OMG this is amazingly simple and so clear!!! Why cant my professors explain it like you? THANK YOU!!!

This is the video I was looking for. Thanks for this!

Very helpful. Although I was searching for clips to explain Monte Carlo methodology used in Project Management and found this video. It relates the practical use case to the concept perfect. Very easy to understand! Thank you!

You are really kind to share this, thanks!

12:25-13:40 I've been looking for this explanation everywhere.. thanks !

This video is wonderful, good explanation of the analysis

Sir this is a great video. Thank you for putting this out.

If you are getting Num Errors check the Randbetween function. In general, it should be (total number of rows - 2). So if you have 252 rows you randbetween should by between 1 and 250.

Crystal clear! Really very well explained. Congrats and many thanks

Thanks for the video! one question,what is your horizontal axis in your example? is it days? So when we are asked about a particular day, you will give VaR from that particular day distribution?

I use a similar technique, but prefer Index/match with randbetween and use adjusted closing prices. I find the program runs faster that way. I run 30day simulations across 1000 columns and plot the discrete prices that emerge on a histogram. I use it to find likelihood of my options getting exercised across a 30 day perioid. The only problem I find with this technique is you limit your data points to the discrete prices in your sample vs. a continuous probability distribution (e.g. normal curve, lognormal, etc.). In other words, we do not allow for all potential %s into our analysis vs. the actual transactions. Its a good starting point.

Thanks it's an awesome video for a newbie like me

Why do you use the small formula? I was thinking of applying that to 2 stock prices and generate correlated time series.

same videos was published by Garg University "Predicting Stock Price Movement using Monte Carlo Simulations".

Thank you Professor Ramanujan!

Great explanation sir but just one doubt ...Where are we using probability in this...?? and why have we used the exp func...

Awesome video, very clear. Can you explain how to price an option using Monte Carlo simulation?

Bro F4 will put $ symbol. CTR+shift+down arrow will select till last data.

Wont adjusted stock price be better for the analysis?

Would be more accurate if you choose a gaussian distribution around a pre-defined central tendency (of ema of 5 years for instance) instead of a random number choosen by the software. That's how we use it for defining manufacturing tolerances on blueprints. When the machinists make parts, there is alaways a tendency to hit the nominal values, therefore the probability goes down as the value nears upper and lower spec limits (worst case scenarios) . Stock prices follow similar pattern, there is always a tendency to go back to the mean, to the trendline of a certain period. I think it should be a part of the method here. Nice use of excel by the way!

hi everyone, ı need help :/ when ı see date ı saw dates appear in reverse order which one is right

can you make a template available ?

I can't get my columns to be error free - whats the trick? Some are fine, others get the #NUM! error. Thanks!

1:13 Why dont u calculate the change as (price today - price yesterday)/price yesterday = (14.67-14.73)/14.73 ? Why do u use the natural logarithm?

Please make the vedio on utilty calculation of the stock price

Any idea on finding the average of, for example, 1000 simulations? Or maybe even expected value of the average?

can you put the excell file here to download?

Can you kindly provide us with the worksheet please?

It is possible to provide the excel template please?

It would b nice if you could upload the file for us to learn

Dear Option Trader. Please check my understanding of you using the SMALL function. Have I understood you correctly? One way of selecting random values from the "change" set (distribution) is to assume it is Normally or LogNormally distributed, calculate the distribution parameters, and select random values from the distribution you define, as needed. However, you are not doing this, instead, you are selecting the Is this what you intended to do? If so why? What advantage do you think this method has. Thank you.

why are you using ln for daily changes?

I have a question can you help me to solve it please ?

Is there anyway I can reach you?

I am getting number errors in excel shet

this technique gave me a great idea but having all those lines in the graph is unnecessary because this is not technical analysis.

Add concepts of drift and noise and wiener process

great example, but I do not agree with you, your simulation is based upon very old values, in order to make it more accurate you have to add latest days and exclude the old ones as the time passes

This video killed my ears

a few python scripts will do the same thing!!!!!

operators crying in corner

get a more powerful pc dude ahah