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“Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?”. This was one of the “most Influential AAAI Papers” of 2023 based on citations. The authors introduce a set of embarrassingly simple one-layer linear models named LTSF-Linear for comparison to Transformers.
arxiv.org/abs/2205.13504
www.paperdigest.org/2023/09/most-influential-aaai-papers-2023-09/