Three possible futures for South Africa | Jakkie Cilliers

Three possible futures for South Africa | Jakkie Cilliers | TEDxJohannesburg

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9 жыл бұрын

This talk was given at a local TEDx event, produced independently of the TED Conferences. Might South Africans build the future they want? Jakkie Cilliers’ deep probes into the future give us a priceless glimpse into what lies ahead for country and continent. His TEDxJohannesburg 2014 presentation forecasts three possible futures for South Africa: Mandela Magic, Nation Divided, and Bafana Bafana. The prospects of each are self-evident. Either way, he says, it‘s the choices that South Africans make today that will determine where in the future the country ends up.
Dr Jakkie Cilliers co-founded the Institute for Security Studies in 1990, where he is now the Executive Director. He holds a BA from the University of Stellenbosch and a BA Honours, MA and DLitt et Phil from the University of South Africa. A widely published and regular commentator, Dr Cilliers’ current interest lie in forecasting long terms trends for South Africa and the greater African continent. Dr Cilliers also serves on the editorial boards of the African Security Review and the South African Journal of International Affairs.
About TEDx, x = independently organized event In the spirit of ideas worth spreading, TEDx is a program of local, self-organized events that bring people together to share a TED-like experience. At a TEDx event, TEDTalks video and live speakers combine to spark deep discussion and connection in a small group. These local, self-organized events are branded TEDx, where x = independently organized TED event. The TED Conference provides general guidance for the TEDx program, but individual TEDx events are self-organized.* (*Subject to certain rules and regulations)

Пікірлер: 173

@joesoap1765 6 жыл бұрын

this talk was in 2013-things have become a nightmare in the last 4 years. Good luck South africa

@alinenoriega 3 жыл бұрын

😢💔

@urban_rose4096 3 жыл бұрын

I'm here in 2020...oh Boi oh boi

@AlbertvWyk 5 жыл бұрын

How silly one feels now, never thought it would get so much worse so quickly... right?

@davidcollins2648 6 жыл бұрын

So much for Mandela Magic. Been a rough 4 years since this video came out.

@flightographist 6 жыл бұрын

He did not address the fact that in order to return to 5% growth, SA needs an additional 2000 megawatts of energy infrastructure expansion at a minimum.

@ginomanshit2365 6 жыл бұрын

don't worry im sure some kang in zimbabwe can build you another nuclear reactor

@derek8564 5 жыл бұрын

@@ginomanshit2365 yup I'm sure. With a grass roof and everything. Man I'm glad Africans invented everything 😂

@callenomari1403 2 жыл бұрын

you probably dont care but does someone know of a way to get back into an Instagram account?? I somehow forgot the account password. I appreciate any assistance you can give me!

@dennisgunnar1005 2 жыл бұрын

@Callen Omari Instablaster =)

@callenomari1403 2 жыл бұрын

@Dennis Gunnar I really appreciate your reply. I found the site thru google and Im in the hacking process atm. Takes quite some time so I will get back to you later when my account password hopefully is recovered.

@moonchild7033 3 жыл бұрын

Interesting to watch this now in 2021 after our economy has been completely decimated by the lockdown - so much for there being any growth now, well done ANC.

@GustoStCool 6 жыл бұрын

I'm from Metropolitan Detroit. I've already seen your future.

@911kappies 6 жыл бұрын

He hasn't heard about the Guptas

@tfmkhonza5084 3 жыл бұрын

Now the Oppenheimers and Ruperts

@911kappies 6 жыл бұрын

Is this guy joking? He is living in a dream world!

@Hakirokone 8 жыл бұрын

Given the current demographics, spiraling educational system results and HIV statistics, there is only one possible future for S. Africa. Expect white flight on a country wide level.

@prosperndumiso9582 8 жыл бұрын

RideOrHike i dont think south africa really needs to be loved by European countries...... I not all about Europe

@kjsmith7472 7 жыл бұрын

+Mountain MAN To say they stole it is an outright lie. Actual history shows that the Boers bought the land from the African Kings and the price they paid. There are documents and titles in a museum.

@kjsmith7472 7 жыл бұрын

Mountain MAN LOL I thought it was just my opinion ? Do your own research .

@kjsmith7472 7 жыл бұрын

Mountain MAN The documents exist whether you believe it or not doesn't matter . But it does make people like you look foolish .

@kjsmith7472 7 жыл бұрын

***** Having a nice little conversation with the voices in your head ?

@911kappies 6 жыл бұрын

Investors? Please don't invest. Take your money and run

@adamzaidi1748 5 жыл бұрын

Which company would invest in a country where the government can just up and take anything they want? That is a huge risk to investors. Not only are they going to starve to death ,but their country's economy will collapse. South Africa has doomed themselves.

@camilonxele8680 8 жыл бұрын

I like that we vote for what we want not the anc

@felicitydowning7970 Жыл бұрын

Thank you Mr Cilliers.

@budha59 8 жыл бұрын

interrwsting watching this video in march 2016, with zuma fucking up big time in dec 2015.

@eltonjohn729 5 жыл бұрын

I knew he was JOKING when he said Mandela Magic. LMAO. The Rainbow 🌈 Nation is a farce.

@isoboy1000 7 жыл бұрын

Inadequate/low quality of education create unemploment, meaning there are less people with skills to be employed or to start small business which will result to poverty that lead to crime because of inequality. so the first thing we must look at is EDUCATION, we need more skilled population to encourage SME and get more young people to get involved in programs like FARMING to create employment to have food security and export some of the crops.

@DominicBarrDB 6 жыл бұрын

KC Makgatho finally a comment worth reading in this toxic comments section. Our biggest issue is certainly education. 33% to pass and still having kids failing is no pretty picture

@michaelstillwell3513 6 жыл бұрын

KC Makgatho Good luck with that.

@isoboy1000 4 жыл бұрын

@Margaret Temple Can you do farming without skills?

@bobbybellingham2074 5 жыл бұрын

Whatever Jakkie……………...….Mandela Magic is exactly whats going on in SA today.

@tfmkhonza5084 3 жыл бұрын

Mandela was a sucker for whites not Africans he sold the Country

@paulkruger1945 4 жыл бұрын

This was produced 5 years ago - so what does your picture look like now? I would think rather different & unfortunately a lot worse under the ANC - I won't bother to even mention possible EFF rule. A forecast gone horribly wrong!

@geoffreyreeks2422 6 жыл бұрын

So, this man is discussing how much socialism South Africa should have. He is missing the point. Socialism is no the solution. It is the problem.' Regards, Geoff. Reeks

@laislabonita 2 жыл бұрын

Rubbish Regards

@anumanuva2431 5 жыл бұрын

I think we're past the discussion part....

@carels5158 4 жыл бұрын

Wonder what Mr Cilliers is predicting now?

@RFaria-pu4qy 3 жыл бұрын

November, 2020. Glad I never trusted 'Institutes' or Mandela Magic, just the factual history of all African countries as a reliable model for SA's future.

@zell863 3 жыл бұрын

Lol what else. Lol at idiots. And just north is Rhodesia - Zimbabwe. To build things you need high IQ.

@yourlifedesign4077 3 жыл бұрын

I am so concerned, look what has happened in just over 5 years.....scary and sad sad sad.

@siyabongamthimunye6487 7 жыл бұрын

this is simply to attract investors

@eltonjohn729 5 жыл бұрын

Yep, this is essentially a scam. SA is a disaster and it will be for the foreseeable future. It's probably going to get worse... Bafana Bafana is a pipe dream, let alone this guy's dreams.

@andrewsema359 6 жыл бұрын

Looking at this again today reminds me that options can disappeared just as quickly. Talking about change changes very little but by doing change changes everything. Go figure.

@YoutubeUser.. 5 жыл бұрын

October 2018 and we are worse than the worst forecast that was presented in this talk. A sinking ship with too many holes and water in board to save it. Sorry but if you can get out.

@zell863 3 жыл бұрын

Man you are Zimbabwe two. Just wrap and leave.

@Hannodb1961 6 жыл бұрын

That last statement about a constituent system is utter hogwash. The only reason that South Africa is not in the same check mate situation as Zimbabwe, is precisely because we have a proportional system, rather than a constituent system. Also, the proportional system encourages a multi party system, with a variety of voices being heard, while the constituent system entrenches two parties that becomes unchallengable. There is no gerrymandering in a proportional system. And the argument that you can hold your local MP accountable is hogwash. When you look at voting patterns in the mixed local government system, most people vote for the party, not the candidate. You could be the best DA candidate in the entire party: If you them move to another party, the people will vote for your replacement. The constituent system can only truly be democratic when the local MPs is chosen by the local population, free of any party loyalties.

@eltonjohn729 5 жыл бұрын

At a federal level, it would make sense. Other than that I can only see the country breaking up.

@RamonThomas 8 жыл бұрын

I recommend you watch Frans Cronje 2015 presentation at the Cato Institute instead - South Africa: The Next 10 Years www.cato.org/multimedia/events/south-africa-next-ten-years

@stanleymoskowitz5841 6 жыл бұрын

get rid of zuma and his gang .

@ericboxer3053 3 жыл бұрын

The EFF in parliament is good news 😅😅😅😅😅

@janruudschutrups9382 6 жыл бұрын

Very interesting and all, but does he know da wey?

@Azrael-me1tm 6 жыл бұрын

Jan Ruud Schutrups my Brodda. He does not kno de wey.

@neelsboonzaaier5022 6 жыл бұрын

Ai ai ai! En nou 2018 hoop ek hy het nog soveel selfvertroue oor wat hy se!! Hoop maar sy ogies is nou oop! Hierdie is NIE n ekonomiese reus nie en die “government en EFF” is nie die maatjies wat hy gedink het nie! Ai ai ai!!!

@heidelindeholtzhausen5439 5 жыл бұрын

Why not start an independent new money and call it something else. Print a lot of a new named money system independent from international banks and interest, change the mindset of the majority of people to be willing to work. Government can't give people jobs, the people should change their mindset towards work. Inequality is a mindset in the majority people that needs to be looked at and carefully addressed. My mindset and perception is what changes my life. Change starts within. People need to realize why work exists. Firstly for food, secondly housing, thirdly to have a good life and to enjoy your life. You can't start with the last, start with the necessities. If you don't know why you are working for money, then what is the point of working at all?

@CillaNeill 6 жыл бұрын

In 2018 a nation divided

@kambrose1549 2 жыл бұрын

In 2022 this sounds weird. The ANC is totally unresponsive and some in it are attacking the judiciary.

@stevensnow2410 5 жыл бұрын

Here in 2018 they just passed a law to take farming land from white people, for being white. Poverty is on the rise still and things are worse than ever. RIP AFRICA

@brandonbreaker7390 6 жыл бұрын

I want to move to South Africa to be a farm hand

@africanwarlord5877 3 жыл бұрын

That's...out the box I'm not even gonna lie to you bro😂😂😂

@DonMrLenny 3 жыл бұрын

I guess you have a death wish

@ericboxer3053 3 жыл бұрын

Next he'll be expressing his schadenfreude at having such brilliant high quality ministers with the utmost integrity, like Zuma, or Ace Magashula

@jacob2431992 5 жыл бұрын

"The best news is that the EFF is now in parliament" HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

@squareinternet8234 8 жыл бұрын

It is impossible to give neutral analysis of political or economic landscape. Somehow you will show signs of baisness.

@nellieprice6403 6 жыл бұрын

Fracking did not happen 2018 now!

@stanleymoskowitz5841 6 жыл бұрын

south africa .will be chicago soon .

@h.m.5724 3 жыл бұрын

Chicago is kindergarten as compared to south Africa

@DonMrLenny 3 жыл бұрын

SA should take chicago as a model in its current state

@Prince-qr1te Жыл бұрын

@@h.m.5724 What are you talking about?🤡 I don't see any kids with machine guns over here

@redhorizons8696 7 жыл бұрын

that was 2014, 2017 is another story!!!!!

@eland65 6 жыл бұрын

Today is the 25th October 2017, Hillcrest, Durban, Kwazulu Natal, South Africa, Africa, Southern Hemisphere, planet hearth, Mandela is dead, Zuma's work being done, your cristal ball is fake and we are done here...

@Azrael-me1tm 6 жыл бұрын

eduardo landolt Today is the 8th March 2018, Germiston, Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa, Africa, Southern Hemisphere, Planet *Earth* , Zuma has Resigned, Ramaposa is currently fixing all of Zuma's mistakes, you are to quick to a conclusion and we are done here...

@theliberator2 6 жыл бұрын

fixing the problems by doing what exactly ?

@johnsmit7203 3 жыл бұрын

@@Azrael-me1tm" Ramaphosa is fixing all Zuma's mistakes" He doesn't even know what "mistakes" Zuma has made, never mind fixing them. The Zondo Commission has cost R 700 million so far investigating "State Capture" - Zuma's mistakes you call it- and nobody has been prosecuted yet. Nor is it looking likely anyone will be prosecuted because they are all connected to the ruling party. No fixing being done - yet.

@johnsmit7203 3 жыл бұрын

@@Azrael-me1tm Zuma is being prosecuted now (2020) for things he broke before he became President (weapons transaction circa late '90's). He (Zuma) will probably be dead by the time his appeal against conviction is heard. So no, nothing is being fixed. Not yet !!!

@adamzaidi1748 5 жыл бұрын

History always repeats itself. Judgment Day has arrived for South Africa, they have doomed themselves. It's like the old saying goes, never bite the hand that feeds you because what comes around goes around and Karma discriminates on no one.

@nithionvanlithe9369 5 жыл бұрын

He did not take into account the civil war scenario!

@professorsaucy9697 4 жыл бұрын

This aged badly

@ElvenWisdom 6 жыл бұрын

I find it sad that when a great soul like Nelson Mandela comes into change a nation....you have successors who mess everything up again. The good thing is that there is always hope that another wise leader will come in to fix the mess of Zuma & Ramaphosa.

@gec77ko 3 жыл бұрын

Wonder what the Covid saga has caused the forecasters to rethink their strategies of forecasting which are not much different from astrology in hindsight.

@eliznaalgera4220 7 жыл бұрын

Agree with you commander, closing our borders is key - we're sitting with 2 mil illegals in S.A. no wonder crime is high, jobs are few. Appointing Prince Mashele as President will also help!

@heaty007 6 жыл бұрын

Elizna Algera blacks have no land and are poor. Thats the real problem. Sooo buddy fix that before they change the constitution and take all the land. If you are part of SA why would u want 46 million people having no land or homes. Well a country is a body and if most of the cells in the body are sick the whole thing dies. So because whites dodged reperations, land and other privilages now you will suffer.

@camilonxele8680 8 жыл бұрын

DA MUST DO THIS

@ryanrichardson5696 7 жыл бұрын

Camilo Nxele thank you

@thebergbok8279 7 жыл бұрын

In 2017 even worse with state capture, the Zuptas & Guptas involvement with international crime syndicates. The smelly snake ball is slowly starting to unravel & it does not look good. Personally I feel that Jakkie Cilliers has all the best qualities inherent in many Afrikaners, a frank optimistic honesty in assessment & approach to state involvement & economic growth being one of them . In the cess climate we are living in that honest approach is his downfall . He has not calculated the primitive sly brain at work into his positive equations .My opinion.

@floating-in 2 жыл бұрын

😂 this didn't age well. Last I heard this guy was working at McDonald's.

@dominusnox8231 4 жыл бұрын

I bet this guy was also a Tesla short seller.

@Azrael-me1tm 6 жыл бұрын

This comment section is the reason we can't get along

@johnsmit7203 3 жыл бұрын

We can if we play the ball and not the man. Keep it factual. Opinions are the glue fouling up this machine.

@emailwilliamgrobanmanageme6677 3 жыл бұрын

yes and this is the more reason the stock market is the best form to make your investment with the steady increase of bitcoin everyday. One can become financially free within the next couple of months

@emailwilliamgrobanmanageme6677 3 жыл бұрын

+:1:8:3:3:7:7:5:0:7:0:7;W/h/a/t/s/A/p/p/< With> / A/U/s/t/In/

@toonmag50 6 жыл бұрын

God save the British Queen not the Dutch one.

@levispaargaren 5 жыл бұрын

we have a king now :P

@RR-ri4vn 3 жыл бұрын

To much negativity in the comment section

@TheJukeboxhero15 6 жыл бұрын

EUROPE IS THE BLAME THERE. LEAVE AFRICA ALONE

@rouxjw 5 жыл бұрын

Ja, go tell that to the millions of African refugees in Europe. If you want to be communist slaves for Russia and China, go to back to West Africa.

@brandanmashiane9306 7 жыл бұрын

It is not true, you must listen to an african entrepreneur and listen to get a positive perspective" tony "

@lindsaydunn2869 4 жыл бұрын

The continent still has good resources to sustain its people - it has a large population of young people and mineral resources, much of which are yet to be discovered. With global racism and nationalism on the rise, the West will help us speed up inter African trade and reduce reliance on the West. When immigrants from developing countries no longer have a need or desire to move to Europe or the USA, a fast aging West will find itself needing workers they cannot produce in their own countries and I'm curious as to how that will affect their economies. We just need to keep our resource scout of the greedy hands of Western and Chinese exploiters and the process will take off. Progress is inevitable. I am sorry so many white people have this bitterness and anger in their hearts. At the same time, I believe non African immigrants will replace them from Europe and Asia. Development in Africa does not have to depend on the West or on white people. Economies are not dependent on or based on race or nationalities. Vestiges of Colonialism will eventually fade from our consciousness and new generations born into a tech heavy world will not harbor the same insecurities we currently have. It may take a decade or two or more but Africas progress is inevitable. South Africa will keep improving its infrastructure even if it's with Chinese help but it will get to where the quality of life for Africans will be enough to bring a dynamism and vibrancy that satisfies its people. We dont need to measure wealth by western standards. Even if in SA a lot more people are living a lot better than during Apartheid. I live in the USA but go home to SA often enough to see for myself as evidenced by the quality of life family members have moved up to. My American wife and children are definitely impressed and their connections with their cousins in SA gets them excited about the future. They are attending universities and preparing to be engineers, marine biologists and entrepreneurs. Many of my nephews and nieces where born after Apartheid and have no personal experience living under those laws- they do not carry the baggage that goes with that past. Yebo. Siyeza. Nizobona. South Africas strategic geopolitical position is a huge asset. Yeah! Inspite of the ANC stinking farts. A nation ultimately is greater than any individual or political party. Humans are born and die, nations live on a lot longer than we do.

@johnsmit7203 3 жыл бұрын

@@lindsaydunn2869 I agree with most of your statements but am not sure if you are right. Which, i suppose, makes me wrong too!!