Economist explains why you can't afford a house anymore

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Money & Macro

Money & Macro

Күн бұрын

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SOURCES:
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www.moneymacro.rocks/2024-05-...
Timestamps:
0:00 - introduction
2:11- housing consumption
9:03 - Backblaze
10:22 - housing investment
16:11 - mortgage affordability
19:21 - discussion
Attribution:
Some of the more creative images were generated with chatGPT
Narrated and produced by Dr. Joeri Schasfoort

Пікірлер: 2 100
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro Ай бұрын
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@Dogo.R
@Dogo.R Ай бұрын
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@Abu_Shawarib
@Abu_Shawarib Ай бұрын
The link in the video description is not clickable, but here it is. 🤔KZfaq is acting weird
@PoliticalEconomy101
@PoliticalEconomy101 Ай бұрын
You forgot two more theories: a) The Homevoter Hypothesis by William Fischel, and b) see the video entitled "Why Is the Rent So Damn High? The Real Reason Will Shock You"
@carkawalakhatulistiwa
@carkawalakhatulistiwa Ай бұрын
House to expensive for new family . Old rich people have 4 home As an investment. Increase house prices
@carkawalakhatulistiwa
@carkawalakhatulistiwa Ай бұрын
Easily prohibited from owning more than 2 houses can reduce house prices. With Thousand of rich people forced to sell their 3rd and 4th homes
@Mr-sweeny
@Mr-sweeny 13 күн бұрын
Prices are too high. With rates not subsidised in ’24 and mortgage still high , currently seeking alternatives to maximize savings without an RV move or taking a loan. I’m seriously contemplating the latter.
@Dannyholt33
@Dannyholt33 13 күн бұрын
Affording our mortgage is tough as well. I have suggested cashing in, renting or relocating, and investing the rest in the stock market.
@mikeroper353
@mikeroper353 13 күн бұрын
If you can afford to relocate, you should manage the mortgage.
@PhilipDunk
@PhilipDunk 13 күн бұрын
if you are looking to invest in the stock market, I suggest you Consider a fiduciary with mortgage-backed securities knowledge for guidance. Prices today may look like dips tomorrow.
@PatrickLloyd-
@PatrickLloyd- 13 күн бұрын
Thats true, working with a financial advisor has been a game-changer for me. They provided invaluable insights and tailored strategies that aligned perfectly with my risk tolerance and financial objectives. With their support, I've seen significant growth in my investments and gained confidence in my financial future.
@Dannyholt33
@Dannyholt33 13 күн бұрын
this is all new to me, where do I find a fiduciary, can you recommend any?
@juicemonger3872
@juicemonger3872 Ай бұрын
Regarding the IMF study at 16:10, one thing missing from the analysis is that while interest was higher and home prices lower, those buyers from the 1980's were able to refinance their mortgages as rates dropped, decreasing their monthly expenses. Buying at a high price with a low interest rate will NEVER present a similar opportunity.
@alphamikeomega5728
@alphamikeomega5728 Ай бұрын
And the real interest rate was a lot lower than the nominal one, so if your income increased with inflation, it would be (relatively) more affordable. And before buying a house, you could deposit your money and be at the receiving end of the high nominal interest rates.
@ANEEAMA
@ANEEAMA Ай бұрын
Because there is an inverse relationship between the two due to the increase in demand. However, demand can be decreased by limiting citizens to purchase one house and banning foreign residents to purchase houses.
@miketheneanderthal9490
@miketheneanderthal9490 Ай бұрын
My parents took advantage of this. They struggled with their high payments with an 18% loan for several years, but then refinanced a couple times as interest rates went down.
@PelosiStockPortfolio
@PelosiStockPortfolio Ай бұрын
The high interest/low price scenario has several other advantages. 1. The interest is what you write off on your taxes (this is huge). 2. It requires less time to accumulate the down payment (also huge, it sucks for younger people to need to save 150k before they can get in the game).
@petewilliamson2609
@petewilliamson2609 Ай бұрын
Ah...good observation
@lingth
@lingth Ай бұрын
In Singapore, the govt builds them.. offers the buyers a loan instead of the bank . Than enforce rules that you can't use it as an investment.. so to keep house affordable for ppl who need them to live not invest.
@ddj2010
@ddj2010 Ай бұрын
Singapore does a lot of things right - because it was fortunate to start that way. I lived in Singapore, rented in NYC and own in Canada. Landlord and bank lobbies in either countries would never let these see the light of day! On the other hand, we have much cheaper cars 😊
@xuedalong
@xuedalong Ай бұрын
And also prevents all but the most insanely rich foreigners from buying homes with a 60% stamp duty. Yep. Six Zero. 😹
@TurnRiver
@TurnRiver Ай бұрын
This is false. Singapore is one of the faster appreciating markets for investment. It is only difficult for the newer investor, because it will be challenging to find cash flowing properties for cheap. Fundamentals are all the same. Large cities with dense urban populations have some of the most expensive and unaffordable real estate in the world. NYC, Hong Kong, London, and Tokyo are examples of this.
@OurLordandSaviorSigmar
@OurLordandSaviorSigmar Ай бұрын
This is the correct way. Housing is a basic human need that should be kept away from speculation.
@TurnRiver
@TurnRiver Ай бұрын
@@OurLordandSaviorSigmar Needs vs Wants. What I keep hearing is that we NEED affordable housing where we WANT to live.
@Zei33
@Zei33 Ай бұрын
The NIMBYs in Australia are the worst. The government wanted to build public transport in my city, a light rail to get from one side to the other. It would reduce the need for cars and give us the opportunity to build higher density. But NO. Everywhere you would see bumper stickers “NO LIGHT RAIL”. Why they’re opposed to it? I have no idea.
@mat3714
@mat3714 Ай бұрын
Same here, we had a federal founding to foot half of the cost of a public transportation system but people got angry and asked for another bridge that won't be built instead......so we ended up with nothing ( aside the hundreds of millions and countless wasted hours on studies ) and my brain hurts.
@JamielDeAbrew
@JamielDeAbrew Ай бұрын
In Australia NIMBYs are part of the problem. And there are many other parts too. Eg1 taxing property when purchased/sold. This discourages empty nesters from downsizing. That would add supply of rooms to the market. Removing this disincentive to moving would save the government on transportation infrastructure costs too. Eg2 the family home is exempt from government pension tests. This provides an incentive for empty nesters to stay in a larger house than they need. Eg3 tax advantages for workers to invest in land (including land with homes on it). Unfortunately this pulls investment away from productivity investment in business. Eg4 an economic system that relies on population growth to fund the aged pension and aged care. Eg5 infrastructure investment taking demand for tradespeople and materials - increasing the cost of building new homes And probably many other factors that I have missed.
@robgrey6183
@robgrey6183 Ай бұрын
Because expanded public transport gives criminals access to decent neighborhoods. And public transit is where bums go to sleep, and certain demographics go to collect "reparations".
@robgrey6183
@robgrey6183 Ай бұрын
Public transit gives cri*m*nals access to decent neighborhoods. Decent people don't want that.
@skyworm8006
@skyworm8006 Ай бұрын
People are allowed to not want their neighbourhood completely changed, or in some cases destroyed and residents forced out, for infrastructure of debatable merit that they obviously don't want. Not to mention other, very suspect policies. To suggest otherwise makes you anti-democratic. You are blaming something that doesn't really exist, your fixation on 'NIMBYs' which is not actually a phenomenon in this country but something you imported from the internet as a fantastical ideological opponent. The term was created and fundamentally is about characterising locals having a say in what happens to where they live as somehow regressive, and that they should just shut up and let those in power, or corporations, do whatever. It's very telling that the term is originally and most commonly applied to neighbourhoods with a high standard of living, low crime, and strong community spirit (not to say you use it in this way though). i.e. neighbourhoods that are politically very self-determining. Who don't just accept abuses and mismanagement. Rather than about the merits of specific infrastructure. So perhaps try getting people on board, if the merits are truly clear, and not imposing a group that doesn't exist as a way of dehumanising everyone or explaining why something didn't happen when the real reason may be something else, like some bureaucrat just deciding not to? Or upon conducting studies, realising it wasn't a good idea?
@networkgeekstuff9090
@networkgeekstuff9090 Ай бұрын
I realized where the problem lies when I was buying my first apartment a few years back. On any apartment presnetation session there was me as 20-something old with my wife looking for a place to live and always competing with at least 2-3 other 40-50+ year olds looking for investment as their second-third apartment they can airbnb or rent. When young families have to compete with folks looking for an investment, that is not a good sign.
@gold707786
@gold707786 Ай бұрын
Also means top of a bubble. When people are buying gold at Costco , gold prices are maxing out. 40-50 year olds should not be buying real estate at top prices because of their age. If I was 20ish I would stay renting( and get the wife on onlyfans to make extra cash). ''Your house dreams will happen faster'', you can argue back to her.
@richardbloemenkamp8532
@richardbloemenkamp8532 Ай бұрын
I'm indeed your 40-50+ category: secondary real-estate in and around big cities remains a stable investment with a reasonable yield being the rent plus possible appreciation. Stocks are often too volatile and too easy to tax in Europe because most voters do not own a lot of stocks, so many voter agree with high tax on stocks to tax the rich. If however regulators propose to put heavy taxes on secondary real-estate, it will impact too many secondary real-estate owners and they will not win elections. Housing prices may temporarily go down, which is fine. You still have the rent. New construction will hold and a few years later there will be a shortage again boosting the housing prices back up. Houses and land in and around big cities are scarce and will likely remain scarce over the long run as the world population keeps growing. Best is to not buy a the top of a bubble but for the rest you will be ok. If you do not have a lot of money you can start by buying a parking place of a student flat which you can rent to other people while at the same time you rent your own apartment.
@samuela-aegisdottir
@samuela-aegisdottir Ай бұрын
I agree and I also think that this is what they get wrong in te video. Investment appartments don't have to be empty. Middle class and upper middle class buyers ususally rent them, wither long term, AirBnB or to a company that rents it to others.
@MrCymix
@MrCymix Ай бұрын
​@richardbloemenkamp8532 what makes you think you aren't "the rich", my guy. I'm in your group too. These kids are paying your mortgage(s) (if you have them) and your social security (if you can collect), and maybe your healthcare (if you qualify). And, what are they getting out of it? Probably not a lot more than poorer. Top it all off, social security is horribly insolvent so they pay in to something for which they'll never see a return. No wonder why they're upset.
@snark567
@snark567 29 күн бұрын
Landlords should not be allowed to do that with homes. It's one thing to rent out a warehouse, it's another thing to buy out homes and rent them out. It's going to cripple the country.
@TheJubess
@TheJubess Ай бұрын
All though a cheap house with a mortgage with a high interest rate and an expensive house with a mortgage with a low interest rate might me paying the same monthly payment. The first has more opportunities: 1. Refinancing when rates drop 2. Paying off your debt will instantly give you a high yield without a lot of risk.
@7fall
@7fall Ай бұрын
Rates mean absolutely nothing, and serve to distract. It literally has no impact whatsoever, as it’s a percent x base, the base being price. 90% rate on a $10,000 house is much better than 1% rate on a $900,000 house. The only thing that matters, is the price that’s locked in.
@ginalley
@ginalley Ай бұрын
I'm no economist so I'm not sure if this is correct but for australia, house price to income ratio went from 3.5 in 1980s to 6+ today. Wouldn't this mean mortgages in the country would be harder to obtain, therefore muting the point posed by the IMF on mortgage repayments.
@Descriptor413
@Descriptor413 Ай бұрын
The fact that we need low interest rates for things to be affordable is itself a massive red flag that things are going wrong. It means our economy has a very weak foundation, and massively inflates risk in a way that we may not be able to mitigate next time. We've been living beyond our means for decades while making raising the bar to enter into society so high that many aren't able to reach it. Something is going to have to give.
@samuela-aegisdottir
@samuela-aegisdottir Ай бұрын
Another thing is that banks don't lent you the whole amount, so you need to save some part of the price in advance. This is much easier when the price of the house is lower, you can save the money more easily and the mortage is then much more accesible to you.
@djri2984
@djri2984 26 күн бұрын
​@@7fall I think you get interest rates wrong. The rate is NOT calculated from price of the house but its percentage of how much your unpaid debt growths every year. If mortgage loan was $10,000 with 90% rate and loan term 30 years, your total payment would be $270,000 (it's less $900,000 but it's still more than you might expect).
@gauloise6442
@gauloise6442 27 күн бұрын
Also the globalisation of the housing market. It used to be Parisians lived in Paris, and maybe a handful of hardcore, dedicated expats. Now every wealthy person in China, India, Turkey, Dubai, you name it wants a pied a terre there, or in NYC or London, etc. Add that with so many apartments being converted to Air bnbs,.
@fredericthibault6692
@fredericthibault6692 Ай бұрын
Forgot to mention a major issue in Canada: the cost per average household wage. A little less than 30 years ago, the average cost for a two-person household used to be two times their combined wage. Now it is four times. The average Canadian wage did not follow the house cost increase, which means that even if the interest rates are lower than they were 30 years ago, you will need a bigger cash down to buy a house. As a result, the younger generation cannot leave their parents' house because they cannot manage to have enough cash down to have a good enough mortgage to buy their first home in the city that they live and probably work.
@markferguson7563
@markferguson7563 Ай бұрын
The innate crux of why properties in Canada, and Australia - and, this is also true for England, as opposed to Britain; likewise with the US, too - is irrefutably due to one factor, and that is buttressed in large-scale immigration programs. This is then exacerbated with supply not keeping up with demand. So, all of the other aspects, which are espoused by the host and, indeed, with all those people posting comments regarding this, that or something else (although certainly having validity) is ostensibly just waffling on in a sea of self-serving semantics. Because in any of these jurisdictions that are fully dependent upon fueling their GDP’s via importing consumers, if enough properties aren’t constructed to cope with demand, then the dire side-effect is OVER PRICED properties. David Ricardo and, particularly with Henry George, were theorizing and espousing comments and, indeed, warnings on all of the negative nuances impacting real estate prices. Apropos to Henry George, way back in 1881 - two years after his book, ‘Progress and Poverty’ was published he told a senate hearing during the Garfield administration that: “The overt essence of why property values should in crease is a result of productivity, and not speculation.” Alas, here we are over 140 years after Henry George wrote ‘Progress and Poverty’ and, also, 207 years since David Ricado wrote the ‘Law of Rent’, we have politicians and captains of industry in Australia, Canada, Britain, and the US who missed reading their perspectives. But there is a far, far greater detriment to consider for all of these nations that have implemented large-scale, and, moreover, non-discriminatory immigration schedules. And that is to ponder the severe sociological impairments that will come to bear upon these societies being fractured on race, culture and, worst of all, religion. Quite simply, immigrant groups from non-Anglo/European and, more so, non-Christian cradles have been over the past 20-30 years that they have become culturally insular colonies/enclaves. Thus, it’s only a short time away before these groups organise against these societies in their own parliaments. To garner this pending horror most assuredly comes to pass in Britain, with hundreds of thousands of Muslims rallying in pro-Palestinian, and anti-Israel rallies from the middle of October.
@antoniiocaluso1071
@antoniiocaluso1071 18 күн бұрын
@@markferguson7563 sure, well...that's how it is, for sure. glad to hear everything else is OK for ya, though! just be thankful there's no Mongols just over your hilltop!
@parkerbohnn
@parkerbohnn 16 күн бұрын
The average fixer upper home costs about 1.5 million so the average person makes just under $60,000 a year so that's 25 times gross income as single people still exist. Of course after you pay all the taxes and everything else it works out to about 100 times whatever income is leftover.
@Artagah
@Artagah 12 күн бұрын
​​@@markferguson7563 ok now summarize this in a single sentence cause it's easy to misunderstand and most aren't gonna bother to read lol. I got "the immigrants are to blame, fuck em lol" from this, does that sound about right? Fancy words don't make the sentiment any better or more justified. If I misunderstood then please correct.
@thelegendaryck
@thelegendaryck 9 күн бұрын
Depends where you are and your spending habits, im putting 20% down atm on a 134k house with minimal repairs needed, i only make like 25k a year and saved for 5 or so years
@Mulerider4Life
@Mulerider4Life Ай бұрын
Good overall summary. You are one of the few channels that try to tell the whole story. No click bait videos, just information. Please don't ever change!
@carlospesqueraalonso4988
@carlospesqueraalonso4988 Ай бұрын
100% agree. That is why I follow this channel!
@Nobody-st7xh
@Nobody-st7xh Ай бұрын
Check out Gary's Economics instead, he's much better
@DemolitionManDemolishes
@DemolitionManDemolishes Ай бұрын
I find Dr. Joeri's videos are hit and miss. Like this video for example, I dont see any proper conclusion - we saw some data, discussed possible factors, thats it. To get some conclusions I would have to dig through the data myself. Also, after mentioning the IMF study, it would be nice to know what you personally think of it, do you endorse it, or you find some flaws.
@user-hx2wx7mk8n
@user-hx2wx7mk8n Ай бұрын
He is missing another big factor...mass immigration to Western countries.
@domepiece11
@domepiece11 25 күн бұрын
Pppphhh, he blamed NIMBYs. Um, how about the corporate executives who created the Great Recession which created a shortage of new housing? Nah, let’s blame the middle class for everything, it’s more fun!
@asozialesnetzwerk
@asozialesnetzwerk Ай бұрын
I grew up in the southern German state of Bavaria. My region suffers from the "Munich factor". Can't fully prove it empirically though. Still sometimes there's the joke that the Munich metropolitan area reaches almost to Prague these days. The costs of living in Munich are just ridiculous. Problem is sorta twofold here. The city wants to expand but the farmers on the urban fringe do not want to sell their land to the city government. Also the city government until quite recently was very strict on how high you were allowed to build but if you can't expand your city you have to build higher... Anyways. The unaffordability of Munich including it's fringes creates a lot of commuters and makes commuting areas more attractive for people because working there is still pretty attractive driving up rent and property prices almost 100 km around Munich.
@CzechShooter
@CzechShooter Ай бұрын
Ok Im from Prague so still withing the Munich metropolitan area 😀
@ivankuzin8388
@ivankuzin8388 12 күн бұрын
People want to live there because there are better jobs there - so, they need not to expand the city (they try that now, with not a lot of success), they need to move some of these jobs away to other municipalities. There are some problems with that, of course - first, it goes against the traditional competitive approach, where municipalities are competing for jobs ; it might seem to hurt immediate tax returns (more jobs = more taxes) ; businesses that are to move (or even open from a start NOT in Munich) need to still pay Munich wages, or people will still go to Munich for more money. Business will know that costs for their employees are lower, so they won't do it voluntarily. Maybe something like a program where businesses are incentivized by tax subsidies (that would still be attractive after covering for still paying Munich wages) to move jobs away from Munich to other Bavarian municipalities will help here.
@KookyBone
@KookyBone Ай бұрын
I just read an article how Vienna in Austria kept their house prices and rents so low, the simple solution: the city build a huge part of houses themself - this while profit is limited and all profit must be used for new buildings... And about 50% of the houses have to be rent to low income people. And to make sure no ghettos start out of this, it needs to be mixed with people of other incomes... So the goal is not to put all poorer people in area, but always try to mix them, this is most times a good way to prevent ghettos from forming.
@xXdnerstxleXx
@xXdnerstxleXx Ай бұрын
Yep, that is pretty much always the key. In a new suburbia, slap down a few appartment complexes here and there, maybe setup shops around it and you have already much better cities. You know... the thing that would naturally happen if we had no city "planning". What we currently have are idiotic made up divisions.
@ArawnOfAnnwn
@ArawnOfAnnwn Ай бұрын
This is what Singapore has been doing for decades. It's also part of their effort to combat mono-ethnic ghettos arising too, as their policy also mandates maintaining a certain ratio of mixed ethnicities in all neighbourhoods.
@robgrey6183
@robgrey6183 Ай бұрын
Vienna didn't build anything. They expropriated the wealth of those who actually produce something, and used it to pay other producers to build housing. The role of the Vienna Government was merely redistributive. Their means was force.
@ArawnOfAnnwn
@ArawnOfAnnwn Ай бұрын
@@robgrey6183 Found the Austrian (economist).
@-TheUnkownUser
@-TheUnkownUser Ай бұрын
@@ArawnOfAnnwn Nah, more like the economist cope champion. These people can’t accept that their fairy tale is bs.
@georgemontgomery425
@georgemontgomery425 Ай бұрын
Land value tax addresses all 3 points(except for zoning) I'm pretty surprised you didn't bring it up given how popular LVT is among economists!
@robgrey6183
@robgrey6183 Ай бұрын
Tax, tax, tax. Then, tax some more. And then, wonder why things don't get better.
@stevecatpatrick8056
@stevecatpatrick8056 Ай бұрын
Please tell me how we get to there from here without confiscating everyone's wealth? That's the thing I'm interested in is someone going into depth on the transition from our tax system to a true LVT. Because any assets purchased now and earlier would lose their value in a true LVT since ultimately it would reduce the value of the land close to zero once it reached its appropriate price. That's my understanding of the benefit of the LVT. However that means that the choice to move from our system to that system would effectively destroy the value and confiscate the wealth of anyone holding land. Which is probably why I would never come to pass, obviously it would take decades to slowly move to that system and the political pushback would be massive. If we want to do it not as a tool of redistribution but as being more economically efficient we would need some sort of way to compensate the people losing the value of their land. Likely in the form of some sort of tax credit so they could still get the value lost.
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Ай бұрын
@@robgrey6183 Land value taxes are often seen as a replacement for most other taxes. So a land value tax actually reduce taxation
@grimaffiliations3671
@grimaffiliations3671 Ай бұрын
@@stevecatpatrick8056 wouldn't land owners be compensated with lower property taxes?
@ShumaBot
@ShumaBot Ай бұрын
​@@stevecatpatrick8056 But that IS the answer. And it should be.
@dougpatterson7494
@dougpatterson7494 Ай бұрын
I agree that housing should be seen as more of a consumption good than a speculative investment. I’m commenting from Canada and became a homeowner last autumn. I live in a city with among the 25 least expensive housing prices and I wouldn’t consider housing “cheap” here. I would earn more money doing a similar job in Vancouver or Toronto but only 30-50% more, not 170-200% more, to compensate for the nearly 3x as expensive median home price. Certainly not 400% more to compensate for the fact that my SFH in a good location and with a basement suite would be worth about 5x as much in Vancouver.
@effexon
@effexon Ай бұрын
sir, this is excellent summary of modern problems and urbanization. bringing in lot of immigrant workforce cannot fix this fundamental problem and city/public housing cannot build free houses below construction costs either. it comes down to distribute things also among cities better.
@markferguson7563
@markferguson7563 Ай бұрын
The innate crux of why properties in Canada, and Australia - and, this is also true for England, as opposed to Britain; likewise with the US, too - is irrefutably due to one factor, and that is buttressed in large-scale immigration programs. This is then exacerbated with supply not keeping up with demand. So, all of the other aspects, which are espoused by the host and, indeed, with all those people posting comments regarding this, that or something else (although certainly having validity) is ostensibly just waffling on in a sea of self-serving semantics. Because in any of these jurisdictions that are fully dependent upon fueling their GDP’s via importing consumers, if enough properties aren’t constructed to cope with demand, then the dire side-effect is OVER PRICED properties. David Ricardo and, particularly with Henry George, were theorizing and espousing comments and, indeed, warnings on all of the negative nuances impacting real estate prices. Apropos to Henry George, way back in 1881 - two years after his book, ‘Progress and Poverty’ was published he told a senate hearing during the Garfield administration that: “The overt essence of why property values should in crease is a result of productivity, and not speculation.” Alas, here we are over 140 years after Henry George wrote ‘Progress and Poverty’ and, also, 207 years since David Ricado wrote the ‘Law of Rent’, we have politicians and captains of industry in Australia, Canada, Britain, and the US who missed reading their perspectives. But there is a far, far greater detriment to consider for all of these nations that have implemented large-scale, and, moreover, non-discriminatory immigration schedules. And that is to ponder the severe sociological impairments that will come to bear upon these societies being fractured on race, culture and, worst of all, religion. Quite simply, immigrant groups from non-Anglo/European and, more so, non-Christian cradles have been over the past 20-30 years that they have become culturally insular colonies/enclaves. Thus, it’s only a short time away before these groups organise against these societies in their own parliaments. To garner this pending horror most assuredly comes to pass in Britain, with hundreds of thousands of Muslims rallying in pro-Palestinian, and anti-Israel rallies from the middle of October.
@jarodarmstrong509
@jarodarmstrong509 Ай бұрын
Problem is you don't consume land, which is usually a significant portion if not the majority of a market price level for a house anywhere near a major economic center.
@robgrey6183
@robgrey6183 Ай бұрын
@@effexon The "immigrants" who are coming in don't want to work. They want to squat, and Free S***.
@Descriptor413
@Descriptor413 Ай бұрын
The fact that most people's only chance at making money is through owning a house is a massive problem in our economy. Simply owning a house doesn't produce any wealth, beyond maybe maintaining what's there. It doesn't expand our economy or increase our supplies. It's just pure speculation. And an economy built completely around that will by definition eventually fail.
@rogerbartlet5720
@rogerbartlet5720 Ай бұрын
The NIMBY issue is rampant where I live - they gang up legally with HOA's , zoning and building permits to preserve property values. It turns you can get someones attention very easily with a story that has their home value dropping.
@brimbles4999
@brimbles4999 Ай бұрын
i think when you understand the fact ppl already have put a lot of monetary investment into their home with the promise they can sell it for retirement you can understand the fear of building new homes with the idea their home value will lower, the question is how can we involve current home owners in the building of new homes without destroying their retirement plan which i dont think we should take away with them. i think there could be a solution found that helps both parties, maybe a system that gives home owners in the area partial "bond" type owner ship over new properties in their area? maybe even a co-operative system where ownership is shared in the areas new transit stops are built, leading to more businesses and homes around those key areas where instead of push back we now have home owners begging for new developments in their backyard
@PedroPrego
@PedroPrego Ай бұрын
​@@brimbles4999bs
@Allaiya.
@Allaiya. Ай бұрын
100%. My city is doing a housing task force and were warned about a loud vocal minority pushing back & oh, that set off a ton of letters by boomers saying they weren't a minority.
@enclave6285
@enclave6285 Ай бұрын
@@brimbles4999 As a homeowner, I will be the first to say I have NO right to enforce zoning restrictions to benefit my retirement prospects. I bought 1 house, I don’t have the right to make others homeless and broke by trying to stop more from being built.
@enclave6285
@enclave6285 Ай бұрын
And I certainly don’t have the right to an ownership stake in land I didn’t buy.
@IsaacKeaton
@IsaacKeaton 19 күн бұрын
We need policies to discourage speculative investments. Herd mentality equals chaos. Personally I shifted from following the crowd to solid research and saw $1.3 million in returns under a year.
@PeterParkar-nk6dw
@PeterParkar-nk6dw 19 күн бұрын
True, herd mentality sucks. You mentioned returns, how do you know it's due to research and not luck? Luck in investing is often downplayed.
@IsaacKeaton
@IsaacKeaton 19 күн бұрын
when its consistent, its not considered luck. research was the challenge until it led to Emily Ava Milligan, a top fund manager, her strategy made 290k into this and counting.
@PeterParkar-nk6dw
@PeterParkar-nk6dw 19 күн бұрын
I pasted her name into my browser, her website popped right up. I wish I had a tangible example like yours to reference earlier. thanks for sharing
@TheLovescream
@TheLovescream 18 күн бұрын
Fucking bots
@Benjamin.Jamin.
@Benjamin.Jamin. 29 күн бұрын
Recommend looking at UK or Ireland. I work in planning and have worked in modelling housing demand in the past. We use factors including 1. internal migration. 2. external migration. 3. household size trends. 4. household formation. 5. birth / death rate. We've known in the UK since the 00's that HUGE numbers of new houses were needed. External immigration has been even higher than predicted. Household formation, a bit less. Ofc nowhere near enough were built. Add speculation, NIMBY factor etc. and its a disaster. But at the bottom is supply/demand.
@JimmyLeeJr
@JimmyLeeJr 18 күн бұрын
But LSE says immigration has absolutely no effect on housing prices whatsoever. The BBC is very clear on this as well. Perhaps you require re-education on this topic, comrade.
@think_query
@think_query 18 күн бұрын
@@JimmyLeeJrI don’t know about immigration having absolutely no effect on housing… don’t immigrants need a place to live? Most people need shelter and housing thus consumption for housing goes up. Immigration may not have a big effect, but it is definitely not zero.
@tropics8407
@tropics8407 16 күн бұрын
Have you looked at the regulations suppressing building starts ? Esp the stupid greenie ones ? Let us know your thoughts
@keithwollenberg5237
@keithwollenberg5237 11 күн бұрын
@@JimmyLeeJr Note in this context that the LSE is actually the London School of Economics and Politics, and while it is a prestigious academic institution, it has a mandate beyond the objective pursuit of knowledge -- specifically, the advancement of the objectives of the Fabian Society (wiki). Thus, its pronouncements on this issue may be driven by another agenda.
@slavchomarinov9909
@slavchomarinov9909 Ай бұрын
If we assume crude oil and gas as being a necessity, as you need to get to work regadless how much it‘s gonna cost you then a 10% reduction in the crude oil supply won‘t lead to 10% increase of the price at the pump, but it might go up double. This is because people will pay literally every single extra dollar more to make sure that they are not among the 10% that won‘t be able to go to work anymore. Same thing with missing the houses for 1 or 2 more percent more people coming every year to live in big cities from smaller ones.
@arz3nal
@arz3nal Ай бұрын
As someone trying to buy their first home in Toronto, $100,000 for a studio apartment sadly sounded like a joke, as it would be much closer to $1,000,000 (even the absolute cheapest would be more than 300k). This was a great video for me though as there is so much unsubstantiated talk around why the prices are unaffordable to Torontonians, I really appreciate this channel's well presented theories and explanations
@ycplum7062
@ycplum7062 Ай бұрын
I wonder if Mainland Chinese trying to park their money outside of China (can't blame them for that) is causing a housing bubble.
@sigrlami
@sigrlami Ай бұрын
That was an example of a monthly payment calculation, so you can do specific calculations for your region easily by multiplication, and more importantly, compare mortgage rates between decades. It's hard to talk about Earth in general but there are many suggestions of a "bubble" in Canada, which stands out because the majority treat housing as an investment vehicle rather than a consumption good.
@pablomg91
@pablomg91 Ай бұрын
Exactly, seems like this discussion always ends in xenophobia here in Toronto.
@ANEEAMA
@ANEEAMA Ай бұрын
For the UK, 20% of the population is 65+, and most of this group hold houses which are almost empty. The solution is to make such houses into two apartments with separate kitchens, so that one of their kids can stay with them without losing privacy. As average kids in the UK are 1.5 which is below replacement(2.01), it is waste of making more houses and destroying the green nature. Another solution is to shift retired citizens to the countryside and rent their city houses to their kids or others, which will increase their income as well rather than keeping a big empty house for one or two people.
@Gronmin
@Gronmin Ай бұрын
​@@sigrlami It's not really a bubble as a bubble generally refers to speculation and similar factors temporarily driving up the price. What is driving up prices right now appears to be a lack of places to live, which is different than a bubble as it's a lack of supply which should gradually fall off in a healthy way and not pop like a bubble.
@jennebaram9881
@jennebaram9881 28 күн бұрын
I watched my neighborhood- where pricing had been fairly stable for decades- become unaffordable overnight. It took about three years sum total- with property prices doubling every year. What I personally witnessed happen was a rich to buy and flip- or purchase investment property to rent at increasing rates. Families were aggressively outbid by investors offering cash. A small bungalow home that the was purchased five years earlier for $200,000 was sold to me for $475,000 (the best deal in the city at the time, but an average price for a nice home I Los Angeles over the previous several years)- identical homes in the neighborhood the following year sold for $800,000 +. Two years after that, they were going for over a $million. The same apartment I rented for $800 a month fresh out of college in the early 2000s is now $2500. It’s all due to investors. Many of them outside investors.
@alphastratus6623
@alphastratus6623 12 күн бұрын
Yes. This whole "old people shouldn't buy and rent to young people" is far off the real problem. If there are more old people try doing this move while competing to less new renters (demographics and stuff) the price would decrease, both the rent and the house prices.
@edwin5419
@edwin5419 Ай бұрын
"Houses are more affordable averaged over 40 countries". Yeah I don't live in 40 countries. I live in a country where the stamp duty (tax paid to purchase a house) on my house was the same as the purchase price of my parents house, which was bigger than mine, in the same suburb.
@gregoryturk1275
@gregoryturk1275 28 күн бұрын
Awesome
@pauljohnson2023
@pauljohnson2023 22 күн бұрын
The problem you are experiencing is buying in a now developed and probably inner suburb. Ask your parents what was 'outside' of their suburb when they moved in. You may have to visit a library and obtain photos of the area to prove to yourself it was not 'the' place to be when they moved in. Cities grow. Buy where you can afford, like your parents did.
@edwin5419
@edwin5419 22 күн бұрын
@@pauljohnson2023 I'm well aware. I was born a year after they moved and remember how this area developed. I can certainly afford it, I was just pointing out the absurdity of the situation. Oh and this has always been a decent suburb.
@rebym
@rebym Ай бұрын
A real estate agent in a second tier city in Canada, Barrie, did some analysis on empty homes and found that 28% of all single family home listings were empty and 48% of all condo listings were empty. So, at least in one city, it is at extreme levels and this really does look like a purely speculative market.
@andresgarciacastro1783
@andresgarciacastro1783 Ай бұрын
Yet the 2,4% of empty chinese houses are called (ghost cities).
@pigsnoutman
@pigsnoutman Ай бұрын
Listed homes are likely to be empty, because they are on sale.
@TimothyCHenderson
@TimothyCHenderson Ай бұрын
@@pigsnoutman Not really. Growing up, we moved 8 times over the course of about 20 years. We lived in our homes while they were listed. If houses are sitting empty while being listed, it usually means they were investment homes. The new development behind us has a whole row of these houses. As soon as they were built (before the sod went in), they had for sale signs on them and sat empty for months (three out of the 6 are still for sale). Drive through a new development near you and you'll see the same phenomenon. For sale signs on newly built houses that no one has lived in yet. These are investment properties meant to turn a profit between the time of purchase and build (which has grown significantly due to labour and materials shortages).
@olafsigursons
@olafsigursons Ай бұрын
@@TimothyCHenderson Anecdote is not data set.
@RJKYEG
@RJKYEG Ай бұрын
Thanks for sharing that, it's very interesting. My theory is that the throttled rate of development underlies the housing market speculation. If supply keeps going up, the idea that the property you own will net you a good return at resale becomes less promising.
@jeremybird5739
@jeremybird5739 Ай бұрын
I think you should have also looked at rent in this video. The canadian city i lived for years in had fairly flat rent rates for a long time. In the last 7 years they have more than doubled. The city centre has vast surface level parking lots which could be towers (based on zoning). A few years ago large parts of the city were up-zoned. With recent interest rate hikes housing costs have come down, because people couldn't afford mortgages. But that has increased pressure on rents. Renters are finding it increasingly difficult to save enough for the down payment. It was a good video.
@madskittls
@madskittls Ай бұрын
I think you also miss a lot by having such a wide lens on the issue. Even country by country, you run into vast differences between housing markets in NYC and Cleveland/Ft Lauderdale.
@Snake369
@Snake369 Ай бұрын
can confirm. southern ontario housing has tripled in the past 20 years, doubled in the last 7-10. Rent has at least doubled in the past 10.
@SteveBluescemi
@SteveBluescemi Ай бұрын
Agreed. House prices vary with interest rates and other factors; with rent prices all those factors are included.
@Line49Design
@Line49Design Ай бұрын
He talks about rent at the 7 minute mark
@hansverbeek822
@hansverbeek822 Ай бұрын
kzfaq.info/get/bejne/Zr-YacuLtqrLoqs.html
@danieldesp0ta995
@danieldesp0ta995 Ай бұрын
mortgages, monopolies and of course zoning rules are the things that most of the times are suffocating around my country
@OritMekonen
@OritMekonen 18 күн бұрын
The real questions needed to be answered is: Is an exponential growth possible? Where does it stop? How dense will cities get before housing shortage is solved? How many people on Earth will exist all at the same time before it becomes a problem? 15B?
@emilyking9558
@emilyking9558 Ай бұрын
I was just thinking I haven’t seen a video from you in a while. Thanks for another great analysis
@IslandHermit
@IslandHermit Ай бұрын
I think another factor you need to look at is the lack of new rental units which forces those who would prefer to rent into the purchase market. You touched on this a bit when mentioning the push-back against high density units from NIMBYs, but very often these days those high density units are condos for purchase, not rentals.
@pablomg91
@pablomg91 Ай бұрын
This is one of the reasons why rent control can make the market worse for newcomers.
@nunyabidness3075
@nunyabidness3075 Ай бұрын
Owners are rarely worried about condo developments unless they really are inappropriate. What people don’t want are people much outside their demographic becoming attracted to their area, and they do not want to worry about the ownership and management of large rental properties not being good neighbors. Finally, rental units have a bad habit of turning into subsidized units, and no one wants the government involved in their area. We bought a place two blocks from a section 8 housing complex. Before Covid, it was basically an old folks home. In fact, that’s what most people thought it was. After Covid, it became something akin to an unsupervised halfway house with parolees, addicts, and mental health patients who loitered constantly. All male between 18 and 45. Needless to say, it changed the character of the neighborhood from quiet residential families and retirees who all said hello to locked doors and empty houses. Fire and police are there weekly, now.
@jasper8291
@jasper8291 Ай бұрын
Renting a house/appartment is probably only a good idea if you are a student and dont make enough money to get a mortgage for a house. Please correct me if I'm wrong
@nunyabidness3075
@nunyabidness3075 Ай бұрын
@@jasper8291 There’s some good vids on that question, and a formula that can help you decide. I made a lot of money off of my personal homes. It’s like I never paid to live in them. OTOH, one of the most financially successful people I’ve ever known never bought real estate, and always rented.
@erisu69
@erisu69 Ай бұрын
I think you miss something in your discussion of the NIMBY phenomenon - I agree that the actions of individual NIMBYs might produce a collective action problem, as you said. But the wider problem is that homeowners directly benefit from a housing shortage, because the value of the property they already own keeps going up. Society is now divided between those who own property, and those who do not. One group wants prices to go up, one wants them to come down. Which one holds the most political power?
@henriksaarno1311
@henriksaarno1311 Ай бұрын
You have a really good point there
@DemolitionManDemolishes
@DemolitionManDemolishes Ай бұрын
I found this whole NIMBY point weak if not outright dishonest. There is an easy way to avoid this - build somewhere else. There is plenty of space for that. Instead they just want to destroy existing communities for a quick buck.
@antoniocruz8083
@antoniocruz8083 Ай бұрын
​​​@@DemolitionManDemolishesYour view is exactly the Nimby's view, build someplace else and there is lots of space. First, someplace else also has Nimbys and second, space is only available very far away from centers, shopping areas, only in difficult terrain, swamps, and in europe it just simply doesn't exist. Nimbys will simply have to share their area, hopefully with houses, not apartments. Actually in some countries, like here in Portugal, there are no Nimbys because courts are slow, people have little power and money talks to politicians. There is here a housing crisis because only millionaire housing is built, where the big profit is. Low income people are living 10 per apartment. Dangerous future.
@DemolitionManDemolishes
@DemolitionManDemolishes Ай бұрын
@@antoniocruz8083 Well, your own comment disproves that NIMBYs are the problem. Like you said, in Portugal there are no NIMBYs, yet there is no affordable housing. So the issue must be something else. Im not a NIMBY myself, but in this particular case I sympathise - they bought their houses under one set of rules, and now being forced to accept a worse set of rules (which wont even solve the issue like we established above). Regarding the place for new buildings - lack of "free" space to build is not actually the issue. In fact, even in places like Luxembourg there is enough space to build few high-rise complexes. The actual issue is that most of people (including "poor" people) don't want to live there. That's also why China has an issue with ghost towns - they build whole new towns, but nobody wants to live there. This means people would rather spend higher portion of their monthly income, than move out. Btw, you wrote "simply have to share their area, hopefully with houses, not apartments" - that's the thing though, Joeri is talking about building apartment complexes in places where there used to be houses. Right now you cant just buy some old houses, demolish them, and build few sky-scrappers. This is blocked by zoning laws. So developers want to change these laws, and NIMBYs push against it.
@ronaldderooij1774
@ronaldderooij1774 Ай бұрын
I am a house owner, my mortgage is ending next year. But I fail to see how I profit from increasing value of my house. I live in it. It is not liquidity. My son will profit after I die, but that won't help me. In fact, many taxes are based on house value, so I pay more tax when my house increases in value.
@kenokrend4600
@kenokrend4600 Ай бұрын
Wish the video touched a bit more on how exactly zoning laws worked
@iamagi
@iamagi Ай бұрын
Likely differ to much to be useful to a global audience
@purelizardmilk6598
@purelizardmilk6598 Ай бұрын
The problem is theyre extremely specific to the locality. Other than the specifics, all you can generally say about zoning is stuff like "areas zoned exclusively for single family housing vs mixed use or high density housing". That's a whole different topic honestly
@swiftly_produced2694
@swiftly_produced2694 Ай бұрын
The evolution of the house in the corner was a nice little detail
@MoneyMacro
@MoneyMacro Ай бұрын
and a tasty detail :)
@akarayan
@akarayan Ай бұрын
You did not manage one of the main drivers of increased demand, that no one seems to talk about. That is, significantly fewer people are getting married, and the average age for marriage is much higher than in previous decades. This means where in the past one house or apartment was needed for a man and woman starting in their early 20’s, now for those same 2 people, 2 houses or apartments are needed until their late 30’s, or even throughout their lives. This nearly doubles the demand for housing while supply is restricted. Also, front yards. The worst thing in the world. Seriously.
@kap4020
@kap4020 11 күн бұрын
lol, "front lawns", i.e., set backs. i have yet to see a neighborhood that adequately uses its front lawns. They just end up getting unused, collecting junk, overgrowing. A tree grows on it, if you're lucky. I think it was mostly a way to make sure density stayed low. Ironically how capitalism and socialism start mixing wants people learn they can make the rules. ;)
@keithwollenberg5237
@keithwollenberg5237 11 күн бұрын
He discusses fewer people per household around 4:50.
@AdamEgret
@AdamEgret Ай бұрын
People dont eat their house? Tell that to all the beavers in my Toronto neighborhood.
@gzoechi
@gzoechi 18 күн бұрын
Beavers aren't people🙄🤣
@AdamEgret
@AdamEgret 18 күн бұрын
@@gzoechi Says who? Have you ever spoken to a beaver? They tell me so much about their lives every time I chat with them.
@gzoechi
@gzoechi 18 күн бұрын
@@AdamEgret I think you mean a different kind of beavers, but those don't eat houses. What you do is very confusing🤯
@AdamEgret
@AdamEgret 18 күн бұрын
@@gzoechi No man. Not those kinds of beavers. I'm talking about actual beavers 🦫. The only time the beavers are comfortable talking to me is after I've calmed myself down by dropping a few acid tabs. They really open up once you get to know them. Smart furry little buggers.
@gzoechi
@gzoechi 18 күн бұрын
@@AdamEgret I'll try that. I haven't seen beavers in this area but farmers are complaining about them and recently I even saw a tree almost felled obviously by a beaver some 500m from my home, so they do exist. I hope my wife doesn't get mad when we run out of tabs quicker than usual. I'm not sure what to talk about with beavers. Houses aren't made of wood around here🤔
@irgend_wo
@irgend_wo Ай бұрын
Good to see a new upload!
@thecorpooration
@thecorpooration Ай бұрын
Being from Toronto and hearing some of the issues behind new housing development even on empty land, one other factor to consider in the overall price of homes isn't just the number of new homes being built, but the rate of change in new home construction. What I mean to say is that up until recently the municipal governments are used to a certain amount of new home construction every year and can accurately forecast city utility usage and budget accordingly through taxation and permit fees. With Canada on a drive to import 1m new people into the country every year (and most settling into the big city centres such as Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver) the municipalities are overwhelmed not just with current service expansion today, but also the sudden "acceleration" in the rate of new builds. This means unpredictability, risk, and the need to spend far more and grow services far faster than can be accurately forecast. Hence, if your municipality used to predict the need for a new water filtration system that will service the community needs over the next 7 to 10 years, now the forecast is that such a plant will need to be much larger to cover the 7 to 10 year time span and current taxpayers must finance those costs (and risks going forward) with today's tax bills and permit system. The overall increased rate of expansion and risk is resulting in a much higher rate of taxation for financing this growth and associated risk.
@notcesr7136
@notcesr7136 Ай бұрын
This video is incredible, thank you for making it. I’ll definitely send it to people. Have you considered doing a video on Land Value Taxes?
@lmao4982
@lmao4982 Ай бұрын
It's not really a policy-focused channel beyond central bank stuff, but illustrating the relationship between land rents and speculation would be nice.
@JamielDeAbrew
@JamielDeAbrew Ай бұрын
@@lmao4982land value taxes could incentivise more efficient use of land. Also more efficient use of the resources that made any building on the land and even the labour used to make the building on the land. There’s a cafe near me that was open typical cafe hours for my city (morning and lunch). Another business organised to share the space, and run their own dinner business. Imagine if more spaces did this sort of thing. Rent could be spread across fewer transactions.
@IllIl
@IllIl Ай бұрын
Looking sharp, Joeri! Thanks for another great video :)
@bradleyjohnson4157
@bradleyjohnson4157 24 күн бұрын
Great video! I loved the concept of the three competing theories.
@jokecaproens2272
@jokecaproens2272 Ай бұрын
Thank you for your presentation. 👌
@savonarola831
@savonarola831 Ай бұрын
I live in southern germany in a very exensive city. Worked as a landscaper for around 8 years - got to know sooo many NIMBYs. My favourite one bought a huge peace of land sitting on the side of his own huge peace of land (together almost an hectar in THE best area of living) and whait for it .... Put then pots with tomatoes on it, for which i had to install an automated irrigation because they were sitting so f..ng far away from his mansion. Later he bragged about wanting to put a tiny house on it. This happened after there was some pressure by our communal government on nimbys. What the tiny house meant: lowest possible investment (with high returns regarding rent prices in my city), while - most importantly -still blocking the land for serious development. So no good deed at all (he justified by wanting to make minimal impact on the environment - did i mention his mansion and his big cars?). Called him out on this bs, he became incredibly defensive. Definetly worth losing him as a customer, haha.
@abcdfg4281
@abcdfg4281 Ай бұрын
Gross, of course rich people only invest for themselves and don't mind squeezing the market for profits even if people go homeless
@rutessian
@rutessian 28 күн бұрын
What an ass! How dare he choose what to do with his own property! The community should decide. Everyone in town should gather up and vote on what happens with his land. Just because you own something doesn't mean you have any right to do with it as you please.
@Stoneface_
@Stoneface_ 25 күн бұрын
You don't have the right to tell him what to do with his own property. That's not your business. He has the right to do whatever he wants with it. He should get another landscaper and leave you.
@Stoneface_
@Stoneface_ 25 күн бұрын
​@@rutessianhaha ikr. This "landscaper" has no right to tell anyone what to do with their own property.
@travcollier
@travcollier Ай бұрын
Great work. Thanks for narrowing down the plethora of theories (most of which are post-hoc justifications) to a set of actually decent ones... And of course the anwer to which one causes what we're seeing is the usual "yes, all of the above"
@seasidescott
@seasidescott 27 күн бұрын
USA: my buddy works for the water department locally and more than a quarter of homes aren't being lived in even though many homes are not listed as vacant. Just being held off the market. Banks or investment firms have the lawn mowed and minimal landscaping with lights on timers but no one living there ever. Makes it hard to fix leaking pipes when owners are listed as the obscure trust names.
@scpatl4now
@scpatl4now Ай бұрын
Large corporate investors buying up all the housing stock and raising rent (over 67,000 units in Atlanta alone). NIMBYs who block any new housing in areas people want to live and also block increases in density. Those are the big reasons
@krissp8712
@krissp8712 Ай бұрын
Yeah that does line up with all three of the points at 1:16 tbh.
@heldercaze6333
@heldercaze6333 Ай бұрын
Have a good video explaining this in: how money works.
@Yaotzin86
@Yaotzin86 Ай бұрын
Large corporate investors are not remotely "buying up all the housing stock". The real estate market is gigantic and dominated by homeowners.
@bandqpine1690
@bandqpine1690 Ай бұрын
@@Yaotzin86 last quarter up to 25% were purchased by large investors, and this doesnt even include small investors who are wealthy that own between 2 and 15 properties, of which there are millions of these types of landlords
@scpatl4now
@scpatl4now Ай бұрын
@@Yaotzin86 The 3 biggest companies in Atlanta own 20% of all housing stock...all of it. I find that to be problematic since they outbid first time owners, and they are also driving up prices by taking homes for sale out of circulation and into the rental market where they have been shown to collude and raise rents.
@Allaiya.
@Allaiya. Ай бұрын
NIMBYs suck. They're mostly boomers. I am watching a housing task force for my city that's happening this year & the letters received so far against the ideas of rezoning & more dense housing are almost all boomer home owners & lifelong middle-age residents who want to keep others out. Here are some of the comments I saw in their letters, all from suburban boomers 1) more dense housing means more dog poop & traffic 2) it isn't the cities job to ensure everyone who wants to can live there 3) Young families only want SFR - they don't want townhomes, quadplexes, or duplexes - they want a large yard 4) a lot were upset about being called a vocal minority by one of the non-profit housing employees & they don't think of themselves as NIMBYs 5) More people = more potholes (silly when you think more dense, walkable areas probably means less cars),
@oldstix
@oldstix Ай бұрын
I'm a boomer and I agree. The homeowners in the burbs are horrified of crime and higher taxes. And of course, anybody who doesn't look like them.
@Stoneface_
@Stoneface_ 25 күн бұрын
​@oldstix everyone should be horrified of crimes and higher taxes lol wtf
@windfall35
@windfall35 21 күн бұрын
Why would anyone (of any age) whose invested in a home and a neighbourhood want to support an initiative that would put their house in the shade, increase local traffic and congestion, overwhelm local services and increase criminal? Communities are planned for a reason…
@SquarishLink
@SquarishLink 21 күн бұрын
@@oldstix this reads like an insane person wrote this. 99% of people want less crime, less taxes and less traffic.
@Allaiya.
@Allaiya. 21 күн бұрын
@@windfall35 Except none of that actually happens most of the time. It’s just “a fear” people screech. If that was true then all European cities would be crime ridden. & where I live they already built the road infrastructure first to accommodate more people & it’s one of the safest areas in the country.
@jackhaufoltred2405
@jackhaufoltred2405 Ай бұрын
Most comprehensive study I've seen in a while about the topic.
@FelixRisingOriginal
@FelixRisingOriginal 13 күн бұрын
An alternative to NIMBY theory in Australia is 1) trained construction workers are less available (on the back of a cut to funding for TAFE in the 2010s) 2) cost of construction materials has risen rapidly 3) rising property prices lead to increased land banking because just having a block of land is netting very good returns (really part of speculative investment) 4) council approval rates are low, with increased problems with construction quality leading to longer time to market for new builds. Points 1 and 2 can also be seen in the very high rate of construction and development businesses collapsing in NSW Australia (some 500 companies have folded in NSW alone). Construction company collapses is a feature all across Australia
@christopherdamiano4233
@christopherdamiano4233 Ай бұрын
Great video, I have done quite a bit of research on this and I agree with your conclusion. Restrictive zoning and obstacles to building (NIMBYs) are the key issue with the current housing market. The other factors certainly play a role as well though.
@Danji_Coppersmoke
@Danji_Coppersmoke Ай бұрын
#3 - Low mortgage rate to affordability conclusion is wild. Yes, monthly cost is lower but AFFORDABILITY.. well you need to consider "Cost to (income - other living costs) ratio " I think . Low monthly payment as affordability is something a car dealer salesperson would say.. lol
@Yaotzin86
@Yaotzin86 Ай бұрын
That would make housing affordability decline if there was, say, a food cost crisis. How is that helpful? It would just misinform people about the nature of the problem.
@Danji_Coppersmoke
@Danji_Coppersmoke Ай бұрын
@@Yaotzin86 I am not sure I understand your comment. Maybe I should clarify that if the number "( Cost of Housing / (Income - other living cost) ) " is higher, it becomes less affordable. So if food cost more and everything else the same, housing affordability goes down since you have less money to pay for.
@thelight3112
@thelight3112 Ай бұрын
Yeah lol, it's like saying a $70k SUV is "affordable" because the dealer will finance it over 8 years.
@shane_rm1025
@shane_rm1025 Ай бұрын
It is literally a factor in whether a person can afford it or not. Unless you're buying cash, but how many working people buy houses with cash?
@xXdnerstxleXx
@xXdnerstxleXx Ай бұрын
Yeah the definition is just plain stupid. It says that since interest rates are low, mortgages are now affordable. That is BS. That part of the price moved into the asset price. Higher asset price, more interest to pay, just not relative to the price. I'd love to see expensive mortgages again. They would drive down prices by a lot.
@rogerwood2864
@rogerwood2864 29 күн бұрын
Airbnb allows people who already have money to purchase multiple "homes;" which are effectively taken off the market and do not act as domiciles for local residents. There are currently 622 Airbnb rentals in downtown Vancouver alone. There are over 10,000 in the entire lower mainland (Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond, etc). Extrapolated over every city in the country and you can see how the housing problem was created.
@sulamy1955
@sulamy1955 Ай бұрын
Great video Joeri, congratulations!
@hpenvy1106
@hpenvy1106 Ай бұрын
A factor for Germany and possibly Europe: When my grandparents both built their own house, they had to built a second living unit inside the house for state subsidies. So you had a 2 party house which is now lived in by 1 party. Or my uncles house; once 3 parties, now just one. The rising of household wealth led to consolidation within houses, so less people are living in more space. At the same time 5 students share a flat in Berlin.
@ImaskarDono
@ImaskarDono Ай бұрын
I doubt so. Europe has almost twice lower living space per person than the USA.
@hpenvy1106
@hpenvy1106 Ай бұрын
@@ImaskarDono Europoors have 112 people living in 1 square kilometer. USA has 37 people per square kilometer. So of course we have to share less space.
@thomas6502
@thomas6502 Ай бұрын
Love the channel and topic. Thank you! Perhaps not understanding the difference between monthly payment and total cost explains some of the concern about dangerous lack of financial education among consumers. Fwiw, the ratio between the cost of the house and a consumer's savings and/or annual income is why some near us haven't sold or bought... that delta seems to be higher today than it's been in the past, and that seems like a metric that ought to move in a more narrow range unless scarcity or one of these other factors is a confounder..?
@markferguson7563
@markferguson7563 Ай бұрын
The innate crux of why properties in Canada, and Australia - and, this is also true for England, as opposed to Britain; likewise with the US, too - is irrefutably due to one factor, and that is buttressed in large-scale immigration programs. This is then exacerbated with supply not keeping up with demand. So, all of the other aspects, which are espoused by the host and, indeed, with all those people posting comments regarding this, that or something else (although certainly having validity) is ostensibly just waffling on in a sea of self-serving semantics. Because in any of these jurisdictions that are fully dependent upon fueling their GDP’s via importing consumers, if enough properties aren’t constructed to cope with demand, then the dire side-effect is OVER PRICED properties. David Ricardo and, particularly with Henry George, were theorizing and espousing comments and, indeed, warnings on all of the negative nuances impacting real estate prices. Apropos to Henry George, way back in 1881 - two years after his book, ‘Progress and Poverty’ was published he told a senate hearing during the Garfield administration that: “The overt essence of why property values should in crease is a result of productivity, and not speculation.” Alas, here we are over 140 years after Henry George wrote ‘Progress and Poverty’ and, also, 207 years since David Ricado wrote the ‘Law of Rent’, we have politicians and captains of industry in Australia, Canada, Britain, and the US who missed reading their perspectives. But there is a far, far greater detriment to consider for all of these nations that have implemented large-scale, and, moreover, non-discriminatory immigration schedules. And that is to ponder the severe sociological impairments that will come to bear upon these societies being fractured on race, culture and, worst of all, religion. Quite simply, immigrant groups from non-Anglo/European and, more so, non-Christian cradles have been over the past 20-30 years that they have become culturally insular colonies/enclaves. Thus, it’s only a short time away before these groups organise against these societies in their own parliaments. To garner this pending horror most assuredly comes to pass in Britain, with hundreds of thousands of Muslims rallying in pro-Palestinian, and anti-Israel rallies from the middle of October.
@Spitefulrish
@Spitefulrish 23 күн бұрын
I’ve just moved away from New Zealand because the cost of living (largely housing) as just blown out of control. Housing is up to 10-15x the annual salary
@PWingert1966
@PWingert1966 Ай бұрын
In the Condo market in Ontario, we have an additional issue. Many of the buildings that have a high number of empty units for sale also are older buildings with higher fees. This tends to cause buyers to gravitate instead toward newer buildings with lower fees. The result is that those older buildings tend to sit on the market for a lot longer. Most freehold single-family dwellings that are not condos do not have that fee built-in and instead must be estimated by the purchaser and they often assume that the maintenance can be pushed down the road.
@RjakVegas
@RjakVegas 18 күн бұрын
The problem with well-reasoned, data-driven arguments like this is that the only conclusion you can draw is “if this ever changes, it will be decades away, and there’s nothing you can do about it, so get used to the idea of dying in your parked car as the end of retirement.”
@keithwollenberg5237
@keithwollenberg5237 11 күн бұрын
It's a little better than that. Once you retire and no longer need income, you can live in any part of the country, or a different country altogether. As the narrator explains at about the 5:00 mark, there could be some rural housing for which the demand is reduced. There is good evidence of that happening in many Canadian communities. So the downside is not retiring to your parked car, but to a community that is probably smaller than you would have liked, with less pleasant weather, and fewer services and amenities than you would have liked, and where all the friends and associates you have built up over your life do not live. I believe that Canadians have a reasonable expectation of better, and should demand it from their government, but it is a notch above living in your car.
@aszhara2900
@aszhara2900 Ай бұрын
Vienna is the prime example of how to handle housing. The problem is that this system works because everything else works as well. One of, if not the most effective public transport system, constant building of new housing complexes, high quality healthcare at a very low cost, (mostly) high-quality education for free, location effectively forces a lot of transportation routes within Europe to go through Austria, a country which is very rich itself, high amount of disosable income, and the politicians can't ruin it (not for a lacking of trying) because the government collapses every year due to corruption scandals. It's almost like you have to invest into society to make it work. Also, I'm pretty sure the IMF doesn't take into account the stagnating wages, increasing the cost of houses relatively to available income.
@chefscircle6133
@chefscircle6133 Ай бұрын
is income tax high in austria?
@aszhara2900
@aszhara2900 Ай бұрын
@@chefscircle6133 depends on what you mean by high, but except for the highest bracket, which is set way too low, it's reasonable imo
@NoctLightCloud
@NoctLightCloud Ай бұрын
I was born in Austria and I'm glad that I don't live in Vienna. Hardly anyone outside of Vienna likes Vienna and Viennese people, and I'm pretty sure that it's only a matter of time until the renting crisis swaps over to here, as well. So there's nothing to really praise there, as house prices in Austria are expensive just like everywhere else in Western Europe. I earn 2300€ net/month and I can't afford a car & house purchase. The only folks that can afford it are those who inherit something and sell it off. The loans are crazy. I'm actually considering leaving for a cheaper country as I'm not willing to be merely renting my whole life. I want a house, as most people.
@dunstalker
@dunstalker Ай бұрын
@@chefscircle6133 crazy high and progressive as well. If you own a business or are a wealthy person, you can be taxed up to 50%!!! Compare it with Czechia right next to it, where as a business owner we pay a 8% income tax! very reasonable!
@NoctLightCloud
@NoctLightCloud Ай бұрын
​@@chefscircle6133no, the income tax alone isn't high per se, but the overall taxation (income tax, pension tax, social security tax) can quickly amass to 40~50% of your gross income. And with quickly, I mean as soon as you earn a bit more than the average person💀
@jarydhunter
@jarydhunter Ай бұрын
Love your videos! I especially love that you include data visualizations to back up any claims you are making. But, I do have one suggestion that for your line plots showing changes over time with three categories, instead of just showing the country flags next to each line if you could put a border around the specific country with the colour you assigned to it. I found it was difficult to tell sometimes which colour was which country at a glance. Thanks again for this wonderful content!
@michaborski7383
@michaborski7383 Ай бұрын
Very nice video, thanks
@frankbaars1880
@frankbaars1880 Ай бұрын
I think Peter Boelhouwer makes a great point. It’s short term policy’s that contribute aswell. Ultimately you need more places to live.
@Blipblorpus
@Blipblorpus Ай бұрын
I’m surprised you didn’t discuss first time home buyers!
@chronicallymeee
@chronicallymeee Ай бұрын
Re: 13:12, I can't say anything about Toronto, but Vancouver has a very low vacancy rate and a vacancy tax to prevent vacant homes. CMHC (Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation) reports a 0.9% vacancy rate for 2023. Anecdotally, the only units I know of going vacant for longer than a few weeks are unsafe and unliveable, or they are someone's primary residence who is away for an extended period of time. (For example, my mum spent two months with my brother and his wife when they had their first baby together, and he lives in a different city, so her house was vacant from an outside perspective, but in no way would it be able to be long term housing for someone else.)
@konserv
@konserv 29 күн бұрын
There are a lot of small 4-5 story apartment buildings in Europe. With a commerce on the first floor. They're extremely comfortable - you have a nice large apartment in a district with small commerce (coffee, pizzas, barbershops, etc.). They eat much less space. And together with good public transportation you may have a nice cozy, comfortable and efficient city. Both extremes (single family homes and huge high-rise apartment buildings) are awful.
@JonathonC-iq9ih
@JonathonC-iq9ih Ай бұрын
The real reason housing is so expensive? Greed. That's the only reason, anywhere on the face of the earth. It's pure greed.
@SverreMunthe
@SverreMunthe Ай бұрын
NIMBY isn't the whole answer. Not even close. In Oslo and many other cities around Europe, the local governments couldn't care less about what you want or not. If they want to build new houses, they will, and it will probably have little to no effect on their popularity, maybe even the opposite. So why don't they? Could it be so simple as to the fact that they are, for the most part, house owners themselves, and they want the price of their house to be as high as possible. 😮
@geolibertarian74
@geolibertarian74 Ай бұрын
Isn't that still nimbyism?
@Kurainuz
@Kurainuz Ай бұрын
Here in madrid most politicians, specially on the right side have a lot of real state investments themselves or their family. There is 20k people with over 11 houses themselves while most people cant aford rent or the 20% of the mortage that banks do not finance. I would say it works as they sadly, they get higher return on their investments, get the non rich people out of their neighborhoods, and the common people cant do anything about market prices
@rupertvass8793
@rupertvass8793 Ай бұрын
that is just the politicians being the nimbys
@chiplangowski3298
@chiplangowski3298 13 күн бұрын
It all boils down to too many people wanting to live in the same area. A house is super expensive in San Diego, Denver or Seattle. But you can buy a house for $50K in Flint, Michigan. It isn't that people can't afford to buy a house, they can't afford to buy a house where they want to live.
@RobertWF42
@RobertWF42 Ай бұрын
Something else to consider is while demand for housing increases with population growth and rural to urban migration, the supply of land for building new homes remains fixed or decreases. Big cities are sort of like islands - land for new subdivisions cannot be created out of thin air but has to be bought from willing sellers.
@philipberthiaume2314
@philipberthiaume2314 Ай бұрын
Thank you for this video. Housing starts in my city are up significantly in 2023, including the transition of post covid commercial/office spaces into residential. Which is convenient as a lot of it is near public transit hubs.
@ye_zus
@ye_zus Ай бұрын
Nice video, interesting to see NZ's context mentioned. A couple of points that weren't discussed: Other changes in NZ laws also contributed to lowering/halting rent increases: - Removal of interest deductability for landlords (meaning interest could not be written off as a business expense), although this has been recently reversed by the new government - Restricting amount of annual rent percentage increase and only allowing one increase per year - Easier rental contracts for renters plus removal of no-cause terminations Also one thing to look out in that graph is that it is a ratio between income and rent. Do not be fooled, rent has not fallen in gross. And Auckland is not the region increasing its supply the fastest (that would be Canterbury). In fact the graph most clearly says something about wages, not rent prices. It shows that Auckland incomes are growing faster than elsewhere, rather than housing supply being expanded.
@nixes1636
@nixes1636 Ай бұрын
Such a great video. Totally agree with your analysis. Nice that you have so much proof. Going to share it with family. So they are smarter about it too.
@petewilliamson2609
@petewilliamson2609 Ай бұрын
I like your take on the house as asset versus consumption good and believe the study at 16:10 only makes sense as an asset. My perception in Canada is that housing has become more unaffordable on a day-to-day basis i.e. if housing costs in the 1970s consumed 25-33% of the pay package, now that ratio has increased significantly... thank you; wonderful presentation.
@TheAgentOfDeath
@TheAgentOfDeath Ай бұрын
Worked in Construction in the U.S. The issue is that the U.S government has put little to no investment into the construction sector (everything is going towards finance & military). The construction industry is either mega corporations or small and Mom & Pop Shop. And it's the Mom & Pop Shop construction business which works mostly on houses have very low profit margins something like 10% its sometime less or sometime even more. The small business work on [fix price] contracts meaning they take on the entire risk in case it goes over budget which can cause some of them to close down. With large construction companies they work [time and material] contracts meaning if they go over budget they can just charge more. The government really needs to help out the small business because they are the main one working on houses.
@Weedsethesecond
@Weedsethesecond Ай бұрын
Great video, as always. And I have to say, your editing skills have inproved a lot over te last couple of years!
@patutinskiy
@patutinskiy 20 күн бұрын
Thank you! 3d reason was so surprising for me personally, never have thought about this from such angle.
@paulbuchanan7781
@paulbuchanan7781 7 күн бұрын
The ratio didn't go down in Auckland because of the zoning changes. All the zoning changes have resulted in is mini-suburbs of townhouses popping up in the outer regions on the fringes of farm land, nowhere near transport or business hubs. The inner suburbs populated by the wealthy are largely untouched. Affordable family homes on the outskirts of the city are being replaced with several much more expensive townhouses without the required infrastructure to support the increases in populations. All of these new developments are significantly more expensive than the housing they're replacing. The zoning changes came in the same time as: 1) Interest rates going up. 2) Government removed landlords' ability to tax write-off upkeep costs and even the interest on their mortgages 3) The government introduced a 'bright-line' where if a property was sold within a period after buying it, a capital gains tax would apply (the closest thing NZ has to a CGT). 4) Immigration practice changed and immigrants were heavily incentivised to settle outside of Auckland 5) Auckland had become so unaffordable and undesirable many people were moving to other cities like Tauranga - driving their prices up 6) New Zealand has become so unaffordable and undesirable we're now seeing record emigration. Simply put; Speculation became less desirable. Maintaining a rental portfolio became less desirable. Demand for housing in Auckland slowed down. I'd argue zoning had very little to with it. I would go as far to say the changes exclusively benefited developers, and the changes were likely introduced specifically for this as many of our politicians and high level public servants are stake-holders and beneficiaries of the real estate industry.
@krissp8712
@krissp8712 Ай бұрын
Nice to see NZ be mentioned at 7:00, very interesting result! I had no idea that had happened with Auckland density zoning.
@Cotswolds1913
@Cotswolds1913 Ай бұрын
Yea now you can find multi-unit buildings on the same street as single family homes, it’s amazing.
@MRJP
@MRJP Ай бұрын
Some economists doubt whether the success is as big as presented, as rents prices go in cycles. While building applications have gone up, electricity connections seem to stay the same, leading to the question whether more homes are actually being released to the market in Auckland. In addition, by only looking at prices, it hides the size of the house being rented/sold. While I think there is some truth to NIMBYism hypothesis, it is also an idea developers like to push, as it allows them to gentrify and increase the value of their land.
@laurencefraser
@laurencefraser Ай бұрын
@@MRJP The NIMBY issue also routinely contributes to excessive costs, or outright failures, of public transport plans in many places. It's not the only problem, but it's a provably fairly large contributor.
@MRJP
@MRJP Ай бұрын
@@laurencefraser No one is argueing NIMBYism is desirable. The point is that the evidence that NIMBYism significantly increase house prices and zoning laws changes improve affordability is not very convincing, while Joeri presents it basically as the strongest contender by presenting it as the general mechanism behind 'construction failure', ignoring the evidence against this theory.
@lewiswood1693
@lewiswood1693 Ай бұрын
Too bad NACT immediately removed the law labour put in that made the new zoneing rules be even broader in Auckland and apply to other city's. Their new policy allows city's to continue to kick the can down the road and has caused house prices to go up and rent prices to surge in response.
@juusovalli9690
@juusovalli9690 Ай бұрын
Biggest problem is that houses are expensive in urban areas and almost free in rural areas which makes avarage house price data almost useless
@shauncameron8390
@shauncameron8390 Ай бұрын
Because urban areas have limited but valuable land. Rural areas are affordable because hardly anyone wants to live there unless they're wealthy and not in need to find a job to support themselves.
@JamielDeAbrew
@JamielDeAbrew Ай бұрын
Has the ability for some people to work remotely reduced this difference? Taxpayers should want people (who don’t work remotely) to live closer to their work. Otherwise taxpayers will have to pay for more transportation infrastructure (be it additional road lanes or more public transport capacity)
@2912801821
@2912801821 15 күн бұрын
Great video. Thanks
@hiteshwadhwani5972
@hiteshwadhwani5972 Ай бұрын
Very interesting thought process...
@bope1469
@bope1469 Ай бұрын
Now do a 1 million dollar house at 7%
@kirkdasilva7877
@kirkdasilva7877 18 күн бұрын
Exactly, $4600 at 5% for 25 years if you have the down payment.
@tommybreen9677
@tommybreen9677 Ай бұрын
You’ll own nothing, but be happy.
@PraveenSriram
@PraveenSriram 26 күн бұрын
Well said 😊
@hrthrhs
@hrthrhs 26 күн бұрын
yeah but there's still apartments and townhousing and other types of homes that aren't a house, which in Australia anyway, are still cheap enough for a single person to buy by their 30s for sure.
@Michael-pg7rv
@Michael-pg7rv 25 күн бұрын
In Canada it is quite simple. We are not building houses at the rate that we used to while at the same time our government has immigrated 2M new people over the past 3 years. We were already in a housing crunch and this tipped us over the edge.
@macmac8222
@macmac8222 14 күн бұрын
nice to see you on nebula, another very informative video
@DjDmt
@DjDmt Ай бұрын
In the last 3 years of renting here in Western Australia, my rent has gone from 600 to 730 a week. The house itself has gone from 750-800k to 1.1mill. It's ridiculous, but like anything, the bubble will pop, maybe lol
@leonhenry4861
@leonhenry4861 Ай бұрын
Not if the supply is kept low. Why do you think the governments purposely keep lo amount of homes being built
@windwaker0rules
@windwaker0rules Ай бұрын
didn't you watch the video, its not a bubble its just "lack of supply"
@DjDmt
@DjDmt Ай бұрын
@@windwaker0rules all supply shocks create a bubble, doesn't matter what market you're in. When the time comes when there is more supply than demand, that's when the bubble pops.
@windwaker0rules
@windwaker0rules Ай бұрын
@@DjDmt Well considering our market is used for money laundering the demand is basically infinite. Which is why you can find empty properties to squat in all over the place, i have no idea how this channel got a figure about how many empty properties we have when no one has ever done research on the topic.
@DjDmt
@DjDmt Ай бұрын
@@windwaker0rules the empty properties figures come from the census, done back in 2021. The figure is debatable though because of covid lockdowns, some people were living at other peoples houses etc, but yes, there are a lot being bought by investment firms and foreign investors. When we head into a recession and people start losing their jobs there will be a correction of sorts.
@trunkage
@trunkage Ай бұрын
In Australia, Negative Gearing is a major culprit. When they tried to get rid of it, house prices went down 20% and they repealed the law
@ThePolaroid669
@ThePolaroid669 11 күн бұрын
It never became 'law'.
@andhw9187
@andhw9187 8 күн бұрын
Great video!!
@WilliamSantos-cv8rr
@WilliamSantos-cv8rr Ай бұрын
Sydney alone has 160 thousand homes empty, for various reasons. But mainly for renovation and selling. Once the renovation is done they do not live in or rent to get the highest price and it is getting out of hand because everyday more and more are put on sale and they do not get sold.
@TheSpigottedYahtzee
@TheSpigottedYahtzee Ай бұрын
I love how the NIMBY is a Karen 😅
@DemolitionManDemolishes
@DemolitionManDemolishes Ай бұрын
Thats like 101 of propaganda
@richardbloemenkamp8532
@richardbloemenkamp8532 Ай бұрын
Had to look it up as a non-native-English-speaker but it was exactly what I was thinking: "Karen (slang) is a term used as slang typically for a middle-class white American woman who is perceived as entitled or excessively demanding."
@Arhnuld
@Arhnuld Ай бұрын
Honestly, when you draw a graph with 2 lines: 1. Net immigration 2. Net housing added You will see that overall, the added housing every year has been relatively stable over the past 50 years, while immigration has truly skyrocketed in comparison. In larger countries, this is even more exaggerated if you look per region instead of per country. This is because in larger countries there will still be a lot of empty homes in economically unnatractive regions. The Netherlands is an ideal country to draw this graph for. This leads me to a simple conclusion: 1. Housing supply is not to blame, since no matter how much demand there is, there is only so much than can be built each year. Even with extensive government measure, there is no way to keep up with demand. This rules out 'construction failure' as it is simply only a small percentage of the problem. 2. Indeed lower interest rates have lead to price inflation, as supply is not increased with higher prices (see 1). So financialization as a problem is correct, and can be seen as 'blowing a bubble'. 3. Speculation only works with strong demand and will further increase 'bubbling', but can be countered with government measures. And thus the cause is simply 'competition' and the only 'solution': The people saying increasing unemployment/recession is the only thing that will bring prices down are correct, since unemployment is also strongly correlated to immigration and both seem to be the strongest driving factors in demand. It's either that or prevent immigration through government measures, but just like increasing construction, I don't see that as being politically feasible as both paths will be conflicting with human rights. Change my mind please :-)
@secretarchitect288
@secretarchitect288 25 күн бұрын
In the UK last year, 190k new houses were constructed. In the same year net immigration was 720k. That's over 3.75 new people for every new house. In my opinion, this is now the main driver of house price inflation.
@Arhnuld
@Arhnuld 24 күн бұрын
I agree. This fierce competition on the housing market in certain regions is leading to increased mortgage lending despite higher interest rates. This makes the instrument of interest rates unable to combat inflation. I think lower rates are out of the question for the foreseeable future. I think if graphs were published about the current money supply, they would be going up again. In such circumstances, another drop in supply would surely lead to another wave of inflation in the way meanstream economists measure it :) But I expect people saying this will be ridiculed by economists. It's transitory, right?
@Whatisthisstupidfinghandle
@Whatisthisstupidfinghandle 24 күн бұрын
Xenophobe
@daviddelgado6090
@daviddelgado6090 12 күн бұрын
An additional element is wages have not kept up with the cost of living. In the US the national minimum wage has not changed since 2009.
@panzers9484
@panzers9484 Ай бұрын
Hi, I live in Canada and I’ve noticed a lot of older neighborhoods are being town down to build new housing. So my question is ; if an old single family house is demolished and a new one built in its place, does that still count as new supply?
@JamielDeAbrew
@JamielDeAbrew Ай бұрын
Good question. Sometimes a single house is torn down and replaced with multiple units or apartments. That might be a net supply increase. Some people live in share houses/apartments. Because of this, supply of rooms matters. If a 2 bedroom home was replaced with a 4 bedroom home, then there would be a supply increase of 2 bedrooms.
@personzorz
@personzorz Ай бұрын
Effectively, infinite demand when prices are expected to go up by people with access to credit, getting fresh new money in the form of loans triggering a self fulfilling prophesy on the part of the class with access to credit. Housing can either be housing or an investment. It can never be both except for a short time.
@shane_rm1025
@shane_rm1025 Ай бұрын
Corn is still food even though corn futures exist. I don't see what makes housing any different.
@personzorz
@personzorz Ай бұрын
@@shane_rm1025 If you got the entire population to buy corn as their retirement investment because the price was sure to go up, and everyone and anyone buying long corn futures regardless of if they were involved in the use of corn, it wouldn't be food for long,.
@Robert-un3cf
@Robert-un3cf Ай бұрын
@@shane_rm1025 Commodities are generally terrible investments.
@joseroeder5492
@joseroeder5492 Ай бұрын
Miami builds lots of apartments and sold as investments. These buildings sit empty and at night are like black holes in the skyline.
@bandqpine1690
@bandqpine1690 Ай бұрын
YEP! ive seen this in many cities myself, australians are realizing and complaining of this too
@LTEAndroid
@LTEAndroid Ай бұрын
Yup I've lived in Orlando and now South Florida. I see a lot of new construction just for them to end up mostly vacant and charging $2500+ a month it's sad
@JamielDeAbrew
@JamielDeAbrew Ай бұрын
Sitting empty is so wasteful. A waste of the land and the depreciating building on the land. Even an inefficient use of the building materials and labour that made the buildings. A vacancy tax would help.
@rupertvass8793
@rupertvass8793 Ай бұрын
@@JamielDeAbrew yeah even if there aren't many vacancies say 2% it would do no harm (it costs nothing to do) and people say it's only 1 or 2 % of houses are vacant but when there are hundreds of thousands to millions of houses in a city it adds up to being a large amount eg: if there are 500k houses and 2% are vacant that is 10k homes being vacant
@bobbyj731
@bobbyj731 Ай бұрын
I can't speak for Canada or Australia but, in the US Abnb has become huge and created a huge influx of investors. Investors buy up an ever increasing number of properties often using cash and out bidding the regular buyers. How does short term rentals get calculated in vacancies? These types of investments are reducing the supply for people that just want a place to live. Also, when it comes to apartments, there is a landlord rental site that is being sued by the Az attorney general for colluding to artificially hold prices higher then they normally would have. The landlords were literally told to hold their prices at a certain level and since all did the same thing the renters had no choice but to pay a ridiculous price. So things like this are playing in to prices as well.
@kevincronk7981
@kevincronk7981 Ай бұрын
7:25 the drop in rent in Aukland and rise in rent in the rest of NZ appears to have started very close together, is it possible that this is caused by the higher rent somehow being shifted from aukland to the rest of the country? i.e. from either people moving out of aukland or just not as many people moving in
@JamielDeAbrew
@JamielDeAbrew Ай бұрын
Did this happen around a similar time that remote work increased (ie working from home)? If yes, I wonder if people choose to move further from their workplace to get more rooms at the same price (eg a home office, hobby room, guest room etc…) If so, what happened when this flowed through the market? Did it eventually lead to un under-supply of rooms - eventually pushing up the national average rental price?
@mhpereir
@mhpereir Ай бұрын
I don't know if the "excessive speculation" accounting was done correctly. If a secondary property is being rented in the short term with Airbnb for example, that would classify it as "occupied", when in reality it isn't... vacation=/=living. You would need to look at second/third+ property ownership, instead of vacant housing, in order to look at investment properties in more detail. A lot of cities in Canada are pushing back on short-term rentals in major cities, exactly because this has been identified as a significant slice of the problem ...
@bandqpine1690
@bandqpine1690 Ай бұрын
amen , this is taking up a huge percent of the market, and in a market of tight margins, 5% allocated to short rentals or vacay homes can kill an area
@Yaotzin86
@Yaotzin86 Ай бұрын
Why isn't that occupied? Short term housing demand is real too.
@lmao4982
@lmao4982 Ай бұрын
@@bandqpine1690 sounds profitable just build more homes
@rupertvass8793
@rupertvass8793 Ай бұрын
@@lmao4982 because having housing as short term rentals means it is easy to sell as you don't have to deal with renter protection laws, and also over the same period of time a short term rental will cost more as for example people will spend more when going somewhere for an emergency or holiday
@lmao4982
@lmao4982 Ай бұрын
@@rupertvass8793 yeah just build more
@Zed_Oud
@Zed_Oud Ай бұрын
*Progress and Poverty: An Inquiry into the Cause of Industrial Depressions and of Increase of Want with Increase of Wealth: The Remedy* (1879) by Henry George #2 best selling book of the 1890s worldwide. LVT would have made this all a non-issue. Instead we got property taxes, because the only ones with more influence than capitalists are landlords.
@guidosalescalvano9862
@guidosalescalvano9862 Ай бұрын
You can also motivate nimbys to allow construction: For instance in the Netherlands you can give priority access to great social housing.
@krolldavid
@krolldavid Ай бұрын
Great summary. This is the best video on the topic from an economic viewpoint that I’ve watched. The only thing I would like to add is that NIMBYism was perhaps not the starting point but actually an inherently conservative planning system, which has been created to protect the character of places. An understandable aim but of course it is not good for new construction.
@Kalarandir
@Kalarandir Ай бұрын
I am going to go with it's a combination of a lot of differing factors. It would also have been interesting to have seen a comparison of housing as a percentage of household income.
@maxrush206
@maxrush206 Ай бұрын
Construction is also a lot more difficult for one, a lot more people are divorced or single these days and almost no one wants to live with there parents so by just labour numbers it's a lot more difficult to keep up. When you had most people married one person was needed to build a house for two or more people, now we have a lot of one person condo buildings and no one really mentions that. Also as someone who's worked in construction for 15+ years the level of regulations and new more expensive building requirements is a lot. New houses need $50-100k more in extra things like insulation, heat exchangers, arc fault breakers, fire alarms, 2x6 framing, etc. and that adds a lot of tax. Another cost is the fact that 30% of a new home cost is taxes and fees. Your average home in Ontario Canada is $300k of just taxes. And lastly the homes built pre 80's aren't in good condition any more. I think before that it was easy to build because everything was new construction but now there's a lot of people dedicated to just remodeling/rebuilding older houses. Side point is the fact that no one wants to do construction any more, here one person is joining construction for every 7 retirees
@maxrush206
@maxrush206 Ай бұрын
also vacancies in canada are sub 2% in some areas. almost all cities are below 5%. that's with all the money laundering in the canadian property market
@regieegseg8588
@regieegseg8588 Ай бұрын
Can you explain why no one wants to work in construction in canada?
@maxrush206
@maxrush206 Ай бұрын
@@regieegseg8588 because people thinks it's a bad job or they're told to 'do something better.' people literally make $100,000's running construction businesses and even as an employee the pay is really good. When I was in University people thought it was funny I worked in construction and a lot of them asked me why i didnt get a 'better job' when all of them were stepping on each others throats to get $17 an hour jobs(graduated com sci). Everyone thinks it's a lot worse than it is and no one wants to join
@robgrey6183
@robgrey6183 Ай бұрын
@@regieegseg8588 Scary power tools. Mean bosses. Can't spend half the day playing with your phone.
@regieegseg8588
@regieegseg8588 Ай бұрын
@@robgrey6183 interesting. may be pay is shit?
@HagayPeleg-bo8gp
@HagayPeleg-bo8gp 24 күн бұрын
Excellent, thanks!
@danbondarenko7894
@danbondarenko7894 18 күн бұрын
Great, informative video. I am grateful.
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