Especially if villain wants to over-bluff due to a player being new to these stakes 77 and possibly AK (though AK maybe blocks too many bluff catchers?) I think need to take the polar line of jamming too. If you have AK yourself it gets much closer, I don't think I'd fold but it wouldn't surprise me if you are supposed to against most players.

@@qazzaqstan yeah, that's also a good point. The hero is playing higher than his usual stakes, and they're playing the stand up game. Both factors might lead villain to bluff more. After thinking about this one a good bit, I really think all of the value hands that beat hero's hand are played differently. QQ is a 4-bet pre. JJ too, maybe, sometimes. QQ, JJ and QJ are betting bigger on this flop. QT is betting bigger on turn. I think even 77 is going to play differently, and would want to build the pot faster. When hero checks river, so many villains will think hero would never check a boat there, so it's a green light to value-bet AK or Qx, and maybe even Jx, given the underlying factors (higher stakes / standup game), and also turn hands like 99 and 88 into a bluff. If we're going to call here with TT, for all those reasons, I think it's also reasonable to call with AK, because we're still ahead of a lot of V's value range. I think once we give up the lead on the flop, and check-call two streets, check-calling the river is the best line. Jamming from up front is just losing value from all of V's worse hands. I don't think I'd check-jam after taking hero's line, because V can't call with much hero beats.

No one should ever fold here

This was a very interesting hand. Hero showed a lot of heart calling flop & turn when he could easily be crushed. River seemed like the least interesting part to me. Because in my mind folding after hitting a miracle card like that would be insane. It was calling the turn here that took guts.

​@@EllieBanks333 Very much so. There aren't many strong value hands or good draws that we'd check on this flop after 3B'ing pre. It gets really hard for us to continue with anything in our range with the 2nd Q on the turn. 3B'ing pre-flop here with TT may be too aggro, but if we do 3B pre, I think we need to follow-through with a c-bet on the flop, to represent more value hands. If we c-bet flop, we can either bet again or check turn and expect V to check back a lot.

Yeah: I can only strongly assume that Solver checks back the River a LOT when we are not leading; the T is quite the game changer, turning Qx mostly into a bluffcatcher, as even some 98dd would get there.

I'd never heard of "EV regret" before reading this comment. My guess is it's the delta (difference) between the EV of a GTO action and player's actual action? So if the solver checks flop 70%, and hero checks 100%, the regret equals 30%? Thinking about the way this was played vs what the solver says - hero having 99/TT doesn't seem all that much different than AA/KK here, in that it seems like hero should either check and let V bluff or bet to charge V's draws with all those hands, but play them all the same way, using the same logic, at least until the river. It does seem like all of the value hands in V's range that hero is losing to would want to take larger sizing on flop and turn, so it's hard to credit V with a boat or quads. Intuitively, I think I'd have a hard time checking river with hero's hand here, when the T's suits block so much of V's bluffing range, and V isn't very likely to barrel with the weakest parts of his value range.

@@1vailchris EV Regret is the difference in EV between one strategy and another. In this specific example, the EV regret is around 5%. What that means is compared to the solver strategy of mixing checks and bets, checking 100% will result in 5% lower EV on average.

@@michaelpreminger4259 Understand I'm not a solver guy, so please excuse me if this is dumb. So if I understand correctly, the solver likes checking hero's hand 70% of the time and betting 30% of the time? How does that get implemented in real time? Hero's supposed to randomize it in some way? Or is hero supposed to bet the best 70% of his range and check the other 30%? I take it the solver likes checking hero's specific hand on this board?

@@1vailchris Hero could, as an example, look at the second hand of a clock - if it's at 1-42 seconds, check. Otherwise, bet.

Did villain play it well? What's hero's preflop range with a 7x 3bet in this format? From a tight player 6 handed I would think 99 would be the bottom, all higher pairs, AK, and maybe AQs. A smaller 3bet would have given hero a wider range. The flop and turn bet folds out some 99,1010. With the bloated pot, the standup game, hero out of position, and hero being tight, you could really narrow hero's range. He bets flop with AQs, any set, and any overpair. That leaves him with a few underpairs to the J, AK of diamond, and maybe an occasional slow played top set. On the river, villain is getting called by AK diamond, quads, 1010. 3-6 combos depending on frequencies. The only hand he beats is some 99. Villain could have bet half pot on the river and accomplished the same thing. He folds out 99 and saves $4500 when hero has a monster. For the allin to have any merit, you would have to think hero checks the flop with flop with AA at a high frequency. Even then, you would have to think hero is a nit not to call with that hand.

@@AT-bw4cm I am not saying that the hero is a nit. I am saying that the villain recognized that the hero was scared of playing for his entire stack.

@@AT-bw4cm Your assumption on the hero's range in this situation completely ignores that this is a stand up game where the hero hasn't won a hand yet. They talked about that significantly in the video, how the heck did you leave that out of your analysis and decide that the hero has a super tight three betting range preflop?

@@gabrielrockman "You" meaning someone looking at the situation from villain's perspective. Hero described himself as tight/scared money. Villain being a good player would know that. Even if he and another player were the last not to have a button, would a tight/scared money player make a massive 7x raise (35 big blinds) over a 5x open to $700 against a player he thinks is very good with a speculative hand? The fee for being last to sit down is $500. The more the scared money plus the more bloated the pot equals the more that player will play face up.

@@AT-bw4cm Yes, a scared player would most definitely make a 7x raise over a 5x open with a speculative hand, if they're playing the stand up game. Betting so large that you increase the chance of everyone else folding is exactly what a scared player would do. Scared players don't make small bets that have 0% fold equity. They tend to make bets that are too large because they'd like to see everyone else fold.

Agree x2

The argument for folding would be if you interpret his small sizing on the turn to be indicative of a nut full house type hand i.e. QJ, QQ, JJ. A person would bet smaller with that hand to entice you to chase your straight or flush draw and then he could bomb the river assuming that (a) you are only calling any bet if you made your hand and (b) if you rivered the hand you were chasing you're unlikely to fold for any amount. But if you're ever folding here with this hand absent some stone read on them it just means you're playing too big for your comfort level / bankroll.

I may be wrong, but...when V over-bet jams river, it looks like he's representing a better hand, like QQ, QJ, JJ, or QT. Many of V's bluffs would have one of the T"s in hero's hand, like KdTd, Tc9c, etc, so hero is blocking some of V"s most likely bluffs. He wouldn't want diamonds or clubs here, he wants villain to have them. Hero 3B pre, then checked to V on every street, and V bet each time. Hero could have been drawing dead on the turn against all of V's boated up hands, and V is less likely to continue bluffing with his missed draws after hero check-called the previous two streets, because it doesn't look like hero is likely to fold. So V doesn't have many bluffs, and hero is only ahead of a portion of V's value-betting range. He's beating straights and trip Q's, and a few bluffs, but losing to V's boats.

@@user-zb7vn9zc8w agreed. I think we could also look at the pre-flop action and V's bet-sizing on the flop, and somewhat discount some of those combos that beat hero. V would probably 4-bet QQ pre, and maybe even JJ with some frequency. V should be folding QTs pre there, at least some of the time. With QQ, JJ, or QJ, V would likely bet bigger on flop. QT would probably bet bigger on turn. Hard for me to credit V with a boat given the way the action played out. I'd be more likely to put him on AKo, AQ, KQ, or just a missed draw.

​@@user-zb7vn9zc8wThat's an argument for folding the turn - not the river after you boat up lol.

I'd never have played this hand in this manner, but if I did somehow arrive at the river in this situation --> I'm never even considering a fold.

I was thinking V might turn some smaller pairs into bluffs, just because hero checked flop and turn.

Sometimes villain has a wide range. Such is life.

that's how you should think about the game. breaking down a range into broadways, suited cons, and pairs helps prevent you from narrowing down onto specific hands and losing EV by not considering villain's range. it's a very common tactic for range morphology when villain is polar/wide

I would assume AA KK takes more aggressive line, esp on flop.

I think it comes from the dylan gang/ garret adelstein deal where dylan says "youre good" to get garret to show, but then flips the winner in a dirty slowroll

Elaborate

Lol bad reg identified

The fuck are you talking about?

@timothyburke6949 why?

I'm trying to figure out the meaning of your post. The first sentence refers to the call [caller?]. In the second, "analysis" seems directed towards Bart. And that is strange, because this is one where Bart is clearly correct on every street. 2 of which are not even questionable. Hero can never fold to 1/3 sizing on flop as the pre-flop 3 bettor, that would be insane. Having reached the river & hitting a 2 out draw for a boat, folding is completely ridiculous nonsense. So you must mean pre-flop or turn. Hero's sizing pre-flop is a little large, but 3 betting TT in this spot is standard. The turn is the most controversial or subject of opinion play. Hero is beating nothing of value & is rarely improving [ofc he did this time]. But Bart clearly said he kind of wants to fold. So I'm having a hard time finding a major analysis flaw.

very true. However, You also have to know what you're doing...otehrwise, there will be no bankroll soon!

IP absolutely has an EV advantage.

No those are flating with the huge preflop war

He starts with 8955 effective, dafuq are you talking about?

The suits matter, but I'd argue that they don't matter a lot, in fact they matter a little. Please explain how the elimination of 1 of 13 suited cards can be used to rule out flushes?

@@hogi99 I agree with you. People put WAY to much into "Blockers". having only 1 of 13 cards really doesn't block a dam thing unless you have the Ace. then you just block the nuts.

@@hogi99 because its not just the T. youre ruling out likely combos of JTs, T9s, and T8s etc.

@@hogi99because there is a Q of diamonds, and we have a 10 of diamonds, we can safely rule out that combo. Same for Q10 spades, as it’s on the board. we also have a 10 of clubs, so the villain can’t be playing Q10 of clubs. If you want to get complex, that means the villain range is less likely to have hands like 10 9 of clubs, J10 of clubs/diamonds. We don’t mind a call in spots like this when we have that kind of information.

@@hogi99 Seems like a lot of V's most-likely missed-draw bluffing combos would have the Td or Tc in them - AT, KT, JT, T9, plus maybe some T8 - all combo-draws on this flop. Other than those, maybe V is turning 88/99 or some weaker pairs into a bluff. But if we had the choice, I'd rather have the Th here than the Td, simply because it puts more potential bluffs into V's range. Taking all those 8 to 10 combos of Tx hands out of V's range leaves him with just smaller pairs and some AdXd combos that aren't as likely to continue barreling on the river when hero check-calls the previous two streets. V's value-betting range on the river includes 7 bigger boats or quads hero loses to, 3 smaller boats (77) hero beats, 12 combos of AKo (assuming V 4-bets AKs pre) and 4 combos of 98s for straights (assuming he bets all his straights). That's 19 value combos he beats, plus whatever V might be bluffing with, but because hero has the Td and Tc in his hand, the removal effects weight V's range more towards value.

He paid for the info! Villain NEEDS to SHOW! /s

@@chau5terLol that’s NOT how it works

It's not only the ten of diamonds, he also has the ten of clubs, which blocks the backdoor flush draw hands.

Says sitting down playing poker is bad for health; comment probably posted whilst sitting down at an office

He clearly said they are not allowed to stand up

I have seen at least two players died at poker table by playing long hours. HCL not allowed to stand up sends a bad example to the poker industry due to their streaming popularity. Some poker players playing 10-16 hours a day, more than office people, without knowing the health toll on their body. IMV, that can’t be good for poker community.

@@jacklai8592 It's not about Hustler, only you are bringing them up and you're doing so deflect from your original post. You were criticising the players for not standing, when it was the casino (which wasn't Hustler) that made the decision and enforced the rule. Also, they did not die from playing too much poker, that's fucking moronic. They died from their lifestyles and poor health decisions.

Ha! Villain had AK. His play would’ve worked had one or two 10’s not come on the river. Possibly a Queen but I got the feeling you fold to Queen on river. I wouldn’t have played it like that but you got max out of it. I would’ve limped and folded on flop.

All in pre flop? You must be kidding

Honey he wanted to jam 450 blinds pre flop

@@sr4087 with not even suited 10s !

@@sr4087 I just LOL'd!

That doesn't qualify as a comment.

Pathetic..

Your mother was Bart's first. 😂

😅😅😅

Bart gave it to her wearing his turtleneck sweater.