Randall Wray - Modern Monetary Theory

  Рет қаралды 7,162

Oxford Economics Society

Oxford Economics Society

3 жыл бұрын

The Oxford Economics society is delighted to host professor L. Randall Wray, professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and Senior Scholar at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College in New York.
He is a prominent proponent of Modern Monetary Theory in macroeconomics, which challenges the conventional views on monetary and fiscal policy. He is the author of an influential book “MMT: A Primer on Macroeconomics for Sovereign Monetary”, exploring macro accounting, currency regimes and exchange rates in both the USA and developing nations.
Randall Wray has published widely in edited books and academic journals, including the Journal of Economic Issues, the Cambridge Journal of Economics and the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics.
The talk will be dedicated to the monetary policy responses to the on-going pandemics from the perspective of the Modern Monetary Theory.

Пікірлер: 78
@bobbresnahan8397
@bobbresnahan8397 3 жыл бұрын
Randall Wray is my favorite MMTer -- actually my favorite economist. Top five include Stephanie Kelton and Marianna Mazzucato. I'm just a hick from the sticks who likes economics which has been the source of so much misery over the last 40 years. With Wray et al the profession finally has powerful voices for people.
@Rob-fx2dw
@Rob-fx2dw Жыл бұрын
Dream on.
@Rob-fx2dw
@Rob-fx2dw Жыл бұрын
The essence of MMt's economic argument that federal government politicians should have "Policy Space" to spend in excess of it's income for what it considers is better for the economy. The same in their minds great theory that talks about the evil of inequality but when it comes to the reality only politicians should have "Policy Space" when everyone else like the average person and those on less than average incomes should be restrained and have no "Policy Space" to spend more than it's income. Not you, not anyone else but politicians.
@leealexander3507
@leealexander3507 3 жыл бұрын
As a small child when told about wolves in the forest that would get me if I wasn't good I happily went looking for them.
@bobbresnahan8397
@bobbresnahan8397 3 жыл бұрын
Cuba is working on 3 vaccines. Their domestic resources include a corps of highly educated and capable medical professionals. On the other hand, their economy is severely constrained by U.S. sanctions. Wouldn't it be interesting to see what happens in Cuba if the U.S. lifted its heavy hand!
@thebreadtable4880
@thebreadtable4880 2 жыл бұрын
Don't forget, conservative estimates peg the loss to the Cuban economy because of the embargo at 150 billion. Cuba estimates it to be about a trillion. Their current GDP is about 100 billion, so it could have been double or ten fold it's current size had the US not strangled them.
@davidwilkie9551
@davidwilkie9551 3 жыл бұрын
Great teaching definitions. Clear and concise, thank you.
@First_Principals
@First_Principals 3 жыл бұрын
You should interview someone about Henry George land value tax.
@Eric-zl1kn
@Eric-zl1kn 3 жыл бұрын
Joseph Stiglitz has advocated for Georgist policy. While not on OES, I think it's something to look into.
@herbwiseman9084
@herbwiseman9084 Жыл бұрын
A land tax simultaneously raises asset prices and liabilities. How would that help?
@Rurik8118
@Rurik8118 Жыл бұрын
How is MMT working for the Yen ? Not inflationary ? Was it that simple ?
@Rob-fx2dw
@Rob-fx2dw Жыл бұрын
Stifled a once more rapidly growing economy and led to the lowering of the Yen's purchasing power over the last 30 years.
@michaelsamuel7365
@michaelsamuel7365 Жыл бұрын
My book "How to eradicate poverty worldwide"will bring about the necessary change for the unemployed, employed, retired to always meet the basic cost of living expenses. The recommendations will leave Government /Private sector no choice but to provide the masses with a decent,acceptable living standard.
@herbwiseman9084
@herbwiseman9084 Жыл бұрын
The sound quality by the speaker from Oxford Economics is very poor.
@lowersaxon
@lowersaxon 5 ай бұрын
What does FIAT mean? He doesnt explain. Hint: Not the Italien car producer.
@Passion5092
@Passion5092 3 жыл бұрын
Prof. Wray is great, the interviewer not so much....
@Rob-fx2dw
@Rob-fx2dw 3 жыл бұрын
There is no exclusive history of "One nation, One Currency". Some nations have given away any restriction on the currency they use because the sovereign governments often ruined their own currency and people opted to trade by payment in another nation' currency alongside their own sovereign's currency. An example of this is Argentina where the nation's currency recently has experience such levels of inflation that traders prefer the US dollar or Euro or other currencies and travelers particularly can get large discounts for paying in foreign currencies. Almost any traveler can attest to that. The One Nation one currency idea is principally for the benefit of the sovereign rulers who gain a more monopolistic control over the economy with their sovereign currency which they can and do use exclusively to manipulate to their exclusive advantage.
@Stewiehleba
@Stewiehleba 3 жыл бұрын
And how many currencies does Argentina use? 20? 100? Or is it one?
@Rob-fx2dw
@Rob-fx2dw 3 жыл бұрын
@@Stewiehleba As many more stable as you are willing to pay with than their own sovereign currency. - US dollars, Canadian Dollars, Australian Dollars, Euros, New Zealand dollars, Yen, - anything that is relatively stable and is desired more than their own because it bypasses their government's official exchange rate policy and can be used to get more bargains with than their own currency. Go see holiday guide testimonials over the last 5 years to verity it.
@edrevill
@edrevill 3 жыл бұрын
The reason why your fed need not worry about inflation whilst other central banks do (Zimbabwe, Venezuela etc) is because $us has economic hegemony which is derived from neo-colonial oil wars, regime changes and the theft and laundering of the worlds resources. Your fed can create all this currency where others can not because of your neo-colonial looting.
@RussCR5187
@RussCR5187 2 жыл бұрын
I agree that the U.S. has misbehaved as you described. But even if it hadn't done that it would still be able to create and spend as much of its own currency as it wants domestically. In doing so, it does have to keep an eye on inflation because of the possibility of full employment or bottlenecks as Prof Wray outlined in his talk.
@Kolmerification
@Kolmerification 3 жыл бұрын
utter hubris
@clarestucki5151
@clarestucki5151 3 жыл бұрын
Whether or not 'deficits matter' depends entirely on the means by which they are financed. If financed by borrowing from individuals or foreign gov'ts, the debts will constitute a burden on American taxpayers for the interest pmts, plus the debts will have to be repaid or defaulted, both of which carry serious consequences. If financed by injecting massive amounts of new money into the economy created out of thin air by the Fed Res Bank, (aka monetary inflation), thus raising the ratio of money in circulation to the economy's output of goods and services (aka GDP), there is no debt involved You are essentially levying a tax on the nation's savings, by means of reducing the value (purchasing power) of all the previously-issued money, and price inflation will be the inevitable result. The effects of monetary inflation will benefit debtors and harm creditors.
@hamilcarluxemburg5266
@hamilcarluxemburg5266 2 жыл бұрын
Did you watch the lecture?
@lowersaxon
@lowersaxon 5 ай бұрын
Absolutely wrong.
@jessicasfakeaccount
@jessicasfakeaccount 3 жыл бұрын
again, we have the wrongness of the philips curve screwing everything up again... inflation is not something that follows a mathematical formula. if there's anything we've learned, it's that we can't _create_ inflation, and we've tried our best to do it, over and over. nothing works.. inflation happens when sellers realize they can charge a higher price because buyers are willing to pay it. that isn't going to necessarily even be a function of costs, either, as prices will come down if the product stops moving due to increases resulting from costs. it's a complicated game of chicken that buyers and sellers play with each other, not some output of a function that can be graphed or predicted. the counter-example is when you're specifically dealing with rentiers, who will always extract the maximum amount that they possibly can. so, you can be pretty sure that if you give poor people money, it'll just get extracted in rent. but, just about everything else is up to chance, and you want to be modelling it like quantum rather than newtonian physics.
@jessicasfakeaccount
@jessicasfakeaccount 3 жыл бұрын
you don't want to say "if this condition holds, inflation happens". rather, you want to say something like "the probability of inflation rests on these conditions". and, you want to build probability distributions to understand it, rather than linear models.
@jessicasfakeaccount
@jessicasfakeaccount 3 жыл бұрын
even keen's models were pretty much classical, unfortunately. and, this insight might be unsatisfying, but it's necessary - and you kids should clue into it now. this world isn't causal; you have to understand it using the mathematics of chance, not the mathematics of certainty.
@jessicasfakeaccount
@jessicasfakeaccount 3 жыл бұрын
that said, wray's conclusions will still largely stand, if you produce a proper probabilistic model of inflation - in fact, they'll stand way better than any causal model will because it will pull the rug out from under them. the right interpretation is that inflation from producing money is neither certain nor impossible but _unlikely_ - but, it means you always have to understand that there's some chance that the whole thing caves in, that sellers win a series of games and send everything tumbling via some out of control asymptote, and then you're in the weimar republic.
@jessicasfakeaccount
@jessicasfakeaccount 3 жыл бұрын
fwiw, there's a good argument that the weimar republic happened because the bankers in england and france wanted it to happen, and not due to some positivist rule of economics - that germany lost that game of chicken, and that maybe they never really had much of a chance of winning it.
@derekmcdaniel6029
@derekmcdaniel6029 3 жыл бұрын
@@jessicasfakeaccount well, I agree a lot "inflation is not something that follows a mathematical formula". Pricing anything is hard, be a stock, commodity, service, etc. But a currency, which has no intrinsic value, and indeed serves as the unit of account for everything else, pricing that is really hard. The way I see it, anything can affect inflation, anyone, to a degree. It's like the ocean, there are waves coming from everywhere, caused by winds, tidal forces, seismic shifts of the earth crust, even the wakes of boats. But it is precisely when one effect is dominant, that you have to worry about. Going back to the wave analogy, if a tsunami is caused by an earthquake, you have to be able to trace that, and then you can actually model that. But most of the random ebbs and flows, you can't really account for. The phillips curve, the way I see it, is just a degenerate economic condition in which wages and the price level become a battleground for class conflict. Even when it might be shown to be accurate, a tradeoff between unemployment and prices rising, is inherently a pathological economic condition. It makes no sense to base a normal health regime, on some pathological condition. The inability to see this kind of nuance, past the raw statistical correlations, is what is wrong with the economics profession. It's full of simplistic models and correlations. Even in the cases where simple models are both accurate and effective, which can happen when other more complicated mechanics are cancelled out with each other or simple noise, the justifications given for using the models are poor, and rarely do they admit as much, namely that simple models require very specific conditions to exist, for them to be a good respresentation of the dynamics of a complex system like the economy. I agree with you, i believe, in that I don't find Keen's models very satisfactory either, at least not as a comprehensive representation of the economy. It's more of a demonstration of how some dynamics could play out under specific conditions, than it is a truly representative model of the economy. Because it's not really a fitted model, but just a "demonstrative" model, the idea of using fitted statistical regressions, doesn't feel very important, because there is just going to be an inherent mismatch between the model and reality. Modelling the natural world is just intractable, this is a known thing from mathematics, dynamical systems, computation theory, chaos theory, etc. While certain mathematical principles, like ergodicity(which I don't fully understand to be honest), appear to be promising tools, it's just one limited part of the picture. But overall, good comments here.
@Rob-fx2dw
@Rob-fx2dw 2 жыл бұрын
Interesting that Randall Wray presents a quote from economist Paul Samuelson - the same economist who predicted (wrongly) in 1961 that the soviet economy would overtake the economy of the US by 1984 because it was a planned economy. he then pushed back his prediction to 1987 and then further. His prediction "The Soviet economy is proof that, contrary to what many skeptics had earlier believed, a socialist command economy can function and even thrive" He got that drastically wrong as he did many matters of his economic theory which proved a total failure. Just like Randall Wray who continues to push a failed theory.
@thelongdarkteatimeofthesou4497
@thelongdarkteatimeofthesou4497 3 жыл бұрын
This man has persuaded himself into lunacy, and is working hard to persuade others. MMT has some good points, but bro, you're totally out to lunch when you think there is no such thing as deficit spending. Lmfao who could believe this?
@benharris3285
@benharris3285 3 жыл бұрын
Who said there was no such thing as deficit spending? I don't think you understand MMT. MMT says that deficit spending isn't a problem (so long as it doesn't cause inflation) not that it doesn't exist.
@thelongdarkteatimeofthesou4497
@thelongdarkteatimeofthesou4497 3 жыл бұрын
@@benharris3285 'who said?' If you watch the video, Randall Wray does.
@benharris3285
@benharris3285 3 жыл бұрын
@@thelongdarkteatimeofthesou4497 Time stamp? As I said, deficit spending is obviously real but it isn't a problem, subject to inflation constraints. Do you want to argue with that?
@thelongdarkteatimeofthesou4497
@thelongdarkteatimeofthesou4497 3 жыл бұрын
Nope. Time stamp... why? Just watch from end to end like I did. If the guy is trying to sell MMT, he's not doing a very good job. Maybe his views are inflated.
@benharris3285
@benharris3285 3 жыл бұрын
​@@thelongdarkteatimeofthesou4497 I watched the whole thing. I was asking you for a time stamp where he says that deficit spending doesn't exist. It does. It isn't a problem. What's your issue?
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