kevin is right YOUR FIRED

99

@@vishnujeganmogan1750 WHAT. THE. ACTUAL. FUCK. I was right on season 4 ep 8 of b99 when I hit up this vid lol

Best scene from B99 ever?

If u guyz interested in maths riddles I have one in my channel

This video is nearly ten years old, and about every fifth comment or so is about wanting the goat instead of the car. You're all so very clever and original.

TedManney First of all I know that and second of all I wrote this comment before looking at any other comments

RyoMiianPlayz No shit, Sherlock. You left the same comment a million other people did *because* just like them, you typed up the first obvious thought that popped into your head and sent it out into the universe. People like you clog up the internet with repetitive, unoriginal thoughts, and the worst part is that you can't be bothered to read what anyone else has to say and then you expect people to read your bullshit.

RyoMiianPlayz tl;dr

Ross Sadler I literally don't understand how anyone can be like you. I said I know that other people left the same comment. Just cause other people have the same thought as you doesn't mean it's an "unoriginal thought". I just literally can't rap my head around the fact that this is so important to you that I know that I'm "unoriginal"

how is this countertuitive it makes perfect sense. probability is literally everything.

and poker proves this wrong every single hand.

I'm not aware of probability being despised by many that study mathematics. And in my experience, probability and statistics were by far the easiest higher level math courses I took (I majored in Mechanical Engineering, minored in math.) I find the process of taking something that appears straightforward, and uncovering a surprising underlying principle to be a thing of beauty. And in many cases, I feel like a hero battling villains when I see data that has been presented in a misleading way and I get to identify it and call it out.

@@whitey6317Making sense and being counterintuitive are not mutually exclusive nor is making sense and being intuitive the same thing. When some thing "makes sense" means that knowing the "solution" or "the way a X works", you can reason it out. Being counterintuitive means that just via intuition you will have a hard time arriving at the answer. Intuition usually does not examine all the possibilities but reasoning, i.e. the part of your brain that can make use of logic to make sense of things does (if done properly). Intuition on the other hand makes decisions based on the amount of data that you receive at a glance (you can train it of course to start inferring the answers you'd arrive at with reasoning, but that requires building experience). The perfect example is why the regular person (which includes me) will think (or rather intuit) its a 50/50 chance. People don't consider that the chance of winning the car is bigger because you can make the choice. They assume that having one or two choices does not make an impact on the probability and even if they notice the fact that the host will always go for a door with the goat in the first reveal they only think they understand the implications. Regular person thinks like this: "Its one in three, but because the a goat will be revealed on the first reveal its really 50/50, so because I want the car therefore I want to hit it on first try and keep the door on the 2nd change thus producing less anxiety." Upon thinking of it a little more, its easy to observe that the anxiety level will not change (it might even rise if the person doubts their initial choice - which is a likely occurrence) and its easy to observe that its wishful thinking to hit the lower probability. A person who can flip their intuition may think: "Well, since the first thing to be revealed will be a goat, and definitely not the door I chose, I should be aiming to hit a goat so the host is forced to reveal the other goat, and really hitting the goat is the more likely reality, then I should just embrace the goat and then release it." This shows a surprising level of acceptance towards the possibility failure which stems from understanding and acceptance of the limitations of the way this choice works (under the assumption its not rigged) as opposed to the wishful thinking of the regular person's reaction to this. I hope the above makes sense.

Shane Goes Yep I came from this

Russell

honda

Jericho

suzuki

Mercedes

A surprisingly astute comment - many gainsayers wrongly assume the revealed door is eliminated from the probability equation when in fact, as you illustrate, it remains and has 3/3 chance of goat and 0/3 chance of car. While it may be eliminated from the set of 'doors a contestant who wishes to win would choose' or even from the set of 'doors offered to the contestant to switch to', it remains as the door whose conditional probability is 0/3 car following the reveal, the other doors now having 1/3 and 2/3.

Well, I wanted to leave a unique brain fart, just point something out that I assume nobody or hardly anyone has pointed out so far. Thanks for congratulating me on that. :-)

Senjiu Kanuba Your comment merits being taken seriously. Many people simply counter the advice to switch with 'But I want a goat', in a limited attempt to subvert the expectation that the car is desirable without respecting the core purpose of the MHP as a math problem. However the theoretical chance of trying to win the goat is an effective counter to misguided solutions such as the Ablestmage Error, where the doors are reduced to two, and Buxtonian Logic, where the remaining two doors' chances are not divisible in a different way to before the reveal.

To be honest, I found the problem too simple to take it seriously but I can see people having trouble with it. It's the same problem with "You have 3 similar looking keys, one of them opens the door, you remember which ones you tried already. Which one is most likely to be the key, the first, the second or the third one you try?", people don't try to figure out the likelyhood of each event, they just answer on gut level (or with system 1 as opposed to using system 2). That's why you learn this stuff in school. Or a more popular problem because it might be actually important to someone: "You doctor has a diagnosis tool that returns positive in 99% of the cases when someone has the illness and negative in 1% in that case. It returns positive in 10% of the cases when you do not have the illness and negative in 90% of the cases then. One in ten thousand has the illness. You are diagnosed positive. Is it more likely that you do have the illness or not?" What's your first guess? And what do you think is the actual answer? Take a moment and think about it. The solution is that in a million people 100 have the illness, of those 99 are diagnosed positive and 1 is negative. Of the 999900 people that don't have the illness 899910 are diagnosed negative and 99990 are diagnosed positive. So if you are diagnosed positive you are either one of the 99990 who don't have the illness or one of the 99 who do have it. So your chance of actually having it is 99/100089 which is about 0.1%. That means, in this setup, if you are diagnosed positive you have about 99.9% of not having the illness and 0.1% of having it. If you are diagnosed negative you have a one in 899911 chance of having the illness and about a 99.9999% chance of not having it. So it's a relatively reliable test if it returns negative but if it's positive you should probably take another test, unless you can live with a one in thousand chance of having that illness. So I agree with you in that many people just don't think enough. :)

Senjiu Kanuba Surprisingly if anyone wants to win a goat their best bet is to open the door of your house, there's a 77% chance your mum is home.

Anonymous Person you mean Rosa Diaz

BOOOOOOOOONNNNNNEEEEEEE

BOoOOOOOOOOOOnnnnnnnnnneeee?!?!?!?!?!?!?

@Batman Fan what me and my husband do on our personal time is none of your concern

True that

this is actually quite well simplified

exactly

I disagree with your simplification. The entire logic of the problem relies on the fact that they are revealing a certain door to you. With your simplification, you don't know what is behind the doors on your first pick, so you have a 2/3 chance of being wrong. Then you say that you are probably wrong so you should switch. Well, you still don't know if you are wrong, and you don't know what is behind any of the other doors, so you are effectively eliminating your own choice making it a 50/50.

3) Unless you feel like winning a goat😂

@Xx BigBoss xX no, that's just logical. Probability is theoretical, whereas in reality it is still 50/50

Rona Kavanagh Are you going to fuck that as well?

Why do you use 'as well' when the sentence I made implied I was ordering someone else to do it?

Next time you try and be a smart ass you should cover your tracks.

It couldn't have been seen as a list of things I was going to do because "I want my goat" negates that.

Rona Kavanagh 'Fuck the car' is an imperative which may be taken literally to mean as stated, implying a second-person subject, or figuratively, to mean 'dismiss the car' where the principle actor may be first person in that it is their attitudinal stance which the command expresses. The result in either case is 'the car is fucked' which allows the adverb 'as well' to hang with a touch of irony due to the former equivocacy. Further, 'want' in the same sentence as 'fuck' is laden with double entendre, heightening the innuendo. So, you and the goat: not an item then?

Thank you

but how do u know that the door you have chosen has a goat behind it . How can u assume that without opening the door

gaurav m You do not. You know which one is more likely to have a goat.

So simple and very clear... you are dude man....

This guy explains it the best

+Vladimir Dimov "You basically have 0 % chance" ... while simultaneously you basically have 100% chance because when you open the 1st door and the host asks you whether to swap ... the director is telling the crew "we need to increase ratings or the sponsors will leave the show - give away the car"

except thats scamming, and they would be prosecuted

Michael beseler "except thats scamming, and they would be prosecuted" "... except that's not mentioned in the MHP question so is not material to the solution"

Freddie Orrell except that's scamming, and they would be prosecuted

+O. Flake There is serious protection in place against cheating and collusion for every game show, as required by law. There would never be a situation where the crew is free to run around switching prizes without supervision.

Ah. It makes sense now.

OHHHHHH. THANK YOU

Actually, from my point of view, it's 100% - even better. Reason, the host has to pick the other goat to get a winner for the game which is his goal.

Yes, imagine the doors being open all the time. These are the only possible options: The only 4 examples possible if the car is in door 1: 🚗🐐🐐 Example 1. Choose door 1, host reveals goat in door 2. Stay = you win, change = you loose = 50/50 % chance. Example 2. Choose door 1, host reveals goat in door 3. Stay = you win, change = you loose = 50/50 % chance. Example 3. Choose door 2, host reveals goat in door 3. Stay = you loose, change = you win = 50/50 % chance. Example 4. Choose door 3, host reveals goat in door 2. Stay = you loose, change - you win = 50/50 % chance. In 2 of the only 4 possible examples above you win if you change, and in the other 2 examples you loose if you stay = 50/50 %. These are the only 4 examples possible if the car is in door 2: 🐐🚗🐐 Example 1. Choose door 1, host reveals goat in door 3. Stay = you loose, change = you win = 50/50 % chance. Example 2. Choose door 2, host reveals goat in door 1. Stay = you win, change = you loose = 50/50 % chance. Example 3. Choose door 2, host reveals goat in door 3. Stay = you win, change = you loose = 50/50 % chance. Example 4. Choose door 3, host reveals goat in door 1. Stay = you loose, change - you win = 50/50 % chance. In 2 of the only 4 possible examples above you win if you change, and in the other 2 examples you loose if you stay = 50/50 %. And final example if the car is in door 3: 🐐🐐🚗 Example 1. Choose door 1, host reveals goat in door 2. Stay = you loose, change = you win = 50/50 % chance. Example 2. Choose door 2, host reveals goat in door 1. Stay = you loose, change = you win = 50/50 % chance. Example 3. Choose door 3, host reveals goat in door 1. Stay = you win, change = you loose = 50/50 % chance. Example 4. Choose door 3, host reveals goat in door 2. Stay = you win, change - you loose = 50/50 % chance. In the final possible scenario it’s all the same. 50/50 % chance to win or loose.

​@@christerenstrom9798You're saying the probability of winning the lottery is 50% because you either win or lose, which is false. Do not confuse probability and possibility. You need to actually chose an option (stay or change) and calculate the chances. You'll see that changing doors is more likely to give you a win (google "monty hall table" and you see how you should make this table), but I'll post here a different way of thinking: Imagine 3 doors, behind 2 have goats and behind 1 have a car, let's say the car is behind the first door (🚗🐐🐐). We both agree that the car has a chance of 1/3 of being in the first door, 1/3 of being in the second and 1/3 of being in the third. Let's suppose you choose the last door, so the host NEEDS to reveal a door that HAVE A GOAT and it's not yours (because he knows which one has the car), so he reveals door number 2. Remember, that this information (that a goat was behind door number 2) you didn't have in the beggining, it's a NEW INFORMATION. Now we separate the doors into two groups, the group composed by the chosen door and the group composed by the other two doors, like this: 🚗🐐 and 🐐. What were the chances the car was in each group? The car had 2/3 the chances of being in the first group (door number 1 plus number 2) and 1/3 of being in the second group. Since now you know that the second door have a goat (that is 0% of having a car behind it), the other door needs to have all the probability of having a car. This is why changing doors always increase you chances. A=1/3 B=1/3 C=1/3; A+B+C=1; A+B=2/3, after reveals, B=0 so A+0=2/3>A=2/3; Now (A+B)+C=1>(A+0)+C=1>A+C=1>2/3+1/3=1

MyNameIsSimple72 You're wrong. This problem has been around for decades. Step one is realizing you have it wrong (it is a common thing - you're not alone; it is DESIGNED to make people think it is 50/50). Think of it like this. What if you NEVER switch? According to you, I have a 50/50 chance, so I should have just as good of a chance of winning the car by NOT switching, right? For me to actually win half the time, I would have to originally pick the car OUT OF THREE DOORS half the time. Does this make any logical sense to you? It shouldn't. Just play the game out in your head. Realize that no matter what you pick, if you choose to switch, you will ALWAYS end up with the opposite of what you originally picked. Go ahead and work out as many different scenarios in your head - - I challenge you to find a scenario where what I say is not true. You pick a goat, Monty will ALWAYS open the only other goat, and you will switch to a car. You pick the car, Monty will reveal one of the goats, and you will switch to the other goat. You pick a car and switch, you end up with a goat - - every time. You pick a goat and switch, you end up with the car - - every time. You will pick a goat first 2/3 of the time, so switching will result in you ending up with a car......2/3 of the time. The fact that the host reveals a goat door is IRRELEVANT because he will ALWAYS do it. He is REQUIRED to. It has absolutely ZERO impact on the odds. From the very beginning, you have a 1/3 chance that the car is in the door you originally picked, and a 2/3 chance that it is in one of the doors you did NOT originally pick. The only thing the host does when he reveals a goat is reduce the number of doors you did not pick from 2 to 1. There is STILL a 1/3 chance that the car is in the door you originally picked, and a 2/3 chance that it is in the only other door left that you did NOT originally pick. The problem's trick is convincing people that the action of revealing a goat changes the odds. It doesn't.

MyNameIsSimple72 you can also test this in real life. bigger sample size the better. take ~20 rows of 3 cups with the same ratio of hidden items and run through each row following the rules with a friend being the host. youll be correect roughly around 66% if you swap each time

MyNameIsSimple72 If your first pick is Goat A, it's Goat A. If your first pick is Goat B, it's Goat B. If your first pick is the car, it's the car. Your first pick gonna be the car 1 in 3 games (33%), not stupid 50%.

Willoughby Krenzteinburg I discussed this with a friend as well, and isn't it so that the only reason it's not 50/50 is because of the host of the so called show? Just think about it

robin291292 What makes it work the way it does is the fact that the host is REQUIRED to reveal a goat door after your initial choice. This is what makes your odds increase from 1/3 to 2/3 if you choose to switch. The reason being, the hosts actions do not affect the probabilities when his actions are following this rule. No matter which door you choose, there will ALWAYS be a goat door available to open, and the host will ALWAYS open it. You know this going in, so the fact that the host does it is irrelevant. He is giving you no new information. From the beginning, there is a 1/3 chance you originally picked the car. There is a 2/3 chance the car is in a door you did NOT originally pick. All the host does by revealing a door is reduce the number of doors you did not originally pick. There is STILL a 1/3 chance you have a car in your door and a 2/3 chance the car is NOT in your door. Now, there is only 1 other door that is NOT your door - representing that 2/3 chance. In a variation of the game where the host does NOT know where all the prizes are and truly reveals doors at random (which means the host COULD potentially accidentally reveal the car door in some cases) - in the cases where the host reveals a goat, your odds of having the car are 50/50. This variation would be statistically similar to the game show, Deal or No Deal in that the contestant is randomly opening cases, and in the event that the contestant has revealed all but two cases (their original pick and one other case), then at that point, there is a 50/50 chance that each case contains one of the two remaining possible prizes. So yes - to answer your question. The fact that the host's actions are predetermined to an extent (the host can't reveal the goat door you originally picked, but would be forced to reveal the only other goat door) is what makes the statistics of the Monty Hall Problem work the way they do. Mathematically, it would look something like this : If you want to figure out the odds of BOTH event A and event B of occurring, you just multiply them. In the regular Monty Hall Problem : So, the odds that you pick a car (1/3) AND Monty reveals a goat (1/1 - because he is required to and has no choice) are : 1/3 * 1/1 = 1/3. The odds that you pick a goat (2/3) AND Monty reveals a goat (1/1 again - because he HAS to) are : 2/3 * 1/1 = 2/3. So these are the odds AFTER Monty has revealed the door. 1/3 that you have a car, and 2/3 that you don't. In the variation where Monty acts randomly : The odds that you pick a goat (2/3) AND Monty reveals a goat (1/2 - only two doors remaining - only one of which is a goat) are : 2/3 * 1/2 = 2/6 = 1/3 The odds that you pick a car (1/3) AND Monty reveals a goat (1/1 - there are only goat doors remaining for Monty, so he is guaranteed to reveal a goat) are : 1/3 * 1/1 = 1/3 The other 1/3 of the time, you will choose a goat, and Monty will reveal the car - and this game is unplayable. So we ignore these events. That leaves us with the remaining 2/3 of the games. 1/3 of the time you have the car, and 1/3 of the time you have the goat. So, in the cases where Monty has acted randomly and has revealed a goat, there is a 50/50 chance you have the car. Now, it is STILL in your interest to switch because you have no way of knowing which version of the game Monty is playing. At best, you double your chances - at worst, you take a lateral move that does not decrease your chances, so you might as well always switch.

Jajajaja...hahahaha... :D :D :D L.O.L

Lol....nyc 1..!

Also, logically, if you always pick Door A, then Monty reveals Door B or C, and you stick. Do you win 50% of the time then? So that means the car was behind Door A 50% of the games. But what if you always pick Door B or Door C? Are those both 50% likely too? Obviously there would be a contradiction there: the car can't possibly always be behind your first pick with a 50% chance.

@@jasonl7651 the first time you pick, you have a 33% (1/3) chance of getting the car. When the host opens the other door, if you switch to the remaining door, your chances are 66% (2/3) of getting the car.

@@sheila6530 I'm not sure why that's a reply to me. You just stated the basics. My point was that the people who hold that it's 50/50 would lead to a contradiction, since the three doors must then add up to 150%

It's interesting to note that since the host knows where everything is, it cannot be a random opening of the door, and that alone excludes any possibility of there being 50:50 odds. A non-random process cannot have equal odds.

I am confused because probability can change, no? Yes originally it was 33% but now you only have 2 doors to choose from so that probability raises to 50%. It's not conditional because now you only have two doors to choose from. you're not going to choose the open door. Draw a tree diagram, it makes sense to me.

Samuel Kueber I already understood from the video at this point, but I also think this is a very effective way of explaining it. Nice one

Maz Amd no drive it on your driveway

Ooooooh

And if I can save 15% if I switch to GEICO.

I’d just sell the car

Does the goat come with insurance

so it relies on shenanigans by the host to work? OK, say the host dies at the start of the game, then i pick a goat door. i have 2 doors left, how is it not 50%

The_Urgulerg Yes, if the door you picked was random, then it would be 50%, but the host doesn't pick a random door, he ALWAYS chooses a goat.

i hate the host

The_Urgulerg Game show hosts can put on a good smile while tricking you. Are my explanation makes senses, though?

yes

The number of people falling for this hoax theory is astounding… The fallacy here is believe that probably of the second attempt to open door is influenced by the probability of the first attempt, when in fact it’s not. As soon as you opened the 3rd door, the probability of the first door being the car increased to 50%, and not staying at 33%. Take a scenario with 2 doors for example. If I choose first door, host opens second door and reveals the goat, the probability of the first door being the car is now at 100% and not staying at 50%. If somehow the first attempt to open door influences probability in the second attempt, then this would be true.

@@robertdowney9017 surprisingly its not a hoax. there is a video on YT with the title " marilyn vox savant". i suggest you watch it. she even had mathematics professors apologizing to here after they eventually figured it out.

@@robertdowney9017I think mythbusters did this and proved the theory. It’s on youtube

@@robertdowney9017 Absolutely corect!I called a big corruption for the Marilyn Mach Vos Savant and poor logic for the most of the people.

The problem with this whole debacle is that they are treating the first pick goats as actually two different goats which is correct but treating the second scenario with choosing the car first and switching to goat because ignoring which goat the host reveals and treating them as the exact same goat because in a 3 letter scenario there are 6 possibilities with no letters repeating and you have to take out 2 possibilities because host cannot reveal car so thus giving us 4 possibilities

I always was confused about why they switched even though it was explained to me. Now I understand. You are basically guaranteed to pick a goat, and the host reveals everything else you didn't pick except for one door. The host obviously isn't going to reveal the car, so you should switch to the one he didn't reveal.

@@TheSpacePlaceYT The car still might be behind your door (which he also didn't reveal) It's always two probabilities and the first one doesn't matter. It's the Monte Carlo fallacy in disguise.

Holyshit, i got it😂

@@johnrobertson93 yeah no. This is like saying the lottery is 50/50 because you win or lose. At first you have 1/,1000,000 chance of picking a car. Or 999,999/1,000,000 of picking a goat. So when he opens all other doors(which doesn’t change what your choice was) it’s more likely you picked the goat and swapping will leave you with a goat one time every million. It’s not a debate lol it’s literally solved

Um if you had a million options and you cut it down to two choices that's still 50 50...

+David G Yes, it would. As you might expect, swapping will win 99.9% of the time while staying only wins the other 0.1% of the time. Examples using more doors are often used to help people who don't "get it" because it becomes more clear that swapping is simply betting on our first choice being wrong when we start with a near-impossible chance of selecting the car off the bat. Counterintuitively, the more doors we start with the easier it is to win the game!

+David G Nice explanation!

+Somayajula Padmavathi How is this a nice explanation? Changing 3 doors to a thousand doesn't make any difference in explaining.

Drieks It shouldn't, but it does (to some people). It's a lot more obvious when you're only 0.1% likely to pick the grand prize from the start that swapping is almost certainly the only way to win. When the chances are 1/3 against 2/3, lots of people give themselves permission to regard the chances as "close enough" to 50/50 as to not make a difference. Using a thousand doors is a way to force certain people not to ignore the diminished probability of selecting the grand prize off the bat.

+TedManney Thanks, Ted. I couldn't have offered a better way to convey what I was actually trying to say. And thanks Drieks, I see your point ~ the 1000 door explanation does not in any way help a person who is attempting to solve this problem mathematically.

Best explanation yet

Then again I already own a car, but don't already own a goat... which adds a suplementary layer of complexity to the problem as to deciding which one I actually want.

Tyler Holte Oh my GOD. Heavens thank you. Spending half an hour in the comment section brought me to a point where I thought mankind was so dumb that the only reasonable solution was to anihilate all life through a nuclear haulocost. But you made me realise some people get it.

Shane Warren If you can swap to get the other two doors you didn't chose, you get 2/3 to get the car and at least 1 goat. The host just take that goat away from you.

this type of problms is solved by "expectation". in not swapping case it is 1/3*1 + 2/3*0= 1/3 while in swapping case it is 1/3*0 +2/3*1 =2/3

GregTom2 I actually find a goat has many advantages over a car

NovaTime And, really, that's all there is to it.

James Nelson its what people forget to say to people who dont get it

NovaTime yes this is true but wouldn't you feel like a complete idiot if you picked the car first and swapped choices.. 33% is a little too high to be swapping imho.

33% < 66%. It's foolish not to swap.

James Nelson ok let's (for the sake of argument) say that i agree with you.. Would it be wise to swap twice if you have 4 doors then?

@Life Prof. B If I am lucky I get a goat..which means I am unlucky.. AND If I am unlucky I get a car..which means I am lucky So you mean I am lucky if I am unlucky and I am unlucky if I am lucky.. Enlighten me xD

@@abhishekacharya588 Yeah dude

In my opinion you win either way

Looney Rose Maybe they think they are not worthy of owning a goat. 😊

Dude, do you know how many goats you can buy, if you sell the car?😂

lol. goats are better that cars.

'Americans'

Vegetarians smh :-/

5 minutes and 48 seconds to explain this visually

no, it wont necessarily be the car, but it's most likely

Ismael Mejia No what he's saying is if you do happen to choose a goat and swap you will have a car guaranteed. And you will most likely choose a goat the first time.

AJ18555 You hit the nail on the head - This is the key to understanding this.

getbo i understand...most 50/50men understand, then rethink and go back to well theres 2 doors and one of each thing, and i have a choice to make in the moment, in the moment i say, it must be 50/50!

Agreed.

I want the goat so I should not swap.

+Shanka DaWanka lol mk, if u get a car, will u ask for a goat???

Yes.

Sell the car and buy lots of goats from the money!

+Pallando Rómestámo I only have enough room for two or three goats.

If anyone can't see it after that explanation, it's because God doesn't want them to have nice things.

it make more sense that way.

NOW I get it. I was doing mental gymnastics to try and figure it out but somehow this worked better than the video did

But if you go to the internet, you'll find people that try to be correct all the time, so they end up losing most of the time as they thought they were correct initially. Can Monty Hall problem even applied onto internet arguments?

​@@Pennycilin3yes for 2/3 ha ha

Hhahahaha you're right

goats are dead

But if there are two deadf Goats I can easily pick the car too because then the goats smell terrible

+w senkow every time because I'm just sad like that haha

You want the car so you can sell it to buy more than 1 goat.

+FuriousGaming Your fun at a party aren't you?

+w senkow ☺️☺️😂😂😁😁😁😁

+FuriousGaming haha love that, that's a good shout ;)

You've worked at the fairground, I take it?

hmm sound reasonable 😂

Who said anything about money? There are goats and a car. Also, your explanation is NOT the easiest.

But your choice between switching or not is NOT between THREE doors, your choice is only between TWO doors. The one you originally picked, and the one that remains after Monty opened the third one that has a goat, and removed that door and goat from your choices. He moved that door and goat off the stage because it is no longer a choice you can make. Now you can only choose between two doors. Your chance of winning a car from one of those two doors is 50/50.

@@OhJodi69 Holy shit, if this explanation doesn't convince you, you're beyond help my friend.

@@lxilind7567 I did figure it out, actually, lol I made a comment further down in these comments, and I think I just was not understanding that at the start of the game, with three doors, I was going to pick the wrong door 2/3 of the time. here it is: Ok, I figured it out. I think. 1$, 2G, 3G. I pick one (*), and a goat door is removed. *1$, 2G, __. Two choices. Stay/win, switch/lose. 1$, *2G, __. Stay/lose, switch/win 1$, __ , *3G. Stay/lose, switch/win One stay wins. Two switches win.

Now I understand it! Thank you

@Steve It's just the contrary. The contestant chooses a goat door in 2 out of 3 times on average. On the other hand, the host knows the positions and cannot reveal the contestant’s selection and neither the door that hides the car, which means that everytime the contestant has chosen a goat door (2 out of 3 games), the other door the host leaves closed is which has the car. So, we will always end with two doors, but the switching one will have the prize in 2 out of 3 times, not in 1 out of 2.

Steve, you can't have a 1/2 chance of having the car behind any of the three doors you pick unless you change the total probability from 1 to 1.5 in your explanation. That makes it wrong no matter how you word it.

The total probability in the original question is 1 because there is one car among three doors. The total probability in your explanation must also equal 1...but it doesn't. In order to have all three doors with a 1/2 chance of having the prize if selected would require a total probability of 3x(1/2)=1.5 which is 1/3 more than there are cars.Two of the three doors can have a 50/50 chance if, and only if, the other door that was opened had a 1/3 chance of having the prize but didn't. Therefore your explanation must be wrong.

@Steve "except your chances change to 1/2 when they open a door containing nothing. there are only two possible solutions left. your selection now has a 50% chance to contain the prize." That logic must then apply to this as well....except your chances change from 1/3 to 1/4 when they add a door containing nothing. There are four possible solutions left. Your selection now has a 25% chance to contain the prize. Lol!!!!!!

+The Absolute Zero the host NEVER opens the door with the car but he opens one AFTER you first choose one. you dont know whats behind yours but you deffinitly know the one the host opens after that is not the car. thats why it could never be 50-50 chance. This video explains it perfectly. why you call people dumb if you dont understand such a simple explanation like the maker of the video did?

+The Absolute Zero "the whole time you're really just playing with 2 doors" The three doors you are playing with the whole time are: (a) the door first chosen by the contestant, (b) the door revealed by the host (which cannot be (a) or any containing the car), and (c) the unaddressed door (which cannot be (a) or (b)).

+The Absolute Zero If you pick a goat with your first pick and switch you will win. So I ask you. What are the odds of picking a goat first?

+Freddie Orrell The thing is that you don't have three doors all the time. You start off with three closed doors and pick one. The host then opens a door, removing a variable. So you start off with three doors and end with 2 doors. P.S. probability of winning when you keep the door is 1/3 while swapping gives you a probability of 1/2.

+Spruce Wayne What would you win if you were allowed to switch to the open door?

@BuggyAl statistics only work if you get to repeat the choice many times, it wont work if you only get to choose once

​@@wspang1993 If the game was done with 100 doors and 99 goats, and the host closes 98 doors, you'd have a 99% or 98% of winning by switching regardless.

*knock* *beep beep* No goat sound, must pick another door.

+J Fleming The tricky part is in understanding that the elimination of a goat must be deliberate and non-random, not by accident. If the host (or the player, or anyone really) blindly picked one of the unselected doors and opened it, revealing a goat instead of a car *by chance* instead of knowing ahead of time that they're revealing a goat, surprisingly the advantage of swapping disappears. This is why you get people thinking that it's beneficial to swap cases at the end of a game of Deal or No Deal even though it's actually 50/50 either way.

+TedManney You're overthinking it too lmao

J Fleming No, I have insight into it that you lack. If someone insisted that a player should swap at the end of Deal or No Deal for an overwhelmingly likely chance to win the grand prize, you would be unable to explain the difference between the two games to them, and therefore you lack a thorough understanding of why the game works the way it does, which is the entire point of a math-based probability puzzle. If Monty tripped and fell and accidentally pushed a door open to reveal a goat, there would be *no advantage* to swapping. If you don't understand exactly why that is, you haven't thought about it enough and are in no position to claim it's so simple.

I WANT THE GOAT

+TedManney And you're just assuming I don't already understand the problem. Also, still overthinking.

But maybe you picked the car one, theoretically you are correct but in real it’s still 50/50

@@aaroei7 no you have a 99% chance of winning in this case if you always swap lol

Nicholas Davis no, you are wrong

@@aaroei7 replicate this experiment on real life or more realistically through a program. I can guarantee you you're wrong. It's a hard concept to understand.

Nicholas Davis I agree that if it’s with 100 doors, you should swap because he basically shows you the right door but if it’s with 3 doors it’s a 50/50

The number of people falling for this hoax theory is astounding… The fallacy here is believe that probably of the second attempt to open door is influenced by the probability of the first attempt, when in fact it’s not. As soon as you opened the 3rd door, the probability of the first door being the car increased to 50%, and not staying at 33%. Take a scenario with 2 doors for example. If I choose first door, host opens second door and reveals the goat, the probability of the first door being the car is now at 100% and not staying at 50%. If somehow the first attempt to open door influences probability in the second attempt, then this would be true.

@@robertdowney9017 But the first choice obviously influences the second choice? The game does not reset - the positions of the prizes does not change, and what you chose the first time is guaranteed to be one of two options on the second choice. For the two choices to be independent, the prize positions would need to randomize after the first choice but before the second.

+ᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚ They smell for a start

They eat everything, I mean everything.

lol

+ for one you do not get to keep the goat... the rules are that you do not keep those prizes.

+ᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚᅚwouldn't you want a car over a goat

+Wilford Brimley Like 10% or more of the comments on this (nine-year-old) video are "I'd rather have a goat" or "what if I'd rather win a goat?"

+Wilford Brimley seems u r very rich

Ajay Prabhu Indeed, I have a goat farm.

+Wilford Brimley great ....which place are you from

Ajay Prabhu Not Wales...

Vaibhav More thats what I was thinking

First of, you listed permutations, not combinations, just pointing that out there. Second, you post out in one set of permutations (11, 12, 13) implying that there will always be three doors remaining at the second choice, which is not true since only two doors are left. It would be like this: 11, 12, OR 11 13 since the host does not remove their door choice. For the first set of permutations, the car remains in either door 1 or door 2. So if it was in door 1, and you stay you win. If it was in door 2, and you stay you lose. Staying has a 50% chance of winning. Consequentially, changing has a 50% chance of winning. For the second set of permutations, the car remains in either door 1 or door 3. So if it was in door 1, and you stay you win. If it was in door 3, and you stay you lose. Staying has a 50% of winning. Consequentially, changing has a 50% chance of winning.

+TheGreatslyfer You said: "For the first set of permutations, the car remains in either door 1 or door 2. So if it was in door 1, and you stay you win. If it was in door 2, and you stay you lose. Staying has a 50% chance of winning. Consequentially, changing has a 50% chance of winning." You concluded that staying had 50% because you were only focusing in the number of options, forgetting you have more information about one door than about the other, and this occurs because one door was selected randomly but the other on purpose with knowledge. (Remember the host knows the positions and must reveal a goat after your selection from the other non-selected two.) Let's see: 1) The number 1 is still an option because it was your selection and the host couldn't reveal it regardless of its content. 2) The number 2 could have been removed if it had a goat. It was not a guarantee for it to be in the second round. For example, if number 3 had the car and number two had a goat, the host would have been forced to reveal the 2. But he didn't, number 2 survived a possible elimination, which increases the likelyhood of it having the car. The other door the host leaves closed will be the correct in all cases you failed at first, so it wins 2/3 of the time.

That's the result but not the reason. The probability of choosing a goat is 2/3 if the host doesn't know where the car is as well. And if he reveals a goat from another door the chance of getting the car by switching is not 2/3.

67% you dumb oaf!

66.66666666666666666666 ya bishhhhh

This doesn't make any sense. At all. It doesnt matter what door you pick at all. Since as soon as tou pick the door 1 of the 3 doors is revealed to have a foat in it which makes It a 50/50 chance instantly. The 33%, 66% thing is utter bullshit since It is just the percentage of the past which becomes absolutely irrelevant after your pick. If you have an option to swap after your pick doesnt matter what you pick chances of winning are always 50/50

Yoggeyash Wrong. Idiot. There's is a 2/3 chance to initially pick a goat. If you switch, your odds flip to being 2/3 for the car.

+Yoggeyash It doesn't make sense to you because you are not smart enough.

That is brilliant! I even have a book devoted to MHP and I have not seen such a simple exposition. Masterful!

Thanks, Andremus.

Brilliant !

Thanks, WT.

may your coffin be made of gold, kind person!

It's probability.

I'd heard of this before watching the episode and I was just screaming at holt the whole time

37rainman No, I have. By third I meant the third coin you look at, the one left over after the original choice and the goat you "reveal"

37rainman I am aware of that. I just couldn't be bothered and i understood the logic behind it so what was the point? Peeps reading this can do it a hundred or a thousand times if they so choose, the result will be the same

37rainman this one only takes ten minutes. So they should do it and be proved wrong, no excuses that way :P

Or go here: www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm Faster, and you get 1000 experiments.

martok2008 that site is flawed as fuck, if you choose the one on the left you lose, and if you pick the other two you win. I'd rather do my own probability and know it's accurate...

+Eve Just a Player You *do* know that you're twice as likely to pick a goat than the car though

+HumptyDumptyOakland: True, but that changes once the 'goat' door is revealed, because you KNOW that one of the dreaded goats WAS NOT behind the door you picked. In plain language, there are no longer 2 goats available for the booby prize, but one. Your odds improved immediately, from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2.

Georooney Your odds improve to 2 in 3 if you SWITCH.

+Georooney the odds of having chosen the car on the initial pick remain 1/3 even after a goat door is revealed but the odds of winning car if you switch has increased to 2/3 ... it's basic probabilities

Nicolas Vallée Only because Monty knows he will open a door with a goat behind it. If he opened a door at random, the chances would still be 1 in 3.

Just to clarify a bit: Ad.2 If the host opens a door at random, his chances are 50/50, so half of the time he will screw the game (since he will reveal the car instead of goat), and half of the time he will reveal the goat and give option to a player to win a car by switching to an unopened door. That doesn't change the fact that first player, by choosing one of the doors gets 1/3 probability, while remaining 2 doors have 2/3 probability, hence, in all cases where host opens the door with a goat, player will have 2/3 possibility to win a car by switching. Ad.3 If a third person (second player) doesn't know the choice of first player, his chances of winning are 50/50 since there are only two doors, one less likely to have car behind it (the doors that the first player initially choose), and the one more likely to have car behind it (the one of two unopened doors in first round of first player), and he doesn't know which door has better probability.

@@max5250 If MH opens a door at random the chance of his revealing a goat is 2/3, of revealing the car 1/3. You are assuming that the contestant has picked the car,

@@rwb966 Correct, my bad. The host would open the door with a car in 33% of cases, and screw the game, while he will open the door with a goat 66% of time, and still give opportunity to the player to win by switching.

@@max5250 That's right (there's no bad).

@@rwb966 May bad was I said that the host would open door with car 50% of the time, i my first reply, which is obviously wrong, he would open that door only 1/3 of time.

+Fak Jea Assuming that 00000 is a possible option, the probability of guessing correctly would be 1 in 100000, not 1 in 99999.

+TedManney Yeah, you're right but it doesn't really make a difference.

+Fak Jea Now there's an explanation I could follow. Thanks.

i like how you explained it! :]

Thank you ~

mienbao I would interpret the unluckiness as actually luckiness because it's a definite win, but I understand what you're saying. It's just funny to interpret the words in a different sense. :)

It's only a math problem based upon that game show and was never played out like that in any of it's episodes. I think one of the reasons may have been that when there are three doors then there probably are two good prizes anyways with one being even more better. I'm just saying that from memory.....

Your logic make no sense, it make no difference to swich/stay, your odds are still the same, you make it look like there is one extra chance to win if you swich but actually you also took away the chance to win, there forth you did nothing that could change the 33% chances to win. This video is just a joke ^_^

Yes, that was how I came to understand this initially.

percentage is an illusion.When we remove one door, my choice becomes 50/50 from %33 when one door is removed.It doesn't stay %33 because now there are only two doors left.At the beginning i had %67 percent chance to choose a goat, now it is %50. because there are only two doors left.Get it? You're saying that you could win more if you swap by 2/3, but that's not true because we have 50/50 at the end.Watch the psychology of the guy it will take you to the car.if we had 9 goats and 1 car and when the host revealed one goat then swapping would be a better idea, but not in this situation.I get your thing, instead of staying with the %66 percent change of the choosing the goat because of the decision we made before we have to swap to increase the possibility, but no.When one door is removed, it is 50/50 from now on.I get it but it is hard to explain.If there were more goats swapping would be the best choice but not on 50/50 because it is 50/50 not %33.You forgot to remove one door when host removed a goat.

When there were 3 doors, swapping wins.But now there are only 2 doors left.I tell it again, if it was more than 2 doors at the end swapping would be the best idea but when there are only 2 doors at the end it becomes 50/50, it doesn't stay %33 when there are only two doors left.The possibility of choosing the one door of that %66 percent is high, i get it.Staying with that high possibility is wrong.But after one door is revealed, it is 50/50.

This is why I came here. Utterly stupid people who can't understand simple concepts even when they'e explained fully. Good Job Thunder Kat, now get outside. That extremely short bus will be here soon to pick you up.

An imaginary one created for the purpose of illustrating an interesting phenomenon in conditional probability.

julianpalca lets make a deal did this

The name is based off of Monty Hall, the host for Let’s Make a Deal, so probably that, haha

what kind of person are you.lol

+chris gman I'll trust mathematics for a 66% chance.

+chris gman By saying you trust your intuition, you are claiming that you can somehow "cheat" the 33% probability, which undermines the whole point of probability theory. Your intuition is *by definition* less likely to produce a win for you than the mathematics.

If you believe in spiritual knowledge and know that your intuition will almost always be correct, than it's really better not to switch. But then it's even easier to intentionally pick a goat, let the second goat be revealed, and then switch to the car.

Pallando Rómestámo Lol, wow. Why bother with probability theory at all? I wonder why these spiritually enlightened people aren't cleaning house at every casino and lottery drawing across the globe. It's almost as if "spirital knowledge" is shown to be utter bullshit when subjected to any sort of scrutiny.

Just saying. I do not believe in it, but science can't completely disprove it either. I have no idea why horoscopes work, but they work.

@Tyler Porciello you didn't read, did you?

at least the host has kill 998/999 its chance by itself

it can be 1/2

@@iamshishir.24 no

After reading your explanation, probability of the last two doors still looks 50/50 to me. One door is a goat, one door is a car.

Must be some weak as shit

yea like that makes more sense then anyone else on here

It's 50/50 still. Have tested it many times. It fluctuates on how many times you do it which is the issue and if you do the game 20 times vs 1-5 times you can see why. The amount of times is people messing with the problem if they choose to do it 100 times and even then it's still not more likely to be the other door. There is no rule or fact you need to do the test many times. Life and the universe doesn't work like that. You aren't promised 1 chance or 100. The only way it could be more than random or a higher chance for the other card is humans wanting to run the game so many times but that takes away from the actual probability. It's technically just random and no percent is accurate but the correct answers are you get it on the first try or it's around 50/50. But again it's random and no exact % is correct. Go take the tests yourself and you will see it's different Everytime and even the amount of times. Whoever said it's 66% didn't actually pay attention or is manipulating the game to their view which is incorrect just like the belief a god exists. Do the test yourself different days and different amounts and you will see, Seya little humans

counter-intuitive ....it's not what you think ,,,everybody thinks better to switch

@Joseph Is my middle name How much money somebody can win if He can resolve The monty hall problem? , Is there a prize for Monty Hall solution?

This is exactly the only part missing from all explanations. You touched on the exact part where it gets tricky or counter intuitive

To be precise, you can get 2 doors (assume that the game start with 3 doors) but he will take a goat away from you.

Yup.

Agreed.

👍🏻

yeah.. !

+Mvem It's not 50/50, it's 33/66! ;-)

Thatza same thing

I agree with your 1st statement, but I think you really only have 1 chance to get it right... as there is only one correct path to the right answer (IOW's only one car), the question is 'which has a better chance'. But I do like how you explained the solution, very concise.

after one of that 3 doors is opened.... your chances of winning is 50-50(a goat and a car). if there is no opened door, you chances is 33.333% to each door from that video, to me there is no differences ... all is about luck

The host has to know where the car is as well...otherwise it's 50/50.

I got a job, saved up and still ended up with a goat. Thanks Obama!

No it's not - as the video clearly explains

HumptyDumptyOakland it doesn't in moment 0, but the video doesn't actualize the value

akli maron What is "moment 0" and "actualize the value" supposed to mean?

HumptyDumptyOakland im sorry, that's as specific as it gets

Ben E How was it demonstrated, because the answer isn't 50%?

OMG OMG OMG OMG😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂