Multiplicative Seasonal Forecasting

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Multiplicative Seasonal Forecasting

Рет қаралды 8,311

Күн бұрын

This video demonstrates multiplicative seasonal forecasting for a business with four seasonal periods.
NOTE: At 6:16, there is an error in the amount written and spoken in the calculation of the seasonal average. The correct calculation is 20,000 ÷ 16 total seasons (4 seasons per year × 4 years) = a seasonal averrable of 1,250.
The video ink and audio states 4 seasons but should be 16.
The rest of the video is correct.

Пікірлер: 20

@britishrockguy3229 11 ай бұрын

Since when does Dividing 20,000 by 4 give you1250? Surely it is 5,000?

@The_Business_Doctor 11 ай бұрын

There is a note in the description confirming the calculation is 20,000/16 seasons = 1,250. 16 seasons is 4 years x 4 seasons per year. Hope this helps

@kimani_wj Жыл бұрын

I found this video very helpful. 👍

@The_Business_Doctor Жыл бұрын

I’m glad it was helpful.

@ibex599 2 жыл бұрын

are we dividing 20,000 by 4 seasons ?

@The_Business_Doctor 2 жыл бұрын

Hi Ibex. There appears to be an error in my calculation. That should be divided by a total of 16 seasons observed (4 seasons x 4 years). The average of 1,250 is correct but I wrote and spoke was not. Thank you for noticing that. Mark

@esotandoketani8806 4 ай бұрын

Why is 20,000 ÷ 4 = 1250 but not 5000

@The_Business_Doctor 4 ай бұрын

NOTE: At 6:16, there is an error in the amount written and spoken in the calculation of the seasonal average. The correct calculation is 20,000 ÷ 16 total seasons (4 seasons per year × 4 years) = a seasonal averrable of 1,250. The video ink and audio states 4 seasons but should be 16. The rest of the video is correct.

@LyricallyLit0203 4 ай бұрын

How do i calculate the 2019 forcast, without knowing the demand?

@The_Business_Doctor 4 ай бұрын

For this method you would have to determine , or be provided with, a forecast for the year, which you then take and distribute to the seasons based on the seasonal indexes. So you’re basically working backwards. Hope this helps.

@nanar97 Жыл бұрын

Hi! What if we don't have the annual demand stated in the question, instead the question states "estimate the quarterly demand for the fifth year."?

@The_Business_Doctor Жыл бұрын

Hi Naanar. This method of forecasting requires you to have a forecasting demand for the next year so you can break that down into the seasonal components. Hope this helps. Mark

@princeakpabli7988 3 ай бұрын

please can i get the link to download the book you were using

@The_Business_Doctor 2 ай бұрын

This is the ISBN for the current version of the textbook: 9780137319084, 0137319088 Operations Management: Sustainability and Supply Chain Management (Canadian Edition) 4th Edition by Jay Heizer; Barry Render; Chuck Munson; Paul Griffin