The Future is Dark (Then Bright)

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Күн бұрын

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A hard rain's a-gonna fall.
0:00 Intro
1:34 Our history block
3:20 The climax of our millennial crisis
4:03 Support for The Spirited Man
5:29 A Fourth Turning prophecy
7:29 The Fourth Turning is here
8:23 WWII history block vs millennial history block
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A pioneer in digital filmmaking, Van Neistat made his first internet video, The Holland Tunnel, in 2000. He went on to collaborate with New York City artist Tom Sachs, directing a series of short films shown at the Guggenheim Museum in Berlin. Van has since directed dozens more films for the Tom Sachs Studio. In 2010 HBO aired The Neistat Brothers, an 8-episode series of short videos made entirely by Van and his brother Casey Neistat. Van Neistat’s directorial debut feature, A SPACE PROGRAM, co-written by Tom Sachs, premiered at the 2015 South by Southwest Film Festival and opened in theaters nation-wide in spring, 2016. In 2018 Neistat Directed the short film Paradox Bullets, co-written with Tom Sachs, narrated by Werner Herzog, and starring Ed Rushca. Neistat has written and directed commercial projects for Nike, Hurley, Kate Spade, Tory Burch, J. Crew, Twitter, Sleepy Jones and Frances Valentine. His work has been exhibited in museums throughout the world. He lives in Topanga, California.
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Пікірлер: 606

@vanneistat 10 ай бұрын

Visit my sponsor betterhelp.com/VanNeistat for a 10% discount on your first month of therapy.

@TheTolga1996 10 ай бұрын

Van sir, can I visit you for a day or two and help you out with something (anything!) in return for meeting you and possibly learning from you (anything!!!)? I'm not weird please don't worry. I can send you my cv which is filled with stuff that is totally unrelated to what I am asking for but I thought mentioning it would make this extra funny. I'm willing to assist you with any task, no matter how menial or absurd, in exchange for the opportunity to meet you in person and bask in your infinite wisdom! (will give further details if you consider)

@JacksonMack3742 10 ай бұрын

I got my money on 2032..

@Rezin_8 10 ай бұрын

I intended a impatient therapeutic community.... And believe better help is on the right path.... What we need now is a Meta room.... Where peers can practice confrontations

@Soramek 10 ай бұрын

Hilarious. Yes we all need therapy! Dark times.... Hopefully the second part of the series will give some hope or some laughs? I know you are not a comedian but its getting a bit too dire... I was a climate activist almost 30 years ago, and since the Covid pandemic I have learned that my mental health and my real time real life experience is all that matters. We are all trying to survive this glorious mess as best we can. The lie is that humans as a group have evolved. My feeling is that we repeat the same mistakes in different forms for thousands of years. Civilizations come and go, but surviving is for most of us all we can do. For those with power and the cash, they will always be shielded from the storm, unless like the French people did, we take it all back and say enough.

@dustyoldhat 10 ай бұрын

Van it would be good for you (and a lot of other creators who take BH sponsorships) to look into the actual company and how they treat their therapists and how their business model operates. You might be less likely to accept such a sponsorship if you look behind the curtain.

@Robmalone 10 ай бұрын

The predictions aren't impressive if you actually read the book. The book doesn’t predict specific events like 9/11. It suggests the possibility of a terrorist group targeting an airplane. Unfortunately, this has occurred 86 times in history. It doesn't pinpoint a singular budget crisis; it predicts a budget stalemate, something we've seen 22 times since 1976 due to federal government shutdowns. The mention of an economic downturn is hardly prophetic since there have been 48 recessions on record. It doesn't specifically forecast a global pandemic; it indicates that the CDC announces a disease outbreak in a densely populated area, leading to fatalities. There have been 249 pandemics throughout recorded history, so this is far from a unique prediction. It doesn't predict the conflict in Ukraine; it suggests that tensions in a former Soviet republic would lead to Russian military exercises-a situation that has unfolded 44 times since the fall of the Soviet Union. No one can predict the future, but history is littered with people who have made a fortune from fools who believe it's possible.

@josephk1342 10 ай бұрын

Great comment.

@mountaincruiser817 10 ай бұрын

True . This works like the horoscope predictions. If you want to see the evidence you'll find it if your creative enough. Also not sure if it's such a good idea to promote these kinds of books in these challenging times.

@Apotheosis01 10 ай бұрын

im so glad someone typed this out so I didn't have to

@mattypon 10 ай бұрын

That is exactly the point the book makes, such events occur all the time however people react differently to them depending on the 20 year block they are living in

@filip.simonka 10 ай бұрын

You are missing the point completely. No one is predicting excatly to the point what is going to happen; it says that "something along those lines" is going to happen. And as everything is based on turnings of roughly 20 years, it is possible to somewhat accurately predict the events that will unfold, be it great, positive events or dark, not so nice and negative events. It is not about predicting a future, nor is it trying to make a fortune making anyone believe it's possible to do that. It is a warning to all generations.

@bender844 10 ай бұрын

I don't think I've ever looked into a grand narrative theory like this without it inevitably falling apart. But I think the feeling of clarity and order they give people who crave it is too powerful for them to ever go away.

@bender844 10 ай бұрын

Hearing you say 1997 was all cool and showing a clip of a Will Smith music video is kind of the perfect illustration of the worst kind of reductive narrative construction that leads people to totally misunderstand history and, consequently, misunderstand modern politics and culture. Really frustrating stuff.

@dustyoldhat 10 ай бұрын

I'm with you. I value 95% of Van's videos highly, but this stuff is just hogwash. It's completely subjective and gives away when you poke at it enough. People crave orderly explanations, but history just doesn't work that way. To start with, history is a fragmented occurence at best, entirely dependent on who is doing the telling (See: Rashomon, etc) and the idea that it can be subdivided into tidy epochs based on a tightly curated list of events is ludicrous. It is on the level of people who put stock in causation from things like "Saturn Return" and "Mercuy in Retrograde" - it's simply the human mind desperately trying to order its subjective experience based on external explainers. The choice of events to illustrate the turnings just feels so contrived and narrow. For example, Van claims that the late 90s was all about cool music and the internet. I remember participating in violent and what felt like groundbreaking anti-corporate, anti-globalist protests in Seattle and Los Angeles (and were happening all over the world) - in which the people united to raise a voice against corporate hegemony and decry corporate greed in politics. We were taking a stand against corporate control over the lives of people all over the world, via the WTO and World Bank and other global corporate instruments. (At this time it was a far left movement, my how things change.) This led to the famous Battle of Seattle and later protests at the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, where we shut down Los Angeles and Chicago making the very obvious point that there was no real difference between the political parties when they were both controlled by corporations and global conglomerates (policy platforms notwithstanding). History is never so cut and dry - it is not tidy. For one segment of the population things might be terrible crisis-riddled while another is living carefree and unbridled by any stressors. I am disappointed with Van's heavy leaning on this content. @@bender844

@stefpix 10 ай бұрын

⁠@@dustyoldhatyour reply is one of the best comments. You should consider posting it as a top comment. Maybe a little more succinct. Books like these sell some sort of reassurance, comparable to horoscopes or religious mythology. Many can’t deal with our chaotic reality. History may have patterns at times, but never repeats itself

@natebaird 10 ай бұрын

Spot on! There is some comfort in having catastrophe on the horizon, maybe similar to having a heaven when you die; something to look forward to that helps keep from fully inhabiting the present moment.

@Profile.4 9 ай бұрын

@@dustyoldhatbro said hogwash 🥶

@c0mputer 10 ай бұрын

I would like to see a counter video arguing why these books are bullshit.

@VitorMadeira 10 ай бұрын

They are BS because it shows the point of view of an american (USA) author. But nowadays world is far than just USA as it used to be. The book's author point of view is quite outdated.

@Rufio1975 10 ай бұрын

Why don't you do that?

@Rufio1975 10 ай бұрын

@@VitorMadeira The only point of view you can show is the one you have at that present time. It doesn't make it bullcrap. You work with what you have. And besides, just because something is old, it doesn't automatically make it irrelevant. There are thousands of "outdated" books that still apply and people still read after hundreds of years.

@mattchensan 10 ай бұрын

Its ideas are applied pretty arbitrarily. That part when he said "we had none of these in the 90s!" Is wrong, there are examples for everything he pointed out. A couple big ones are the LA Riots and the Gulf War.

@tingol10 10 ай бұрын

It's absolutely BS, his model literally skips over world wars (Yet he includes 9/11 and the millenial crisis???) which were 30 years apart. You can pick any period in time and make these claims, just make sure to ignore all the events that don't match your model. Dumb shit, kinda sad to see a free thinker fall for this.

@hendrikmiller6699 10 ай бұрын

It is true, that you have to take these books with a grain of salt. It also is very america centric and may not apply to all cultures. BUT what happens in America still has consequences for large parts of the world. As a European i can certainly see some resemblances to my own experience. “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” said Mark Twain and I think that is still very true as well. Godspeed everyone.

@noitesdevento 10 ай бұрын

wise

@HansLiu23 10 ай бұрын

This book was written by an American, this video was made by an American, and uploaded onto an American owned website. Of course it's American.

@fluxpistol3608 10 ай бұрын

Dito as an Australian I see the pattern here too. Especially as we tend towards following Americas lead as we are such a young country too

@hendrikmiller6699 10 ай бұрын

@@HansLiu23 please don’t take it as criticism, when i wrote it’s America centric. I bought the book, but haven’t read it yet. But i guess, that a lot of the topics in it can be applied to European or other “western” societies. Nonetheless it would be interesting to see how history blocks look like in Russia or China for example.

@cdbosh 8 ай бұрын

Its American bias is pretty simple to explain. Not because the author is American, although still a relevant factor. It’s because within the larger cycles of world history there is always a world-dominating “empire”. (See another hedge-fund manager-turned historian for more on that: Ray Dalio) The current (waning) empire is the American one, but the immediately preceding one was the British Empire. Hence why their examination of Anglo-American history of saeculum is relevant - these are the dominant world empires for modern history. Also, he says that other countries/regions will have their own beat-markers, but the rhythm is the same: a saeculum. Additionally, he says that world wars and the “shrinking” of the world has started to “sync up” other regions and cultures to the dominant “pulse” of the American cycle of turnings. I guess we will see how much of that pans out as we conclude this crisis season over the next decade…

@mjpaynewales 10 ай бұрын

The question is can you find big important positive and negative events or trends within each 20 (or so) year block. Be it financial, health, political, conflictual (notice each 80 year block differs). If so, then it will always be possible to construct a narrative arc of any structure you want between 4 such periods.

@jaredvw 10 ай бұрын

exactly.. every 20 year chunk of time could be in the "Awakening" phase... just have to pick out the events that fit your narrative

@Definite_Dave 10 ай бұрын

This is my exact thought on this. Too easy to run a string line through all of these events to construct a doomsday narrative

@OliverWallaceStories 10 ай бұрын

Yeh, it's greatly based on confirmation bias - describe a pattern, point at some emotive facts that uphold that pattern and then the pattern making brain inherent to being human starts doing the work of supporting that pattern.

@dustyoldhat 10 ай бұрын

Well said. @@OliverWallaceStories

@nafizahmed9840 10 ай бұрын

wish you were more critical of the book. it is filled with anomalies

@gerolds 10 ай бұрын

80 years is about the time it takes to forget all lessons learned by a society and attributing them to myth, to different times, to circumstances. Nobody is left alive with first hand experience that actually sees the same patterns in their infancy, while a new generation is about ready to make the same mistakes all over again on a large enough scale, albeit in a new context.

@hendrikmiller6699 10 ай бұрын

Well said, great comment! Maybe humans are biologically destined to repeat history over and over again. It’s like two steps forward and one step back after each history block, because somehow humans manage that there is still a little bit progress left. :)

@scottcolpitts8521 10 ай бұрын

I was literally just watching his old 4th turning video. Crazy.

@Christine.Baraka 10 ай бұрын

I've been waiting for this video. I didn't know there was a new book. Will be picking that up asap

@khaledtribes 10 ай бұрын

KZfaq recommending this at 11:30pm is such a 4th turning move

@nosaj666 10 ай бұрын

thank you Van

@HGaming-rc5vc 10 ай бұрын

Loved the visuals of this video.

@uglycouzin 10 ай бұрын

This and your video on the first book are my two favorite videos of The Spirited Man.

@C_Haberstoked 10 ай бұрын

Excited to see part 2

@ROFLitsJobe 10 ай бұрын

Question for Van: do you think the people in what we think are previous turnings also thought they were in the fourth turning? It's all very subjective seeming to me

@kjpw147 10 ай бұрын

I was thinking this also. We have been in perpetual war since korea but I guess it’s applied directly to our American culture

@scrivener3389 10 ай бұрын

@@kjpw147I was thinking this as well

@ronaldmmiller 10 ай бұрын

The first thing that came to mind was WWI for me… WWI, Spanish Flu, Then the Roaring 20’s, Civil unrest into WWII… That would be an 80 year block in 20-25 years? I’m skeptical, seems subjective.

@nin114 10 ай бұрын

Yip. Whenever I go off on a doom rant about modern times my father reminds me of living through the Cuban Missile Crisis in 62', probably the closest we have ever come to complete nuclear annihilation. It is kind of the "make American great again" argument. This idea that things used to be so much better than they are now. For a lot of people It was never really that great in the first place...

@Nooticus 10 ай бұрын

@@nin114 exactly. can you believe that he ACTUALLY said with a straight face "political distress, social distress, ecological distress, military distress. we had none of these things in 1997". That absolute rubbish says it all really. Van is clearly some sort of conspiracy theorist and is veiling it in most of his videos (not the one about the economic crisis though, remember that one...?) I can't support a conspiracy nut like him. I've been subscribed and watched since the day Van created his channel but now I'm out I think. I might come back in future, might not.

@tamasjakaba2941 10 ай бұрын

Quality was excellent the content was great as always. Keep up the good work

@Nicknoltiiiiiii 10 ай бұрын

What a great video! Thank Van!

@peter8261 10 ай бұрын

I kind of think The Fourth Turning is bull shit. It's very vague about its propositions and it seems much more intelligent than it is because people attribute specific events to the book after they have happened. I mean, look at a few of the distresses that are supposed to be "new" to our age. Economic Distress: This happened when the Nikkei 225, which is the main stock index of Japan, crashed between 1989-1990 and hasn't recovered since. Social Distress: This happened with The LA Riots of 1992. I mean, in 2023 you can literally have a full time job from your house. You can start a KZfaq channel and make 6-figures on a Patreon and then sell sponsorship slots. We are not in a crisis. The reality of the world is completely subjective.

@737T1C130 10 ай бұрын

Great vid. It makes me theorize that our Crisis is not the product of a person, a people, a particular belief, or style of government, but an immutable cycle of nature that we must endure. Some of us will handle it better than others, but those who do not handle it well are merely struggling to figure it all out. Hopefully your efforts help them.

@kyleebrock 9 ай бұрын

But the elite know how easy we are to manipulate in these waves.

@TSGEnt 10 ай бұрын

Very good. Thank you. Looking forward tot he next installment.

@MrVisde 10 ай бұрын

Interesting theory. I wonder how it holds up with other cultures, or is it specifically an American thing?

@scrivener3389 10 ай бұрын

That’s what I was thinking. It seems very focused on American and western culture. Maybe it’s addressed in the books but it doesn’t seem at first glance to apply to the rest of human history in other parts of the world.

@tomsmusts 10 ай бұрын

books are focused on U.S. specifically yes, I feel like each country could develop their own seculums (perhaps with stages being in a different order too?). Coming from eastern europe, i think it's possible to entertain the idea that eastern block is experiencing this in an opposite order: crisis -> unraveling -> consciousness -> high

@GrecoFPV 10 ай бұрын

It’s the same for Greece

@jachymr 10 ай бұрын

@@tomsmusts the millennial saecullum applies to Eastern Europe pretty well: post WW2 high - Uprisings around the 1960s (repressed by USSR) - Revolutions of 1989 (successful) - Economic crisis of 2008

@alejandromedina1019 10 ай бұрын

Cuba has been in the crisis stage for half a century

@AX1.1 10 ай бұрын

Thank you ❤ for another great video !

@jimjones7980 10 ай бұрын

How does the Korean War (1950 to 1953) and the Vietnam War (1955 to 1975) and then we had multiple covert actions and a secret war or two up until the Gulf War I and beyond? We're constantly deploying troops into conflicts around the world and have been doing so for most of our nation's history.

@WayneStratton 10 ай бұрын

Amazing

@Luismms95 10 ай бұрын

Can't wait for part 2

@RICHHYY 10 ай бұрын

So informative I love it!

@BOBFudge 4 ай бұрын

"A scary book that somehow gives me a piece of mind." Your original Fourth Turning video led me to read the book and subsequently become a "raving lunatic about the future" and see patterns in societal behaviors. I am currently reading The Fourth Turning Is Here and it's as mind-blowing as the first book.

@REVIEWSONTHERUN 10 ай бұрын

Thanks for sharing it. ✌️

@RyanFrechettePokerVlog 10 ай бұрын

So good bro!

@77magicbus 7 ай бұрын

Great summary. Your videos are the best. Love your music and style here. Very simply explained and artfully done. thanks

@1strule00 10 ай бұрын

that has to be one of the best placed better help ads... 'we're going to war, either with ourselves or the world, you're gonna need therapy.'

@Jordan_Moore 10 ай бұрын

I'm not 100% sure I agree with all of this, but what I do know is that I loved watching this film!

@kylethecreator 10 ай бұрын

Please talk about your concerns, I want to see the flaws you see?

@tingol10 10 ай бұрын

@@kylethecreator Uhm dude, we had a Great war never before seen in magnitude and then 30 yrs later there was WW2. Where's the 80 yrs in between? It's always the same with these 'time is a flat circle!' type of bs books. I can pick any period length I like and I can find you proof that I'm right, I'll just ignore the 1000 examples of why I'm wrong in the process though. People just see what they want to in the end.

@thomassymonds5300 10 ай бұрын

@@tingol10Exactly what I thought. "A crisis in 2004, +3 or -3 years" - that's a very big margin. And with knowledge of history and current affairs, a lot things are quite easy to predict. Also agree that the video was great entertainment, as per usual 😊

@thomassymonds5300 10 ай бұрын

(and may I add, that "America freed Europe" is a very American thing to say. If we have to chose one nation, Russia freed Europe. The US definitely helped out (cheers) but then also planned out the economic and military contrôle of Europe. Which is partly why Russia is now attacking Ukraine (not an excuse though, just one of the many reasons).

@m.s.35 10 ай бұрын

Yes, and we're going to act like everything in 1997 was just peachy... ok.

@Mimlou 10 ай бұрын

Notification squad!!!

@breadkaczynski 10 ай бұрын

I watched your original video on "The Fourth Turning," and I, too, find a weird sense of comfort from knowing that history repeats itself. It somehow makes me feel solidified in my place on this earth. Knowing I have a role to play on the history of what humans and Americans are and become is comforting for the human experience, I feel. Great video as always, Van. Hope you stay in good health.

@josephk1342 10 ай бұрын

That book is complete nonsense. History doesn’t repeat in simplistic, predictable cycles.

@mr667 10 ай бұрын

History doesn't repeat itself. It may rhyme though.

@viktormomotok1281 10 ай бұрын

The fourth turning is a nuclear war with no new cycle in sight

@burnban3047 10 ай бұрын

it does repeat. every great nation falls. its only a matter of time before a new "great nation/society" takes lead and the cycle continues @@mr667

@burnban3047 10 ай бұрын

it repeats enough to prevent proper progress. humanity not understanding the nature cycles creates social cycles @@josephk1342

@faevoryn6578 10 ай бұрын

I love your videos.

@unkono 10 ай бұрын

Everyone needs to watch this video.

@thaisavidigal1204 10 ай бұрын

Very interesting topic, looking forward to the next video. Important to remember that this is very US centered (and Europe as well). Would love to see how it affects other countries.

@nielshermus 10 ай бұрын

Already half way through 😀💪

@JuggaknotPunch 10 ай бұрын

Another gem!

@Z-M0NEY 9 ай бұрын

Amazing video

@ThexCatmanx 10 ай бұрын

Here before 100 views. And it is a follow-up to my favorite Van Neistat Video. W day.

@stevezytveld6585 10 ай бұрын

I got here at 800 views and 19 comments. - Cathy (&, accidently, Steve), Ottawa/Bytown/Pimisi

@MultiTravellingman 10 ай бұрын

Def makes me not look forward to the next 5-10 years, but that 11th year onwards sound cool. Hope I'm alive to see it.

@jeffdamitz8198 10 ай бұрын

Thank G-d for Jesus Christ, our ark of safety thru these troubled times!!!

@richardreynolds7552 10 ай бұрын

Thanks for that

@higiniopintado7537 10 ай бұрын

If you keep the words and language ambiguous you can predict everything!

@canadude6401 10 ай бұрын

exactly! "I predict many great moments and tragedies in the next 50 years. Mark my words!" LOL

@makeryguy 10 ай бұрын

Outstanding Van.

@adamstarsiak 10 ай бұрын

masterpiece

@MatthewWhyatt 10 ай бұрын

I love this @vanneistat - gives my hope. Thanks

@jimipickle8355 10 ай бұрын

There is perfection and unconditional love in every moment that we call Now. This Now cannot be contained in a clock, compartmentalized in a calendar and has no beginning or no end, unless the people believe so. There is no separation, no duality, no conflict, no peace, there is only THIS NOW. If beliefs dominate thoughts and actions and result in these cycles, then stop believing everything you hear or read…just Be.

@JoshuaThomasGray 10 ай бұрын

i love this betterhelp partnership

@antongavutti4376 8 ай бұрын

We are ready for the BIG ONE

@gbpferrao 10 ай бұрын

Being in the middle of a crisis is a chance for personal growth, and it leads to a more enjoyable high phase afterward, which is bound to come.

@Dennis-de1ji 10 ай бұрын

This theory is heavily flaud as you can Cherry pick everything that fits in and ignore everything else, also misconstrue events to fit in. Also the civil war and a new world war are 2 scenarios intimately familiar to the American collective conscious and feared for as well. All in all Van I totally get your fascination with the concept, as well as the liberating feeling you get from being able to put Life's chaos in a neatly organized box and interpret it through that lense. Afterall you are such an organized person. It doesn't remove from the fact tho that in all likelihood you are buying into this theory more than it's worth! Still Loved the sequel tho!!❤❤❤

@dustyoldhat 10 ай бұрын

Agreed.

@PiecesofVinyl 9 ай бұрын

disagreed

@dustyoldhat 9 ай бұрын

no1currs @@PiecesofVinyl

@dylansousa5571 10 ай бұрын

Van i love your videos

@honeybadgerrr2985 10 ай бұрын

Absolutely love your content. Thanks for giving us some hope in these arduous times.

@visualmaestro77 10 ай бұрын

you know... I started off my Friday in a happy mood

@SticksAandstonesBozo 6 ай бұрын

Stupid KZfaq once again stopped showing me any of your content even though I’m subbed and full my notified.

@xf9068 10 ай бұрын

I remember your first video on this, which I absolutely loved, and which made me go down a rabbit hole of research on this repeating history blocks theory; I found that whilst the theories of these books are compelling and oddly satisfying, fascinating and exciting to think about, they have also been refuted in a variety of ways; don't take the theories as gospel, armageddon/WW3/civil war is absolutely not an inevitable outcome in the next 10 years.

@PetfaxTV 10 ай бұрын

If nobody else notices Van’s perfect pacing over the Echoes by Pink Floyd sounding synth music, I did. I noticed it

@somadood 10 ай бұрын

lovely ty

@ScottBrownCarpentry 10 ай бұрын

I want to read this book now, but first 😢

@jiraph52 10 ай бұрын

Didn't know Scott Brown was a Van Neistat viewer 👀👀👀

@johnconnor4136 9 ай бұрын

Just wanted to comment here to proudly share that I've been sober for 1,452 days.

@ianhutchinson970 7 ай бұрын

Very interesting.

@d.james.martin5844 10 ай бұрын

Video I watched of yours was about turns now we're now full circle

@ipeconick 10 ай бұрын

I love the video, love all of Van's videos to be honest, so much work and care into each one. Not that I'm not entertained by the videos on this fourth turning, but they are of such a nich, american middle class view of history that I simply cannot take it seriously, because that doesn't represent what was happening in 90% of the world in those time periods. But I sure am eager to see the next video hahaha

@TimBryan 10 ай бұрын

Yeah I feel the exact same way. Van has far more credibility in my mind than the authors of this book, they're no better than people who write horoscopes. Van even admitted that he finds the book comforting, it's a natural human reaction to try to find a pattern where there is none. Books like the Fourth Turning exploit that human tendency and the authors will never be held accountable for their claims (probably because their claims are so vague they can claim anything they want to).

@clayalvinothomas9472 9 ай бұрын

Van, what are your favorite podcasts?

@JustJudy 10 ай бұрын

Wow . Hawkes vids sent me here. Glad I watched enlightening

@Rezin_8 10 ай бұрын

Robert Jordan - 'The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgot...

@kylethecreator 10 ай бұрын

Van, I'm so happy to see a second and third video on the fourth turning books! Your first video on first book was actually how I found your channel and statted watching every other video you have!

@joeygraham7023 10 ай бұрын

wheres the 2nd video

@kylethecreator 10 ай бұрын

@@joeygraham7023 this is the second video. His first video was on the first book. Search forth turning and it should come up

@thomashogan5017 10 ай бұрын

Saw your other video on the fourth turning and read both of the books. Puts everything into context. Thanks for doing what you do!

@mimisaiko 10 ай бұрын

I think it's not that the author "predict" things to happen, it's more like the problems are always there, but most of the people are not aware of them and not enough power are trying to fix them, hence they are going to crumble in the near future. It's mesmerizing to see reality as fiction with fatality, but for my understanding, every era is somewhat in crisis, unraveling, awakening and high at the same time, in their own way.

@harshkaranjiya 10 ай бұрын

The new uniform Shirt looks nice. Love your videos.❤

@anguslaird5749 10 ай бұрын

In addition to paying attention to these excellent summaries of The Fourth Turning by Van Neistat, drop all your assumptions about what you think you know about the future. We all suffer from a human cognitive bias called the recency bias. It makes us comfortable extrapolating a forecast of the future based on our most recent experience of life. Here’s what Strauss and Howe do in The Fourth Turning, Jared Diamond does in Collapse, Joseph Tainter does in The Collapse of Complex Societies, Thomas Homer-Dixon does in The Upside of Down, Chris Martenson does in The Crash Course - these learned people let go of all their assumptions about the future, collect and analyze relevant historical and current data, put on their “systems-thinking” caps, and share the concerns and challenges they identify as they conduct their work. Kudos to Van Neistat for putting together these summary videos so people too busy to read can open their minds to ideas that just might save their lives in the long run.

@jessej2634 10 ай бұрын

I love how much work and effort goes into your videos. Keep it going Van!

@TymOLaughlin 10 ай бұрын

always glad to see these videos'. they ground me a bit more every time. will subsequent video (part 3) be on patreon?

@johnfarmakis8518 10 ай бұрын

That’s a good way to put it. A scary book that somehow gives me peace of mind.

@dustyoldhat 10 ай бұрын

Why would an oversimplification of American-centric historical events and vague ominous predictions with fragile basis in reality be "scary"? Only to the naive or undereducated I guess.

@kimcoffee-isaak2921 10 ай бұрын

Gee. That was fun.

@DMWinterburn 10 ай бұрын

Luff u Van. Yes I agree, its easy to see we are in a state of crisis. Fiscal management of most OECD nations are suffering culturally and societally. But as you say there is light at the end of the tunnel.

@mediamfilm 10 ай бұрын

The turnings have put my mind at ease too. It'll be one hell of a hump, but it's comforting to know there's a finish line. There's something comforting about knowing it's not new and that many people have made it through the times we're living through. I'm glad I get to do the hard part in my younger years. Let me retire anywhere else but the 4th turning. So glad you're making more videos about these books. I loved the first video you made a while back. Stoked for part two!

@TheThreatenedSwan 10 ай бұрын

But dysgenics has been happening at an increasing rate since industrialization. Also the previous selective pressures were largely in one direction from ancient times until industrialization.

@TimBryan 10 ай бұрын

@VanNeistat you need to read Fooled By Randomness and give and equally extensive overview. Books like The Fourth Turning are dripping with confirmation bias, and weaponizing the human addiction to prognostication.

@CarlCunningham360 9 ай бұрын

I’ll take Israel for $200 Alex.

@gordonsmith33 7 ай бұрын

@@CarlCunningham360 here it comes!

@owenfrausto9375 10 ай бұрын

I think van saw how well his last 4th turning video went (his most watched video by like a 50% margin as of now) and decided to do a second.

@MegaUtube99 10 ай бұрын

Or he saw how it keeps becoming more and more of a reality. I watched that video when it first came out, bought and read the book, was mind blown and shared it with everyone I knew and it’s become more and more mind blowing to me as it reflects our reality

@dustyoldhat 10 ай бұрын

@@MegaUtube99 Confirmation bias. I could also write a book choosing arbitrary events from history to sculpt a narrative that tells a completey different story, that you would read and agree with due to the omission of countervailing narratives from a different historical perspective. The human mind craves order, and you've fallen victim to confirmation bias.

@fraaz_k 10 ай бұрын

sad

@freek9335 10 ай бұрын

I prefer the unhinged Van with a dentist salary behind his back. Hard rain Van is probably right though.

@JeanDearCanada 10 ай бұрын

As a Canadian, I get to have the pleasure of living in the oilfield between the Americans and the Russians.

@viktormomotok1281 10 ай бұрын

You live under a regime

@monasaksligma 10 ай бұрын

Most Russian people never wanted things that are happening to Russia and the world because of our government. They don't have much time left for their buffoonery. Stay safe, friend!

@JeanDearCanada 10 ай бұрын

@@monasaksligma To be fair, I'm probably more afraid of the Americans.

@winstonzeb2842 10 ай бұрын

Whats going on in Canada is more terrifying to me than what’s happening in America. Both are in a bad place, but without getting to political, Trudeau seems to be in early-middle phases of implementing a Castro like level of socialism. No one seems to be talking about the gravity and weight of his recent moves and thats the scariest part

@JeanDearCanada 10 ай бұрын

@@winstonzeb2842 afraid you're barking up the wrong tree. My biggest criticism is that he isn't bringing about the socialist utopia that he promised, went easy on the fascist mob who attempted a coup with a pile of American money and Canada's dumbest truckers. As I said, I'm afraid of Americans.

@morrisw4284 10 ай бұрын

I like the idea of Saekulum´s, however a problem I see is that the periods are quite restricted to national history instead of being globally applicable. I am german and my grandparents could probably tell you that the years after 1945 were not our "high" period... This seems to be a big problem in the argument since "crisis" for example should be happening across the globe, when there are multiple countries at war or have political struggles, it will always effect the whole system in our globalized world. Still, great video as always Van.

@m.s.35 10 ай бұрын

I mean it's just not how things work. Celebration and high times always come after the darkest period? No, mass trauma and suffering is what follows dark periods

@longlive 10 ай бұрын

большое спасибо

@fluxpistol3608 10 ай бұрын

Here’s a question. Do you think this relates to the Overton’s Window? Is there a correlative pattern?

@sharpfuryz 10 ай бұрын

It feels like I already saw this video two years ago 🤔

@ecksdog 10 ай бұрын

Yes. Recycled infomercial.

@Zackbrooks737 10 ай бұрын

Great podcast with Neil Howe on Glenn Beck recently.

@stevezytveld6585 10 ай бұрын

Thank you for helping to put a frame around the ground that we're all standing on. I look forward to your next video. - Cathy (&, accidently, Steve), Ottawa/Bytown/Pimisi

@arthurzilch3178 10 ай бұрын

Every conspiracy has a hole in it and as the more you read into the more it may have some sense to it but you find out that all we end up having is more questions in said conspiracy to which can't be answered because they are unknown (to which is the hole). Life is one heck of a guessing game.

@MicahPruitt-gv2ll 2 ай бұрын

Generational interations, great book!

@AidenDFrost 10 ай бұрын

His videos spikes my productivity

@Gg_gg9098 10 ай бұрын

Same! When in a slump, when I’m becoming lazy… put on some Spirited Man✌️

@swordandsorcerer 10 ай бұрын

Hmmm. this only seemingly applies largely to the affleunt middle class since 1946 - the working classes have been in a perpetual crisis era since the birth pf the industrial revolution - mainly by being financially exploited by the classes above them who effectively rule the working class as indentured wage slaves - would be cool if someone with Van's/ Casey's reach extended these secelums to include the different cultural and life experiences of different classes in each of these epochs - I fear the only way a revolution will happen now is when the middle classes figure out they are being turned into a the new proto-working class (and amalgamated with the traditional working class) via 'the great reset' amd only then will 'the people' choose the 'rage against the machine'. Hopefully videos like these help this to happen.

@scrivener3389 10 ай бұрын

Agreed

@KentoSky 10 ай бұрын

I am glad to be an artist in this generation.

@canadude6401 10 ай бұрын

I fully appreciate your efforts on bringing light to these cycles Van, however predictions are just that....predictions. I am a big fan of being prepared for what is possible to come, and being proactive, but in this current world many things are messy and utterly unpredictable. I think it's smarter to react and respond well to tragedy WHEN it happens, and not to have constant fear about the next possible thing. I was in my late 20's when 9/11 happened and I had strong fears of the possibility of WW3 with missles going back and forth. Then those fears didn't amount to anything. There is so much fear and anxiety in this world, and much of it needs to be let go. Much like worrying about getting cancer, if it's gonna happen it's gonna happen.

@ripvanstinkle 10 ай бұрын

Dammit…this is mind blowing

@TheUselessEater 10 ай бұрын

Anyone else feel like we don’t have to keep repeating these seculums in the same order? If we stopped acquiescing to the whims of the folks ultra-concerned with gobbling up all the wealth & power, we might just toggle between ‘high’ & ‘awakening,’ with no need to unravel, and future generations only knowing a ‘crisis’ through stories & history books.

@Rezin_8 10 ай бұрын

CW 🪄🌐🕵😇

@DrakeTain 10 ай бұрын

No, I feel like we have to. You can’t sit stagnant in utopia, it always falls aparts and has to be remade.

@kenmack 10 ай бұрын

You fundamentally misunderstand how the cycle works, or why it works. You believe you’re above all powers that have existed for all of humanity and society. You are not. Good intentions maybe, but it’s narcissism at it’s heart.

@PaulHobus 10 ай бұрын

Unfortunately it seems like the patterns repeat because learning from history books (stories) is not as painful and behavior altering as learning from firsthand life experience. Something like “everything civilizations carries the seeds of it’s own destruction” applies here. You think that by removing struggle you make things better for the next generation, but really it makes them weak and prone to bad decisions that destroy things again.

@TheUselessEater 10 ай бұрын

@@kenmack Are you accusing me of being an optimist? Alright. I confess. Guilty as charged. 🫠