Putin's 'Mystical' Nuclear Strategy

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Vlad Vexler

Vlad Vexler

Күн бұрын

As Putin's brutal invasion of Ukraine continues, I argue that we need to adapt the notion of rationality we apply to nuclear actors. Understanding Putin as a nuclear actor means understanding his values - this constitutes a much needed enrichment of the notion of rationality we use in discourse about nuclear deterrence.
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00:00 Putin and nuclear risk
01:54 Nuclear rationality
03:35 Putin's rationality
06:34 Arguments against nuclear risk (Timothy Snyder)
08:58 Assessing arguments against nuclear risk
12:49 3 take aways

Пікірлер: 1 200
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
WATCH NEXT Why Putin Became A Killer kzfaq.info/get/bejne/b7mFndR627y-eI0.html kzfaq.info/get/bejne/gZp_ZqdoqMy4mHU.html The Riddle of Why Russians Don't Protest Why Russians Rejected Freedom (Gorbachev) kzfaq.info/get/bejne/jKuqaLmku7LUZKc.html Putin's Partial Mobilisation (it's disastrous) kzfaq.info/get/bejne/ftiRqbeKuK-6pWg.html ------ You can now support Vlad's work on Patreon! www.patreon.com/vladvexler Support Vlad via PayPal www.paypal.com/paypalme/vladvexler?country.x=GB&locale.x=en_GB ------- MORE TO WATCH The REAL meaning of the killing of Dugin's daughter kzfaq.info/get/bejne/r5OKnpp8nrvSYok.html The Postmodern Hell Of Russian Propaganda kzfaq.info/get/bejne/ldBmicpo3rLcZWg.html Why the Crimea Bridge Attack Shows Putin's Decline kzfaq.info/get/bejne/fMyqhKl0z6q0g2Q.html THIS explains why Russia starts insane wars kzfaq.info/get/bejne/jJyFnKiJ17zWpps.html
@joshgraybill182
@joshgraybill182 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for getting this video out. Love your work.
@lrt14174
@lrt14174 Жыл бұрын
Putin has already passed the point of no return. The nuclear escalation therefore will be one of his next steps. In my opinion, the real reason for the last mobilisation in Russia was not to win the war with more soldiers, but to let young men die in the Ukraine war, identify and arrest those who oppose the war and drive the rest out of Russia. It would have been these young men who would have taken to the streets in any demonstrations to demand a change of system and overthrow Putin. We believe that Russia has ruined its future, but only if the world order does not change. If there is a global nuclear war that destroys our current livelihood with all its global interconnections, Russia would be better off because Russia is used to renunciation and deprivation and a dissatisfied population cannot topple the regime because of a lack of young men. This means that nuclear escalation is not an option for Putin, but a necessary measure.
@rndompersn3426
@rndompersn3426 Жыл бұрын
I think another reason he might not use nukes is that he's simply having too much fun playing war general. It sounds like a joke but I think Putin actually enjoys the high stakes and map warfare.
@peterbeer8657
@peterbeer8657 Жыл бұрын
I've been tracking events and looking at all kinds of information about this war since the beginning. I'm not an expert on Putin, but of course I too try to estimate what he would or wouldn't do and such things. I've also started following you channel, since come up with really relevant information and a much better understanding of Russia than I will even be able to get. So, I too have thought about the things you've been sharing that Putin has said in the past and I've come to believe something else: Going back a lot of your video's, Putin said that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest catastrophe in the 20th century. Thinking about that more, I think Putin didn't mean it literally. The collapse of the Soviet Union is his personal greatest loss and he likes talking about it as if it was humanity's greatest loss as that view is to his convenience. In much the same way I would interpret Putin's nuclear war views. I mean 'As marters, Russians would go to heaven' is actually Putin's way of saying 'I like to be able to use nuclear weapons as threats, so Russians should think of nukes like this and let me make the threats I want to make.'. Meanwhile explaining himself like this doesn't make it clear to the West that he doesn't really want to use nuclear weapons, he just wants credible threats. The rest of his explanations is just to further that agenda, nothing more to it. I personally don't think Putin's words ever should be taken literally, but of course I could be wrong, just sharing this information/view, maybe it's of some use to you. Thanks for your great work.
@BubblegumCreepydoll
@BubblegumCreepydoll Жыл бұрын
Dear Vlad, You got an IMPOSTER leaving comments on every thread 🧵 here. Or at least on many of the latest comments.
@davidwarren9204
@davidwarren9204 Жыл бұрын
When he talks about a "world without Russia in it", I recall a line from the movie Der Untergang (The Downfall) where Magda Goebbels, as a justification for poisoning her six children, says she doesn't want them to live in a world without Hitler...
@ryanjonathanmartin3933
@ryanjonathanmartin3933 Жыл бұрын
Yep. When I heard that line from Putin I was shocked. Yes up until that point he had been a jackass but that was the point I realised he had gone off the deep end.
@arturganczarski500
@arturganczarski500 Жыл бұрын
@@ryanjonathanmartin3933 The hypocrisy of Putin's statement is absolutely absurd, he equates himself with Russia. The truth is that the last Romanovs probably thought the same, yet Russia is still there, and will be there, unless Russians take Putin's words for granted and destroy Russia by going down Putin's bath.
@fluffydyson2406
@fluffydyson2406 Жыл бұрын
Is your problem that you cant read? Or perhaps you were just listening to Vlad, who within a minute completely misquotes Putin, despite the text being in front of his face...thereby revealing his appalling anti-Russian bias? "What good is the world FOR US (ie. the Russians) if it is a world without Russia?", is what Putin actually said and it is entirely different to Vlad's misrepresentation.
@petertromp8786
@petertromp8786 Жыл бұрын
This is one of the only channels that truly delve into multidimensional thinking on the topic of Russia-Ukraine and does so in a multidisciplinary way.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you!!
@edmurth
@edmurth Жыл бұрын
Something that is lacking in western politics at the moment unfortunately. It feels like some parts of Eastern Europe are proving to be better examples of this currently.
@petertromp8786
@petertromp8786 Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler My pleasure. Please keep doing your great analysis. Lots of love from South Africa.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
@@petertromp8786 Love back!
@ivancho5854
@ivancho5854 Жыл бұрын
@@edmurth Being at the cutting edge sharpens the mind of the Eastern European.
@williamhenry8914
@williamhenry8914 Жыл бұрын
If we give in to nuclear blackmail, we'll wake up to a world in which nuclear blackmail is normal. So while it's interesting to ponder the question, I don't see any alternative but to simply ignore the threats entirely. Pragmatically, is better face down one risk today than an endless procession of them tomorrow.
@ferrariguy8278
@ferrariguy8278 Жыл бұрын
It would almost be rational, in the face of Putin's version of rationality, for the West to become the nut banging his shoe on the UN lectern noting that the billion of us in the West would simply overrun and take all of Russia for our own rather than go through a nuclear exchange if Russia were to hit us to try to wipe us out; except that would be totally out of character for the West. But Unless Russia is going to nuke itself, the West simply taking Russia for itself subjugating it's comparatively small population (or treating them as Russians have treated others) as it's new home is the sort of the crazy answer to why his views on wiping everyone else out to enjoy being wiped out are futile. This does seem escalatory and character crushing though 😀
@George.Andrews.
@George.Andrews. Жыл бұрын
I'm with you
@noapology88
@noapology88 Жыл бұрын
If we back P into a corner, humiliating him, making him lose "face", we're looking for trouble.
@yourlocalengineer
@yourlocalengineer Жыл бұрын
@@noapology88 Yet letting him get away with it can invite just as much trouble
@Billy-Joe-Carl-Bob-Danny-Frank
@Billy-Joe-Carl-Bob-Danny-Frank Жыл бұрын
Damn straight! Yet, the threats should not be ignored, but met with very precise counter threats. Or rather, clear cut information about what the consequences will be, if the Russkies proceeds with, whatever they are threatening to do next. Be it chemical, biological, or nuclear. Or something entirely different, like blowing up a dam. Or as it usually goes according to the Russian disinformation guide book.. "what their adversaries, will do next". So it needs not to be directly escalatory.. You just make sure the message is very precise and clear. And then you just stand firm. That's the only way to keep a psychopath/sociopath from escalating his ambitions anyways. Because that's the only language he/she understands. And Putin is a thoroughgoing example of this.
@johnnycondor
@johnnycondor Жыл бұрын
The level of nuclear risk is unknown, but we should all continue to fully support Ukraine unwaveringly and indefinitely.
@Acekhan201
@Acekhan201 Жыл бұрын
"Victimized by their own expertise" is a world-class description the whole world needs to chew on these days. That's a gem of an idea, Vlad!
@ferney2936
@ferney2936 Жыл бұрын
In my view "deluded by their own expertise" would be better
@SlpBeauty333
@SlpBeauty333 Жыл бұрын
Very few people can escape that though. Great genius is usually accompanied by some level of madness.
@Sindrijo
@Sindrijo Жыл бұрын
The other side of the Dunning-Kruger coin.
@BubblegumCreepydoll
@BubblegumCreepydoll Жыл бұрын
@@SlpBeauty333 The madness of the crowed is what concerns me the most these days, because most expert seem to be blind to this madness that is growing and spreading in an organic way, or they are too victimized by their expertise to deal with it in a collective interdisciplinary manner.
@SlpBeauty333
@SlpBeauty333 Жыл бұрын
@@BubblegumCreepydoll Well as an American, I find our Republican party's inability to recognize Trumperdink for the shameless, thieving, narcissist that he is really scary. John Oliver has a great piece on Sinclair media that does a great job of explaining how the media has been able to get people to believe his particular brand of bullshit. It's hard for anyone to overcome that level of lying. Although we went to see my mom's side of the family and I stayed behind with my relatives? Dad shut them down so fast it was chef's kiss beautiful. "Yes, I had homeroom with Rudy Giuliani in my junior year." Then everyone just had to shut up because we literally know these people.
@fintux
@fintux Жыл бұрын
I've said for months now, that we cannot predict Putin's actions by thinking what would be the logical thing for a Western leader to do in his position, because clearly he has been repeatedly doing thing that Western leaders have been considering illogical. We must think what the enemy thinks, not what we would think if we were the enemy. I also fully agree about the multi-disciplinary view: it is not only about military, but also about psychology, culture, philosophy, history, economy, ... I hope your voice will be heard by those Wester leaders who make important calls on the decisions related to the war.
@LA-kc7ev
@LA-kc7ev Жыл бұрын
Yes. I have read a few books now and a consistent theme is that US leaders tend to think that Putin thinks 'like us' -when he does not.
@AstroGremlinAmerican
@AstroGremlinAmerican Жыл бұрын
There's only one discipline required, Putinology. The billionaire he put in prison says the only thing Putin understands is force.
@fintux
@fintux Жыл бұрын
@@AstroGremlinAmerican well yea, there's also a Finnish expert Martti J Kari who has said about this years before war (you can see one of his lectures here: kzfaq.info/get/bejne/oaxpftWW2b7Veqs.html - you can enable English subtitles there, unfortunately I don't think he has done any content speaking English). But what is putinology? Why is it the way it is? Why the whole regime works the way it does, and what is the role of the russian citizens? For getting answers to those questions, that is where I think more disciplines are required. Even though yes, the distilled answer pretty much is force.
@MrApolkov
@MrApolkov Жыл бұрын
If this were a Chess game, both players would be playing chess. Matching against Putin the possibility that he will set the house on fire just to get back at you for taking both his knights is very real.
@fintux
@fintux Жыл бұрын
@@MrApolkov he would also say that it's your fault and he just had to do it as a preventative measure. And then he would go crying to the arbiter how the opponent touched the board at a wrong time so he must be declared the winner.
@matthewyabsley
@matthewyabsley Жыл бұрын
I lived in Berlin, also visited Moscow and have had some exposure to Russian media (past and present). There seemed to be a visible difference between war memorials in the west and Russia. The people lost during wars were remembered for their sacrifices. In Russia it seemed there was a slant towards the glory of Russia through those people. A celebration of how mighty Russia is, how much. Celebration of suffering. Very weird
@monkeywrench2800
@monkeywrench2800 Жыл бұрын
Glad to see you are feeling better, and happy to see your latest works so valuable to all of us trying to unravel all the madness inside Russia. Thank you!
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much!
@zulubeatz1
@zulubeatz1 Жыл бұрын
Second that. This channel is an Oasis of Intelligence that has helped me massively.
@herbertnorman617
@herbertnorman617 Жыл бұрын
It really is. I remember just a week before the war, I was thinking that it might happen, but I still doubted it - becaus it would be such an irrational thing to do even in the self-interest of Russia. Then that speech immediately before the war came out and it dawned on me that, yes, Russia will really invade, and my position as a casual observer had completely misjudged the motivations at hand. Like so many in the western sphere, I used to think of Putin as a cold, ruthless, self-centered rational demagogue, when that was only maybe half the story. This channel more than any other has helped with creating an understanding of Putin and Russia as a political power that finally goes beyond the vey casual and incomplete take I and many in the west have had before. So, yes, than you for your work, it is appreciated and helps a lot of people tring to genuinely understand what is happening right now in geopolitics where it concerns Russia.
@saimbhat6243
@saimbhat6243 Жыл бұрын
mean I would want my leader to state that there is no point in world existing without his people surviving in it. Shouldn't that be the core of anything called "defense policy". And I don't agree that you are a philosopher, at least I know for certainty that your analysis of ukraine war isn't philosophical but vulgar psychoanalysis of putin's "complete metaphysical worldview", to which you somehow have a direct access. I wonder what would be your psychoanalysis of minds of western leaders over the scam of iraq invasion? The way I see it, putin wants to make russia a hegemonic regional and global super power, a glory for russian nation. Well, I don't find it irrational at all. The only way to achieve it is to be successful at whatever putin is doing. And I wish that he is successful in his endeavors. A shift of some cultural/economic/military/political hegemony from west to rest of the world is the best thing for all the non-western cultures in the world. We don't want west to continue come marching into our lands in different forms in the name of WMDs, LGBTQ+ rights, Democracy, secularism, progress and science etc. to shape us in their form. West barely constitutes 15% of worlds population but somehow have monopoly to represent human nature, values, culture and human future etc. India, china and in general the global south have had enough of being dominated by the west. Putin, russia and every country has right to seek hegemony and power over others in the same way as west had far last few centuries.
@papercup2517
@papercup2517 Жыл бұрын
@@saimbhat6243 Are you just copy/pasting this same comment under every OP? You make some valid points, and I like the idea of doing a comparative analysis of say, the US and its allies' psychology regarding the Iraq war with its imaginary WMDs, and Mr Putin's reactions to imaginary threats from Ukraine, NATO and the US. There are clearly some parallels here that could lead not just to better understanding of those we may regard as our enemies in current conflicts, but to greater self-knowledge. Both types of knowledge are invaluable, and both need more attention, in my view, if we are to evolve as a species beyond the age of endless wars aimed at forced dominion over unwilling others.
@JinKee
@JinKee Жыл бұрын
Madman Theory: the only effective nuclear actors are those mad enough to make a credible suicidal threat.
@ThePussukka
@ThePussukka Жыл бұрын
I love your style of editing! I love all the little touches, and more importantly that you don't over-do it.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
The editing style is: I haven't finished the editing!
@beachbum77979
@beachbum77979 Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler Haven't finished, haven't overdone it. Looks fine to me. Perfect balance.
@eliseleonard3477
@eliseleonard3477 Жыл бұрын
I love the way you take us on your journey to find the viewing angle from which complex things can be better understood without oversimplification. After many years as a psychiatrist I’m still fascinated by the way we behave, but I’m increasingly aware that ‘getting from point A to point B’ is achieved by radically different internal steps by people who appear to be doing the same thing. This can’t be overlooked. Thanks once again, and good health to you 😘
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Wonderful words.
@gjk282
@gjk282 Жыл бұрын
This isn't all that new to regulars of the channel, but oh boy is this a concise essay. Thank you, Vlad! I will be sharing this a lot.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
So glad you liked, and so glad it's not new - means I am managing to get understood!
@TheVoiceOfReason93
@TheVoiceOfReason93 Жыл бұрын
If he's not a rational nuclear actor, than we're all in serious trouble.
@AB-hq1ye
@AB-hq1ye Жыл бұрын
Nukes for everyone
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
He is a rational actor, but we need to include values in our idea of rationality.
@Bikeaddict4235
@Bikeaddict4235 Жыл бұрын
It takes more than one Psychopath to launch Nuclear weapons (thankfully)
@tilhon
@tilhon Жыл бұрын
He’s more like an irrational nuclear reactor.
@TheVoiceOfReason93
@TheVoiceOfReason93 Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler That is a good point, and certainly one area the West had seriously neglected in their calculations.
@renater.540
@renater.540 Жыл бұрын
Although not being of the faculty I am deeply impressed by your analysis. Your content should be made obligatory lecture for all Western leaders. Thank you so very very much!
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Too kind!
@saimbhat6243
@saimbhat6243 Жыл бұрын
I mean I would want my leader to state that there is no point in world existing without his people surviving in it. Shouldn't that be the core of anything called "defense policy". And I don't agree that you are a philosopher, at least I know for certainty that your analysis of ukraine war isn't philosophical but vulgar psychoanalysis of putin's "complete metaphysical worldview", to which you somehow have a direct access. I wonder what would be your psychoanalysis of minds of western leaders over the scam of iraq invasion? The way I see it, putin wants to make russia a hegemonic regional and global super power, a glory for russian nation. Well, I don't find it irrational at all. The only way to achieve it is to be successful at whatever putin is doing. And I wish that he is successful in his endeavors. A shift of some cultural/economic/military/political hegemony from west to rest of the world is the best thing for all the non-western cultures in the world. We don't want west to continue come marching into our lands in different forms, in the name of WMDs, threat to their intrests, LGBTQ+ rights, Democracy, secularism, progress and science etc. to shape us in their form. West barely constitutes 15% of worlds population but somehow has monopoly to represent human nature, values, culture and human future etc. India, china and in general the global south have had enough of being dominated by the west. Putin, russia and every country has right to seek hegemony and power over others in the same way as west had for last few centuries.
@LaurentParis430
@LaurentParis430 Жыл бұрын
Great to see that your channel has reached this magnitude! Please keep going Vlad, such great content.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you - this one may flop as I haven't uploaded for so long! Appreciate you.
@abodabalo
@abodabalo Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler 4 hours in, it is clear this did not flop at all. Ok, two of all the views and three comments are from me, for technical reasons only one like. But thousands others agree. Please don’t pressure yourself!
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
@@abodabalo thank you soooo much! It has flopped - twice fewer views than my worst performing videos of the past few months. And 5x less than best performing ones. YT telling me that regulars are choosing not to watch this one. I believe in the video of course - but it’s not going in well. I think the title is terrible! But I can’t think of anything good right now! So appreciate your support!
@JustinFisher777
@JustinFisher777 Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler I liked it. I was watching you struggle to get this out and wondered about something. What if you started just doing your chats on this channel? I can understand the original purpose of splitting channels, but I doubt that most of your viewers would mind having two different formats in one channel. Then you wouldn't have to worry about having to put up the long form videos regularly and the algorithm or whatever wouldn't punish you. Being subscribed to both channels, I know I'd prefer one update in my subscription feed. I wouldn't worry too much about this one seeming like a flop. You've built up a loyal fan base. There really is very little out there doing the quality thinking and presenting that you're doing and many of us are always ready for more.
@botondtoth8263
@botondtoth8263 Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler (Moments ago: "Oh sh*t, I forgot to like!" Now: Corrected.) I liked this video particularly. I just read somewhere, that maybe throwing the not-too-well-prepared mobilized troops to the battlefield is just buying time. However it's not time until the more experienced and equipped units arrive, but time for preparing a WMD strike. I mean, it's still much less likely than not, but an interesting (and disturbing) theory.
@jewelianwest2324
@jewelianwest2324 Жыл бұрын
Yes, one of your best. A lot of work, so much appriciated! Each video and chat is an endorphin infusion leaving me much to mull over during the day. Thank you!
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much!
@frantsel5711
@frantsel5711 Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for all your work and effort Vlad, you are wonderful!!
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much!
@charisma-hornum-fries
@charisma-hornum-fries Жыл бұрын
Hey Vlad. You're the best. Thanks for making such a complex video while fighting for your health. I never thought that I needed anyone to explain the 'why' and the 'how' and in-between, but you do a good job of making sense of such a complex situation.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much!
@bluxmitalnoda3225
@bluxmitalnoda3225 9 ай бұрын
there is 1 single rule of blackmailing. It never stops if you accept it
@AgentB7
@AgentB7 Жыл бұрын
One of the very few places where one can see philosophy, metascience, in action. Thank you, Mr. Vexler.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you! Although if I start talking about meta-sicence, it might be time for me to take a break! Maybe I can talk metaphysics on the philosophy channel!
@markmitchell457
@markmitchell457 Жыл бұрын
I really like it when Vlad sets off the lightbulb in my head by introducing an idea, or chain of thought I haven't been exposed to.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
I'm glad!
@arsletirott
@arsletirott Жыл бұрын
Another fantastic piece of thought and analysis. More people deserves to get to listen to you. I believe you're an important and sober voice in a time where we are ironically, much thanks to internet, constantly bombarded with promises of doom, victory and quick fixes where what we most of all need is to stay mentally sober while vigilant at the same time. Quite an art form to master.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you so so much!!
@sab5686
@sab5686 Жыл бұрын
well said! this guy is amazing
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
@@sab5686 thank you!!!!!!
@klubberzvonhatzenbuhl563
@klubberzvonhatzenbuhl563 Жыл бұрын
Putin has overplayed his bluffs.
@danlindy9670
@danlindy9670 Жыл бұрын
“No value-free formula will do here, and only that will allow us to see the options before Putin as he sees them, and not as he would see them if he were us.” …So clear and simple and brilliantly spoken.
@dmitripuzyrev4413
@dmitripuzyrev4413 Жыл бұрын
Hello, Vlad, thanks for the video! Regarding school escalating propaganda, do you envision it spectacularly backfiring the same way as in the late soviet union, when it was openly mocked?
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
At the moment I am sceptical about the regime being able to fascisise young people over the next 5 years. The efforts of often lame. But they will be trying harder and harder.
@dmitripuzyrev4413
@dmitripuzyrev4413 Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler yes, but in the same time, it looks like a transition from postmodern pattern to more classical, modern and aggressive propaganda, which is a completely new territory. And the point is exactly that it seems statistically (from previous examples) these methods tend to be not only ineffective, but create direct backlash. And the MORE aggressive you go, the MORE angsty backlash it takes. You can argue even the recent Mahsa Amini revolution or PRC student protests as example of in part escalating propaganda backfiring spectacularly. Besides, does this regime in this form even have 5 years? Highly doubtful
@buddyrojek9417
@buddyrojek9417 Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler Russia is losing because Ukraine has a constant stream of ammunition and weapons .The Russian government can only win this war if they use atomic weapons to destroy the main supply ports, roads , bridges. That’s rational , because if they don’t do this the war will be lost and the Russian state will fail. Putin will eventually have to use this weapon IF they want the Russian state in its CURRENT form to continue
@rudra62
@rudra62 Жыл бұрын
@@Lanedl1 Not necessarily. Russia can disconnect itself from the wider internet, at least for the public, much as China has. Yes, teens and young adults will notice this, and there ARE ways around it, much as some in China have done. And, word will get around.
@TheAngryBert
@TheAngryBert Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for this content. You and me, we are children of roughly the same decade, in the early 1980s. I grew up in West Germany with the specter of the Warsaw pact and communism looming. And despite me only being in Kindergarden-age, I have early been raised into the fear of what lurked in the east. It is not only relieving to listen to such a eloquent philosopher of Russian origin, it is also showing that the spirit of the free Russian intelligentsia is still out there. I only wish for the Russian people to some day be able to unshackle themselves from the totalitarianism that has been holding this grand nation hostage for such a long time already. Keep the content coming, I will be watching. All the best from southern Bavaria!
@aljabik
@aljabik Жыл бұрын
Vlad, thank you. You are very lucid and help crystallise thoughts that are swirling inchoate in my head. Excellent sound as well
@Samsaptaka
@Samsaptaka Жыл бұрын
I am very glad to have found your channel, Vlad. I greatly appreciate your thoughtful perspective, both here and on your chat channel. Thank you for your efforts at providing a little sanity in a chaotic world.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much for finding the channels!
@franny5295
@franny5295 Жыл бұрын
I really, really, really hope somebody that can actually do something about this secretly has a plan that they aren't telling anybody about.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
People are talking about this behind the scenes - but virtually nobody has articulated this in public. The point about values and rationality in nuclear deterrence. But of course I am not saying we are in grave nuclear danger now. We are not.
@franny5295
@franny5295 Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler 👌. Again, I appreciate your measured approach to this because it's stressing me out. I've had to kind of back away from it to have some peace.
@pommeterre5198
@pommeterre5198 Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler I think a real red line. And you can see it's a red line because nobody talk about it. Is Crimea. The regime in Russia had build a narrative about the annexation and it can't be un-build. It's to much links to the regime
@veramae4098
@veramae4098 Жыл бұрын
Twice, that I've seen reported, Soviet military officers with "the button" were warned by detection devices that nuclear missiles were "incoming". Both times they decided not to send Soviet nukes in return. They were right, the warnings were technical glitches. That comforts me a lot. Another comforting thought is that we've seen how badly Russians maintain older equipment in storage / on standby. Maybe Russian nukes, the missilses just won't operate.
@SianaGearz
@SianaGearz Жыл бұрын
@@veramae4098 And yet there's a difference between the largely orderly Soviet Union and the corrupt Russia. And also there's a difference between an automated signal which may or may not mean anything, and a signed direct order from up above, or the face of your leader speaking on government TV. So conclusions are... difficult. Perhaps if the nukes won't fire, Putin will cycle through commanders until it will. On the topic of a secret plan... we'll hear about it when it either succeeds or is thwarted by the siloviki won't we? And maybe not even then. Secret plans are best kept secret until the end. It's going to be difficult, they've got to be already suspecting everyone and everything capable of such a thing. The situation is tense.
@Jonahenotis10
@Jonahenotis10 Жыл бұрын
Great video Vlad. Worth the wait !
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you.
@pertsonvelts1699
@pertsonvelts1699 Жыл бұрын
I too feel that we are blessed to have VV as part of YT content creators. A truly unique voice. Thank you for your work, Vlad!
@adriaank75
@adriaank75 Жыл бұрын
This might be your best video so far! Very insightful 👏
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
So kind! This one is much less popular in the community, but I wanted to get this message out.
@thomsen256
@thomsen256 Жыл бұрын
Its kinda scary that he could be in poor health. Imagine a man with nothing to lose ready to start a nuclear war and take everyone with him
@claudiadriesler7285
@claudiadriesler7285 Жыл бұрын
That's also my fear...
@ivancho5854
@ivancho5854 Жыл бұрын
I was incredibly impressed by this. Thank you Vlad and I hope that you are feeling better, you certainly exude vitality in the video.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much!
@arimathean4128
@arimathean4128 Жыл бұрын
The first premise of the so-called "realist" school of thought in international affairs is that values never matter. In this video, Vexler exposes the deficiency of this premise.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Or tries to!
@hj45lp
@hj45lp Жыл бұрын
Excellent analysis again! Thank you very much for your insights! All the best from Finland! 👍😎
@susanna6826
@susanna6826 Жыл бұрын
Thank you Vlad, very interesting
@noahschafer3770
@noahschafer3770 Жыл бұрын
Thank you Vlad for this thoughtful analysis. I keep reading and watching every bit of news on the matter of russia and the ukrainian conflict, I can find - even thou it probably doesn't help my mental health. Your insight are always deeply appreciated and so is the work you put into these videos. I hope you do and continue to feel better (of course not just because I want to see more videos like this). Best wishes from Germany
@faizanrana2998
@faizanrana2998 Жыл бұрын
Vlad does not require good wishes from germany, thanks.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you so so much Noah!!!
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
@@faizanrana2998 what?
@robertopreatoni7911
@robertopreatoni7911 Жыл бұрын
@Vlad this one was worth the waiting
@solitudesf8111
@solitudesf8111 Жыл бұрын
amazing video, as always
@mcknottee
@mcknottee Жыл бұрын
Have to deal with some serious chronic health issues myself. So I appreciate the extra effort you have put into making these excellent commentaries. All the best. 🙂
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Healthful wishes to your body.
@davihar
@davihar Жыл бұрын
always a good thing to see that you've uploaded another video. Whether I agree with your position on this or that -it is important to me that I am challenged in my perspective and for that I thank you and hope your medical issues sort themselves out. Think clearly. Be well. Stay safe and carry on.
@bradcompton33
@bradcompton33 Жыл бұрын
Well done and worth waiting for.
@ebrim5013
@ebrim5013 Жыл бұрын
Fantastic video, more than worth the wait.
@Surfwr3ck3r
@Surfwr3ck3r Жыл бұрын
I would like to say that it is an honour to watch your videos. Well spoken, well explained, well-thought-out. If only.. it was less scaring what you say. Anyway - thank you. All the best from Germany!
@DusanPavlicek78
@DusanPavlicek78 Жыл бұрын
I love your videos on all your channels 🙂 You combine great knowledge and insight of Russia with a highly intellectual discussion and analysis. Perfect!
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
So glad I bring you value!
@zuggernautz
@zuggernautz Жыл бұрын
Thanks much, Vlad!
@fourthchute
@fourthchute Жыл бұрын
Excellent vid! Worth the wait -much to ponder
@sean_nel
@sean_nel Жыл бұрын
Vlad, your clarity of thought and nuanced arguments are inspiring. Regarding values, I agree this is central to many issues today. This recalls the philosophy of Jacque Fresco, who believed that values and environment shape our behaviour, and these therefore are also key to improving society. He also spoke about how one can fail to communicate with others who don't already share your values. You previously hinted at how you approach this -- e.g. not belittling other points of view and "allowing everyone on the train" towards a common goal regardless of their individual motivations. But what of people not on the train? Suppose you could speak to Putin or any of his supporters. What would you say to them? And would it even make a difference?
@coldog1000
@coldog1000 Жыл бұрын
Amazing video! Thank you Vlad
@EnriqueDeQuesada101
@EnriqueDeQuesada101 Жыл бұрын
Great Dr. Vexler!!
@stephanledford9792
@stephanledford9792 Жыл бұрын
We may see things coming to a head sooner rather than later with regards to Crimea. The Russians abandoned Kherson without much of a fight because they couldn't supply the civilians and military forces there with the needed food, fuel and weapons/supplies. The same applies to all of Crimea, only now Russia has about 3 million civilians to provide for and a larger military force to take care of logistically. I wouldn't be shocked if the Russians were not forced to abandon Crimea as well, and this may be so unacceptable to Putin that he resorts to the overt nuclear threat mentioned by Vlad in his comments. If evacuating Kherson was difficult, imagine trying to pull out millions of civilians and thousands of troops from Crimea, with only one lane open across the bridge. If Putin drew criticism for abandoning Kherson, that was only "part of Russia" from an occupation standpoint for less than a year and from an actual annexation standpoint for only a few weeks, imagine the criticism that will come from abandoning Crimea. I do agree that we cannot give in to nuclear blackmail. Once that has been done once, it will happen again and again in the future. When Putin says that "A world without Russia is unimaginable", he really means that a world without Putin is unimaginable to himself, but that is not true of all Russians, including those with some power around him. My guess is that they are already thinking about a world without Putin, especially if some of the health rumors are true, and I would be shocked if many of them were willing to die by suicide, which a full nuclear exchange would be, simply because Putin was afraid of seeing a world without him in power.
@alanchristensen5735
@alanchristensen5735 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for another deep dive into a subject of extreme significance. I'm no philosopher but I'm keenly interested in the thoughts of philosophers. It's important to realize our view of the world is not necessarily that of Putin. My mind is reeling from the exercise of adjusting to that thought.
@diddeldudellduh
@diddeldudellduh Жыл бұрын
Superb video. Thank you
@HDdeiu
@HDdeiu Жыл бұрын
Lots of love mr Vlad!
@JamesLaserpimpWalsh
@JamesLaserpimpWalsh Жыл бұрын
If he were going to use a nuclear weapon. He would have done it by now. His bluff has been called, and he has a hand full of nothing.
@christineayres7199
@christineayres7199 Жыл бұрын
Yeah especially since Khersons gone and now Crimea going too lol , the man is a thief nothing more and nothing less , we should give him no respect and we should be the ones threatening Russia with Nukes and moving our Nukes into Ukraine onto Russia's borders.
@ninemoonplanet
@ninemoonplanet Жыл бұрын
Yes, rationality needs to be comprehended from the person who we're trying to understand. I have met, tried to understand their "world view" and figure out the values they hold. It's certainly not easy when dealing with fanatics, "every means will justify the end". It's a scary trip, mentally, to follow without being disturbed. Thank you Vlad. It's scary, it's alarming, but we need to use our own imagination. 💝
@veramae4098
@veramae4098 Жыл бұрын
The "ends" do not justify the "means" for this simple reason: the means create the ends.
@WilliamViets
@WilliamViets Жыл бұрын
Great video.
@vladromanyuk6739
@vladromanyuk6739 Жыл бұрын
Awesome presentation
@gordsimpson8916
@gordsimpson8916 Жыл бұрын
Well said as always! Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 Glory to the heroes.
@garyfogel9530
@garyfogel9530 Жыл бұрын
Thank you for your valuable and ongoing insights, Vlad. You are an incredibly talented orator and have such a deep understanding if concepts that the west do not focus on enough in Geopolitical terms.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you!! Very grateful.
@EnglishAbundance
@EnglishAbundance Жыл бұрын
exciting!! just started watching it!!
@richardburgess8657
@richardburgess8657 Жыл бұрын
Excellent… as always. Thank you. 😎
@ericstromquist9458
@ericstromquist9458 Жыл бұрын
Vlad, I thank you for this video. I am a huge fan, particularly of the chat channel where I watch all of your work. I hope that any health issues that may have delayed this video have improved. My only variation on what you say is that while I completely agree we should assess Putin based on his values and not ours, we should assess him based on our best evidence of what his values actually are, not on what his outward statements, when taken at face value, imply they are. Yes, he projects a quasi-religious view of Russian destiny, and for him that view may be heartfelt to the extent that it is a possibly subconscious yet convenient justification for every act he has performed to expand and maintain his personal power, but statements like his in the video to the effect that the world shouldn’t exist if Russia was to collapse seem to me to be a calculated performance that copies three generations of the strategy of the Kim family of North Korea, where they consciously try to seem too crazy to be trifled with. Frankly, and I hate to admit this, I think I would say the same kind of things as Putin if I were in his shoes and wanted to intimidate the West, and I would probably deliver the message with the same smirk. For me, the best evidence (but not the only evidence) of Putin’s real values has been the ridiculously long tables he used for meeting his interlocutors during the pandemic, where I can see no propaganda benefit of that behavior that would advance his claim to be Russia’s savior, while he must know it looks absurd to outside observers. Thus I think the best explanation of this and other evidence about his personalllity is that Putin is a coward who definitely does not want to have himself, and perhaps also does no want to have his family, be obliterated by nuclear war. In fact, although what I am about to say will probably reflect badly on me, I think that associating Putin with suicide bombers insults the commitment to cause that actual suicide bombers have. So while I believe there is a danger of nuclear holocaust if the West either invades Russia or rains down conventional missiles on Moscow or Petersburg, there not much danger otherwise. Thus the current tragedy is that Moscow can destroy the Ukrainian power grid with impunity, leaving the people of Ukraine to freeze this winter, while it is (and I very reluctantly agree) too dangerous for the West to give Ukraine longer-range missiles that would bring down the Russian power grid tit-for-tat. In this sense I am a coward too. I look forward to your future videos.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
'we should assess him based on our best evidence of what his values actually are, not on what his outward statements, when taken at face value, imply they are' - absolutely agree 'statements like his in the video to the effect that the world shouldn’t exist if Russia was to collapse seem to me to be a calculated performance ' - absolutely agree 'Putin is a coward who definitely does not want to have himself, and perhaps also does no want to have his family, be obliterated by nuclear war. In fact, although what I am about to say will probably reflect badly on me, I think that associating Putin with suicide bombers insults the commitment to cause that actual suicide bombers have.' - yes that's reasonable some of the way, how much of the way? hugely grateful for your time and eyes and ears Eric, thank you
@ericstromquist9458
@ericstromquist9458 Жыл бұрын
@@VladVexler Good point
@lodragan
@lodragan Жыл бұрын
Thank you Vlad. Every time I listen to one of your presentations, I feel my brain expanding beyond the mundane functions of my day to day life. I'm trained as a computer scientist, and before that I was a soldier, and always someone who has tried to figure out how life and the universe works. I have learned through experience that many people look to oversimplified quantification to guide them in the automated analysis of people and complex problems. In both cases there may be things that cannot be measured that have value in relationship to the overall performance of a system/agent nonetheless, leading to poor decisions and outcomes (unintended consequences). I pray that the people making the decisions get it right, or close enough to avoid destruction beyond the current boundaries of the war.
@NATESOR
@NATESOR Жыл бұрын
insightful as always Vlad. Thanks for the video!
@242dubois
@242dubois Жыл бұрын
Wow! One of your bests! Many thanks, and keep up!
@stevemaxwell5559
@stevemaxwell5559 Жыл бұрын
I first came upon your channel in search of the very things you talk about - trying to understand Putin's values and rationale. I do think that one mistake Putin made was in the assumption that the West does count economics over values. As I always see elements of projection in people's actions, it does give me hope that economics does play a part if his own calculations. How do you assess this logic?
@DrNauseous
@DrNauseous Жыл бұрын
The west does hold economics over values... or rather, the real "values" in the west are not on the surface. These "values" are: PROFIT 📈 that must always flow into the pockets of the ultra-rich, piliticians, and mic/ds. Ultimately that is the *only* thing that is consistent and common under the vail of everything else, all the double standards, all the inconsistencies and sometimes even contradictory positions. "More money for the western (us) elites". Period. You can see how they even have no problem sacrificing economy of the entire european continent.
@ChucksSEADnDEAD
@ChucksSEADnDEAD Жыл бұрын
@@DrNauseous Funny how you went from "the West" to the US because you realized Europe is also considered Western.
@DrNauseous
@DrNauseous Жыл бұрын
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD No, simply because Europe is our "bitch". They do what our elites tell them to do. They have 0 sovereignty and self worth, and all Real decisions are made in Washington, despite what they try to make it look like on the surface. Unfortunatelly. Not because Europe isn't part of the "collective west", it is part of it, the colony part.
@stevemaxwell5559
@stevemaxwell5559 Жыл бұрын
@@DrNauseous You don't understand our society at all and think that it is similar to yours (projection again), with a powerless population and kleptocrat leaders. Not so! We kick such leaders out of power because we have real elections and the people hold real power and we DO have values.
@ChucksSEADnDEAD
@ChucksSEADnDEAD Жыл бұрын
@@DrNauseous Cope. You said West and then walked it back. If the West puts profits above everything, then Europe would put profits over the US.
@YouTubemessedupmyhandle
@YouTubemessedupmyhandle Жыл бұрын
In a sense it doesn’t matter, what’s important is that we are rational actors in the situation and that, being stronger, our rationality can be brought to bear; Don’t escalate unnecessarily Don’t concede to threats (and state their will be punishment if threats are carried out) This sets the boundaries within which he can act while minimising the potential for reckless escalation - this would have to be by Putin, and that raises the possibility he couldn’t command others to carry it out.
@ferney2936
@ferney2936 Жыл бұрын
I agree. We should be calm but resolute. We shouldn't goad him. Of course we recognise that we can't prevent him from initiating a nuclear strike but really there's no reason for him to. There is no existential threat to Russia. His is simply a limited war on the territory of another country that isn't going so well for him.
@b00ts4ndc4ts
@b00ts4ndc4ts Жыл бұрын
Nice to see you pal, hope you are doing well ✌️❤️🙏
@andreitosa4984
@andreitosa4984 Жыл бұрын
Lots of love
@archersfriend5900
@archersfriend5900 Жыл бұрын
As an American, I really don't want to think too deeply on this topic. It scares the living $%&/ out of me. Slava Ukraine.
@richard_from_england333
@richard_from_england333 Жыл бұрын
Just because you live across the pond doesn't mean that it won't come knocking on your doorstep.. Myb sooner to yours than the one closer to Russia
@archersfriend5900
@archersfriend5900 Жыл бұрын
@@richard_from_england333 I completely agree.
@richard_from_england333
@richard_from_england333 Жыл бұрын
@@archersfriend5900 We gotta admit to ourselves that this isn't some kind of war that's way out there just like Vietnam or the Middle East was and we're in the audience watching it.. No, were on the stage hiding behind the curtains
@archersfriend5900
@archersfriend5900 Жыл бұрын
@@richard_from_england333 I totally agree, send the Ukrainians everything they need, while strengthening defense.
@superman9772
@superman9772 Жыл бұрын
excellent presentation and argument... i believe you induced your audience to ponder the world outside of their box ... i think they might start to comprehend that the world is not just a vacation destiny promoted by western media and their "school" book ideals...
@Charl-Viljoen
@Charl-Viljoen Жыл бұрын
Absolutely brilliant !!!!!
@frjedi9081
@frjedi9081 Жыл бұрын
Well done. Thumbs up, both of them. Thanks Vlad.
@theconqueringram5295
@theconqueringram5295 Жыл бұрын
President Putin is a complicated man shrouded in secrecy. It's hard to figure out what's going on inside his head, so this was an interesting analysis.
@lucianoosorio5942
@lucianoosorio5942 Жыл бұрын
“You need yoga (da!), you need a shower (da!). You need to learn how to handle real power!” Mikhail Gorbachev
@maren2272
@maren2272 Жыл бұрын
Very interesting Video, thank you
@Conservator.
@Conservator. Жыл бұрын
Congratulations Vlad! You’ve made it!
@martinbeckdorf4565
@martinbeckdorf4565 Жыл бұрын
First!
@AroAceGamer
@AroAceGamer Жыл бұрын
Do I know you? You have a similar Pfp to a friend.
@martinbeckdorf4565
@martinbeckdorf4565 Жыл бұрын
@@AroAceGamer chances are yeah. 🤣
@wswordsmen
@wswordsmen Жыл бұрын
I think you are being too hard on the conventional western view of Putin being a rational actor, and more importantly think you have found the wrong flaw in it. The economic view of the question, as dictated by game theory, a concept you clearly alluded to but didn't name, allows for different players in the game, actors as you formulated it, to have different values and that the analysis can still come to correct conclusions on what the players will do. So the flaw in the conventional analysis you are highlighting isn't that "Putin has different values therefore your frame work is unworkable", but rather "your actual analysis of Putin assigns to him incorrect values and/or weights of those values, therefore you will get the wrong answer". To reiterate I don't think any of what you said is wrong, except that it occurs not on the basic level of assumptions you think it is on, rather a level above that where the West is incorrectly judging Putin's values. Another point of minor disagreement, I would argue you can get to the conclusion "Under no circumstances should we stop supporting Ukraine do to nuclear blackmail" from the only assumption of Putin's/Russia's value of "they want to win the war" using game theory. If we withdraw support due to nuclear blackmail then that means next time Putin wants to annex territory, or just do anything, the west opposes then he can push the nuclear threats to the same point that got the West to back down in Ukraine and either the West will back down again, or they will not. If they don't then by definition we are as close or closer to an actual nuclear war than we are now, since Putin created an analogous situation, so the payoff for backing down now is essentially nothing. This situation can repeat an arbitrary number of times until Putin has everything and the West nothing. Needless to say this is a bad outcome for the West. Thus to prevent the West from being slowly destroyed over fear at some point the West must stand up to nuclear blackmail. Following on from that, the sooner the West does not give in the lower the payoff for Putin will be, thus now is the time to say no to nuclear blackmail.
@wytchend
@wytchend Жыл бұрын
A fine piece Vlad, & absolutely correct summary.
@tamasgyorffy1
@tamasgyorffy1 Жыл бұрын
Thank you Vlad! For this one, again. Quite advanced, and just as useful.
@hififlipper
@hififlipper Жыл бұрын
I very much enjoy the content of your channell. Keep it rolling, Mr.Vexler!
@dmackmatt
@dmackmatt Жыл бұрын
An Awesome analysis nobody else can give but you!
@tilhon
@tilhon Жыл бұрын
Bravo! Excellent work, Vexler!
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@iwantsomecookies08
@iwantsomecookies08 Жыл бұрын
you were right, Vlad. this was your best yet
@Bradonomous
@Bradonomous Жыл бұрын
Brilliant. Simply sublime. Really excellent arguments, very much helping me think about this. I thank you sir!!!
@JP-sm1zv
@JP-sm1zv Жыл бұрын
Yaaay a new video
@triedzidono
@triedzidono Жыл бұрын
bless you Mr Vexler, you do anything but vex me superb hard-hitting video clarity+
@janetwilliams7705
@janetwilliams7705 Жыл бұрын
Excellent ! I will save and rewatch until your wise words are committed to memory. Thank you.
@holyoox1453
@holyoox1453 Жыл бұрын
Top content
@izaakgray1718
@izaakgray1718 Жыл бұрын
You're very good at this.
@CM-ey7nq
@CM-ey7nq 9 ай бұрын
Thank you Vlad.
@brianlongshore
@brianlongshore Жыл бұрын
I support your channel and love listening to your lecture. It's poem like in its subtle reasoning, whose beauty I grasp at like at a butterfly, and it slips away, never totally in possession of it, but never tire of trying to comprehend it and possess it.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you so much!!
@chrangthesufferer4418
@chrangthesufferer4418 Жыл бұрын
Thank you mister Vexler. Amazing thought-provoking work as usual.
@begr_wiedererkennungswert
@begr_wiedererkennungswert Жыл бұрын
Hi Vlad, addictive and clear as always, but also very fast. So here’s some love for your cannel, as ordered. ❤
@southend26
@southend26 Жыл бұрын
Excellent quality. Really helps me understand the war more clearly.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
I’m glad.
@rocknrollstar2798
@rocknrollstar2798 Жыл бұрын
Well said, sir. Your analysis is impeccable as always.
@VladVexler
@VladVexler Жыл бұрын
Thank you!
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