Nice video. However, you missed out to talk about checks with a critical failure state. In those cases, even if you are not able to increase the crit success range with the bonus, you will still decrease the crit failure range on top of increasing your success range, which makes that +1 bonus so much more significant.
@1dm5643 жыл бұрын
You're partially correct. When a check has a critical failure effect, that extends the range of natural rolls for which a +1 can modify the result in multiple ways. However, because success and failure have a range of 10 natural rolls (technically 9 for failure), it's never possible for there to be more than two ways for a +1 to modify the outcome of your roll. So yes, +1 is more consistently large on checks with a crit fail effect, but it won't become even more significant.
@russischerzar3 жыл бұрын
@@1dm564 What about the fact that you're dealing half damage on a successful saving throw from the opponent? Since with an attack you deal 0 damage, and on a successful save it still deals half. Does that make the +1 bonus worse?
@TarEcthelion3 жыл бұрын
@@russischerzar this was my thought also. A simple +1 can mean even more when it's a basic reflex save because you're juggling 4 outcomes the extremes bringing the damage to 0 or doubling it. Would be interesting to see the average damage numbers as seen through that lens.
@grandobsidian2 жыл бұрын
That's mostly an edge case. Since the video talked about basic strikes, critical failures are the same as failures. There are cases where a strike can deal half damage or a critical failure can consequences, they greatly complicate the math. Failures and crit fails are more important to spellcasters using saving throw, but the result of a crit is not always more damage. From experience, what this means as a whole is martial and magic classes can maintain similar damage outputs at every level, but magic users retain the feeling of power because they generally have 3 tiers of success and one tier of failure which means a -1 to an enemy saving throw should make a modifier nearly 3 times as effective.
@jasonweible2834 Жыл бұрын
@@grandobsidian You're right about his explanation only discussed attacks but the initial premise was "The Power of +1". That's why he brought up about saving throws and skill rolls. As @1dM mentioned, the +1 doesn't make it more than 2 times as effective because as soon as the difference between crit fail and fail becomes relevant, the difference between success and crit success becomes moot. The two cases are 20 units apart and you can't roll more than 20 on a d20. In effect, all it does is gets rid of the caveat completely. Almost like it was designed that way. Damn but the math in P2E is tight. It never ceases to amaze me how much thought they put into this system.
@Nagalipton2 жыл бұрын
At the risk of repeating what everyone else has said, this was a wonderful breakdown. My own personal hang up was addressed in this video. As an old school DnD player (started on 1st ed) I am not used to numbers going into super high ranges. Having over a +10 to hit (or thAC0 10) always felt like a lot. In Pathfinder it is not uncommon for people to eventually get to over 20 if not higher still. At that point a measly +1 felt akin to someone tossing a lit match to assist with a fireball spell. You helped remind me that in Pathfinder 2E the match rises with the players and tends to more or less stay in a 20 point range from crit fail to crit hit. Suddenly I'm back in my comfort zone. You rock my dude.
@TheBoredDungeonMaster3 жыл бұрын
This is a wonderful breakdown of PF2e math, really well done!
@SubjectTo3 жыл бұрын
This also doubles as an explanation of why maneuvers can be so useful, since they often provide ways of getting more of these small bonuses stacked up-- frightened 1 is equal to +1 on the attack roll, flatfooted to +2, in aggregate this significantly increases the effects of your bonuses in terms of both your success point and you critical success point. Since Pathfinder uses Double Damage for crits, every crit itself by default, is worth the damage of two landed attacks (before fatal and deadly and other weird stuff), so as the bonuses start paying dividends in critical hits across a round, you pretty much make up for a lost attack on the first crit, and gain net benefits on the second. This changes a little depending on the damage optimization of two characters, but in abstract principle its very true.
@ronaldsanfran3 жыл бұрын
Very thorough analysis! I would also add that in a typical fight in PF2E there are more checks that happen. Because of the 3 action system, it feels like there are maybe 2 or 3 times as many rolls as in a 5E fight. I almost never see a battle where a bard is using Inspire Courage the entire time, and it doesn't affect the outcome of at least one roll, and it's usually 2 or 3.
@redeux3 жыл бұрын
I did similar but less extensive number crunching before. I found it very interesting how the crit success/ fail mechanic end up putting a ceiling on your success/ fail percent (and then your odds of crit success/crit fail increase). Really enjoyed this video!
@rafasiqalv3 жыл бұрын
Your videos are really well made, little things like the +1 bonus interesting, and even more with the comparison to D&D 5e where you can get a +d4 from level 1, which would "just" make hit easier.
@TigerGeorgeUK3 жыл бұрын
Wow, yeah I really didn't think much of the +1, but this makes a lot of sense. Nice one man!
@johnrodarte73972 жыл бұрын
Please continue to make more content as you see fit. I am starting a new P2E campaign with 5e players new to Pathfinder. I am referencing this video as required watching for our new players. Your analyses in this and other videos is second to none on KZfaq. Please continue to make more videos. I especially appreciated the Grapple video you made.
@DanAmurskiy3 жыл бұрын
This is exactly the information I was looking for, but was too lazy to do math myself!
@marieking59692 жыл бұрын
I’m playing a bard right now at level 1 and my forbidding ward helped save a magus from a failed save. And I think inspire courage helped my party a good amount too.
@bl00dywelld0ne Жыл бұрын
Late to the party, but just wanted to say that this video kicks butt. Definitely going to share it with my players.
@quintinmirick84092 жыл бұрын
Great Vid. I put together similar code to do analysis of 'When is a dancing weapon worth two actions' and it cascaded into an entire project. Love seeing similar analysis reach similar conclusions that small tweaks are huge.
@madman_chris3 жыл бұрын
This is now almost mandatory for those coming to PF2E from D&D5E.
@IanWhite19793 жыл бұрын
I love this kind of crunch and find it fascinating. As a GM it allows me to better understand the impact rewards can have on players and how to plan out challenging combat encounters for them as well. I hope you keep making videos!
@jasonweible2834 Жыл бұрын
Very well done. I love the detailed analysis and it confirmed something I suspected but not really investigated.
@10Boxing Жыл бұрын
Fantastic video; I found your content recently and it's really good.
@danielkhandurov52053 жыл бұрын
Awesome video! Neatly and simply explains the importance of those little boosts everyone usually tells you about but has little to no explanaition on why they are actually important
@jeramiecooper19133 жыл бұрын
Thank you for the work and video presentation. I'm happy to see that you told both sides of the story regarding attacks. That is you told the story of how an increase in attack value makes it easier to hit, and you told the story of how AC changes. I feel there is more opportunity to talk about how NPC AC changes with respect to a PC level for different encounter challenge values. In the game of melee combat I feel there are at least four sides to the story: PC attacks, NPC defense, NPC quantity, and environment. I heard about you from the Know Direction podcast. Keep up the good work.
@bokajon2 жыл бұрын
Still one of the best pf2e videos! Thanks for doing the research! Would love to see a part 2 takes Critical Failures on skills and spells into account.
@danteinferno22933 жыл бұрын
This is awesome, well explained, and getting shared with my players.
@johnharrison20862 жыл бұрын
Good analysis. I love the underlying math in PF2 that is well designed.
@vladtheinhailer1428 Жыл бұрын
TY for the video, as a newcomer to PF2E I appreciate the breakdown. I'm glad I finally found a D&D/D&Dadjacent game with solid/tight math! D&D5E was 'supposed' to be that game but it soon became apparent in it's lifecycle the math was anything but 'tight', big disappointment.
@JonWaterfall3 жыл бұрын
Absolutely amazing! Now I'm also curious about re-roll effects like True Strike. Would it be possible to do a similar video on that?
@Zephz433 жыл бұрын
I've done the math on that and True Strike isn't that big of a deal in most cases. I calculated the damage for a fighter with True Strike, and even with Power Strike (which will require 3 actions in total) the damage only increases against very high AC. At that point you're not expected to do a lot of damage, so the reroll increases in value, but at levels 4 it's something like a +5 to expected damage (in the best case scenario) compared to Strike, Strike, Strike. Against low/medium AC creatures, you're better off striking thrice (or striking two times and doing something more valuable with the third action). But I agree that's an interesting topic, and since I only did the math on two handed martials, I would be interested to know when True Strike would be better applied.
@rasleyforde23633 жыл бұрын
I love number, so I love your content! This analysis is so important for the meta, thank you!
@DanielBennettEdtech2 жыл бұрын
Fantastic work. Thank you. I would love to see a similar analysis of spell DCs. Since we don’t have a spell dc modifier it would likely need to factor debuffs or penalties applied to the enemy.
@Denis-tw9zn2 жыл бұрын
Great video, really interesting
@fremkin85863 жыл бұрын
This is such a great analysis. Great work and looking forward to seeing more
@vestofholding2 жыл бұрын
Just found this channel, and great job on this!
@brunorosadesouza2971 Жыл бұрын
thanks for sharing this knowlege!!!
@mightymickey88792 жыл бұрын
Great video! This was one of the reasons many playtesters argued against the +10/-10 critical system because it pushed the game even further into hyper optimization by adding more value to every bonus.
@gunter433 жыл бұрын
Critical Failure on attack rolls matters if you face someone like an NPC swashbuckler that has a variation of Opportune Riposte, or those Painting creatures where you might break something behind them on a Critical Failure.
@harjutapa2 жыл бұрын
I love this! The KZfaq Algorithm brought me here, so you must be doing something right
@natebob54353 жыл бұрын
Well done analysis! Thank you.
@Ariakin883 жыл бұрын
Great video! Looking forward to more content
@deadpoolegor3 жыл бұрын
This a useful video, thank you for easy explanation! Keep going!
@Jasonwfd3 жыл бұрын
Interesting analysis!
@JavierSanchez-mo2ef Жыл бұрын
awesome stuff
@justindemay37083 жыл бұрын
Very nice video. Always like channels like this and I hope to see more:-)
@brothermutant73703 жыл бұрын
Thanks Mathman! You're the best!
@prixiusnecrolance8531 Жыл бұрын
The problem however, is when you are a caster, and your entire contribution falls flat at a net 60-80% (assuming you buff for +2 and debuff for -2)
@DimlyCandescent3 жыл бұрын
A possible video idea could be exploring the value of the Investigator's Devise a Stratgem ability. The value of a Strategic Strike is straight forward but what's the impact to a characters average damage when the Investigator has another target option on a low Stratagem roll both on the To Hit and average damage per round.
@kyleharder36543 жыл бұрын
Visuals are nice, keep it up
@jakubczeczot85003 жыл бұрын
Thanks , now I like those +1 :)
@makraiz3 жыл бұрын
Fantastic explainer!
@coledownlow36043 жыл бұрын
Very good video, thank you sir.
@real-potatogamer2 жыл бұрын
I like nerd math. This was a cool break down. I hope you do well! (y)
@cmeast3 жыл бұрын
Very cool, and I can see myself sending this to players of they have concerns about the effect their spells out items have. It's worth noting that criticals commonly have more effects than just damage, with many attacks and spell effects bring especially powerfully on a crit. This means that +1's, and giving -1 debuffs to enemies, can be even more impactful.
@michaelmoran9020 Жыл бұрын
What about when you compare it to the opportunity cost of not using the inspire courage cantrips action to do your own attacks.
@lorenzocazzoli7701 Жыл бұрын
Is there any way you would share the code used in the video? Or if you already have where would one be able to get it?
@anthonyjohncalabria61063 жыл бұрын
Thank you good Sir!
@jar8240 Жыл бұрын
Math makes my brain hurt. I'm curious how the mat works with things like deadly and fatal. Specifically, taking critical likelihood into account are you better with a d8 or a d6 (deadly d8)
@russischerzar3 жыл бұрын
Great video, awesome stuff. :D #mathfinder
@B-0192 жыл бұрын
Tangential: I'm SO glad they put a 1-hour immunity on Guidance. I got so sick of my Cleric players shouting "I cast Guidance" every other minute. Making that bonus less common but still impactful was a damn good decision.
@quark120002 жыл бұрын
Why do you only count a crit in 5e as 1.5 times normal damage? It should be doubled, just like in PF2e.
@bernhardschmidt98442 жыл бұрын
As noted in the video, in 5e you only double the dice while in PF2e you double everything, including damage. As an example, a character with 20 strength using a long sword one-handed would deal 1d8+5 on a hit or 2d8+5 on a crit. That would come out to 9.5 and 15 average damage, respectively, yielding a damage increase by about a factor of about 1.58. Obviously, the actual change strongly depends on how much of your damage comes from dice vs modifiers. A crit on a rogue's sneak attack will be much more effective, for example.
@sabin972 жыл бұрын
wait. critical hits in pathfinder 2e double the modifiers as well and not just the dice?
@1dm5642 жыл бұрын
Yup. Double everything except Deadly or Fatal dice.
@sabin972 жыл бұрын
@@1dm564 i might have been bamboozled by my dm.
@gerardofrivia84133 жыл бұрын
Instant sub!
@KainMalice2 жыл бұрын
I am curious to know the impact of a -1 now.
@lobiankk77 Жыл бұрын
Oh, now I get it why they say fighters are OP.
@jollyhoop3 жыл бұрын
Yiss! Math!
@MyBacktrail Жыл бұрын
You got your very first math wrong which leads me to question the credibility of the rest? A roll of 10-20 on a d20 is a chance to hit of 55%, not 50%.
@MMurine Жыл бұрын
No, the math is correct. You have a 45% chance to hit, a 50% chance to hit, and a 5% chance to critically hit. This works the same for most attacks (strikes) in both systems, because generally strikes have no critical failure effects in PF2e, though in that system your chance to hit can never be more than 50% (any excess turns into crit chance).
@StormRegaliaIV2 жыл бұрын
+1 doesn't mean sh*t if I can't roll above a 4
@hopeforescape8843 жыл бұрын
I'm a DnD player, but yeah +1 = +5% that's pretty big
@Majber3 жыл бұрын
Can you do videos about 1st editions?
@connorfreeman5825 Жыл бұрын
Daamge
@puckerings Жыл бұрын
"More powerful than it is in 5E" or in PF 1E is NOT synonymous with "powerful." The fact that it's most valuable on a third attack is NOT a point in its favour, because so very often attacking a third time is already suboptimal. The expected damage is so low that adding 20% to it isn't much. 20% of 10 is less valuable than 10% of 25. So you can't say the 20% is better if the base expected damage you're working off of is much lower.
@borg2863 жыл бұрын
You chose the lowest possible multiplier for gritting in 5e. Bad form, sir. You should not be looking at a ratio of increased damage to your previous damage. Instead you should be normalizing against a monster 2 levels below you. You do this by dividing your expected damage by a typical monster 2 levels below you. The second attack will then be put in perspective. Granted the +1 helps that second attack grow by 26%, but it still feels like crap when you miss most of the time. Normalizing against monster HP shows you objectively how much it helps.
@freischutz898 Жыл бұрын
This is a very dishonest way of looking at the math, most of that difference is coming from how the crits works and not the actual difference besides a 17% of difference over how many encounters? since in PF your chance of crit go down after the first attack to basically DnD levels at best how many rounds had to play out in order to matter? I am sorry but assuming that you give that +1 somehow in every attack over every round of combat to the same character an extra critical hit during the day at the cost of many actions does not seem very impactful to me, my biggest problem with PF 2e is that they seem to balance the whole thing like a MMORPG almost feels 4e-ish.