SOUTH OSSETIA | What Does Russia Really Want?

Рет қаралды 150,760

Күн бұрын

In March 2022, Anatoly Bibilov, the leader of the Georgian breakaway territory of South Ossetia announced plans to hold a referendum on unification with Russia. However, by the end of the May, the planned vote had been called off following strong opposition from Moscow. However, the reasons for the Kremlin's objections aren't entirely clear. Certainly, the timing seemed ideal for annexation, especially as international attention was focused on Ukraine and Russia was already under extensive Western sanctions. So, what does Russia really want with South Ossetia?
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As the Soviet Union collapsed at the start of the 1990s, South Ossetia seized the opportunity to try to break away from Georgia. However, it was unable to achieve its goal of unification with neighbouring North Ossetia-Alania, lying across the Caucasus Mountains. Instead, Georgia repeatedly tried to retake the territory. This eventually came to a head in 2008 with the Five Day War between Georgia and the Russian Federation. In response, Moscow recognised South Ossetia - and Abkhazia, another breakaway territory - as an independent state; thus becoming South Ossetia's patron state. However, in the decade and a half since then, South Ossetians have shown little overt commitment to their statehood. Instead, repeated calls for a referendum on unification with North Ossetia within Russia have been rejected by Moscow. The question is why? While the situation certainly gives Russia leverage over Georgia, it appears more complex than this.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Introduction and Titles
41:06 South Ossetia-Russia: De Facto-Patron State Relations
2:08 Background to Georgia and South Ossetia
3:19 The Evolution of Ossetian Unity
4:21 South Ossetia and the End of the Soviet Union
5:29 The 2008 Russia-Georgia War
7:22 South Ossetia-Russia Relations
8:40 South Ossetia Unification Referendum
10:30 Was the Time Right to Annex South Ossetia?
11:52 Why Russia Opposed South Ossetian Annexation
13:17 Will Russia Annex South Ossetia?
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FURTHER READING & USEFUL SOURCES
South Ossetia MFA mfa.rsogov.org/en
IR South Ossetia / @user-zy2ni9bd8j
Georgia Ministry of Foreign Affairs mfa.gov.ge/Home.aspx?lang=en-US
RussiaSouth Ossetia Treaty on Alliance and Integration (2015)
kremlin-ru.translate.goog/sup...
Russia Recognises South Ossetia and Abkhazia (2008)
en.kremlin.ru/events/president...
South Ossetia Today carnegieeurope.eu/2019/06/11/...
Georgia: A Political History Since Independence amzn.to/3c2S000
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KEYWORDS
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Пікірлер: 786

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

This is a topic I have wanted to look at for ages. Even amongst de facto states, South Ossetia is a bit of an odd outlier. It really doesn't seem to want independence. Instead, it wants unification with North Ossetia, albeit within Russia. But Moscow keeps refusing. While there might seem to be an obvious answer why Russia refuses to annex it, the situation isn't quite as straightforward as it seems. So, what do YOU think Russia really wants with South Ossetia?

@Hoopsnake Жыл бұрын

I'd guess that Russia simply prefers frozen conflicts to resolved ones.

@berkosmansatiroglu Жыл бұрын

Mr. Putin, most people call him boss. He is stable and the same for many years. It's not surprising to me. Poland and Moldova are next.

@paulstephen3257 Жыл бұрын

Excellent video as always professor. Speaking of former soviet states, it would be very interesting to have a video about the so called union state between Russia and Belarus and whether Lukashenko is going to be pressured into further integrating with Russia. Do you think his renewed threats towards Ukraine in the last couple of weeks are indications that he is being pressured to join the conflict?

@historyking9984 Жыл бұрын

I think they don’t want to have to focus on too much at the same time. They can always have south ossetia but they don’t want issues with Georgia right now . Also are you going to do a video on the recent assassination of former Japanese Prime minister Abe that happened today. I mean he was japans longest prime minister and was killed at a campaign rally. What does this hold for the campaign for Japans upper house and how will it change the elections and Japanese politics? What will his legacy be ?

@Adam-pu6jg Жыл бұрын

It's not what putin wants with South Ossetia, it's what putin wants with Georgia that is the main issue. 1. Keep Georgia out of NATO: a criteria for NATO membership is settled borders. If putin annexes South Ossetia, he really has to annexe Abkhazia. With any potential settling of the Russo-Georgian border, Georgia may well then be free to join NATO. 2. putin wants to annexe Georgia itself: the Russians have actually been sneakily moving the barbed wire fence separating Georgia from South Ossetia southwards towards Tbilisi. The same situation exists in Moldova with Transnistria, it seems putin wants to use Transnistrians and Gagauzians (along with pro putin Moldovans) as model minorities to rule over an annexed Moldova, the same plan for Georgia, annexe Georgia and it's ruled over by South Ossetians, Abkhazians, Armenians, Adjaris, as well as pro putin Georgians, even if between them they don't constitute a majority of the overall population, that coalition would be sizable enough, along with russian internal security troops, to subdue Georgia

@mr.coolmug3181 Жыл бұрын

Russia supports semi-break-away states like Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia, because it means Moldova and Georgia have territorial disputes, which keeps them out of NATO.

@neilrmartin1984 Жыл бұрын

Agreed, although increasingly I think Russia sees the EU as a bigger threat than NATO. Also, as the video aludes to its support to these non states can be intermittent at best. I'm not so familiar with the Caucasus, but I know that Transnistria has struggled for years to get sufficient budget support from Russia

@LC-uh8if Жыл бұрын

Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia have been supported by Russia pretty much since the USSR fell in 1991. I think Russia has kinda put itself in a situation it can't really get out of in these regions. If they abandon them, that will make Russia look unreliable to regions it wants to eventually annex. If they fully annex them, that brings international issues without any real benefit to Russia. For now, though, keeping them in this frozen state keeps Moldova and Georgia out of NATO so while that may not have been the original intention, its certainly a factor now.

@jacqdanieles Жыл бұрын

But those same territorial disputes meant that Ukraine could not join either. A fact that Kremlin apologists like John Mearsheimer neglect to mention while making the case that the west was "poking the bear".

@user-cx9nc4pj8w Жыл бұрын

@@jacqdanieles Those people are so annoying, but what's even more important is that Russia can end the world with it's nuclear arsenal, so it doesn't have any reason to fear military threats. But that's what it was doing in Donbass, until Putin became even more fascist and decided that all Eastern Europeans must suffer his rule, which is worryingly popular inside Russia.

@RobBCactive Жыл бұрын

Putin wasn't interested in diplomacy to guarantee Ukraine would not be in NATO to avert war. The claims of NATO aggression are for propaganda, blowing anti-western smoke internationally and stoking paranoia at home to justify increases repression. The fact is it was west Ukrainians revolt against Putin's Eurasian Union alternative to the EU which triggered the annexation of Crimea and the instigation of the insurgent regions in the Donbas. Ukraine had a neutrality law in place, had previously revolted against rigged elections, so was clearly rejecting Putin Overall Putin's followed a strategy laid out in a book, creating instability to try to rebuild the Russian empire, rather than peacefully accepting independent states. The Russian regime is motivated by appropriating wealth and power, not the betterment of the lives of their subjects.

@SogaardReedWriter Жыл бұрын

The breakaway states are used to influence Georgia politically and economically, stopping Georgia from drifting westward. In order for a country to become part of the EU, they need to have full legal control over their territory. As is the case with Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova. If Russia takes South Ossetia, they would likely also need to do the same with Abkhazia. The question is if Georgia would recognize this as legal or not? If so, they would then be able to seek their EU goal lawfully. Allowing these regions to be a thorn in the side of Tbilisi is far more advantageous than annexation.

@delfinenteddyson9865 Жыл бұрын

Didn't Cyprus become EU member eventhough half of it is occupied?

@SogaardReedWriter Жыл бұрын

@@delfinenteddyson9865 Interesting, I didn't realize that! I may have been confusing that territorial law in the case of NATO, as Cyprus is not part of NATO, but I would love an explanation in the case of Cyprus and the EU.

@JL18LAZOR Жыл бұрын

@@SogaardReedWriter for example Serbia is going to join the EU in a few years without controlling the land of Kosovo, despite the EU's point of view about that dispute (since some EU nations don't recognize Kosovo)

@behroozkhaleghirad Жыл бұрын

NATO requires the same standards and that's even more important for Russia. Who cares about 50k people who produce lemons. Russia doesn't need that. Russia needs them to stop Georgia to be eligible to enter NATO and EU

@bilic8094 Жыл бұрын

@@JL18LAZOR Serbia is never joining the EU not in 10 years or 50.

@Pizzonia295 Жыл бұрын

Few additional points: - Current Georgian government plays much more balanced game with Russia, recognizing so called SO would undermine this. While status quo basically keeps pressure on Georgia. - You ignored ethnic cleansing part. There were significant Georgian population on the territory, which was forced to move out.

@sydneypsycho Жыл бұрын

What's your reply on this fake professor? Ignoring ethnic cleaning?

@aleksandercirilkozar2769 Жыл бұрын

There are 2 factors involved here, 1, Russia already has ever benefit the S.Ossttia has to offer without any costs, and 2, a united Ossetia within Russian federation would start to develop entirely new aspirations. A divided nation is easier to rule over than a unified one.

@MrTeniguafez Жыл бұрын

One thing that you touched on, but didn't explore in depth, is the political situation in Georgia. While you're right that the populace has increasingly looked west, PM Gharibashvili's government has actually toed the Moscow line for the most part. It's refused to place sanctions on Russia in the aftermath of the invasion, for instance -- which has not endeared Gharibashvili to the Georgian public. His government is facing massive protests over the issue and anti-Russian sentiment is at a high probably not seen since 2008. Given this, it's likely Putin and the Moscow elite want to avoid further endangering Gharibashvili's position. Outright annexing South Ossetia could potentially, even probably, be the final straw that leads to the PM's ouster, and if he is removed, he'd likely be replaced by a fervently pro-EU, anti-Russian government. With Russian forces tied up in the Ukraine fiasco, it would be the opportune time for the new Georgian leadership to attempt to retake its breakaway territories by force, and it's not clear Russia would have the means to stop it without endangering their war effort in Ukraine.

@whitelilycalla Жыл бұрын

A fiasco in ukraine?! Russia has not even started there. Using only 10% of the Russian military forces, there will not be any issue for Russia to show to Georgia or to anyone else where they belong.. 😉

@MrTeniguafez Жыл бұрын

@@whitelilycalla Yeah I'm sure. Any day now

@Spacemongerr Жыл бұрын

Thanks for the information

@noureddine3648 Жыл бұрын

retaking the 2 regions by force is HUGE gamble even for a pro-western politician in georgia , especially post 2008 , also remember while they seem like an easy target now and it is tempting to do it now , there's a real possibility that Ukraine will accept a ceasfire even without a peace deal if they lose sloviansk-kramatorsk ( = all of donbass ) , then georgia will be extremly vulnerable with russia lazer focused on them .

@whitelilycalla Жыл бұрын

@@MrTeniguafez I am sure too🤪

@giorgitavartkiladze4829 Жыл бұрын

There is one very important remark. There was not such an entity as South Ossetia originaly. Even though the region was partly inhabited by ethnic Ossetians, the dominant population were Georgians (in the Tkhinvali, the regional capital as well). Ossetian people always lived and had a political entity in Northern Caucasus, while they never had it South, as much as this Territory was always into either Georgian Kingdom of Princedom. Many Ossetians, as well as other nationalities lived in Georgian soil for centuries, like Kists for example, but they never claimed territory as theirs beacuase the Russians could not ignite unjust separatism in them. Having said that, It shall be noted that "South Ossetia" is a Russian created term, which untill late 19th century was called Inner Kartli, an oldest Georgian province, which is corraborated by 100% of historical accounts, churches, archeology and ethnography. Also, it was not a South Ossetian uprising in Early 20th century, but a rebellion of Komunist Ossetians, who were instigated by Kremlin.

@nickmacarius3012 Жыл бұрын

Russia is already getting what it needs out of Abkhazia & South Ossetia. As long as Georgia has a territorial dispute they won't be allow to join the EU nor NATO. Moreover, South Ossetia allows for Russia to be within an arms reach of the CTB pipeline.

@davidtindell950 Жыл бұрын

Thank You. As others have commented, by not proceeding with S.O. annexation, the Kremlin makes it difficult for Georgia to join NATO and Russia keeps the "West" guessing. Also, there are probably individuals that are obscenely wealthy because of the current situation and these "mini-oligarchs" want to maintain the status quo and their own obscene debauchery.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thank David. I know what you mean. But technically it would make no difference if Russia annexed it. Under international law, such a move would be illegal. NATO and the rest of the world (except for a few outliers) wouldn't accept that loss. In that sense, Georgia would still have a territorial dispute. It would just mean that the prospect of ever settling it had become less likely. But in essence one could argue that little would have changed. Georgia is blocked either way.

@knowthesigns8340 Жыл бұрын

This comment is not to disagree per say because your points are valid. As a child of a Georgian mother I can speak to this. Putin I believe is taking the long view. First off South Ossetia and Abkhazia are Georgian in background. Yes they have a slightly different ethnic and culture makeup, language but they are similar peoples with minor differences and should be able to live together in harmony. With this in mind, from Russia perspective accepting South Ossetia would certainly push Georgia under the current political regime and the population to increase the desire to join nato (even though there would be a majority that majority would not be overwhelming in my view). Putin is hoping to cause a leadership change in Georgia, which I believe is inevitable. If you watch Georgian media there is a 50 50 divide between those that wants to align with the EU and USA and those that want to be aligned with Russia. Of course no one even thoses that want to align with Russia is not to push for “recreation of the Soviet Union” per say but having an alliances with Russia that is at least not adversarial toward Russia or it’s interests and at best a net benefit to Georgia and growing itself while not sacrificing its unique culture makeup to a much more bureaucratic organization like the EU which will be Georgia’s undoing if it joins. It’s one thing to be an independent state but it’s another to be independent and hostile towards its much larger neighbor and Georgia would be best serve to toe this line while focusing on improving itself without being influence by the EU or USA which is already causing more chaos then stability for its future. Georgia like the rest of the world has to strike a balance. Of course the Soviet Union came undone because it was unbalanced, overly repressive and highly bureaucratic and not lead properly. That said there are many aspect of live in the Soviet Union that were worth preserving and unfortunately the time in which the breakup occurred these aspect were never considered in any meaningful way. Quite frankly the same can be said for today’s leaders in the west. It all comes down to leaders that are wise that are skilled and that can gain the respect of people’s are the world to do one thing; encourage peace and stability. I believe it was Napoleon, ironically of all historical figures whom said that I paraphrase “To GAIN power, one sometimes has to display absolute pettiness to achieve. To EXERCISE power effectively, one has to display true greatness.” Using this quotation as a benchmark, the world is sadly in short supply of such individual that are beyond the here and now and see the eyes through the people that are responsible for. If we had those leaders our defense industries would be out of work and countries like Ukraine would not have to sacrifice its best and brightest to enriched there greedy coffers.

@davidtindell950 Жыл бұрын

@@knowthesigns8340 I hope Putin has a shorter Lifespan but with infinite Wealth he could live long. ... Good Luck to You and to Us All. ...

@MWENDA-vv5im Жыл бұрын

The vote will takes place after the conflict in Ukraine ends or stops being too involving for Russia. Those who think that Russia annexing South Ossetia will allow Georgia to join NATO are so wrong. For one, Georgia will have to recognize South Ossetia's sovereignty and that will never happen. Same goes for Abkhazia. Russia annexing South Ossetia changes nothing. BTW, Abkhazia has already made it clear that it has no interest whatsoever to join the Russian Federation.

@vshioshvili Жыл бұрын

At minute 6, the video shows“overwhelming” result of 99% supporting independence in 2006 referendum, but that claim seems a bit odd given that until the 2008 war, the territory within the administrative boundary of the so-called “South Ossetia” was a patchwork of Ossetian and Georgian villages, where Ossetians overall definitely did not represent a majority. Throughout the whole video, actually, there is little to no mention that it is territory that had mixed population, and that ethnic Georgians were expelled/forced to leave. And all the houses razed to erase every trace of them ever living there. 99% of what population actually voted for this independence? If 100 people in Tskhinvali decided to vote and 99 of them said we want independence, would that be considered a valid referendum? These referendums on statehood are always overwhelming in their outcomes, but never clear about the number of people who participated and who and why were excluded from participation. While overall this video might seems well informed and objective, I have to say, it tries to do a rough summation of a complex subject, and is not doing a great job. There are many intricacies that are being left out that would make a listener come to conclusions that are not exactly correct.

@giodanisi7559 Жыл бұрын

I agree, however the same could be said with the various referenda that are at the base of the formation of indipendent countries out of Soviet Union (or simply declaration of indipendence without referenda). Have the population of Abkazia, South Ossezia, Crimea, Donbass, Transnistria been consulted of they wanted to be part of Moldavia, Georgia, Ukraine or they maybe preferred given their Russian ties, to not join the new forming countries? That is were everything has been originated.

@GXM1210 Жыл бұрын

The reason why it wasn't integrated is because they want Georgia in some form in their orbit. Integrating would put Georgia on permanent anti-Russian stance.

@powasjington4262 Жыл бұрын

Does anyone remember that guy Zangief from Street Fighter? He was Ossetian or based on a real guy who was Ossetian.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Haha! Brilliant. You are right. As someone who spent more than his fair share playing Street Fighter in my last years at school, I really appreciated that random factoid. Thanks. :-)

@logan1769 Жыл бұрын

Yes! I recently started reading about South Oessetia and was thinking of recommending the topic to you. You’re always one step ahead haha

@ikaika4290 Жыл бұрын

Thank you for bringing this topic about Georgia to discussion

@profesor1992able Жыл бұрын

As always amazing dear Professor. The current events in Republic of Karakalpakstan, an autonomous republic in Uzbekistan is worth covering I believe.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks so much Albert. Great suggestion. It is one of two topics I really want to cover next week. I haven’t quite decided yet. I hope all else is well with you. Very warmest regards, as ever. :-)

@beezelsub Жыл бұрын

Oh, that's real.

@nielsreyngoud2870 Жыл бұрын

Extremely interesting video! Thank you for the research. South Ossetia indeed seems to be the odd one out in the list of de facto states such as Abkhazia and Pridnestrovia. I wonder what we will learn about this in the future.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks a lot Niels. You are absolutely right. I really is the odd one out in many ways.

@funhausfunhaus.. Жыл бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay Doctor Ker-Lindsay, great video, but I'm wondering why isn't Abkhazia also an "odd one out"? In my mind they look like two birds of a feather, holes in the map of Georgia that are twin prongs of Russia's strategy to destabilize the country. What is going on in Abkhazia, and what makes it a "normal" breakaway state (insofar as these entities can be "normal")?

@FredoRockwell Жыл бұрын

A great deep dive into one of my favourite topics! And I learned so much! For example, I read that Moscow did not support Gagloev in the election, but it sounds here like they did (or they supported his position on the referendum at least - by the way, he seems like someone with a colourful past from what I've read). Whatever their reason, I'm really glad that Russia isn't anxious to annex South Ossetia anytime soon. It would undoubtedly stoke tensions with Georgia, and considering how weird Russia's sense of nationalism has become who knows what that could lead to.... Thanks again!

@Bdog40 Жыл бұрын

Hey I know you. You're the guy with shitty geopolitical takes that promote western liberal American hegemony.

@victordandanell9741 Жыл бұрын

Brilliant work! Looking forward to more of your videos.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks so much Victor. I really appreciate it.

@gigachaduneli1121 Жыл бұрын

Interesting explanation. I want to make some corrections about its history. South Ossetia term dates back from 19th century when ossetian people started their migration in georgia. Region that is today south ossetia is known as shida kartli region among georgians. What i am saying that "two ossetias" never were united and throughout history it belonged to georgia. Even after russian empire anexed georgia south ossetia remained part of georgia. They were never divided by 1917 revolution.

@Mypromiselive Жыл бұрын

That was a great video, you covered the topic perfectly

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thank you so much! This was a topic that I had wanted to do for ages. In fact, I had been meaning to cover it since I started the channel. I also hope to look at Abkhazia at some point.

@jeanpascaud4218 Жыл бұрын

Thank you VERY VERY much for the english subtitles. Because i dont understand the vocal english. Your contribution is also instructive. best regards from Paris.

@upirrr Жыл бұрын

awesome and balanced view on this conflict, thank you

@qwemp Жыл бұрын

Of all of the channels on KZfaq, yours deserves to climb the algorithm.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thank you very much!! :-)

@compassrise Жыл бұрын

Ukraine could not join NATO (at least in part) because of the border disputes "imposed" by Russia in 2014. Might Putin intend to restrict Georgia's chances by refusing to eliminate a disputed border?

@mikaels6009 Жыл бұрын

Imposed by the illegal coupe that ousted a democratic elected president which caused a uprising in Easter Ukraine and Russia entering the ring.

@learning7140 Жыл бұрын

There's no disputed border on Russia's side, only on Georgia's side. If Georgia recognizes those regions as independent, it can apply to NATO. I'm sure the USA will get around to it with the Georgian government at some point.

@compassrise Жыл бұрын

@@mikaels6009 You Poootinistas are such LIARS!

@gaga7755 Жыл бұрын

As a Georgian, I can say that actually Russia does not need to annex Samachablo(so-called South Ossetia). Russia has been using it to make influence on Georgia's foreign affairs, especially its western aspiration. Russia recognized Abkhazia and "south ossetia" in 2008 to top off Georgian government, who had a clear pro-western course. Now, current Georgian government has been considering some interests of Russia in the region, so they don't want to change this status-quo, they have made in relationship with Georgia. Russia is like: I would not annex your territories, unless you behave 'badly'. On the other hand, couple of weeks ago EU granted candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, but not to Georgia despite the fact that, it is not behind to these countries by criterias they have considered while making a decision. This strained the relationship between the Georgian government and the European leadership, as the Georgian authorities began to wage anti-Western propaganda through its own media. I think European policymakers might have considered this option. It might push Georgia back to Russian political influence. Russia is an existential threat for not only Georgian sovereignity, but for our national identity as a whole. That's why we have been trying to find an ally in west, not since the dissolusion of USSR, but since the fall of constantinople back to 1453, when Georgia have been cut off from European Civilisation. I want to believe that the West would not sacrifice us to the Russia.

@suspendedtwice4sayingrasis261 Жыл бұрын

The EU hasn't received Turkey, so it's not like they're going to let Georgia in, a rather far away state from any other European nation. Unfortunately, I think until Turkey sets itself in order and stop being totalitarian and unsecular, Georgia can't even consider joining the EU.

@gaga7755 Жыл бұрын

@Anonymous Bosch 😀 Communists had no nationality. Stalin was such a Georgian as I am Japanese.

@behroozkhaleghirad Жыл бұрын

I'm Iranian and Russia has annexed our territory before. Georgia used to be a part of Iran but Russia took it. All I can say is that it's very unfortunate to be a small country right next to any major/super power. Unfortunately Georgia simply cannot choose for itself, Russia won't allow it. And believe me West will willingly sacrifice you to Russia if their interests are met. You are stuck between a rock and a hard place, you must "balance" your foreign policy to such an extent that you don't become a Russian puppet or get annexed by them. Far from perfect but the only practical solution

@behroozkhaleghirad Жыл бұрын

@Anonymous Bosch no

@whitelilycalla Жыл бұрын

@Anonymous Bosch great call, brother!👍👍👍

@rymoe6299 Жыл бұрын

Really enjoyed this video Presented like a Pro!

@dainomite Жыл бұрын

I’ve been waiting for this episode for so long! Thanks James! It is fascinating that South Ossetia didn’t exist as a state (autonomous or not) until the USSR created it out of thin air in 1921. It seems to me like they did it after the Soviet-Georgian War to maintain internal strife within the Georgia SSR.

@dainomite Жыл бұрын

@@airdrop184 there literally was no state, autonomous region, or even an administrative division of any kind for “South Ossetia” until the USSR created it in 1921. Not under the short lived Georgian republic (1918-1921), the Tiflis Governorate (1846-1917), the Georgia-Imeretia Governorate (1840-1864), Georgian Governorate (1801-1840), or going further back. The North Caucasus was split up into various Oblasts and Okrugs within the Caucasus Viceroyalty (which also had the aforementioned 3 Georgian Governorates under their umbrella)

@sababugs1125 Жыл бұрын

@@airdrop184 name 1 king of South Ossetia I can name multiple of the kingdom of Georgia David IV Bagrat III Tamar Etc Etc

@johndewey6358 Жыл бұрын

@@airdrop184 Are you suggesting that people do not have a right to self rule? The Ossetians, Alans and many other caucuses people have existed for millennia before there was a phony entity like Russia or USSR.

@johndewey6358 Жыл бұрын

@sababugs1125 Жыл бұрын

@@airdrop184 ok then explain why south ossetian cities since the beginning of time have had Georgian names ?

@_5_675 Жыл бұрын

Very interesting thanks. Nice lighting.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thank you very much! :-)

@FlyingGospel Жыл бұрын

I love you professor! Much underrated channel. May you thrive and drown in cash for all the hard work you do for us loyal and passionate fans!

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Maybe one day! :-) Seriously, thanks a lot for the support. I really appreciate it enormously. Have a great weekend!

@Behemoth29 Жыл бұрын

Great video!

@Asamations Жыл бұрын

I never even heard about this until you made a video on it. Thanks James! My belief is that, Russia refused to annex it, as the country already has a lot of heat on it due to the Ukraine War, but also so as to use it as a bargaining chip against the Georgians.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks Asa. It really has taken me too long to get round to this topic. Seriously, it’s been on my to-do list since starting the channel! I actually wrote a book about how states prevent breakaway territories from being recognised. The three cases I looked at were Cyprus (TRNC), Serbia (Kosovo), and Georgia (South Ossetia and Abkhazia). global.oup.com/academic/product/the-foreign-policy-of-counter-secession-9780199698394?cc=ro&lang=en& This is such an interesting story. And very different from Abkhazia.

@kw2142 Жыл бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay ah damn that looks like an interesting book, altho so damn expensive! Academic books tend to be! Any discounts available?

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

@@kw2142 Thanks. Sorry about that. I didn’t put it there in the hope that anyone would want to buy it. It was more to show I’d done done work on this issue in the past. Sadly, academic books are shockingly expensive. (Although my next book, which will be published soon, will be very affordable, I promise. 😉😄) global.oup.com/academic/product/secession-and-state-creation-9780190494049?lang=en&cc=ro

@mesamies123 Жыл бұрын

Excellent, and you are correct, Professor: there is more to Russia's 'rejection'--if I understand this thorough, intelligent talk. Thank you.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks so much. It is one of those really interesting situations where you know that there is a lot behind the story, but it is unclear what. Apparently, even in the Kremlin there are disputes about what to do; with hawks calling for annexation and the more dovish speaking against it.

@bartvissers4682 Жыл бұрын

Your channel is a gem on youtube.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thank you very much indeed! :-)

@peterkops6431 Жыл бұрын

Thanks Prof 👍🏻👍🏻

@mouniash Жыл бұрын

I think the status quo whereby South Ossetia is a defacto part of Russia is more favorable to Russia than formal annexation. Like you said there are no big domestic political dividends for doing so since the region isnt populated by ethnic Russians and doesn't have any special historical significance to Russia. And also formal annexation would ruin relations with Georgia which are at the moment are OK. Georgia hasn't imposed sanctions on Russia and is in fact being used as a platform to circumvent certain banking sanctions.

@mathewvanostin7118 Жыл бұрын

Also those 2 states isnt of big economic value. They would basicaly have to welfare sponsor it 😂 If it was azerbajan or kazakastan. They would be happy to annex it asap 😂

@disagovsky Жыл бұрын

@@mathewvanostin7118 There is a difference between talking about facts and about things you just ASSUME or THINK.

@euroasiabtlimited3208 Жыл бұрын

Excellent article .

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thank you so much. Really appreciated!

@avantelvsitania3359 Жыл бұрын

While South Ossetia and Abkhazia May seem two examples of unrecognized States, they have a great distinction between them and in their formation. And this difference can made difficult any future settlement with Georgia. On one side, the Abkhaz are natives to Abkhazia. They are the indigenous people of the region and while through the centuries Georgia has expanded it’s State along the coast, the inhabitants north of the Ghalidzga river were always the Abkhaz. So in basis of self-determination, the Abkhaz should have their sovereig State on their indigenous land. But Georgia should receive back the Gali district, south of the Ghalidzga, inhabited to this day by native Mingrelians/Georgians. South Ossetia on the other hand is more complicated. Unlike the Abkhaz Ossetians are not indigenous to the South Caucasus. They only started migrating across the mountains by pressure of Circassians in the XVII century, but even then the territory settled by them was relatively small. It was only during the XIX century that they expanded roughly to the present borders of South Ossetia. But the original, native, inhabitants of that region South of the Caucasus were always Georgians. There were Georgians there for centuries much before the Ossetian migrations. So Georgia would have trouble in recognizing the independence of its native territory. But we cannot ignore that the Ossetians live there today. It’s a complicated issue. This difference between Abkhazia and South Ossetia could also be seen with the issue of the referendum. South Ossetia is ready to give up its sovereignty. But Abkhazia, while heavily dependent on Russia, always avoided effective integration with the Federation. For them Russia is an ally to get independence from Georgia, not a substitute overlord.

@karfomachet7265 Жыл бұрын

South Ossetia was not the only region of the sth Caucasus settled by Ossetians , the trialeti region was all so an Ossetian majority area and the Sth Ossetians had in fact wanted it included in the Sth Ossetia autonomy as an exclave . Georgia has since depopulated this area of ethnic Ossetians because they fear that if the ethnic Armenians in Javakheti were all so to leave Georgia the Trialeti Ossetians and the sth Ossetians could then cut Georgia in half .

@stephenarbon2227 Жыл бұрын

I remember reading in the history of the Alans, that some went across the mountains to help stop the Muslim invasion, that would I presume was before the crusades and they stayed in the South.

@rayian536 Жыл бұрын

It is a substitute overlord in the end tho. And the Abkhaz themselves know this. If the West were to guarantee Abkhazia's indep they would drop down Russia in an instant.

@takogogokhia2625 Жыл бұрын

there is no excised osetia !! real name is Sanachablo!🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪 historical Georgian land !🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪

@Maleficarum999 Жыл бұрын

Looking to a Georgia as an overlord is a bit off remark. Georgia is the only country in the Caucasus region (I'm also counting North Caucasian republics) that's not an effective ethnostate, and all minorities have representatives, it's not an empire that gets directive from Tbilisi and they have no voice in it. Adjara even has an elevated status as Autonomous Republic and has it's own executive and legislative branch, same status is also envisioned for Abkhazia in Georgian constitution, in fact unification of Georgia will trigger a series of government overhaul, parliament becomes bicameral where Adjara and Abkhazia will have permanent guaranteed representation in senate (upper chamber). So treating Georgia as a potential overlord is just not fair, it has made more than enough concessions to Abkhazia, disregarding right to return for 300,000 internally displaced Georgians is not up to negotiations.

@kingsleyunogaozirigbo8901 Жыл бұрын

Well spoken Sir

@salec7592 Жыл бұрын

It seems that wish for unification of Ossetia is the drive behind South Ossetian separatism. Russia handing South Ossetia back to Georgia could spawn separatism of North Ossetia - within Russia's own borders. However, once the people of Ossetia is united, they might as well want their full independence, whichever nation they end up in. So, in a way, keeping the problem open for indefinite time is keeping North Ossetia within Russia?

@yellowwasprakija2869 Жыл бұрын

Professor James, with both Juz Ossetia and Abkhazia, what is the energy situation/where are gas pipelines? That might be useful in understanding different goals

@kelvinbenny2001 Жыл бұрын

Thank you Professor

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks!

@kw2142 Жыл бұрын

great video! I await your video on Abkhazia! lol also liked your video on Romania/moldova, would be cool to explore the potential break away region of Gaugazia also in more detail

@larrylaidlaw1869 Жыл бұрын

Thanks!

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thank you so much Larry. I am so incredibly sorry that I didn't reply sooner. You must think I am very rude. My sincerest apologies. I tend to use the KZfaq app during the day and this doesn't highlight Super Thanks. (A terrible omission by KZfaq.) That really was very kind of you. And truly appreciated.

@kashmirha Жыл бұрын

it’s pretty simple. If south osetia became russia, they lose all their bargain chips on Georgia, can not block their NATO membership, and e integration, and they have nothing positive having a new region, since russia is already way way too big to normally govern in a russian style. I mean tou can govern but the tensions are increasing in every parts.

@cinemaipswich4636 Жыл бұрын

Putin's usually uses "Russian Speaking" people, when it come to Ukraine. This not the case for South Ossetia. Perhaps the leaders there think that their lives will prosper under Russian patronage, but Russia does not want the financial burden that would occur if a union takes place.

@giorgim4185 Жыл бұрын

You forgot to mention almost all of the georgians who lived in this regions and represented maijority were expeled by russians, only people left in region were russian loyalists or russian solders and there families. Thus saying how 99% of population supported independence/unification with russia is misleading. As for the why they woudn't just annex there breakway regions are one it would make supporting other independence movements harder (it's hard to convince minority people they should fight for independence) if last guys you promised that was officiali annexed. Second reason is these maintenece of this regions cost a money and if it was to integrate into russian federation proper welfare cost would increase too

@SandroS123 Жыл бұрын

Mec qartveli var lmao

@merocaine Жыл бұрын

Cashing in the Ossetian chip now will not gain Russia much, best to keep it in the back pocket for now. As you said it would be a useful bargaining chip with Georgia down the line. Perhaps the Russians could insert it into Georgia in some kind of federal deal which would give South Ossetia some kind of autonomy, but allow Russia to expand its influence in Georgia itself. Political realities change, perhaps South Ossetia could lead to a raprochment between Georgia and Russia down the line.

@pax6833 Жыл бұрын

Same reason Mongolia never became part of the USSR despite petitioning the USSR many times. It was more useful as a bargaining chip to China.

@merocaine Жыл бұрын

@@pax6833 I never knew that, I'll have to read up on it, thanks.

@giorgim4185 Жыл бұрын

Someting like autonumus region with the power to veto any anti russian law

@lioneldemun6033 Жыл бұрын

Your comment is a tad cynical. And the wishes of the locals ? It's ( or it should be) the essential factor here.

@lioneldemun6033 Жыл бұрын

@@pax6833 If my country (F) was in the position of Russia there would be no " bargaining chips" policy.Mongolia would have been swallowed.F as an imperialist colonialist power has always tried to expand itself by all means in the course of her history.That ' s the reason why it is still up to now the biggest Western European country in terms of size.

@sae136 Жыл бұрын

South Ossetia and Abkhazia is Georgia

@rpgbb Жыл бұрын

I was in Georgia in Autumn 1991 before the Civil War. The hotel only offered vodka and caviar. Really beautiful place. Abkhazia coast is particularly magical. Pity can’t go there that easily. My mother lived in Moscow back in the 1980s, according her, the Soviet Union was a giant with sand feet. She says now the same about the USA… It makes me wonder, considering the mess and conflicts that still the fall of the Soviet Union left, was there a way for the Union to keep existing in some way? Or was already condemned by 1924? With hindsight, the founder of the CHEKA, Felix Dzerzhinsky was somehow right. He opposed the creation of Soviet Republics. Any thoughts? It might be that reform and some compromises are more useful than revolution and chaos. Take for example Yugoslavia, they were in talks with the EEC back in the 1980s. Could they had found some arrangements? I think the issues of the collapse of the Soviet Union are still important, not only because of the mess in Ukraine but for future questions like for China if the CCP collapses, for Nigeria, Spain, Iraq and even for the European Union

@gsb5859 Жыл бұрын

Hi Professor, not sure whether this is the right place to ask; have you read a book called The 40 Days of Musa Dagh? If not, I’d recommend it, I’m sure you’ll enjoy it, it is a slog though.

@zaurgamkrelidze1064 Жыл бұрын

The analysis was quite shallow. There have never been two Ossetias, the so called "South Ossetia" always was a historic georgian land populated by ethnic georgians. Ossetians only showed up from the 17th century, they crossed the mountains and started working for georgian landlords, then they settled in few villages. "South Ossetia" is yet another artificial ethnic conflict created by Soviet Union in order to divide and control the states they annexed. Georgians have no problems with Ossetians or any other minority living within its borders, if there was no Russian factor we would live peacefully together. Russia uses both Abkhazia and "South Ossetia" to blackmail Georgia and keep its integration with west under control. They have no other interest with these territories, let alone, they definitely don't worry about their living standards

@jackburgess8579 Жыл бұрын

>>""South Ossetia" is yet another artificial ethnic conflict created by Soviet Union" Obviously not, since South Ossetia wants to be assimilated into the Russian Federation.

@zaurgamkrelidze1064 Жыл бұрын

@@jackburgess8579 after years of Russian brainwashing they think we are their enemies and we want to kill them which is a lie. Even now when the war began in Ukraine, they had fears we were about to go to Tskinvali with tanks, I have not even heard an idea of such plan in Georgia, Bibilov came out of the referendum idea based on that fear. Minorities have no problems in Georgia, there are regions populated by ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis and the government cares about them just like any other citizen. Georgians consider Ossetians and Apkhaz people as their brothers and if there were no Russian military bases in those regions all the conflict would be sorted out within months without a single gunshot.

@zaurgamkrelidze1064 Жыл бұрын

Nor Abkhazi neither Ossetian people were ethnic majority in these regions when the conflict started. With Russian help they carried out an ethnic cleansing of Georgians, more than 300 000 people had to leave their homes.

@tiitsaul9036 Жыл бұрын

Thanks

@Sebajstard Жыл бұрын

Very interesting. First time I see your videos. But what about Abkhazia? Could you make a video about their situation?

@basharalhashimi6187 10 ай бұрын

If anyone can tell me something about the colleges that teaches (literature, fine arts, languages, medicine, islamic religion), mosques, churches, synagogues, airports, resturants, Hospitals, diamond mines, tv channels, hotels , football stadiums,newspapers and magazines, tv series, theatre, cinema, broadcast, climate, nature, common food, folk music or clothes, native dialects in South osetia or any other country in the world or any information in any field of knowledge or any thing in life I will be very happy and not forget his favor and ask him not to be late because I still wait

@badxxxmonkey5541 Жыл бұрын

It seems that Russia doesn't appreciate their states thinking they can make decisions on their own. I think annexation would have happened if it came from Moscow and not from Ossetia first.

@abdulazizalghfri1213 Жыл бұрын

كلام مهم جدا.. نشكرك على ذالك ان كان بإمكانك ترجمة جميع حلقاتك إلى اللغة العربية

@hugodesrosiers-plaisance3156 Жыл бұрын

Great material, Professor, very interesting. I've been familiar with the Ossetian issue, as well as some of the other Caucasian issues (too many, it seems) for close to a decade now, and while I certainly don't claim to have any credential, I do feel sufficiently familiar with the material to offer what might be the start of an answer to "what's going on". In essence, I think it's fundamentally similar to the Fergana Valley situation: the Russians like their neighbours unstable and pliable. Annexing South Ossetia would, as I understand it, resolve the issue and thus, stabilize the area, which then ceases to be useful to Moscow. I'm looking forward to your answer, I really enjoy the brainfood you bring me! Cheers!

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks so much Hugo. A few others have also mentioned tat annexing it would solve the problem. Yes and no. It would certainly make it a lot harder to solve, but it wouldn't actually solve it. International law does not accept the annexation of another country's territory. In that regard, Russian annexation would not be recognised by the international community. Georgia would still be left with a territorial dispute - unless, after annexation, Tbilisi then decided to renounce its claim to SO. However, I couldn't see it doing that. In this sense, I'm not sure annexation would fundamentally change the situation. In this sense, Russia could go ahead and do it and there would still be an issue that would make Georgia's path towards NATO (and maybe the EU) difficult.

@guramq2149 Жыл бұрын

Divide and Conquer

@uchadvali4038 Жыл бұрын

South Ossetia (Georgian Samachablo) always will be Georgia 🇬🇪

@FNeway Жыл бұрын

Keep dreaming. If you keep conspiring with the West , Russia will take over Tibilisi.

@reanimationeas342 Жыл бұрын

Russia is happy to sow discord in any area as long as it becomes a pain for countries it hates and has useful resources

@teknologicanggih3126 Жыл бұрын

A great video, West Papuan is facing the same problem. It has given independence by Netherland, but Indonesia invaded them. I hope you will talk about it as well.

@lashachakhunashvili1399 Жыл бұрын

The primary distinction between Abkhazia and "South Ossetia" is that the Ossetians (once the most integrated ethnic minority of Georgia) love Russia and the Abkhazs (the most ethnocentric and tribally inward-looking minorities of Georgia) hate Georgia. Hence their "policies".

@rayian536 Жыл бұрын

Indeed, if a country like Turkey or the West guaranteed the independence of Abkhazia they would drop Russia in an instant.

@gabrielesimion3074 Жыл бұрын

@@rayian536 it is not necessary to recognise Abkhazia as ndipendent: it would be sufficient giving them a lot of money

@rayian536 Жыл бұрын

@@gabrielesimion3074 Money isn't the issue. What abkhazia needs is millitary protection.

@Maleficarum999 Жыл бұрын

@@rayian536 What Abkhazia needs is to become part of Georgia as an autonomous republic and escape Soviet time warp. You know there was a third breakaway region of Georgia called Adjara, it was incorporated into Georgia and now it's the most prosperous region of the country, Abkhazians need to visit Batumi and understand that can be their life.

@rayian536 Жыл бұрын

@@Maleficarum999 I have been to Adjara. More specifically Batumi. It's was even less developped than my shitty third world country. I didnt stay there much and I assumed that Tblisi would have looked much better. Is that not the case?

@paulstephen3257 Жыл бұрын

Do one on the union state between belarus and Russia. That should be interesting given the recent statements made by putin and lukashenko about strengthening ties. It looks like lukashenko is being pushed towards war as well.

@giuseppecappelluti3626 Жыл бұрын

As put by Dmitrij Trenin, the only possible solution to South Ossetia’s issue is an Andorran-like Russo-Georgian condominium. But, in order for this to happen, time is needed, as well as a step back from both sides

@L4wr3nc3810 Жыл бұрын

Id say the solution is independence and reunion with NO, followed by economic union with other unrecognised caucasian republics

@Todd.B Жыл бұрын

Isn’t there a major pipeline through that area and with sanctions and everything else, could this have some influence in this situation?

@Spacemongerr Жыл бұрын

It's nearby

@harrymills2770 Жыл бұрын

I'll take your word for it and thank you for the history lesson. We see some of the same things happening in the USA, where huge swaths of territory want to break away from domination by delusional and out-of-touch city-dwellers. Let them have the coastal cities. But make everything East of the Cascades part of Greater Idaho. Let Portland and Seattle do their thing, but don't let them make the rules for people who live outside the Urban Bubble.

@tomtsuka7662 Жыл бұрын

Sorry I inadvertently touched the wrong part of my computer and sent my article without completing it. The Eu Charter expressly stated that any member must abide by its military policies which in essence are NATO policies since most Eu members are NATO members, especially the most important and militarily powerful ones. South Ossetia therefore is both a reminder and a guarantee that Georgia not try to militarize itself nor become a tool for NATO for anti Russian subversive activities such as a defacto NATO member and a western NATO INTELLIGENCE hub for destabilizing the northern Caucasus and beyond. As far as Abkhazia is concerned RUSSIA will never give it back to Georgia. Historically it was part of Russia as autonomous Republic and it was given k to Georgia as a "gift" by Stalin and also by Beria who himself was a mingrelian and whose people made up the majority of the population by settling and squeezing out the indigenous Abkhazians over the years. The mingrelian speak mingrelian which is related to Georgian as Ukrainian is to Russian but who identify as Georgians and use Georgian as their written language and maintain mingrelian as an oral language. Russia does not want to see Abkhazia turned into a NATO or EU naval base in the black Sea against Russia. It should be remembered that initially Saakashvili was appointed by podorenko the previous UKRAINIAN president as head of Odessa oblast and with the support and organization through NATO and UK and US military intelligence went on record that he would build Odessa the port city into a powerful NATO naval base to oppose the Russian naval base in Sebastopol in the Crimea.. however he ran afoul with the Ukrainian government and elites over his populist accusations of corruption and his manoeuvring to set himself up as a potential future president of Ukraine. This in turn got the Ukrainian government to take away his Ukrainian citizenship and finally expelled him from Ukraine. And this saga now continues in Georgia and his imprisonment there. As Shakespeare said o what a complicated web that we whieve. I'm paraphrasing of course. By the way your video was insightful keep up the good work and have open informed and Frank discussions.

@Todd.B Жыл бұрын

Haven’t seen the whole video yet but was wondering how old is the data given in the beginning? I know one month into the war the Georgian Gov said 30k Russians have immigrated to Georgia and is probably double that now

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks Todd. Yes, apparently a lot of Russians have moved to Georgia. But I think this figure refers to the long term established Russian community in the country.

@Todd.B Жыл бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay Good point. As of now we really don't have any idea how many may eventually return to Russia and how many will stay. The one Russian youtuber I follow who did move to Georgia though does seem to be much happier in Georgia.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

@@Todd.B Interesting. A lot have also moved to Serbia. It seems many young professionals are leaving.

@Todd.B Жыл бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay Georgia is popular because they offer a one year visa, which is longer than all other options. People leaving combined with the fact that Russia already had the third lowest birthrate in the world is going to be a huge problem down the line no one is talking about. Usually people leave rural areas because they can’t find work and relocate to the larger cities. Russia may find the opposite, rural areas won’t have enough workers to keep the towns functioning.

@timor64 Жыл бұрын

Perhaps it suits Russia to have Georgia's borders unsettled.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks. Very true. The question is to what end. With Ukraine, one wonders what happens next. Does Putin go all in and try to annexe South Ossetia? Difficult to know now.

@timor64 Жыл бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay My thoughts are that having a messy unsettled border makes Georgia a less appealing candiate to the EU.

@krishnar1182 Жыл бұрын

Thank you for this well-done, informative video. I had been wondering about this. My own opinion is that this is a "bargaining chip" as you suggested and that the idea of de facto annexation (but not de jure) is likely to continue to be Russia's modus operand. I suspect that if the "special operation" reaches Transnistria that Russia will be do something similar there. This gives Russia effective control over the territories and their peoples, but they can be relieved of the responsibilities that come with being the official sovereign and keep the former republics ensnared in the frozen conflicts over territories that they will probably never regain.

@maxwalker1159 Жыл бұрын

Interesting

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks.

@Pavlos_Charalambous Жыл бұрын

That reminds me the time when the Greek prime minister Plastiras told Makarios the shouldn't try to unite Cyprus with Greece because" Greece has American and British lungs don't ask from motherland to suffocate " It seems that Russia can't manage to open a new front, at least for the time being and mostly interested on keeping the threat of a new invasion than actually making a move.. At least until they have a conclusion that would be positive for them in Ukraine

@illuminaticomfirmed6948 Жыл бұрын

I think there needs to be consideration of the ethnic and demographic dimension to this. In Russia non-East Slavs(Ukrainians, Russians, Belarusians, Rusyns) have lower birthrates than their non-Slavic counter parts. As Russia becomes more ethnically diverse there will be less social cohesion and separatist movements are likely to be strengthened. This was an observation made by Peter Zeihan in “The Accidental Superpower”, and he seemingly predicted quite effectively that Russia would annex territory from Eastern Ukraine to gain more Russians. However, another element is that Ukrainians and Belarusians are East Slavs and could be considered partially Russified and the easiest groups to assimilate. Hence why Russia signed a union state agreement with Belarus and not say Kazakhstan. Hence why Russian is annexing territory from Ukraine but not accepting South Ossetia or Abkhazia into the Federation. This is not to say ethnicity is the only reason for the discrepancy in behaviour but this could be a factor at play.

@learning7140 Жыл бұрын

No, Zeihan was wrong because the population in East Ukraine wasn't young so not a good way to "get more Russians". Also, if Kazakhstan wanted to enter into a Union State agreement with Russia, Russia would accept. Besides, Kazakhstan has a quite large ethnic Russian population who had actually tried to separate once, but they didn't at the end. I'm surprised that no-one here seems to point out that Putin and Lavrov have always followed International Law, which is why they never annexed an area till 2014 with Crimea. This is why Putin didn't want Donbass to hold a referendum to get independence from Kiev and join Russia in 2014, but they didn't listen to him. Still, he didn't recognise the two People Republics and tried to respect Ukraine's borders through the Minsk agreements. If Kiev had respected the agreements, Ukraine would be whole - but Kiev's government never cared about the Ukrainians in those areas, they only wanted the land.

@docall18 Жыл бұрын

Zeihan is a neo-con mouthpiece. Anything he says needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

@illuminaticomfirmed6948 Жыл бұрын

@@learning7140 That's speculation though, the fact of the matter is is that Russia has annexed territory with Ukraine and has not done so with Georgia. There is a difference in behaviour that requires explanation and the ethnic dimension is one. Also more Slavs is still more Slavs regardless of age.

@illuminaticomfirmed6948 Жыл бұрын

@@docall18 I agree but I think his analysis of Russian interests and behaviour is accurate. What I find about his analyses that are biased is his analysis of Western countries. France, New Zealand and especially America are undergoing rapid demographic change like Russia of non-European ethnic minorities, America has it worse than Russia even. And yet this is fine because America is 'A settler state' or something even though historically America was a European nationalist country that did not give citizenship to non-Europeans. Its a bizarre contradiction.

@FlamingBasketballClub Жыл бұрын

2:49 Looking at this particular map. Wouldn't the South Ossetia issue become a problem for Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan since they are neighboring countries to both Georgia and Russia?

@CHE6yp Жыл бұрын

Turkey itself wouldn't mind to take Adjara from Georgia

@doctorgamerstron6674 Жыл бұрын

Now Nigerians are scared that the government is compromised with Islamist sympathizers. A navy barrack and army barrack Is 40minutes to 1hr away from the jail(kuje), they even gave a sermon in the jail as they assaulted it. It is scary in Nigeria.

@aaronjones8905 Жыл бұрын

It seems to me, that the South Ossetians would be better off in Georgia considering they would be largely ignored inside of Russia. They could negotiate massive influence in Georgia, and probably even get Georgia to commit to neutrality. I don't understand the hesitancy on Russia's part unless they don't have the money to make it seem worthwhile to the South Ossetians. There are reports that Crimea is suffering right now because Russian subsidies have been cut.

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks Aaron. That’s often the irony in these situations. The problem is that the country that they have broken away from often doesn’t want to offer the extensive autonomy to attract them back, and the breakaway states often have an inflated sense of their value and make unreasonable demands. It is a very big gap to bridge in many cases.

@sababugs1125 Жыл бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay south Ossetia is by georgian law an autonomous entity with the possibility of becoming an entire autonomous republic if they reintegrate

@roddychristodoulou9111 Жыл бұрын

I can't see anything untoward here as Russia being in a state of war deems this vote as untimely . Russia's preferred position would be to to support all breakaway regions to the hilt , it just makes more sense and keeps any said country as a kind of serf to Russia . America does exactly the same to other countries but in a different way .

@59Gretsch Жыл бұрын

Others made good comments below. I might add, Putin seems very calculating, even restrained up until recently when he felt his hand was forced in Ukraine. He might see the georgia situation as something which might turn into a two-front conflict and with so little to gain, why risk it. As it is, Syria and the US presence there might be that 2nd front.

@pplanetEarth Жыл бұрын

I think the reason is more obvious than it sounds: since Russia has it's own ethnic Ossetian people (North Ossetia), unification of South Ossetia with Russia, in effect with North Ossetia, would strengthen statehood and identity of Ossetians, leading to divergence of Ossetia from Russia as one state in future. This is the core reason, it has happened in other similar situations too.

@igorbrille8222 Жыл бұрын

Did not most of the South-Ossetians get already a Russian passport?

@WS-zd4jz Жыл бұрын

"What Does Russia Really Want?" That should be "what does Putin really want". He wants to be Czar of the new soviet.

@jackburgess8579 Жыл бұрын

Stop behaving like a child.

@Carewolf Жыл бұрын

@@jackburgess8579 That is what we keep telling Putin, but he does it anyway.

@HCUhardcoreUnited Жыл бұрын

I wonder if Russia left these regions behind, after the USSR dissolved. So they might leverage politcal favour down the line. When they might know/think they will have a conflict with the West again.

@dilly7551 Жыл бұрын

Imo it’s more of a liability than a asset for some of the reasons you discussed. It’s easier to have territory than additional states to your country.

@doctorgamerstron6674 Жыл бұрын

Can you do an update on Nigeria, Islamist attacked And Released commanders from a jail in the capital city even tho a military barrack is 45minutes away. The attack lasted over 2hrs with no effort to stop them

@BladeTheWatcher Жыл бұрын

It looks pretty simple for me. Putin doesn't want S. Ossetia to become part of Russia because it would be immediately under the same sanctions as Russia. Right now the status quo serves Russia - they own the country without having any responsibility for it. So, they can use it to import and export goods through it, threaten non-Russian oil routes, and so on. So, actually the current situation fits Russia better than just adding an uninteresting new county to Russia, which they would have to supply just like most counties out of Europe. Just like in chess - the threat of an offensive move is worse than the move itself.

@krob2327 Жыл бұрын

Agreed. They thought the same about donbass etc but I have no idea what changed

@tomtsuka7662 Жыл бұрын

This is the second part of my article the first part is with your replies. Sorry for this disjointed article.

@bernd_das_brot6911 Жыл бұрын

Professor James who is the patron state of Kosovo? Albania or the USA? A combination of western states?

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Great question. Kosovo is a strange one. It isn’t like most other de facto states - if we can even call it one. It has considerable international interaction in its own right. But effectively it is the United States and many EU members, but close ties obviously also exist with Albania.

@eugenegvozdetsky2673 Жыл бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay Who are patrons of Somaliland and Palestine?

@shappy60 Жыл бұрын

Perhaps Georgia will descend into "fascism" and Russia has to "step in" to "defend" the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia? Of course the entirety of Georgia would then have to be "denazified". Who knows at this point

@emib6599 Жыл бұрын

That time weapons and intel will come lot quicker than Ukraine.

@TheAllMightyGodofCod Жыл бұрын

This is just a completely unfounded supposition but could it be that at this point Russia fears that if a referendum is held in South Ossetia that Georgia will take military action does opening a second front while things are not going great in Ukraine?

@JamesKerLindsay Жыл бұрын

Thanks. Good point. This could certainly be a concern. But I worry that Russia would take extremely heavy-handed measures in response if Georgia tried it.

@TheAllMightyGodofCod Жыл бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay without a doubt they would. Things are so tense right now I wonder what can happen next.

@geoexplains3462 Жыл бұрын

@@JamesKerLindsay yeah. ukraine is struggling against russia and it is 10 times stronger than georgia. russia would just send 10k soldiers and georgia would capitulate instantly.

@rais1953 Жыл бұрын

The most prominent and complex relationship between a defacto state and its patron and the one with the most risk of international trouble is that between Taiwan under the unrecognised Republic of China administration and the United States. Not a generation ago the authorities in Taipei and in Beijing were each claiming to be the sole legitimate government of all of China and the Taipei based authorities represented China in the UN and its Security Council. Then the world recognised the winner of China's civil war and the Taipei authority lost its de jure status. In view of the seeming inevitability of Taiwan's return to full Chinese sovereignty it would be interesting to have the Professor's thoughts on the best solution to the issue. For what it's worth, my suggestion for a first step could be the formal approval by China of the present Taipei authorities to govern a fully autonomous but not sovereign special territory which recognised the suzerainty of the Beijing government. Taiwan could then rejoin various international organisations as a sub-delegation of the Chinese delegation. Informal international relations would remain through the existing "Taipei Trade and Cultural Liaison Offices." This would require the Republic of China to come to an end without ending self government in Taiwan. Such a solution could only work if Beijing decided not to base any mainland forces on the island.

@jebise1126 Жыл бұрын

3:08 that really looks more than 5,5% but... guess im just bad at estimating. also 50000 people only wow... so little

@altedeev4295 Жыл бұрын

4:43 "...announced that it formed a separate Soviet republic...". Not exactly. South Ossetia announced Autonomous Soviet Republic WITHIN Georgian SSR. That would allow South Ossetia sign the new Union Treaty (Gorbachev's plan crashed after GKCHP).

@tiitsaul9036 Жыл бұрын

Russia is not very interested in resolving problems. It’s beneficial to Russia to keep problems linger.

@monkeyking-self-proclaimed7050 Жыл бұрын

They want all their stolen yacht back.

@mohamedkhaireh9356 Жыл бұрын

Professor James Ker-Lindsay, another factor you have not considered is that the current Georgian government is not hostile to Russia. In fact the current Georgian government has refused to sanction Russia, citing its economic links with Russia i.e. tourism and market for Georgian products such as wine, etc. The most influential and richest oligarch in Georgia is a Russian national. The new Georgian government is prosecuting Mikhail Saakashvili who was president of Georgia in during the 5 day war with Russia in August 2008 and former governor of Odessa in 2015/16. Annexing South Ossetia would have undermined Russia's man in Georgia and the current Russian friendly government in Tbilisi. And that is not in Russia's national interests.

@guramq2149 Жыл бұрын

You are speaking the truth, im Georgian myself and our country is allready semi controlled by Russia. Not officially but behind the curtains.

@GiorgiKvinikhidze Жыл бұрын

May god bless you brother

@daveh893 Жыл бұрын

I wonder if leaders in North Ossetia just don't want unification. Maybe they influenced the Russian move.

@Edo9River Жыл бұрын

It seems to me that by keeping South Ossetia inside Georgia it adds a destabilizing factor to Georgia society,. Similar to the Russian population in Latvia.

@joshualifetree5398 Жыл бұрын

If they want to be independent no-one can change that.

@sandro1350 Жыл бұрын

🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪💙💙💙💛💛💛

@thierryf67 Жыл бұрын

May be Russia government think they have more to gain with South Ossetia remaining a destabilizing region of the Georgia (candidate to join E.U.), than the reunification of a insignificant small republic in the Russian federation (North Ossetia + South Ossetia) ?

@mattpryber5799 Жыл бұрын

I think the main thing is Russian is trying to reexpand their global influence . Which i dont know technically it would expand if they straight up annexed these territories.