Rolex Grey Dealers Going Bankrupt! Watch Out for Plummeting Prices!

Рет қаралды 25,098

Күн бұрын

Embark on a revealing journey into the heart of the luxury watch market with this video, where we delve into the unfolding crisis among Rolex grey dealers and its impact on Rolex prices. As the watch industry faces a significant shift, we provide a nuanced analysis of what's driving these changes and how they're reshaping the landscape for collectors.
In this exploration, we uncover a vital piece of information that stands out amidst the tumult - a statistic that offers a unique perspective on the current state and future of Rolex collecting. While the focus is broader, understanding this specific aspect can be crucial for anyone invested in the world of luxury watches.
With an emphasis on market data and trends, we aim to equip Rolex enthusiasts and potential investors with the knowledge and insights needed to navigate this uncertain terrain. Whether you are a seasoned collector or new to Rolex watches, this video is a must-watch to stay informed and prepared for what lies ahead in the Rolex market.
Join us as we dissect the complexities of the current situation, offering a clear-eyed view of the challenges and opportunities in the world of luxury watch collecting. This is more than just a review; it's a guide to making informed decisions in a rapidly evolving market."

Пікірлер: 292

@Akj6zmdteuxze 7 ай бұрын

2 years ago , I was told by a very snobbish dealer that if u dun buy today, u will never buy at this low price. I paused and looked at him , I wondered for a moment how dumb could a person be but nevertheless agreed with him that he is right . Fast forward today, his shop is now closed. Just saying

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Such arrogance is exactly what I'm talking about in this video.

@MrJintensive 6 ай бұрын

Just like car sales.

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

@@MrJintensive I had to buy a car last year. Glad to hear things are getting better.

@ultimatedouchebag6760 2 ай бұрын

The biggest scammer of them all is Rolex

@stanlee3619 7 ай бұрын

I love hearing this. Everyone was playing musical chairs, but then the music stopped.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

It's the plain truth. Someone's going to get left hold the empty bag.

@dimitrismina4201 7 ай бұрын

Insightful, educated, reliable analysis as always. Thank you

@BAF605 7 ай бұрын

Well summarised. I'm no economist but I can watch the signs as well as the next man, and have been round the inflation block before. I never bought into the price fever because I got stung on some Tulip bulbs a while back. Enjoyed the humour injections too. 4P and Tugger announcing their engagement. 😂😂😂I've only bought Rolex from an AD but going forward I suspect prices may soon be better elsewhere for many models. Due diligence required though!! Subbed.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

The tulip mania is one of the first things we study in classical economics.

@BoleDaPole 28 күн бұрын

Hold on to your tulip bulbs, the market is bound to bounce back eventually! Pineapples are another money maker.

@WatcheswithDennis 7 ай бұрын

I got on my AD list for a no date Sub earlier in the year. I will keep waiting as I assume it is only a matter of time and grey dealers are still demanding more than retail (though not by much). As a non-economist I think most of the established second-hand sellers will be fine, with of course some belt tightening (Watchfinder, WatchBox/1916, etc.). Concur on what I call backpack flippers are going to be crushed. I suppose those who were entirely consignment based could last a while given they do not have high dollar sunk costs but to what end (and owners will eventually be wanting those watches back if they won't agree to sell much lower than planned)? I think Hodinkee did take a lot of damage mostly due to acquiring Crown & Caliber and that slew of inventory now massively devalued from where it stood at purchase. Ultimately, I am hoping to see some good second-hand deals in 2024 especially on the less popular brands, as I am thinking many sellers will compromise more to liquidate slow-moving models to generate cash. Anyway, nice video, enjoy your dry humor usage.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Thanks. Everyone's going to have to tighten their belts. And those fly by nights are gone. If I had any watches on consignment, I would demand them back right now! But like you say, I think there will be good deals to be had in 2024. And good luck on the Sub! I'm waiting for the same with my AD.

@craig3949 3 ай бұрын

Don’t buy as an investment and you will be fine. Nothing poorer than people that buy Rolex and can’t wear them hahahahaha

@tonyhalpin1320 7 ай бұрын

Excellent video, thanks. Delighted to see the start of the end of the watch flippers/scalpers/touts whatever you want to call them, they are all the same thing. Bought a Datejust in 2016 from an AD with the view to getting a Submariner next. Of course it never happened primarily due to flippers and a self imposed ban on me buying from flippers/grey dealers. Promised myself I would never pay over retail and only buy from an AD. The changes happening is not only to grey market dealers, ADs are not laughing at potential customers anymore. Walked into an AD recently, they could not be nicer. Offered to take my name for stainless steel SD 43 with an assurance it is very achievable ( no purchase history reqd). I suspect in the not too distant future, more and more desirable pieces will be more and more available. A watch should be bought because you love it, or you hope to pass it to your kids….not an an “Investment”.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Yup, when I picked up my OP recently I could sense a diff atmosphere. They know the hype is going down fast!

@brainbits6065 7 ай бұрын

Fantastic video, wish they were more frequent. Love the no nonsense approach. Keep it up!

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

My day job is keeping me busy and I'm still learning this youtube thing. Thanks for your kind words.

@dannysimenauer5745 7 ай бұрын

I enjoy your channel along with WatchCharts. You bring a clear and concise analysis based on actual data! Many of the grey market channels scream now is a good time to buy, yet carry few watches in inventory. Plus, we don't see many collectors buying in their videos. Earlier in November The 1916 Corporation was formed. It is going to sell new Rolex in its stores, but only going to sell 100% Rolex CPO, and removed all of its grey market inventory. What will be the impact on independent grey market prices going forward?

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Yup, if it goes up it's time to buy. If it drops, it's time to buy haha. People don't want to hear this but the CPO program will not sustain Rolex prices in the long run. It will simply be another tier in used prices, mostly which will be below retail.

@dannysimenauer5745 7 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 You and I feel the same way about CPO prices not staying above retail. Do you think CPO prices are negotiable, or will the ADs keep CPO over retail?

@Roy-vh9rp 7 ай бұрын

Not only will dealers sell/dump more inventory, but Rolex is also planning to increase their production. Three additional factories are expected to start manufacturing Rolex watches, beginning in 2025, located in the canton of Fribourg. Additionally, Rolex has plans to launch a new $1.1 billion factory in Bulle, Switzerland, with production commencing in 2029.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Yup, between dumping inventory and new production, Rolex used prices *have* to go down. There's no other way. Thanks for the details.

@greaterbayareahero1401 7 ай бұрын

It will all end in tears for Rolex. Supply is over the top.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

@@greaterbayareahero1401 yup, a 3 year high in supply will only force prices down.

@rolex_watch_collector7044 5 ай бұрын

Yes Rolex has acquired additional factories an increase in production will only damage the brand. I believe they are gearing up to move towards more precious metal watches decreasing the amount of stainless steel moving towards limited titanium and a change in the business model. Your order will go to Rolex and then collection of your piece via an AD if not sent direct. I can also see it where you will still need a spend history to acquire the more sort after watches. Rolex have enough problems with a lack of watch makers coming into the business so my guess is the factories will be more automated.

@greaterbayareahero1401 5 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 In Asia, most people are dumping their inventory. Only probably the Daytona's will have a bottom for the prices. For the rest it will continue to go down.

@richierich7609 7 ай бұрын

The market continues to soften but in the United States there is no overall economic crash and there remains a floor under everything, even with higher interest rates. I am not rushing out to buy a watch right now but neither am I panicking over the watches I own. It will be fine in the long run.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

I'm going to do a follow up video on why the lack of a recession is a very bad sign for Rolex prices. But agreed that there's no rush to buy. I think mid next year will be better.

@elwynll 7 ай бұрын

I ended up getting a piece in japan couple weeks ago. One of the reasons I went 5 digits is because I still couldn't bring myself to pay above retell for a 6 digit. Will be interesting to see what happens in the next year. Albeit if I get a call from my AD I'll still get the piece 😅

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Congrats on the new watch! Many collectors consider the 5 digit references the best. And it's fine to buy at retail. Rolex will not be dropping their prices.

@grigorioschristodoulou5229 6 ай бұрын

5 digit have elegance and soul, 6 digit ones look like bulky cheap knockoffs

@Andromahlius 7 ай бұрын

The issue is, people want the market to crash so bad they can get a Rolex for 1500, that's not going to happen.

@donnaskelcy 6 ай бұрын

This video was terrific. However, I am not seeing lower prices in the grey market (trusted grey dealers that is). Can you tell me why I still see high prices on the grey market?

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

Economists talk about sticky prices. Businesses are reluctant to lower prices after they go up. But that's for traditional retail. The secondary market can't afford that luxury. Those grey dealers must lower prices or they can't sell watches. Hope isn't a plan.

@NoelLorenzanaCPA 7 ай бұрын

Good video! The bottom is when used prices approach or become less than AD prices. That's a good price floor. But, seriously, who's buying grey market when you can buy direct from your AD?

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Direct from AD is the only way to go!

@FortunateSon Ай бұрын

No AD I’ve seen is tripping over themselves to sell me a GMT Master ii.

@jorgeseasyrecipes 7 ай бұрын

Excellent diagnose! I truly appreciate your comments and analytical point of view. Personally I´ll wait til next year... I believe it will be on our buyer´s side.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Yup, I asked for a Sub from my AD, but I don't think I'll see it until late next year.

@mjdm1925 7 ай бұрын

Thanks

@EverythingisaRemix164 7 ай бұрын

Excellent advice as always!

@mrthinkpositive-ty9hl 7 ай бұрын

I Really enjoyed your video and subscribed. An AD I spoke to says he’s very busy. I don’t know how accurate that statement is but how do you feel the Rolex ADs are being affected by the downturn? Are they feeling it or is demand strong enough that they are working through their lists and filling orders?

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

There's still demand for Rolex at retail. So that's true. But what they sense is that the hype days are gone. I've heard from more buyers that they are refusing offers from their AD, and putting purchases on hold. So for now, there is enough demand, but they see the downward trend. What's driving this trend is the loss of instant money from flipping.

@johanmeert530 6 ай бұрын

I think people are going back to their AD's more now because the AD's are finally getting stuff back in stock. When I visit the Rolex store at LHR last month they still had zero watches for sale and their display only contained some of the most basic watches: no GMT, daydate, skydweller or Daytona to be seen. At my local AD watches are starting to come back in. They told me I could get any GMT I wanted within 3-6 weeks.

@bl1204 5 ай бұрын

@@johanmeert530They all stocks, just kept hidden away in the safe. 😁

@watchr0b 7 ай бұрын

I still regret the one time I paid $800 above retail for a watch. I don’t recommend ever paying above retail.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

It's ok. We all learn from our mistakes. We're human.

@paulbonaventura4969 6 ай бұрын

I regret paying retail for my tag aquaracer. It's stunning and I knew all about watches but did it on a vacation whim. So now its' wroth half and I can't even get people to buy it (in great shape too).

@leonk8113 7 ай бұрын

Love your video!

@ronaldlowe295 5 ай бұрын

Great video, thanks. Talk is always about Rolex, what about brands such as Grand Seiko, Omega, and the like?

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

Thanks. People are really upset about Rolex, the prices and wait list. So I focused my analysis on that. Definitely, I would like to move on to GS and Omega, etc. I have a seamaster, and hunting for a spring drive now.

@ronaldlowe295 5 ай бұрын

I subscribed to your channel and will start perusing past videos. I am also looking forward to future videos. I have never quite resonated with Rolex. Great watch, with a classic design, but a little too pricey. I have been an Omega fan for years. I own a Seamaster, Speedmaster Broad Arrow moon phase, and my recent addition is a Grand Seiko Chrono. Love it. So many watches, not enough dollars. Thanks for your reply. Ron✌@@mywatchjourney6579

@michaelfrock2473 7 ай бұрын

Hoping I don’t have to wait 5 years for a steel MSRP Daytona.

@jazzman5598 7 ай бұрын

Fine vid! Thanks

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Glad you liked it!

@HawaiianHorology 5 ай бұрын

Great video I really enjoy your content keep it going!

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

I appreciate it!

@user-mr9yy3yf9q 7 ай бұрын

Just like the car dealers that demanded "add dealer markup." They can't go broke fast enough for me now.

@Latharn 7 ай бұрын

I got my 126610LN last week from my AD. It's a timepiece I plan to wear for many years like the 16600 and 5513 I had before it, not an investment or speculation "safe queen." The key is to buy what you like and like what you buy so you enjoy wearing it no matter what the market does in future. Not so long ago, the grey market was, for the vast majority of luxury watches (not stainless Daytonas, etc.), a means of saving a little compared to MSRP. Someday this will once again be the case.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Congrats! That's a grail for many people. And yeah, when the new production comes on line, it's going to be better times for true collectors.

@dannysimenauer5745 7 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 Are you referring to the production in the new factory in 2029? That is 7 years from now.

@josepayan7652 6 ай бұрын

Can you suggest a trusted source to purchase from?

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

Watchbox has a stellar reputation. But corresponding higher prices.

@stephengodsmark4353 7 ай бұрын

the force is with us!!! next year shall be our year

@Roy-vh9rp 7 ай бұрын

Great video, you have a new subscriber

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Awesome, thank you!

@mpiny 7 ай бұрын

Diamond demand is falling so fast De Beers is cutting some prices by more than 40%

@closer71 7 ай бұрын

That is an utterly meaningless metric. The markup in diamonds is about 92% so the actual wholesale cost of a $10,000 retail price diamond is around $800 before grading and marketing costs. Slashing retail prices by 40% just means the markup is down to 50%. So what? Now everyone is gonna run out and load up on diamonds or something? Ha! Ha! Ha!

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Agreed! Everyone can read the tea leaves .. aggregate demand is dropping fast. Luxury buying is already down 30%.

@sumbochen2519 6 ай бұрын

@closer71 facts. I was thinking the same. Hahah. Got all these fools thinking they got a price cut when its still heavily inflated. 😂😂😂

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

@@sumbochen2519 the price is whatever the market will bear. What's really dropping is demand. That's driving prices lower.

@terrancejackson5167 3 ай бұрын

Great video, I’m just hoping the price correction simply allows me to get a used Rolex for msrp which is still technically pretty inflated

@mywatchjourney6579 3 ай бұрын

You and me both!

@MrRusty7911 6 ай бұрын

Quick question Sir, how was AD pricing affected during COVID?

@MrRusty7911 6 ай бұрын

Just watched the Rolex Recession video, interest rate cut led to exorbitant spending on luxury goods, demand skyrocketed. Here's my take, a correction is coming. Worldwide, the likes of has never been seen. Economic turmoil, the death of the dollar. April/May will be rough. Pray pray pray.

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

Spot on!

@user-lc6qk1qr6u 7 ай бұрын

I expect it to go a lot lower and would hold out until next year to buy anything also other financial markets are on a constant trend down so that will also see a change in demand

@closer71 7 ай бұрын

Wait until we return to the days of 2011 when we were smashing Datejusts into pieces for the melt value of the 18K gold. Ya think that'll have an impact on Rolex supply? Ha! Ha! Ha! It's coming!

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Next year is my plan as well. Ignore the troll. He's prob a grey dealer.

@ripperx444 4 ай бұрын

You are 100% spot on for majority of these pieces! Look I just grabbed a explorer II mint full set couple years old... 8k In about 2017-2018 I was getting them around 7k so it's getting down there now... Daytonas I used to grab around 10,500 pre owned (mint full sets) Subs for 6750 Datejusts 6750 - 7k I don't see precise falling to those levels but will be normalized soon

@mywatchjourney6579 4 ай бұрын

Once the majority of the new production comes through, we will get back to sane prices. I see most models selling used below retail. There's no other way it can happen.

@user-mr9yy3yf9q 7 ай бұрын

I just talked with my small grey dealer. He doesn't stock much, but usually gets me what I want in a day or two. I asked him how much a white gold Pepsi GMT-II is going for above retail. He told me the blue dial models could be sold to me new (with box and papers) for below retail at around $38K. Meteorite dial models are still commanding $54K-$59K. Swiss Luxury must still be praying they can sell their blue dial models for $51K and the meteorite models for $62K. I understand the holiday season may freeze prices at this level, but we will probably see more drops in 2024. That said, a WG GMT-II at under-retail is a good deal. I'm also shocked that some people that HAVE to have the status piece they really can't afford often have to sell them during tax season and they'll forced to take a loss if they bought during the gouging.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Yup, precious metal Rolex are already below retail. If you'll excuse the vernacular, it has to do with the elasticity of demand which is higher at the top end of the market. Dealers are hanging on to dear life on the margins for the steel sports models. Who knows how long that will last. Even those are trending down.

@johnbrennan592 5 ай бұрын

Really hoping for a sprite below retail in 2024, that said if it doesn’t happen I’ll be fine.

@jamesfreeman7954 7 ай бұрын

Lols just got a text from my AD that they now have instock Rolex. Looks to be mostly Twotone Datejust though.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Yeah two tones can be had for retail now. Flippers are running away.

@markstav3566 7 ай бұрын

I very much enjoy your economic view on the hobby I love.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Thanks! I'm trying to bring something new to the community.

@tonyc1688aable 3 ай бұрын

In Asia, all the grade dealer are still doing very well and the price is still up there so I guess in different places people are seeing different view of about spinning value on a luxury watch

@justinobrien9241 5 ай бұрын

Good info👍🏻

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

Thank you!

@dklswh 5 ай бұрын

I have seen a few videos of dealers getting scammed with the super clones, would not doubt that some may be stocking up on them to pass them off, if a dealer can be scammed then the average buyer can also.

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

Yes, it's amazing what the Chinese can do with a sub $1k watch. Those super clones are scary.

@ulyssesvazquez387 4 ай бұрын

Glad I am still on a waitlist for once. Will continue to wait and visit my AD once every 3months.. LOL

@Milofchg 7 ай бұрын

Many grey dealers operate on cash dealer to dealer sales. Especially at watch dealer shows. With The Timepiece Gentlemen locked up and facing Federal criminal charges, AS WELL as a ongoing IRS investigation. Dealers are shitting in their pants. The IRS will look into watch dealer shows. Forget the criminal charges.... When you have the IRS on your back. THEY WILL look at everyone and anyone tied to Anthony Farrer. His former partners, his former employees, his watch dealer associates/friends that sold or bought watches from Anthony. The IRS will follow the money. Anthony will rat on people to get less time for sure. On the wire/mail fraud charges. This gives the Federal government a door to investigate possible money laundering related to high end luxury timepieces. Timepieces are the easiest, unregulated way to carry money around, and people will not notice.

@Mrsdstry 7 ай бұрын

I got an offer from Rolex boutique the sales rep said I can trade in my Tudor BB58 (I priced it at $3k) and skip the waiting list for a Batman on Oyster. Yes Rlx boutique wants to buy my Tudor you read it correctly. Should I take that offer?

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Only if you really love that watch. And Tudors have a big discount on secondary market. If you feel their offer for the BB58 is reasonable, it sounds like a good deal.

@Mrsdstry 7 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 yes that’s my grail watch. Thank you.

@americantarmacker514 29 күн бұрын

Can we get a update on Rolex gold day dates please thanks

@mywatchjourney6579 29 күн бұрын

My next video will be a big update on the market.

@dennisthespeedmenace7530 7 ай бұрын

I own a Rolex Dj and Tudor Bb58 which I bought through my ad thank god. I’m waiting, this watch market hasn’t seen the crash yet. I’m in housing and thank god I invested for bad whether. I haven’t seen a bad economic drop like this since 2008 and believe me it’s just getting started. Unemployment is going to implode. Peter was LB’s best employee and watch how fast his channel grows. Love your content

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Thanks for your kind words. Good job on getting it retail. I've also been monitoring the housing market. I'm expecting a crash there as well.

@jeffso4073 7 ай бұрын

Not yet I’m always buy Rolex with discount from AD so wait for next year when grey market price very close to retail then start looking

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

That's smart, and my plan as well.

@rodsalvador3608 7 ай бұрын

Rolex follows the other asset bubbles. If stocks and crypto reprice due to lower yields, Rolexes will follow several months later. But you're right, no bottom yet. The supply needs to be worked off.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Agreed. How do you go from highest inventory in 3 years to prices are at bottom? Makes no sense.

@jrgb9945 5 ай бұрын

Speaking of “crypto”, BTC ETFs really fell flat

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

@@jrgb9945 I could create a whole new channel about the nonsense around cyrpto.

@Crazy_Joe_Davola 7 ай бұрын

I am pretty sure the crashing prices refer to the inflated gray Market prices only, not the retail AD prices.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Yes, that's correct. Luxury watch makers don't lower their retail prices. But sometimes they off load slow inventory through the grey goods channel.

@josorzo11 7 ай бұрын

No sure, prices are still above retail everywhere I see, looking for sea dweller 43 and prices are still high.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

That one is still high, but many other models are already below retail.

@user-mr9yy3yf9q 7 ай бұрын

I think the most promising sign is the precious metal models have already dropped.

@acethis 7 ай бұрын

I'll bring out my popcorn and wait another year 😊

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Absolutely! That's my plan as well. I'm waiting on a Sub.

@Milofchg 7 ай бұрын

If anyone who is new to watches and this dying hype trend. All I have to say (look back at these bubbles).... Quartz crisis, Pocket Watch market hype in the 80's, Rolex Bubble-back hype of the early 90's, Panerai, Frank Mueller, Alan Silverstine, Hublot hype trend? All have crashed. What we ended up with today is the Social Media/online magazines/Crypto Bro market. Along with a younger generation of people with money, a HUGE growing middle -upper class Asian population that want luxury watches, and Rolex slowing production to produce new movements and not keeping up with the demand. This was the bubble. Back in the day there were fools that paid over $50K for Rolex Bubble-backs in 1991. Now the same watches can be found for under $5K. Where are all of these collectors? Where is the market for that? Gone, and those collectors got out of the watch game. Mark my words, Richard Mille, and AP are next.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

I heard the CEO of Rolex was laughing at customers for paying $50k for a Daytona. Even he knew that was a sucker bet.

@user-mr9yy3yf9q 7 ай бұрын

It's massive stupidity, but some people MUST have a material possession to FLEX with their peer group. @@mywatchjourney6579

@Milofchg 7 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 I would and still do LOL.

@paulbonaventura4969 6 ай бұрын

I was offered at retail the other month for a Rolex Explorer. I read up and heard they are now ambiguous and everywhere. It was also ... kinda boring, so if I do get one maybe I will go no Date sub

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

I love my Explorer, but the Sub is clearly the iconic watch in the collectors' eyes. I'm waiting on a Sub myself ;-).

@dska2294 6 ай бұрын

Great video, thank you for the quality presentation. 100% agree. Do you know what would be interesting? If everybody stopped buying things for about six months to a year. These are things we don’t have to get now. Basically all of these people are the ones who ripped us off. They’re the ones who made this look like a “”investment”. What a joke. This is just a hobby, and a great hobby. Bringing all of these speculators into our hobby ruined it. So I’m gonna call for it right now, everybody thinking about getting a watch, everybody on that waitlist at Rolex, or Patek, tell them you’re gonna wait one year. Don’t take me off the list I just wanna see how things go.

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

You're spot on. In a way, people are already doing this by avoiding the hype watches. The data shows this is happening. Look at the prices on the most popular Rolex models; all dropping.

@anthonygray7012 7 ай бұрын

Hi friend, surely still ok to buy from Rolex AD? Wait it out…..can’t see those prices come down….

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Yeah, that's fine. Buying retail from AD still makes sense. If you love the watch, you should get it.

@bertdejesus3578 6 ай бұрын

Thank you for this very informative video. I buy watches for my own satisfaction. My son can inherit all my watches if ever. They can enjoy them or just sell them its really up to them. I am 6 feet under anyways at such time

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

That's really the best way to enjoy watches I think. I do the same. Thanks for your kind words.

@a_lucientes 7 ай бұрын

_Hard-working masseuse_ I didnt know that bit abt him.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

He set up shop on grindr.

@a_lucientes 7 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 Yea, I thought that service pic looked a bit more like someone selling more than just shoulder rubs.

@geoffreycotter 6 ай бұрын

dont know

@barbaragancia1199 21 күн бұрын

People are still traumatized about having the money but not being able to get the watch they desired, no matterhow hard they tried. So, I guess they’re still prepared to pay overprice to put the cherished Daytona or Kermit on their wrist. Question is: for how long before they get completely nauseated with Rolex?

@SdotThompson 5 ай бұрын

I felt and tbh, kinda hoped this would happen. Sure, it's easy to point to a guy and lay everything at his feet, but the truth is, this industry runs almost entirely on hype. The value of practically all leaders in the industry is grossly overvalued and inflated. They took unattainable products and simply placed it on the wrists of Lebron James, Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal, Rappers and other celebs to justify prices. Add to that, the hoarding by millionaires and billionaires claiming value in these tiny pieces of steel has been absurd. This correction was needed and it's a shame that a lot of the people that are going to lose will also be people who got sucked into the hype.

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

Yeah, Kevin O Leary has been ridiculous with his flexing and talk of 'investment watches'. It's time for the market to return to sanity.

@kelvin.008 7 ай бұрын

I was laughing when Rolexes prices were sold above RRP, I used to buy them at close to 30% discount from ADs. What I did was, buy other brands brand new at up to 50% discount from the flippers who were made to buy these brands in order to get their Rolex allocation. 😂

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Very smart! I should have done that too haha

@dracovenit9549 6 ай бұрын

Massive watches are going out of fashion also.

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

Absolutely! And my 6 1/2 inch wrist is very happy 😁

@patrickjean-philippe7679 5 ай бұрын

It is so much better to wait until the market bottoms out. Anyway, watches are non-essential items and furthermore modern machine mass produced ones are definitely not rare, will always be available so I would say playing the waiting game is the smartest way to go. 😉

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

Yup, the market will ebb and flow, but clearly the long term trend is downward. Especially with the new production coming in 2025.

@watchchat 6 ай бұрын

Waiting brother, still more room for price drops

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

That's my plan too. I've got lots of Xmas shopping to do anyways 😉

@drewhunkins7192 7 ай бұрын

Jomashop is still doing well. I've purchased three different Rolex watches from Joma over the past six years and never ever had the slightest problem.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

I actually like Jomashop. As long as you get the warranty, it's a great deal. But they are not Rolex grey dealers, more traditional grey goods channel.

@dannysimenauer5745 7 ай бұрын

Drew, did Joma include the original box, papers, and the warranty card? I heard that Joma keeps the warraty card. Thanks in advance.

@drewhunkins7192 7 ай бұрын

I did indeed get the original box, papers, and warranty card. I can't guarantee you'll have the same results but I was happy with the service/product. @@dannysimenauer5745

@jrgb9945 5 ай бұрын

Did you get box and papers?

@drewhunkins7192 5 ай бұрын

@@dannysimenauer5745 I got the original box and papers and a special warranty from Joma themselves.

@watchPaige 7 ай бұрын

as long you buy at retail in AD sports steel " TIER ONE" models - steel daytona, GMT, submariner . You are safe . its not crashing ,its a correction went back to earth pre pandemic . as long its trading above retail and not available in AD's showcase walk in purchase your safe.. market is crashing if you see "TIER ONE " models in the cases ESP. Steel Daytona to purchase . Thats indication that its over

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

I do agree that buying retail is the best choice. Luxury watch makers never drop their prices. But there are Rolex models now listing below retail. Don't be surprised when some sport steel models go below too. There's nothing magical about their pull in the market. There was a time Rolex couldn't give the Daytona away.

@user-mr9yy3yf9q 7 ай бұрын

The point is you can't buy those at an AD without a massive purchase of other goods. I did score a SS Sky Dweller that they asked me if I wanted. I'm a known non-flipper and had spent $200K on watches from them. They offer nothing now. They sold be a SS Daytona in 2009, but claimed I won a drawing from among their best customers. I predict it will be a VERY long time before you can ask and get a SS sport Rolex just by walking into the store.

@999NINE99 6 ай бұрын

The mergers are to limit the losses in buying too much inventory at the peak of the market. That is the issue with buying and selling second hand. When prices plummet, if you don't have the proper hedging in place, you lose you business. The grey market was easy to enter and therefore the level of sophistication of the participants is low. None of them forecasted such a drop in prices. Delusion levels are directly related to the amount of instant success new sellers experience. The Rolex merger is not comparable as dealers buy and sell at retail (which is the safeset hedge).

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

They will limit the losses by cutting costs, including staff. That already happening of course. And you are spot on about the lack of sophistication from people who jumped into 'watch trading academy' hoping for big bucks. Maybe I can line up an interview with Mr Farrer about the dangers of the grey market lol.

@Shimra8888 7 ай бұрын

But will prices ever dip below retail? They haven’t yet for the stainless steel models. Will you ever see a panda or Pepsi in the store for store for sale?

@patsmith3894 7 ай бұрын

Why not? Rolex and their scumbag ADs manipulate production and withhold supply to manipulate prices. The AD model counts upon selling the majority of their stock to grey market and concealing profits from the taxman. Rolex is a sleazy, dishonest company that might choose to dump stock at any given time for a quick buck. Just because Rolex did not do this previously, does not mean they won't. Luxury goods has a dirty underside. The dirty underside of the dirty underside is Rolex. Will they be able to keep their games going forever? Forever is a long time.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Some models, especially the precious metal, have already dropped below retail. And with new production coming on, best not to make assumptions about prices for the long term. It's going to be a bumpy ride, with plenty of ups and downs.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

We know ADs have to selling back end to grey dealers. Too many models offered with their stickers still on. Rolex brand had taken some hits. I think this is part of why they bought Bucherer. They need to get this under control.

@Cloud_Ken 7 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579isn't that good for the watch market in the longer term?

@JL-rd9bq 7 ай бұрын

Love it!

@SPQR-Z 3 ай бұрын

The rumors of Rolex’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. Again. Good to see the flushing out of the secondary dealers and flippers. This desperately needed to happen. Agree that Rolex prices have been adjusting down and we probably haven’t seen the bottom but this is just a normal cycle in the Luxury watch market based on simple economics. Free stimie money, lockdowns, payment moratoriums, watches peddled as investments, inventory shortages etc. Everything goes in cycles and sometimes the perfect conditions for a bubble align and that’s what fueled the latest Watch Boom. Now the perfect Storm has aligned the conditions for a large correction. This is a good buying opportunity forming and those sitting on the side lines with cash will be the winners. The market and prices will come back eventually. Rolex will still be Rolex and 10 years from now you’ll be glad you bought this dip.

@jamesfreeman7954 7 ай бұрын

Id rather save for a trip to Japan.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

I would love to go there! I love ramen haha. Would totally try out their best shops.

@mathk1967 7 ай бұрын

Agree that prices will keep falling, so for me there is definitely no rush to buy right now. Keep on your great videos and great market analysis work ! I enjoy watching !

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Thank you! Next will definitely be a better time to buy!

@carloslargaespada6051 2 ай бұрын

I'm still waiting for my first Rolex.And when I go and buy it hopefully I get a good price for it.Cause it's gonna be for me and i'm going to wear it and cherish it.

@mywatchjourney6579 2 ай бұрын

That's the way to do it. Never buy for profit, that's all gone now.

@idid1866 5 ай бұрын

The Irony...I've warned people for years; they just laughed and kept buying!

@stevereilly 7 ай бұрын

It will come back, it always does, as long as demand exceeds supply

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Demand is dropping fast. There was a time when you could buy a Rolex with a walk in, maybe even get a discount. Not any time soon, but prices will keep dropping.

@stevereilly 7 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 supply has definitely fallen, in the UK it's the price of finance, someone had to pay for all that printing of free money....

@keysersoze503 7 ай бұрын

Rolex prices got ridiculously high. Now is the correction as they say in the stock market.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

And it's about time!! Let's get back to sanity!

@kevinh5349 5 ай бұрын

When I can get a Huld for $15k again, I'll say things are getting back to normal.

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

It should happen with the new production arrives.

@pablozorro3507 7 ай бұрын

Hi, could not agree more with your analysis of the market crash in progress. Just an observation, the scale of the 6m Rolex price “crash” has a scale spread of $2,500 which is less than 10% which exaggerates the perception of a “cliff edge” drop. The trend is clear and will continue for the next year or more. The only winner is Rolex who will continue to see their production at list prices, and will continue to increase them 1-2 times per year because they can. We will therefore see resale prices below list once more for 98% of their models (Daytona + maybe GMT exceptions) 👍🏼

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

For me, the directionality of the trend is most important. We had people thinking Rolex would never drop. Maybe the other brands but not Rolex. Yes, I do expect most models to list below retail on the secondary market. It'll take time, but once the new production arrives, it'll put massive pressure on used prices. Expectations play a huge role in this.

@bcarr1752 6 ай бұрын

I think 85% of Rolex sells is just dealer to dealer swapping inventory

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

Yup, and that's part of the reason why watches are not moving. It wasn't organic demand. Not all of it.

@americantarmacker514 3 ай бұрын

I’m wanting to buy been waiting on the aD call I called a grey dealer yesterday for me a gmt 2 two tone the new one one and my brother said he want wanted the famous wembley and the grey dealer was insane he tried tacking on a extra 8 grand for the 2 watched I never even called him back meanwhile in England I saw it was like an extra 2 grand for the 2 watches crazy

@mywatchjourney6579 3 ай бұрын

Some dealers have been caught buying high and now they are trying to unload at ridiculous prices.

@jobervelasco8614 7 ай бұрын

Somehow missed you at Intersect. Hopefully we'll run into eachother at the next event.

@jackmcclary2136 7 ай бұрын

My wife and I pulled about 10 Intersect attendees, including Carl, to the Dog Haus around the corner for burgers, dawgs and brews. Wish we had spotted you so you could’ve joined us. Perhaps Thursday at the Car Kennel in Costa Mesa.

@jobervelasco8614 7 ай бұрын

@@jackmcclary2136 I'm not familiar with Car Kennel.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Noo! Wish we had a chance to chat. But yeah, what a fun event!

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Great seeing you on here Jack! Pls keep me posted on any events :-)

@1pwNz0mb13Z 6 ай бұрын

I was "allowed" to buy a rolex sub from an AD after the market started crashing. I found it wierd since i had no sales history with them. Furtunatly, after being on the waitliat long enough, i shook off the luster spell rolex had on me for their mass produced watches lol.

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

Did you decline the Sub?

@1pwNz0mb13Z 6 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 Yup, I lost interest in the brand and it wasn't worth the effort scalping it for just a few hundred bucks.

@bobb7918 5 ай бұрын

Waiting till next year. Rolex went up on their prices for 2024 though.

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

Yes, I believe the price hikes have already leaked.

@francinegallo4815 6 ай бұрын

Rolex,Rolex, Rolex, how are other brands that did not rise due to the hype that fell under the overpriced radar?

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

They are actually holding up better. For example, Omega and Cartier are losing much less value. I think Omega as a brand is actually up a bit.

@TJames69 7 ай бұрын

It’s funny what happens when real interest rates aren’t deeply negative 🤣

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

It's true the cost of credit is killing the market. And there's another factor that I'll discuss when I do an overall market update.

@DavidSmith-sy2bp 7 ай бұрын

I will pass on Rolex as it might not be long that I may actually be able to get a discounted OP from the AD . If Rolex doesn’t do this then I know people not the Banks still own their houses . Fingers crossed 🤞

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Agreed, retail is definitely the way to go! I recently got my blue dial OP from my AD. Love that thing!

@vdan2879 6 ай бұрын

Good. They've had it good for too long.

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

It's been a feast for them. With buyers chasing after them to buy a watch. But now, they have to chase us!

@todd344 7 ай бұрын

Sorry when you can put your name on a list for a Daytona and you tell him that you like to have a white dial or a black dial. You don't really care which one it is, and you walk out of the AD and 3 months later he calls you up and says. Are you interested in our black dial Daytona? And you say yes sure, and you're gonna pick it up at retail that means. The scammers are great market. Whatever we want to call them the games over. They gotta sell it for under retail because if they go over retail when I just go to NAD and get it from an A. D And have a 5 year warranty. And brand new sticker to everything and you can put all your scratches on it.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

The Daytona is still hard to get from the AD, but I would only buy at retail. Me supply will come to bring down the wait.

@desireless4092 7 ай бұрын

Good news for my grail - No date sub. I am thinking about a visit to my local AD, sadly the only one we have regarding Rolex. I am skeptic and honestly I really wanna spare me the embarrassment of going and asking to get signed in for a watch that is one of the basic Rolex ones. But it is what it is. I have 0 interest for Daytonas, GMT Masters etc. I just want my no date sub and be done with it. I will be perfectly satisfied. I also don't want to dance with these gray dealers clowns and pseudo businessmen sellers that right now are in full tryhard mode trying to sell subs and other Rolexes on a beefy price surplus. I can smell the desperation and I think it will be foolish to fall for their antics. Further more if Rolex... and I am almost 90% sure, raise the prices next Jan which is after about 2 months, the same pseudo pro businessmen will be in a curious and awkward situation where they REALLY have to charm people in order to sell at profit when the AD is selling at: more or less - same prices. My gut is telling me to be patient, wait a bit and be on the lookout. And patience after all is a virtue.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Very good comments. I totally agree that patience is key here. Next year will be better. And I love the Sub. I don't consider it basic at all. I think the other color bezels are gimmicks. Give me the classic James Bond sub, and I'm done 👍.

@cookingwithwatches 7 ай бұрын

Is this means that very soon we will be able to get Pepsi, stainless steel Daytona, OP41 with celebration dial, Day-date with emojis at retail price? I can’t wait for this to happen 👏

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

It'll take a while. Likely when the new production comes available.

@cookingwithwatches 7 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 and most likely it will get discontinued before the production is increased

@user-mr9yy3yf9q 7 ай бұрын

I predict Rolex will NEVER make enough Daytona watches to meet demand and they will always sell above retail on the gray market. Other models (aside from the iconic pieces) will certainly drop though.

@cookingwithwatches 7 ай бұрын

@@user-mr9yy3yf9q I agree. In your opinion how much more Daytona would fall?

@OhioVworld 6 ай бұрын

10.9K for a like new sea dweller red label. How long till I get it folks?

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

Are you on a wait-list? Trying multiple ADs?

@OhioVworld 6 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 already offered a new one. I declined-14.2 w/ taxes here.

@jimmylight4866 7 ай бұрын

When money cost 8% it will crash a lot of things. Rolex's, property, Etc.

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Boom! Yup, it just makes sense.

@jimmylight4866 7 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 Slow down in new home construction ripples to all the suppliers. Also slow down in all commercial projects. Soon there will be some great deals on property. My advice, hold cash and wait for the bargains! Love your video! It's reality check time people.

@skipstalforce 5 ай бұрын

every body knew Rolex was in a bubble, and all markets rise and fall. New prices are like athou below used retail aren't they? thats not good. and Ain't no body skippin town with my Gshock!🤣🤣

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

Hold on to that g shock .. it's getting desperate times lmao!

@KLucero22 7 ай бұрын

“Only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked” -Warren Buffet

@mywatchjourney6579 7 ай бұрын

Exactly! Hard times reveal the truth.

@springinfialta106 5 ай бұрын

Why anyone would buy a watch from a flexing grey market dealer is beyond understanding. The more the dealers flex, the higher their margins have to be to pay for the flex. There's less left over for me as a seller and more for me to pay as a buyer.

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

Exactly! It's a danger sign for me.

@aca2410 3 ай бұрын

And 2025 will see their new factory come online

@RussianSkiAmateurs 5 ай бұрын

Some grey dealers will go bust, but others will be buying the stock and getting bigger. 🤷‍♂️

@mywatchjourney6579 5 ай бұрын

Buying stock with what? They have major cash flow problems now that consignment is dead.

@RussianSkiAmateurs 5 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 I’m more optimistic about big players such as Luxury Bazaar. They do have jewelry side of business that brings cash flow and personal wealth that can help sustain the fall and buying off the wanna be watch dealers who are over their heads. We, the public, will get good deals, but all the coveted pieces wouldn’t be easily available, I have a feeling.

@combat87 6 ай бұрын

02:00 World War I did not broke out in 1916 ! WWI started 1914 and ended in 1918

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

What? I never said it did. That picture was taken in 1916.

@combat87 6 ай бұрын

@@mywatchjourney6579 its there my friend in 2:00 time stamp sorry :(

@oscarlopez-gc1pv 6 ай бұрын

Yes be careful buying Rolex from gray market at above Msrp they could keep going down in price but buying at Msrp from an authorized dealer it’s probably a safe bet unless it’s a solid gold Sky dweller or Day Date depending on configuration and if the money is needed and have to sell because well on such expensive watches the sales tax and the commission fee from the platform used to sell the watches is going to be very expensive because the solid gold watches are very expensive but if money is not needed and just hold on to just because of inflation over a decade or more you will always get your money back from a Rolex bought at Msrp from am authorized dealer and you get to wear the watches for free and make a little profit on stainless steel spots models at Msrp from authorized dealers very safe bet and so the Rolex insanity will continue

@mywatchjourney6579 6 ай бұрын

Agreed. Buying from the Rolex ad is a safe bet.