A busy week featuring severe thunderstorms will continue into the start of the Memorial Day Weekend. We’re anticipating another round of scattered supercell thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening across parts of the Hill Country, Central Texas, North Texas, Texoma, Northeast Texas, and the Ark-La-Tex. Like the last few days, the most intense storms will be capable of producing giant hail up to the size of softballs, damaging wind gusts over 75 MPH, and a low threat of tornadoes. Flooding rainfall will also be expected under the heaviest storms. Storms will not impact most folks in Texas, but those who are will likely have to deal with rowdy behavior.
Like yesterday, we’ll need to monitor the dryline and outflow boundaries for thunderstorm initiation after 3 PM. Some data suggests storms may not develop until around 5 to 6 PM, but given strong daytime heating, we may see earlier development. Regardless, storms will likely intensify quickly in an extremely unstable environment. Most storms will slowly move east or southeast, though some splitting-supercell behavior will result in left splits moving north/northeast. Today’s severe weather chances have the potential to impact the evening rush hour in the D/FW Metroplex south into Central Texas. Any supercell that latches onto an outflow boundary left over from the storms yesterday or this morning could have a higher risk of producing a tornado.
As the evening progresses, we may see some upscale growth into a cluster with storms. This activity may then move east/southeast into East Texas and toward the northern Brazos Valley. While we expect the thunderstorm coverage to weaken and decrease late this evening, it's important to note that some activity may persist past midnight. If these clusters move southeastward, be prepared for strong winds and hail, which would be the main hazards.
Thunderstorm chances on Saturday are decreasing in Texas as weather model data suggests a stronger capping inversion. An isolated intense thunderstorm remains possible in Northwest Texas, Texoma, and North Texas late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. If a storm does manage to develop, it will be severe.
Wildfire danger will be very high to extreme across the western third of Texas through Memorial Day Weekend. A decrease in wildfire danger is expected next week as the dryline shifts closer to the Texas/New Mexico line and thunderstorm chances increase.
Sunday looks less active as a cool front starts to move south. Without thunderstorms and with the heat-dome overhead, the entire state will be summer-level hot, with temperatures in the 90s, 100s, and 110s. It will not be pleasant. The northern half of Texas will be a bit less hot on Memorial Day (Monday) as the cool front shifts south, but it’ll remain quite warm across the southern half of Texas.
We may see a return of thunderstorm chances beginning Monday in the southeastern half of Texas and farther west and north by Tuesday and Wednesday. The severe thunderstorm potential remains uncertain, though temperatures would likely be cooler statewide next week if we had increased rain chances. Monday doesn’t look like a wash-out, and isolated storm chances would hold off until the late afternoon hours. We’ll keep an eye on it.
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