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Estonia-Russia relations are quite tense and complex today. Several recent major events and general geopolitical tensions have exacerbated this situation. The leading cause of this tension is the "Buoy", or "Buoy Crisis", on the border between the two countries. The Estonia-Russia border is 294 kilometers. Russians living in Estonia constitute 25% of the population. If we look at the numerical data; 330 thousand Russians live there. Russia unilaterally removed more than 20 buoys used as border markers in the Narva River. According to Estonia, this incident is provocative. Naturally, a statement is still expected from Russia, but it has not come yet. Recently, there have been some incidents of damage to Russian cemeteries in Estonia. Soviet-era monuments and graves in Estonia became targets after Russia invaded Ukraine. The government plans to remove approximately 322 monuments and graves from the Soviet era. Among those to be removed are gravestones and war memorials of Soviet soldiers. This decision sparked tensions among some local Russian communities and was condemned by the Russian government. In fact, there was controversy during the removal of some Soviet monuments in the city of Narva. These events drew the reaction of the local people and Russia.
The chances of Russian President Vladimir Putin attacking Estonia are currently low. However, Estonia and the other Baltic states, namely Latvia and Lithuania, continue to be prepared against potential threats from Russia. Since Estonia is already part of NATO, it has increased its security. NATO's principle of "An attack on one of us is an attack on all of us" is a collective defense mechanism. This naturally makes a significant contribution to the security of Estonia. Therefore, Russia's direct military attack on Estonia caused NATO to respond fully. This is a big risk for Russia. Russia has already allocated most of its military resources to this region due to the war in Ukraine. Therefore, it may launch a new military operation on another front, especially against a NATO member country. Very unlikely. Recent events in Estonia show us that Russia prefers to use hybrid warfare tactics rather than a direct military attack. These tactics include cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns and border provocations, for example, on Russia's border on the Narva River. Actions such as removing the signs are considered hybrid threats rather than a direct military strike. Different Western intelligence services agree on the likelihood of Russia attacking a NATO member within the next five to 10 years. However, a military attack is not expected in the near future.
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