Stormlanders were procrastinating aswell, Boros Baratheon only marched after Rhaenyra's death. It looks like they all were afraid to face dragons in battle.

It's hilarious how Cregan was so obviously late and acted all pissed off at Tullys for celebrating, called them pups when it was actually the riverlanders who did all the fighting for Rhaenyra.

Cregan honestly is a genius for how he handled the North's involvement in the war. He kept his people out of the fighting for as long as possible, let his enemies destroy themselves, and swooped in to finish the war and prosecute his "enemies" after the fighting was over. And what could the survivors do? Criticize him for being late? Corlys defected and took a pardon after Rhaenyra died, Lady Arryn was late, most of Rhaenyra's supporters were dead or severely undermanned, and all the perpetrators of Aegon II's faction were either dead or now imprisoned. Cregan held all the cards, put on a grand display of "justice" to show how "committed" he was to Rhaenyra that just happened to distract the world from the fact that he took two years to make a 4 month trip, and then went home as the noble hero. S-tier leadership. No notes.

The intro reminds me of your old videos So nostalgic

I do hope that HotD adapts it this way. Could be a lot of fun toying with people's expectations of the Freys versus the Starks, to have the Late Lord Frey's predecessors move extremely quickly and put in 110% effort to help Rhaenyra, while the Starks dither and stall (not that I'd blame them - for once their geography helps them out; they don't have to deal with the rock and hard place that trap poor Rosby and Stokeworth)

"I'm gathering my troops." Aka "the check is in the mail." 😂

I mean most of the honourabe Starks we met were either raised by Arryn or someone else raised by Arryn.

I missed these old school theories!! Great stuff Preston!

Reminds me of Doran’s kimdissi philosophy in the deeper dorne series. The valyrian houses destroy themselves whilst Cregan Stark and Torrhen Manderly end up on top as hand of the king and regent.

“I’m probably wrong about half of this”-perhaps resurrected by one of those mysterious Hightowers nobody ever sees?

Cregan was dealing with problems of his own. He'd just deposed his uncle, who'd basically kept him under house arrest for years, and doubtless had allies in the northern houses who Cregan couldn't fully trust. You only get the maester's version of what happened in those years, but the north was probably doing a little civil war of it's own.

When I last read F&B, I definitely felt like something was off with the timing of the Northmen's arrival. Thank you for laying it all out!

Great work as always! It'll be interesting to see how things are portrayed in the show, I'm unsure if they'll be willing to even broach the idea of Starks being less than honorable.

I mean. . . I don't blame them. If you are faced with a guy with a dragon demanding you join them, can you really say no? You nod your head and then drag your feet. After all, what are the Blacks or the Greens to them? Why should they care about their family drama?

The Maesters: "pssst! Ayy Starks... hang back until the dragons all eat each other." Starks: "What about the other houses? Won't we look weak?" The Maesters: "Nah, homie! We're in every house. Same deal... Let them burn each other down first, riiiight?." Starks: "Bet" 🤔 *And what a grand plot it was!!*

Waiting until winter is the smartest time for the Vale and the North to fight, for them. No one is conquering them or even trying to raid them during the winter.

NEW BIG VIDEO!!!!!!!! I though there will be only streams and fanfic till the endtime.

We need more videos like this Preston’s going back to his roots ! Love it

Ah, perfect timing Preston. Was seaching for something to listen to.

We are so back sisters

Perhaps it was both Dunks adventure in the north as well as Jon Arryn who were directly responsible for the Starks code of Honor

Based Starks saw an opportunity to weaken the damned dragon lords and took it.

I actually laughed out loud when you said the North only came 2 YEARS after the pact.

Wake up babe, new Preston Jacobs theory video just dropped.

“Sup yo I know like winter has come or whatever but you see my dragon I brought? Wanna come help me fight a bunch of them or be labeled an oath breaker?”

The title of this video immediately made me think of the Empress Matilda fighting Stephen in Anglo-Norman history. King David of Scotland claimed to fight for Matilda's claim - but in fact just used that as a cover to try and better his own interests in England, conquer territory - and closen his ties with Northumbria. Something to keep in mind if George wrote TDOTD with Matilda and Stephen in mind!

27:15 HE DID IT, HE SAID THE THING

Oh, this feels like an old school Preston Video

I think there are good points here but I came to a different conclusion. Is it more or less honorable to send your entire army to get roasted by dragons, or to hold them back strategically until they can be properly utilized? It seems like yes, this was an intentional choice, but in the end it (debatably) saved northern and vale lives.

But the pact of ice and fire stated that Jacaerys’ first daughter would marry Cregan Stark’s son and heir Rickon. He dies in the first month of 130 ac. So that pact became null and void. Still, Cregan gathered up an army and sent them down to fight knowing he wasn’t getting anything out of the deal anymore. Also, the winter wolves were sent early and the Manderly’s sent knights while Cregan Stark got the whole north ready to fight. I’m sure they were in any hurry to fight dragons. But they still went even though they had already lost everything they were supposed to get out of this war.

Yeah I Always had that feeling that the Starks having problems to prepare their army was nonsence and very opportunistic After all Cregan only entered the War when the dance was almost over and he made a flawless War and later Robb a century and half After that did go to War despite also having problems yes he lost but he still was able to have an army and made someone good moves

Saying the Winter Wolves were an insignificant number really overlooks how small armies usually were for this time period, at the Battle at Rook's Rest and the Sack of Duskendale the entire Green army commanded by Criston Cole only numbered in the 3000s. At the Battle of the Honeywine they were the majority of the Black forces that we know of, with the Greens only having 8000 men for that battle. At the Butcher's Ball the Greens were less than 3600.

Love the intro. Up there with The Purple Wedding and Brienne, Gender & the Squishers!

If the north and Vale were skimming they suffered hard as winter fucked them hard leading to the north going into massive debt to the ironbank and the Vale having a civil war

Great video. People need to stop thinking of House Stark as "the house obsessed with honor". Ned was honorable (partly I think because of his upbringing in the Vale mixed with his trauma from the Rebellion). And this is partly what leads to House Stark's downfall. He let his honor stand before his political sense. And he was the exception. From what we've seen, most Stark lords were hardass pragmatists who did what was necessary to preserve the supremacy and survival of their house. Torrhen Stark bent the knee. Alaric played nice with Alysanne. Cregan Stark ensured he got to make the choices at the end of the Dance. And Rickard made in-roads to uniting the Lords Paramount against the madness of Aerys. And that isn't even taking into account all the horrible things the Kings of Winter did to ensure their rule over the North. Just ask all the exiled Blackwoods and the extinct Ambers, Greenwoods, and Frosts.

I mean to be fair, the Blacks also didn't honor agreements. The Starks were promised a Targaeryen princess but received none. Also, the North is huge so it makes sense why it took a while to rally. Finally, it wasn't just the North that were dragging. The Vale was as well, and it's not surprising since the Dance was an incredibly messy affair, and many lords didn't want to make a mistake that would end in a dragonfire bath.

I just started watching this video but - as someone who's been watching your content for quite a while - I have to point out that that intro was your best one yet. So lovely!

This is the kind of content I subscribe for. Amazing, glad these kinds of videos are back

I love your theory videos like this ! This truly made my day ! Old school Preston vid 🙏🏾🔥

I think most of this can be put down to the Dance being poorly written, with the excuse that the northmen were too busy stockpiling food for the winter only going so far to cover GRRM's ass. In any event, I doubt Cregan Stark is some conniving, self-interested guy, given that he is almost as much of an an author's pet as Daemon and Corlys. Also, GRRM probably wanted the northmen out of the way because he thinks Rhaenyra would have easily won the war with a Northern army. 15:42 The Winter Wolves were some of Team Black's most valuable assets, given that at First Tumbleton, they basically cause the Greens to lose the whole war by taking out Lord Hightower: "Roddy the Ruin and his Winter Wolves sallied forth from a postern gate, screaming their terrifying northern war cries as they swept around the left flank of the attackers. In the chaos that ensued, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐦𝐞𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐢𝐫 𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐰𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐋𝐨𝐫𝐝 𝐎𝐫𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐬𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐞𝐠𝐨𝐧’𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐧 𝐝𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐛𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐎𝐥𝐝𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫. As the singers tell it, Lord Roderick was bloody from head to heel as he came on, with splintered shield and cracked helm, yet so drunk with battle that he did not even seem to feel his wounds. Ser Bryndon Hightower, Lord Ormund’s cousin, put himself between the northman and his liege, taking off the Ruin’s shield arm at the shoulder with one terrible blow of his longaxe…yet the savage Lord of Barrowton fought on, slaying both Ser Bryndon and Lord Ormund before he died. Lord Hightower’s banners toppled, and the townsfolk gave a great cheer" (The Dying of the Dragons: Rhaenyra Triumphant) "the death of Lord Ormund Hightower had left them without a leader, and the lords who wished to command in his place were at odds with one another." (The Dying of the Dragons: Rhaenyra Overthrown) 600 old northmen fighting through some 6000 reachers to kill the Lord of Oldtown shows that GRRM really loves the North and thinks that its people are so beyond badass that southerners can't hope to match them in battle, given that the North dealt the Greens one of their greatest blows by sending raggedy old men.

So great to get a new full-length, books-only analysis like your old videos! And a great one at that, like always :)

Glad that you're making theory videos again!

I have to take an hour ride, and you’re right on time with this one, Good Ser.

At last the kind of video series we want from you, Preston, love you 🙏

Fresh non podcast preston. hallelujah

So really we should give D&D a break with the teleporting around Westeros in Got. It matters not whether you are right or wrong because GRRM doesn't even know his timelines. The only thing we do know is that the Starks have very shady past, as does every major house. Some of the hopeful lesser houses manage to hang in there, some manage to rise a little bit, many more die and fade into legends. Time is fluid in this world and if it makes little sense in the book, then HOTD just has to make the best of a conveniently obtuse written book.

Finally a new theory video!

LETSGO PJ theory video!!!

Unless I am wrong winter was either already hitting the north or was about to hit, which is why Dustin rode down with essentially his old volunteers that otherwise would be stuck home

What’s this a new series!?! Legendary

In the Norths and Vale's defense it was autumn and winter was fast approaching so they had to prepare for it See how in the main story the North and Riverlands are suffering from a lack of food with winter fast approaching.....

omg, a preston video about a theory that isn't a stream. hype!

a random preston jacobs video in my timeline? hell yeah!

Didn't the Starks basically say they had to have time to bring in a harvest and try to plant another one before winter or else the north would starve?

i ve missed those asoiaf theories! good job!

I agree that the Starks clearly had plans for after the Dance, the hour of the wolf was a mass execution of the previous regime. Though you forgot that the Stark specifically said they needed to bring in the harvest before mobilizing en masse. Did they delay totally, but not for two whole years.

This is excellent. In research, reasoning, and then a very clean presentation.

Rhaenyra should've made royal progresses around the realm while she lived at dragonstone and had her sons fostered in other kingdoms like the vale and the north or wherever else that way she would've had allies already in her pocket instead of sending her sons out after her father died.

The Reach was split in half between the Greens and the Blacks. Aemond took the fighting to Harrenhall and the Riverlands. All the others, why would they join? Because they gave their word under veiled threats? "Join me or I'll burn you down" Cregan was based and redpilled! 😂

Finally we have returned to true Prestoros

Great video Preston!

Preston and DLB are simply the best around. Thanks for putting this content out.

What a good day to see a new preaton video! And i just finnish firw and blood

Good stuff! Keep the videos coming

I’ll be honest this is the most believable over your last bunch of videos, but still enjoy hearing your theories :)

I never understood that about the north. If during peace time and winter comes, the old just leave to go die in the snow. Why not just join the watch? It’s better then just going to die

Question is, do HOTD/HBO have the guts to portray the Starks this way?

ngl I needed this in this cycle thx

Sounds like the Northerners filled the Kimdissi role during the Dance

Glad to see a video like this again.

I’m genuinely thrilled about this timeline breakdown

Did Cregan fight in Daeron I's Dornish War? He fought Aemon the Dragonknight at some point, so either Aemon went north, or Cregan went south at some point... If he did fight in the war, would love to hear how Daeron and his Hand Viserys dragonlessly convinced him to join to contribute in a timely manner...

Your video got quoted a couple times on this forum I'm active on, Space Battles. Including by me if I'm being honest. And someone (username: Elder Haman) posted a pretty good rebuttal to this video. So I'm just going to copy past it below: That's one fan's very biased view of the whole thing. The more reasonable interpretation is that Rhaenyra called for supporters in early autumn, and thus the North sent their old men south as a vanguard (and under their best general Roddy the Ruin who was one of Cregan's mentors so hardly holding back there), while the rest of the North spent the next year harvesting like mad for the coming winter. Then once the harvest was in he called his banners, which takes another half a year to gather (remember the size of the North, and now you are dealing with winter snows blocking the roads), and then he marched south (which takes another half a year). It's not a case of Cregan being deceitful and deliberately late. It's that he has deal with winter and if he didn't have a harvest his smallfolk would starve to death. They ended up starving anyway because of how long the winter was, and because with Corlys dead, the other Southern Lords (mainly Greens in the Reach and West) decided to screw over the North and not sell them food. Furthermore, I have to object to specifics of the video. They claim that the Freys managed to move so quickly to aid the Blacks, yes, that's because they have a river to use for transport, and the Freys were already solid Blacks, no need for more than a raven to get them to start gathering (remember Lord Frey and the Fool Frey are the same man) - which the video even notes, but then seems to think the Vale can respond as quickly which is nonsense from looking at the map. Just because the distance is the same does not mean the travel time is the same. The Freys had a river, and were travelling through friendly and densely populated territory (so not as much need for a logistics train), and gathered forces from lands adjoining the Twins. The Vale has to gather men over five to six times as much territory, which is all mountains, and then has to march through a hostile mountain pass in autumn (since the Mountain Clans are even stronger at this point in time) to get to Harrenhall. It's not surprising that in canon the Vale instead sent knights to Kings Landing by boat. He also places the dates too early. As Jace returns half a year before his birthday at the end of the year, we can put the Stark alliance as having been secured sometime in late May, early June, which is probably the same time as the battle of Burning Mill. Which is in the wider timeline he suggests, but he suggests it probably happened in April (and later uses that to estimate the time Cregan took), which is nonsense. He then claims that with Rook's Rest around November, that the Starks are gathering men and that this is horribly late. It is not. That's five months in middle of harvest. Robb requires three months at least at the end of summer, with better roads, better weather, and he doesn't gather all his forces, just what could be gathered swiftly. According to his standards, Robb was late even though he was marching to save his father and sisters. This is just a case of someone who doesn't understand the distance involved, or the way harvests interact with available men for war. The real lack of support was the lack of ships from Gulltown and White Harbour to support closing the Gullet. Though we are told that such was offered but that Corlys proudly said he didn't need more ships - this is because the Triarchy joing the war caught all the Blacks by surprise. They thought that the Greens wouldn't invite foreigners (slavers!) into the war. The videos continues to make these claims, such as it taking a month to ride from Winterfell to the Twins, when it took Robert Braratheon "months" to travel from Winterfell to King's Landing (with the implication being around 4 to 5 months), which is twice the distance, but the part between the Twins and Winterfell is much worse in how narrow the road is and the surrounding terrain. It's more reasonable to think it would take about three months. In other words, they left Winterfell right around the time news arrived that they were gathering forces at Winterfell (which makes sense, they probably sent word right before they left Winterfell). He then compares the size of the Winter Wolves to the Size of Robb's host, again disregarding the different circumstances and times. For one thing, Robb is 170 years later, and they just had a ten year long summer, which means that the North would have a much larger population than normal (and in fact the numbers raised by the various regions in Dance are significantly less than those raised by those same regions in the War of the Five Kings). He then mentions they participated in the Fishfeed, but fails to mention how utterly vital to the victory that those Winter Wolves were. Roderick Dustin was also important in the Butcher's Ball as well. They were not merely a symbolic force as the videos implies, but were massively important to the Black victories. He even then points out that winter had not yet fully arrived until Maiden's Day in 130 AC. Of course only then will Cregan be able to gather the men who had been harvesting food until that time and send them south. So you'd expect at least another six to eight months before the next wave of Northmen arrive. (More forces, worse weather, on foot, longer times marching, etc). The exception being those that go by boat - and guess what? That's when the first Manderly forces arrive. (I'll also point out that the Vale also has to deal with harvests, their winters aren't as bad as the North, but they are much worse than anywhere else in the South). I will grant that more men in Kings Landing would have helped against the smallfolk riots, but that was an unexpected event. It's hard to express how utterly astonished everyone must have been that smallfolk ended up killing five dragons, without even a lordly commander. No doubt everyone (including Rhaenyra) thought that reinforcements were needed more elsewhere (primarily at Tumbleton to invade the Reach). Furthermore the videos never asks the question: If Cregan was playing Rhaenyra false, then why send more forces at all after her death? There was no more Jace to provide a daughter for his son, nor a Joffery to marry a Manderly. Why not sue for peace? Why not accept the peace deal worked out by Corlys? The person that actually played the Dance deceitfully was Lord Baratheon. Who called his banners, supposedly to fight for Aegon, but instead marched south to fight the Dornish, and only marched on the capital after Rhaenyra fled. I actually suspect that he might have had a secret arrangement with Rhaenyra to not fight her, since she seemed unthreatened by him and sent no forces to deal with him during her entire time in Kings Landing. She even denied Daemon when he suggested attacking Storms End. The whole video basically assumes that the North and Vale ought to have acted a certain way (ignoring all sorts of logistical realities that made that near impossible) and then declares them "without honor" for not acting the way he thinks they ought. He depends on the flashy and controversial claim to carry the day, and make people think he's so clever at seeing the "truth" behind the historical propaganda, but when you think about things a bit more it all falls apart. For one thing Viserys II seemed to count the North as a friend, and he had a good head on his shoulders, so I think he would have known if there really was something nefarious to how the North acted. Instead it's much simpler and likely that distance, logistics, and weather hampered Northern forces from arriving sooner. Perhaps Creagan could have shown a little less caution, and sent smaller numbers of forces as reinforcements to Roderick in drips and dribbles instead of massing a second force, but hindsight is 20/20. There are surely historical examples of a leader doing that and it resulting in defeat in detail.

Yaaay, an in depth theory video, I've missed these, don't get me wrong I love the fanfiction vids but I find the podcast type episodes a bit dull (no offence intended, they're just not to my taste)

Holy shit. An old school Preston video, love it!

This is why i kept rolling my eyes at people getting excited at Stark casting in HOTD. Starks DO NOTHING in Dance of Dragons. Roderick Dustin DOES -- but he is not even cast.

YOOOO NEW THEORY VIDEO??? This is a pleasant surprise

He was prepping for winter and his vassals was far apart

the loremaster returns!

I miss these detailed breakdowns!

love this form of your videos

I miss your catchphrase, and am glad it's back.

What? I randomly look up "Preston Jacobs" and here's a video released 10 minutes ago

I was meant to pick up my kid from daycare but just seen Preston Jacobs uploaded. He can wait a little longer.

How is it possible that I missed this video ??

Thing is, those Winter Wolves were momentously clutch at the First Battle of Tumbleton. Wasn't it two Lords Hightower and Criston Cole they ganked? Almost as efficient as some Faceless Men.

When will you do a breakdown of Varys and Illiryio's plans with Aegon and link to the blackfyre faction/Golden Company?

finally a theory video

Would be fun if this actually ends up being confirmed and turning out plot relevant to ASOIAF. I am kinda fond of theories about the Wild Walkers awakening as a result of Harrenhal or some unknown mess tied to the extinction of the Dragons or some particular Targ law. So I'd like it if it turns out that it could have been avoided had it not been for Cregan being particularly dishonorable. Could be fun it it also tied somewhat to Rickard's Southron ambitions as a compound in some form.

2024 preston back making theories ?!?!?! Fuck yesss okay 2024 is cooking

Being that the starks are such fan favourites of the show, I think hotd season 2 will have them play a larger role than they did in the books, hell they'll peobably be in every battle. However I disagree that the winter wolves were an insignificant force. The old men of the north were battle and winter hardened men, not like the old men of the south who lived like country lords or just lazy c*nts. The winter wolves also wanted glorious deaths, making them extremely difficult if not impossible to break in combat. If an army of 5000 lost half, they'd likely break. The winter wolves would likely fight till the last man.

Good morning fellow tin foils

One aspect that is always in the back of my head, when army sizes are brought up during the Dance of the Dragons. ALL armies during this conflict are smaller than during ASOIAF. Yes, 10K northmen (plus 2000 Winter Wolves) seem small compared to the 18k from Robb. But other armies in the dance are considerably smaller too. Borros Baratheon provides less than 5000 men when he joins the war. The Lannister army is only between 8-10k strong, compared to max. 50k strong during ASOIAF. And while you could argue that those low numbers are all caused by the nearing winter or maybe houses that held back parts of their strength (or even innacuarcies by GRRM), I think there is a way more reasonable explanation: Westeros had just a lower population back then. In my opinion, that makes totally sense. Between the Dance and the main storyline, roughly 270 years pass, and the population of Westeros simply grew during that time

Great video Preston thank you for keeping the flame alive in the wait for TWOW.... which I am becoming convinced will never happen

This seems key for the Southron Ambitions

Lord Preston, when are we getting a new Winds chapter?

I miss these theory videos 😊

Oh gosh! Another series? Wrong about half, none, or all, this is amazing!

One nitpick I might make is that just because the Manderly's losses are noted in number of knights lost, does not outright mean they *only* sent knights.

Cregan was late probably because he was prepping for winter first and since the north is so damn huge it does take a while to get all those troops together