Quick clarification on the odds presented in the video since there's been some understandable confusion in the comments over whether the math is correctly applied (i.e. Sidnev and Tristop are above average players, it's a semifinals match, etc.) - there's a difference between trying to predict what's the most likely outcome in a given moment with as much context as possible, and trying to show how rare something is across the entire historical record. For example, if I made a weather video about Death Valley, I might say something in it like "There's only been 5 times in the past 110 years where it's been over 130 degrees F. Thus, the chance of any given day being over 130 F there is an insane 1 in 8,030!" Someone could say in response, "That's not true. You'll never get that temperature in the winter, so you should only count summer days. And you should throw out cloudy days too since the sun can't shine at it's full potential there. So you see, in sunny days in the summer, it's not quite so rare as that!" Those would be relevant things to consider if you were planning a trip to Death Valley tomorrow and wanted to know the chances of a 130 F day - you'd check the calendar on what the typical temperature is at this time of year, and look at the forecast to see if it's an overcast day. But it's also completely different from what I was originally saying when I'm talking about how rare 130 F days are in that location across all of history. Similarly, when talking about Tristop and Sidnev's match, I'm not talking about how rare it would be for them to lose with these scores specifically against each other, I'm talking about how rare it would be to see a loss with these scores if you were to watch all the games in the past several months of Master's Event, which is already an incredibly elite set of matches (same as how Death Valley is already an incredibly hot place to talk about weather!)

"Except...this video isn't about Tristop. This video is about Sidnev." I WAS NOT PREPARED FOR THIS PLOT TWIST

Videos like these is what got me into this game, feels surreal being in one. ❤

The mere fact that back in 2018, 4 years ago, tetris ends in level 29. and today, it BEGINS at level 29 speaks volume to the dedication and skill the players have attained through this decades old game

Your storytelling is impeccable. The reveal at 13:41 completely blew me away, I was not expecting that at all!

Sidnev is a great friend of mine, watching that first match was an edge of seat experience, even told them "you just swept someone who b3b 1.3'ed", Tristop played so well, but somehow Sidnev was always one step ahead. the second match was heartbreaking though.

Scout video about a match of mine, I have truly peaked

That super killscreen is pretty nifty. Love the return of the pace stat! Excellent video as always Scout. You bring out the brightest moments in the community in every vid!

It's fair to say that SV had leveled up his skills and earned this win

my reaction to 13:40: oh no.

It would be cool if the tournament shows the current percentage next to the scores next to the finals. Like a 100% score would mean it's currently the highest score in the tournament.

This guy's videos are the perfect watch length.

I think the math is a little bit incorrect. In 16:10, CMIIW the odds of 1 in 11904 was probably taken from (1-0.58)*(1-0.99)*(1-0.98) = 0.42*0.01*0.02. The 0.42*0.01*0.02 part is the probability of SV loses in all 3 games (using the product rule, assuming the probability of each match was considered independent, i.e. ignoring fatigues and tension from the previous games and stuff). Scout argues that the probability of any player beats SV in a sweep is, indeed 0.42*0.01*0.02, because SV loses in all 3 games means the opponent pulls of a sweep. However, we are calculating the probability, or how rare of Sidnev experiencing this tragic lost; not Sidnev pulling a sweep against SV's score. What should be done is to plug Sidnev's score to the formula above, and we will get 0.61*0.39*0.16 = 0.04. This mean, during the past 3 months, Sidnev has 4% of getting swept by other player with those score. This is actually the value that we want! We can also see that 4%, or 1 in 25 odds, are not that "tragic" compared to 1 in 11904. I'm here only to mention where the math in this video is incorrect. It's only an educational comment. Obviously, congrats to SV for being the champion of CTM, and I still think losing against 1 in 25 odds is tragic. Hopefully Sidnev can become champion in the next CTM, because he definitely deserves it

SV getting the shoutout he deserves GGs

I mean the issue with this math is that Tristop played against the same opponent 3 times in a row and he also played against a semi-finalist

Can we just appreciate though how SV picked up the ball and ran with it to the end? Pulling off that kind of W is honestly impressive. Hope Sidnev and Trist get their own Ws soon though, they seem like excellent players in their own right.

As always, another fantastic video @aGameScout Thank you for all you do for the classic Tetris community!

Incredible video, such a good story and the way it’s presented makes it even better.

Scout, you are a shining star of this community! We are so lucky to have you breaking down matches and stats like this!

Really loved the twist at the end of this video. Such great storytelling and an amazing narrative arc. Nailed it!

don't really play classic tetris anymore or keep up with the scene but I always enjoy watching your videos :)

You do a wonderful job at making us feel the tension. I have no doubt that you have brought countless people to love this eSport.

I'm in disbelief that you kindly released the data!! What an incredible effort. Thanks a lot Scout! You're a real legend for that.

Good stuff Scout! Love to see the community grow stronger (and scarier o_o) each year

god i’m so heartbroken. hoping sidnev wins ctm masters soon! either way a truly exceptional player!

this is my favorite video of yours ever, its perfect and i loved it all the way through

Yo he posted

Sidnev not winning each month breaks my heart 😥

Thank you I'm not watching Tetris outside of the world championship, so thanks to your videos I can keep in touch with the ultra fast evolution of the game in between championships

Best match of the year candidate. What a match!

I haven't paid that much attention to classic tetris since the last world championships, and I have to say, that new level 39 patch--making a true kill screen--is the BEST possible change for the game, holy crap, I'm so so glad people in the tetris scene aren't unreasonably resistant to change because making people play for tetrises on level 29 speed is so so so so hype

Love the super kill screen. Best option. No longer risks a simple endurance game.

Your productions are always outstanding. This one is oustandingly outstanding.

I watched a video like this awhile back and totally started watching Tetris tournaments. The excitement is catchy!

Got me really hyped dude. Great work!

Oh been looking forward to this video!

Your videos are truly one of the most entertaining in the whole of KZfaq!!

"Brutal" really is the only word for this... WOW. Also, wanted to say, I've watched several of your videos in a row now, and you are fantastic at giving exactly the right context for a viewer with very little prior knowledge, but don't repeat yourself. What I mean is, having watched three or four videos in a row, I never had a "yeah, you told me that already" moment. Everything was necessary, and never felt redundant. That's difficult to do. Well done 8D

Man, I always love the sick stories you make into YT videos, and as a TGM lover, I've always wanted to get into NES Tetris too, but FUCK do I not want to have to learn to mash a dpad to reach current high level play >.>

What a fantastic storytelling this this. I'm in awe.

Great twist! Thats some good narration.

You did SV dirty with that picture lol Go SV!

I used to play the NES version of Tetris all the time when I was a kid, but I didn't start getting into competitive Tetris until Tetris 99 came out, despite being familiar with the concept since Tetris DX on the GBC.

3:50 2nd to last on a gamescout chart ‼️‼️‼️

Such a great explanation, you are a treasure

would the odds of SV's scores in the final be more likely when you compare them against the scores of finalists, instead of comparing against all masters players? getting to the final in a month usually demonstrates being on good form, and it doesn't feel like a monthly finalist being able to put up a couple 1.5s is as ridiculous as 1 in 11,904

When you calculated the probabilities, did you treat the events as independent or dependent? Because you are essentially using percentile rankings within the data set, and because each game changes the data set, I feel that means the events are dependent events rather than independent events. Another might be the single elimination format. It seems that you treated each game in the data set as equally likely. If this were a round robin tournament, then that might be possible. But, as a single elimination format, better players who get higher scores play more games, so their games are more frequent than other players. But, if you limited the data to just the semifinals, I suspect the sample size would be too small. Finally, I'm not sure if your general proposition is accurate. A match win is a match win, right? Like, the NBA champions don't get a special trophy if they sweep their opponent. When measuring match wins, the data is agnostic of the game wins. I'm not sure that the data from individual games can be completely disconnected from the match they were played in. In any case, comparing these games to the statistics was an interesting way to put the games into context. 👍

Brilliant video once again. Thanks scout

That twist in the middle about who we should really feel bad for felt like watching Cobra Kai Season 1 for the first time. Well done, cinematically-engaging and expertly informative.

Never give up, no matter what the odds are against you. Congrats to all three players for a big set of incredible games!

An incredible story and twist.

Sidney after realising he had faced 1 in 11904 odds of not winning the event: EMOTIONAL DAMAGE!1!!1!!1!!1!1

Always love your analysis. I just wish the accounts that restream CTM would do a better job. Some have distracting backgrounds, most use music (what exactly does that have to do with Tetris?)

I really didn't think a game of Tetris would give me this much adrenaline ever

yeah that's happened to me before, not in as large a stage, but whenever I expect a piece to clear lines and it clears none, it just completely destroys my focus

16:23 "But in the end, it still didn't matter" cmonBruh, It was the perfect opportunity 😂😂😂

3:44 part of the reason that those percentages are lower than you would think is because of how the tournament is set up. With it being a best of 5 single elimination, the best players are going to be playing more games than the worst ones. Also, as the rounds progress and matches become more even, they often take more games to be decided. What this means is that the best players will have more of an impact on the average than the worst players, which both brings the overall average up while simultaneously bringing their relative average down. If it were weighted by player rather than by game, the percentages for the top players would be much higher.

These match analysis videos are great

13:40, the most brutal plot twist

Your videos are so enjoyable, thanks

loving the music 3 love! (my favorite)

Poor SV, his fantastic performance above his weight class overshadowed as a footnote on the greatest loss.

still havent played tetris in like 25 years. still love your channel.

Scout is one of the main reasons that I started playing NES Tetris in my emulator

the fact that ppl are going for tetris pass 29 is insane. Thanks to the 39 super kill screen which makes the game much more exciting

Sidney must not give up

The math at 16:10 is incorrect because it assumes that the scores are completely random. To illustrate, the odds of Dog, Hufft, and other top players to get 1.4 million in each of three round is probably not too low, but for me to pull the same score would be one in several hundreds trillions if I even have any chance to do that.

That guy should have bought a lottery ticket afterwards.

incredible vid presentation

Excellent cloud in that scatter graph and another at the upper end given that upper end clouds will be smaller, do their significance needs to be "artificially enlarged"

That plot twist was legitimately heartbreaking

You got a new sub when you said this video is not about. Wow that's good content creation

absolute fire vid. how does this not have like 2 mil views

legendary commentary that rivals levy rosman's ability to make chess exciting

Man, that's like when you play 20 numbers on Keno and miss them all. Except that'll still win you like 100 grand.

Me at 6:48 thinking: wow that was quite a match good job to Sidnev for going to the finals. "But thats just game one" 😮

Whenever I see someone die to a line drought, I'm reminded of that Tetris God skit from ways back on KZfaq. These players are truly skilled, but RNG wants to chime in every now and then to pick a side.

I'm sure Tristop loves this video...

As a person that breathes, this storytelling made me breathless!

The plot twist genuinely surprised me

in CTM can each game be considered a random sample or is there interaction between the players? ie they know the other’s score and what they need to beat them in that moment. it seems like with the delay each player is essentially playing their own game blind to the otherMs board

Is it me or sv lowkey looks like Jani's son

That picture of SV though

The Tetris Gods giveth and taketh away.

this is also why the bag is better, the fact that you can lose for no other reason than... Because screw you, today.

I lost it at "this video is about sidnev"

You absolutely need to call CTWC Games with James Chen one of these years.

Your best video since Joseph won the CTC

“One of the greatest defeats in anime history”

"mom wake up agamescout uploaded!"

Aaaah what a twist!!!

What kind os sorcery is going on with that tecnique of tapping underneath the controller?

"a tenth of a Tetris" I say we all move to a Tetridecimal system

Thank god they added a kill screen that can beat rolling that doesn’t just end the game.

I didn't know about the new rule. Wow that changed the whole game. I'm excited.

Scout for tetris is like John Williams for star wars

Poor Sidnev man dude made it to fricking CTM finals of masters 3 straight times! and lost each time,amazing playr, does need to work on his humility in defeat some though and keeping calmer under pressure.

Can you do the Pong championships please?

Tristop: The man God abandoned Sidnev: The man God hated

you're like the GothamChess of tetris man!