Winning Daily Bar Strategy tested on 30 Minute bars with 2:1 Reward to Risk Ratio

Рет қаралды 6,471

Күн бұрын

In this video I test out an already profitable daily bar strategy but apply it to the 30 minute charts. It uses a simple 1 bar setup and a 2:1 reward to risk ratio profit target.
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DISCLAIMER:
I am not a financial advisor and I am not offering you financial advice. I am not regulated in any way. The purpose of the content I provide is for educational purposes only.
Any information you receive is based on my own knowledge and experience in the financial markets and how you act on the information provided is your own responsibility.
I cannot be held responsible for any losses you may incur as a result of ideas taken from my content provided.

Пікірлер: 26

@Dx_Ach Жыл бұрын

Id love to see more scalping or intraday type strategies tested.

@dklox 9 ай бұрын

Great lesson, thanks. Do you ever use monte Carlo, random data, etc, in your testing? Any conditions you set to determine a strategy is robust enough?

@timthorne3412 Жыл бұрын

Very interesting...another great video from Jarrod !!

@vinayrajpillai9808 Жыл бұрын

What's the timezone being used when you filter the trades?? Sorry if I overlooked this in the video.

@robertfrank3044 Жыл бұрын

it answered my question thanks

@dhruv_h Жыл бұрын

Jarrod could you conduct tests on the pairs that had really bad equity curves? The variation should be sell when a smash setup forms, can we see a positive equity curve?

@giuliano2394 Жыл бұрын

But is possible have a file of strategy that you present in the video on youtube?

@rstgbd2835 Жыл бұрын

Would be great if you can show more of the code of the examples and strategies you describe.

@Boozer72 Жыл бұрын

Do you planning on having any discount on your trading course on Black Friday?

@janalgos Жыл бұрын

how do you hold conviction in the system if it's performance very so wildly from one chart to another? in other words how do you know that it's not just overfitting if the strategy doesn't seem to be robust in the sense that it doesn't work across several different charts without having to change the parameters?

@gomesdiogo Жыл бұрын

you backtest and decide if it is good or not after 50~100 trades

@theeasyjoes Жыл бұрын

Where I can get this kind of ea?

@seniorspam2453 Жыл бұрын

If a strategy works on one pair and not on another, how do you know its not simply a matter of luck/curve fitting to past price data, and not a real edge going forward?

@petersmith730 Жыл бұрын

He would obviously live test it for several months before trading it to validate the almost 13 years of historical data. And where's the line between optimization/curve fitting? His adjustments seem very reasonable and not excessive at all. There's always a subjective aspect to it and you must go with what makes you comfortable.

@seniorspam2453 Жыл бұрын

@@petersmith730 I'm not talking about curve fitting through over-optimization, even a simple strategy, by mere chance can happen to "fit" the price data of some asset for some time period. So unless you have good reasons to think to think that asset will behave almost identically going forward, the back test may not be statistically significant. Especially when you look at the small profit factors in some of these back tests.

@petersmith730 Жыл бұрын

@@seniorspam2453 If you watch other videos on this channel you would know he also tests on out of sample data as well as lengthy demo trading before going live. Many of his strategies never make it all the way for this reason. Pretty standard approach. The point of this video is not to show whether this particular strategy is worth trading but whether a seemingly profitable strategy is worth trading once you factor in broker costs.

@yandychang3631 Жыл бұрын

@@seniorspam2453 You can compare your strategy to a randomly generated signal. Check if the difference in performance falls outside the distribution of what you would expect for the randomly generated signal; that's how you can compare. But even if it is significantly different from random signal generation, it does not guarantee it will continue to perform the same. This is because any strategy you can develop is exposed to regime change risk. When the market environment changes, it will change the performance of your system. Two simple examples are during the covid pandemic in 2020 and recently during the rising interest rates, market dynamics changed.

@JohnSmith-pd4mf Жыл бұрын

Thanks, this is one of the more useful trading videos out there! We were all licking our lips at those sexy curves until the reality of costs hit home. A great lesson.

@tullochgorum6323 Жыл бұрын

Very wary of a strategy that is a big loser on most pairs, but which happens to work on a random handful. This looks perilously like curve-fitting? On the other hand, allowing 4 pips of costs for trades of this size seems excessively conservative. We are intra-day traders and our cost on the most liquid pairs like Euro and Cable is under a quarter of this. We make very nice and steady profits on charts as fast as 1 minute. Trading on faster charts allows you to turn your capital more quickly and greatly enhances potential profit.

@seniorspam2453 Жыл бұрын

Yea I find these trading costs excessively overestimated, at least for brokers here in the US, maybe in his native Australia they’re closer to that.

@tullochgorum6323 Жыл бұрын

@@seniorspam2453 Our broker is Australian (IC Markets on the Spotware platform). For currencies, fees are 0.54 pips with IB cashback, and the spread for most of the more liquid pairs averages between 0.2 and 0.4 pips. Slippage for a few lots is negligible, and we don't see rejections, at least at our relatively modest scale. To our surprise, we find we can trade Euro and Cable with as low as a 3 pip SL without getting spiked out. So yes, 4 pips seems excessive. They also offer the choice of a top-tier regulated account with normal leverage or an offshore account that is still relatively trustworthy with high leverage. No major service issues either. To date, we're happy customers, especially compared to our last Swiss broker.

@petersmith730 Жыл бұрын

How could it be "excessively conservative" if you think he's overstating the cost? He's using the high end of the cost scale since viewers use a variety of brokers. If he assumes the low end of the scale then someone could get hurt trading this. He's making a valid point that a seemingly profitable strategy could burn you on costs alone.

@tullochgorum6323 Жыл бұрын

@@petersmith730 Well, his general position is that intra-day trading isn't profitable because of the costs. We find it very profitable, because we chose a low-cost broker. There are many quality brokers that offer similar costs - so to imply that intra-day trading is to be avoided on the basis that trades cost 4 pips is misleading. Better to educate traders by explaining the real-life options. It would be more realistic to test with the actual costs that can be achieved at a broker like IC Markets and warn people not to try it if they are using a high cost broker.

@eagleboy42 Жыл бұрын

Why do you make me watch a video for 14 minutes before telling me there are no costs included? I have noticed you do sometimes include them and sometimes don't!. Could you please only show us videos of profitable strategies with all costs included ie slippage, spreads, commissions and fees or at least an average as I know all brokers are different?

@mikipope5140 3 ай бұрын

Totally agree