Inflationary Pressures on the Dollar and the Euro to Come (w/ Brent Johnson and Russell Napier)

Рет қаралды 120,920

3 жыл бұрын

For the past decade, Russell Napier has correctly called for disinflation, dissenting with the conventional wisdom that inflation is on horizon. Yet he has changed his mind, and in this conversation with Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, Napier explains why he believes the inflationary tides, so long delayed, may soon arrive on the shores of currencies such as the dollar and the euro. Napier argues that fiscal authorities are, via macroprudential regulation, essentially compelling commercial banks to lend and are also requiring them to hold unattractive assets such as negative yielding debt. This new force, Napier continues, will succeed where quantitative easing (QE) has failed in expanding commercial bank balance sheets. Johnson and Napier analyze how this new potential regime will impact affect pensioners, students, and savers as well as how it will shape the destiny of every asset class ranging from equities to Treasurys, from European bank debt to currencies, and from mortgage-backed securities to fine art. Filmed on November 11, 2020. For more charts, click here: rvtv.io/3lsOdZw and rvtv.io/36BS7cC. Key learnings: Rapid growth of the money supply coupled with low inventories could push the U.S. into a reflationary whirlwind. Napier has an inflation target of 4% for the OECD because he believes macroprudential regulation will compel large financial institutions to lend and hold dubious assets to an unprecedented degree. This view is not necessarily bearish for the dollar, nor for emerging market (EM) currencies, which might prove more resilient than many anticipate. But, it does spell trouble for the Euro, which is already in a bad way.
Thanks for watching The Interview, the premier business and finance interview series in the world.
Subscribe to our channel now for more videos like this one: rvtv.io/subscribe
Do you want even more content like this? And to see this video before we release it here? Become a member of Real Vision -- get started for 7 days for only $1: rvtv.io/membership
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is where you can gain an understanding of the complex world of finance, business and the global economy with real in-depth analysis from real experts.
Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
Twitter: rvtv.io/twitter
Instagram: rvtv.io/instagram
Facebook: rvtv.io/facebook
Linkedin: rvtv.io/linkedin
Inflationary Pressures on the Dollar and the Euro to Come (w/ Brent Johnson and Russell Napier)
/ realvisiontelevision
For the transcript visit: rvtv.io/TheInterview
Disclaimer:
This is pretty obvious, but we should probably say it anyway so that there is absolutely no confusion…The material in REAL VISION GROUP video programs and publications {collectively referred to as “RV RELEASES”} is provided for informational purposes only and is NOT investment advice. The information in RV RELEASES has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Real Vision and its contributors, distributors and/or publisher, licensors, and their respective employees, contractors , agents, suppliers and vendors { collectively, “Affiliated Parties”} make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the content in RV RELEASES. Any data included in RV RELEASES are illustrative only and not for investment purposes. Any opinion or recommendation expressed in RV RELEASES is subject to change without notice. RV Releases do not recommend, explicitly nor implicitly, nor suggest or recommend any investment strategy. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties disclaim all liability for any loss that may arise (whether direct indirect, consequential, incidental, punitive or otherwise) from any use of the information in RV RELEASES. Real Vision Group and its Affiliated Parties do not have regard to any individual’s, group of individuals’ or entity’s specific investment objectives, financial situation or circumstance. RV RELEASES do not express any opinion on the future value of any security, currency or other investment instrument. You should seek expert financial and other advice regarding the appropriateness of the material discussed or recommended in RV RELEASES and should note that investment values may fall, you may receive less back than originally invested and past performances is not necessarily reflective of future performances. Well that was pretty intense! We hope you got all of that - now stop reading the small print and go and enjoy Real Vision.

Пікірлер: 406

@patrickdoyle2510 3 жыл бұрын

"A central banker is a person who would permit inflation in anything except wages." Savage.

@Mark1959Holladay 3 жыл бұрын

Patrick, am sixty two and haven't met a banker let a lone a cenral banker that wouldn't sell his mother for a buck. Now with the FED lifting the reserve rates they are counterfeiting outright. We other than Christ are on our own and I am stacking Gold and Silver. Blessings to you

@likuidmethod 3 жыл бұрын

On point

@coleb9410 3 жыл бұрын

@@Mark1959Holladay You need to be in equities as well.

@pascalxus 3 жыл бұрын

The ramifications of what they're saying is so far beyond what the title implies. And to hear them talk about it without any hyperbole. This is absolutely incredible! Cap day is coming!

@barbaraherda9212 3 жыл бұрын

42:45 Great discussion so far. I just can’t agree that this is capitalism, as bailouts and bail ins are NOT capitalism. Even if you say it has a Chinese twist to it. In real capitalism, those companies would’ve gone under and been replaced by better run ones, or they’d claim bankruptcy and restructured to be better run.

@markmanzo2488 3 жыл бұрын

The way our system is set up we have to bail out the banks or everything would collapse.

@zubstep 3 жыл бұрын

@@markmanzo2488 Anything avoiding that short-term collapse causes a misallocation of capital. The bigger that misallocation is, the more potential growth is destroyed. This is essentially the Austrian view in short.

@BasedHawaiian 3 жыл бұрын

There is quite a difference between a market economy and a command economy. If you researched and understand the differences, you would not disagree.

@elonmuskox4305 3 жыл бұрын

Great interview. I would have liked to hear Russell's opinion on precious metals and bitcoin.

@jdrever8 3 жыл бұрын

He spoke briefly in another interview about btc. Quickly dismissed the topic as he doesn’t know enough and would rather leave it to people that know more.

@vm6971 3 жыл бұрын

@@jdrever8 nobody knows about Bitcoin. If you invested in BTC you praise it. If not you talk it down. If you swing trade it like me you absolutely neutral towards it.

@tensevo 3 жыл бұрын

He spent most of the interview talking about inflation going up. That is bullish for all physical and scarce assets.

@sparksj20 3 жыл бұрын

Andreas antopopulous knows bitcoin. If you havent heard of him, look him up. He has a few very technical talks.

@libertyovertyranny3991 3 жыл бұрын

He knows Bitcoin is nonsense

@retro8919 3 жыл бұрын

“They create a lot more money but not more debt” explain that one champ

@Doors_of_janua 3 жыл бұрын

ok, let's say I owe you. 1000 dollars. Let's say it equals a nice bike. I owe you a bike. let's say the dollar devalues. I still owe you 1000, right? ... well that is half a bike now. I owe you half a bike... So did we create more debt??? ... no we just changed the numbers.

@uzah88 3 жыл бұрын

@@Doors_of_janua thanks for the explanation. From your example did we actually decrease the debt? Wouldn’t it be easier to pay off ‘half a bike’. Or does that have to assume wages must also go up in money.

@JC-XL 3 жыл бұрын

Let's now think about who's making that bike - China. So now China is making bikes that cost twice more dollars for example, but the two clowns in the interview keep insisting that China will go down first, go figure ...

@KyleDunnIt 3 жыл бұрын

@@Doors_of_janua The issue with this explanation is it contradicts what he said just before claiming there was "more money but not more debt" - he says there was ~10 years of _deflation_ after QE/low rates, not _inflation_. Complete nonsense and the interview only just started.

@filipemoreira5193 3 жыл бұрын

Except his is mistaking the order in which all this happens. I live in Brazil and the Government is already kind of doing Cap Day/Financial repression (but not in the sense they weren't able to create inflation before, but the exact opposite, they trying to force banks to buy their bonds and keep rising Household debts without rising interest rates so Debt to GDP don't lead to something like Greece Crisis), and we haven't seen the dollar spike yet and they have already started "smooth" capital control, imaging when the reserve currency comes to collect dollar denominated debts arround the world. So the order is: first junk government bonds goes bust (and there are many gvnmt bonds in the line before dev. Markets ), than you would have Cap Day there, than capital flights to developed markets (that's when the the Dollar milkshake theory reinflates Nasdaq hyperbubble etcetera... But I think there will be a crash first because the velocity of defaults are greater than velocity of money creation/lending rate in post-Corona enviroment) and than the exploding financial market brings back consumption confidence... Which leads to growth and inflation in the US that will have to struggle with higher interest rates and eventually will have to cap it.

@konradzawadzki2616 3 жыл бұрын

This guy should debate Steven Van Metre!

@konradzawadzki2616 3 жыл бұрын

@Stuart Hawkins I just found out Steven even made a video about his interview on real vision. Just shortly describing the thesis without any rebutal. He only mentioned the fact that in his opinion for the government to guarantee bank loans on a large scele there needs to be a deflationary shock first. I still dont know what to think about it

@konradzawadzki2616 3 жыл бұрын

@Stuart Hawkins yes, that is my guess as well. They are probably taking different time frames into account. But timing is essential in this game

@migueis007 3 жыл бұрын

@@konradzawadzki2616 but i dont think central banks would allowed high inflation becouse peoples debt would be paid would worthless dollars

@matthewlee112 3 жыл бұрын

@@migueis007 the point is central bankers wouldn’t have the option to deny inflation because the bankers will be at the mercy of the government

@migueis007 3 жыл бұрын

@@matthewlee112 governments are at the mercy of the banks. But even if you are right. There is no big inflation. The monetary supply is contracting not expanding.

@justinb8602 3 жыл бұрын

Fascinating discussion! Thank you Brent for great questions and thank you Russell for well thought out and to the point answers. I am saving this to come back and watch again

@ratfacekick 3 жыл бұрын

Russel Napier vs Jeff Snider title fight at the garden. Get it done Raoul

@emperorsnewclothes2429 3 жыл бұрын

What about the 50, 80, 100 or million people worldwide who have lost their jobs, businesses or lost wages.

@retro8919 3 жыл бұрын

Apparently they don’t matter and their lack of income (and demand) won’t put downward pressure on prices. I mean he literally said boats, art, and classic cars are going up in value, I have no idea why that matters when talking about CPI inflation

@michaeldooley5845 3 жыл бұрын

I am very much a new comer to economics aged 49! Real Vision et al and great interviews like this are an overdue education. Thanks

@theciakilledjfk5973 3 жыл бұрын

Encouraging to hear. Most people just want their opinions validated. It takes a lot more work to challenge yourself.

@dollymartin7498 3 жыл бұрын

Me too!

@cryptoskywalker1714 3 жыл бұрын

They don't want us to understand Economics. They wouldn't have any worker bees.

@cryptoskywalker1714 3 жыл бұрын

Actually, everybody doesn't have a bank account. Not even in the United States. It's actually shocking how many people don't have a bank account. It probably explains a lot of the civil unrest.

@johnl.7754 3 жыл бұрын

@@cryptoskywalker1714 with today’s almost zero interest rates I actually feel sorry for those with a lot of cash in bank accounts (like my parents) :-)

@regbar0 3 жыл бұрын

I don't know about this one, Chief.

@pruff3 3 жыл бұрын

Endgame interview, now this, great interview Brent, Russell is a treasure despite his weird love of bear anatomy.

@toddwegner3680 3 жыл бұрын

Jeff Snider and Steven Van Meter might disagree with this.

@sivi9741 3 жыл бұрын

What part ?

@robertpaulson6388 3 жыл бұрын

@@sivi9741 All of it - Van Metre says we are in for deflation because people don't have money. He's a bond guy.

@sivi9741 3 жыл бұрын

@@robertpaulson6388 Well he said he just change his mind for next year for Inflation . And it make a lot of sense , government will create money with fiscal stimulus since bank won’t lend . And when ton »free » money hit Main Street , inflation will spike up . Always easier to have inflation after deflation for a long time . Look at commodities prices, all time low .

@anistar002 3 жыл бұрын

I am in the inflation camp(Gold) , but I really love Steven weekly shows, and in that he shows the real time data, how the deflation is working in real time. Disputing him requires data and I am yet to see from the inflation camp what data they are following. I am still learning folks.

@julisx1766 3 жыл бұрын

Thats because they hate money :)

@gregwelch5994 3 жыл бұрын

the 4% inflation is to work off the debt and transfer wealth from old to young?? Huh? It's increasing the wealth gap dramatically and will continue to do so. Inflation is already much higher than 4%. More like 10% if you use the 1980 cpi basket due to things like healthcare, housing....and the adjustments downwards b/c your computer has even more CPUs...which really makes life easier. The working class in competition w ROW for wages. The reason it is so difficult to get by for so many is the artificial markets/professions (with moats for no reason other than to prevent competition)....and QE/pushing up asset/home prices for the 'top' 10% those own assets. How can you present this strategy without pointing out the flaws...and a real soln?

@simonb7048 3 жыл бұрын

I think the difference, they mention several times, (for example compared with '08) is that cash is being funneled into bank accounts directly. Helicopter money essentially. This is quite different because it means that there is less bifurcation between SMEs and large multinationals when there is ensuing inflation. The video is just a hypothesis and isn't meant to be scripture. Russell openly admits he could be wrong.

@BasedHawaiian 3 жыл бұрын

All he is saying, if you are asking him the mechanics within the constraints of using current CPI, then this is what we can expect.

@spitcock 3 жыл бұрын

Hey Brent we're at an 89 handle to this point...How's that Milkshake tasting? Looks like Schiff gets the gold again.

@themoneyfork319 3 жыл бұрын

Have some class! lol. At least he’s entertaining a change of mind, which is almost more admirable that being right to begin with.

@williamardell5077 3 жыл бұрын

Perer Schiff hasn't been 100% correct either, but his conviction in real noney vs fraud is far far more admirable than being correct all the time as well 😁

@LAWSON08 3 жыл бұрын

I poked him on twitter about this awhile ago. He was pretty salty about it, LOL. The sad part is he's actually kind of right, but he's failing to anticipate the .gov policy response.

@mrenovatio3739 3 жыл бұрын

@@LAWSON08 the government policy game theory is the most difficult part, imo

@dougharris4853 3 жыл бұрын

An excellent interview with Russel. Magic insights. It would have been nice to hear his views on the effects these changes might have on property prices in Britain where he comes from.

@parkd1 3 жыл бұрын

Wow, and I mean wow, that was a discussion worth listening to, and then listening to again... nice work Brent and most of all thank for sharing your work Russell.. the depth of your insight requires deep concentration and revisit... best regards to you both..

@kanaljenskanal 3 жыл бұрын

Its going to be very interesting to see these ideas mature during 2021 and beyond . Will we have broad inflation and a real increase i blue collar wages or maybe start 2021 with a real crisis for the average joe before the inflation takes off.

@nicholasstabile445 3 жыл бұрын

There’s going to be an insane amount of infrastructure spending for electric vehicles and Green energy. This will of course create an increase in blue collar wages. Still doesn’t solve the moral hazard issue or the debt issue. If you ask me the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place...

@darylfoster7944 3 жыл бұрын

@@nicholasstabile445 not if the Republicans keep control of the Senate.

@nicholasstabile445 3 жыл бұрын

@@darylfoster7944 and if they do? What happens?

@ajkfa1 3 жыл бұрын

If Republicans keep control you will see gridlock with Republicans focusing on the deficit/debt levels. If it tanks economy it won’t matter cuz it’ll be made to be Biden’s fault. This has all happened before.

@nicholasstabile445 3 жыл бұрын

@@ajkfa1 thats certainly a possibility....however even Trump is screaming for more stimulus. There’s tremendous pressure for a spending package. If they don’t pass one, you’re looking at the greatest depression in history. Talking starvation. Even republicans will be on the hook for passing it in the senate.

@Cromius771 3 жыл бұрын

That mortgage change in the UK will cause house prices there to absolutely sky rocket. Same scheme in Canada and Australia with government insured mortgages. Banks have no risk to lend and credit is extended regardless of risk.

@catcar9157 3 жыл бұрын

But no one has any extra money in nyc, so who is buying? They are already stretched so thin on real estate. What’s going on?

@Budzyoner 3 жыл бұрын

Hey real vision, will you have Martin north from walk the world? Thanks

@chrissain1083 3 жыл бұрын

+ 1 7 0 5 2 3 0 8 8 6 0.

@geoffmtchell9603 3 жыл бұрын

What about technology being a deflationary force in the long term?

@FabiWann 3 жыл бұрын

Take the last 100 years of tech advancement. Have you seen any deflation? You can get deflation with gold and silver as money, not with FIAT coupon trash paper.

@carlkligerman1981 3 жыл бұрын

This entire, and seemingly interminable argument about inflation will always be an issue of definition. I think the heart of the matter lies with how we define value. Or, rather, the urgent need for all us all to redefine how we grasp the notion of value. We need a new toolkit, new levers to progress both our understanding of economics and how it frames policy. Think of any field of human endeavour making use of axioms that are more than two hundred years old. If a scientist or doctor were to do that we would think it nonsense and call them a lunatic. But economics seems to get a pass. When an economy becomes too top heavy it becomes unstable, and we are watching that play out. The rest is brass on the titanic.

@tipr8739 3 жыл бұрын

Also the avg. iq in technology advanced nations is dropping. Geniuses are dropping. The high tech revolution is not sustaining itself with the “next generation”

@Mike-dd8bd 3 жыл бұрын

@@FabiWann I don`t think the modern world can run on gold/silver backed currencies though.

@rsnewsome7073 3 жыл бұрын

Lot's of thoughts around the Cap Day discussion. While the Fed can cap rates on long term Treasury bonds, they can't control lending spreads. While we have been in a declining inflation environment for decades, once the trend in inflation turns structurally upwards, I would bet that the inflation component of the lending spread will become a more crucial (and significant) component. Questions include at what level does the Fed cap long term rates? At 1%? If at 2% or higher, could our over-leveraged economy withstand that increase? What would the non-bank financials (who have been driving the increase in the economy's leverage levels) do if inflation really does shoot up to 4%? Would they continue to lend at a level below where they lose purchasing power on their invested capital? And if non-bank financials decide to stop lending (and maybe decide to become gold miners), would commercial banks be able to absorb the trillions of existing debt that will need to be refinanced? Will all commercial banks lend money at a negative real rate, or would they just fold long before their equity value evaporates? Lot's of questions, no easy answers but most certainly a very bumpy road ahead. Thank you for the video, and thank you Mr. Napier for sharing your thoughts.

@healthygrowth7760 3 жыл бұрын

If money from government given directly to the public bypassing commercial banks creates inflationary forces.. Where does welfare, social security and all other programs fit into this conversation.. Keeping in mind that tax revenues are not enough to cover government spending

@walterwalker9320 3 жыл бұрын

Great show with a lot of excellent topics and thoughts that are based in reality !!! Gave me sense of hope.... Great guest and moderator!!

@TheBbturtle 3 жыл бұрын

It's very simple. The government has every incentive to have low interest rates and inflation & the power to make both of those things happen. Any bouts of deflation we've had was due to inexperience with managing this monetary system & a lack of knowledge about what was going on in the credit markets. The fed and Washington are determined to inflate the monetary supply and keep interest rates low. My bet is that their persistence and past experience helps them do it.

@olgachumak7975 3 жыл бұрын

Thank you so much for such fascinating and exploratory interview. Truly, European countries are expensively growing their debt burdens, but US is doing the same. Though, considering reserve currency status and other factors, US have always managed to become the most attractive investment area. But in the contemporary environment and direction of change, viability of such outcome is quite doubtful.

@elplata7224 3 жыл бұрын

Mandatory minimum wage will be the wage growth?

@sivi9741 3 жыл бұрын

Well it should be right? Globalisation created the problem and the corporations never wanted to pay their workers .. So governments now have to act ...

@thoughtsbeforefeelings 3 жыл бұрын

Lacy Hunt stated that the trigger for Inflation concerns is when the Fed Reserves are used in the broad money supply. If I am understanding this correct, the Fed and Treasury will effectively be doing this when the PPP loans are forgiven.

@adamc2320 3 жыл бұрын

When the money for the PPP loans is forgiven, it just gets added to the national debt. Money wouldn't need to be allocated in the spending bills for PPP if that was the case.

@nicholasstabile445 3 жыл бұрын

@@adamc2320 huh? Regardless of whether it’s forgiven or not it’s inflationary in that money is created. Upon paying it back (which lets face it, no is paying it back, either they’ll meet the forgiveness requirements, or they’ll default) then that money creation is destroyed. Everyone is saying no inflation due to the shut down of money velocity by federal mandates to close/limit capacity on businesses. All of that money that the fed just gave away is finding its way into the stock market as there’s literally no other place to spend it. Additionally as far as grocery prices, the bailouts to the farmers is preventing drastic price increases as demand continues to rise.

@adamc2320 3 жыл бұрын

@@nicholasstabile445 The money had to be spent on payroll and the business so if anything it's just bridging part of the output gap. Even if it's forgiven it's part of the national debt. Bonds need to be issued to pay for it, like all of the other spending provisions in the Cares Act. I think the mandates to close businesses has little effect on inflation. Excess debt leads to deflation over the long term. This is well documented.

@nicholasstabile445 3 жыл бұрын

@@adamc2320 the system literally cannot deflate. The deflationary spiral would collapse the system entirely. Tell me where you see any signs of deflation? Certainly not in asset prices. Stocks, Bonds, real estate, bitcoin & Gold all at all time highs. How about CPI numbers? Has your grocery bill gone down? Energy? Restaurant bill? All have increased. The only thing that is cheaper now than in the past is technology...tvs, computers , cameras..etc. unemployment has never been higher, people eating at food banks. If there is deflation, what would be the remedy for the millions already suffering from poverty? One persons spending is another person’s income. If the system is allowed to fail it just gets that much worse for the have nots....literal starvation and homelessness on epic levels. Not going to happen in my opinion. Please feel free to reubut my argument.

@catcar9157 3 жыл бұрын

@@adamc2320 then we become Japan?

@michaelharrison9340 3 жыл бұрын

Excellent interview with Russell (the non-Scotsman). Thank you

@RayyanMusa 3 жыл бұрын

Brilliant insight, Russell Napier's explanation thing to come make difficult on what financial bets to place.

@whenmullet2674 3 жыл бұрын

Left after the first commercial for Real Vision.

@peterpeeters9599 3 жыл бұрын

Great interview!

@l.a.mottern3106 3 жыл бұрын

Great Interview!

@BasedHawaiian 3 жыл бұрын

Actual conversation begins at 4:43.

@tonyfaulknor8273 3 жыл бұрын

2:12 He's a Bard. The wisdom of the ancient ones is back.

@hoangnguyen511 3 жыл бұрын

Where can i find (subscribe) Russell’s work?

@Zaphod23 3 жыл бұрын

what are the two debts?

@JimX218 3 жыл бұрын

Excellent video as usual

@nicholasstabile445 3 жыл бұрын

Inventory is low?? Hope he’s not talking about real estate in Manhattan. Commercial real estate is more than available and so are apartments. Yet prices remain steady.

@deltad6621 3 жыл бұрын

that US Personal savings is only a function of the defaults to come in housing and rent. This is savings from people not paying. The question is will they pay later or take the hit on their credit?

@themoneyfork319 3 жыл бұрын

Doubt very much it’ll be paid later.

@radeque 3 жыл бұрын

Great interview

@cjfinance3829 3 жыл бұрын

At last, found time to watch this video! Really great video, one of the best on RV. Excellent Napier, great story teller, large and profund knowledge and not using dry language of academics. Spot on questions from Brent. Glad they also talked about the elephant in the room (China). Sadly i am afraid "Big Finance" is lured by China... I lived there and i can understand the attraction: well educated, brilliant & hard working population, but the CCP controls everything and they will never let go. Also, China is ultra nationalist, would have I invested in Germany in 1936? shure it was quite attractive, they had a Chancellor who loved order! but... China's rules are not the same, we are only "barbarians" to them. I am French, I left France in 2000 for UK, I voted with my feet, Napier is sadly right on France... going nowhere (new Venezuela / Argentina?). Sadly more and more countries are going nowhere. Singapore?

@rogerrose4845 3 жыл бұрын

China is business, America nation builder running out of growth. I hope it does not cause another war.

@Kid_Ikaris 3 жыл бұрын

22:07 was hilarious

@petelipson3769 3 жыл бұрын

8:00 in ,his comments make a lot of sense with regard to "non investment" grade debt outpacing income,productivity. Exactly what Ray Dalio refers to in his economic machine (30 minute) video.

@nateo6806 3 жыл бұрын

Historical Like for my man Cincinnatus, one of the best rulers you've never heard of.

@WTFinancepodcast 2 жыл бұрын

It is crazy how right he has been with everything that has happened!

@srmxe417 Жыл бұрын

Another year lapsed and still holds!

@svenvanderzaken 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks, really insightfull

@kulturfreund6631 3 жыл бұрын

You're welcome.

@snowbound1238 3 жыл бұрын

Did i hear right? Cap day will force institutions to buy debt, so those institutions will have to sell equities? Isnt that deflationary?

@LusoCMD 3 жыл бұрын

This is such a great interview!!! Well done Brent and Russell is amazing.

@j3rb3 3 жыл бұрын

One of the best pods of 2020 in my opinion - thanks! One question came to my mind though when discussing about genious Swiss plan to buy World equities after excess demand for their currency and statement that capital controls would be better solution. Why would capital control be better solution for the Swiss than buying top equities from the world? What would the Swiss gain of the capital control vs. their current solution?

@3joez3 3 жыл бұрын

Excellent!!

@pjdelucala 3 жыл бұрын

Debt financed by increasing the monetary base through the Fed or through the commercial banks using the fractional reserve banking system always creates inflation. It is part of the Quantity Theory of Money M * V = P * Y. When asset values go up, it is inflation. When real estate values go up, it is inflation. Even if prices don't go up but stay the same, it is inflation and that is because the natural consequence of an expanding economy is deflation. That is because you are increasing aggregate supply as the economy grows. You need to look at the data from the 19th century in the U.S. It was a century in general of deflation! The only debt that does not create inflation is non-bank loans. If I lend my money to my friend, that does not create inflation. All the rest is inflationary and then is the prelude to a deflationary bust when loans get paid back or go into default . The boom and bust cycles is 100% man made and totally avoidable.

@migueis007 3 жыл бұрын

Can you help me to understand what would be a safe option in that scenario ? holding cash ?

@TheCJUN 3 жыл бұрын

This Scottish Irishman is brilliant. Thank you Real Vision for hosting this discussion!

@JM-gu3tx 3 жыл бұрын

The proper term, which most Americans do not (and should know) is "Ulster Scotsman". It's what Americans erroneously call "Scots-Irish".

@MarkMark-ji6ts 3 жыл бұрын

Deflationary 2020. Housing up, Food prices up, Stock market up, Bitcoin up, Gold up, Silver up, Council rates up, Insurance up. Yep deflation totally everywhere.

@sparksj20 3 жыл бұрын

Deflationary relative to other currencies in the dxy. Consumer inflation is up

@tylerminix2028 3 жыл бұрын

It's like you didn't even listen to the interview.

@adamc2320 3 жыл бұрын

A bit skeptical of the 4% inflation target for next year. With low interest rates hurting margins and tens of million of Americans either not paying rent or in mortgage forbearance, can we really expect banks to want to lend?

@sivi9741 3 жыл бұрын

government will make huge stimulus again and again , creating inflation since the banks don’t want to create money by lending . So government will lend (helicopter money) themselves.

@adamc2320 3 жыл бұрын

Under current laws any new stimulus has to be financed with debt (bonds) which is deflationary in the long term. They can change the laws but it would mean completely eliminating the federal reserve which is a giant step. Would also like to add that I think most people in Congress recognize that hyperinflation is far worse than deflation.

@timgriner529 3 жыл бұрын

One thing that I believe is that if inflation Brent will change his position. I am in no way qualified to argue for inflation or deflation so I am trying to prepare for either. Either way we will eventually pay for Our undisciplined fiscal policies.

@stevenjohnson1062 3 жыл бұрын

Brent another awesome interview. I see things a little different now. Thank you.

@jminter 3 жыл бұрын

Alright, so if the government caps the rate, it must also ban bonds sale! Otherwise - who will buy the bonds when holders start dumping ?

@whenmullet2674 3 жыл бұрын

The Fed is buying everything and that will continue.

@WorldReserveCurrency 3 жыл бұрын

Brent Johnson: Russell, do you have a formula for how I can win a bet against Peter Schiff?

@fallenangel2123 3 жыл бұрын

4:01 please don't interrupt

@charlygriffin2828 3 жыл бұрын

There's a lot of things in this interview where I'm thinking 'are you sure about that?' Russell's economic solutions seem entirely based on introducing draconian laws to make people and institutions do things against their interests.

@JB026 3 жыл бұрын

Awesome interview, ty

@danis1977 3 жыл бұрын

Brents financial predictions track record is on par with Harry Dent

@maxcc9161 3 жыл бұрын

lol

@JC-XL 3 жыл бұрын

Exactly, and the guy continues to push his milk-shake theory 😂 😂

@12InchesUnBuffed 3 жыл бұрын

that's what happens when they believe low rates = deflationary low rates is inflationary first then deflationary later when debt becomes unsustainable and ends up bursting, thereby driving rates to double digits.

@jamesknight7705 3 жыл бұрын

TY for a high level discussion in terms and presentation but hay that's what you expect and receive from Real Vision. Thanks for putting this information out there for free. Raoul's content on the subscription service is outstanding.

@caroledoerr6872 3 жыл бұрын

They are going to finish the transfer of wealth through taxes to pay for all of this financialization of the government and the economy.

@caroledoerr6872 3 жыл бұрын

You are right. Interest rates have transferred wealth from older savers.

@sandymilne224 3 жыл бұрын

The premise that inflation will come needs to come with a question. That is, with all the money printing and borrowing going on... will all this come with higher taxes? If it does, then that is a drain on the economy. Additionally, the baby boomers are not spending. That’s deflationary. From the ’street’, it appears that we have monetary inflation, but wage and price deflation. We also have asset inflation when money printing debases the currency, and with zero based interest rates it doesn’t pay having cash, hence there is asset inflation. It could very well be that Biden increases wages, but with household debts so high, even higher wages won’t translate into higher spending. It will be used to pay down debt. Hence my guess is that we are heading into ‘Stagflation’ and not inflation. Allen Greenspan believes that. What do you guys think about that thinking?

@zubstep 3 жыл бұрын

Sounds about right, but I am betting on the stagflation being of a highly uneven character. Some industries are going to continue to do very well, like semiconductors and defense. The latter I anticipate will do well because of increasing geopolitical instability amid the standoff b/w China and the US. The former should be obvious, for data centers demand growth as well as high margin 5g smartphones and other luxury electronics. Regarding wages specifically, higher average wages could occur via minimum wage laws but that will drag unemployment further and be harmful to small business, most acutely in less economically developed areas where that minimum price on labor is higher relative to local price levels. This wage policy could also be interpreted as, or genuinely motivated by, an effort to punish political opposition because of the greater economic harm inflicted upon rural areas via unemployment, but I digress; the main point is a vision of a very uneven stagflation where both policy and market factors play a role in driving large disparities.

@chriskenney4377 3 жыл бұрын

I'm wondering what happens with Zombie companies. Will all this money keep them alive?

@peterwilson9327 3 жыл бұрын

it keeps them 'undead"

@chriskenney4377 3 жыл бұрын

@@peterwilson9327 Too bad. Some things need to die.

@andrequitobastos 3 жыл бұрын

Amazing to hear this interview in 2021 and see how much Napier got it right. Brilliant.

@gerardocarrillo56 3 жыл бұрын

Incredibly valuable information. Great discussions.

@tylerhill9483 3 жыл бұрын

So the FED buying the debt of the federal government then the federal government reducing taxes and handing out stimulus checks isn't inflationary?

@alvinrodgers934 3 жыл бұрын

Velocity. It doesn’t matter until the money changes hands. When you receive a direct payment from the Fed with an expiration date you’ll see velocity and remember this post

@arnoldziffel5627 3 жыл бұрын

All the while doing lockdowns that throttle the supply of goods and services.

@xiangyang99 2 жыл бұрын

Russell is amazing. His forecast on inflation in 2021 was amazingly prescient.

@Antonocon 3 жыл бұрын

It sounded towards the end there as if he was somewhat debunking the dollar milkshake theory. Other than the seven countries that regularly hyperinflate the other countries should be as stable as the USA and following similar policies.

@fundyourhustle 3 жыл бұрын

Wow one of the better interviews. 👏 great job, definitely going to look more into Napier and his work.

@samueldrzymala9108 3 жыл бұрын

@20:11: The Central Bank lending program they're talking about is going to be canceled by the Republican Party. The latest version of the stimulus package deal ends the program. That means DEFLATION.

@andrewlau9583 3 жыл бұрын

Real Vision Ad-breaks are THE WORST TIMED OF ALL TIME

@e7venjedi 3 жыл бұрын

They are so loud and shocking too. I need a warning that it's coming up to not have a heart attack.

@miklossz 3 жыл бұрын

They say we had a deflationary environment in the last few years. I don't understand why they say that. CPI was growing, money supply was growing (except m0) and asset prices were generally rising.

@samikhatib2158 3 жыл бұрын

Disinflation

@samikhatib2158 3 жыл бұрын

Not negative but going down historically

@ChuckOriley 3 жыл бұрын

Loved this one...kinda bridges the van metre/schiff gap

@ChuckOriley 3 жыл бұрын

Eh s'scam

@uzah88 3 жыл бұрын

There’s no way cap day is possible. I mean the kind of judges we have right now are so conservative and wouldn’t do something so drastic that alters or goes against the constitution. You’d need congress to amend the constitution or use some emergency back door policy will be most likely scenario for cap day in America.

@nicholasstabile445 3 жыл бұрын

Milkshake theory all wet

@oanairani41 3 жыл бұрын

Fantastic interview...thank you

@carllowegren431 3 жыл бұрын

This is Quality!

@bunnyunicorn5209 3 жыл бұрын

Brilliant

@neofoo23 3 жыл бұрын

Wonderful interview. Thanks you so much, Brent and Russell.

@mrenovatio3739 3 жыл бұрын

14:30 ... What are the implications of limiting non-bank debt to debt capital markets? 🤔

@hckytwn3192 3 жыл бұрын

Doesn’t Cryptocurrency blow up this whole plan? Not a single mention of that in this entire video.

@mrnegative48 3 жыл бұрын

that was mind blowing but i still think there is a problem with getting the middle and lower classes spending money, id certainly listen to another 2-3hrs worth

@philippe8160 3 жыл бұрын

'Zeitgeist' is not pronounced like that.

@rejhanpuskar 3 жыл бұрын

I LOLed as well...

@ainisepalu8427 3 жыл бұрын

I am understanding what is happening in our economy. Great interview!

@George-jm4rn 3 жыл бұрын

The interview was frustrating. First, the interviewer should not tell us what the interviewee thinks and has said or written. Let the interviewee speak for himself. Second, make your questions succinct. That said, Napier is a wonderful teacher and his insights and perspectives were valuable.

@retro8919 3 жыл бұрын

I can’t wait to see how old this is

@retro8919 3 жыл бұрын

Not disappointed, over a month

@retro8919 3 жыл бұрын

@@governmentofficial_23 I think they wait to long to drop material, a week or two would be sufficient

@ceegee4875 3 жыл бұрын

Increasing debt on the balance sheet while not creating new money is indeed deflationary. Man that situation sounds familiar...

@chrissain1083 3 жыл бұрын

+ 1 7 0 5 2 3 0 8 8 6 0 .

@Rob-ft3qe 3 жыл бұрын

Great discussion, really enjoyed it.

@SmallSmartDecicions 3 жыл бұрын

Brent "I have white headphones" Johnson

@kulturfreund6631 3 жыл бұрын

He highly praises his interview partner without even knowing where he's from? Scotsman? : ) Even I as a German without knowing the man at all, hear that he's Irish. Reminds me of the joke of the young couple that just got married and that has its first private crisis: She: D...D...Darling...I...I...I...have to confess something to you! ...I...I...I'm colorblind ! He: Oh, Darling. I also have to confess something to you: I'm not from Jena. ...I'm from Ghana.

@BasedHawaiian 3 жыл бұрын

Napier lives and works in Scotland. Everyone, who’s anyone, knows Napier for his prowess.