Silver lining from corona is we are getting more Mark Blyth

I am a 36 year old home owner father of two, I watch and search out Mark Blyth like I use to search out new bands and girls in my twenties. I thankfully use him and his discourse with others to help shape the conversations with I am having with the people around me. Epecially the Booming Babies in my life. Thank you to all that help to make things like this happen. Hopefully nudging policy one conversation at a time.

Mark Blyth needs to be doing interviews/conversations like this all the time - incredible insight

Economy of enough should be adopted for a humanistic based society.

Two intelligent, well spoken men, quite a breath of fresh air.

2020 - the decade of debt forgiveness...just not for the individual.

Oil isn't a mystery, supply & demand. A rampant stock market is.

English Teacher in Vietnam. It used to cost me 50,000 Dong to fill up my motorbike now its 30,000. Some countries are passing down the savings to the people. A silver lining?

One good thing that has come from oil prices plummeting and demand sinking like the Titanic: I can go outside and I see no smog. The air is clear. I can finally smell the flowers that are growing in my suburban yard.

Peak oil went away because of fracking and shale. The new worry is the other half of fossil carbon fuel, atmosphere, peak atmosphere. We're already way past where peak use of the atmosphere as a free dumping ground for greenhouse gas emissions.

I would love to hear you two have discussion on the Canadian economy. With missive government spending before and during the virus, the two major cities (Vancouver and Toronto) in a massive real-estate bubble depending on Chinese investment, the oil industry tanking, the agriculture sector being held hostage with Chinese/US dispute, the manufacturing industry (auto) falling apart and a new NAFTA (USMCA) not being as good for Canada as it used to be. How screwed is Canada? Thanks from Edmonton, AB

I hope cruse lines are toast they're pure evil.

Useful info, more value than speculations and accusations.

I’m just here for Blyth’s accent.

Awesome picture in the background

very worthwhile ! thank you gentlemen

They have been using the price of oil to raise the price of food for the last ten years, now it's .99 gallon where I live. Are they reducing the price of food? WTF!!!!!!

I want to see Mark Blyth and peter zeihan have a chat.

Taking us to school....thanks you two!!! :-)

Fascinating discussion, very interesting.

We are drowning in oil. The oil companies don't know what to do with the stuff. The fuel at the pump prices went down, but not nearly enough. I filled up the tank a month ago (it was still half full) and still have half a tank. I drive around sometimes, just to get out of the house and I still have half a tank. The car companies have acres and acres of unsold cars! Do I want to buy a car now? NO! Jeez, maybe I'll sell the car I have and buy a bike!

Great discussion, thanks for posting.

Did you re-upload this?

Gas prices are more a reflection of pipeline carrier wants than the price of gas at the field. As to the link between gas and oil, it's often inverse,

There was no 'negative price for oil' in the real sense. It's an over stated situation since long term prices id not substantially change and virtusally no oil was sold at those negative prices. All that happened is an over supply that resulted in storage issues which is similar to happens in a supply chain or where a continuous manufacturing line has a minor glitch and there is ripple wave that runs down the chain until the minor glitch is resolved. Somewhat like what happens on the freeway when rubberneckers slow down to see an accident and there is concertina that slows traffic back down the line.

3 points on climate change: 1. even with all the economic stoppages covid has caused our emissions are only down around 8% year on year, a drop in the bucket when you consider we are 25 years past 350 ppm red line. 2. Renewables under capitalism = a sick joke. To convert just the vehicles of the USA to electric requires the utter decimation of the remains of this world to get the resources needed to do it, billion of tonnes of lithium from a world that after a decade of ramp up still only produces 77,000 a year and no matter how many coups western countries sponsor in Bolivia in order to secure their massive lithium reserves that figure is unlikely to rise to the numbers needed to accomplish moving the economy and assets over to a renewably powered electric future for many decades if ever. As for other materials, we need cobalt from child and slave miners in piss poor african nations, more than we have mined over the last 200 years, within the next 20 to transfere capitalism as is, and many other materials too at even insaner amounts compaired to what is possible. And remember, this is just for the vehicles, never mind all the infrastructure, of which for the US to be fully renewable has to tripple the size of its energy grid and to keep below 2oC it has to do this within 20 years, and then to keep up with the perpetual growth of capitalism doubling consumptions of many materials and energies over 30 year periods you have to double all that infrastructure again to keep up, ecologically devastating entire nations and the world to do so. 3. You can't solve the dual symptoms of climate change and ecological collapse due to over consumption, with more of the cause, which is capitalism, and its demand for infinite perpetual growth to stave off its collapse. No amount of electric cars, solar panels, green new deals, taxes, regulations, nor any technology today, nor any coming down the road, will ever be capable of allowing an infinite growth consumption based anti democratic economic such as capitalism, to outrun the immutable physics governing a finite world. Capitalism is a socioeconomic belief system, the laws of physics are immutable, and they do not give a crap if anyone finds what I have written here difficult to swallow. Those laws will do what they are doing in response to what we are doing and have done, no matter our protests at that. The trouble with neoclassical economists is they rarely give two shits about the cost to society and planet of getting resources, those are externalities to their mind set which is why Jeff Colgan is pleased about electric cars, almost excitable, without factoring in any of what I have just stated.

To hell with oil,

I could listen to Mark Blyth say "tertiary" all day.

If gov owns oil then no opposition would be allowed. When Canada bought the pipeline from Alberta to the coast We knew it would be approved.

Get the Kindle version of a book written by Benoit Mandelbrot called "The (Mis)Behavior of Markets". Yes, he of fractal fame. Anyway, what I did not know was that Professor Mandelbrot had been active for many years in trying to understand the price movements of commodities and stocks. Everyone assumed the price movements were linear but it didn't look that way to Mandelbrot, a mathematician by training. The book details his gradual discovery that price movements are clusters of fractal movements and definitely not linear. This probably applies to oil price movements, as well, I would assume.

One could argue that in times of peace (as much as the US can claim there is) the oil consumption of the US military is 2-3% but in the case of a total war the military oil consumption would dominate the market.

*☼ HEY! IT'S THAT DUDE FROM THE JIMMY DORE SHOW!*

Molten salt reactors are the answer, not only for energy but rare earth's as well.

It appears that the economic system is focused on oil instead of the things that we need...like air and food. Isn't it time for us to make the shift?

Russia is also dependent on oil and natural gas exports.

If Trump put a tariff on Saudi Arabia, that would be the end of the Petro dollar and Dollar itself look just spiral down even faster。

A couple of questions that I didn't hear asked. For companies that depend on oil and gas as the raw material for production and sales, I'd argue that they should be buying deflated futures stacked as far out as possible. So, even if the economy rebounds, oil and gas will remain depressed? Is that valid and might that actually be a cost/benefit disincentive to convert to green energy?

Cynthia - no healthcare - but let’s take care of the oil industry - right? Thorium energy needs to be utilized as well as water - so any and all energy that is possible - is accessible. It’s always a good idea to have alternatives - so there may be other options - and no limits

Should we stock up and keep this cheap oil in the pool, or tub?

"Generally, we've never seen oil prices go negative before in basically a century and a half of the oil markets." Generally and basically, yes.

26:10 - "higher than $40 you attract new production...so don't see it going much higher than that". What? The rig count was falling throughout 2019 with oil above $55. Production growth in the U.S. was teetering even at $60. Btw, he says at 26:43 that oil started 2020 at $70. No, that's Brent. US production mostly depends on WTI pricing which started the year at ~$60. A trend over the past couple years in the shale patch that's not discussed is termed 'high grading'. Shale producers have been drilling more of their best producing land in difficult pricing environments (much of the last 5 years). They've exhausted most of this acreage, which means every dollar they spend on drilling now gets less out of the ground. Sure, they'll get more at $40 than $25, but only marginally. We won't see meaningful growth until $60+, and even then the US will never reach their peak production rate. This is what peak oil is about. We hit a peak at a certain price level, for a certain type of resource. Conventional reservoir production peaked long ago, prices increased to allow shale and offshore to grow. Shale is now in permanent decline, unless prices get high enough. But obviously absolute production from all sources must peak at some point. We're talking about NON-RENEWABLE resources. Please stick to macro and politics if you don't know the essential details required to dig in to a certain industry.

What happened to peak oil?

☼ 27:00 peak oil lol

Mark Blyth should interview Martin Armstrong from Armstrongeconomics.Com Stephanie Kelton, Steve Keen, Jim Rogers, Jim Richards Peter schiff, Michael Hudson, and other economists that have a large following on KZfaq.

Is it possible we could have a W shaped severe recession?

So if the price of oil is rock bottom and storage capacity is full , who is still buying the oil being produced? Could it be speculators waiting for economies to open up?

CORRECTION at 22min for comment on steel having to be made for windmills using coke: as renewable energy sector is faced with overproduction and low / negative prices the circular production models for steel are becoming economically viable in places like Australia, South Asia and North Europe. (Mix of Energy and carbon capture, green hydrogen process and arc furnaces). www.ssab.co.uk/news/2019/11/ssab-to-be-first-to-market-with-fossilfree-steel grattan.edu.au/report/start-with-steel/

Oil goes into plastics doesn't it? Not mentioned here...

The consumer pay the tariffs because price of the commodity go up and the the government gets the tariff. Thus we the consumer gets a massive tax increase.

Comes down to storage capacity, dropping prices to beg buyers to take it off their hands . All that north slope and tar sands oil is crappy quality crude full of sulfer expensive to refine and usually sold cheaper since yield per barrel is poor. Canada has been subsidizing their oil sand production for years since it cost more to extract than its financial returns. US sells it north slope oil as primarily bunker fuel. US sells all it production on the global market instead just relying on domestic needs. So US has been overproducing . The overall global demand has been on a long declining slope for years while everyone simultaneously continue to ramp up production. Oil industry bailout is just another bank bailout since their debt is to the banks , which assumed the risk when they approve the loans. I'm tired of bailing out banks. Saudi accelerated the crash by slashing prices just as the economy collapsed.

American businesses are not truly capitialist any longer, they seem more feudal, or neo feudal . Some families seem to have extreme lines of succession over several generations. Hence the poor management in so many sectors. When greed and wealth become the prime motivation you are at the end of empire, not the beginning.

To what extent is the opportunity that this unusual oil shock affords for switching to Green and renewable sources *actually* going to result in that switch? In other words will there be a gadarene rush to try and get back to the business as usual that is destroying the planet?

I wonder to what extent analysts take into account the longer term threat to the ICE resulting from medical institutional advice on the harmful effects of particulates and gases on the residents of european/subcontinent/asian mega cities ..........and the impending legislation instigated by the administrators ?

They didn't bail out the small businesses, the banks gave it to their large clients defeating the purpose of the small business bailout.

This man does not speak with the required cynicism of his role. Mark seethes this.

I don't understand the definition of bad, so some Oil Sheik can buy one ferrari instead of two, how is that bad? People in the USA hitting unemployment is bad as they go from low amount of cash, to no cash, but how can it be super bad that someone go from having a little less profit, they are still making money.

A Scot and a Canadian making sense on the US. lol

"Peak Oil" .... LOL, I remember laughing hard at the people who talked about Peak Oil back about 20 years ago. Relative to where we are, our consumption, and the global carbon constraints, Peak Oil is completely irrelevant.

or the USG could just "print" $$$

I do get a kick out of the reference to climate denial.

isn't the Brics group looking to divert from US$ ?

30K views.... not a surprise.

Why aren't gas prices negative? I'd gladly gas up and be paid.

Besides Norway, what commodity driven country has fiscal reserves and is not running a deficit.

Something isn't quite right here... I grew up in Southeastern Ohio (rural Washington County t be specific) and every farmer I knew had one or more oil wells on their property. They routinely capped the wells when prices were down and opened them up again when prices were better. Granted, these were small time wells, but I would think the principle would hold and scale up. Any petroleum engineers out there that can set me straight?

What's stopping you guys from inviting a political and industry person into the conversation by the last half? Maybe by phone?

There is an opportunity here that is actually very simple (if not simplistic in implementation) if we have the courage to finally examine it. All these future energy "problems" assume we keep consuming and living in the way we have been accustomed to, instead of radically changing our consumption and production patterns en masse. We know infinite growth in economic terms is a destructive sham, so why then do we believe this is not the case for our energy consumption? The red herring many go seeking is searching for some miracle energy tech to maintain our current way of life, because we don't have the courage to flexibly adapt to our reality. Even if we find a magic energy solution, by not bringing our environmental resources into the equation to be balanced with properly ascribed values, we will ensure that our behaviours remain unchanged. It will likely drive our consumption off the charts. The positive is to look at what has happened in very short term with the massive reduction in consumption. Granted it took us ALL on an individual level to be impacted directly by something external in the short term to take coordinated action. Nevertheless it has been amazing to see that we can given the motivation of self preservation. If we lengthen our short sighted self preservation machines to not just the next few months or years we can shift the entire way we structure our global civilisation that don't exhibit such a massive rape-y imbalance with our environment and can be supportive of our population for centuries to come. We all need to self reflect incredibly hard. I know people argue it's not the little guys that matter, it's industry etc, but who the hell produces the labour for these industries? Who buys all the crap we produce? We at least have some time left before automation and robotics takes that power away from us too. They are trying to cut human labour out of the equation of production asap. Why? So they control the entire pipeline. Robots don't go on strike. The virus is a gift. Not to diminish the loss of people but we have a major opportunity. Will it be taken, or will we scurry back to the status quo where the uber powerful sociopaths control almost everything and consolidate even more? They have for sure been using this time extremely productively for their own self interests. Have we?

farmers are dumping milk & eggs but cows and chickens will continue to do their thing...seems like you can't stop producing oil either...but you can't just dump it out on the back 40....

I'm making a prediction today: If Mark ever becomes famous enough to be portrayed in a movie, they'll cast Simon Pegg to play him. (Think reprise of his "Scotty" role in Star Trek.) Anyone think differently? :)

The Mother of reboning all the Hams and the Father of Unbaking all the Cakes. That is the economic task ahead for our species. A time/carbon/scarcity denomination/valuation may not be unlikely. Oh who am I kidding, 3 wheat for 2 wood anyone?

Particularly since Saudi Arabia exports very little oil to the US，nothing again from this tarrif。

It's disappointing to hear the notion of peak, oil being laughed at. Peak oil is a mathematical certainty. Look at the production of any oil field in the world and it follows a bell curve. Therefore in the long term the industry as a whole must follow an aggregate curve. The only question is how many more unconventional oil fields there are to tap and if the money and will exists to do it. Peak oil as a social, economic, and political issue though is rightly being totally overshadowed by other issues like climate change. We may never reach the peak of possible physical oil production because we ruin the environment and destroy our civilisation, but that doesn't mean that the concept - and what can be learned from it about the costs and problems associated with resource extraction - should be laughed away. In doing that we miss a valuable lesson.

Natural Gas below Solar ?? - I call BS less than $0.03/Kw - cheapest Natural Gas I think is $0.07 half that? today? but we have to add transmission costs $0.02 to $0.12 produce on your factory roof, no transmission cost.

Stock market rising due to persistent assurance of The Greenspan Put.

Oil volatility is nothing. Solar and Wind has daily volatility. Look at a power production chart for a solar farm that includes the time-period in which a cloud passes overhead. Renewable energy requires grid level energy storage to be stable and competitive.

Venezuela is the new Somalia ☹️

Could this herald the end of the petrodollar??

"Venezuela, a mess". No word about the causes of that mess, about the economic and clandestine war of the US and its satellite states against Venezuela.

We Are not getting away from oil anytime soon... we had cheap oil and gas before Covid... Now we have Historically cheap Oil and Gas! What do you think people are going to do when they get off Covid Restrictions? Travel everywhere and anywhere! :)

"If China dumps all their treasuries it will destroy their national savings." That assumes the US economy will recover and the USD holds its value. If the US economy /usd was going to crash, wouldn't it be safer for china to sell all its treasuries and get out early?

Talk about nuclear energy

Can you two be any more ignorant about the shortfalls of green energy? Michael Moore and environmental reporter Jeff Gibbs describe the failings of green energy in their new documentary, “Planet of the Humans.” The film may prove to be the most explosive and influential exposé ever made. The producers rereleased the film on Earth Day. It is currently streaming for free on KZfaq. Presently, the only viable sources of non-CO2 emitting energy are Hydro and Nuclear.

A simple. Were fucked would suffice✌️

Scotland will end multi c in

Restaurant to close. 7 more months of sarcasm. Too stupid. Proud highway robbers? S 3 cops.

hello,, I was disappointed when Jeff Colgan explained peak oil,, we are past peak oil, exploration has peak,, for easy sweet oil that takes little effort to extract and cost little to produce,, , when Exxon/Mobil or any other big oil company's have to drill off shore or frack,, puts our environment air water in peril that tells one that oil is no longer in the earth,,,, it is true we have a lot of oil, yet not many leading country's are finding new on shore wells, or sweet oil that will cost little to pump or refine,, it is a matter of time the oil the world has been operating has been discovered during the late 60's and early mid 70's, will deplete , technology has improve resulting in off shore drilling and fracking, well not so safe,, couple accidents in Gulf,, well anyway,, the demand will be less because of crisis world is experiencing, yet when all of this subsides and normalcy re-boots,, lol,, demand will be serious,, and country's fall victim to IMF to pay their defaults they are experience now,, many have already are going under,, when all this occurs oil will be as high as $150 give or take,, the big country's that are producers will benefit,, and the rest well use ones imagination,, TAKE OVER,, they are waiting for that to occur,, perhaps even war,, the supply chains and air lines , any other big industries that depend on oil to operate well use ones imagination,, TAKE OVER,,, or war,, Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, will or maybe be world leaders, US, well say good by to US HEGEMONY,, well what happens TAKE OVER, WAR WAR WAR,, so Mr, Blyth talk about US dollar in all of this and what happens to the egos of our leaders,, well use one's imagination,, WAR WAR WAR,,

Mark asks questions as if he doesn't know the answers.

do you really understand this?

Bailing out oil & Peak oil: There is no good way to bail out oil when if we burned all that we had above ground presently we would emit sufficient Co2 to push us over the +2oC line. Although I am glad these conversations are being had but it is 20 years late. As for what happened to peak oil, it happened. Most major oil fields are in decline and the rate of new finds has fallen to a blip compared to 60 years ago at its peak but capitalism demands cheap fossil fuel to be viable, so technologies were employed to frack the trapped oil and gas from porous rock which has been filling in the decline of conventional oil on global markets. As for fracking wells they are an ecological disaster, lasting only a hand full of weeks before a new shaft must be drilled they swiss cheeses entire sections of the natural beauty of america. Thousands upon thousands of capped, cracked, dead, damaged wells leaking the remnants of over 500 different chemicals used in the process into the ground water in order to recover lower grade oil and gas that pound for pound has a similar energy density to a box of breakfast cereal. The energy returned on energy invested for a conventional on land well is 1 to 100, for a fracking well it ranges from 1 to15 to 1 to 8. But hey, who cares about destroying tomorrow so long as we can shop today.

Fing Blythe, an absolute ignoramus, that knows how it all works. It's quite something to see. "you see this shit? What I want, is more of all of that." Not even kidding. Does the Joker know he's the bad guy?

We need oil production it’s security for everyone.

why would you expect a vaccine in 12 months when we have yet to see any studies....have you ever heard of long term studies being needed.......I will now consider if I will ever listen to you again...

Stop grinning all the time man.

Glad Blyth isn't on RT this time. Wasn't a great way to maintain credibility, Mark.