This should be required viewing for every college campus. Not sure how you can watch this and not want to irresponsibly funnel money into TSLA lol

Thank You for making this information available to the general public via KZfaq.

When I was a kid in the early 1960’s, EVERYTHING was brought to the block or delivered to the house. We had the fruit truck, the milk man, the ice cream man, the soda man, the egg man, the knife sharpener truck, the amusement park truck, (e.g. the Whip ride that cost a dime), the soap man, etc. It was an oil based economy when gas/diesel trucks were cheap enough to make economic sense for these businesses on wheels to drive around neighborhoods. I’ve been longing for years to have an AFFORDABLE electric truck business in which I could drive around through neighborhoods all day to deliver my goods and/or services, just like in the old days, but this time with clean energy. Tony, how soon do you see that being possible?

I remember finding Tony here on KZfaq back in the day. He confirmed what I was thinking with hard facts and graphs. So glad to see that not only was he correct... it came earlier than even he predicted and it's not done yet!

Tony the savage: “They don’t care about going green, they care about that GREEN!” 😂

I’ve lost family to distracted driving. Been watching the progress of autonomous driving for a while now because of the potential for saving lives. Excited for the full potential of this manufacturing movement.

Awesome Tony. I can’t wait. You rock 🤘🏽Another genius of our generation.

It’s shocking how few actually watch this amazing information. I’m amazed, but it helps me to understand why most of the population is clueless about the inevitable disruption and it’s drivers.

The master of all transformation!

Lol already awaiting SMR to make a vid on this. If you read this comment mate, send me some love 😝 but also thank you Tony for this part 2 👌

The more I see and hear of Tony Seba's predictions for the future, the more I become convinced he is a time traveller. How else can anyone be so accurate with their view of what is to come??🕛

about 20 years ago, I read a book on the end of oil. The author was floored to see an electric car made in China which was supposed to sell for around $3500 and was going to revolutionize the industry (wonder what happened to it?). If we extrapolate the graph, forget $10,000 I'm waiting for the $5000 by 2030. And if you believe that (especially in this day and age of inflation) you're in for a surprise. At this moment, EVs are still more costly, a large adaptation rate will also increase the demand for lithium (which is up 900 % this year) class 1 nickel, copper. These metals are being used for grid battery storage so the demand is growing even more rapidly. Right now we are dealing with the disruption of the pandemic and the Ukraine war, but the one thing about ev adoption is that the used ev market is not looking good due to battery decline, there are cases of people buying a $14,000 used EV and then finding it needs a new battery for $11k oh and by the way it is not being made anymore. (There are other issues, look up "drive unit failure" on teslas). The previous part 1 there's a graph of the disruption of coal and a dropping curve. But it doesn't say why, other than implying that its the dropping cost of renewables - but in reality coal has been displaced by natural gas which is cheaper and much more efficient in peaking power plants. The self driving stuff is even more fanciful, for fun you can watch the videos of teslas crashing into stopped trucks or swerving to try to hit a passing cyclist until the driver actually has to intervene. Watch the NOVA episode on self-driving cars, and one of the computer vision experts working in the self-driving field (Martial Hebert) does not even want to predict how far away level 5 evs are. It is a long way away.

Right on target yet again. Kudos Tony!

This man's vision is giving hope, politics/ politicians will not fix it, I hope Tony is not wrong about food (CO2), transportation and energy. I just finished a book from his thinkTank, "brighter" by Adam Dorr. Fascinating, and again I hope they are rigth!

Thanks Tony! Like ice burgs rolling over. These inevitable things happen faster than we can imagine.

As I watch this series, you give me so many 'wait...what?' moments, I rewind and replay as I go along (maybe I'm slow), but I absorb more each time. This is so packed full of info and has given me much to think about and understand. I love new insight. Very thought provoking. Well done that man, thanks and all the very best for sharing your gift

Great presentation, thank you big Tony!

Tony's predictions give hope for the planet and its other life forms as well as humans.

Superb stuff, thank you Tony for bringing us this inspirational view of the wonderful future that is ours to grasp!

Awesome. Thanks for your work!

Thanks for joining the dots between Ukraine and the demise of fossil fuels. Russia is a bit sunlight poor, but there’s always wind. We should be gifting them wind tech.

Great work and presentation Tony!

We are looking forward to it

I can see the transportation infrastructure, and the energy infrastructure changing very clearly. I can see the lab grown meat structure, growing very rapidly a little behind the transportation and energy infrastructure. What is more opaque to me is the material infrastructure. When we look at man-made goods, a huge number of them are made from plastic or paper(cardboard). I’m aware of the MIT printed chitosan experiments that happened in 2019. But I don’t see ongoing work into the broad number of materials that will need to replace those that are currently petroleum (or tree) based. I haven’t seen Tony Seba, or anyone else dive deeply into that. Can anyone point me to a good resource for those materials and the early work on them?

Geely is connected to Volvo (who's producing the Polestar). Am trying to hold off w/ my VW Tiguan 2015 until hopefully I can buy a Geely.

All of these Analysis is great. In regards to the gas part I believe it will spike. Gas is currently required not just for cars but to manufacture everything. The natural resources which need to be extracted for this transition also require tools which use large amounts of gas and mines which cause a lot of pollution. Those figures are during Covid which on large scale everyone stopped driving that’s an outlier.

Solving the Money Problem will be jizzing over this content 😂

Les cars on the road being much higher usage as people get used to transport as a service and no longer need individual ownership! All trade vehicles and agricultural will jump at EV power and length of service! Level 4 already approved in some Chinese cities. Maybe current Ukraine War will have huge effects on this direction of human travel??

Very interesting presentation but PLEASE hire someone to make decent slides and/or record this profesionally. The material is worth it and it’ll have a much greater impact!

Also foretells the death of SUVs. Since you rarely actually need a SUV, people will rarely hire them, and mid size cars will predominate. The same can be said for sports cars. When transportation is a commodity, you will buy based on price not based on hauling capacity, luggage space, or chick-magnet designs. Taxis aren’t sexy and most of them aren’t enormous. Many are of course minivans. Removing the driver will allow for somewhat smaller cars.

F150 lightning with the right hardware in the house is more like 90.000 $. Teslas safety numbers is like comparing apples with Peaches. But othervise very good predictions and presentation.

Absolutely fantastic

Anyone else just waiting here? Seeing what Big Tony has got to say about transportation?

Value per minute .... ty Tony you are gorgeous

Thank you Tony!

Outstanding work!!

Hi Tony. I have discovered your work via youtube, fascinating stuff. Keep up informing, very valuable for humanity and investing :)

Watching Tony is why I bought TSLA 4 years ago. Thank you Tony!!!

@054:0 - "They say they care about green. They do care about this green" This is the truth about all clean tech! So well said.

the one thing you are not predicting is the greed of corporations.

So happy to see this - please keep this channel active with updates!

Fantastic!

BRILLIANT !- Thanks Bro !!!

Awesome. Just awesome.

The great thing about these presentations is the context provided. Very nicely done.

Surfin the S Curve......

I think the new trends are great and very well presented here, thank you Tony for carrying the colors for the new way of things to come and that are already here. I have one comment to make though when it comes to the ever-increasing use of AI/tech for art and creative efforts in general, formerly all human, now be-dazzling everyone with the robots doing it. This was sparked by your little aside about the AI painting you did in minutes with the snowcapped peak (I forget from where) in the background of San Fran. Very beautiful but let's not forget what generates aesthetic drive at the root and "what will never be the same again" if all the painters and musicians just bowed out and let the robots do it. I saw a video once of a wooden robot that someone had built to play classical guitar. It played absolutely perfect, every note and it was also...creepy as hell. I tried to imagine a concert hall full of people paying to see that robot sit there and step through all the classical pieces that were programmed into it. I think maybe the robot would have collected a few dents from empty bottles just for fun, unlike and accomplished classical-playing carbon unit. What's next? AI robots admiring AI robots? That has been predicted. So by all means let's go forward with the technology (even if we call it a "Hal 9000") to make life cleaner, cheaper, easier for the remaining carbon units, but let's not forget who is built to do what. After all, by the end of the century, the current carbon unit population will be about 50% of what it is now, so we don't need to worry about building TOO much of all this stuff. Unless the robots want to use it for themselves. Cheers.

Incredible videos and information 👏 , thank you Tony, great work!.

Thanks Tony

Tony is the G.O.A.T.

Well done. Behind this operates the (observational) law of the learning curve: with every doubling of produced items, the costs (in constant $) will come down with 14%. The second was 14% cheaper then the first. Off course, only the 2 millionth is 14% cheaper then the first millionth. Even Moore's law of IC's "works" because of the (exponential) growth of sales. Chaotic behaviour - big fluctuations - of for instance prices, is just an indication of the coming "crisis" of the transition. Off course, everybody resists this - you can see how politician want to go back to a past that never existed. But funny enough, this just powers the transition. Putin's silly war - in the long run - does more to driving out oil and gas then any plan. As it happens, with every major transition - breaking of rules -, there's war associated with it.

The market is ONLY disrupted by government intervention.

😂 TIME TO GLOAT ,TONY 🤗💚💚💚

Another point of having a long lasting car Ev or Ic.. Easier to re-sell, second hand market. And generally cheaper yo maintain.

Thank you for🤔 presentation, good thoughts🤔💭

Incredible Insights. Thank you Tony!

5:49 "they care about green, this green 💸" LOL hahaha.

Brilliant thinking and presentation

Yes the idea of the warehouse will change with automatic ai electric cars. Every closet in a home could be distributed storage for the storage of the goods networks.

Okay, that was interesting! Will there be part 3?

Yes and Hertz is ordering Evs from Tesla, Gm and Volvo pledging 175000 evs within 5 years

Mr. Seba, I appreciate your analysis of how individual car ownership will change like this. I am curious if you have looked into how public transportation would change with this? Public transit is so much more efficient at moving people, and if you take all infrastructure (roads, bridges, parking structures) it is much more expensive. I hope you look into how this can factor into the transportation part of your analysis in the future.

What is the most important issue? Food and water. Modern agriculture is linked with oil 3 ways. 1. Agricultural chemicals made from oil and gas enhance food production x3. 2. Farm machinery is diesel powered. 3. Transport to our local shops is also diesel powered. An oil crisis means a global food crisis.

This hasn’t aged well, even only a year later: EV demand is tanking now that the early adopters all have one and other people are realizing how wildly impractical they are for many use cases (most apartment dwellers, for instance). Vis a vis fleet sales, Hertz just reversed direction on their EV investment, sold off half of them at a loss and fired their CEO for the blunder.

Great presentation as always Tony! Can you please give your thoughts on EVTOL and how they with disrupt transportation, ie EVs, public transportation and commercial aviation?

One thing: we do not have the road capacity to give people the right to drive these miles, they would be able to drive. My congratulations on the superb work dear Sir.

Thanks Tony! 🦾🚗

When self driving gets good enough, will we need airbags, bumpers, seat belts, etc? How cheap and what range will electric cars achieve when safety systems are replaced by sensors and software ?

Definitely need what Tonys smoking 😂

🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:05 🚗 *Die Entwicklung der Verkehrsmittelbranche* - Die Kostenkurve für Elektrofahrzeuge und die Vorhersage, dass ein Elektrofahrzeug mit einer Reichweite von über 200 Meilen bis 2025 etwa 10.000 US-Dollar kosten würde. - Der rasche Fortschritt bei Elektrofahrzeugen und die Tatsache, dass sie schneller auf den Markt kommen als erwartet. - Der Übergang zu Elektrofahrzeugen in Flotten und die wirtschaftlichen Vorteile gegenüber herkömmlichen Verbrennungsfahrzeugen. 03:22 🌍 *Die Veränderung der Verkehrslandschaft* - Die steigende Nachfrage nach Elektrofahrzeugen und deren Anteil am Gesamtmarkt. - Die Bedeutung von autonomer Technologie und deren erhebliches Potenzial zur Verbesserung der Verkehrssicherheit. - Die bevorstehende Verlagerung von individuellem Autobesitz zu Transport als Dienstleistung (TaaS) durch autonome, elektrische Flotten. 11:43 💡 *Die Zukunft des Transportwesens* - Die Vision von Transport als Dienstleistung (TaaS) und die erwarteten drastischen Kostensenkungen im Vergleich zum individuellen Autobesitz. - Die Auswirkungen auf die Ölindustrie und die Herausforderungen, die sich aus dem Rückgang der Ölnachfrage ergeben. - Die geopolitischen Implikationen, die sich aus einem rückläufigen Ölmarkt ergeben und die Notwendigkeit einer strategischen Planung für die Zukunft.

I hate to go against him on TaaS, but while the tech may be there, and customers may quickly get used to riding without a driver, the insurance and regulatory environment will slow things way down. A phase-in process might help insurers and regulators get comfortable with level-4 self-driving (SD) cars for TaaS. Maybe 4 phases: 1. SD cars with safety drivers demonstrate for maybe six months that the car requires essentially no driver interventions in a particular service area. 2. SD car can drive EMPTY to deliver itself to riders - but a licensed and insured driver has to be verified to be in full control of the vehicle when any humans are on board. 3. SD car drives both empty and with passengers, but when there are humans aboard, a licensed driver still has to be in the driver's seat, ready to take control. Any liability of the licensed driver has to be well defined, whether is the driver or the fleet owner or a mix. 4. Full TaaS with SD cars, but a 'remote driver' must be able to immediately take control of the vehicle in unusual circumstances - e.g. pulling over if involved in a minor accident.

Here in Europe a normal small EV costs between 27-35k€. For example Opel Corsa 35,5k€. In think in the US its not so different. China its until now the exception.

I've used Times Car Share in Tokyo, which I book through my iPhone.

If this is true, then don’t force anyone to switch. The cost savings should be enough to convince those who own gas vehicles to let them go. Why do the governments have to get involved? Let the tech and cost savings be enough to win people over.

He overlooks a few points. Electric cars were driven worldwide by government subsidies, now that these subsidies have been removed, demand is shrinking rapidly. The prices for these piles of rubbish will therefore certainly fall. Apart from the fact that their electro-smog is extremely hazardous to health, they will probably only be a transitional technology to hybrid vehicles with e.g. hydrogen drive, just as the energy-saving lamp was a transitional technology from the light bulb to the LED lamp. I would also like to see the inclusion of inflation-adjusted data in the future. The fall in manufacturing costs was also possible in conjunction with falling commodity prices since the highs of 2011-12. We are currently running a deficit in energy and raw materials due to a lack of investment in the past. If the price curves here are not adjusted for inflation, they will probably look different in the future. I myself is specialise in the energy and commodity markets.

Very good presentation except for the part where he attributes the reason for the war in Ukraine to peak demand for oil.

Check the Bloomberg report about Oil displacement of 2- and 3-wheelers! Hundred of billions combustion 2-wheelers are still on the roads worldwide!

How effectively can politics slow the transition in the US?

Is there any video of him talking about his prediction 10years ago?

Freue mich 🇩🇪

Is there a part 3?

THANK YOU.

I don't think my next car will be diesel🤔

Hi Tony, thanks for the amazing video! Today's most advance chips seems to be hitting the limits of what is physically possible. Other technology, like quantum computing, is good at specific use case. So I guess my question is do you see computing power finally facing a strong noticeable slow down in growth rate? If yes, when will that happen? Thanks!

Tony Seba amazing as always, love your predictions and agree with everything, I just think your TaaS S curve is overly optimistic.. 90% TaaS in 2030.. maybe in like California.. but no way it happens that fast in most of world.

If the cost of transportation is going that low, doesn’t it mean that the car market will fall from 120M to 30-40M globally or even less in the long term?

Tesla FSD V12.3 The Biggest Little Update in The World! Rebellionaire

Meanwhile South Africa now have oil

Chinese prices though... in Europe there's no car below € 37k with > 320 km range.

16:30 Tony with all due respect, in 2020 there was the pandemic so naturally there would be a sharp decline

Why Tony does not deal with revolution possibilities with drones?

Tony ! 😎👍

Well in that case how aggressive do you think Russia will get?

But no flying cars.. by this logic they would be here🤔

Double exponential is just exponential again.

How about humanoid robots?

Is the slideshow available online?

Where is the $9200 Geely car?

Hey, oongawa, Tony Seba got tha powa! o/

Is it sad I’m waiting for Tony’s next vision what will disrupted.