I don't know if anyone will see this comment I just want to say that Peter is 100% correct I tried both strategys and high profitability wins long term,I hope you guys pay extra attention,I'm extremely humbled with this strategy as I finally make some money in the market,thank you Peter.

A rarely articulated truth - and well explained, In the 1990's I was on the committee of the ill-fated National Association for the Protection of Punters, and we took a number of bookmakers to court following their refusal to pay out on winning bets that doubled the hole-in-one at two consecutive golf tournaments. Two guys - John and Paul I recall - had researched the real odds and were - correctly - confident of an eventual massive odds payout. The winning doubles they landed were laid at odds between 33x33 and 33 x 50. etc. Long story, but a good illustration of profitability trumping the perceived probability. In the aftermath, all bookies altered their golf odds and now such bets are either refused or priced too low.

This is the best video you have ever made Peter! Why? because everyone can relate to it and most for the wrong reason, but will make us all think twice about what we do!!

Peter one of the best videos I have seen on Xchange trading. Very insightful. Completely agree that the large payoffs systems do pay off e.g. Brexit, UK and US elections etc - going against the herd and all the favourite backers

Outstanding video Peter. Hopefully food for thought for the "system hoppers" out there.

Hi Peter. I too reckon this is one of the best you've done for a while! I'm ashamed to admit that I was (still am to a tiny, tiny amount) one of the people who went for the in-play, gratifying Lays - and got his fingers badly burnt! Like a few of the posters on here, I reckon the thing(s) that cause(s) me the most grief is the finding of a 'strategy' in the first place. So many things to choose from - so little time and all that! :-) Still, if I can take on board what you're saying in this one, then hopefully things will improve over the next few months. Once again, many thanks for laying it out for us 'thickies' :-)

Just like matched betting's casino offers. Use big stakes and expect to bust out a lot, however when the win does come in, it's huge. The EV goes up considerably. Great video

Yet another good video certainly made me think

I couldn't agree more - really enjoyed the idea of sharing the philosophy behind your thinking in this video - thanks.

6:08 😁 Best vid in a while imo ;)

Very interesting article Peter, Mind set is everything and most people need to see results from the start as you explained its the rationalisation of the losses that keeps people moving forward with the steady decline in their accounts. The number of times a tennis player loses when 20-1 on is more frequent than 20 to 1 but we all seem to believe that they just cant loose... be a contrarian !!!

Great video Peter 👍

It Cost me one year and 1k to learn what you just said. Thanks, hope to hear from you and strategies suggested.

Thanks for the video Peter. I was doing some research on google trends and found that the interest over time for betfair exchange on google has doubled over the past few years while interest/searches for traditional bookmakers has remained constant or gone down. Thought you might find this interesting

Cant say I've learned anything other than think twice - two types of strategy Strategy1 - loses frequently small losses + wins infrequently big profit = if profit > loss then you are WINNING else LOSING Strategy2 - loses infrequently large loss + wins frequently small profits = if profit > loss then you are WINNING else LOSING Completly ignores the potential that someone has the holy grail Strategy3 - loses infrequently small losses + wins frequently big profits = net profitable

I couldn't agree more, in my punting days I eventually settled on backing horses which I considered overlays, they had only a 10% strike rate but since I backed nothing less than 14/1 all was well. I do think that inexperienced traders are also drawn in to looking for strategies with a high strike rate partly because of youtube et. al. since posters (I'm as bad as the rest) tend to show only successful trades

Great stuff dude, thanks for sharing your knowledge, not many do, apart from the snake oil salesmen and that tends to be knowledge we are best off ignoring :)

Very well said Peter.

the old lay the draw system in football has proved volatile for me. although i've been profitable i've chased losses unsuccessfully. to limit the losses i've started backing draw scores as well for insurance (up to 3-3) and to avoid chasing bigger losses. i read somewhere someone said why would you insure it if you believe you are going to win? that maybe a rather arrogant view but not necessarily wrong if you have an exceptionally high strike rate (i don't). of course now i think thats not the way to go and to play it more cautiously. of course backing score draws as insurance may eat into your profits for lay the draw strategy but sometime could actually increase your profits if the draw price lengthens and you've laid your initial lay bet off and following this the match ends a draw. of course stake sizes come into play. i'd put less on 3-3 than a lower correct draw result obviously as generally speaking much less likely to happen

Peter it would be very helpful if you demonstrate this with an example on bet angel

So are you saying scalping is not the way to go? and Swing trading is the way forward? Or is there something in the middle?

Great advice thanks, I am particularly interested in that strategy that works 99% of the time and the sort of refinement needed, would you be so kind as to elaborate? or point me in the right direction. Many thanks.

Hi Peter, You mentioned you use this type of strategy on NH races. Does it not work, or work as well, on Flat races? If not why do you think this is?

Great video. I have a question that's been bugging me for quite some time.And it seems like this is the right place to ask it??? Which is the best value - Cashing Out for a profit, or letting the bet run??? After you've traded on it of course so there's no loss of money if it loses. Now cashing out gives you instant profit which is very appealing, but I'm thinking in the long term. When I look at the reward I'll get for a horse winning it makes cashing out seem painful cos it's far less.

It can be hard seeing the steady drip drip drip of losses and self doubt and the doubt about the system inevitably creeps in. For me, one of the great benefits of automation is that you can play around with a strategy with nominal amounts and look at long term performance of your brainwave. If you have to toss it, no harm done except the bin is full of scrunched up A4 and the Excel sheet is clogging up the recycle bin.

Thanks Peter!!!

I have lost a big chunk of money trading and now after watching this video, I am unsure as what I should do from this point. I feel so burnt out that I virtually have no energy to do things that I used to do, like exercising 6 days of the week and then I have no money on top of it all. I feel that everything that I go to do is wrong and I can't put any more money into this. Is there anything that you can recommend for me to do? I don't want to give up, but if you say that it's time for me to do so then I will have to face up to that and just stop.

But your win rate is 85% so does that mean you are following a high probability system?

I read somewhere can’t think where a guy said “do the opposite to everyone else “ he wasn’t taking about betfair just sports betting gambling call it what you want ,and he’s right just lay hot favs lay Man Utd ! Don’t keep backing 1.20 stuff it’s boring and not profitable! Quick example tonight I backed both teams to score NO at 2.32 or something close to that The YES was 1.73 really I thought they both would score but thought about “do the opposite to everyone else “ thing and you’ve guessed it it was 0-5 the result . Porto Liverpool

beside a bunch of words , it would be more interesting to see a live example

But your win rate is supposedly 85% so are you saying you use a High probability strategy?

What about the Betfair PC? Advice, please..

Not very practical for someone starting off with a £50 Betfair account

im a beginner in this, so my question might be ignorante but is there a certain strategy that a beginner could follow, or any information you could guide me to?

if I have a system? how do I contact you to ask if it's profitable or not?

Not so long ago there was a horse with a price of 1000. So naturally your analytic mind would have kicked in and think: No way im gonna back that horse coz its not gonna win for sure, like not in a million years 100% ! Guess what. It won the race :) If u had bet on it £2 you would have won £2000 : ) How often does it happen ? No idea. Ask Peter : )

This video seems to be putting off people from trading. Very strange