The Hurricane Category Scale Is Broken

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Күн бұрын

The current hurricane category scale doesn’t accurately convey the danger of a storm, because it doesn’t account for a hurricane's most destructive factors.
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To learn more about this topic, start your googling with these keywords:
Storm surge: a sea level rise caused by strong winds pushing the water and a change in atmospheric pressure of a storm.
Hurricane: a tropical cyclone occurring in the Atlantic Ocean or northeastern Pacific Ocean
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale: the current scale used to categorize hurricanes from 1 to 5 based on the hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speed.
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Julián Gustavo Gómez (@TheJulianGomez) | Script Writer, Narrator and Director
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REFERENCES
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Belles, Jonathan. “Surface Pressure a Better Indicator of Hurricane Damage Potential, New Study Says | the Weather Channel - Articles from the Weather Channel | Weather.com.” The Weather Channel, 2020, weather.com/storms/hurricane/....
Erdman, Jonathan. “88% of U.S. Deaths from Hurricanes, Tropical Storms Are from Water, Not Wind | the Weather Channel - Articles from the Weather Channel | Weather.com.” The Weather Channel, 2021, weather.com/safety/hurricane/....
Gibbens, Sarah. “Hurricane Categories Don’t Tell the Whole Story.” Environment, National Geographic, 14 Sept. 2021, www.nationalgeographic.com/en....
Klotzbach, Philip J., et al. "Surface pressure a more skillful predictor of normalized hurricane damage than maximum sustained wind." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101.6 (2020): E830-E846. journals.ametsoc.org/view/jou...
Olson, Richard S. “Add a New Hurricane Category. Cat 6 | Opinion.” Sun-Sentinel.com, South Florida Sun-Sentinel, 3 Dec. 2019, www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion/....
Pilkington, Stephanie F., and Hussam N. Mahmoud. "Using artificial neural networks to forecast economic impact of multi-hazard hurricane-based events." Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure 1.1-2 (2016): 63-83. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...
Plumer, Brad. “Hurricane Patricia: Why a Record Storm Did Surprisingly Little Damage.” Vox, Vox, 26 Oct. 2015, www.vox.com/2015/10/26/961527....
‌“Storm Surge Overview.” Noaa.gov, 2021, www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/.

Пікірлер: 821

@MinuteEarth 2 жыл бұрын

We always appreciate your surge of support for our videos! Want to become our Patreon or member on KZfaq? Just visit www.patreon.com/MinuteEarth or click "JOIN". Thanks!

@le9038 2 жыл бұрын

@imbored6287 2 жыл бұрын

hi :D

@daphne9941 2 жыл бұрын

Helloo

@coolmandan0303 2 жыл бұрын

Nobody compares CAT 1 to CAT 5 based on the cost of damage... Who perceives threats by thinking "eh... it's a CAT 1 so it shouldn't' cost that much..."?

@MinuteEarth 2 жыл бұрын

Cost of damage is just a proxy for how much damage it will cause.

@justMariL 2 жыл бұрын

Many people who live in hurricane prone areas pay more attention to mbar than category - I wish more people knew how important that measurement was.

@Noschool100 2 жыл бұрын

We do? Like Ik this is anecdotal but I've never talked to anyone about a storm heading our way and heard somthing like "ya it's a cat three but the mbar pressure is on the high side so I'm not worried."

@justMariL 2 жыл бұрын

@@Noschool100 we do where I live in Louisiana and where I'm from in Mississippi - my boyfriend works offshore and that's the number they watch out there as well 🤷🏼‍♀️ Side tangent- I also specifically used 'many' instead of a more encompassing generalization because I realize not everyone is aware that mbar is often more important than category.

@Disturbed928 2 жыл бұрын

@@Noschool100 yeah, I've definitely heard podcasters who live in the south refer to the pressure as well.

@Peanutjoepap24 2 жыл бұрын

I live in New Orleans and this video taught me what mbar means.

@mauledomen 2 жыл бұрын

In Miami we just have parties, higher numbers is bigger party

@RainierKine 2 жыл бұрын

Giving a power storm a low Category is going to lower the public's awareness and preparedness for it, making the death rate potentially higher as well.

@MinuteEarth 2 жыл бұрын

That’s what currently happens with hurricanes like Stan.

@sourcererseven3858 2 жыл бұрын

glad you made that point so I don't have to. Gets me back to procrastinating from writing my report 😬

@sharadbhatt2900 2 жыл бұрын

I also said that in my mind

@n8dawg640 2 жыл бұрын

So what’s your solution? Lie to the public? We already have enough alarmism from institutions of power, and the public isn’t buying it. Lie to your audience, and they’ll trust you even less

@wdmc2012 2 жыл бұрын

@@MinuteEarth No. What happened with Stan is that it hit a country that doesn't prepare for hurricanes. In 1998, Afghanistan was hit by a 5.9 magnitude earthquake. If this happened in California or Japan, it probably wouldn't even make the news. But in Afghanistan, it destroyed 15,000 homes and killed between 2000 and 4000 people. There are plenty of measures of poverty and vulnerability, but a hurricane or earthquake power scale should not be one of them.

@chrismorong931 2 жыл бұрын

"Because there is a single measurement that beats wind speed alone at predicting destruction: air pressure at the center of the storm" Hurricane Patricia: 872 mbar (2nd lowest globally) Hurricane Stan: 977 mbar

@grife3000 2 жыл бұрын

Welp, I guess we're just stuck with fearing super-huge super-fast slow-moving storms then. Knowing how populous the site that gets hit by the hurricane is really isn't helpful if you're the site that's getting hit, either.

@andrewshore742 2 жыл бұрын

This video is completely wrong. Anything else other than the wind speed, the storm surge and the duration of the storm is irrelevant. Why should I know the mbars? Why should I consider a cat 1 more dangerous than it really is if my house can withstand cat 1 winds and surges? Furthermore, the association that the lower the pressure, the more damage a hurricane will cause is ridiculous.

@bob2000ful 2 жыл бұрын

thank you so much for giving numbers

@otherodd 2 жыл бұрын

@@andrewshore742 Because a hurricane isn’t dangerous because of wind, but because of tsunamis, rain etc.? That’s what they say here; don’t cover yourself from education

@andrewshore742 2 жыл бұрын

@@otherodd But it is useless for the individual citizen. If my area is going to be hit by a cat 1 and I know my house can’t withstand it, I evacuate regardless. And the height of the surge and the duration of the hurricane-force winds are already calculated by the NHC. Plus, talking about tsunamis in this case shows a lack of education on your part. And what about a hurricane is not dangerous because of the winds?

@Kaitos11 2 жыл бұрын

Some context was missing regarding Patricia: it weakened to a high-end 150mph Cat 4 hurricane before making landfall. It was still a monster but far from the historically powerful storm it was at it's peak. The damage would've been only a bit worse though as it still hit a relatively unpopulated area.

@sohumchatterjee9 2 жыл бұрын

Not to mention that Patricia capitulated almost as fast as it intensified

@juliusnepos6013 2 жыл бұрын

@@sohumchatterjee9 yeah

@Nukestarmaster 2 жыл бұрын

Yeah, and a hurricane hitting a sparsely populated area is hardly a relief when you live in said sparsely populated area.

@MarkusAldawn 2 жыл бұрын

@@Nukestarmaster that is a very excellent point, I did not consider that

@parlousdiscord879 2 жыл бұрын

@@sohumchatterjee9 small world eh? You're a f13 mod iirc right

@andrejonathan7607 2 жыл бұрын

While not nearly as thorough as mentioned in the video, I feel like the CDPS scale ratings (by Force Thirteen) are far better indicators of how damaging the storm would be. It factors in the storm size, rainfall potential, wind speed, and threat to land. It's not a perfect scale, but it's pretty representative.

@LeScratch89 2 жыл бұрын

The downside with it (I follow F13 too) is that the scale is mostly experimental - these agencies have to work with what is both reliable and easy to convey to the public. The general public, unfortunately, grossly underestimates the power of water to wreak havoc or cause destruction. Weather enthusiasts and storm trackers/chasers know better but the average person doesn't.

@StevenWx 2 жыл бұрын

@@LeScratch89 I agree with you guys (I'm a F13 viewer as well).

@TheSpiritombsableye 2 жыл бұрын

Lol, force13 fans are a-spread.

@sonkim6876 2 жыл бұрын

@@TheSpiritombsableye Yes. But the weatherman plus channel is spreading more these days.

@sonkim6876 2 жыл бұрын

My thought about this video: His name is Julian? Oh well it was an 12 hours tropical storm this year. Didn't Patricia made landfall at an much lower intensity than 345 kph right? He think we can base on pressure to make a new scales? Ugh it don't help much...

@ZeeengMicro 2 жыл бұрын

The same for earthquakes. A scale 5 earthquake with a depth of less than 10 Km can be more destructive than a scale 7 earthquake with a depth of +100 Km. Not to mention the location of the epicenter and the potential cause of tsunami.

@sandifirmansyah1988 2 жыл бұрын

in real life. when a natural disaster occurs what is needed is the speed in retrieving information from the disaster, not how accurate information the disaster is. so that most information when a disaster occurs is not very accurate and unpredictable.

@JarieSuicune 2 жыл бұрын

Perhaps, but what good is that when you are trying to inform the people BEFORE it hits? You can't tell how bad it will really turn out until it's already over. The point is to try to convey as much information as possible in as little time/detail as possible to help as many people as possible, regardless of their understanding or experience.

@daveharrison84 2 жыл бұрын

Make safety diamonds for hurricanes. One rating for wind speed, one for pressure, one for storm surge, one for rain.

@JC60143 2 жыл бұрын

That will confused the public unfortunately

@battlepans1927 2 жыл бұрын

That’s a really smart idea in theory, but then you realize only people who look it up will know what it means, compared to somethibg simple and memorable like “category 5”. Categories are easier for us to understand

@MorbidMindedManiac 2 жыл бұрын

Something like that would be cool, but I bit complicated Maybe have that, but in the center of the diamond is a general threat level like “CATEGORY 1” or “CATEGORY 5” like we already have to combine the best of both

@Relkond 2 жыл бұрын

The hurricane with a hazard diamond of 1337 though.... be wary of it. That said, if you’re in a flood plane, you don’t need a hurricane to kill lots of people. Just a bunch a rain all at once, and you don’t need hurricanes to get bulk rain. Hurricanes do get to be very situational - what they encounter along their path can drastically modify what damage they deal... or put another way: If you live in a glass house, you should probably worry about the boy with a baseball and bat, should he visit your block. If you live in a brick house... not so much.

@Mr___f 2 жыл бұрын

Love it but the rain idea would be so impossibly hard to determine which is why this video is kind of pointless.

@Darknimbus3 2 жыл бұрын

Don’t underestimate the wind though, as wind can cause much more damage than this video suggests. On top of that, a hurricane’s wind is the root of the damage causes, including the floods and storm surges, as you partially explained why in this video. That’s why we use the category system in the first place. The reasoning behind that is much more complex than you suggest in this video.

@SoulDevoured 2 жыл бұрын

Tornadoes are more likely to level buildings than hurricanes but their winds can flatten entire landscapes. Something even the largest tornadoes couldn't do. We go by winds because it's easy to see how scary they can be... How insanely costly they can be...

@Vgy1592 2 жыл бұрын

I don't think they were ever trying to say that the winds are harmless, they were trying to say that hurricanes that get classified as low threat have been just as bad, at times. And they're not wrong. As someone who's lived in areas affected by hurricanes, I can honestly say, there's a very real threat in the underestimation of the threat a hurricane can cause based on a category scale that only factors one potential threat of a hurricane. People usually won't evacuate over a category 1 or 2 hurricane. When the other factors around that hurricane get bad despite that low category, people die because they underestimated it and didn't leave -- or worse, the businesses, schools, and other such things wouldn't close down over "lower threats", pressuring people to not evacuate when they should. Wind is a serious threat, but it shouldn't be treated like the *only* threat.

@Spladoinkal 9 ай бұрын

Honestly. Wind speed is what causes storm surge anyways, it's just that more storm surge happens when the high winds last longer.

@stephenmontverde 2 жыл бұрын

The premise of this video is that the category scale is broken because it depends on ‘wind’ alone. It’s not broken. It just is what it is. The National Hurricane Center puts out other products to convey predicted rainfall, storm surge, etc. A “combined” category is hard to create because the geography of where the storm hits, and how fast the storm is moving often contribute far more to how destructive or deadly a hurricane might be. Minimum central pressure does not solve the problem, its just combines wind field and wind speed into a single measure. A better argument would be that “category” is not the best metric to disseminate to the public, except, if you actually get hit by the eye wall, it is.

@glowingfish 2 жыл бұрын

I agree and was going to post the same thing. It would only be broken if they were saying "This is the only valid tool and it explains everything!". Any scale or measurement is going to be a simplification, and wind speed also corresponds with size and amount of water a storm can hold, most of the time.

@Chiberia Ай бұрын

the issue, then, is how it's used - kinda the same way people are lazy so use Social Security numbers for everything (even though the social security organization begs people not to). at the end of the day, it's the composite model that newscasters and even meteorologists choose to use to communicate risk to the general public. in that sense, it fails miserably - just because there are other products out there, doesn't mean they're in use as ubiquitously. you can't change people being lazy, but you can provide an improved composite model to mitigate those flaws. tornados moving to the EF scale (although certainly not perfect - just ask Reno) is a great example of this growth over time.

@MartinHoeckerMartinez 2 жыл бұрын

The direction of the wind arrows in this video are incorrect. They should depict air rising at the center of the storm and circulating winds flowing inward near the surface and outward above the cloud tops (the drawings at 1:27 and 2:49 show the opposite)

@maxinecaulfield310 2 жыл бұрын

Minute physics/ minute earth are rarely ever accurate.

@corwynjohnson4066 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for pointing it out. I'm glad someone else caught that too

@cicadafun 2 жыл бұрын

Air is constantly rising and falling while spiralling towards the center of the eye, that's how convection works in the atmosphere. The center itself will always have air falling in it causing the eye.

@mpk6664 2 жыл бұрын

I think they're actually trying to represent the rotation instead of updrafts and downdrafts. It's definitely a weird graphic.

@iwanabana 2 жыл бұрын

Please. STOP it with the "individual footprint" baloney. Tell people to go to places where they can pressurize / choose lawmakers who prioritize the environment. Switching out some plastic cutlery won't do anything.

@ShirinRose 2 жыл бұрын

Yes, this. I highly recommend Kurzgesagt's latest video (titled "Can YOU Fix Climate Change?") to anyone who hasn't seen it yet.

@fish3977 2 жыл бұрын

blowing up fossil fuel infrastructure is a moral duty

@gkk116 2 жыл бұрын

@@fish3977 but blowing fossil fuel up will release it to the atmosphere. leftist debunked B)

@Khazuldar 2 жыл бұрын

@@gkk116 probably meant blowing it up metaphorically, as in taking it down or destroying it.

@B3Band 2 жыл бұрын

@@Khazuldar whoosh

@WurstRELOADED 2 жыл бұрын

I don't disagree with the central message of the video but I take issue with the claim that location of impact should be taken into consideration for the scale. As you said, the purpose of the scale is to provide an easily accessible rating of danger to citizens. The information they are interested in is not "How many people will it kill" but rather "How likely is it to kill me and what steps should I take to reduce that chance".

@TheExalaber 2 жыл бұрын

But, the topography of the location of impact greatly influences that. As they mentioned in the video, mountains do a great deal to quickly dissipate storms.

@MinuteEarth 2 жыл бұрын

The same hurricane hitting two different areas can have a very different outcome. So it is definitely relevant to an individual if they live in an area less likely to produce a storm surge, more likely to slow the storm down (like a mountainous terrain), or the opposite.

@uhohhotdog 2 жыл бұрын

@@MinuteEarth no. A person needs to know how it will impact them not how it will impact people 100 miles away.

@mpk6664 2 жыл бұрын

@@uhohhotdog This. Basing the categories on the type of land it will hit won't help. Hurricanes are huge. One that hits the Florida/Georgia/Alabama line will have two completely different "categories" because all the areas are different geographically. The NHC already puts out models of storm surge and rain for the areas that will be impacted. There's even an interactive map that highlights the low areas that will be hit the most. Perhaps we can have a PDS hurricane warning such as a PDS tornado warning? If a hurricane is going to hit an area that has a high population or has the potential to be catastrophic we can issue a PDS for that area just like a tornado warning.

@rocks813 2 жыл бұрын

I agree. And besides, hurricanes and other cyclones are not always predictable. So then, what might happen to the storm's category if it unexpectedly recurves or diverges from its predicted path? Do we lower its category? Or could it be that this erratic movement is just a short-term trend, and that the storm will actually tread the forecasted path? So then, do we raise its category again? I don't know. While it has flaws, the Saffir-Simpson scale is mostly unproblematic, since it uses just a single variable (i.e., maximum sustained winds) to give a glimpse of potential conditions when the storm comes ashore. Also, the NHC provides other information in other weather products, such as their (Experimental) Storm Surge Predictions and Wind Speed Probabilities, to discuss the real threats and potential damage, outside the technicalities of hurricane strength. By factoring in the expected path of the hurricane, population, and other factors involved, we complicate the scale by allowing for sudden category changes (in the event of sudden changes in hurricane path), confuse the public just as we are confused by the erratic nature of hurricanes and the atmosphere, and in the end, we defeat the purpose of why hurricane wind scales and other separate products exist in the first place.

@Sweet_Squad4ever 2 жыл бұрын

It's so informative. Specially here in the Philippines who always have Typhoons and our geographic locations doesn't help since we are near Pacific Ocean.

@MazdaTiger 2 жыл бұрын

but our systems are way better than what US have since we factor in the (low) pressure + moonsoons + geography + tides, and even comparing history of past storms basically what 1:55 is

@emmettturner9452 2 жыл бұрын

As someone who is currently homeless after being hit directly by the strongest part of the only EF-4 tornado this year, I’d like to point out that Hurricane Katrina had significantly lower wind speeds at landfall and it covered a larger area. Obviously, they were also below sea level with an enormous storm surge but as far as downed trees and torn roofs and crushed cars at the worst hit areas go, tornados can be worse. Some of my neighbors didn’t have a single wall left standing.

@davewilson13 2 жыл бұрын

Hope you get back on your feet soon. Good luck mate.

@emmettturner9452 2 жыл бұрын

@@davewilson13 Thank you!

@KaiserStormTracking 2 жыл бұрын

Katrina was primarily bad due to levee failures and high surge.

@emmettturner9452 2 жыл бұрын

@@KaiserStormTracking Yes, and with parts being at or below sea level they really relied on those. Still, comparing localized wind damage between Katrina, Ida, etc: The long-track EF-4 was worse. For the people who escape hurricane storm surges, tornadoes can be worse. It still looks like the Tunguska Event in places out here and the homes were absolutely ravaged in The City of Homes (Newnan).

@B3Band 2 жыл бұрын

Just buy another house. Pull yourself up from your bootstraps like any good Republican would.

@LeScratch89 2 жыл бұрын

There are better measures to scale a storm's destructive potential by, but even for "advanced" agencies like the NHC those measures are still mostly experimental and an added-on forecast product due to the high uncertainty. Wind speed is, unfortunately, the best method we currently have with any degree of reliability to measure a storm's power by, that the general public will also kind-of understand - your average person will not understand how air pressure relates to wind speed, storm size, and storm surge. Forecast agencies have to go with reliability first because it's their responsibility to inform and warn the public, so until other methods catch up we will be dependent on this type of scale. Other agencies worldwide use their own variants of the SSHWS pertinent to their own areas of responsibility for the same reason, like the cyclone intensity scales in the Indian Ocean and Southern Hemisphere or the typhoon intensity scales in the Western Pacific. When we have enough data with other tools and methods to reliably forecast the impacts of storm surge and potential rainfall flooding, I would expect those to be considered for forming a new or supplementary scale for tropical cyclones.

@confusioned2249 3 ай бұрын

I'm terrified of what a category 5 factorial storm would look like

@DreckbobBratpfanne 2 жыл бұрын

One thing missing is that Patricia had the fastest weakening a storm had ever gone through before landfall, she was nowhere, nowhere, close to the 215mph strength of before.

@shadowstorm79mc 2 жыл бұрын

Seems to me that Just modifying it into a 3 part system would be best. the storm itself having a category (1-5) based on wind speed storm size & pressure, In conjunction with adding a category system (1-5) for storm surge. Add an area risk rating system (low-med-high) based on things like Vulnerability to flooding And population density. Somthing like that could cover almost all the bases nicely And provide people with a much better idea of what they're going to be dealing with.

@JarieSuicune 2 жыл бұрын

So, what you are really suggesting is to generate a 5x5x3 rating system with 75 possible outcomes? (Windspeed/pressure x storm surge x area risk) The general idea is to convey as much possible information in as little a descriptor as possible, since you absolutely SHOULD NOT assume that any given person understands what your terms are. Assumptions like that get people killed. Even if you were to write the ratings as "WS3-SS2-AR4", that's a terribly unclear answer to "How dangerous is this event to my life/home/area?" when asked by the average person. It needs to be as clear as possible to the most average person who has just moved into the area from the middle of the Rocky Mountains or whatever and happens to have absolutely zero experience or understanding of hurricanes and has never had even the slightest reason to worry or care.

@shadowstorm79mc 2 жыл бұрын

@@JarieSuicune nah for The kind of people that can't understand a level 5 hurricane with a level 5 storm surge In a high risk area is a really bad Are the kind of people that were going to stay no matter what anyway I live in Florida you best believe We don't just go off the storm category And the people down here too lazy to do the extra research ask the people they know that aren't Besides it's only 25 possible outcomes As the Low medium high risk factor doesn't Change For a given area unless you move

@grandstrategos1144 2 жыл бұрын

@ShadowMatter Using permutations get you 75 outcomes. 5 (number of wind speed levels) * 5 (number of storm surge levels) * 3 (number of risk levels). Maybe you can remove some, but the video shows that a 1-1-high is certainly possible

@shadowstorm79mc 2 жыл бұрын

@@grandstrategos1144 You seem to not understand the fact that Unless you are moving from region to region your risk category does not change

@N12015 Жыл бұрын

@@shadowstorm79mc Ahh, like the city map I have to tell me where there's a tsunami threat. Surprisingly useful because where I live there's lots of both earthquakes, coasts and hills, making it so people knows there's Tsunami risk and the hills you can safely evacuate to.

@beeallen2743 2 жыл бұрын

This reminds me of tornadoes. An EF2 in a field could be stronger and have faster windspeed than an EF4 in a city because the category of the tornado is based on the damage it does. And instead of telling us what kind of twister is coming, we get told there's a tornado warning and you gotta get in the cellar or grab a beer and some popcorn and get out on the back porch with the old camcorder. We don't worry about how big it was till after it's gone and we're getting first responders where they need to be.

@grife3000 2 жыл бұрын

An excellent video, except you didn't give us the categories for the different pressures so we could use that information.

@duckymomo7935 2 жыл бұрын

Also because the mbars doesn’t actually say much

@KuruGDI 2 жыл бұрын

I drive a big diesel powered SUV that uses 15 liters per 100km. I thought of changing my habits and decrease not only my driven kilometers, but also my energy consumption overall. But thanks to wren I can keep going the same way I did without changing anything because I pay to get a few trees planted and now I'm even with nature and the climate. Thanks wren! I hope you understand where my sarcasm is heading...

@Jay-ps4vv 2 жыл бұрын

I literally just had a geography lesson covering this

@mukrifachri 2 жыл бұрын

Some countries already detach disaster warnings from the intensity of the phenomenon itself - ie. Japan Meteorological Agency does this very well for storm surges/inundation risk and landslides as well as for earthquake shaking (presumably incl. liquefaction but they protect against that pretty well). Now if only every country does this... Also AFAIK central eye pressures have already been used (albeit as a secondary reference) in Saffir-Simpson scale ?

@MonkeyJedi99 2 жыл бұрын

Sadly, many people (at least in the US, my only data pool) have decades of programming to "feel better" with simplified input. Hurricane? Category 1-5. Tornado? (E)F 1-?. Terrorism? Five step color scale. Threat of war? Five number scale. We are continually steered away from nuance.

@ComicalRealm 2 жыл бұрын

"If any structure survives a Category 5 hurricane, a Category 6 hurricane will finish the job." - Ultra Instinct Shaggy

@JesusMartinez-rr2ry 2 жыл бұрын

You're never going to survive my torrential downpour of my heat-seeking wrath!!!🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬

@engirckt5410 2 жыл бұрын

@@JesusMartinez-rr2ry what

@chadpowell1832 2 жыл бұрын

As someone who live in a Hurricane prone area ( just got hit by one this year ) all this stuff makes so much sense . Don’t let a small category prevent you from preparing

@andyfriederichsen 2 жыл бұрын

This is basically the opposite of the issue the EF tornado scale has with ignoring windspeed and rating only on damage.

@PhantomKING113 2 жыл бұрын

3:11 Therapist: Category 120 hurricane doesn't exist, it can't hurt you. Category 120 hurricane:

@determinedhelicopter2948 2 жыл бұрын

Took me a moment to get the joke

@GMBlunderfish1 6 ай бұрын

Patricia hit between dense areas in a sparsely populated gap, thus missing the damage hot spots and was a compact hurricane that had a relatively small inner core. The inner core is the most damaging part of the storm as it is where those 200 mph winds and 3 cm/hr rains occur accompanied by 7 to 10 metres high storm surge. The outer areas are also capable of damaging, but not as much.

@bforbiggy 3 ай бұрын

I know that statistically there's only one or two people that are affected by this but at 0:30, it'd have to suck to hear someone say "Thankfully, only a few people died." when you are one of the few who did have someone you know die. Probably nobody cares, and in the context of the video it is an insignificant mention when there are thousands of people dying everywhere but DAMN, I still wouldn't describe it like that.

@zachw2906 2 жыл бұрын

I would like to point out that Wren is a way for big business to shift responsibility onto the individual when individuals like us have almost no direct impact on climate change

@o76923 2 жыл бұрын

Oh hey, another Kurzgesagt fan.

@goverat 2 жыл бұрын

I'm pretty sure Australia uses pressure to determine cyclones, then there's a guide as to what to expect

@hoseasylvester2596 2 жыл бұрын

Everywhere uses pressure

@ghostyidk9383 2 жыл бұрын

No it doesn’t. It uses wind speed.

@hugocc7732 2 ай бұрын

3:08 wasn’t expecting a category 120 hurricane here

@mattm7220 2 жыл бұрын

The other big contributor to lower category hurricanes/cyclones being more dangerous is that when the category is lower, people are more complacent about the storm. They either prepare less, or are just plain careless with their actions during the event. That complacency can be a major factor in why there's often higher injury and loss of life during less severe events. And unfortunately, human complacency will always be a driving factor regardless of any overhauls made to the rating system.

@AntoineLavoisier 2 жыл бұрын

You bring up some good points. A hurricane can bring a variety of hazards and it’s often the flooding component (between surge and rainfall) that causes the most fatalities. The original Saffir-Simpson scale did factor in storm surge and pressure. However, due to hurricanes like Katrina (Cat. 3 winds at landfall, Cat. 5 surge), the scale was remodeled to be solely based on wind speed. The NHC/NWS approach in the modern era is to communicate the risks associated with each individual hurricane since as you showed, there are non-meteorological factors that contribute to how destructive and deadly a hurricane can be.

@cobramcjingleballs 2 жыл бұрын

We had a hurricane that breezed over us in Tampa, but then a mere tropical storm came by in @2005ish a week later that sat over us for 3 days piling on rain on already saturated ground. I was in the most northern above sea level part of tampa, but the pretty pond they put in apartment complex overflowed, causing electricity to be shut off for 3 days and 3 feet of standing water in parking lot. Glad I lived on 2nd floor.

@C1914 2 жыл бұрын

Mexico’s second largest city is in that “rural” area. As well as some other cities. Yucatan is a bunch of tropical forest and Central Mexico is mountainous and on a plateau. Only the coast is flat.

@mikestermike 2 жыл бұрын

Big misconception about winds. They RISE in the center of the storm, with the outflow forming an anticyclone in the upper elevations (the "outflow cirrus" is a result"). In fact, it is the rising that lowers pressure (that and velocity). Winds are not "drawn down", but rather pulled in.

@1.4142 2 жыл бұрын

2:50 The visual of wind blowing down is kind of misleading. Low pressure causes water to bulge upward, in addition to wind pushing water onto land.

@mirrenboarish 2 жыл бұрын

My thoughts exacty. Saw the airflow they represented and thought 'uh that's not quite right...?!' Glad I'm not the only one to notice it.

@ToroidalX 2 жыл бұрын

Another amazing video. I love this channel

@minirichiPap 2 жыл бұрын

will Wren also go after the big companies or will it just make us feel guilt into givin'em money?

@D-Man_Jam 2 жыл бұрын

This just reaffirms the rule that Stans should not be messed with.

@michaell874 2 жыл бұрын

I agree that the category rating needs to be updated because it only takes into consideration wind speed, which is different on either side of the storm, depending on which direction the storm is going. Rain is a big factor as well, but storm surge at the time the storm hits landfall has a huge impact and must be used by calculating measures differently depending on the sea levels of the areas the storms hit, in addition to areas prone to flooding and population density. Obviously areas along the coast in the South, including the panhandle, are prone to larger wind speeds due to the warmer waters, but ocean temperatures are imperative to calculate into the new category scale for hurricanes. Lastly, the rate of speed the storm is traveling will make a difference, especially with heavy rainfalls, especially in areas prone to flooding. Maybe the isobar numbers can be added too the equation too.

@kodychan3477 2 жыл бұрын

actually we already have a scale that measures damage potential. its called the Cyclone Destruction Potential Scale or CDPS.

@duck1ente 2 жыл бұрын

In the Philippines, PAGASA (the local weather agency) issues color coded status for rainfall depending on the amount. It starts from green, yellow, orange, and the highest alert which is red. The color code is raised for not just typhoons, but also thunderstorms.

@ZeroKami86 2 жыл бұрын

Wren's website must've changed because it didn't show me any of that. I answered all the questions then just showed me 3 expensive plans. edit: I am proud of my 9.5 rating though, much lower than the average in the US.

@Treebark1313 2 жыл бұрын

If you want to really make a difference, harang your local and state representatives about climate action. Get everyone you know to do the same thing. Your individual impact on the climate is minuscule compared to what a handful of companies and governments are doing. Climate change is a political issue, unfortunately.

@marcopohl3236 2 жыл бұрын

I propuse my own system: IT'S A DUCKING HURRICANE, GET THE CRAP OUT OF THERE!

@Hypurr1 2 жыл бұрын

Everything you mentioned is valid and in a hurricane prone area, such as SE Louisiana where I live, the meteorologists mention and drive in all of these factors when a storm is approaching. The category is not what they use so much as they predict the storm surge, the speed of the storm, the rainfall amounts and all of the other factors. Yes, the category system is outdated, but in areas where they hit that is not what they warn about. Right now I'm living in an RV as my house was destroyed by Ida and is being renovated. They pound into us that the main problem is not wind speed but the pressure, storm surge and rainfall. They constantly update us with the pressure as it falls and measure the potential strenghth by the pressure.

@r0cketplumber 3 ай бұрын

Storm surge and rainfall are why I chose a home on the mainland side of a coastal estuary (Florida's misnamed Indian River), protected from storm surge by the small inlet (Sebastian) being many miles away. We're 14 feet above a wide creek channel that drains into the Indian River so even very strong rainfalls are shunted away from us.

@leroymilo 2 жыл бұрын

3:10 : the legendary class factorial 5 huricane.

@furyinferno2234 2 жыл бұрын

there is a scale called the CDPS scale which takes into account of storm size, surge, winds, expected rainfall and overall threat to land, it is a scale from 1-10. 1 been minimal damage and 10 being extreme damage.

@berangereduquesnoy5780 2 жыл бұрын

Love your videos!

@unitgamex2972 2 жыл бұрын

You didn’t mention that there’s such thing as the CDPS scale. So the system isn’t entirely broken

@michaeligbinoba2894 2 жыл бұрын

That's not official. The creator still hasn't even published a paper on it so

@unitgamex2972 2 жыл бұрын

@@michaeligbinoba2894 yeah, But this guy thinks that the Safir Simpson scale is meant to rate the potential damage but it’s meant to rate how strong the winds are

@throwbiegd6627 2 жыл бұрын

@@unitgamex2972 yeah thats what kinda pisses me off with this vid

@ikeroran7911 2 жыл бұрын

@@unitgamex2972 yeah

@notabots4602 2 жыл бұрын

Hello 👋. This is a interesting video and I didn’t know that the system was this broken.

@KaiserStormTracking 2 жыл бұрын

Cause it isn't

@jadenjones693 2 жыл бұрын

Thank for the video

@xaviermantha63 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks for the video.

@eggplayz5235 2 жыл бұрын

Interesting! Great job everyone who made this.

@i8ap4t53 2 жыл бұрын

The scale based on windspeed is suitable for manufacturing, and insurance purposes. Which is why it wont be replaced anytime soon. It's an easy metric to get your building material tested against. eg fire a 2x4 at your product at X speed, and you'll get your certs stamped.

@main-browsing5521 2 жыл бұрын

Thanks! This gave me an idea for a machine learning project.

@siddheshgawali7764 2 жыл бұрын

Damage doesn't only depend on threat level but also to preparation and readiness for floods and how do people react.

@andresibarra9914 2 жыл бұрын

i was hit by hurricane Patricia, I did not do as much damage as other hurricanes but thanks to its speed and size it was easily the scariest thing I have ever witnessed and heard.

@dystopiangodess 2 жыл бұрын

This taught me more about hurricanes than my ocean science class

@lyonsdwyer5373 2 жыл бұрын

Great video. I never knew about this better measurement

@LFTRnow 2 жыл бұрын

Also, you need to check if it is full of sharks.

@JarieSuicune 2 жыл бұрын

Next Smash Bros. member introduction: "Sharknado bites out a victory!"

@icarlyIV 2 жыл бұрын

I feel this is a greater issue with tornadoes. Because the tornado scale ( enhanced fujita) is solely based on damage caused. A good example of this scale being faulty was the May 31 2013 el rino tornado. It was the largest by size on record, had 296 mph winds at its peak. However, since it was mostly in unpopulated areas, it only got an EF3 rating.

@atomspalter2090 2 жыл бұрын

thanks for this video

@chrisboyer2195 Ай бұрын

This is exactly what happened with the Enhanced Fujita scale, massive windy tornados like the one at El Reno, are can be classified as a EF3 because it hit nothing but empty farmland, while less windy but more damaging tornados get rated EF4 or EF5 due to other factors

@coyraig8332 2 жыл бұрын

I think in high-risk places people could put specially made buoys in the water to track how much a storm raises the water level, maybe with high powered lasers pointed down. It might not be the cheapest thing to maintain, but it might save on damage prevention. It might not, though, because I don't know if it would be reliable enough far enough from the coast.

@scotthendricks5665 2 жыл бұрын

Also each cyclone region uses different cut offs for their wind speed.

@keekee300 2 жыл бұрын

I always consider the pressure more than the wind speeds

@tonytheofficer Ай бұрын

This certainly has the same type of feel as the F-scale to EF-scale. F-scale was mostly wind speeds and visuals of the tornado as it was coming. EF-scale was more focused on the damage afterwards. Tornados are however alot shorter lived, and damage is usually quite quick to happen. Hurricanes lasting for weeks on end, can really make measuring and rating them confusing, as it's never truly possible to know exactly what one will do or what it will hit, therefore wind speed or pressure measurements is really all we can do to determine if its a tropical storm or a "you're dead" hurricane.

@cindyeisenberg8367 11 ай бұрын

Florida has had so many hurricanes that we don’t worry too much about cat ones. Though a thunderstorm that spawns a tornado can be dangerous too.

@bunny-sk5rc 2 жыл бұрын

love you minute earth 🌍❤️

@Owen_loves_Butters 2 жыл бұрын

Factoring in are where it hits to its strength is extremely counter-intuitive. But I do agree with the air pressure thing.

@josepio4168 2 жыл бұрын

I literally was learning this in class when this video was posted

@mspectrite8025 2 жыл бұрын

A recent example of miscalculating a hurricane's windspeed was in july of 2021 when hurricane felicia was roaring over the pacific ocean, the NHC mistankenly estimated felicia's windspeed at 145 mph, along with a pressure of 945mb, but, recon flights weren't available at the time which caused the incorrect estimate, the true windspeed was probably around 155 mph, with a true pressure of 937 or 936mb

@ikeroran7911 2 жыл бұрын

evidence.

@joshdoeseverything4575 2 жыл бұрын

Patricia was an absolute monster. It RAPIDLY weakened before landfall though and hit rural coast. Not a fair comparison

@1.4142 2 жыл бұрын

Fun fact: The National Hurricane Center forecasts storm surge using the SLOSH model, which is an abbreviation for Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes.

@DEmersonJMFM 17 күн бұрын

Factoring population size into a category rating is in itself also dangerous because you'd be "prioritizing" the people in an urban area over a rural one by inflating or reducing the "risk."

@nooblangpoo 2 жыл бұрын

Same in the JMA typhoon scale for the Philippines, a country that gets passed and ran over by typhoons, besides ST Haiyan (Yolanda), T Ketsana (Ondoy) caused massive damages due to intense rainfall. Philippines is a hotbed for Storm related disasters as it has a high tendency to make landfall and has an effect in which it pulls equatorial winds causing massive rainstorms even if a storm is just passing by. If there are any scientists that are interested in storms, Philippines, while lacking in equipment, has good documentation and expertise on them as the country is usually hit by massive storms and storms with odd paths.

@theholk 2 жыл бұрын

I feel like this is a bad argument to lay at the scale: It's not particularly a quality of the hurricane that population density increases negative outcomes. On a "per person watching the weather report" the effect IS proportional to the scale, even if a given path increases the number of people that risk applies to. Apply that logic to earthquakes.... The magnitude of an eathquake is a reasonable measure, even though WHERE it hits has a vastly greater input on the overall outcome. And a similar (but weaker) argument can be made in regards to the "wetness". Yes coastal regions have higher impact proportionally to the scale, but that too is "a constant", and thus blaming the scale for not incorporating it is... flawed.

@lucalopez9604 2 жыл бұрын

I worked on a government agency dedicated to ambiental protection during the time of Patricia. Everyone in the office was incredibly stressed about it and relocating all our resources to deal with the disaster. Then it changed trajectory. And then the threat got lower and lower each day. And then it hit and it was far from the damage we expected and were like "... So what are we doing this week?"

@local_furry_SCOTLAND Жыл бұрын

In 1968 the uk got a category 5 hurricane called hurricane low q and you should see the documents of it

@bobbyc1120 8 ай бұрын

Minimum central pressure conveys information about both wind speed and size. To give an example, hurricane Sandy was a category 1 storm with a pressure of 940 mbar. This is the lowest pressure ever seen in a category 1 storm - you would expect to see it in a category 3 or 4 storm. Not coincidentally, Hurricane Sandy was the largest hurricane to ever exist in the Atlantic.

@BastiatC 2 жыл бұрын

Hurricane warning categories shouldnt take into account how populated the area it might hit is. Yes hurricanes that hit more populated areas do more damage and kill more people, but the point of the warning is to tell people how much if the threat the storm is. That gets skewed if your taking population density into account. Instead it should look solely on how well the infrastructure is able to resist the storm.

@user-wr5hf9yf8u 2 жыл бұрын

The thumbnail looks like you were gonna teach Noita's sawblade arcs lol

@doritosbag1054 2 жыл бұрын

The CDPS (cyclone damage potential scale), coined by Force Thirteen, takes into account the rainfall potential, storm size, maximum winds, and overall threat to land, and gives it a rating out of ten. This is probably the best form of measuring damage potential I’ve seen but it’s still pretty unknown.

@B3Band 2 жыл бұрын

The problem with a subjective "opinion" scale is that in America that would open you up to legal liability if the numerical "opinion" you provide is less than what the storm actually ends up being. And knowing this country, you might even get sued if you predict a higher number too, because Karens were forced to leave their vacation for a storm that turned out to be no big deal.

@Jesse78 2 жыл бұрын

Tornadoes are better rated imo. They're rated based on the magnitude of damage. For example, EF0 tornadoes have estimated wind speeds of 65-85 mph, and only cause minor damage, like roof damage and tree damage. However, a tornado that appears in the middle of a large empty Field which would be an EF3 in a more populated area might only be rated as an EF0 as it wouldn't hit much

@notreallyokay9355 2 жыл бұрын

Like the video; one minor criticism: at 2:57, small text appears in the corner for a short time- which is okay, as we can always pause the video, but on KZfaq, that's exactly where the icons and progress of the video is located, meaning it's much harder to read. When in fullscreen, I have a massive red line going through the middle line, and out of fullscreen, it's hard to read the first line.

@Chritin 2 жыл бұрын

To quote a funny CS;GO man… Category 1 - Pussy Shit Category 2 - Wind Category 3 - More Wind Category 4 - A pretty high amount of wind Category 5 - Rectal Prolapse.

@sirapple589 2 жыл бұрын

Where’s that quote from?

@Gazpolling 2 жыл бұрын

1:26 The woman, after her stomach filled with seawater : this is fine

@50cent5718 2 жыл бұрын

Where and how well prepared were the different areas shown

@jacobhebert667 2 жыл бұрын

In Louisiana, the thing about hurricanes we care the most about is rainfal and storm surges, not wind speeds (although that is a concern obviously). This is because we flood in a light drizzle, so a hurricane or tropical storm/depression is already a big problem. We also get hurricanes like 2-3 times each hurricane season.

@texasyojimbo 2 жыл бұрын

The current Saffir-Simpson wind speed scale is pretty deeply-embedded in culture. I think any new scale needs to build on it, perhaps by adding a letter classification for wind pressure. So for example, a category "1" storm with unusually high/weak pressure for a storm of that category, might be categorized as "1A." A category storm of "normal" pressure for a category 1 storm might be classed as "1B" and a storm with unusually low/strong pressure could be classified as "1C" or "1D" (for the most extreme outliers).

@1hybodus 2 жыл бұрын

There's definitely a bunch of compounding variables to this. Part of why Stan was so dangerous was also because people didn't evacuate properly due to the low category rating