Poker Math You NEED to Know

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2 ай бұрын

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Poker is a very mathematical game and it can seem overwhelming at first, but study this video and put the lessons into practice and you will quickly learn how to use these strategies effectively to increase your win rate.
I discuss several key points of poker math and game theory including pot odds, minimum defense frequency, pot sized raises and more!
Poker Math You NEED To Know:
Poker Math Subject #1 - Pot Sized Raise
Poker Math Subject #2 - Pot Odds
Poker Math Subject #3 - Balanced River Value To Bluff Proportion
Poker Math Subject #4 - Required Bluff Success Frequency
Poker Math Subject #5 - Minimum Defense Frequency
In order to take your poker game to the next level it is vitally important you learn all the nuances of the game.
Do you know what ranges of poker hands you should be playing from each position? When should you 3-bet, call or fold? When is the right time to make a hero call or a huge bluff? Do you know how to play preflop, flop, turn & river effectively and how should your poker strategy change depending on the street? What difference does it make if you are playing multi-way vs heads-up?
#pokermath #pokerstrategy #jonathanlittle

Пікірлер: 120

@Ggoodlad1 2 ай бұрын

Minimum defense strategy is my recent focus - THANK you for addressing this! You are the best!

@davionharris8005 Ай бұрын

Much needed, thanks a lot JL. Will be reaching out soon.

@PokerCoaching Ай бұрын

You're welcome!

@gonzalotonini322 Ай бұрын

Thanks for your work

@cjgooding4512 2 ай бұрын

I like how online you can change it to BBs like who cares how much chips you have or whatever it's all about how many big blinds you have it's nice that you can do a quick setting online to convert it so you don't even have to see the actual chip or money amount. I haven't tried live poker yet except back in the day with some buddies so I don't know if this will be a big adjustment or not but when I play online I only view big blinds aka minimum bet how many minimum bets do you have in your stack.

@gkb1973 2 ай бұрын

I need help with the concept of percentage of bluffs in my range vs my bet size. I think part of my issue is in game I tend to think about my exact hand vs the range I should have based on my position and preflop action. Can you give me an example of a range that arrives on the river making a 2x pot jam needing 43% bluffs?

@Ajfkoeic 2 ай бұрын

W video Jonathan!

@kiranjain491 17 сағат бұрын

Huge information in this video. Especially river bluff proportions, people think about NUT equity but never bluff equity

@DB-dg3gt 2 ай бұрын

It’s kind of funny: Many years ago before I saw any of your instructional videos, you really were a complete mystery to me. And as I watched you play with your sunglasses on, you really looked scary formidable. I am sure what added to that, was seeing that you were a very skilled player. I had this thought while just watching you, how different you are from your poker persona. You are actually a really nice guy and a loving husband and father. I don’t think you have talked about one’s poker persona? Do you think this important ??? Thank you for all your help. Clearly God has blessed you with a beautiful family. Oh, I was so happy for you when you won that tournament. Well played.

@leonlengauer197 2 ай бұрын

Hey :) first I wanna say I love ur videos :) thx so much! Is the equilab still available for free? Because my download does not work. Whould be really nice if u could help me 😅😊

@DavidTURNER-we4ek 20 күн бұрын

Thanks. I also would like to know what is and how to use bluff catchers? Another value is the chart of equity of hands preflop and calculating equity on flop, turn, and river. How is that done without a poker solver at the table quickly at a live game?

@mikezilberbrand1663 Ай бұрын

One correction. If your opponent bets 100 into 400, then you call 100 in the total of 600pot, getting 1/5 odds. Need to win 1/6th or 16.7%. Other than that, a very good lecture!

@CapoLady 26 күн бұрын

Negative ghostwriter, betting $100 into $400= $500

@user-cy1tl4hk7z 16 күн бұрын

@@CapoLady well Maverick, ghostwriter actually said if the opponent bets $100 into $400 that would equal $500, and then if YOU also bet $100 in the same pot if my math is correct, $500 + $100 does in fact equal $600 lol

@CapoLady 16 күн бұрын

@user-cy1tl4hk7z I don't believe you add your hundred when figuring pot odds

@CapoLady 15 күн бұрын

@user-cy1tl4hk7z I don't believe you add your hundred

@harold7792 10 күн бұрын

You're correct that Jonathan made an error in that example, and you're correct on your answers. It's just that to calculate the ODDS ratio like Jonathan teaches, and how the poker pros calculate, one determines the amount of the pot *before* the (your) call . Hence, the calculation of the odds ratio is as follows: After the opponent bets 100 into the 400 pot, then the current pot is 500. You then have to call 100 to win the current pot of 500 (that "current" pot is the amount *before* your call). *Thus, the ODDS ratio equal 5:1.* Also, note how, in math terminology, the odds ratio is written (use the colon). You're correct about the percentage. You can compute the percentage the way Jonathan teaches, or one can compute it as follows: Odds ratio of 5:1 means there are 5+1=6 total *parts* (simply add the numbers in the odds ratio). Hence, the probability, or percentage, equals 1 part out of 6 total parts = 1/6 = 16.7%. This might be also how you were calculating the percentage based on the odds ratio. Well, maybe all of my comment is what you were saying, but mine is just long-winded.

@liyexiang666 Ай бұрын

can u maybe do one with muiti street consideration? cuz all this only apply on river

@fernandolucero8847 Ай бұрын

I need help in calculating equity of my hand pre-flop

@vicosam6055 Ай бұрын

The Best Video Ever!!!

@PokerCoaching 29 күн бұрын

So glad you appreciate it!

@kaisaarnio7208 2 ай бұрын

Played my first live bounty tournament today, made one bounty on 2bullets 😅

@brianlee1417 2 ай бұрын

Is 4-8 limit holdem beatable in the long run with a $5 rake?

@BirdmanPRRT 2 ай бұрын

Of course not

@TheNoobsterForever 2 ай бұрын

7:44 is wrong i think, it should be “call 100 to win 500” since we need to add the opponent’s $100 bet too

@piggy4651 2 ай бұрын

i agree

@icey2203 2 ай бұрын

Yea I was confused on that as well. All hes doing is adding extra math.

@harold7792 10 күн бұрын

You're correct. Hence the pot odds ratio = 5:1. And the percentage = 1/6 = 16.7%. The percentage can be computed how Jonathan teaches, which is: Percentage = 100 / (100 + 500) = 100/600 = 1/6 = 16.7%. When you compute the odds ratio first, which is how Jonathan teaches, then another way to compute the percentage is: The odds ratio is 5:1, which means there are 5+1=6 total parts (simply add the numbers in the odds ratio). Hence, the percentage, equals 1 part out of 6 total parts = 1/6 = 16.7%.

@AndrewMatias 23 күн бұрын

Hi Jonathan, question regarding pot odds I thought you explain. Once you get your pot odds, say 33%, how do we know if our hand will win 33% of the time? Are you assigning a range to your opponent as well as know how often your current hands wins?

@stevenwilson8718 18 күн бұрын

I also have a hard time understand that

@stefanthiselton5490 2 ай бұрын

u gave wrong detail in pot odds, bet 100 into 400 is 5:1 odds, u said call hundred to win 400 when it is 500. also i love your work, poker coaching has improved my tourney game and cash game remarkably. thank you for ur content J.Little

@harold7792 8 күн бұрын

You're correct about his mistake.

@CostaRicaJack 2 ай бұрын

Thank you for this video. Clears things up a great deal.

@betweenthepylons5506 Ай бұрын

*me listening and taking notes to remember for later* My Wife from the other room: "what if a blind man is facing three blind mice in the big blind?"

@areon912 2 ай бұрын

Is there a reason why in one example it was 100 into a 400 pot so the equation was 100/(100+400) and in the other example it was 1500 into a 8000 pot but the equation was 1500/(1500+9500) ? One example added the bet we’re facing into the initial pot and one didn’t

@newstandardaccount 2 ай бұрын

Yes, Jonathan made a mistake on the 400 pot. If your opponent bets 100 into a $400 pot, it is now a $500 pot, so the odds are 5:1, not 4:1

@fullsamadhi Ай бұрын

Thank you both! This was bugging me.

@semirgj Ай бұрын

This almost broke my poor public school brain.

@AT-qm8gv Ай бұрын

@@newstandardaccountI think he made a mistake on both. The second one should be 1500/(1500+8000) which does = 6.33:1 but the percentage is 15.79%.

@simplexity92 Ай бұрын

⁠@@AT-qm8gvfor percentage it’s risk/(risk+reward), so 1500 to risk and get 9500 reward (8000 in pot + bet of 1500). So 1500/(1500+9500)=0.136 so 13.6%. But your pot odds still are 9500:1500 (simply reward:risk), that means 6.33:1. don’t mix that up with percentage. Bonus… Also you can do 1/(1+6,33)=0.136 so 13.6%

@AnHonestPerspective 4 күн бұрын

How strict is that "if raise is 30% of your stack all in"? If I've got pocket 4s and I'm low on chips, am I really all in?

@sharonmckay2886 2 ай бұрын

10:53 2nd Paragraph. "Balanced river value to bluff proportion" What happens when my 'opponent' is 'opponents'? Plural? One is crazy loose and the other is nitty?

@atfti 2 ай бұрын

When you're multiway, you really wanna have the nuts. Two crazy Villains and you're prolly ahead. Two nitty Villain's and you're definitely behind. One of each means use your position

@Xaros103765 2 ай бұрын

Give them worst odds to call

@qsdailydose8970 2 ай бұрын

If you should make it bigger with antes in play why do a lot of tournament players min raise ? Stack size ?

@milessitcawich5947 2 ай бұрын

Yes

@johnristheanswer 2 ай бұрын

I always struggle with a player saying they're getting say 4 to 1 odds to call or whatever , when half the money in the pot is what they have already put in themselves on previous streets. Isn't that evens ?

@Moosedrool8 2 ай бұрын

Yeah but the money you put in the pot is a sunk cost since it’s already in there.

@mikaeus468 2 ай бұрын

Basically, if you have 4 to 1 odds on the turn, and are getting those odds, it's a good call. However, if you misplayed the flop, you might still be losing in this situation over the long run. You just lose even more when you fold.

@harold7792 8 күн бұрын

I understand your question, and the guys who replied above are correct. I only want to point out that Jonathan made an error in the opponent's 100 bet and 400 pot example. That 400 pot is the bet *before* the opponent's bet. Jonathan states that the odds ratio is 4:1; however, the correct odds ratio is 5:1. Below, I explain why: The odds ratio is computed by determining the ratio of the (your) call to the pot *including (or after)* the opponent's bet. Hence, the pot, including the opponent's 100 bet, is 500. And therefore, the odds ratio is 5:1.

@Michael-sz7lp Ай бұрын

Things I learned from this video: I'm not bluffing enough

@theedge8659 3 күн бұрын

or 1/(1+4)=.20

@shinom0ri 12 күн бұрын

I really wish you didn't screw up the math on the odds to percentages section. It really threw me for a loop and made learning this a lot harder than it needed to be.

@KEVKEV-yi2mp Ай бұрын

the 4:1 example is wrong, you state that opponent betting 100 into 100 pot is 2:1 (200:100 odds), so if opponent bets 100 into 400 pot you have to call 100 into what is now a 500 pot (500:100 odds). 5:1

@harold7792 8 күн бұрын

I agree with you.

@MajorCanada Ай бұрын

Pot Odds could be explained less about opponent activities and more simply based on our total call to pot size ratio. The pot becomes $500 if our opponent bets $100 into a $400 pot. Therefore we are getting 5:1 on the call.

@harold7792 10 күн бұрын

I agree, and Jonathan made an error in that example.

@ellestar2306 3 күн бұрын

I learned The Rule of 4 & 2 from the great, Phil Gordon

@mgrizz1123 Ай бұрын

I’m going to need to watch this video 100 Times. Thanks again, sir!

@PokerCoaching Ай бұрын

So glad you found it helpful!

@backpacker3421 2 ай бұрын

Honestly, there are relatively few math problems to learn and they repeat over and over again as you play. IT PAYS to just memorize them. Nothing is a bigger tell than you sitting there staring at the table and counting silently to yourself or staring at the ceiling while you run the math. If you want to, memorize the math playing online, so you can take a second and work it out without it being an obvious tell. That way, when you are live, you'll just know what the math is and what bets you should fold to, what you should call, or how much to bet to set the price you want to exploit. It's a lot harder to read when you appear to be picking the bet amount out of thin air then when you are clearly carefully considering it.

@cjgooding4512 2 ай бұрын

If only everything was converted into big blinds like I can do online with a quick setting change

@backpacker3421 2 ай бұрын

@@cjgooding4512 with a little practice, that head math becomes automatic, especially since big blinds are usually super easy head math numbers like 2, 3, 5, 10 etc. Especially if you stick your favored play level, that head math becomes super easy.... but you don't even really need it. It doesn't change the math at all for this purpose. The results will always be the same wether in dollars or blinds.

@darcem9752 2 ай бұрын

I don’t understand why a pot sized bet is 3x previous bet + remaining amount. Why the 3x? Shouldn’t it be 2x? If someone opened to 2bb, the pot is 3.5. Wouldn’t you make it 5.5 by calling the 2 and raise the 3.5? I feel like I must be missing some fundamental principle. Any clarification would be helpful 😊

@atfti 2 ай бұрын

I bet 1. You raise by pot, which is what you *would* call PLUS the size of the pot at that moment. My 1 + your potential 1 makes 2, and the raise is strictly pot size, so your 1 + plus 2 more makes 3. 1*3=3

@krellis1000 Ай бұрын

Why multiply by 3 for a pot sized raise? Surely the pot is just the raise + other money in the pot. 4.5 bb facing a 3bb raise, and 9.5bb vs a 2bb raise and 6bb 3bet

@martindim7182 Ай бұрын

9:24 "you need to realize at least 20 percent equity", is this another way of saying " you need to have at least 20 percent equity"? The way he says it, it feels like "you must make the effort to realize at least 20 percent" as if I have any control over the cards I have

@sankalpverma618 Ай бұрын

You don't "realize" equity enough from out of position, and over realize it in position. That's the difference from the actual mathematical equity .

@theedge8659 3 күн бұрын

oh i see why you the actual pot number to avoid a decimal like 4.3 to one gotcha

@vicosam6055 29 күн бұрын

Can you make the Poker Math Easier ??

@MrMrPopols Ай бұрын

Bro, so I do need to count my chips to know how much i have, I need to count other 9 players chips to know their stacks, I need to count my pot odds their pot odds more over I some how need to count that mush of chips that diller pulled in to the middle and all that in 30 seconds after the action is on me ? Like there is no way of doing it LIFE ....

@MrMrPopols Ай бұрын

oh yeah I forgot, how in the world you know how many of witch hands you had or raised or bluffed with ? If gto says you should re-raise and call 50%-50% of the times like 20 hands how will YOU REMEMBER all the hands you had and how you played them ? normally mtt gives me each good had only once if at all

@jonathanjones1573 Ай бұрын

As a meth guy, I mean Math guy, I found this breakdown pretty cool. I had been questioning my defense strategy against C bets so this helps!

@francescoiadicicco1266 2 ай бұрын

Ok my brain melted on the required bluff success frequency. How do I figure that my opponent folds X% of the times?

@milessitcawich5947 2 ай бұрын

Observing their play

@atfti 2 ай бұрын

Yeah, it takes some attentive effort to predict your opponents' actions, which would switch the moment they realize they're giving away information somehow

@user-uc2ch4mk9i Ай бұрын

OMG--people follow this--run Forrest run

@dharryg 2 ай бұрын

Great, concise information. However, none of it consoles having my Aces cracked in a cash game today by calling an all-in pre-flop by a pair of Kings and then less than an hour later, calling another pre-flop all- in by the same guy and having my Kings cracked by a set of nines. Poker is not all numbers and logic. LOL! Sometimes, it is illogically painful.

@chujwie4028 2 ай бұрын

get used to it or stay mad your choice

@mattmatti6183 2 ай бұрын

Stick to watching Cocomelon

@DHpoker27 2 ай бұрын

U do know when u get all in pre flop. Over pair vs under pair. - AA. Has 83% equity KK 17% equity. So yeah u only win 4 of 5 times. So it is just math. N if u play long term over large sample. The more u realize it's just all math n %

@DHpoker27 2 ай бұрын

N sure maybe for a recreational who buys a case of Bud Light on a Friday night n plays for fun. It might be painful But for someone who plays because they love the game. N does it professionally then it's all just math. N no difference in flopping quads n loosing to runner runner straight flush. Or. Getting a coffee at ur local coffee shop. ( it's all routine and happens. A certain % of the time. ) So yeah depends what perspective ur coming from

@nelsonmercadojr2749 Ай бұрын

70% luck 30% skill

@davidboyd374 Ай бұрын

This guy can talk under water....about... NOTHING 😂😂

@armando.visuals 16 күн бұрын

07:39 the math is wrong there. Its 5:1... also in 09:16 the math is wrong... 4:1 is 25% 3:1 is 33%... What is happening!? lol

@harold7792 8 күн бұрын

You're right about the example at 07:39 (the odds ratio is 5:1). ....However, you are not correct about his slide in 09:16. I explain why, below. Jonathan shows how to convert odds into a percentage by using the (your) call to the current pot. However, the easier way is the following, and this answers the figures in 09:16: Odds ratio of 4:1 means there are 4+1=5 total parts (simply add the numbers in the odds ratio). Hence, the probability, or percentage, equals 1 part out of 5 total parts = 1/5 = 20%. ...Then, follow these same steps to determine and match the percentages of a 3:1 odds ratio and the other odds ratios Jonathan shows on that screen. I hope that helps.

@armando.visuals 8 күн бұрын

@@harold7792 i see thank you!!!

@allanpeters4297 Ай бұрын

I have been.playing poker for a few years now. Maybe am a bit think but I never have a clue what this guy is talking about. Am sure others keep up quiet well I also consider myself ok at math. I have 3 of his books too which are also a mystery to me.

@allanpeters4297 Ай бұрын

Definitely won't be buying more books or doing any of the courses

@harold7792 5 күн бұрын

@@allanpeters4297 I suggest reading the Dan Harrington series of books (3 books), in which he explains the fundamentals of poker tournament strategy in a clear and straightforward manner such that a layperson will understand them. They really helped me a lot. Dan Harrington final-tabled the Main Event two years in a row, in 2002 and 2003, when Chris Moneymaker won. The series of books were written, I believe, in the mid- and late 2000s. He talks some about math, but again he breaks it down so nicely. If you reply to this comment, I'll suggest another series of books by a different author that were written in the late 2000s and early 2010s. I've never read any of Jonathan's books, but were his first couple of books easy to understand. I would have to think so. His first few books, as so many books by authors before or around the time he started writing books, were written before the solver era.

@allanpeters4297 5 күн бұрын

@harold7792 thanks for the advice

@JTMagXX 11 күн бұрын

This entire philosophy of “over time” probability’s is a complete waste of time…you know who doesn’t think about these numbers? Phil Ivy, Daniel L. And their history is proven. One hand at a time, intuition over Overthinking and over analyzing, which is all this is

@johnr733 23 күн бұрын

You talking too much and your voice is not appealing.

@adambrown8867 Ай бұрын

If you're lucky is a big part of poker. I'm playing solid, based, fundamentally sound poker yet I'm a loser getting felted 9 out of 10 sessions. This happens to me all the time. Either I'm losing to calling stations playing off suit spread out junk to make the best hand on the river to my big pairs, or flopped set or 2 pair, or they flop a set to my over pair, or I miss flopping a set to their over pair. Over & over & over. So I essentially just quit playing. Im not lucky. Further example of this is I never win anything playing slot machines. I've seen poker players I would say are better than me, knowing charts, lose everything & go to the slot machines & come back with $1500 to $2500 to play poker again in 15 minutes.

@sankalpverma618 Ай бұрын

I think the technical term for this "luck" is - variance. Over the long term it would even out.

@sweeep8609 Ай бұрын

If you are getting felted out 9/10 sessions over the long run, you are not unlucky, you are just worse palyer than your playgroup

@adambrown8867 Ай бұрын

@sweeep8609 Luck is a huge factor in poker, like 50%, that nobody likes to talk about for some reason. If it wasn't the best players would never lose. Simple.

@sweeep8609 Ай бұрын

@@adambrown8867 I never said that, of course there is luck. I said if you keep losing over and over most of the time then there is also a skill issue

@riz87 Ай бұрын

If you play bad opponents - GTO doesn’t help you. You just have to analyze how your opponents play and then adjust accordingly

@nicusordragne743 Ай бұрын

My friend, what you say there is nonsese! În online, all company's have bots! To keep the biggest pot on them! How do you explain to me in 10 years of playing I do not win 1 tournament? Stop to make this cuz is non sense with the game! With all you're strategy, when them decide to get you out, you're out!!!! Period

@martindim7182 Ай бұрын

What's interesting here is you haven't won a single tournament after 10 years of play and yet, you are still playing?? What exactly is the long term goal here? Someone famous once said "it's ludicrous to do the same thing over and over again and then expect different results"

@nicusordragne743 Ай бұрын

@@martindim7182 I done with online poker since the pas from RNG to the New sistem. I did modyfy my strategy în all ways posible and imposibile, belive me! În key moments aways is a bad beat no matter how you play în position or out of poziționare! And I play a lot, like 15, 20 tournaments a day! It is how it is! Bots!! Many bots like the pot to stay to them! I'm silly about them. When a computer decide my money, is not alright!

@biobio903 Ай бұрын

Perhaps you aren’t as good as think you are.