's confused. Ask why China is an adversary for America and why is Taiwan such a big issue vs so many other countries globally who not only have threats to democracy but actually go through coup takeover. Not understanding neocapitalism is lacking good understanding of the world...😮 20:21

Willl not happen .. TINA

Why should China trying to bring UAE and Saudi Arabia in to BRICS is awkward for India ? As India us trying to better itself ,so will ve rhe efforts of ither countries which feel threatened with India's effiets will try their own methods to counter. Do you suggest I dia shouldn't try bettering itself ? It was expected that you will mention the efforts of India in dedollorisation which may be to the detriment of USA and Chiba . This is sll part of international games ! But obviously, you want to show that India is being overpowered and Ivermanoeuvred by China and India has no answer .. Lage raho ....

Downgrade makes no sense and shows the rating agencies as arbitrary and lacking any common sense. US debt is denominated in USD which they can print at will.

Must you memtion pakistan all the time,even thought its not part of the story

The US government is spending too much. The amount is 50% more than pre-pandemic. I could understand 20% more because of price inflation and green energy initiatives. It makes many Americans nervous too. The downgrade is reasonable.

Of course trump is responsible for this too😂

This time, anything goes wrong in America, that's because of Trump 😅.. America is on its way to a Kangaroo state.

please change it to you name as China Gupta . 😂 china is powerful come on

Countries around the world are dumping US Treasuries or US Debt. China used have 4 Trillion now has 870 Billion only. USA is a financially bankrupt nation by any standard. It should have received C- or D rating. AA+ is way too much

Good you started to be a little anti BJP

U r the only channel which don't rely on TRP, u don't defame and fame anyone, u only show the reality. But still I want to say pls don't mix with other news channel for the sake of more earnings and fake TRP. Be stable. Thanks 😊 🫂 🙏

What About Recent IMF Upgradation of India's GDP Growth despite Global Slowdown, Morgan Stanley Upgrading India's Stock Markets and Degrading Chinese and Most Importantly, S&P Global about India's GDP Growth Averaging at 6.7% until 2031,Catapulting Nominal GDP to $ 6.7 Trillion USD and Nominal Per Capita to $ 4,500 USD

What About Recent IMF Upgradation of India's GDP Growth despite Global Slowdown, Morgan Stanley Upgrading India's Stock Markets and Degrading Chinese and Most Importantly, S&P Global about India's GDP Growth Averaging at 6.7% until 2031,Catapulting Nominal GDP to $ 6.7 Trillion USD and Nominal Per Capita to $ 4,500 USD

What About Recent IMF Upgradation of India's GDP Growth despite Global Slowdown, Morgan Stanley Upgrading India's Stock Markets and Degrading Chinese and Most Importantly, S&P Global about India's GDP Growth Averaging at 6.7% until 2031,Catapulting Nominal GDP to $ 6.7 Trillion USD and Nominal Per Capita to $ 4,500 USD