From Bryn's perspective: Berkey mostly raises with a 6 on turn. Therefore, probably not a 6 and some kind of draw. River comes flush and he bets after it gets checked to him. Probably has a flush. Straight is likely no good, and since he likely doesn't have a 6, I can rep boats. Berkey: Bryn bets when boat hits, but check-raises when flush gets there on river. Since I have the flush, less likely he does; but IF he did have one, he would fire on river as well. Therefore, likely no flush. What hand check raises? A boat that trapped on river would.

My left ear really enjoyed your speaking Grant, haha

The title here should be, "Berkey Making the worst Play Ever". Matt Berkey could be getting check raise bluffed here, because of his volume of raw aggression. Bryn Over-Valued his Straight and Berkey's brain is skewed, to thinking he can make these incredibly Polar moves, that are totally outside the fundamentals of the game. Folding a Q-high flush here to a Check-Raised, 1on1 pot from one of the best players in the world, is just plain wrong. We have seen Matt Fold winners before, that were total HEAD-SCRATCHERS.

What about more basic maths? He beats all trips and knows Berkey can easily fold all the low flushes. He knows Berkey will often try to steal plus also value bet with a HUGE range of hands. His reraise is super strong but he never expects Qhigh flush to fold. Based on pot and stack sizes i think its a bad fold. Berkey levelled himself simple as that. Ultimately we always say we cant change the ranges we decided. He called turn for a flush. He hit his flush. Then guy check raises a hand that makes sense to me woukd check raise - Berkeys % of his range that flushes is small so def check raise the rivered straight. For same reason Berkey gotta call beating straight and trips and pay off house or higher flush. If Bryn was all in i can fold the Q high flush but for 3x its a crying snap call for me..

I am at intermediate level but does this only seem really weird to me only? Berkey folded on a pretty high flush (queen) against only 30 % of the pot raise. That's a must call in my opinion but I may not understand it fully.

Kenney's play worked out very well, but if I were Berkey, part of me would wonder why Kenney would check a full house on the river instead of going for the simple value bet, since a flush would likely call anyway. Also, by checking a boat on the river, Kenney does risk losing value from Berkey's hands that would check behind, e.g. trips or (as Berkey himself muttered) even a flush. Therefore, Berkey should ask himself whether Kenney would really play a full house this way on the river.

The one thing that the guys didn't discuss is the price that Kenney offered Berkey on the river: 3-to-1. That price looks like pure value - it's saying "call me" to a good 6, or better. If you think Berkey is betting for value on on river, and you're offering that price when you raise - given the action on the turn - what hands are you hoping to be called by? Conversely, if you're bluffing, what hands are you trying to get to fold? Note that Berkey, while described as loose/sticky by Grant and Jonathan here, also has made some huge (and sometimes incorrect) folds in streamed cash and tournament positions. I'm not making a claim about what Kenney's true intentions were here, but I think that they definitely needed to discuss the check-raise's sizing in this analysis.

WAIT WAIT, LADS your telling me he pulled off the mystical value bluff, i.e will both get called by worse and fold-out better, sick! Can you PLEASE PLEASE do a covid podcast with bryn ?? I. tweeted him there so it would be great if you could follow it up with him. I think its true 65% of the time. PODCAST WITH BRYN PLEASE!!!

Your hand isn't the perfect pie in the sky hand because holding 7x blocks trip 6's, one of the main hands for this to work. Also Berkey loves to fold in the wrong spots, no doubt.

I have seen Matt Berkey fold to raise on river so many times and he is always wrong. I have also seen him call so many times also was wrong. That was the reason

I don't think that Berkey should be folding a flush here, and therefore, I don't think Kenney should be trying to get a flush to fold. Especially since Kenney has the 7 of diamonds and he blocks a lot of the weaker flushes, making it more likely that if Berkey has a flush, that he has a stronger flush (like a Queen high flush which really should be calling here). Although Q3 is too loose of an open, so the fact that it is Matt Berkey changes things a bit.

Bryn going for thin value vs Berkeys 6x/overpairs that limped/ATcc/JTcc etc. or he's a goat

bryn kenney have a lot of 6 raises for value in 10 and bluffs also can not fold for bryn kenney, fedor holz guys like that play very aggressive, you can not fold a good hand even in the second pair! that's how they make money, everyone folds against them.

My 2c Berkey overfolded, Kenney was trying to get value from trips but he blocks all the 76 combos, a lot of Berkey's flushes have the 8d which would allow him to call because the 8d blocks a lot of full houses. It might look mythical fold better and get called by worse but my guess is, if you put this in a solver, this play is -ev

This has gotta be one of your best breakdowns fellas

Berkey should call because his image is to overfold.

Could we assume he'd bet flop in position with a NFD? So making nut flushes not in his range as much

it's a pretty good sizing since it leaves room for a fold if there is a 3-bet jam. i can't see how anyone folds a flush though...must have put Berkey on a six.

I saw this hand on the stream and they talked about it after the hand and he was going for value, he didn’t think he was bluffing.

Lol he was value betting... no chance he plays it that way if he actually pus Matt on a flush.... he would have shoved otherwise

I would give it a 50% chance. I think having the diamond makes it better. He blocks more possible flushes, making a 6 more likely. The other 50% chance is Kenney is just bluffing. He knows Berkey has almost every flush combo and knows he can’t call with most of them.

Why is he even considering folding a flush?

You guys say that Berkey doesn't like to fold but I've seen him make some unbelievable folds when he folded super strong hands (and got bluffed btw).

the points they made could be true and it still could be a bad bluff. The fact that Brynn was trying to bluff with a straight should give you an indication as to how bad of a value bet with 6x would be so not sure why you're taking it for granted that Berkey would bet with them much less call the raise. you're also mistaken in suggesting that brynns only value here is full houses - berkeys line makes full houses very unlikely and so brynn can easily be raising the nut flush here which is why having the Ad is probably more relevant than having a 6 as a blocker. maybe Berkey bets half pot with Ad6x and then calls but that's a tiny subset of his bet range. you have to range Berkey here as having mostly J high flushes + for value, especially from brynns perspective given that he holds the 7 and that most of the lower flushes left in the deck will have been open ended on the flop and either bet the flop / raised the turn or are hands like 95dd or T3dd which even Berkey is likely to fold pre. brynns raise was to 15k to win 15k, so it has to get folds half the time to be better than a fold. is Q3dd even below the 50th percentile of berkeys hands? it's probably below the 50th percentile of his value range and right around the 50th percentile overall. if we take Berkey at his word that he was seriously considering checking back (or sizing down I guess) then we can probably surmise that this is actually close to the bottom of his value range, in which case this bluff could work and it may still be a bad bluff depending on what he does when he has K or A high flushes. … and this is ignoring the obvious in that even if the raise is better than folding, calling may still actually be better.

I doubt that Bryn knows his hand isnt good. I think he just knows what Matt's range is, which is 6x and flushes mostly but never any boats. And I think he knows his own range which is 6x, flushes, boats, a few other made hands and hardly any bluffs (natural bluffs wink wink). The tough part for Matt is that because his range is capped Bryn can probably XR with king high flushes and better for value

you guys need to increase the volume on these...i can barely hear it

Too much of fancy play, I don't like

Dont buy the "turn straight into bluff" explanation 😊 heavily leaning toward overvaluing

Dudes just use both speakers, I was holding only my right headphone in and was wondering what was up with the weird pauses

i' saw Ivey bluff a guy off of a king-high flush when the 4th spade fell on the river once, to me that was a greater play than this, because Ivey was playing the player..and it was Ivey..if you saw that you'd likely agree. this wasn't the greatest play of all time, sorry~

Having one guy talk into my left ear while the other breathes heavily into my right is a bit disconcerting.

Hes not bluffing there. Hes 100% raising for value. Especially with that sizing. There are so many better hands to bluff with and I dont think he would use that combo to turn into a bluff. That doesnt make sense.

i am defo going to try this online,yes im sure i will easily get flushes/trips to fold

Half of this "best play of all time" theory is true, bryn Kenney was trying to get called by a six. The part about him thinking he can get flushes to fold is not true. This river x/r was purely for value and nothing else. Berkey simply overthought the hand and because he knows that he would've bet a lot of his 6x on the flop he can't expect bryn to be going this thin with this line.

Bryn is betting the best hand, doesn’t get any simpler than that 🙄

I would give him 38%. Bryn is smart and experienced enough to do that.

Maybe just removes As and Ks of diamonds by assuming if old mate has flush here he bets pre? Is that enough? How many F does berkey turn up with here that should call

So according to the reasoning of the commentator you should play 100% of your hands. Because then you can rep everything post flop. 🙃

We're not saying he's an actual Goat.... Pretty sure Mr Pun in the chat wasn't saying that you were.....

I’m in the ‘overvalued his straight’ camp

Give this man some air! Jonathan, stay with us! :)

The commentators are over analyzing this hand.. the guy who raised river could've just thought his Str8 was the best hand and missed the flush possibility. I don't look at this play as oh wow.. I don't give him that much credit.

Easy call...

i would call easy on the river with nearly 80k behind but i am a fish and losingplayer

I would have had to see the boat

River bluff into a flush on a paired board? Poker 101.

Don't u think the doyle brunson, D Negs, David Ben(.....) hand is the greatest of all time? lower flush makes higher flush fold and st8 call....

Berkey has made some really questionable plays . atleast on televised poker

Value for sure

Sam Trickett's in the Triton Million is better

He was targeting a 6 and raising his straight for value ! Keep in mind it checked through on the flop so its not like the pot was bloated.

A Big bluff beats small flush. That's how I read this move.

Do not try this at micro stakes

Berkey pump-faking the fold and generally making quick hand movements for a reaction is scummy

not even close to the best play of all time.... stakes are way too low. Plus the play was meh.

Just don't fold made backdoor flushes on non paired boards. Jesus

You guys take Poker a bit too serious maybe beter to do science or something and let the world ramp on this as The Greatest Play of All time in Poker for Poker lovers

I'm a donk he wouldnt bluff me out here. :D

nope just bad fold.

Пффффффффффффф) Кенни исполняет руку лысого, а он там себе напридумывал. Слабо, очень слабо. Можно тогда за стол вообще не садиться.

This isnt even the first time Bryn did stuff like this. "Advanced bluff". kzfaq.info/get/bejne/rceZqNeI1tO-qoE.html

This is a really silly hand

Berky put Kenny on A8 diamonds FLOP Another 💎 hit the Turn and River So Kenny popping it on the River was CLEARY Masterful...

'no pie in sky since 2017' but i have make this play every day very easy!!

that's why I am so bad at cash-games, I'm always calling there...

Bryn very smart guy. ofc he attacks flushes