Stephanie Pomboy: Exhausted Consumers Are "Spent Up & Lent Up", So Economy Will Slow

Рет қаралды 122,943

27 күн бұрын

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It feels like a tale of two economies right now.
If you ask an economist, chances are you'll hear that the US is doing great, growing faster than its G7 peers, with low unemployment and a stock market back near all-time highs.
But if you ask the average man on the street, you'll likely hear a very different story.
One of hardship, where wages aren't keeping up with the massive spike in cost of living, where companies are reducing hours, freezing hiring or actively laying workers off, and households are increasingly forced to turn to expensive credit cards to fund living essentials.
Which of these is more accurate? And are things likely to get better or worse from here?
For an expert view, we're lucky today to talk with Stephanie Pomboy, economic and market analyst and proprietor of MacroMavens.com
Follow Stephanie at macromavens.com/
#inflation #deflation #recession
_____________________________________________
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@adam.taggart 29 күн бұрын

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@keithcourtney5883 24 күн бұрын

Bail-ins will also be inevitable

@grantgoldberg1663 12 күн бұрын

Yep, all those broke 20 year olds working at Starbucks who got conned into those worthless degrees by the adults in their lives they should have been able to trust, yeah they're the problem. Not the bankers who ruined the country by destroying the currency.

@1painter4hire 24 күн бұрын

So i was re-striping a Best Buy parking lot Sat. Night. Manager came out , we started talking, He said people are splitting the balances between 3 credit cards to buy TV's and Video Games ????? Clown World folks....

@Ghostmanriding 22 күн бұрын

I didn't know you could even do that, lol. I wait until I can pay cash.

@Latenightnonsense-td5yd 19 күн бұрын

That’s ridiculous, but that’s cool that you got to chat with the manager

@michelleadams5609 17 күн бұрын

They do it for the rewards. They're the smart ones. (written in sarcasm font) I'm endeavoring to use cash for everything for the past few years, but...can't. But I'm not buying TVs but Ribeyes. lol

@jupiterthree5228 Сағат бұрын

Hmm.. do they really need the TV that bad? lol.

@henrypadilla7571 26 күн бұрын

Stephanie is in my top 2 Thoughtful Money guests. Never miss her take.👍

@benjaminbodkin3984 25 күн бұрын

Why? You like hearing from people that are constantly wrong?

@user-wg4hk4xm8v 3 күн бұрын

She's a nice person though. She may be right this time with the stats she cited. Also todays fdic report of banks 517 billion underwater is scary

@ambienceization 19 күн бұрын

We're skidding in slow motion.....brakes locked up and car is going out of control .....but we haven't hit the wall yet.

@upsidedown1972 2 күн бұрын

I grew up in North Dakota. That reminds me of what it's like driving on an icy road. You can be doing 10mph, brakes on, off, pumped, whatever. You still have to watch helplessly as you slide into a light pole.

@dougstohlman673 26 күн бұрын

The middle class died from a thousand cuts.. Not just one thing. Offshoring, asset inflation, taxation, lax corporate governance, lax enforcement of laws on the top, algorithmic driven ads driving consumers to never be happy with what they have, all have benefited the few at the expense of the many. The consolidation of mega corporations into untouchables verging on monopolies. If your life is a living chaotic hell, why work if you can never get ahead. Society is disintegrating. Tax breaks, subsidies and grants for the rich don't help. There is never shared austerity, crisis has always been an excuse to transfer more wealth and power to those who generated all the inequality and insecurity. Change is coming.. I just wish I didn't feel so uneasy about it. Things look pretty bleak to me.

@DIVISIONINCISION 26 күн бұрын

"Why work if you can never get ahead?". Well, unemployment only lasts so long and you won't want to be homeless. I'd say those are motivators. Beyond that, it's incumbent on the individual to choose a career that will pay a salary they require. If that means more education, taking on debt may be necessary. There will be people who take on those low paying jobs/unskilled labor, but it won't be teenagers or elderly.

@YouTubeYouTubeYouTubeYouTubeY 25 күн бұрын

All that feels like socialism. If the voters can’t stop it we will experience Socialist Republics of America controlled by corporate fascism.

@ThunderStruck94660 23 күн бұрын

Great way to put it, thank you.

@istvanpraha 10 күн бұрын

Asset inflation is supposed to help but lately its only in one direction and illogical. I'm very frustrated. I have cash, I should be doing well. But there is nothing to buy. Everything (mostly talking about stocks but also real estate) got overvalued and won't freakin correct. Things barely got to fairly valued in Oct 2022, only to find out that was some big long term bottom. That is insane. A big crash in term of percent doesn't even make stocks cheap. I remember that day it bottomed and sitting there struggling to find stocks to buy because despite many stocks being -10% in a week, they were still expensive!

@frankherman5195 4 күн бұрын

👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍

@drew2f 17 күн бұрын

It’s so good to see someone who sees how things really are and not just regurgitate CNBC talking points. Great interview.

@WisdomOfTheAged 26 күн бұрын

Thank you for having Stephanie on again. She has such a clear way of explaining things.

@SmilingInstantCamera-ix9bx 26 күн бұрын

Stephanie, I ran a Corporate Bond Trade Desk and traded on the street for 25 years and always love what you have to say because you’re always right on the money! Great interview guys. And Stephanie, don’t continue your beat yourself up for being “early” on calling the Equity markets. You are right! If it wasn’t for this AI hype we would already be there…to your point of 10 companies propping up indexes! It’s, as you guys know, just a house of cards waiting for the slightest breeze right now. Just wanted to say you guys are a welcome voice of reason in this clearly crazy period we are going through so thanks and I hope you guys both keep up the great work! Sincerely, Cameron 👍👍🙂

@wilheminathebulldog 26 күн бұрын

Thanks so much for this Cameron I appreciate it more than you can know

@threemonkeys5441 25 күн бұрын

It has been a house of cards for over a year and half now. What will finally bring it down? Waiting patiently for the inevitable

@benjaminbodkin3984 25 күн бұрын

Always right on the money! Other than the fact that she has been wrong for years! 🤣🤣🤣

@TrueDat 20 күн бұрын

Been a House of Cards since 2008 @threemonkeys5441

@billw1958 5 күн бұрын

@@benjaminbodkin3984 i look forward to your podcast and 100% correct predictions.. That will be a winner.

@markmcguire7261 26 күн бұрын

Nothing better than Adam and Stephanie

@adventurebabyboomer7318 17 күн бұрын

Corporations are able to show profits because they are cutting employee payroll hours. Expect the same amount of work to be done for in less hours. Hard on employees.

@CaptainSteve777 23 күн бұрын

Excellent discussion. Stephanie Pomboy is fantastic. She's spot on about the moral hazard of bailouts.

@sues3218 26 күн бұрын

My son is management for a major tire chain company in the West. They are very popular in our city, and sales YTD are down 8% for this area, across all the stores. People are struggling. Recession is here. Just look at how much less groceries people are putting in their carts. People also just look miserable anymore.

@michaels4255 25 күн бұрын

The usual crowd just wants to keep it out of the news until the election is over.

@robertwilson5615 26 күн бұрын

Pleeze have Steph on as often as possible. She's a tier 1 thinker. We need to hear her. Thanks so much.

@renelopez2244 26 күн бұрын

Mr. Magoo reference for Jerome Powell is just priceless. I can't take thelat imagine out of my mind

@DIVISIONINCISION 26 күн бұрын

What about Yellen? She seems more clueless to me.

@Reflect50 26 күн бұрын

I never miss any interview you have with Stephanie. She is absolutely awesome !!!

@ronlokk 26 күн бұрын

We are in a have and a have not economy. The FED is expecting everyone to adjust to the current condition, but everyone cannot. Stephanie is a realist.

@DIVISIONINCISION 26 күн бұрын

The middle class is disappearing and either you level up or get left behind. I know it's regional, but would be interesting to know what is considered "Middle class" versus "Upper Class". by metro and state.

@ronlokk 26 күн бұрын

@@DIVISIONINCISION We are now a CLASS society, similar to Europe. How many people can go out and buy gold just to be safe?

@DIVISIONINCISION 26 күн бұрын

@@ronlokk I could, but there are better investments out there. I would buy more land before ever thinking about Gold/Silver.

@Youknowwhatscoming 25 күн бұрын

Well said. And that’s why fed is stuck. They can rescue neither the bottom 80% and bring inflation down by raising rates nor can they cut rates to help save the banks, housing and stock market as then inflation would rise to insane levels. I don’t know how anything is going to get better.

@billw1958 5 күн бұрын

@@Youknowwhatscoming go look at jimmy carter and the failure by the federal govt is very similar.. 14% mtg rates.. .its where we are going..

@tonylinardi3089 26 күн бұрын

Welcome to the world of irresponsible spending, where the responsible adults pay for the rest. This will end badly.

@carrimycalifor 24 күн бұрын

Preach

@michaeljacobs4546 23 күн бұрын

One word: road to Argentina

@airbourne2 26 күн бұрын

I wonder how many people never resumed paying their mortgage since covid.

@DIVISIONINCISION 26 күн бұрын

It's hard to to say. Those people would have been foreclosed by now, right?

@ralphjessee2688 26 күн бұрын

4.4 million are currently delinquent.

@rathelmmc3194 26 күн бұрын

@@DIVISIONINCISIONthey should have been, but there’s been so much deference.

@ppeters480 25 күн бұрын

@@DIVISIONINCISION , apparently from his other video with the real estate person, a portion of the people that were in a forebearance the bank settled up that amount and then made it a lien on their property and not foreclosed on as of yet.

@mrscassandrasolano 23 күн бұрын

I think Melody Wright spoke on this in a recent video here

@jonEmontana 26 күн бұрын

Thanks for coming on Stephanie. Lag effects in coming? I think so

@danielma1266 26 күн бұрын

Stephanie is absolutely brilliant! Very rarely do I agree with someone a %100 of the time but she is the exception. Look forward to her return!

@marciandjohn6320 26 күн бұрын

Mean vs median, brilliant Adam, thank you!

@jayr.taylor210 20 күн бұрын

Requiring private pension funds to hold government bonds is the last signal to a banana Republic. It never ends well. Don’t encourage it.

@johnrubino7604 26 күн бұрын

Credit card charge off's by banks is going to be epic in this cycle.

@standinginthegap7118 25 күн бұрын

Definitely tapped out. The economy is horrible for we average Joes

@alfredepding974 26 күн бұрын

I appreciate Stephanie's honesty and scrutiny of stats and details that go way beyond the MSM headlines and propaganda. These alternative views matter and though Stephanie can't say when these economic factors will culminate in a real downturn in the U.S. economy staying her course will be safer and ultimately more profitable by waiting and buying assets cheap versus buying assets at highs and unsustainable levels.

@bpb5541 26 күн бұрын

Thank you both !!!

@Jalleur14325 26 күн бұрын

Yes great interview.

@billmitchell205 23 күн бұрын

The best guest overall - and on many individual points as well. A gem!

@Casey-rr7th 26 күн бұрын

Steph is simply awesome

@smithbrady6173 26 күн бұрын

Thanks Adam and thankyou Stephanie. Great interview ,thanks again ! !

@johnarmon7818 26 күн бұрын

Always enjoy and look foreard to hearing from Stephanie!!

@jtrealfunny 26 күн бұрын

Elegant guest paints a very dark picture. Highly recommended. The tale of two economies finally getting told. You could also call it income inequality. Mega yachts are cool, rocket ships are even cooler. Looking across our economy and ask yourself where do most people have to work, what sorts of jobs do most people have?

@DIVISIONINCISION 26 күн бұрын

Unless you work in a specialized field (Medical) or the trades, you're at risk for being laid off. As far as where most people "have" to work. Many of the IT, real estate folks I see on LinkedIn who were laid off are working in fields that have nothing to do with their former career, or reduced to side hustles. Program Managers have no program to manage any longer.

@jtrealfunny 26 күн бұрын

@@DIVISIONINCISION I was thinking more of our retail, service and fulfillment landscape.

@dylansmith6078 21 күн бұрын

@@DIVISIONINCISIONeven trades are getting layoffs even in building markets where people are not buying as many homes because they can't so I even have some friends in framing, roofing, and plumbing finding work slow down to where they are seeing a normal work week instead of the average 16hr days

@curtisstewart3179 25 күн бұрын

I love how you put out diversified thought. There is a world of difference between her and Lance. Definitely not an echo chamber with you, Adam.

@squarewheel142 24 күн бұрын

Another GREAT video with Stephanie, she is Fabulous and Smart! I never get tired of hearing her speak financial wisdom, Please have her on again soon.

@maureenberendonk4662 26 күн бұрын

How long has it been since the American people have been referred to as consumers instead of “citizens”?! What I’ve watched in my lifetime as all of you who make your living from the financialization of EVERYTHING is that we are told the opposite of what has actually gone on….we’re told inflation has just occurred since 2008…I’ve watched everything we NEED go steadily up for the last 50 years ie. Real estate, medical, every kind of insurance, every kind of tax, etc. etc…..all the cheap Chinese shit in the world couldn’t make up for the outright selling off of our decent paying jobs…401k’s and the like are all scams, pensions are almost nonexistent and social security has been robbed by our own government…do any of you “financial experts” ever wonder why Marxism aka authoritarianism looks so appealing to our young people?! Because while our government and corporations were selling us out and off our young folks have never experienced true free market capitalism….you can talk it to death until it’s too late or decide are you Americans too and want to see our country exist as it was meant to be…why don’t you get together with others who are wealthy and we’ll connected and help us get our country back?!?!

@shaneamundson1192 9 күн бұрын

Get together and vote Constitution Party

@maureenberendonk4662 9 күн бұрын

@@shaneamundson1192 that’s what MAGA thinks it is

@minnesotasalamander5913 26 күн бұрын

Thanks Stephanie.

@evgeniiastapov354 26 күн бұрын

Stephanie happy and terrific as always!

@hhz5469 23 күн бұрын

I was premium outlet near Palm Springs this afternoon. Bought some heavily discounted clothes from two stores, one is for teenagers, one is for golfers. Both stores were empty , let alone the whole outlets were as quiet. Both store managers were talkative and mentioned business is slow and prices are high. A lot of robberies. Tourists from Asia and Europe are way down.

@thealternativecontrarian9936 25 күн бұрын

We see the economy starting to sour, which could prompt the Fed to cut rates. This will excite the markets further sending them higher. Meanwhile the economy sours further while the markets are dancing around all time highs. This madness cannot continue.

@angeldarior 26 күн бұрын

Outstanding dialogue. Both of you are great professionals of the economy.

@beckyforbis4858 26 күн бұрын

Great interview!

@RobWilliams007 24 күн бұрын

Always a good day when we hear from Stephanie.

@BB-sf7jv 26 күн бұрын

Love Stephanie…..Class Act

@petergozinya6122 26 күн бұрын

Thank you Adam.

@jack852494 20 күн бұрын

The broken-down vehicle on the side of the road index is through the roof.

@morrisfamily7707 25 күн бұрын

A great relationship you have....content and context was born from that. Thanks Guys x

@barrywagoner5191 25 күн бұрын

Stephanie is my favorite guest of yours

@bargdaffy1535 25 күн бұрын

Tis a Tale of Two Economies, the Ruling Class Corporate Economy and the Working Class Economy, and it is obvious.

@jmcmob608 26 күн бұрын

Thank you very much...

@michaelblock3998 24 күн бұрын

One of my favorite guests.

@MrMarccj 26 күн бұрын

Yey! Stephanie is back :)

@KansasRocker 26 күн бұрын

Adam, great content. Thank you for having Stephanie on. She's the best!

@jerrysteffy7900 26 күн бұрын

Always great to hear the New Harbor insights and synopsis. Their analysis continues to be both prudent and helpful. Stephanie is a great guest. This was quality listening from start to finish.

@toddgammons9400 26 күн бұрын

Always the best interview

@mjohnson9743 26 күн бұрын

I live in the country of Panama. To Stephany's point about the government paying off credit cards. Here in Panama the populace is spending on their cards and just walking away from the debt. There are no repercussions to the debtor so this is one country that has already started down this road.

@funkspinna 26 күн бұрын

Wow! Thanks for sharing.

@DIVISIONINCISION 26 күн бұрын

Amazing. So how long until the cards are cancelled and then what are people doing?

@MrSteeDoo 26 күн бұрын

Ok good. The lenders should lose money if they extend credit foolishly.

@iancormie9916 23 күн бұрын

You are probably correct. For the last 30 years, being fiscally responsible has not been a benefit. The Student devmbt forgiveness is just a bailout for tge financial system and the University administrators. Given the left wing (communist) bent that the University systems have demonstrated as WOKE generators and support for terrorist organizations. It is time these institutions received a healthy dose of real world economics.

@mattanderson6672 25 күн бұрын

Stephanie, Mike and John, you've got the best off the best on today As always love listening to these three, brilliant discussion Thank you all!

@4000angels 26 күн бұрын

Excellent interview as always. Stephanie is an awesome guest as always. Thank you, Adam.

@breadbowlpasta 26 күн бұрын

Thank you Adam

@paulinechernick2537 26 күн бұрын

Excellent interview!

@AliceinWonderlandzz 25 күн бұрын

Excellent presentation Stephanie. You speak with clarity for both novice and experienced.

@davewood8985 26 күн бұрын

Stephanie is awesome. Should have her on weekly and take Lance’s weekly show. Has command of stats that are meaningful to the rank and file. Tremendous.

@Ifjustfortoday1 26 күн бұрын

So happy you are having Stephanie palmboy back

@peterobrien62 26 күн бұрын

Stephanie is a wonderful guest.

@BatmanBoss 26 күн бұрын

Thanks buddy

@Alloytribe86 26 күн бұрын

I love your content.

@user-xk2rx5gz8f 26 күн бұрын

Insightful! Thanks!

@seemlessweb 19 күн бұрын

Extremely good and helpful commentary.

@marypierson7899 24 күн бұрын

Love Stephanie❤

@jays9870 25 күн бұрын

Stephanie is absolutely brilliant, and she really gets it, particulalry the great divide and the psyche of consumers. Fantastic interview, thank you so much.

@tonic.9530 24 күн бұрын

rich content. Great conversation. I enjoy both of you and appreciate your wise interpretation of this MESS

@royhooper8080 26 күн бұрын

Stephanie is spot on with people running up credit cards with no intention to pay them off…..I think I’d be shocked at the numbers who have this in their thoughts.

@codyherring5889 26 күн бұрын

I’d add another Patreon subscription for longer convo’s with Adam and Stephanie. Superstar analysis as always.

@joannstover9062 26 күн бұрын

Love Stephanie

@joechan8549 26 күн бұрын

Majority of the companies profit is much lower than last year, they might beat expectation. Also, huge companies changed their depreciation and Google reduced expense by 1 Billion each quarter. Amazon, Nvidia, Meta all change , so artificially earning up several billions each year. Real economy is in recession, real inflation is over 15%.

@HungLikeAPeanut 26 күн бұрын

Your intro has me asking “what is in this coffee?” 👍

@douglasthompson9482 16 күн бұрын

Outstanding interview. Stephanie wisdom and knowledge is beyond belief. I too have been observing these philosophies for years. Bravo….

@RainessaASMR 24 күн бұрын

Thanks for sharing 😊

@WeekendsOutsideFL 26 күн бұрын

Stephanie is a brilliant speaker and I appreciate her input and agree with it, or at least, it speaks to my personal experience boots on the ground

@cryhavoc1488 25 күн бұрын

Always a pleasure listening to Stephanie detail her analysis. Laying out the stats she analyzes to reach her conclusions.

@melissastolhammer72 25 күн бұрын

Stephanie is the best ❤

@mjbucar 25 күн бұрын

Great insights - thank you.

@markphillips9822 26 күн бұрын

I think what is also affecting Tyson Foods is...them putting crickets and mill worms in their food. Along with people not happy with them firing Americans and giving their jobs to illegals.

@nosac1230 25 күн бұрын

Lol. You need to get back on those meds.

@AhLaDad90 25 күн бұрын

👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾 Very good interview, Yes bring her back.

@stephenodey5147 25 күн бұрын

Stephanie EXCELLENT

@goretoye 14 күн бұрын

I have family members in the construction and home remodeling business in South Carolina. Their businesses have slowed by 50% right now. Usually summer time is when its supposed to pick up. Slow downs always happen in winter. Average home owners are not spending on renovations right now like they used to....

@markphillips2648 26 күн бұрын

I am really looking forward to your interview with Stephanie Pomboy, I always appreciate her fresh and unique views on the state of the economy. If I recall Stephanie was all in on the Gold Miners and it appears that her past peek into the “Magic Eight Ball” was spot on. Thank you for “Thoughtful Money” and wishing for your continued success in your successful venue!

@michaelalpine4198 26 күн бұрын

Stephanie is knowledgable and beautiful.

@tomdonovan4842 25 күн бұрын

Thank you

@pauljoseph2400 26 күн бұрын

Another great show from Adam with Stephanie. This is one of a few channels where I watch the entire stream with little to no skimming. You would think that our experience with just these limited stimulus checks would constitute a decisive stake through the heart of "universal basic income" . Imagine the staggering inflationary effect from perpetual monthly stimulus checks. Trump would deregulate, allow unlimited oil production, and kill green energy mandates through executive orders. That would remove much of the baseline inflationary impulses that the uniparty have embedded in the economy since Biden was installed as Supreme Leader Of The DC Establishment. I'd like to be present in the vet's waiting room when they summon Wilhelmina Pomboy.

@DIVISIONINCISION 26 күн бұрын

On other channels, many people are stating that UBI is a formality. I don't think so. In fact, I argued that the Federal Government already pays out UBI in the form of entitlements, so why would they dole out even more? I have a feeling many people are wanting UBI, thinking it would get them off the hook for poor career/life choices.

@MrNick615 26 күн бұрын

I don’t think the stimulus given to Americans including the three months of accelerated unemployment , constituted much percentage of the ultimate amounts they handed to companies and other countries. The violent upward market charts after Covid was a huge burst of liquidity and it didn’t come from anyone who received those few stimulus amounts.. somehow the wealthy got a whole lot wealthier and I don’t think that’s because everybody got like 3000 over a year or more which is nothing.. or even the 10,000 many got in extra unemployment especially considering they weren’t working or earning for those 3 months… the paltry crumbs did not cause this inflation.. I’m not argueing for or against ubi , too many variables to really know whether it would work.. I suspect ubi could work if done some ways, and fail horribly if done other ways.. However computers and machines are taking more and more and more labor every year and so humanity needs to find some way for this wonderful ingenuity to benefit all of us in lesser labor as machines grow food, make art, bang out cars, etc etc yes the owners of such a conglomerate should be rewarded for investing and running those machines but perhaps will also need to be taxed at 50% which would go to ubi.. which would then come right back into their pockets as ppl spent their ubi.. we aren’t quite there yet but I see it coming and so do others..

@pauljoseph2400 26 күн бұрын

@@MrNick615 Stimulus came in multiple forms. Families got enhanced child tax credits distributed monthly to their bank accounts in addition to the individual stimulus checks, whether they were still working or not. We now know that there was massive fraud in the COVID small business support program. Democrats, no doubt, structured the language of the bill to facilitate this fraud (as they are wont to do), then coached their "constituents" on how to game the system for imaginary businesses.

@ORO_LOBO 26 күн бұрын

Salute And Cheers To All Stackers

@mishdevlin1590 25 күн бұрын

We love Stephanie

@MAMP 26 күн бұрын

She's a great one to listen to. Thank you Adam!

@jscout04 26 күн бұрын

Next program up in Bidenomics: credit card forgiveness.

@michaelacton6246 26 күн бұрын

Sounds about right I have zero credit cards makes sense I get punished for being frugal and I paid my way through college didn't get any help their. I did it all wrong. Lol

@stewartrake3617 25 күн бұрын

Lots of great data from you, Stephanie and the New Harbor guys. I appreciate the whole team’s macro views.

@Slide61 25 күн бұрын

Great analysis Stephanie!!! As one of the rabble I see everything you mention all around me..

@jameskelly9243 23 күн бұрын

Money managers he says can be trusted. They dont even know what's going on.. My major problem is THEY will not NOT tell us how great they are. Never heard from them what year to year profits they make if any