Hey y’all! I think it’s pretty clear, but the idea here is to do the same calculations I did at whatever YOUR gas price is. So replace my $3 with the average cost of fuel where you are and you’ll be able to figure out the break even in your market. And remember the cost of gas fluctuates with the price of a barrel of oil. It increases but it also decreases. We’ve seen $5/gallon gas prices here that have since come back down to $2.25.

Josh, I totally agree with your assessment. What pushes the the buyer even farther from the Prime is the fact that you can get a much better deal off MSRP in the regular hybrid due to its much higher availability.

Spot on video!!! I bought my first Prime around the same time you did. Got it for around the same price you did ($31K or so). Sadly, that car got totaled in an accident but the insurance value was way more than I paid so it made it possible to buy a 2023 and so I did pay the higher price but it was offset by that insurance check. I also got the $6,500 lease cash and immediately bought the car out in cash so didn’t pay the interest associated with a lease like you mention in the footnote at the beginning of the video. By my calculation the interest paid over the lease term and the lease buyout fee actually cancels out almost the entire $6,500. Totally agree I LOVE MY PRIME but would not spend the current prices on them. $50K for an SE? Girl bye.

Great insight and detail as always Josh! You’re the BEST! 🥇

Excellent presentation. Great video!

Josh, this a very good video .In Canada the wait time at our dealer is two years for a Prime. We will stick with our RAV4 Hybrid. 🇨🇦👍👍

You are simply the best ! Thank you so much for your help figuring out the real world issue of buying a hybrid suv.

Excellent presentation and delivery. Makes a whole lot of sense. Plus, although, it is nickels and dimes, you will earn a little interest on that money in the bank. And, at the end of 10 yrs, if your battery fails, it will be much cheaper to replace the hybrid battery. Great channel!!!!

Thank you! The video I was exactly looking for.

Love your videos. Also this video came at the perfect time! Regret not getting this car when it was much cheaper 😩

Great video. I love the idea of a RAV4 Prime.

Right on Josh! Good arithmetic that all RAV4 hybrid owners need to see

Great video. Makes soooo m😮ch sense! Thank you

This is brilliant

hi Josh - great video as usual. I agree the regular RAV4 hybrid is the better choice for most people. Having said that, the elephant in the room not accounted for or acknowledged in your analysis is the different trade in / resale values for each. It is reasonable to assume the prime model will have a higher resale value, all other things being equal.

Great video! Love the idea of a $10,000 gas card. Makes sense. :)

Excellent analysis and great way to put the savings in context. I have seen very high dealers premiums on the Primes. They were taking high bids at one point. Toyota needs to address supply-demand through a more fair ordering system. Ford had to crack down on dealers with the Lightning and Raptor pickups at one point. I think E demand has waned since.

Great comparison.

This is helpful, and aligns with what I found in my car shopping spreadsheet. For our use case, the PHEV would cost us 59.2k to buy and operate for 10 years. The HEV would cost 50.5k. (For the insatiably curious, that figure is 35.3k for our 2023 Bolt EV and 59.7k for our 2016 CX-5.)

I think that it's not just Gas savings, the prime has much better acceleration etc also. The power upgrade is the biggest reason to pay more imho. Not that I can comprehend spending $50K on a small, non luxury suv!

Love this in depth analysis. Also can’t get enough of you providing your take on the numbers and what this means in the real world. You should take the same approach for hybrid vs nonbybrid vehicle. Should buy a hybrid?

Bang on, Josh! Thanks for crunching the numbers. Nearly $50,000 for a loaded RAV4? Nope. On another note, I'm starting to see more folks talking about turning their backs on Toyota trucks due to the outrageous prices for Tacomas and Tundras. Believe it or not, Nissan is slowly becoming a go-to for that kind of purchase. Toyota is losing its way and it hurts me to say that. Thanks again for posting this info.

Exactly. I did buy a 2021 Venza Hybrid as it was the only car on the lot. As an ultra low mileage diver, it made no sense. I saved $ 300 a year, based on Costco average price of $ 3.00 a gallon. However my state charges an extra $ 75 plate renewal fee for hybrid owners. That reduced my yearly savings to $ 225. I just traded it on a 2024 Highlander gas turbo. Half the mpg but with significant discounts on new gas models. I did the math. Between the lower price on the gas models, and the $ 4,000 discount on the gas model, it would take me 20 years to break even with the hybrid gas savings. I do miss the no stop start feature on the hybrid. Fortunately, the Highlander has a convenient shut off next to the steering wheel. I tap it on every start. Fast forward 10 years. Resale vale. Would you rather buy a 10 year hybrid with a 10 year old battery, or a 10 year old gas model.

love the analysis video, sub'd. For me the charging/gas was a byproduct, was predominantly wanting that 0-60 in 5.5 lol, stealth sleeper car. Everyon expects a model Y to be fast, no one expects a rav4 to pummel their sports car. But yea, doesn't make financial sense to buy it over a hybrid, unless ur want that 'stealth' performance

Love you and all your vids! Thank you for doing the math for us!

Ok... Let fix this coffee and enjoy .... Bruh you ended the video so fast when I was getting ready to seat and sip...oh well let me replay 😊

I didn’t realize the prime back in 2021 was much cheaper. I just came back from your other video, breaking down how you basically paid only $32,000 out the door for your current 2021 model. I was looking at the 2024 prime as a next car, but realized that I would be overpaying by ALOT. The things is, I really like how the drive of the car is smoother and quieter than the hybrid, but at that price point I’m not entirely sure that it’s worth paying the $14,000 extra premium over.. versus when you got it for $32,000. If it were still that price I’d definitely get it in a heartbeat. It’s a shame Toyota raised the price so much 😢. Hopefully the new model that comes out will have a better discount hehe. Also the primes are all made in Japan, another reason I wanted to buy it. I currently have an 2005 rav4 made in Japan and still works great! I just wish the prime were $32,000(with the incentives) still 😢. You picked it up at a great time (: - also the analogy on the $10,000 could go a step further by putting it into a HYSA and locked in at 5% per year, by the tenth year you’d have more than $5000+ accrued 😮

I was just thinking about this a few days ago...

Wow doing the math on a 6 year loan - 6 years interest is $2637 so now it cost 13123 for that 10,485.91 loan so that is 182.27 extra per month on a 6 year loan- great video so thanks for the thoughts on this. Toyota loan is 7.69 now in Canada. This is on the SE models. Yes I know Toyota has been doing these for a while now but we really are in the beginning stages so can only see pricing changing in the future. It is sad in fact because to protect the world from destruction cost so much from these developers to change over. About 8000 difference to say with gas on LE so now that is like a 18000 difference for LE gas to SE prime. No SE for gas models.

Thanks 🙏🏻 I’m getting the venza

km in Canada Rav 4 Hybrid per 100km 5.8/6.3/6.0 where as Rav 4 prime says 5.7/6.4/6.0- I don't get the value with SE models of price difference- $10,485.91 Fuel is now 1.58 per liters or just over 7 dollars for Canadian gallon. Also think about battery life. We will all be leasing one day because of because of battery tech . Loans now or just over 7 percent. Thanks for video

Thank you for all the work you've put into this comparison . You are absolutly correct that PHEV is not worth buying unless you intent to keep it for ever, but then the time to replace that big battery will eventually get there and probably will erase all the savings you achieved. Unless battrey costs come down it's not worth a PHEV or pure electric.

And folks .... please ... Just because its a plug Rav4 doesn't mean that it's a electric vehicle so avoid to drive just on EV mode This car is not a Tesla, at end of the day it's a Hybrid plug in gas Rav4...

its even a greater difference when insurance and taxes (purchase and property) is so much more for the prime

I'm just starting to look for a car and my mind is blown by the numbers I'm seeing. Luckily the loan/lease rates have dropped substantially since last fall. We were seeing 8.5% last fall and now I'm seeing 2-5%. I'm in Canada. I did look at the Prime but the wait time was crazy and I couldn't figure out how anybody could make sense of that payback. It will be interesting to see how they price the Crown Signia. That might be the one to go for. I also looked at the NX but to get a sunroof you have to buy a huge package. Up here on the PHEV it's 17.5k dollar package. On the hybrid it's 5-8.5k. LOL

What about considering the incentives of state rebates for electric cars?

I’m assuming this is without the $6500 USA LEASE rebate which, granted only makes sense if you can immediately buy it out. If so the 10k diff is about 5-6 years of gas in the hybrid based on California gas prices ($5/gal)

Hey Josh, awesome video as usual My dealer currently has a prime. They haven’t been able to sell at $53K. The Lexus dealer has a NX 450+ that is used with 400 miles listed for 63K. I definitely agree with your gas savings calculations however I’m wondering if these plug-in hybrids hold their value and depreciate even less than the hybrids what are your thoughts? PS .. I had FOMO… lol 😅 23 Macan GTS for now ❤ love it. Will return to Lexus/ Toyota when finished playing around 😜🫣

You could get a lot of beer for 10k and wouldn’t need to leave the house

I would put $10000 into S&P500. At 10% return a year, give you $10000 of free gas + $6000 extra + take back your principle $10000. And I like to buy 5 years old car. and save even more.

I’ll either look for a pre-owned Prime or RX450H with service records from private seller for less 👍

Would you get a 2025 NX 450h+ (for $60k thanks to rebate incentives) or a 2022 RX 450h (for $50k)? The cost difference is not a big issue for me cause I plan to keep it for many years.

It seems that this calculation assumes 100% ev driving, when reality would be a little different. Realistically, perhaps 75% of trips are short distance (30-40 mi round trips), so the prime realizes return on that extra $10k acquisition cost at that 3/4 rate. In other words, 3k of of the 12k annual miles would require purchase of gasoline, making the energy cost savings in favor of the prime roughly $700/yr ($774 @ $3/gal, less some for ev charging) or a 14-year breakeven point. In CA where I live, breakeven for my 2020 hybrid XSE would be closer to 10 years ($4.65/gal. with avg 40mpg).

Gas in cal is at least 5 to 5.50.so its 200 gals of gas for that state. I would save $160 a month . Would be 5 years or less to break even .

If you like the extra power of the prime and can get it at a lower price- maybe over 5k over the regular hybrid- then get the prime. The extra power and convenience of having that big battery is worth it… just not worth 10k in my opinion.

Your analysis of fuel costs assumes gasoline prices of $3/gal. In 2024, gasoline is $4/gal. In 2025, gasoline could cost $5/gal. I think that affects your predicted miles.

I still dont unserstand why EV vehicles are mlre expensive consider that EV motors are less complex than an ICE.

Don't forget to add in the extra sales tax on the price difference. In my state, 9.2% is typical (by the time every county, city, etc tacks on to the State). What I've been trying to figure out is whether the comparable trim levels (SE vs SE Prime), or XSE vs XSE PRIME, have different levels of equipment. (Does the Prime SE come with a few more features than the Hybrid SE?) The Toyota web site allows you to "compare cars", but not within their own brand. I can't seem to pull up and compare like I can compare trim levels within the hybrid line. (Prime RAV 4 is a different group.) I know the Prime adds some sound insulation to the windshield and front side windows, but is there anything else? With the rebates gone for BUYING a PHEV, there is still something going on for those who lease (local dealers sites show 6500). Someone alluded to some chicanery by which you could initially lease and get the rebate, then convert to a purchase. That may or may not be an actual thing. But yeah, payback on gas alone is way off in the distance. Gas is a lot more expensive where I live, but doing your calcs show I'd be able to drive 90K miles "free" by skipping the Prime, and that does not include interest earned (easy to get a 5% MM or CD these days). Not sure what Toyota is thinking. Plus there is a mpg penalty for the Prime with the extra weight of battery, so once not on pure electric, you're taking a bit of a hit there too. (I know EPA numbers are similar, but Consumer Reports says 34 combined in the real world on the Prime. But they do gush about the Prime.) The extra quiet and 5.5 0-60 is enticing, but I just don't see how they can get 10K more for the plug-in. I watched a video on the 2025 and 2026 (lots of speculation) trying to see if the Gen 5 hybrid system (see the '25 Camry) is going to be in the '25 RAV4, and it was not known. They were suggesting that full re-do would be a '26 model and the new Prime MIGHT have 100 mile range in pure EV mode. Meanwhile, prices for all of them are bloated and it feels like the selection of '24s is dwindling to the colors I won't buy. Another angle on the decision is to just look at how much you currently spend on gas each year. If electricity was free, and you never had to use significant gas (say just to keep the tank somewhat fresh you burn 4 tanks a year), THAT would be your MAX savings. But you know electricity isn't free (it's relatively cheap where I live). And you are somewhat rolling the dice on future energy prices. At $ 4.50 a gallon, payback is quicker than your $ 3.00 example. Insurance might be a factor too, and some states hit you with a surcharge at licensing for a hybrid or PHEV to help compensate for the fact that you are buying less gas, and paying less in gas taxes used for roads. You bought yours at the right time. But yeah, I just saw a review and they were gushing about their $ 52K XSE Prime (before Sales Tax, licensing, etc.) You can probably get an entry level BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Lexus, or Acura for that.

I guess I don't understand the point of the math. Don't most people buy a Prime because they feel they can greatly limit their CO2 emissions as most of their driving will be electric? It's an environment purchase for them, not because it's necessarily a better vehicle. They are willing to pay a little more for that reason.

For $50k you could easily buy a new Lexus hybrid.

I have a Toyota Venza hybrid with the same power train as the Toyota RAV4 and I only fuel up with Premium because I know for a fact 6 years from now I won’t get a Check engine lights because my catalytic converter won’t go bad I rather spend my money on premium then have to change a CAT in the future!!!

Completely agree with your conclusions but you missed one major factor: resale value. Purchase price is not the cost of ownership. If the Prime had significantly better resale value than the hybrid, the delta between the two in actual cost of ownership could be much smaller. For example if you keep each car 5 years and the Prime depreciates $5k and the hybrid depreciates $15k, the actual cost of ownership between the two would be the same. I don't know what the actual depreciation difference is but it's more important actually than the purchase price in this comparison.

Excellent work with your analysis between RAV4 Hybrid and Prime. The prime sure is nice, but it’s way too expensive. That’s why my aunt chose the RAV4 hybrid instead of the RAV4 Prime since the fuel economy is still very good (though if the tax credit applied like before, we would have pick that option like you did with your prime). Recently, I checked at Toyota Marin (North of San Francisco) through their smartpath website and dealer’s website, and I was shocked that every RAV4 Prime gets a little over $2000 off of MSRP though it still is expensive. I was shocked because it still is really popular in my area. Btw, not related to this videos, what are your thoughts about the upcoming 4Runner debuting on April 9th? Also, what do you think about the facelift version of the 2025 Honda Civic Honda has teased?