The Future of Uncertainties

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Күн бұрын

Black Swans are completely unexpected events (unknown unknowns) that change the world forever. We cannot forecast them, but we can prepare for them through the practice of scenario building. By examining a list of things that seem impossible, and imagining what would have to happen to make those things possible, we can begin to detect patterns in the lead-up to unthinkable events. In this way, we not only make the future less surprising, we can rehearse responses and identify tools that are likely to serve us well in a variety of possible futures.
This video on the “Future of Uncertainties” was commissioned by China Mobile as part of an online course. It is one of 36 lecture videos. A version with Chinese subtitles is available at Citic Migu. citic.cmread.com/zxHtml/listen...
A transcript of the lecture in English is available here: drive.google.com/file/d/1Ef-o...

Пікірлер: 10

@pdelsignore 4 жыл бұрын

I particularly liked when you mentioned 'pandemic' (16:30) as one of the black swans and how would that change the world. So here we are, now re-imagining what a post-covid world looks like. How would our business change? how would we change? Excellent video and thoughts.

@johnadamian 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the lectures The audio in this video seems to only be in the left channel

@HITILIT 4 жыл бұрын

imagining How we end up with future possible scenarios is a fascinating concept...

@davidstambaugh6131 3 жыл бұрын

Thanks for this series. I wonder - would you consider a version of this talk with an example of a past black swan (say iPhones, airplanes, trans-oceanic trade, etc.) to better describe the way it was anticipated and utilized?

@digitalglia6792 4 жыл бұрын

Great content Kevin Kelly! I´ve been following you from a couple of years now and i remember that you said in a talk that you weren´t going to write another book, because a video will have much more views than people that could read that book! I´m happy you are doing that. Do you think i could get in touch with you? I would really love to do a podcast with you about the future for my yt channel. I´m from biotech and i have never heard you talk about it, so it could be interesting for both!

@JeffreyMartin 4 жыл бұрын

Kevin, did you record this before or after the current Black Swan situation had asserted itself? By the way I enjoyed meeting you at EG, and I love your blog posts and books. Thank you for this video series.