I agree with "Think short term" moto in the sense of trial and error. Also you have to think big and join momentum. Most money is made by taking advantage of opportunities. However, opportunities are hard to find if you have nothing to offer. Opportunities come knocking on your door after you have built something. Even the most opportunistic trader builds a skill in order to find opportunity.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Yeah what's that expression "luck is when preparedness meets opportunity"? And one of my favourites "everyone has the will to win but only those with the will to prepare actually do win "
@themortgagechic_ca2 жыл бұрын
I absolutely agree with you. How you make money in 2022 is way different from the 1980 conventional wisdom. We now have loads of 20 year old media millionaires that are not even graduates.
@rof82002 жыл бұрын
Ecclesiastes 9:11 NET Again, I observed this on the earth: the race is not always won by the swiftest, the battle is not always won by the strongest; prosperity does not always belong to those who are the wisest, wealth does not always belong to those who are the most discerning, nor does success always come to those with the most knowledge- for time and chance may overcome them all.
@dvandewalle2 жыл бұрын
Probably one of your best videos ever. Totaly agree!
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@jesselloyd207 Жыл бұрын
I agree. And this might be an interesting reflection of the economic shift from away from the west, where we reward the trendy over the ones who provide value. It’s also a sign that we’re in the “new paradigm” phase of the multi generation nation cycle.
@valhalla96882 жыл бұрын
Health is wealth
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
True :) How did you like the video?
@valhalla96882 жыл бұрын
@@OffshoreCitizen I like all of your videos, I watch them every day.
@chocmilkisgood2 жыл бұрын
Short term thinking is king. Buzz words. Neon lights. Bam! Boom! No time to think.
@HunkyMan7772 жыл бұрын
I strongly advocate a new concept of ethical capitalism
@fin313372 жыл бұрын
What "ethnical" capitalism might mean? The capitalism is ethical itself. because you need to provide any sort of value to others to earn money. all others "systems" incentivize people just to steal from others.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
I tend to agree I'm hugely interested in what I'd call "post capitalism". What I don't see are many good ideas or thinking on what that means or how it would come about. I think part of the problem is ideas about what's wrong with capitalism are poorly conceptualized so it tends to devolve into two basic trains of thought: 1. Government regulation and intervention essentially distorting market forces based on centralized planning which turns out to be a terrible and oppressive path that doesn't build on what's great about capitalism (embedded intelligence of markets) 2. "People should act ethically and include such concepts as triple bottom line in their investing decisions". This is faulty because you can't rely on people's good behavior to build a better system. It's a topic I've thought deeply about and have some thoughts but not refined into a coherent or nuanced model yet. My suspicion is at the core of the next generation of capitalism needs to be evolving our concepts of ownership and playing with more complex multi variant incentive structures. I think token economies likely play a pivotal role in this but time will tell.
@GriswoldFamily2 жыл бұрын
Another excellent video. I go to Offshore Citizen to keep abreast of changing residencies & citizenship. But lately, I've also been finding OUTSTANDING advice on the broader financial mindset. So many missed opportunities over the last few years because I was still evaluating opportunity risk using the old rules. After watching this, I am adding a new rule of my own: ALWAYS TRY THE NEW THING. I don't get the attraction to NFTs but I'm going to purpose to buy one this week. Why does anyone need the Metaverse? No idea, but I'm NOT going to try to evaluate a long term position at this point - I'm going to check it out - make a small investment.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Thank you Wayne! Happy to hear our content is of value - that's the goal. Have you seen our video on the Metaverse?
@noamwolfson9352 жыл бұрын
Michael I love your thoughts here, one of your best videos! more of those videos will be great :)
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Thank you, Noam! Stay tuned :) Any tips you'd like to share?
@mado.madeleine2 жыл бұрын
Brilliant! Totally agree with everything you said, esp on short vs long term thinking. The world is moving so fast at this point that it's getting harder and harder to keep up, let alone plan far ahead into the future. To me, it's a bit like surfing vs mountain climbing. There are times in history when the landscape is probably more solid and it makes sense to have a long-term plan and focus on climbing a 'predefined' mountain. But these days it seems it's more about being able to feel the moment and catch those elusive waves. Love your thinking and missing your "Solutions" podcast )
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Thanks!
@edwest22632 жыл бұрын
Excellent video, agreed with everything stated here. Really puts things into perspective. Like Edward Thorpe says, being right isn't enough, you need to be early to a trend.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Thank you, Ed. Appreciate your support! Anything you'd like to share on the topic?
@edwest22632 жыл бұрын
@@OffshoreCitizen Thanks Michael. Re Trend Following: What makes markets such difficult complex systems to predict is how they are driven by goal-seeking agents who change their behavior in response to changes in the market. This creates both positive and negative feedback loops. The winners who get in early reap massive upside due to power laws. The losers are those who arrive late soon before the inevitable trend collapse. I agree that trend following is the best strategy. But its dynamic is different than what many would like to believe, as you touched upon. Trend leaders are not necessarily those organizations that are the best-- not the most revolutionary, most efficient, nor even most profitable. Trend leaders are chosen based on which the crowd, on average, thinks is best. Not which are actually the best. By following trends, you can see outsized return for you time and effort, as you mentioned. I see this all of the time in Silicon Valley. I have talked to many VCs who seem to do nothing but spend their time in meetings with entrepreneurs who they have no intention of ever funding. Because these VCs are more interested in putting their feelers out for trend signals, and are willing to spend hours in otherwise pointless meetings to do so. I am also a believer in contrarianism. Eventually market participation leads to market exhaustion, and trends collapse. Contrarians then win big. But it requires patience and much more precise timing. Re sophistication and specialization. Yes, there is an advantage to being early to a new technology. The upside is less competition. The downside is a very high learning curve that requires a high level of education and specialization. Not less I would argue. For example, people were studying CS in the 90s only to build webpages. I see the same thing with AI where the field is currently dominated by PhDs and researchers. That will change as the technology continues to be commoditized. The time investment to acquire the expertise needed by new technologies is definitely worth it when they are exceedingly difficult learn. Because you are guaranteed less competition. Then it is easier to gain attention and ride the wave of the trend.
@schilll2 жыл бұрын
Nice video. Id say trying to get into things that have network effects is key. And getting in them early, these can have exponential growth and crazy returns. And i dont agree that arbitrage traders are not providing any value! They correct the prices on different exchanges / or different countries to make them more equal, if you want to buy a stock of a product getting it cheaper because there is some arbitrage trader who fixed the prices for you is nice.
@ericeverson59562 жыл бұрын
In 2009, Berkshire Hathaway bought a railroad. Success is much easier when you know what the future brings. Thanks much, Kevin. Peace.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
What do you think the future brings?
@RatherBeCancelledThanHandled2 жыл бұрын
Agreed ; well said .
@dananderson472 жыл бұрын
Michael, I get your point about Near Term Thinking and Trends. However, some trends endure and some come and go. I believe the decision is still out on the Crypto Currencies. Certainly people have created wealth investing in Bitcoin. But because Crypto has no intrinsic value it appears to me to be pure speculation. I had rather find a new trend like Microsoft, Apple, Tesla or Amazon. One area that is particular interesting is "renewable energy" which is certainly picking up steam. I also think the "work from anywhere" phenomenon is getting a lot of interest (and becoming highly trendy). There are two sides to that story but the efficiencies and opportunities are certainly there. Thanks for creating the brainstorm.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
If you think cryptos have no intrinsic value you don't understand cryptos. It would be like saying shares have no intrinsic value. The question should be "shares of what?" the same is true for cryptos there are thousands of them they are essentially digital titles or tokens to something the question is what? Of course they don't need intrinsic value for people to make a lot of money off of them, which they have, and cash out. The point in general is don't let ideologies or previous beliefs get in the way of success. But for the specifics you've got to figure out for yourself.
@drydessert41982 жыл бұрын
Thinking in probabilities is worth further attention in a separate video because people who do not already have this paradigm in their repertoire of thinking will most likely miss this when just mentioned in passing.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Yeah very good point might see about a specific video on it or maybe can try role modeling it. What are some strategies you've used to help think in probabilities?
@drydessert41982 жыл бұрын
@@OffshoreCitizen I understood the importance of the concept from Mark Douglas. He wrote the book 'Trading in the Zone' and there's a video seminar on youtube with the same content. I learned from Douglas that it is important to not optimize trading decisions for the outcome of the single trade of the moment but for the accumulated outcome of a great number of trades in a particular situation (trade setup). In other words: If criteria you choose results in winning for a while but then having one or few losing trades compromising progress, then the initial wins amount to nothing. In real life: Let's say you live in rural Great Britain or other parts of the world with narrow roads and you drive a lot at night. When you are driving in a rainy night behind a truck (lorry in GB) should you overtake risking a crash to get to your destination 1 hour more early? The likeliness of a crash might be low but the severity of that scenario would be high. Referencing the first example with the trading decisions, I would rather consider optimizing my decision for the fact that throughout life, there will be countless decisions like this, (assumed) low probability but high (negative) impact. Practically speaking: If I make it a habit to take these kinds of risks thousands of times, it is very likely that one time, I will have a high impact negative consequence that will make all the short term benefits I had until that point seem useless. You can look at all the combinations from low to high probability *combined* with low to high negative and positive impact, especially for recurring types of situations. A case of low probability but high impact are investments in startups, small caps, mining companies with no mine but license to explore (the jargon is 'Junior Miner'), crypto, ... . I would say, logic dictates to invest a *small* percentage of ones capital into risky assets with moonshot possibility, even if one is conservative overall. When 1% of risk can double your entire wealth (or more than that), that's a must. What I can recommend is Annie Duke (book, interviews on youtube). You will also find a lot when you search for Bayes or Bayesian. One such video is 'A visual guide to Bayesian thinking' by Julia Galef. Also search 'Probabilistic Thinking' (among those is one video by Mark Douglas). Perhaps you can get someone on for an interview. That would have several advantages. Annie Duke did quite a few interviews on channels that don't have large number of views. As you seem to have some personal interest in trading, I would recommend Mark Douglas although trading is not the topic of your channel, of course. It's not really a strategy or tactic. I see things through the lens of this thinking model since I understood its significance.
@noamwolfson9352 жыл бұрын
Good thoughts!
@tentimetex2 жыл бұрын
Great video thanks! the issue with trends is how to identify them before they explode, in order to position yourself...
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Yes that's the tough thing. The best way I've found is to collect a circle of people who tend to be good at seeing these things early. Also realize you don't need to be that early if you understand how to capitalize on them. Quick example.the easiest time to make money investing in general crypto was defi summer 2020 and then about Dec 2020 to Feb 2021. After this it was much harder NFTs aside. But if you saw this trend you could have launched your own project after the trend was obvious and had great upside. The easiest way to launch a project is usually to partner with someone who is an expert in the space. To Jose's point above this is easiest to do when you have something of value to bring. The most consistent thing to be able to bring is marketing of one form or another which goes back to the skills of getting attention.
@listlings67382 жыл бұрын
Gold
@Stephenngreg2 жыл бұрын
Very interesting points. So some of these guys still talking about long term investments 20, 30, 40 years. That's old thinking old mentality. There are ways to make tons millions of money in less than 10 or 5 years hell even 2 years. If you really want it. The way things are going i don't know what will happen in 10 years from now. So i want to enjoy life with family and friends and help people now. Today! This is just my opinion.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Exactly. How are you working towards that goal?
@Stephenngreg2 жыл бұрын
@@OffshoreCitizen Day trade crypto (scalping). I don't swing trade or hodl crypto it's to volatile. I'am in and out max 2 hrs or depends sometimes more or less. I trade high volume coins with big movements big spread and aim for micro profits between 0.35 to 2% per trade of course with a specific trading strategy (Skill). End of the month 25% of profits goes in to BTC staking, 25% dividend stocks, 25% compound and 25% in my pocket. Average @ 20 % profit per month. And yes i'll be a millionaire or multimillionaire in less than 4 or 5 years no doubt about that. Good luck.
@sallysmith38852 жыл бұрын
Great information.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Thank you, Sally! Any thoughts you'd like to share?
@PSKuddel2 жыл бұрын
Interesting thoughts. I‘ve also observed especially the trend, that becoming wealthy in more and more cases has nothing to do with creating value anymore and breaking it down to basically attention and arbitrage instead seems a good approach. I think, that the central bank policies of the last 15 years have at the core broken the „good“ (getting rich by creating actual value) kind of capitalism in many cases.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
That's part of it but another part is simply how technology has amplified complexity and scale. It means the impact of getting lucky is also far greater which incentives risk taking
@svgstudios8312 жыл бұрын
Great insights!
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Thank you! Anything you'd like to share on the topic?
@SWISSVERSE2 жыл бұрын
I enjoyed a different type of topic here. Thank you.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
You're welcome glad you enjoyed. Other topic suggestions?
@SWISSVERSE2 жыл бұрын
@@OffshoreCitizenCurrently Dubai and Portugal are the most discussed locations and I love and use both. But what is the next "underdog combo"? Bahrain and Greece? Or? (Winter summer combo?) For those looking to be outside the main stream
@KetanSingh2 жыл бұрын
Would honestly suggest that you read or re-read 'Fooled by Randomness'. What you talk about here is generally interesting but there are hints of you not taking 'Survivorship Bias' into consideration. For instance, is easy to say that the crypto bulls were right in retrospect. It's not that easy when the future is yet to be written. This is an extremely seminal and important fact of reality to consider. For each gimmick's turning out to be the real deal, there are a lot of duds.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Of course there are but what's changed is the asymmetries of getting lucky. I used to be very highly focused on a more traditional value investing approach. I'd reassure myself when people got lucky that "it's not sustainable" and that's true. The thing is though you only need to get lucky once to set you up for life in a hyper scale world. The key today is much less about being consistent and far more about being aware when you're getting lucky. This being said you can also learn to leverage and spot trends so the odds are more in your favor.
@DeetzBlom2 жыл бұрын
How to watch Offshore Citizen: Like video, then click play
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Haha thanks!
@FighterFred2 жыл бұрын
As for lucky winners, that's not sustainable. Just look at Lotto winners, a few years after the big win they're broke again. What's more important is the system. In terms of (algo) trading which is what I do, small frequent gains are much better than some occasional big wins. The reason is that prop firms like steady equity curves and will fund you in that case. The firm FTMO requires 10% profit in a month with max 5% daily drawdown, about the same for other firms. Typical max capital per firm is about one million USD. A few percent of that in monthly profit is life-changing. Another important thing is percentage gain, if you have that the return becomes exponential. The doubling time is 70/R, where R = monthly gain in percent. With 10%/month the capital doubles every 7 months.
@chocmilkisgood2 жыл бұрын
I kind of agree and disagree. There is a difference between someone surfing trends and winning the lotto.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
I find systems work until they don't. The thing today is you can do so well in a short time that you can set yourself up for life and then it doesn't matter. The important thing is realizing "this too shall pass"
@FighterFred2 жыл бұрын
@@OffshoreCitizen Correct, especially in the IT sector. Typically a young team develops some kind of service with a user base that's growing exponentially. Once they have that they can sell the company for billions even though there is zero profit or actual value of the product. As for trading forex, it's always better to get fiat at the source. No product or customers needed.
@michaelthibodeau15092 жыл бұрын
Thanks Michael, just watching your interview with Brian Rose, well done, it's troubling to know I had a friend trying to sell me on bitcoin in 2012 and I didn't understand it. That being said I have some etherium and have put some spec money into doge. What are your thoughts on doge, even with Elon pushing it?
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Thanks! I'm not a fan of doge. I try to only buy things with real use cases that are doing something cool and innovative on the tech front. Doge is not that and I think it's built on a bad foundation so not worth innovating
@bryanellis2632 жыл бұрын
The need to invest in profitable investment vehicles can not be overemphasized. When I lost my job due to the pandemic I was able to get through the year with the profits I revived from my stock investment.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Exactly. Happy you managed to work it out. What is your advice for investing?
@leandrog2785 Жыл бұрын
@@OffshoreCitizen Sounds like one of those countless spam comments shilling for some investment broker or something (which are probably scams anyway)
@fin313372 жыл бұрын
stock arbitrage adds value too. it makes markets more efficient.
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Yeah that's the argument and I'd say it's a rationalization
@fin313372 жыл бұрын
@@OffshoreCitizen it is a crucial thing for the markets I don’t think that a value can only be defined in a direct way, but with indirect things too. Basically it is one of the core things in our economical and financial theories
@einarbreen75492 жыл бұрын
@@OffshoreCitizen Is trading public stock adding any value? Since it's basically the same stock changing hands over and over without adding resources to a company I don't understand how it could be. I kind of have more of an issue with that basic concept than with arbitrage. Maybe it's something I'm missing with this? When it comes to arbitrage I just know I find it annoying if I have to pay more for an asset in one exchange vs. another or if I miss a selling opportunity because a peak don't happen on the exchange where I hold assets. For example in Norway where I'm from I discovered that buying crypto from a Norwegian exchange often was more expensive than buying the same coin from Binance or FTX. Also I typically buy US stock listed on an EU exchange vs. directly from the US exchange for tax reasons but it seems its often at a premium. It particularly seems that it won't rally to the same peaks. It's complex to figure out for sure because of timezones and different opening hours of different exchanges so I'm not sure though.
@jesusgil99712 жыл бұрын
great advice
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
Thank you! What are your thoughts on the topic?
@jesusgil99712 жыл бұрын
@@OffshoreCitizen First a disclaimer: while I have achieved certain success in different areas I am still not a successful person, so, take it with a grain of salt. I think that understanding is a shield against stupidity and that you develop it by setting up very high goals and then basically fail your way into success understanding why is it that you fail most of the times... As understanding adds up, you realize that with little time you can achieve a lot doing side projects, riding trends & having short term goals like you explained. Sorry for the crappy answer, just my two cents.
@maxdam12342 жыл бұрын
Burn the banks and buy privecy coins
@OffshoreCitizen2 жыл бұрын
What coins do you recommend investing in?
@sid062 жыл бұрын
Definitely agree on trends (hate it as well). It is amazing how good a product/service and the acquisition effort can be, yet because it is not generally recognized as value it does not seem to grow well. Educating a market seems to be the biggest challenge. I think arbitrage is a zero-sum game producing value-adding externalities (higher trade volume and/or value amplification). Similar to sports where you can either primarily focus on beating your opponent, or on improving your skills using your opponent and on loving the end product (a good game). Aliexpress dropshipping is definitely short-term. The ad photo alongside the price tag misaligns your expectations. Once you receive the product, you don't want to buy from the brand ever again. And getting new customers via ads is the most expensive way. A major e-commerce tool sums this up in a tagline: "Retention is new acquisition". The question is, will you not make more money by e.g., partnering with a quality D2C producer who is undermarketed? Given that you deliver on your promise, you can retain your customers and build a brand. In the case of Kylie Jenner, her audience cares about having something associated with her, which makes it part of the product. Many people spend money on items that don't even have a use but are in some way associated with a figure they look up to.