How Big Banks Stack Up to Silicon Valley Bank - Are Big Unrealized Losses a Risk?

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The Plain Bagel

The Plain Bagel

Жыл бұрын

This video is sponsored by Blinkist - get 25% off Blinkist premium (with 2 memberships for the price of 1) PLUS a 7-day free trial here: www.blinkist.com/theplainbagel
Some articles have raised concerns over big unrealized losses at America's big banks - let's talk about it.
DISCLAIMER: Richard does not hold a position in any of the companies mentioned in this video. This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice - Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Please seek out a registered advisor if you require assistance (while Richard is a registered portfolio manager at WDS Investment Management, he does not provide advice through The Plain Bagel, which is not affiliated with his employer).

Пікірлер: 250
@ThePlainBagel
@ThePlainBagel Жыл бұрын
Happy Friday! This video is sponsored by Blinkist - get 25% off Blinkist premium (with 2 memberships for the price of 1) PLUS a 7-day free trial here: www.blinkist.com/theplainbagel
@JTTheDrummer
@JTTheDrummer Жыл бұрын
Yay! New Plain Bagel Vid!
@alainportant6412
@alainportant6412 Жыл бұрын
@@JTTheDrummer Bagels are gross.
@OslerS
@OslerS Жыл бұрын
Dude I just bought my annual blinkist subscription last month T-T
@dameneko
@dameneko Жыл бұрын
Thanks for this video. I have thoughts on the BTFP allowing banks to value their long-term assets at par for a one year loan, especially MBS, but perhaps that could be a deeper dive for another time. Would love to see you cover CBDC and FedNow.
@akaman85
@akaman85 Жыл бұрын
As a former Prudential Banking Regulator, I approve this explainer. Great job as always Richard.
@Theiliteritesbian
@Theiliteritesbian Жыл бұрын
@@hannah60000 appeal to authority? Its youtube. As the former czar of all banks and president of the s&p 500 I disagree with you and recommend you remember the format we are on.
@hannah60000
@hannah60000 Жыл бұрын
Well, this would be a false appeal to authority. Just because you worked for the PRA (Prudential Regulation Authority - a UK banking sector regulator) does not mean your approval holds any weight. Further to the above, we do not know what role you held or how long you worked at the PRA. I agree that this video is clear with good information.
@hannah60000
@hannah60000 Жыл бұрын
@@Theiliteritesbian Perhaps you need to re-read the original comment where the writer felt the needed to “approve” the Plain Bagel’s video/content based on where they claimed to work in a foreign jurisdiction. Just a thought!
@akaman85
@akaman85 Жыл бұрын
@@hannah60000 1) There are prudential banking regulators all over the world. In Canada: OSFI. In the US: OCC. Prudential regulation does not mean that one only works for the PRA. 2) The only appeal to authority I’m making is to Richard. All hail the great Plain Bagel, the most trustworthy resource in KZfaq Finance.
@seliamila1005
@seliamila1005 Жыл бұрын
@@hannah60000 You can't understand context or common saying lmao
@Leb.ertarian
@Leb.ertarian Жыл бұрын
Still the best in the KZfaq financial space. Real, clean information that is easily digestible.
@cooper1507
@cooper1507 Жыл бұрын
I’m want him and Kyla Scanlon to do a collab
@feketetv
@feketetv Жыл бұрын
@@cooper1507 or Patrick Boyle
@dameneko
@dameneko Жыл бұрын
100% -- Richard's videos are very shareable in that way!
@Jose04537
@Jose04537 Жыл бұрын
And most important, not click bait gloom and doom.
@hannah60000
@hannah60000 Жыл бұрын
@@feketetv Already happened
@jb_makesgames2264
@jb_makesgames2264 Жыл бұрын
As a former banker - your video was excellent and rare to be found on KZfaq. Another point you should have brought up is that the regulatory rules in the US are different from the global Basel rules that make comparing US/non-US banks. In the end the government will backstop all banks..
@tomlxyz
@tomlxyz Жыл бұрын
I think your second sentence is missing something in the end.
@KingUnKaged
@KingUnKaged Жыл бұрын
Every now and then, I watch a video like this one and am reminded of just how far down the rabbit hole we really are. Imagine starting a conversation in any other context with the phrase: "You've probably seen one of these articles about the massive unrealised losses of US banks." I'd imagine it's the inverse of the time a friend tried to explain to me what a Vanderpump was.
@placeholderdoe
@placeholderdoe 9 ай бұрын
What’s a vanderpump
@vitamins-and-iron
@vitamins-and-iron 5 ай бұрын
What’s a vanderpump
@antiantiderivative
@antiantiderivative 3 ай бұрын
What’s a vanderpump
@brinistaco1970
@brinistaco1970 Жыл бұрын
as an electrician, after the first 10 minutes, I was completely over my head. I am glad that you post these and most of the time , I get it. Seems like we don't have to worry, right?
@PeterJavi
@PeterJavi Жыл бұрын
With these 4 banks, everything is fine, even if they would experience a catastrophic event
@MrSupernova111
@MrSupernova111 Жыл бұрын
As it should be. I have a degree in finance and I studied this stuff in college. I even did various evaluation presentations on banking and I still have to reference information because its a lot of technical data. To the last point, none of these matters now for the layman because the FDIC is backing all depositors.
@moneysins
@moneysins Жыл бұрын
I remember when LIBOR was found to be problematic and no one wanted to do anything because fixing the problem will impede underwriting profits… good times
@tomlxyz
@tomlxyz Жыл бұрын
Can you add more details about what you're referring to?
@moneysins
@moneysins Жыл бұрын
@@tomlxyz rewriting all the LIBOR based contracts to be based on something like SOPR would’ve taken months, slowing down loan origination, and origination volume was a key determinant for bonus payment from the entry level underwriter to the Chief Loan Officer
@TheNaldiin
@TheNaldiin Жыл бұрын
​@MoneySins I agree with your breakdown but they may be asking what LIBOR is.
@moneysins
@moneysins Жыл бұрын
@@TheNaldiin Oh, it’s the rates banks charge to borrow money short term from each over, L stands for London, and as the city lost it’s “center of finance” status, the volume of interbank borrowings that made up LIBOR declined relative to global transactions; you ended up on a situation where trillions of dollars of lending were based on an interest rate derived from the lending ebbs and flow of few billion dollars. That opened it up to manipulation which is eventually what happened. Years ago when I used to work for a major bank my team and I floated this issue to C-suite repeatedly, and even with the CEO’s blessing nothing could be done. The motivation to not interrupt the bonus train was just too entrenched.
@thunderb00m
@thunderb00m Жыл бұрын
@@moneysins im shocked, shocked that bankers who are famously the most altruistic people succumbed to greed. Never has this ever happened before /s
@austingross8567
@austingross8567 Жыл бұрын
As a finance major your videos are great for staying up to date in the industry
@GreenHotDogz
@GreenHotDogz Жыл бұрын
Thanks for all your insight, Richard. After watching your videos for nearly 3 years, I've finally managed to get somewhere compared to the big meme stock days 😂😊
@MathematicsStudent
@MathematicsStudent Жыл бұрын
This was a very fun video! I would love to see other videos featuring spreadsheets breaking down topical issues in the financial and business world
@tmichera
@tmichera Жыл бұрын
Yes it was simple and clear with total amount and %
@CelesteMejia-dx2ow
@CelesteMejia-dx2ow Жыл бұрын
@plainbagel
@ricowtfyoufailorg
@ricowtfyoufailorg Жыл бұрын
As a Canadian KZfaqr, can you give some insight on TD Bank and how it is the most shorted bank? And how does this affect the average investor who is not in Canada?
@theviceinvirtue
@theviceinvirtue Жыл бұрын
Glad I scrolled through the comments, I was going to ask him to do a similar video on the big Canadian banks, especially with what's been going on at TD
@albertooo880
@albertooo880 Жыл бұрын
Excellent video!! I was just wondering about this very topic for these “too big to fail” banks. Thank you for being an amazing educator!!
@nixic_
@nixic_ Жыл бұрын
fav YT channel by far, thx for sharing your insights
@___________________________000
@___________________________000 Жыл бұрын
Love these more technical videos. Been a fan for ages, learned a lot from you, also really enjoy your goofier videos, but seeing analysis like this in practice is a different beast entirely and I'm so here for it
@dlyon9673
@dlyon9673 Жыл бұрын
Thanks for this excellent and informative video! By far the best explanation I have seen regarding the current banking situation. It would be great if you could delve further into the situation of the regional banks.
@krzysszymanski4922
@krzysszymanski4922 Жыл бұрын
I love this content! Please make more videos with spreadsheets, the educational value of this is insane!
@Bob-ke9in
@Bob-ke9in Жыл бұрын
Excellent video. Glad I subscribed.
@horiaungureanu4547
@horiaungureanu4547 Жыл бұрын
Great content, was really informative! Thank you!
@fplbrunoo858
@fplbrunoo858 Жыл бұрын
I just prepared a report on the same thing for my bank. I must say you covered it really well. Top tier knowledge
@jackterranova
@jackterranova Жыл бұрын
Easily the most informative media piece on the current banking situation ANYWHERE. Thanks for this awesome breakdown, Richard.
@zachm.4881
@zachm.4881 Жыл бұрын
Very helpful visuals and terms explained PB!
@brettrace
@brettrace Жыл бұрын
Why does Canada get "housing crash imminent" fear articles every other week since 2008? If they haven't been right since 2008, is it only a matter of time? What do you think of the most recent scary articles about TD? From what i see, its a bunch of shareholders on both sides of the TD/First Horizon that just don't like that deal.
@marinal2705
@marinal2705 Жыл бұрын
Question, a lot of this is rating-based, how accurate is the rating? I'm just thinking of the '08 crisis where ratings were laughably and devastatingly deceiving. I know it's completely different rating but just wondering.
@HH-le1vi
@HH-le1vi Жыл бұрын
Depends on the debt itself. Auto loan securities ratings are largely a joke. Mortgage securities are pretty good post 08 mortgage changes. Basically if it's really easy to get a loan, meaning not much vetting the more useless the rating is.
@samsonsoturian6013
@samsonsoturian6013 Жыл бұрын
The only things marked as risk free is government bonds and cash.
@ExcelTutorials1
@ExcelTutorials1 Жыл бұрын
This video was a hard throw back to intermediate accounting, lol. Great video!
@treykorte6984
@treykorte6984 Жыл бұрын
Fantastic information, explained clearly. Great work, and thank you.
@enriquemoranmartunez6736
@enriquemoranmartunez6736 Жыл бұрын
Another amazing and interesting video dear sir . All these subjects are a black box for common people but you make them easier to understand.
@renzo9497
@renzo9497 Жыл бұрын
Another great video. thank you richard for this amazing breakdown.
@dav0625
@dav0625 Жыл бұрын
Quite technical one, thank you 👍
@ml.9106
@ml.9106 Жыл бұрын
Super informative! Thanks
@David.Marquez
@David.Marquez Жыл бұрын
I remember when the pandemic started the big banks did a stress test to see if they were in sound shape, and only Wells Fargo had to change anything from this test. Doesn't mean banks are perfect, but big banks are definitely different.
@dnap1991
@dnap1991 Жыл бұрын
in Fed stress tests, in the severe scenario, Citi is the only big bank still profitable. Yet the stock is the cheapest as ROE is lower... that should change as C should be priced as a utility = super safe boring (unlike 2008 Citi which included citi holdings they got rid off= which was the part trading crap woth hedge funds). citi is from far the best value, makes no sense it is the cheapest (less than 50pct tangible book) despite the most diversified balance sheet. Lower ROE than JPM but that is due to the nature of Citi's business: mostly shorter duration insanely sticky flows through TTS (treasury services: typically when Apple and the likes makes payments to or from subs aroubd the world). lower ROE but it is a FAR LOWER RISK BUSINESS! Due to 1) shorter duration trades and 2) the nature of counterparts. jpm trades with more hedge funds, asset managers while Citi's largest business is real flows from US and EU investment grade corporates and their subs (with credit garantee at parent level so the credit risk is Apple, LVMH, Nike etc. not the subsidiary).
@wheatthicks
@wheatthicks Жыл бұрын
The same Wells Fargo who keeps getting caught systematically stealing from their customers? Shocking.
@bubba99009
@bubba99009 Жыл бұрын
Bigger is always safer since they become implicitly government backed - the government will always be there to bail out anybody deemed too big to fail. Plenty of downside to the consolidation though.
@wheatthicks
@wheatthicks Жыл бұрын
@@bubba99009 Wait until you learn about FDIC insurance.
@bubba99009
@bubba99009 Жыл бұрын
@@wheatthicks the big guys have defacto unlimited depositor insurance unlike the small guys where depositors over 250k get stiffed
@phath2007
@phath2007 Жыл бұрын
Awesome explanation Richard, backed with numbers to demonstrate. Thanks!
@Genericmember
@Genericmember Жыл бұрын
Great video, thank you.
@andrescast
@andrescast Жыл бұрын
Excellent content, thanks Richard.
@mysocalledknife07
@mysocalledknife07 Жыл бұрын
Really solid video, Richard. Nice work.
@willlefebre2930
@willlefebre2930 Жыл бұрын
Well said, thank you Richard!
@farizshj
@farizshj Жыл бұрын
An excellent take on the issue Richard. Top notch content!
@Rileylab1
@Rileylab1 Жыл бұрын
lovely video mr plain bagel, love the dd. This hits the heart. Curious to see FRC's CET1 Capital
@pm3390
@pm3390 Жыл бұрын
A few comments / additions (1) CET is really about measuring credit risk (and yes that is likely the biggest shortfall of bank regulation). The very design of that ratio encourages investment in govies given the 0% risk weighting (= no equity requirement). There is indeed no consideration for duration risk in equity capital rules at present. I think the idea was that deposit insurance would cover this, but that is a bit debatable, especially as there is no penalty for deposit conversion. (2) svb is sort of an example of how the banking (and fund/insurance) sector is absorbing rate increases from the government debt stack. (3) the real crux (in europe especially) that is still largely ignored are fixed rate mortgages / loans on the books where no mtm losses are taken. Especially mortgages in europe span 30+ years 9n fixed rates. Now European regulators say that these banks hold cet against these. While that is correct, the Cet is meant to cover credit losses on a PoD x LGD basis, not rate risk. Thus a combination of higher credit losses and deposit withdrawal would be quite critical
@chrisd1773
@chrisd1773 Жыл бұрын
Solid content
@delinquense
@delinquense Жыл бұрын
Nice explanation... clear and simple
@christianweibrecht6555
@christianweibrecht6555 Жыл бұрын
after spending too much time on twitter im happy to an economics commenter who is not a hyperbolic doomsayer
@midimusicforever
@midimusicforever Жыл бұрын
Thanks for being level headed. We need more of that in this time of sensationalism.
@adc9270
@adc9270 Жыл бұрын
Excellent video. I learned a lot about how banks work in 15 minutes.
@Confucius_Says...
@Confucius_Says... Жыл бұрын
Fantastic video ‼️
@michaelswami
@michaelswami Жыл бұрын
Thank you Richard. I would like to see a comparison between what we are seeing today and 2008. I think ‘08 was far worse, but curious what you think.
@lennartneubauer1
@lennartneubauer1 Жыл бұрын
Great Video!
@robertnervoso771
@robertnervoso771 Жыл бұрын
Excelent vídeo for sleep on this vacation!
@dalay-lam2285
@dalay-lam2285 Жыл бұрын
Thanks from Vancouver!!
@janetwilliams7705
@janetwilliams7705 Жыл бұрын
Thank you!
@moneysins
@moneysins Жыл бұрын
At some point high rates will kill banks profits, if people just stops borrowing; pretty sure that will also bring down the economy but interesting thought experiment
@tomlxyz
@tomlxyz Жыл бұрын
The payday loan industry begs to differ
@chowsquid
@chowsquid Жыл бұрын
13:51 here. Banks actually make money when rates rise.🎉🎉🎉
@HH-le1vi
@HH-le1vi Жыл бұрын
Rates don't kill profit, they kill revenue. Less loans means money. Profits are significantly higher with higher rates unless they pull a SVB and buy tons of bonds before rates go way way up.
@dnap1991
@dnap1991 Жыл бұрын
@@HH-le1vi funny how everybody was saying higher rates = higher revenues for banks and now it is the opposite 😂😂😂. Well here is the truth: medium to long term, higher rates = far far higher profits for banks. Short term= creates pressure in the economy and banks have a 6/12 months period to adapt. But overall higher rates = more money, not due to mortgages as banks (especially large ones) dont keep most mortgages in the books but mostly because spreads on everything OTC from rates, swaps, insurance, deposits, FX etc are a percentage of rates. When rates are at 5pct it is easy to take a 0,10pct margin from a client.. when rates are at zero 0,10 is a lot
@samsonsoturian6013
@samsonsoturian6013 Жыл бұрын
Profits on loans will go up, though. There will be a bank, even if there are fewer bankers.
@jsauerfinancial8257
@jsauerfinancial8257 Жыл бұрын
Great Video, Do the Canadian Banks Next!
@paddaydaddy
@paddaydaddy Жыл бұрын
Nice lighting in this video
@alanbi470
@alanbi470 Жыл бұрын
Hey Richard, great video as always. Do you have any theories as to why JPM chase is the only of the big four banks projected to lose money with a 100 bps hike? The only plausible explanation I could come up with is fewer IPOs in a high interest rate environment, and JPM oversees the most IPOs out of the big four.
@Idontgivechainsaw
@Idontgivechainsaw Жыл бұрын
I am Impressed!! You beat Patrick Boyle with explaination of the issiue with SVB. Taking in the account that your video is late, there is a even. You both nailed it. I really apreciate it.
@JoselitoBurrito
@JoselitoBurrito Жыл бұрын
As someone who uses BAC I feel very uneasy after your video with their unrealized losses. I wish they did better management knowing their terrible past and their less than recommended services, apps, and phone assistance.
@grif13
@grif13 Жыл бұрын
Mr. B. Informative video as always. For a fictionalized read of bank runs (which are almost life-like) I would recommend Noble House by Clavell or The Count of Monte Cristo by Dumas. Nothing in the minds and banks of mankind is so new that it hasn't been done or thought of before. All the best. Thanks again.
@Amir-jn5mo
@Amir-jn5mo Жыл бұрын
wait there is a bank run story in Count of Monto Cristo?
@hnr9lt-pz7bn
@hnr9lt-pz7bn Жыл бұрын
​@@Amir-jn5mo certainly you've never follow taleb..
@moneysins
@moneysins Жыл бұрын
It’s really no surprise JP Morgan is the best of the bunch, regardless of your opinion on Jamie Diamon, he is the Napoleon of modern banking
@mlejki1785
@mlejki1785 Жыл бұрын
lizard man
@dnap1991
@dnap1991 Жыл бұрын
citi is from far the best value, makes no sense it is the cheapest (less than 50pct tangible book, basically like buying JPM at 75pct discount) despite the most diversified balance sheet. Lower ROE than JPM but that is due to the nature of Citi's business: mostly shorter duration insanely sticky flows through TTS (treasury services: typically when Apple and the likes makes payments to or from subs aroubd the world). lower ROE but it is a FAR LOWER RISK BUSINESS! Due to 1) shorter duration trades and 2) the nature of counterparts. jpm trades with more hedge funds, asset managers while Citi's largest business is real flows from US and EU investment grade corporates and their subs (with credit garantee at parent level so the credit risk is Apple, LVMH, Nike etc. not the subsidiary).
@thunderb00m
@thunderb00m Жыл бұрын
Lol, hes no better than the rest, just that his bank is much bigger than others. He also fights regulation just like svb. But hes much less successful bcause after 2008 big banks' reputation took such a hit that it will not recover, at least not in my lifetime. Smaller banks are much more successful in lobbying against regulation becuase they are small relative to economy and backlash if they fail is limited.
@moneysins
@moneysins Жыл бұрын
@@thunderb00m JP Morgan’s weighted average asset quality is leagues above others; they’ve always been prudent to accept less growth to avoid unnecessary risks, such as during the junk debt boom a few years ago. To outsiders all banks can look the same, but JP Morgan is fundamentally built differently
@bunnerkins
@bunnerkins Жыл бұрын
I agree. Jamie Dimon does not give a fuck how high the bodies stack so long as he gets what he wants. I am of course assuming you are talking about the Napoleon that existed near the end of his career that pissed on everything and everyone that didn't do what he wanted, and not the early career Napoleon that was responsible for dramatically increasing government regulation to benefit social welfare and literally created the first central bank of France because he believed that financial regulation benefited the people.
@jlul1136
@jlul1136 Жыл бұрын
finally a reasonable video on the topic 👍
@CelesteMejia-dx2ow
@CelesteMejia-dx2ow Жыл бұрын
Loving the excel blackout for presentations! Thinking of using it myself if that's ok!
@ThePlainBagel
@ThePlainBagel Жыл бұрын
Of course!
@paintwithtihani9926
@paintwithtihani9926 Жыл бұрын
Channel that im looking forward to for new vids ✨
@thewilltheway
@thewilltheway Жыл бұрын
I hope I can find a finance/investment advisor with Richard’s qualities. Richard, I know that you like to keep your Investment Advising/Analysis and KZfaq profession separate (which I admire you for), but if you could recommend some Advisors in the US I would love to have a consultation meeting and see if they’re a good fit.
@benjaminberuh6925
@benjaminberuh6925 Жыл бұрын
Great video Richard, I have yet to see anyone do this high level and in depth work on the uninsured deposit percentage/HTM issues of the major banks. Would you be able to share links to your sources as I have struggled to find some of this information on my own.
@ThePlainBagel
@ThePlainBagel Жыл бұрын
All the information came from 10K filings and Basel III disclosure documents. They can be found on each company’s investor relations website, or the Edgar database
@willsupernintendo
@willsupernintendo Жыл бұрын
1st youtuber I have seen explain it properly ie. Gsib, hqla and basel 3. Nice!
@seanwebb605
@seanwebb605 Жыл бұрын
Oh a little Hill Streets Blues reference at the end. Nice.
@Lazaven
@Lazaven Жыл бұрын
As someone who's studying for the series 65 I love this content
@abhaabha7850
@abhaabha7850 Жыл бұрын
Can you make a basics of interest rates and inflation video pleaseeeee, i want to understand how Interest rates work ukwim ? How they are determined and what affects them and everything…maybe there’s more but i can’t articulate it…would love to see you curate something around the lines of basics of economics ! xoxo
@OddTJ
@OddTJ Жыл бұрын
So how do we square the value that regional banks provide in serving underbanked areas (e.g. regional banks were more efficient than national banks at covid relief fund distribution, per the Federal Reserve) with their relatively high susceptibility to bank runs? Does the FDIC cover this well enough that it's irrelevant in most cases and SVB is an outlier? It's pretty easy for the average person to use a "Big Bank" today through online banking; I use CITI for credit and checking and have never been to a physical branch. Are regional banks even necessary if they carry so much systemic risk?
@charlieb8735
@charlieb8735 Жыл бұрын
The part that I’m wondering about now is how much of the interest hedging derivatives the banks are holding (if any) are centrally cleared. The counterparty risk of derivatives was considered to be a contributor to both the real and perceived risk of contagion in 2008. Any sort of large scale liquidity panic could be be up seeing that become relevant again. Is there any risk calculation based on that in the accounting of derivatives/hedging that were referenced?
@lonmurphy4698
@lonmurphy4698 Жыл бұрын
What effect do you foresee this having on lending? I presume the banks will just hold until maturity and will end up fine. But they will be left in a more precarious position and with less capital available. Do you think this could have impacts on liquidity and the ability to raise capital in the wider economy?
@blue-pi2kt
@blue-pi2kt Жыл бұрын
US money markets are tremendously deep. There isn't ever an interest rate too high to suppress lending, however as interest rates rise, there are fewer clients who can reasonably afford the cost of those rates. The SEC will respond and increase the regulatory intensity on regional banks and other sizable deposit-taking banks. The Evergrande style of levered growth where the ability to pay large loans meant you could get more loans is over. That said, if a business has healthy free cash flows and can demonstrate a reasonable expectation that costs will be manageable for the life of the loan, it's unlikely to have much impact on that business' access to credit at all. A lot of businesses will straight up be denied refinancing and will enter bankruptcy but that's how the cookie crumbles. Hopefully a lot see the writing on the wall and can act in time to deleverage before refinancing and economic headwinds bring the whole operation undone.
@psychickumquat
@psychickumquat Жыл бұрын
Educated guess: Lending is probably down right now with higher interest rates, so that would reduce pressure on banks and alleviate the risk of having too little capital to lend out. If rates were to drop, those bonds would likely rise in value and provide greater available capital if lending demand were to increase.
@e.sanoop110
@e.sanoop110 Жыл бұрын
Investors and other stakeholders of these banks just need to figure out what are the probabilities of these unrealised losses turning back into profits and the capacity of these banks to operate even if they have to book those losses.
@mfundoceleh8386
@mfundoceleh8386 Жыл бұрын
Mr Bagel please do a video on the gold mafia from the aljazeera documentary
@antoined-g682
@antoined-g682 Жыл бұрын
Can you do one on the canadian banks?
@wildspeaker007
@wildspeaker007 Жыл бұрын
Isn't another issue of being stuck in 2% yielding 10 year maturities the fact that savings accounts need to offer more than 2% at this point in time, paying out more than they receive for the 10 year bonds? Even if they don't have to sell the held to maturity bonds, this seems like a serious issue to me, since they are would be locking in losses for the next 10 years, unless they don't take on savings. Am I missing anything here? Is there any way to mitigate this issue for banks?
@johnfoster9582
@johnfoster9582 Жыл бұрын
Savings accounts don’t need to offer more than 2% at this time. We know this because none of the firms above are providing that kind of return and they are not seeing massive amounts of deposits leave pursue yield. Until that is the case, they will ride out as long as they can without realizing those losses. A surprising amount of capital is stagnant in poor yield savings accounts no reason.
@centralintelligenceagency9082
@centralintelligenceagency9082 Жыл бұрын
@@johnfoster9582 Well savings accounts for these banks are well below 2% so they are good there. CDs and things of that sort would be over but imagine they still make a good money off other products like credit cards, mortgages and loans at 5-6%+
@Amir-jn5mo
@Amir-jn5mo Жыл бұрын
I'm curious to know your take on TD bank with the recent news regarding how its the biggest bank being shorted in the US economy. I didn't know how big they are in the US.
@cl2829
@cl2829 Жыл бұрын
Hi! thanks for the explainer. What makes that JPM expects a loss by rising interest rates even tho that would generally be a positive thing for banks?
@SK-kc1sy
@SK-kc1sy Жыл бұрын
Weeks since major bank collapse: 0
@smilemeXxz
@smilemeXxz Жыл бұрын
Dude, I love this video BUT I need a second video explaining in details what all those things mean.
@natjimoEU
@natjimoEU Жыл бұрын
I like this type of videos! Mooooooooooooore
@theviceinvirtue
@theviceinvirtue Жыл бұрын
Please do a video on Canadian banks 🇨🇦🙏🏼
@jonosimpson3379
@jonosimpson3379 Жыл бұрын
What I don't get is how you can have govvies booked as HTM, but then they still feed HQLA? Seems contradictory if you would adamantly avoid selling the bonds at steep discounts were rates to rise? And then chuck the BTFP on top of that for HTMs, surely you can't still classify those as HQLA?
@00000a0009
@00000a0009 Жыл бұрын
Fresh bagels!
@philippebouchard-bourdeau5100
@philippebouchard-bourdeau5100 Жыл бұрын
😂
@tomlxyz
@tomlxyz Жыл бұрын
Isn't it always just one?
@samsonsoturian6013
@samsonsoturian6013 Жыл бұрын
Let's eat, Richard. Saved by a comma...
@mikemorrison3913
@mikemorrison3913 Жыл бұрын
Epic to see a Canadian finance expert blow up on KZfaq
@zvxcvxcz
@zvxcvxcz Жыл бұрын
Maybe you could do a video on the differences between money market fund and money market accounts (the later being FDIC insured and at a bank rather than a broker, etc...) A lot of the WSB folk seem to think everything is of the 'fund' class while returns aren't much (if any) lower for the the insured accounts. They also seem to be under the impression that you cannot easily get money out of a money market account, but you can, the money market account rules are very similar to those for savings accounts (only 6 transactions a month, but of any size via free ACH transfer is pretty liquid, though banks don't even need to enforce that limitation any longer with the schedule D changes).
@xensan76
@xensan76 Жыл бұрын
What does this mean for small-to-medium size banks or credit unions? Should they be avoided?
@thomascarter8817
@thomascarter8817 Жыл бұрын
What books do you recommend to start trading?
@bigmax1559
@bigmax1559 Жыл бұрын
-Controlled Trading -Trading in the Zone
@samsonsoturian6013
@samsonsoturian6013 Жыл бұрын
You don't. Put your savings in an index fund
@OneNvrKnoz
@OneNvrKnoz Жыл бұрын
Hey, I just saw a TikTok about IUL investing/insurance. Can you please do a video about what it is and if it’s any good?
@cyclingchantal
@cyclingchantal Жыл бұрын
If you compare those numbers with Canadian and European banks, are there big differences or are those comparable?
@nonthoughtslinky
@nonthoughtslinky Жыл бұрын
"Yes, that UBS" 😂
@ReimuandCirno
@ReimuandCirno Жыл бұрын
I think the small/regional banks are going to be in trouble. Problems with liquidity plus exposure to CRE. I think there is a plausible bail-in risk with them.
@Alex-eg6sq
@Alex-eg6sq Жыл бұрын
“3 weeks without a bank collapse” epic 😂😂😂
@theonewhopwns1
@theonewhopwns1 Жыл бұрын
What do you think about the TD bank situation? Everyone is writing articles on it being the most shorted bank and even my parents are talking about it. Was just wondering if this panic is justified or just another situation of people click baiting titles for views.
@rajacharya6137
@rajacharya6137 Жыл бұрын
Would you share the excel document?
@tr8thin
@tr8thin 6 ай бұрын
Good Video! Appreciate it, but I have a question: IF and lets say IF the majority of the people withdraw their money from their bank account, and the banks just have 10-12% available capital for this, they will go bust, won't they? Greetings :)
@dacjames
@dacjames Жыл бұрын
The gap though, which JP Morgan’s CEO recently highlighted, is that treasuries carry a non-zero risk. These measures do not take into account interest rate risk and that needs to be addressed.
@Baller7797
@Baller7797 Жыл бұрын
They do though…the derivatives (like interest rate swaps) are used to hedge rate movements. If you have more deposits (liabilities for a bank) on balance sheet than loans, and would be negatively impacted by a rise in rates, you can purchase a rate swap where you pay a fixed rate and receive a floating rate. Depending on notional amounts, if rates rise your interest obligations are protected…that’s a hedge. These banks manage floating rate risk with derivatives as much as they earn spreads on treasuries and fed funds to bolster capital ratios. The big four have been around in one form or another for over 1000 years combined, I think they understand basic interest rate management.
@dacjames
@dacjames Жыл бұрын
@@Baller7797 The banks manage interest rate risk, yes. But the Fed stress test does not consider interest rate risk to treasuries. To quote Jamie Dimon, CEO of one of the big four. "Even worse, the stress testing based on the scenario devised by the Federal Reserve Board (the Fed) never incorporated interest rates at higher levels." The problem isn't interest rate risk, it's interest rates combined with large outflows. The fed's test did not account for that, an oversight I'm sure is being reviewed as we speak.
@faisalabozaid9593
@faisalabozaid9593 Жыл бұрын
Quick question, where are these in the Financal statements?
@JUSSTTIINFU3K
@JUSSTTIINFU3K Жыл бұрын
You’re too honest. Made me sad😢
@simonhub7217
@simonhub7217 Жыл бұрын
Where did you get this data from? I have a presentation to make for my class about the current banking crisis and need a source of reference. Thanks!
@ThePlainBagel
@ThePlainBagel Жыл бұрын
Most of it came from the companies' 10K filings or their Basel III disclosures, both of which can be found on the EDGAR website or pulled from each company's respective Investor Relations page
@sigor2011
@sigor2011 Жыл бұрын
TD. Since you are Canadian, can you make one on TD quick?
@wisperingiron3646
@wisperingiron3646 Жыл бұрын
Hank. Do you have a point with any of your LinkedIn posts?
@MrSongbird
@MrSongbird Жыл бұрын
So is LCR ratio the Liquidity Coverage Ratio Ratio?
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