Nassim Taleb on Black Monday, Fed, Market Lessons

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Bloomberg Television

Bloomberg Television

6 жыл бұрын

Oct.16 -- The Black Monday crash was 30 years ago this week. "Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb was a trader for First Boston at the time. He made a lot of money while others lost fortunes. He recounts the experience with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker.

Пікірлер: 126
@mikeblack9109
@mikeblack9109 6 жыл бұрын
The reporter was actually quite respectful and polite this time. Very good, doesn't interrupt
@requiemforamerica8432
@requiemforamerica8432 6 жыл бұрын
Hifza ahmed yeah last time he was just an anti trump ideologue and kept trying to lead the interview and turn it into his own diatribe
@jamrollz
@jamrollz 5 жыл бұрын
He reads the comments lol
@ladgrove
@ladgrove 5 жыл бұрын
He's a great interviewer for NNT. They get on well.
@Regular.Biceps
@Regular.Biceps 4 жыл бұрын
Not a good idea to interrupt NNT
@perezpepito104
@perezpepito104 4 жыл бұрын
He is off the coke now.
@dmonarredmonarre3076
@dmonarredmonarre3076 4 жыл бұрын
This is what happens if you get Tony Soprano to read books
@vytautas456
@vytautas456 6 жыл бұрын
'It's very easy to sell people a seatbelt that only works if there's no accident, it's gonna be very comfortable. If there's an accident, they're gonna die, they're not going to complain.' Brilliant
@adamblomberg
@adamblomberg 4 жыл бұрын
Except their relatives and testing agencies.
@5Gazto
@5Gazto 3 жыл бұрын
That doesn't make sense. What about the victim's relatives?
@FirstLast-tx3yj
@FirstLast-tx3yj 2 жыл бұрын
@@adamblomberg they are also wearing seatbelts... In the markets everybody crashes at the same time
@adamblomberg
@adamblomberg 2 жыл бұрын
@@FirstLast-tx3yj In the markets yeah, not traffic accidents. It would be very obvious when the first hundred dies after wearing a seatbelt, undermining public trust.
@FirstLast-tx3yj
@FirstLast-tx3yj 2 жыл бұрын
@@adamblomberg public trust is also lost in the case of crashes and bailouts where it is known that people hate the politicians during a massive economic crash
@justinwr092
@justinwr092 6 жыл бұрын
Wow I found a youtube gem. Brilliant. The interviewer won't have too many interviews like this in his career. He looks like he's in awe. I'm working my way through all of Taleb's books btw. Life changing stuff.
@philocleandes9302
@philocleandes9302 5 жыл бұрын
His notion of skin in the game is so refreshing. It can be used as a heuristic to cut through so much bullshit.
@joeg8304
@joeg8304 4 жыл бұрын
He's an interesting contrast. As a person, he's a jackass who spouts of mindlessly. In his fields of finance, risk, and statistics he's an insightful force to be reckoned with.
@MrDrey787
@MrDrey787 4 жыл бұрын
@@joeg8304 he's a teddy bear who likes to act snarky on twitter and throw shade at IYI Harvard-Soviet fragilistas in his books. Why do u think hes a jackass?
@colefaulk982
@colefaulk982 3 жыл бұрын
MrDrey787 yea I’ve never quite understood why so many people say this stuff about him. He has his convictions and doesn’t waver from them. I don’t see how that makes him a jackass or someone who just “spouts off mindlessly”
@Value-Investing
@Value-Investing 6 жыл бұрын
Nasim is amazing, I really recommend his books especially if you are a trader or investor, so much to learn from him and so much common sense that nobody cares about in this market!
@nv3796
@nv3796 6 жыл бұрын
Thanks
@nv3796
@nv3796 6 жыл бұрын
Q> Why do people still use the Black Scholes models? NNT’s A> Because they don’t pay for there losses. Some one else pays for their losses.
@kreteman777
@kreteman777 6 жыл бұрын
Love your channel Sven.
@reehji
@reehji 5 жыл бұрын
Hi again, and I just ordered the incerto set ;)
@marvindube3572
@marvindube3572 5 жыл бұрын
Invest with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. really thnx bro will di
@mckeesk
@mckeesk 4 жыл бұрын
14:57 "We had options we had bought for $10,000 . . . they were selling for 17 million."
@jamessalafatinos426
@jamessalafatinos426 3 жыл бұрын
in Yen
@brycelanglotz971
@brycelanglotz971 3 жыл бұрын
$100 -> $170,000 USD
@marcusmarcula
@marcusmarcula 6 жыл бұрын
One of his best interviews, albiet he rarely gives interviews unless they are short or to selective few.
@jackglore4043
@jackglore4043 4 жыл бұрын
nassim if you ever read this i just want to thank you so much... you saved my life.. jack from syria
@FirstLast-tx3yj
@FirstLast-tx3yj 3 жыл бұрын
شو صار معك؟
@joskxy
@joskxy Ай бұрын
great to hear! mind if i ask you what all ideas helped you and how? thanks
@enzodalfiorantunes5365
@enzodalfiorantunes5365 6 жыл бұрын
What a pleasant conversation!
@letsif
@letsif 3 жыл бұрын
One can learn a lot about life in general and human behavior, through understanding how one thing works. Taleb is on one of our teachers.
@wdjaz
@wdjaz 6 жыл бұрын
"It's very easy to sell people a seat belt, that only works if there is no accident." mic drop @ 21:40
@philocleandes9302
@philocleandes9302 5 жыл бұрын
In other words, so much of human need is dependent on only hearing what we want to hear.
@azwan1992
@azwan1992 6 жыл бұрын
Thanks for uploading. This is brilliant.
@KevinPillow
@KevinPillow 5 жыл бұрын
The best part is the last 30 seconds, the Bob Rubin trade
@gordongordon98
@gordongordon98 3 жыл бұрын
This is great stuff. I about to begin my 3rd Taleb book. I am a big fan, also appreciate Peter Lynch, Charlie Munger, Joel Greenblatt...
@yogeeswarpal
@yogeeswarpal Жыл бұрын
The back spread he explains in the 2 minutes is the simplest it comes to explaining buying the OTM options as a portfolio holding.
@danielracovitan9779
@danielracovitan9779 3 жыл бұрын
A legend. And the seatbelt analogy :)
@blah148
@blah148 2 жыл бұрын
the bravery of this guy to actually call out the system is huge. We’re lucky that he’s as good of a teacher as a thinker
@braaitongs
@braaitongs Жыл бұрын
I would love to know which options he bought. I reckon retail investors do not have access to those options.
@Molloy1951
@Molloy1951 6 ай бұрын
Genius. Not only because he understands complex phenomenons but especially because he clearly identifies obvious consequences that just few people do.
@LGseeker
@LGseeker 4 жыл бұрын
Naval from Angellist got me into Nassim 💯
@takashikashiwase3461
@takashikashiwase3461 6 жыл бұрын
Nassim Taleb for Historical Philosopher, Practitioner, Mathematician, writer, and Human
@zelareka
@zelareka 5 жыл бұрын
taleb is a very smart manbaby
@grumfeldvanderspooijwanker1627
@grumfeldvanderspooijwanker1627 2 жыл бұрын
@@zelareka At least he's not an actor.
@Alloverthegolf
@Alloverthegolf 4 жыл бұрын
How about new hunters for black swans isn't timing became better and better for short side of market?
@dundoderdumme3044
@dundoderdumme3044 5 жыл бұрын
Can anyone explain to me how you can be "set up to be harmed by a small move"? Can you buy options on volatility itself? Like a VIX option?
@EnsonPortela
@EnsonPortela 5 жыл бұрын
Dundo Der Dumme no you cannot by options of vix! But you can arrange a position of puts and calls of any asset in a way that if the market moves a little you lose a bit; if the market moves a lot you make a lot! And that is independent of the direction that the underlying market moves!
@dundoderdumme3044
@dundoderdumme3044 5 жыл бұрын
@@EnsonPortela Is there a name for it? Can I look up how it works? I really don't understand how you can aquire such a position with options :D
@EnsonPortela
@EnsonPortela 5 жыл бұрын
Dundo Der Dumme a typical example is that you buy OTM calls and buy OTM puts. If the market moves a little or doesn’t move you lose a bit ( OTMs are cheap). If the market moves a lot your OTMs might become ITMs and you make a lot of money. I have seen options going from 5 cents to 10 dollars. Taleb says on the video that he bought 10k of OTM and sold it for 17M!
@petarz9029
@petarz9029 4 жыл бұрын
yes, you *CAN* buy VIX options, and they are a great way to play volatility. If you are interested in options strategies, just search KZfaq, Zacks has a channel with good options strategy content.
@mikefatah
@mikefatah 6 жыл бұрын
“Black Swan” was a great book and an outstanding work by Nassim Taleb. At the time of its release and around the time I first read the book, I didn’t realize how prolific of a role his book would play later on.
@timfelsky
@timfelsky 6 жыл бұрын
Powerful
@oloffrojd3368
@oloffrojd3368 6 жыл бұрын
The master
@purukarna
@purukarna 6 жыл бұрын
Brilliant
@231wildy
@231wildy 6 жыл бұрын
His views are very insightful. If anyone has not read his book "Fooled by Randomness", it is a must read. But, I guess most would have read his book by now. Awesome and pragmatic views.
@macclark4112
@macclark4112 6 жыл бұрын
Money disappears regularly in such volatile markets. Wealth never disappears,it is simply transferred to others.
@letmesummarize1176
@letmesummarize1176 3 жыл бұрын
Can you please elaborate that. What do you mean by wealth?
@19battlehill
@19battlehill 6 жыл бұрын
To see the obvious is easy and he did that -- he got lucky that he timed them right. That is random luck, and I think he would be the first to admit this.
@w0ttheh3ll
@w0ttheh3ll 4 жыл бұрын
in his book "the black swan" he specifically recommends that people don't become traders. while that's a job where you could make millions in a single day, the chances of that happening are so very low. with a regular job, you can reliably earn a living.
@marijnstollenga1601
@marijnstollenga1601 5 жыл бұрын
I'm inspired to get some options now
@danielracovitan9779
@danielracovitan9779 3 жыл бұрын
you have to know what you're doing, he said
@nrpbrown
@nrpbrown Жыл бұрын
I'm really happy he's seen Trading Places, he doesn't seem like much of a movies guy
@ariedtrades
@ariedtrades 4 жыл бұрын
Selling seatbelt thing reminded me on Warren Buffett on selling insurance for nuclear bomb. When it happen we all die while it didn't happen he get to keep the money.
@grumfeldvanderspooijwanker1627
@grumfeldvanderspooijwanker1627 2 жыл бұрын
Wow, NNT with Bloomberg?
@vimalb88
@vimalb88 6 жыл бұрын
"Someone else pays for their losses"
@danielracovitan9779
@danielracovitan9779 3 жыл бұрын
the taxpayers or the shareholders
@royreyes8422
@royreyes8422 4 жыл бұрын
beautiful ... just wolfed Psei 5100 and ES1 snp 2525 ... march 12, 2020 fri the greater bull run is on day 1 to fresh highs.. thanks bloomberg
@paulerosier6948
@paulerosier6948 5 жыл бұрын
+ de vidéos en français, s'il vous plaît. Merci.
@prasannanidumolu7508
@prasannanidumolu7508 6 жыл бұрын
Tony Soprano is back!
@kitzchim
@kitzchim 6 жыл бұрын
Prasanna Nidumolu better taste in suits though
@DUDINCHI
@DUDINCHI 5 жыл бұрын
Horizontally challenged tony
@willdehne1
@willdehne1 6 жыл бұрын
I read his books, follow his speeches, agree with most his ideas. Implementing his ideas is not easy for me. I guess I am not as smart. All I have been able to do is diversify.
@seanyboyclutch
@seanyboyclutch 6 жыл бұрын
Wilfried Dehne buy out of the money put options...
@adriand9526
@adriand9526 6 жыл бұрын
If you have no experience with options don't buy them.
@EnsonPortela
@EnsonPortela 5 жыл бұрын
@Alexander Bayer Also, I do not know what is he approach to select how Out of the money should the option be!
@danielracovitan9779
@danielracovitan9779 3 жыл бұрын
@@seanyboyclutch it is not that simple; you have to carefully pick the put options writer, otherwise if they default you won't be able to call the options when they get into the money
@danielracovitan9779
@danielracovitan9779 3 жыл бұрын
@Alexander Bayer it is no more valid today; as of 2021 he stays away from long term sovereign bonds, from currencies and stocks; likes gold, put options, and very short term fixed-income securities
@zelareka
@zelareka 5 жыл бұрын
taleb is a very smart manbaby
@ninetyninecent
@ninetyninecent 6 жыл бұрын
continental illinois and rtc was volcker, not greesnpan
@luosongsu7456
@luosongsu7456 3 жыл бұрын
the way he talks made me think of the kid with no tooth on Strange Things
@Russel_at_whatever
@Russel_at_whatever 5 жыл бұрын
there was no EUR/USD trading at that time, because Euro didn't exist then. what are they talking about?!
@leftmodernist5210
@leftmodernist5210 5 жыл бұрын
He’s talking about the Eurodollar. Google it!
@-Bearito
@-Bearito 4 жыл бұрын
Don't mean to be rude, but big moves on the Euro/Dollar pair on Black Monday in 87? The Euro did not exist at the time ;-)
@leonardovalencia8928
@leonardovalencia8928 4 жыл бұрын
EuroDollars is an interest rate instrument and it is not related to the Euro currency at all (despite the name). I would say it is one of the most popular (if not the most popular) futures contract offered in the USA.
@-Bearito
@-Bearito 4 жыл бұрын
@@PaulRBerg Thx, I didn't know that. Indeed, one could swear it was designed to be confusing =/
@MISTERASMODEUS
@MISTERASMODEUS 6 жыл бұрын
Well at least Greenspan did one thing right...
@gordongordon98
@gordongordon98 3 жыл бұрын
Broken Clock Theory
@sourabhvora2164
@sourabhvora2164 4 жыл бұрын
Rather share the exact opposite. Did you buy? No, i sold
@lenguyenthanhhuy4149
@lenguyenthanhhuy4149 Жыл бұрын
Thử 91,000,000,000 tỷ vận may từ sự bất định của thị trường và có thời hạn có điểm dừng 600 tỷ/ thánh
@lukecashin
@lukecashin 6 жыл бұрын
Second.
@Senecamarcus
@Senecamarcus 5 жыл бұрын
Erik my man u would be better at the Zoo with how u do new interviews
@hamptaylor
@hamptaylor 2 жыл бұрын
Pretty sure that aphorism at the end is plagiarized from Friedman 😂
@roc7880
@roc7880 Жыл бұрын
manic mondays are always black mondays.
@ycnexu
@ycnexu 6 жыл бұрын
Love Taleb, and he said it himself that he talks this way on purpose, but I gotta say I can't comprehend his muttering and hiccups. He speaks a bit like a drunkard, actually :)
@gomertube
@gomertube 6 жыл бұрын
Yes, I do pity those who try following him without having read one of his books beforehand.
@aza1479
@aza1479 4 жыл бұрын
2020 march anyone
@danielracovitan9779
@danielracovitan9779 3 жыл бұрын
stop begging for attention
@sourabhvora2164
@sourabhvora2164 4 жыл бұрын
oh my god, still using his playbook to not share what he does. Short volatility.
@roayahelal4617
@roayahelal4617 6 жыл бұрын
72nd and first is not soho ~
@kitzchim
@kitzchim 6 жыл бұрын
shut the fuck up no one gives a shit
@Joe-jc5ol
@Joe-jc5ol 4 жыл бұрын
I was shocked that he was saying something nice about Alan Greenspan and then he followed up with "it's the only good thing he did in his life" He really really hates him lol
@danielracovitan9779
@danielracovitan9779 3 жыл бұрын
he doesn't hate him; he despises him; it's a different thing
@sourabhvora2164
@sourabhvora2164 4 жыл бұрын
yea yea. Swaps on Credit default Swaps. You actually know what make the most money. Hahaha. Cough cough.
@milarovas4363
@milarovas4363 4 жыл бұрын
To summarize, he got very lucky and made a lot of money betting on the stock market.
@alfredthepatientxcvi
@alfredthepatientxcvi 3 жыл бұрын
To summarize, you are either a fool or a troll.
@danielracovitan9779
@danielracovitan9779 3 жыл бұрын
@@alfredthepatientxcvi :))))
@artelc
@artelc 2 жыл бұрын
He is repulsive.
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