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Ukraine is forming several new brigades amid mobilization, but will likely not be able to arm them due to delays in assistance from its partners.
As the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports , timely and appropriate Western security assistance remains a critical factor in determining when and to what extent Ukrainian forces will be able to challenge the initiative on the battlefield and conduct operationally significant counteroffensive operations in the future.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Ukrainian forces are in a better position in terms of manpower than they were a few months ago. However, he has also acknowledged that Ukraine’s ability to conduct a future counteroffensive depends on equipping brigades with heavy equipment, such as mechanized combat vehicles, armored personnel carriers, tanks and heavy artillery. Analysts say this includes at least 10 new Ukrainian brigades planned.
The commander of a Ukrainian brigade operating near Chasovy Yar provided a similar assessment at the tactical level, saying that Ukrainian forces in his operational zone were more in need of ammunition than of manpower.
Zelensky acknowledged that military equipment is taking too long to arrive at the front. The slow flow of American security aid is hampering Ukraine's efforts to equip reserve brigades sufficiently to engage in defensive operations.
At the same time, Ukrainian media constantly emphasize the lack of sufficient material resources to equip all the new Ukrainian brigades that are currently being formed. Current reports note that due to the slow supply of weapons, equipping the new brigades is questionable.
Analysts say Ukraine's ability to conduct operationally significant counteroffensive operations at a time of its choosing is critical to avoid protracting the war.
There is no time or flexibility to wait for the security of Western assistance to equip new units. The Russians are trying to use the initiative on the battlefield to try to force Ukraine to commit manpower and equipment to ongoing defensive operations and prevent it from accumulating the decisive personnel and resources needed to seize the initiative.
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