*wipes tear from eye* this fella taught me how to make a donut

Whoever was doing the stage lighting and selecting the camera for it, totally BLUE it.

After going through the whole donut tutorial, I feel like he's now one of my college professors

1:04 - Style transfer 3:03 - Principles from Bezos 3:28 - Trend in gaming industry 4:30 - Cost of assets 6:05 - Procedural workflow 7:40 - Single materials to procedural model 9:08 - Some stuff about substance designer I don't 100% understand 9:35 - Procedural world building 14:45 - Uprez via machine learning 15:40 - Motion capture via machine learning 16:15 - Mocap to create walking AI 18:00 - Quick iterations via machine learning 19:00 - Generate variations of model 21:45 - Model variation with camera changing 22:10 - Generate image from text 24:47 - Use case of the above 25:15 - Summary 28:40 - 3D industry forecast

Owh hey its the donut guy, i love that guy

I bet AI could retroactively button Andrew's shirt throughout the presentation.

What a great presentation!

the conference, the crowd, the guy... all never existed, all generated

hahaha this aged like fine wine

Thanks for watching! In case anyone wants them, here's the full slides from the talk: docs.google.com/presentation/d/1K5q-2nT7emlUXce71oE2h-x5Tkp5zd8g1PI_hpvUNg0/edit?usp=sharing

this is aging very well. Your predictions are spot on

this guy really knows how AI is gonna affect the industry but what he really excels at is donut anatomy

Andrew has been watching lots of two minute papers it would seem.

Andrew just makes me smile. He's so genuine in his love for his craft, and I can't help but admire the passion he has to pour out into the community. Thank you for featuring him on your channel!

All pretty spot on so far

I wonder if Andrew's presentation was generated 🤔

BUT CAN AI CREATE A PERFECT DONUT????????????

Ultimately AI will allow Indie studios to create professional products. That is a very exciting thing because it enables more people to be creative.

I would actually cry tears of joy if my computer would rotoscope shots for me. I hate rotoscoping with a passion

Watching this in 2022 with stable difusión and other A.I. services being available to the public.

This is one of the most important talks of BlenderCon18

the only way we can stop AI from ditching us is by pushing our creative levels further and we being united.

Half of the futuristic/autmatic/procedural predictions here are already well addressed by Geometry nodes in Blender!

watching this in 2022... you where right!

Woooow!! That was impressive! Almost 4 years later, and i can say to you that your prediction level is fairly high! Procedural workflows are indeed growing, Nodevember started, and Geo Nodes came into blender. Photogrammetry and rotomation became a thing and are indeed replacing "tedious jobs". And the "creative assistance" topic was just so right! Dall-e 2 is a GREAT example!

I am massively happy I found this video!

I wonder what this guy thinks about this now

23:02 well, we actually found out that they actually steal data and images from artists to train their AI.

Andrew Price just makes me fall in love with modelling and visual art over and over again.I have no idea how he does that, but i started with his tutorials, and i'm still a beginner, passionate about other stuff too like programming, and drawing, and music, and everytime i hear him speak i want to jump back into modelling and forget the rest. He's the most inspiring person i've ever seen, and i don't even exactly know why. I'm sure he's not aware of it, but in the hard time i'm going trough in my life, he's been a true blessing, an inspiration, one of the reasons i've had my, so i like to call it, " creative epiphany ". I'm going to copy-paste this comment everywhere, because everyone need to know this: Andrew Price is a goddam legend. K, i'm out. Edit:Also, Machine learning looks so promising and amazing. I can only imagine how cool future workflows and pipelines will be, with artists making stuff, machines adjusting it, artists reiterating different ideas quicker than ever.

Why is this in my recommended? Why do I feel attacked? Why did I watch the whole video?

_"Now i am become death, the destroyer of worlds."_ ~ Andrew Price probably

Andrew, this is something no artist ever wants to hear!

For all intents and purposes, you forgot to button the second button on your shirt.

I remember when people would debunk detective movies saying u can't just enhance pixels.

Procedural materials: are mentioned CGMatter: *S A U C E*

What a guy. He doesn't go to university, but he delivers a great presentation and read papers to predict the trends.

"Blender should..." They probably would if there were enough devs.

Great talk Andrew!

This man is an absolute master in my eyes. I remember watching his tutorials in high school when I took an animation class. He is always so well knowledged in his content.

brought to you by: 2 minutes paper all of the papers, literally been explained by this channel

These uploads are great! Keep 'em coming :-)

Thank you, Andrew. Very cool.

This is why Andrew is making such a huge success out his ventures. Very good presentation.

Procedural modeling is already beginning to come into play in Blender with Geometry Nodes. Now imagine if the texturing suite was designed to be more procedural, in the style of Substance Designer/Painter!

Where do they pay $3600 for a traffic cone model?! Lemme in!

So being skilled at more things instead of being particularly skilled in one area is a good thing?.....I'm glad I have an obsession with knowing how to do everything

I'm so excited to see those new technologies in action. Very nice presentation Andrew.

I'm just waiting for the moment I can get an Implant wich directly creates 3d models from my imagination.

The motion capture took my breath away, the text-to-concept froze me solid; it wasn't just using word recognition, it was applying to real-world knowledge. "Red bird" created a cardinal, not a make-believe red crow or red sparrow. I'd like to play with that more to see just how much contextual information it can evaluate automatically.

Fine, I'll turn myself into 75% machine, that should do it.

One of the best talks ive seen at this conference! Nice Job Andrew, and I´m really looking forward to that tutorial u teased! :)

I have thought ALL of this for a few years now, and I'm really excited to see a presentation on this very thing and the progress that's been made in A.I. aided art.

Creepy and exciting at the same time.

Wait until they hear about DALLE-2...

One of the most interesting and well designed conferences this year. Congrats for your great analysis, it got me hypnotized.

Crazy that he was that spot on. I mean, yeah, it's "only" been 4 years and all the current features have been on the horizon, but the speed at wich it's getting implemented and improved is absolutely mindblowing. And it's the first major new technology advancement for ages that is being explored by consumers and B2C and not just big gatekeepers is also very lovely. The only thing that Andrew didn't get right.

So in the end, machine learning and procedural workflow would actually help us instead of replace us, they just made our jobs easier

21:25 reminds me of what Valve did for some of their characters in Half-Life 2. And that was WAY back, like early 2000.

@3:00 booom! Brilliant! That is the tought process I needed to hear! It's so obvious when you hear it. Thank you.

@Andrew Price Thanks a lot for this in my opinion very well thought through and fantastically presented presentation. I had actually put it off since I ((humble as I am)) thought I knew what it was going to "show and tell". And though I think I had seen most things before, the "well threaded and presented" quality made it thoroughly worth watching anyway. Fantastic work....again... And thanks to the Blender Foundation for....EVERYTHING....Not least these great videos from their conference.

Great talk. I completely agree with the assessment in that AI and machine learning are coming to the creative areas and some will come quicker than others. There are a couple of things to consider when it comes to timescales. The first is the time it takes to implement these changes. As an example, good AI is available to picture editors in media companies and yet take up is very slow even though it saves money, time and effort on tasks that are basically tedious. Then there is the whole process of integrating it into established workflows and pipelines. Implementation always takes longer than expected. The second is people. Cultural change is probably the main roadblock when it comes to bringing new solutions to work. Even within the Blender community I note the resistance to Evee by some. People's default setting to change appears to be fear/caution and sometimes with good reason. This isn't true of all people but seems to be an all too familiar setting for the decision makers and finance people even when savings or innovation can be demonstrated. My hope is that people recognise that change is the norm, that innovation will help maintain and grow the creative industries and AI and machine learning will be our favourite assistants in the near future.

As an Indie Game Developer & Drawing Artist I'm happy this is happening, this let's me focus more time on actually Designing the Game, Illustrations and concept art, allowing for more creative details in my scenes, this is why it's a good thing. It doesn't make me any less creative, it just means I have less 3D "Chore Work" to deal with, and can focus more on actually DRAWING. But this is coming from someone who actaully cares about creating unique works of art, The Asset flipping trash isn't technologies fault, it's the DEVS faults for being lazy, they CHOOSE to asset flip loll, don't blame Technology! Blame the People who choose to do it, I also think its a very sad thing, Just cause technology enables Lazy people to do Asset Flips and Shovelware doesn't mean it disables good people from making better stuff, Quite the opposite, talented people can do even better stuff! It's the lazy peoples fault for being lazy and wanting attention, not the technology! It doesn't matter how hard it is to become good or how long the path is, if it means I can make a positive difference, and feel good about myself, and I think this is a mentality more humans need to pick up, Don't let any negative things others say influence you pretty much, anyone can become anything, its not a lie, other than talents with physical restrictions but on the subject on Gamedev, anyone can become anything if they try hard enough, dont waste ur freetime on doing pointless shit, actually use it for productive things, if u sleep 8 hours a day, you got 116 ur awake a week, thats almost 6000 hours a year awake, and even if 2000 of those goes to full-time jobs that's still just a third of ur Awake time, and 76 hours a week, don't let shit like that stop you even if its being a Cashier, Cleaner, Uber driver or School, Take personal free online night classes for game dev, build ur games during evenings & weekends, it's worth. Also no 3d artist really wants to spend a month salaries worth of time 3D'ing a car, I'm sure most artist would rather be able to make their own vision's come true, working at those big companies is just a means of survival and good cash income, that's all it is, Most artists have their own visions it's just the time isn't right yet to make them true cause lack of resources, and time investment with current technologies, so as technology advances, while you'll see alot of this Shovelassetflipwares, you'll also see more GOOD things releasing, be happy of technology moving forward! If anything is broken it's how the marketting industry works, sadly many good gems can be hard to notice thanks to shovelware but it dun change the fact it allows us to create more, better things as well. Technology allows us to reserach even more tehcnology, eventually this will lead to us being able to live better & longer & healthier lives, if we decide to stop move technology forward, we will never be able to cease the suffering either, people are able to live as old as 100 today, and enjoy all these virtual experience thanks to technology so yh, while people get fired, we also get the ability to achieve more things with less time spent, cause lives gets easier with technology, eventually the need to work 40 hour jobs will perish and 20 hour will be the new full-time and then 10 hours, its just a matter of time lol, Laws, politics, beaurocrasy are lagging behind thats the real problem here, as well as humans getting lazier, those things are what needs to be stopped. Or would you rather go back 200 years in time where everyone died at age 50? The fact that the world even offers us to become so old today is a blessing and worth the hard work you need to put in, but each of their own I guess. Stop complaining guys and work on that Freedom lol. It's still true the effort a human puts in something values how good of a life they are able to live compared to the rest. We shud all try to make a difference to the planet, be it in game dev or some other way, we should all try to move Humanity Forward, thats what I believe. You simple become a better human by doing this, Do good deeds, get good deeds back. Creativity inspires Technology, Technology inspires Creativity. And humans at least in my beliefs are born to be creative beings.

Such a great talk man ! Soso true lot's of the points you talked about and it's greatto have time to think about it and how the all industry can change so quick!

All the stuff he presented is great and I have learnt a lot new things. But the very best point of his performance is the fact that he managed to perfectly fit his whole presentation into his timeslot of 30 mins. Kudos!

Until AI can hold a pencil and drink beer it will NEVER replace 2D artists. HAHAHAHAHAH

update 2019: massive problem of unemployment with india's young graduates.

That's what I've been waiting for , can't wait create that animation that's been bouncing around in my head for the longest time and apparently with not much effort just creativity, and I got plenty of that, love it.

Thanks ! Another great video.

In 20 years we will have self generated movies. Choose what you want to see and artists have creative algorithms made for you to select and combine and boom. Your own self tailored movie that fits your emotional needs.

Human creativity will always have a place alongside AI.

It's so great that this fella shares so much of his knowledge with the world.

If the artist can be replaced so can the studio. People wont need access to a content creator or studio, they will just need the software.

Great talk! Next year I'll be there for the whole conference! Anyway, AI is a tool. Art requires mastering tools to bring an idea to life. Tools have been getting way more advanced since the digital era started. And with better tools more complex design will be possible. I don't see AI as a thread, but opportunity since new possibilities will arise. I don't believe there are any architects or engineers sad about the fact that they don't need to hand draw buildings and machines anymore. CAD (computer aided design) programs make more time available for design, iteration and improvement. Great design and art is not about creating as much work as possible, but knowing what to create and making the right decisions. If AI can show me all the options faster and better, than that would be awesome. Sure, in the short term some dumber jobs will disappear and some more complex will appear. But if things get too complex, they will split again in different fields of expertise, creating more jobs. I believe that the challenge will be to decide what to focus on and master. The options might become overwhelming. But to be honest, that is already the case for a beginner trying Blender for the first time ;)

Fabulous presentation - really good all round. I have been following Two Minute Papers YT channel for a while and have been amazed by these developments. In addition to these, there were research papers showing quick smoke animation, cloud generation with realistic internal lighting in milliseconds instead of hours (due to neural networks over raytracing). Everyone should check that channel out.

I feel a lot better after he added the last bit about job security.

Best Blender Conference I've ever watched

As a game developer, I'm already utilizing AI algorithms to procedurally model environments and assets. p.s. Houdini has a very steep learning curve though so be warned.

The one problem, and it's actually already happening now(due to outsourcing and AI), is that w/ these "bottom-level" jobs being replaced there are almost no way for Junior artists/designers to break into the industry(At big studios at-least). AI replaces the outsourced studio, yes, but it also replaces the intern, the junior artist, etc. Obviously with these timesaving features freelancers and smaller studios will be able to take on much higher workloads. So there may be other avenues into doing creative work. I just think it means fewer people working overall. Another huge problem is the eventual tanking of rates/salaries. If Adobe After Effects 2025 can auto-roto any shot and tons of other routine tasks I can foresee people with even less training being able to pick it up as a side-skill. Look at what happned to Photographers, Graphics Designers, and even Flame Artists. Their rates went down significantly... Ahhhh, who am I kidding? Adobe AE 2025 still won't have multi-threading...

Super well done talk! Thank you for the insight!

Incredible talk. Thank you!!!

Humans are really good very at spotting patterns, all this procedural content is amazing, but can feel clinical, and reoccurring patterns in the generation algorithm will make the AI generated elements feel more sterile, we may not even know why it feels off, but it will be percieved by many, at some level, but I do agree it will take over huge areas of production... But then things will go full circle, the AI generated stuff will start to feel cheaper and derivative ,because it is cheaper and derivative, which will, in the end drive the cost of hand crafted work up, so I think we will end up with less 3D artists/modellers/animators, but the remaining artists will be paid much more. And used more often for the higher budget projects.

60$/hour for modelling, texturing??? Where can I sign? :)

What a good video! Good job Andrew!

lol I still remember my first model in blender "the doughnut" and that was my genesis in blender. Thanks Andrew

It is all amazing as will enable individual people to make full length animations, computer games etc by using AI as their workers!

so if i type in HL3 it will just generate HL3?

Amazing talk. Thanks for sharing!

Very interesting! Thanks for posting

"Assets are unreasonably expensive" Said the guy who sells rocks for 300 bucks

man saw the future brah

Man I loved the presentation, especially the ending. :P Abrupt, but very effective no non-sense ending. Loved it.

Great to see you there man!

I could be wrong, but it seems like this just opens the door for more Assassins Creeds and Division's, Ghost Recon's and the like. You know the type, massive world with tons of stuff but you get bored pretty quickly because they don't spend the attention to detail and have a strong binding narrative like Witcher 3 for example. Or look at other consumer products you buy. Generally things that are made by "hand" instead of machines are much more expensive and higher valued. I bet in the future there will be companies who focus on using very little AI and instead on "handcrafting" their worlds and they will be the most thought after, because they will stand out as special/exquisite. Just like people *who can afford it* distance themselves from cheap machine produced food and gravitate towards natural, bio etc. People will always prefer handmade stuff. Look at the obvious value hierarchy in art: Oil painting > Digital painting > Photobashed/3D Painting > Pure 3D/Photo Of course you can't put absolute value on these examples, just talking about the respect and the money people would give for each category. The less machine is involved the higher the value/respect.

23:13 - 23:38 that sounds like a lot of people with out jobs, if they only need one concept artist. This part scares me a lot

finally someone that knows how to talk

Now I got 100% confirmation that we are living in a simulation.

I successfully made a donut!

So we're still the creators, the ones who decides what we would prefer in this or that. We are still going to be the DNA of the thing, the decision maker in the creation of anything. The grunt work is delegated out but the desire for the thing, the choosing of the created thing is still ours. Excellent. I'm better suited for and would enjoy that creator position anyway.

Welldone Andrew! 😎👍 Countless kudos.

Pix2pix is siiick