Yeah what's that expression "luck is when preparedness meets opportunity"? And one of my favourites "everyone has the will to win but only those with the will to prepare actually do win "

Thanks!

True :) How did you like the video?

@@OffshoreCitizen I like all of your videos, I watch them every day.

What "ethnical" capitalism might mean? The capitalism is ethical itself. because you need to provide any sort of value to others to earn money. all others "systems" incentivize people just to steal from others.

I tend to agree I'm hugely interested in what I'd call "post capitalism". What I don't see are many good ideas or thinking on what that means or how it would come about. I think part of the problem is ideas about what's wrong with capitalism are poorly conceptualized so it tends to devolve into two basic trains of thought: 1. Government regulation and intervention essentially distorting market forces based on centralized planning which turns out to be a terrible and oppressive path that doesn't build on what's great about capitalism (embedded intelligence of markets) 2. "People should act ethically and include such concepts as triple bottom line in their investing decisions". This is faulty because you can't rely on people's good behavior to build a better system. It's a topic I've thought deeply about and have some thoughts but not refined into a coherent or nuanced model yet. My suspicion is at the core of the next generation of capitalism needs to be evolving our concepts of ownership and playing with more complex multi variant incentive structures. I think token economies likely play a pivotal role in this but time will tell.

Thank you Wayne! Happy to hear our content is of value - that's the goal. Have you seen our video on the Metaverse?

Thank you, Noam! Stay tuned :) Any tips you'd like to share?

Thanks!

Thank you, Ed. Appreciate your support! Anything you'd like to share on the topic?

@@OffshoreCitizen Thanks Michael. Re Trend Following: What makes markets such difficult complex systems to predict is how they are driven by goal-seeking agents who change their behavior in response to changes in the market. This creates both positive and negative feedback loops. The winners who get in early reap massive upside due to power laws. The losers are those who arrive late soon before the inevitable trend collapse. I agree that trend following is the best strategy. But its dynamic is different than what many would like to believe, as you touched upon. Trend leaders are not necessarily those organizations that are the best-- not the most revolutionary, most efficient, nor even most profitable. Trend leaders are chosen based on which the crowd, on average, thinks is best. Not which are actually the best. By following trends, you can see outsized return for you time and effort, as you mentioned. I see this all of the time in Silicon Valley. I have talked to many VCs who seem to do nothing but spend their time in meetings with entrepreneurs who they have no intention of ever funding. Because these VCs are more interested in putting their feelers out for trend signals, and are willing to spend hours in otherwise pointless meetings to do so. I am also a believer in contrarianism. Eventually market participation leads to market exhaustion, and trends collapse. Contrarians then win big. But it requires patience and much more precise timing. Re sophistication and specialization. Yes, there is an advantage to being early to a new technology. The upside is less competition. The downside is a very high learning curve that requires a high level of education and specialization. Not less I would argue. For example, people were studying CS in the 90s only to build webpages. I see the same thing with AI where the field is currently dominated by PhDs and researchers. That will change as the technology continues to be commoditized. The time investment to acquire the expertise needed by new technologies is definitely worth it when they are exceedingly difficult learn. Because you are guaranteed less competition. Then it is easier to gain attention and ride the wave of the trend.

What do you think the future brings?

If you think cryptos have no intrinsic value you don't understand cryptos. It would be like saying shares have no intrinsic value. The question should be "shares of what?" the same is true for cryptos there are thousands of them they are essentially digital titles or tokens to something the question is what? Of course they don't need intrinsic value for people to make a lot of money off of them, which they have, and cash out. The point in general is don't let ideologies or previous beliefs get in the way of success. But for the specifics you've got to figure out for yourself.

Yeah very good point might see about a specific video on it or maybe can try role modeling it. What are some strategies you've used to help think in probabilities?

​@@OffshoreCitizen I understood the importance of the concept from Mark Douglas. He wrote the book 'Trading in the Zone' and there's a video seminar on youtube with the same content. I learned from Douglas that it is important to not optimize trading decisions for the outcome of the single trade of the moment but for the accumulated outcome of a great number of trades in a particular situation (trade setup). In other words: If criteria you choose results in winning for a while but then having one or few losing trades compromising progress, then the initial wins amount to nothing. In real life: Let's say you live in rural Great Britain or other parts of the world with narrow roads and you drive a lot at night. When you are driving in a rainy night behind a truck (lorry in GB) should you overtake risking a crash to get to your destination 1 hour more early? The likeliness of a crash might be low but the severity of that scenario would be high. Referencing the first example with the trading decisions, I would rather consider optimizing my decision for the fact that throughout life, there will be countless decisions like this, (assumed) low probability but high (negative) impact. Practically speaking: If I make it a habit to take these kinds of risks thousands of times, it is very likely that one time, I will have a high impact negative consequence that will make all the short term benefits I had until that point seem useless. You can look at all the combinations from low to high probability *combined* with low to high negative and positive impact, especially for recurring types of situations. A case of low probability but high impact are investments in startups, small caps, mining companies with no mine but license to explore (the jargon is 'Junior Miner'), crypto, ... . I would say, logic dictates to invest a *small* percentage of ones capital into risky assets with moonshot possibility, even if one is conservative overall. When 1% of risk can double your entire wealth (or more than that), that's a must. What I can recommend is Annie Duke (book, interviews on youtube). You will also find a lot when you search for Bayes or Bayesian. One such video is 'A visual guide to Bayesian thinking' by Julia Galef. Also search 'Probabilistic Thinking' (among those is one video by Mark Douglas). Perhaps you can get someone on for an interview. That would have several advantages. Annie Duke did quite a few interviews on channels that don't have large number of views. As you seem to have some personal interest in trading, I would recommend Mark Douglas although trading is not the topic of your channel, of course. It's not really a strategy or tactic. I see things through the lens of this thinking model since I understood its significance.

Good thoughts!

Yes that's the tough thing. The best way I've found is to collect a circle of people who tend to be good at seeing these things early. Also realize you don't need to be that early if you understand how to capitalize on them. Quick example.the easiest time to make money investing in general crypto was defi summer 2020 and then about Dec 2020 to Feb 2021. After this it was much harder NFTs aside. But if you saw this trend you could have launched your own project after the trend was obvious and had great upside. The easiest way to launch a project is usually to partner with someone who is an expert in the space. To Jose's point above this is easiest to do when you have something of value to bring. The most consistent thing to be able to bring is marketing of one form or another which goes back to the skills of getting attention.

Exactly. How are you working towards that goal?

@@OffshoreCitizen Day trade crypto (scalping). I don't swing trade or hodl crypto it's to volatile. I'am in and out max 2 hrs or depends sometimes more or less. I trade high volume coins with big movements big spread and aim for micro profits between 0.35 to 2% per trade of course with a specific trading strategy (Skill). End of the month 25% of profits goes in to BTC staking, 25% dividend stocks, 25% compound and 25% in my pocket. Average @ 20 % profit per month. And yes i'll be a millionaire or multimillionaire in less than 4 or 5 years no doubt about that. Good luck.

Thank you, Sally! Any thoughts you'd like to share?

That's part of it but another part is simply how technology has amplified complexity and scale. It means the impact of getting lucky is also far greater which incentives risk taking

Thank you! Anything you'd like to share on the topic?

You're welcome glad you enjoyed. Other topic suggestions?

@@OffshoreCitizenCurrently Dubai and Portugal are the most discussed locations and I love and use both. But what is the next "underdog combo"? Bahrain and Greece? Or? (Winter summer combo?) For those looking to be outside the main stream

Of course there are but what's changed is the asymmetries of getting lucky. I used to be very highly focused on a more traditional value investing approach. I'd reassure myself when people got lucky that "it's not sustainable" and that's true. The thing is though you only need to get lucky once to set you up for life in a hyper scale world. The key today is much less about being consistent and far more about being aware when you're getting lucky. This being said you can also learn to leverage and spot trends so the odds are more in your favor.

Haha thanks!

I kind of agree and disagree. There is a difference between someone surfing trends and winning the lotto.

I find systems work until they don't. The thing today is you can do so well in a short time that you can set yourself up for life and then it doesn't matter. The important thing is realizing "this too shall pass"

@@OffshoreCitizen Correct, especially in the IT sector. Typically a young team develops some kind of service with a user base that's growing exponentially. Once they have that they can sell the company for billions even though there is zero profit or actual value of the product. As for trading forex, it's always better to get fiat at the source. No product or customers needed.

Thanks! I'm not a fan of doge. I try to only buy things with real use cases that are doing something cool and innovative on the tech front. Doge is not that and I think it's built on a bad foundation so not worth innovating

Exactly. Happy you managed to work it out. What is your advice for investing?

​@@OffshoreCitizen Sounds like one of those countless spam comments shilling for some investment broker or something (which are probably scams anyway)

Yeah that's the argument and I'd say it's a rationalization

@@OffshoreCitizen it is a crucial thing for the markets I don’t think that a value can only be defined in a direct way, but with indirect things too. Basically it is one of the core things in our economical and financial theories

@@OffshoreCitizen Is trading public stock adding any value? Since it's basically the same stock changing hands over and over without adding resources to a company I don't understand how it could be. I kind of have more of an issue with that basic concept than with arbitrage. Maybe it's something I'm missing with this? When it comes to arbitrage I just know I find it annoying if I have to pay more for an asset in one exchange vs. another or if I miss a selling opportunity because a peak don't happen on the exchange where I hold assets. For example in Norway where I'm from I discovered that buying crypto from a Norwegian exchange often was more expensive than buying the same coin from Binance or FTX. Also I typically buy US stock listed on an EU exchange vs. directly from the US exchange for tax reasons but it seems its often at a premium. It particularly seems that it won't rally to the same peaks. It's complex to figure out for sure because of timezones and different opening hours of different exchanges so I'm not sure though.

Thank you! What are your thoughts on the topic?

@@OffshoreCitizen First a disclaimer: while I have achieved certain success in different areas I am still not a successful person, so, take it with a grain of salt. I think that understanding is a shield against stupidity and that you develop it by setting up very high goals and then basically fail your way into success understanding why is it that you fail most of the times... As understanding adds up, you realize that with little time you can achieve a lot doing side projects, riding trends & having short term goals like you explained. Sorry for the crappy answer, just my two cents.

What coins do you recommend investing in?