Think more rationally with Bayes’ rule

Think more rationally with Bayes’ rule | Steven Pinker

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Күн бұрын

The formula for rational thinking explained by Harvard professor Steven Pinker.
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In his explanation of Bayes' theorem, cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker highlights how this type of reasoning can help us determine the degree of belief we assign to a claim based on available evidence.
Bayes' theorem takes into account the prior probability of a claim, the likelihood of the evidence given the claim is true, and the commonness of the evidence regardless of the claim's truth.
While Bayes' theorem can be useful for making statistical predictions, Pinker cautions that it may not always be appropriate in situations where fairness and other moral considerations are important. Therefore, it's crucial to consider when Bayes' theorem is applicable and when it's not.
0:00 What is Bayesian thinking?
1:01 The formula
2:41 When Bayes’ theorem obscures the solution
4:25 Bayes’ theorem in a nutshell
Read the video transcript ► bigthink.com/series/explain-i...
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About Steven Pinker:
Steven Pinker is an experimental psychologist who conducts research in visual cognition, psycholinguistics, and social relations. He grew up in Montreal and earned his BA from McGill and his PhD from Harvard. Currently Johnstone Professor of Psychology at Harvard, he has also taught at Stanford and MIT. He has won numerous prizes for his research, his teaching, and his nine books, including The Language Instinct, How the Mind Works, The Blank Slate, The Better Angels of Our Nature, The Sense of Style, and Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress.
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Bayesian search: A simple rule to find stuff you’ve lost
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Hasty generalization: how to escape your biases and be more rational
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System 1 vs. System 2 thinking: Why it isn’t strategic to always be rational
► bigthink.com/the-well/system-...
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Пікірлер: 446

@bigthink Жыл бұрын

What's an example of you can apply Bayes' Theorem?

@jameshicks7125 Жыл бұрын

The resurrection of Jesus Christ and the entire reliability of the Gospels, completely falls apart under Bayesian analysis.

@rainking50 Жыл бұрын

@@jameshicks7125 I'm not sure I follow. Can you break it down for me? Thank you.

@mcgruffmo Жыл бұрын

@@rainking50 likelihood = min, commonality of occurence = 0.

@mariakern6793 Жыл бұрын

It is very interesting, and I am not sure how much it is Bayes' influence, that people don't even try but I think, a big part it is, for example when comparing rates of women in professor position in Universities in different countries, for example professors for Mathematics etc. so low in West-Europe and much higher in China or Russia or some East-Europe countries . I do not think that nowadays sexism in West-Europe can be spread in Unis at that mass, so apparently it is still Bayes' phenomenon 😅

@andresunknow8917 Жыл бұрын

Por qué no pusieron un ejemplo dentro del video?

@duncanweller1 Жыл бұрын

I'm an artist and I love this science/math/statistics stuff. I know too many artists who go by their feelings and never seem to look beyond themselves or established beliefs. And you get to interpret their work any way you like. The best novelists were the ones who actually did research and had their minds blown enough to want to write about their experiences. Bayes' rule applies to us artists just as much as it does to scientists. If we artists applied more scientific thought and processes to our art we would only created better work for everyone.

@Alexbaddy Жыл бұрын

The scientist makes sense of the past, the artist is living and speaking to people in the future. Working together can be very productive in the present due to the way scientists become experts in their fields, and artists formulate ideas by linking expert thought. I think communication is part of the issue. Verbosity can be an enemy of the present It's why I prefer having intellectual discussion with children

@briseboy 11 ай бұрын

In spite of what you will read in ridiculous replies, Bayesian analysis, IS constantly used, not only in scientific evaluation, but also in art and creativity: You CONSTANTLY update your views, vision, analyses. THIS is Bayseain analysis, and HOPEFULLY it occurs constantly in artistic, physical, musical, and ANYthing one does in life. Brains are Predictive organs, LONG evolved to use memory and EVERY novel sensory experience. This includes your internal sensing of your own response, through the physical arousal, the temperature, the subtle hungers your system reports. This includes your relative energy, exhaustion, and all other interoceptive sensations. Of course, THAT means that you CAN Misinterpret, as Pinker implies, things that are less or not associated, which you then correct through continuing Bayesian interpretation of what occurs in all systems - and everything is involved in systems - though, as you see from"Alexbaddy" some systems, including "realizations" can be and ARE illusory. We see evidence that we are prepared to see, and lacunae, lacks, gaps, exist, arise, diminish, grow, disappear, in our lacunae, depending upon whether we are sufficiently critical of OUR OWN conclusions.

@musicproduction1330 Жыл бұрын

My wife heard the “horse vs. zebra” saying many times in the more than two decades it took before she was properly diagnosed. After seeing over 200 doctors, someone finally figured out that she was a zebra. Since then, she’s received proper care; but it was such a hard path to get there. I wish that more people had considered that zebras do exist.

@williampope3503 Жыл бұрын

Yeah it's a real problem, unfortunately tilted towards saving time and money on average rather than reaching the best outcome in each case.

@ButterflyMatt Жыл бұрын

Since she obviously visited experts I’m mostly surprised they didn’t notice the stripes.

@SHANONisRegenerate Жыл бұрын

Come on man marrying a Zebra is weird asf

@carpballet Жыл бұрын

@@ButterflyMatt They did. But they’d lose their jobs and be ostracized if they mentioned them.

@Calligraphybooster Жыл бұрын

Yeah. But the point is that nobody can live in a world where all the horses are treated as zebra’s. So although tough on your striped wife and you in this case, it’s best for the majority.

@RichLuciano1 Жыл бұрын

Dr. Sagan: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Dr. Suess: Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.

@albarodriguez9406 Жыл бұрын

Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation that fits the evidence is often the best.

@scalbaldyfruub7499 Жыл бұрын

@@albarodriguez9406 Correction: The main gist of Occam's Razor is the most likely explanation is the one that makes the fewest number of assumptions.

@rosiepone Жыл бұрын

@@scalbaldyfruub7499 this is true, sometimes complicated questions do have complicated answers, but so long as that complicated answer is based truly on things we KNOW and not just things we guess or assume, it's still the most likely answer

@scalbaldyfruub7499 Жыл бұрын

@@rosiepone Or put more simply, "Extraordinary claims, require extraordinary evidence." As long as the evidence is there, good to go.

@TenzoMonk Жыл бұрын

What in the ChatBot is this bullshit?!?!?

@bradleycooke5214 Жыл бұрын

I think the transcription machinery wrote "Bayes rate" when Pinker actually said, "base rate" - a crucial distinction

@wildetruth9225 Жыл бұрын

Every time!

@Flintknife Жыл бұрын

Please don't spoil these great pieces by putting the music all over everything. It really detracts. Talking and informing is enough.

@vogliounacocacola Жыл бұрын

The music is way too loud.

@ronkirk5099 Жыл бұрын

A couple months ago I read 'Enlightenment Now!' by Prof. Pinker. It set me straight about several of my perceived notions with actual facts. It made me much more hopeful about humanity's future.

@Chris-hw4mq Жыл бұрын

LMAO didnt you what happened durring the pandemic ? thats the true face of people

@Catlily5 Жыл бұрын

@@Chris-hw4mq Well, even so we got through it.

@gwen9939 Жыл бұрын

@@Chris-hw4mq Some did show their true face sure, but a huge percentage still isolated, wore masks, got vaccinated, and so on. And there are other places in the world than the US where things went a lot smoother.

@Ozymandi_as Жыл бұрын

@@Catlily5 of course we got through it, and nobody who did not get through it can tell us otherwise!

@gg3675 Жыл бұрын

I'm not saying you shouldn't be hopeful, but Pinker is widely accused of naked data manipulation by social scientists.

@tombic6373 Жыл бұрын

Steven, wouldn't this video be more effective if you had included an example or two? I hope you will do so in a follow-on video.

@georgehugh3455 Жыл бұрын

Prior experience would seem to indicate that; certainly the evidence in teaching shows this is true...I expect the probability to be pretty high

@SpaveFrostKing 6 ай бұрын

Probably not his fault - it was likely just edited this way.

@reginafefifofina Жыл бұрын

The challenge is most people on the planet are completely unaware of what is possible, so it is challenging to even identify the path to get there 4:28 That’s the equity. What do we need to study to move society as a whole along to some next higher level? Let’s learn that!

@generalpompeyo Жыл бұрын

One of Profesor Pinnker's best qualities is his clarity of speech.

@eddieking2976 Жыл бұрын

And his amazing hair 😎👍

@arturzathas499 Жыл бұрын

@@eddieking2976 he is like A better looking, more refined, and modern beer mug

@nevermorebouquet3681 Жыл бұрын

And his weird history with international pedophile kingpin Jeffery Epstein.

@VeganSemihCyprus33 Жыл бұрын

Think more rationally 👉The Connections (2021) [short documentary] 💖

@mareezy Жыл бұрын

Funny how you have a typo on the word speech 😅

@j.d.blitch5552 Жыл бұрын

This is a great series, I love it

@williampope3503 Жыл бұрын

The issue with this mode of thinking is it tends to ignore outliers, as they are less likely to occur. So if you apply it across the board - as is done in the medical profession, hearing hooves and saying "horses" not "zebras", as Pinker said, you're going to miss the outliers. We could reach better outcomes by both considering the most likely cause, while simultaneously ruling out the dangerous outliers that while unlikely are still possible.

@Bigjshifty08 Жыл бұрын

I agree. I believe that you could even give patients with anxiety and depression a great mental boost by assuring them they don't have some serious condition, if indeed they do not. But, from the perspective as an American here, much of our medical conduct these days here revolves more around money than helping people get diagnosed or assisted in going on with their lives normally and productively as they can. Once the conversation of your health goes to the money subject, the quality and thoroughness of your care has been sliced in half, at best. Sorry to go off on a tangent here but it is something that bothers me a lot. I think it also bothers some medical professionals, who seem almost guilty when they encounter somebody who cannot afford particular imaging or tests etc.

@junkjunk2493 Жыл бұрын

right , black swans walk on wall street winning the lottery will happen who wins is the outlier

@jamiedorsey4167 11 ай бұрын

At least my understanding of true Bayesian thinking would not only think what is most likely but leave open other possibilities rather than fixating on one.

@crypticnomad 10 ай бұрын

That isn't a problem with bayes but rather the general lack of ability to think probabilistically. It stems from a general lack of education in the subject. The way he described here is more complicated than it has to be and it wasn't super complicated. There is a way it could be framed where even most children over say like 12yo could understand it. Most people are not very granular with probabilities, meaning they have a concept of something like 100%, 50/50 and 0% but the fact is that the space is continuous between 0 and 1 and there is no known limit to the number of decimal places. Any cut off point we pick is arbitrary. Just as an example, if I said something had a probability of 30% and it happened, most people would be surprised and would probably tell me afterwards "you were wrong!"

@SpaveFrostKing 6 ай бұрын

That's not a problem with Bayesian thinking though. You can use Bayesian thinking to guide which hypotheses you should test, incorporating both their probability and the consequences of if they're true.

@Pepperoni-Tony Жыл бұрын

Please post more of these by Pinker. He's great!

@VeganSemihCyprus33 Жыл бұрын

Think more rationally 👉The Connections (2021) [short documentary] 💖

@elijahjamesperez8936 Жыл бұрын

My AB History major class teacher unknowingly taught us this, but in the context of scrutinizing a historical source

@deepplusthoughts Жыл бұрын

This channel is amazing! And the Bayes' rule is incredible as well!

@hwway4488 Жыл бұрын

Thank you for explaining that!

@VeganSemihCyprus33 Жыл бұрын

Think more rationally 👉The Connections (2021) [short documentary] 💖

@laurendoe168 Жыл бұрын

Great video. I have only one issue with it - what Steven Pinker said in the closing "If you could follow what I just said, you understand Bayes Theorem." While this is 100% true, viewers probably came to this video with this understanding.

@emilysmith2965 Жыл бұрын

Not necessarily - though it does seem that, because KZfaq follows content algorithms, most people who saw this video were already predisposed to thinking this way. Not as many people understand this principle as you might think, especially when they have a lifelong history of church indoctrination. To be clear, I don’t think religion is inherently bad. I think it’s generally taught too young, and it’s taught in a very all-or-nothing way, as well as an overly literalist way. Many Americans, if asked about the parable of loaves and fishes, would just say that literally happened and glean zero symbolic awareness from it - even though it’s a very clear symbol for the nature of generosity itself. We don’t expect for food to multiply and feed thousands, but some things do grow when you share them. Goodness, empathy, the faith itself, compassion for the poor and marginalized… there are many ways to interpret what’s actually going on in the story. But the least interesting one is also the one that indicates a high degree of literalism.

@laurendoe168 Жыл бұрын

@@emilysmith2965 Trust me, I am in any way suggesting that everyone (or even a majority of people) understands Bayes Theorem. What I am saying is that only those who do would watch this video. I would venture to say that 90% of people never even heard of it and wouldn't bother clicking on it. I TOOK Probability in college (got an A) and had forgotten this was the name of the theorem. In fact... you could use Bayes Theorem to calculate the probability that someone would watch the video. Sadly, this would come up quite low due to people's general tendency to avoid math altogether. But, of those who do watch, the probability that the person already understands the topic is quite high.

@CuriosityGuy Жыл бұрын

Occam's Razor is similar

@kirandeepchakraborty7921 Жыл бұрын

Who would have thought a class 12 maths formula holds so much meaning. As someone said.... Maths and Nature are the Same. 😊

@SecretEyeSpot Жыл бұрын

Or is it. The acuity of our perception of nature, and math's are often the same? See Gödels Incompleteness Theorem

@VeganSemihCyprus33 Жыл бұрын

Think more rationally 👉The Connections (2021) [short documentary] 💖

@justneoh8253 Жыл бұрын

An adage doctors learned even in Medical schools is "common things occur commonly". It is the most succint intuitive expression of taking into account prior prevalence/incidence in Bayesian rule.

@2bfrank657 Жыл бұрын

That's an interesting one. But it's also important to realize that rare events do happen sometimes. Earlier this year, my country saw a number of storms that were completely off the charts, completely unprecedented. A total WTF experience. It was incredible. You could almost say "there's a first time for everything" even if that's not quite true.

@emilysmith2965 Жыл бұрын

But even that can be Bayesian. Is it really just a “freak coincidence”? Or is global climate change also affecting the patterns of tropical storm seasons? It stops being a “rare occurrence” to have the hottest summer on record if it’s BEEN the hottest summer on record for five years in a row.

@HeinRichKocHPretoria Жыл бұрын

Convergence to the norm.

@dongrinuan Жыл бұрын

it simply means you should compare the odds of the evdience with or without the context of hypotheis

@dmtdreamz7706 Жыл бұрын

When I saw that movie, I felt like the boy in the story who travels to another world and then returns, only to find that it was all a dream, until he feels in his pocket and finds a handful of sand.

@devrim-oguz Жыл бұрын

Which movie is it?

@h1r1 Жыл бұрын

i wanna know what movie too!

@ForAnAngel Жыл бұрын

Is it The Neverending Story?

@jamontoast Жыл бұрын

Sounds a lot like Time Bandits. Great movie btw

@VeganSemihCyprus33 Жыл бұрын

Think more rationally 👉The Connections (2021) [short documentary] 💖

@sanjay2767 Жыл бұрын

Today is my maths exam and we have this formula in syllabus

@carlhammer9242 Жыл бұрын

The video's CC says "Bayes rate" several times when it should say "base rate".

@kentGrey Жыл бұрын

It's was not enough to "Think Big" by showing the equation for Bayes' Rule. You needed to 'show small' by walking through at least one real world example. As complicated as the world we live in is surely there was one "If a train leaves a station..." example you could have plugged in to the equation at 1:11 that would have given it real meaning to the layman.

@Moiez101 Жыл бұрын

I'm thinking about how Occam's Razor fits into or fits with Bayesian thinking especially when it comes to hypothesis testing and theory formation.

@Ozymandi_as Жыл бұрын

One big problem is our tendency to infer causation from correlation. 'If I had not got stuck in traffic, I would have been on that plane that crashed, killing all on board. Who would have looked after my elderly mother then? God must have sent that traffic-jam to save me, because He has a purpose for me. It's a miracle!". As if none of the people that died had families and obligations of their own, and therefore made sure to leave enough time to get to the airport and catch their flight. Which is the more likely explanation: God punished the people who were more conscientious me because He loves my mother more than anyone else's; or I just caught some luck by screwing up? Is life sometimes unfair, or am I special?

@Djellowman Жыл бұрын

Always +1 for Steve Pinker

@Djellowman Жыл бұрын

Just not in this case, as he's wrong about it sometimes being desirable to not look at the base rate, such as when looking at crime rate.

@TheGaryMantione Жыл бұрын

This is why I am not religious. I feel it makes extraordinary claims without extraordinary evidence. Likelihood of someone coming back from the dead and changing water into wine has a base rate of 0 for me in my experience, so it’s nearly impossible for me to believe in unless I see evidence equally incredible as that. I feel the same is true for many things nowadays… people hear the slightest things and begin making assumptions off of evidence that could just as well mean nothing at all in the context of the topic. Next thing you know it’s being repeated on the news and spreads like fire. I’m not saying I’m not open to believing in things, but I feel the evidence should be irrefutable. If everyone in the world understood the amount of work scientists have done to continuously question and improve their surroundings, maybe they wouldn’t be so quick to believe what they hear right away.

@ameermathkoor7113 Жыл бұрын

Sometimes the Humana's mind can't realize some evidence Because he doesn't have that's ability.

@frojojo5717 Жыл бұрын

@@ameermathkoor7113 It doesn’t have to, we have math and statistics for that.

@LuisFrontanilla Жыл бұрын

I think you're not religious because you don't lack the strength others do, I'm not religious either but I wonder, should I have not been as strong mentally, would I have been desperate enough to turn to religion? I think many are forced to turn to religion because of their environment and circumstances, the mentally healthier you are, the better your living conditions in the early growing phase of life the less likely you're to ignore inner strength and the more likely you're to seek strength elsewhere

@preciousvincent1329 Жыл бұрын

Religion is for the stronger people if we are being honest

@LuisFrontanilla Жыл бұрын

to me mental strength is proportional to brain health, I wonder if there's research regarding brain health comparing those of religious and non-religious people

@mchammer5592 Жыл бұрын

I'm a firm Christian, however I think it's important for everyone to understand when you're crossing from observable rationale to accepting something by faith. If you get that confused, you'll potentially end up ignorant or disappointed.

@briseboy 11 ай бұрын

Continue carefully updating your past presumptions.

@insankamil2909 5 ай бұрын

belief is human feature. not everything can stop us making a belief. why do we ever limitting our best feature? we keep experimenting on it

@zqxzqxzqx1 4 сағат бұрын

Faith is just a belief in something you have no evidence for (or you would provide the evidence.)

@danfromnorth52 Жыл бұрын

The best Big Think videos are those, I think, that show the presenter or speaker continuously. I find the added video clips very distracting.

@JakeRichardsong Жыл бұрын

Yes and ruin the presentation.

@TheGaryMantione Жыл бұрын

Well said

@danschoenharl3856 Жыл бұрын

Utilitarianism is also great in theory, as a formula for rationality may be, but what are the values and how do you quantify them? But, if applied, the "Golden Rule" makes its value apparent. "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets." "Give, and it will be given to you. A good measure, pressed down, shaken together and running over, will be poured into your lap. For with the measure you use, it will be measured to you.”

@sounbframe3602 Жыл бұрын

can someone explain me what he said?? please

@maidpretty Жыл бұрын

Well, if you live in East Africa, the probability of it being a zebra is quite high. And as we get closer to the frontier of current knowledge, the probability of that something not even being an equine gets higher and higher while we still expect it to be some sort of a horse practicing our habitual Bayesian thinking.

@TheCelticsAREboss Жыл бұрын

You completely missed the point. If you're living in a place where zebras frequently roam, then the Bayesian prediction would be to assume it's a zebra and not a horse

@maidpretty Жыл бұрын

@@TheCelticsAREboss Well, maybe I should've chosen another metaphor, but my point was that most of us live in a place with no zebras, but make general Bayesian assumptions about horses. And this rationale works just fine in normal conditions for most people, but fails for those who get closer to terra incognita of zebra-space where science gets really weird and commons sense is trying to fly out of the window.

@2bfrank657 Жыл бұрын

@@TheCelticsAREboss I think he exactly got the point, and showed that hoof-sound example was flawed, or at least not fully explained.

@TheCelticsAREboss Жыл бұрын

@@2bfrank657 It's not flawed if you live anywhere where zebras don't exist, which includes the vast majority of humans on Earth. OP was just quibbling about nonsense. I already explained how Bayesian's rule is applicable to an environment where zebra's frequent. And there is nothing really to explain, at least not the audience that is going to be watching this video, i.e., people living in urbanization or the developed world.

@VeganSemihCyprus33 Жыл бұрын

Think more rationally 👉The Connections (2021) [short documentary] 💖

@bindukhadka 5 ай бұрын

Thank you ✨

@joeygalanti1097 Жыл бұрын

How do you side switch without gaslighting yourself into believing you're wrong? Or is that part of it?

@DoNotPushHere Жыл бұрын

Describing what in effect is called "common sense" into a formula might be great, but, as he says around 3:15, you'd better know the limits of common sense, or you'd end up closing your eyes to the first scientific approach of simply Observing and Perceiving. Overall I think this is a dangerous formula because there is not a side formula that calculates the limits of application of the Bayes formula.

@carpballet Жыл бұрын

Sometimes the truth is hard to hear. So much so that we make it criminal to speak it.

@gemmalouiserowledge545 Жыл бұрын

0:01 who are the people in the stars ? Right side

@jkraich5317 Жыл бұрын

A great book to read about this topic is "The Scout Mindset" by Julia Galef

@VeganSemihCyprus33 Жыл бұрын

Think more rationally 👉The Connections (2021) [short documentary] 💖

@oceanbreeze3172 Жыл бұрын

0:06 "Science popularizer" would be a good title for Kurzgesagt

@briankeegan8089 Жыл бұрын

IMO, this badly needs a few concrete examples in conjunction with that formula.

@doughuffman5790 Жыл бұрын

Next time remember to mention E. T. Jaynes’ Max Ent - maximize entropy of the naive subjective prior. It will tank many iterations to wriggle out of the entropic corner of a lie.

@tlightsylvan Жыл бұрын

i am here but did he just say women don't like being mechanical engingeers? given all the same opportunities, socially & economically, mechanical engineering is predisposed to attracting more men than women?

@sai_69 Жыл бұрын

Big fan of pinker.

@LodeStarYT Жыл бұрын

Wow!! Just realised that this is in CBSE's class 12th Maths book. But they never managed to explain it this well...

@kruthaswara Жыл бұрын

Very informative

@quakers200 Жыл бұрын

This is a side issue but one that is still Relevant. How much evidence is enough? How do you know that the next piece of the puzzle will not be more significant than the evidence so far. This gets even more of a problem when you are searching in your own memory or you ask a question like have I forgotten to consider some good evidence or argument that I just did not consider. When is enough enough!

@gatopardoantico5657 Жыл бұрын

It goes the other way round actually; if there is a lot of sexism in engineering [or surgeons etc] programs then the Bayes rate of women who want to be engineers will be pretty low.

@2bfrank657 Жыл бұрын

prob. sexism given few women in eng. = (prob. few women in eng. given sexism X prob. sexism) / prob. few women in eng. In my experience, sexism is pretty likely to keep women out of an industry if it is present. IMO, there is a fair bit of sexism still around. prob. there are few women in eng. is pretty much 1, at least for most fields of engineering. What gets tricky is defining what level of sexism we talking about, and also, how little is "few"?

@moonlight-cj2cv 11 ай бұрын

Posterior probability: 사후 확률, 경험적 확률 Credence: 신빙성 How much credence u had before u look at the evidence

@APOORVA470 Жыл бұрын

my teachers and poverty dissuded me to scince graduate so i gradate in commerce

@eddiemunster8634 Жыл бұрын

Does Bayes theorem predate Occam's razor?

@Xudoyberdi_Ismoilov_777 10 ай бұрын

Amazing video

@abhimanyukarnawat7441 Жыл бұрын

Bayes theorem assumes IID variables (independent and identically disturbution), doest work when you're dealing with Moriarty Dr Holmes.

@scottwinter-sb6lp Жыл бұрын

I definitely see a lot of the evidence

@azmeecruz1080 Жыл бұрын

Love Steven Pinker

@commonpike Жыл бұрын

I would write the equation like "post = prior x ( likely / evidence )", which hardly needs an explanation like that.

@hambatuhan3165 Жыл бұрын

I'm waiting the simple explanation of teh next theory, the one that evolved from this; free energy principal by Karl Frinston

@Larry00000 Жыл бұрын

Deal with your Bayes answer as a probability, not as a yes or no.

@DanielL143 Жыл бұрын

What a convoluted explanation. This guy is a professor?

@Hammadjay Жыл бұрын

Same reasoning can justify confirmation bias (prior "belief" supported by cherry-picking "evidence"). Pinker does suggest this is an issue.

@waedjradi Жыл бұрын

The idea of Bayesian rationality takes me back years ago to Julia Galef.

@mermich 9 ай бұрын

Hi can anyone explain to me the part of about "10% female mechanical engineers". To conclude whether there is sexism or not, we need to see "how many females wanted to be mechanical engineers in the first place". Why is it so and how to apply Bayesian theorem? Your help is much appreciated!

@jkscout Жыл бұрын

The forward slashes used in this video are misleading. :)

@reumur Жыл бұрын

2:40 Light and L: *Bayesian strategizing activated*

@Brian-os9qj Жыл бұрын

Thx Mr Pinker

@Dyrin Жыл бұрын

Crazy to think we thought about everything we’re doing rn lol

@commonpike Жыл бұрын

1:43 so, the less evidence there is, the more probable it gets. Makes perfect sense.

@kenknight5387 Жыл бұрын

I’m struggling with the concept of a “forbidden” Bayes rate.

@SeanBlum Жыл бұрын

The closed captions made a mistake there: Prof. Pinker was saying "base rate", not "Bayes rate". It's an important concept, but not at all confined to Bayesian probability. In his example of sexism in engineering programs, one critical base rate is the rate at which men and women inherently wish to become engineers. It is "forbidden" in some circles to suggest that this base rate is lower for women than men. This assumption naturally has a huge impact on the conditional probability that there is sexism in engineering programs, given the discrepancies between the genders.

@nerd26373 Жыл бұрын

Thank you for giving us informative content. God bless you.

@5hydroxyT Жыл бұрын

and so we have the greatest reason for misunderstanding science...there is no ‘cause and effect’ in the natural world, only probabilities

@midnightgaming.9162 Жыл бұрын

So Bayes Therum comes off as more of a first approach but as part of a tool set. So basically its a balance of data history first, then real world data. Bayes = Prior Data + Current Data + Wisdom

@jairofonseca1597 Жыл бұрын

Intuition and common sense does the trick.

@aboubac_r Жыл бұрын

Basically don't rule put anything but consider the most like thing first

@hottiesoe87 Жыл бұрын

Thrilled about the video but lol the formula notation is a little messed up. It should read as expected value of A given B = ... This reads as probability (or expected value) of A divided by B.

@zzvyb6 Жыл бұрын

WOW ! I got it. The expectation value can be predetermined before you are handed evidence to the contrary !

@zzvyb6 Жыл бұрын

I believe this boils down to "Feelings" vs. "Data" and whether they can be blended.

@TD05SSLegacy Жыл бұрын

😂

@CosmoWenman Жыл бұрын

Still never hear a single person add any clarity to an issue or question by applying or talking about Bayesian stuff, including Bayesian stuff.

@Pengalen Жыл бұрын

1) it is not clear how all of the mentioned items are quantified. 2) I think Steven Pinker is probably the only remaining credible public intellectual.

@meinfiles Жыл бұрын

Good content but the force feed background music is annoying especially when you listen as podcast

@michaelotto8696 Жыл бұрын

Nutritional claims. Like apple cider vinegar cures everything from hangnails to cancer for example. Josie Wales would ask, "How is it on stains?"

@eyepie Жыл бұрын

me trying to figure out if my crush likes me back or not:

@gebrehiwotewnetu358 Жыл бұрын

Anyone ever debate Pinker? I don't like his eloquent delivery of intentional misrepresentations and it would be nice to see a take down somewhere.

@ghostmanscores1666 Жыл бұрын

Why Scott Adams hit the mark.

@jamesgorman7846 Жыл бұрын

Well, there's the hole : I can choose to use Bayes or not. Its a discretionary method .( I better not use the same discretion with gravity,especially if I am a mental health worker and I am confronted with a patient standing on the ledge outside my office window ,10 stories up) With Pinker ,we should be even more discretionary then he advises with Bayes: he's not worth the attention.

@jefflerner7526 Жыл бұрын

Distracting and unnecessary music. Captions show "Bayes rate" several times instead of "base rate".

@LesBell Жыл бұрын

Annoying that the equation shown at 1:08 is typeset incorrectly. The left-hand side shouldn't be P(A/B), i.e. "probability of (A divided by B)", but P(A|B), i.e. "probability of A conditioned on B". Because A and B are meaningless to the reader, it would even better be stated as P(H|E), i.e. "probability of the hypothesis conditioned on the evidence", or "probability the hypothesis is true, given that we have observed the new evidence". The same applies to the P(B/A) on the right side. Again, it should be P(B|A) or, better still, P(E|H). Otherwise, not a bad exposition, although the digression into the base rate fallacy was a distraction and probably best dealt with separately.

@APOORVA470 Жыл бұрын

such a clever breed you all are

@diptyprakashswain1121 Жыл бұрын

Interesting ☺️.

@APOORVA470 Жыл бұрын

sysetematic bakchodi around my life since childhood

@manosprotonotarios5187 8 ай бұрын

I do not get where applying Bayes is problematic. The examples show that applying Bayes is more fair. I do not get how fairness would be in contrast to Bayes inference, as mentioned. Bayes thinking is absolutely correct, wrong application of it is the problem, where people do not wish to consider less probable cases in tasks where it is their responsibility to examine all possible cases.

@roaringlion9111 Жыл бұрын

Dude Thats in My Maths Class (Probability)

@TriAngles3D Жыл бұрын

Can someone explain to me what they believe the differences would be between "Explain it Like I am Smart" and "Explain it Like I am Stupid"?

@dianaf2077 Жыл бұрын

Sure. Explain it to me like I’m stupid it shorthand for I know nothing about this particular topic but I would like to know, so start off with the basics. Explain it to me like I’m smart is shorthand for I know a great deal about this particular topic and I have one question I would like to ask you but there is no need to start from first principles. For example, if it is the first time I’m playing WOW I would ask you to explain it like I’m stupid. If I’m a neurosurgeon consulting another neurosurgeon about a patient I would say explain it to me like I’m smart. ‘Stupid’ and ‘smart’ are not being used in a judgmental or pejorative way, they’re being used as shorthand to let the explainer know your level of knowledge.

@TriAngles3D Жыл бұрын

@@dianaf2077 Clear. Most appreciate your response and explanation. I was not exactly sure about the context.

@mpv9866 Жыл бұрын

Ha. And I always thought/heard it was/as "base theorem"

@crypticnomad 10 ай бұрын

Basically Bayes takes the base rates into consideration and failing to do so is a logical fallacy called "base rate fallacy". Even if it is a fallacy there are times where those are useful. We evolved these cognitive biases for a reason. Wisdom requires understanding the limits of one's knowledge and that implies understanding that there is a difference between wisdom and knowledge. Generally speaking a key component in wisdom is context specific. Generally speaking it is irrational to not consider base rates but there are times where depending on the axioms, or the basic assumptions, that it is actually perfectly rational to ignore the base rates or to weight them. The reason is that we can't assume we have perfect information about base rates. As an example in the book "The Bell Curve" there is a controversial chapter which got the author labeled as a racist and while I guess that is a point of view a person could take, I personally looked at it as being something close to empirical proof that there was a systemic bias in terms of education resources available to certain minority groups for decades(several entire generations of people). If we were to look at that same data and first separate by economic status and then other metrics like race, nationality, or whatever, we would see that scores fall back in line like we would expect with a normal distribution. What that means in practical terms is that the majority of people, regardless of sex, race, or whatever, as an example, fall somewhere in the range of slightly below average intelligence to slightly above average intelligence. Things like races, sex, etc are independent of intelligence. What has a far larger impact and will actually move base rates around is economic status. Rich people get better education, on average, than poor people. Even though rich people are no more likely to be intelligent than a poor person they are more likely to be more educated and therefore score higher on just about all academic measures on average.

@simonsaphire Жыл бұрын

Loving the cowboy boots too !

@pascal784 Жыл бұрын

i think he says "base rate", not "bayes rate", subtitles are wrong

@kajesimpson126 Жыл бұрын

I think I can be pretty clever, and I did not understand what you said

@johnnychinstrap Жыл бұрын

I like your women in engineering analysis. The data indicates that women have a high probability of being people oriented and therefor less likely to be object oriented while males have a higher probability of being object oriented. We welcome women in engineering and when i had a few women in my class they were easier to manage, but women are less likely to WANT to be engineers.

@dianaf2077 Жыл бұрын

Why are we easier to manage? Is it that we are focused on getting the job done rather than wasting time proving who has the biggest dick? Anyway, as a woman I wanted to get a well paid job so I became a chemical engineer. It’s an interesting and rewarding profession, but the money is the primary motivator. Do men want to become engineers for some other reason? I can’t imagine what it could be.

@johnnychinstrap Жыл бұрын

@@dianaf2077 The data indicates that men are more object oriented, so they tend to go into STEM jobs versus people oriented jobs. And for clarification over the span of 4 decades I do not recall any of my engineers attempting to prove genitalia size as they had there hands full with D.E.'s. And I am not aware of any male that would say females are easier to manage, as I was referring to the class management in general.

@dianaf2077 Жыл бұрын

Umm…check what you wrote in your first post. You wrote “…when I had a few women in my class they were easier to manage.” And I wouldn’t mind if you gave a link to the source of this data that you are quoting.

@johnnychinstrap Жыл бұрын

@@dianaf2077 it is an incomplete sentence when you try to misconstrue it like you did. And to erase any ambiguity about my view, I preferred teaching when females where in the class. And if you are looking for a fight the data is from Dr. Jordan Peterson's research, so go fight with him if you are looking for some drama.

@Ozymandi_as Жыл бұрын

@@johnnychinstrap as an engineer, you will appreciate the important of precision in determining whether a structure a structured entity behaves as we intend it to; and from that point of view, I would suggest that your sentence is not fit for purpose, as it is not clear whether the pronoun 'they' refers to 'women', which was the subject of the preceding clause, or 'the class', as you intended. It certainly caused me to do a double-take. Whilst I would agree that men and women have somewhat different cognitive aptitudes, they are not binary. We all have to deal with objects and we all have to deal with people, and aptitudes are a question of degree. Women are somewhat more agreeable than men, and men are somewhat inclined to obsess about the size of our equipment, but people confound these expectations all the time. However, humans, engineers and scientists included, have a tendency to make rules out of expectations, and science is littered with shameful examples of women whose interest in science was discouraged, whose abilities were not nurtured, and achievements not recognised, by the men in charge of the institutions to which they sought admittance. Rosalind Franklin and Jocelyn Bell, for example, were both overlooked for their contributions to work that won their male colleagues Nobel prizes. A century before they would not even have been allowed into the lab, or the lecture hall. Human potential cannot flourish without nurture and encouragement, seeds cannot grow if they are not planted. Science and engineering may be concerned with objective realities, but they are products of social collaboration, from which no-one should be excluded a priori. We should always remember that one thing that unites us all, whatever our differences, is human fallibility.