Beryl has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and is roughly two days away from making landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast. The Yucatan really did a number on the system’s organization. Maximum sustained winds are down to 60 MPH, and it is a shell of its former self. It will likely take much of today for Beryl to recover; which helps put a lid on the rate of intensification. However, we caution folks not to let their guard down.
While we do not anticipate a ‘Harvey’ situation where we go from a tropical storm to a category four hurricane in two days, Beryl will likely pack a punch. The current forecast indicates Beryl should regain hurricane intensity tomorrow or tomorrow night and make landfall around lunchtime Monday on the Middle Texas Coast.
Hurricane watches are in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande (Texas/Mexico border) to San Luis Pass on the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. A Storm Surge Watch runs from the mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island on the Upper Texas Gulf Coast. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds' anticipated occurrence, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today or tonight.
The eastward shift in yesterday’s forecast has mostly stabilized, with a landfall now expected somewhere along the Middle Texas Gulf Coast or the Coastal Plains. Even though the landfall has shifted east, the storm’s angle of approach (moving northwest) will still result in a storm surge threat to the Lower Texas Gulf Coast tomorrow and tomorrow night. As the center of circulation moves north of those latitudes, winds will shift off-shore, helping to push water away from the coast.
Strong to locally damaging winds are anticipated near the landfall location of Beryl on Monday. The current forecast projects a category-one hurricane at landfall. The strongest winds will probably be located within stronger bands near the center of circulation. There will be a tornado threat with rain bands and individual cells moving onshore across the Coastal Bend, Coastal Plains, Southeast Texas, and Golden Triangle beginning Sunday afternoon/evening through Tuesday. The threat of fast-moving, spin-up tornadoes will likely expand northward to include the Brazos Valley and East Texas on Monday and Tuesday. It is important to note that while these spin-up tornadoes are typically brief and weak, they're also quite difficult to provide advance warning for.
As Beryl moves inland, three to ten inches of rain are expected across the eastern third of Texas over the next several days. After landfall on Monday, the system will slowly turn north and eventually northeast, passing near Bryan/College Station on Tuesday afternoon and Texarkana to Marshall on Wednesday afternoon. Dry soils will absorb some of the initial rains, but we anticipate a flood threat to develop after soils saturate and runoff increases.
As the circulation of Beryl starts winding down on Tuesday into Wednesday, we’ll start to calm down - but it will continue raining near the circulation’s location as it moves northeast. It’ll depart Texas on Wednesday, with some chance of showers and storms continuing in its wake. A northerly wind shift will occur west of the system’s track, which may draw in some nicer temperatures.
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