I learned a ton from this video with the solver on the screen as you went through the numbers & thought process. Thank you.
@derrsonn Жыл бұрын
He’s got 9% against sets with 2 to come, not 5%. 2 outs twice (2x4 shortcut) ≈ 8% 1-(42/44*41/43) ≈ 8.9%
@jamesdressler2463 Жыл бұрын
Yes glad someone else noticed
@CrushlivePoker Жыл бұрын
yup should have been 8% dirty for sure not sure why I was so set at 5% prob was thinking with one to come
@brianparada4779 Жыл бұрын
This is just all in on flop no discussion. Stacks are to shallow, if he doesn’t want to get stacks in and try to beat a flush draw just fold and move on but you can never fold QQ After calling flop
@darkcircle899 Жыл бұрын
The math literally says otherwise you can certainly play like that but that is a losing play over time.
@TheTree1 Жыл бұрын
@@darkcircle899lol no it isn’t. Jamming all in over the flop raise is not a losing play its standard.
@eshootziscrs2868 Жыл бұрын
@@TheTree1 @TheTree1 now you're changing what was said. This is a jam on the flop is not the same as this is a three bet jam on the flop. The response was to suggest that jamming the flop as the oop lead would be suicide. You risk a lot to win a little frequently while getting snapped by better too often, best case you get called by the nut flush with only one over, worse case you get called by a set. Mostly you get folds but are risking 750 to win 250 ( rough numbers). You might assume the person meant jamming after the raise but why assume if that's not what was said? If your assumption requires stupidity from the other maybe, just maybe, you need to question the assumption. Be nice to have clarity from the op in his comment but people fail to clearly communicate as often as not. The reply made an assumption based on wording that would be correct and actually not incorrect even if assumed as a three bet. If the opponent has a set you have 8%. If it's a draw like 78 suited in diamonds with 15 outs twice the opponent is ahead mathematically. If it's two overs with the flush draw opponent has 15 outs twice and is ahead by the math. With just Ax suited you are close to a flip, only slightly behind. All three scenarios are very close to a flip so no equity, stacks are too short to have fold equity. You must find your opponent can hold tens and jacks, maybe eights that will raise here as well to even come close to this being a simple standard jam. That's just me doing math without weighting one option against the other. Villain has a limp range, how linear is it, how tight or passive is the opponent. Will he do this with AK, open get a call and then raised by an oop blind? How about AJ, A 10 even A 6. Can he have A 5, A 4, A 3 as played. I'm not counting AQ since we have two of those but it could exist. Is 66 a limp or a raise if he has a limping range. But if as Bart says, villains range is heavily weighted to value by any significant margin it's a trivial fold since equally weighted against draws you are flipping with most hands and way way behind against sets. The combos don't really matter. Any real draw is slightly winning even J 10 suited isn't that bad against us at 60/40. He gets priced in and we still lose 40% of the time. Hero puts in what percentage of his stack pre, over 10% then leads for ( let's simplify to start 200bb deep leaving 875 back). Hero leads for 120/800 about 14% of stack. Preflop open 4bb, call 4bb raise 25bb, flop bet 24bb. Hero is in 25% and raised to 40%. There is no maneuvering from there. Can't call, raising is often suicidal, folding becomes optimal. Smaller raise pre is questionable, 3x plus call plus one for positional protection is only 100 and creates more room later. Too big and villain will only be set mining more than calling with 78, 10 8 and fold to a c - bet frequently. Two middling connectors also hits calling range more often when hero raises smaller suggesting we check flop more often to allow more action and not bloat the pot when we run into sets. Also gives us more room to check raise fold or check raise jam if we need to based on villains sizing. All of that gets into the weeds basing play on tendencies of the opponent. Hero gave his description, gave weight to recent experience with villain and did exactly what you suggest as standard. Results oriented but was this player aggressive enough post flop to bet A5 suited? Does he open that and call such a big squeeze with a player behind? Monkey in the middle is usually not a good spot to get into when you're the monkey. Some players are predictable in ranges, others will take a flyer or two, and some will play anything they find pretty. Four five of clubs might be a good bluff candidate, 4 5 of diamonds might be a flat. Balancing GTO, the optimal against any player, verses exploitive, playing a specific players tendencies becomes difficult if you conflate the two, especially without understanding and considering your own image, table dynamics and opponents thinking. I folded a set and he knows it, he might bluff more frequently. That's exploitive. Opponent is a break even player at best. That's exploitive. Opponent always puts me on overs that missed and will raise with over pairs that don't reraise pre, jacks and tens. These are assumptions that might not fit the players tendencies. We can't simply believe heroes assessment, there is no supporting evidence other than his belief. It is very difficult to balance a limp range with value hands unless we limp AA, KK, QQ and AK in the same spots. And it's hard to open flat big hands with a player behind. Basically villains range becomes quite compressed to pairs below jacks and suited hands above 7 . If we believe his limping range is linear. But once we get raise to over 50% of our remaining chips, everything gets polarized. His bluffs are going to be very close to flips or entire air and his value is really only two sets, sixes or nines. Villain played his hand quite standard for sure, opens 99, gets a call and then flats a raise from a third player who is oop. Faces a c-bet and raises to a committing size without over betting the pot by much. Sets up an easy turn shove giving hero about 2.5:1. Also takes the betting lead and allows for some very milky turn bets on a brick when just called. I think if we heard villains description of the same hand it might appear hero only raises this big with big hands, c-bets frequently and thinks people bluff him often so will call a larger raise here with an over pair or Ax of diamonds, like AK, AQ. Two overs with a flush vs villains 99 has eight flush outs and might think they have 6 pair outs. Really it's only the flush and running cards. 32% flush, 12% first pair, and 5% second pair for 1%, a 2:1 dog. Equally weighting between over pairs and draws the set is something 75% favorite. Can get a lot of value as well. Ask yourself how you would play villains spot, what are you opening, flatting and raising the flop with and why? How do you see hero as a player. What tendencies has he shown? What is the dynamic between you and hero? Was he upset about folding the set? Will he want to fold again, call or jam? If he's likely not folding are you bluffing a draw or calling to improve? If he over folds are you raising this big or would a smaller amount get the same results? Do you want a call, a fold or a raise and what is the best way to get that? Once you answer all of the questions for all of the hands you get here with then you can balance but if you're already not balanced then why bother now? What as the villain do you believe is the image hero has of you? Does he think he's the best player at the table, think you are a relatively bad player? Until you can define why villain is doing this against you it's best to give respect. You're barely ahead of anything but air. Why is this a standard jam against a villain who slow played a flopped straight? What bluffs have you seen to think his 3.3x, pot sized, stack committing raise is weighted toward draw/bluffs? Against a standard aggressive player who bluffs frequently and smaller maybe it's a jam to get it in while you have the best hand. But that player probably just calls the flop and bets or raises the turn with top set at least most often. Maybe they fast play bottom or second set like this. But it's unlikely they have a limping range unless the table is quite passive and loose. As described villain isn't opening twos and probably not sixes either. If he is, is he calling a 6.25 x raise with a player behind? Things don't add up to make this a standard jam in my opinion, not saying it never is. But not much about the hand is really standard when looking at the raise sizings. Hero plays aces, kings queens and maybe jacks and AK, AQ the same way I think. Maybe the offsuit Ace highs get raised bigger while suited get raised smaller. Maybe he doesn't have multiple sizings. I can't tell from one hand but I do find his sizing interesting. Just my thoughts that don't make a contradictory claim without supporting why. Not presuming others meant something when it wasn't clarified. I think if you jam here every time against this villain you will lose a lot of money. If you see this as a standard snap jam ( regardless of your acting and pretending to think it over) you will win against some players and find it very costly against many low stakes players. They just don't bluff this big often enough and even when they do you mostly break even because they improve half the time. Weight draws and sets equally and you have 30% equity getting under 2:1 with no fold equity. You need to find some complete air or overplayed pairs between eights and Queens. You might find them but if you never see them maybe they don't exist. Do you see airball bluffs here, over valued pairs? I don't know, I don't play, I don't gamble. Its way too hard when I can't see both hands.😊 I'm really good after seeing the hand played out, like I would have folded Queen's pre from the bb. Heck I would fold AA pre and jam 72 just to be balanced. I'd love to hear your thoughts on why this is a jam, if there are exceptions, when why? But if it's just a feeling that you believe, like thinking another person was wrong without clarity. Maybe you haven't actually had thoughts but think you did. Lord knows I'm wrong more than right. No offense intended Im always this way with most people. Rather have a discussion than simply saying, No, you're wrong because I say so.
@dacgours55 Жыл бұрын
@@eshootziscrs2868 holy cow
@eshootziscrs2868 Жыл бұрын
@@dacgours55 Hindu?
@tehblogger Жыл бұрын
this is a clear jam the flop
@lucasklingberg9551 Жыл бұрын
agreed, 600 eff, im in
@chevelle1 Жыл бұрын
🎯 Especially against this player type. Solvers have much less relevance in live poker. Live reads, tells, player tendencies, player type, hand history, opponent fatigue, etc are still massively important in live poker. Can’t be results oriented in this hand. Against a LAG player, with the details the caller laid out, this is a shove.
@zackstraus7958 Жыл бұрын
Why? If dude has AK why would we not want to let him bluff it off on the turn? He obviously folds no value. I have never not agreed with Bart but I do not think this is a shove on the flop.
@johnnyboychess Жыл бұрын
@@zackstraus7958 agreed. Keep their bluffs in. And if you know they’re bluffing with Ax suited diamonds-you can get away from it on a diamond or Ace runout
@AcrylicGoblin Жыл бұрын
With such a low stack to pot ratio, def a jam on the flop. If you are playing deep, you can fold an overpair if necessary, but with that money in preflop hero is not deep enough to bail.
@NOXkaz11 ай бұрын
“At best he’s a break even player” I died 😂😂
@stevezagieboylo9172 Жыл бұрын
I made exactly this mistake last night. I was playing against a mediocre pro. (I'm a good rec.) $1/$2 Preflop: He raised to $12 from hijack, cut-off called, I 3-bet to $45 on button with JsJc, only villain called. Flop: 2h 7h Th Villain checked. I bet $35 (about 1/3 on a monochrome board). Villain check-raises all in, to $205 total. I read him as weak, or, at least, hoping I didn't call, so I excluded flopped flushes. (I don't often have live reads that I trust, but I felt strongly about this one, and I'm usually right when I feel this way.) So I put him on either a combo hand, like maybe AT to JT with one heart, or else a set. Counting the combinations, there were more combo hands than sets, so I made the call. What I failed to consider is that I'm not all that far ahead of the combo hands, but I'm WAAAY behind the sets. I should have folded based on the weighted average of expectation, even if we assume my assumptions are correct. He had TT for the flopped set. I was right on the read, at least.
@justinhart7172 Жыл бұрын
Sounds like a fair fight, good rec Vs mediocre pro lol
@stevezagieboylo9172 Жыл бұрын
@@justinhart7172 It is. He and are about even in confrontations. Of course, against the rest of the field in the Austin 1/2 game, we're both way ahead.
@eshootziscrs2868 Жыл бұрын
Yep he was weak.
@willinnewhaven3285 Жыл бұрын
There's an important issue in player-description here. A tight player is not necessarily one who will fold to pressure post-flop. For one thing, they start out with better hands but even given hte same hand, they are often too sticky for their own good.
@ZenMadmanPoker Жыл бұрын
Ultimately, "tight" is just rather vague and not specific enough to be useful. Tight when? Preflop? Okay, then their postflop ranges will generally be stronger. Tight postflop against aggression? Sure, now applying pressure post is more likely to be effective. There are definitely two very distinct player types: Those who play tight pre and you have to claw an overpair out of their cold dead fingers, and those who play tight pre and always think they're against a set when they get raised postflop (and thus fold a ton postflop as well).
@TheTree1 Жыл бұрын
Once i show a big fold i dont fold close spots the rest of the session.
@willinnewhaven3285 Жыл бұрын
@@TheTree1 Encouraging people to make plays against you only works if you get good hands while they remember. Of course, the longer you play against a group of players,, the better that works
@TheGuyCalledX Жыл бұрын
basically tight stations vs nits
@cfiyuhbv8rfbebuvrbty Жыл бұрын
treating the raise as all-in is a logical mistake imho, by doing so we allow the villain to make us fold most of our range here while risking only 400 to win 390 (265+125) already in the pot
@isaiahbaker68505 ай бұрын
It’s putting you all in though. You call that raise your money is going in no matter what
@mrpophireal3789 Жыл бұрын
What does Bart mean when he says stop and go can someone tell me ?
@JorKal4 Жыл бұрын
“Stop and Go” is when you lead out and get raised, you just call the raise (Stop) and then lead out on the next round of betting (Go). The most basic strategic use is to see if the flush completes before putting even more money into the pot.
@ZenMadmanPoker Жыл бұрын
Stop and Go is the idea of calling out of position with a strong hand with the intention of donk shoving the next street, often regardless of the card(s) that come. The classic example was flatting AK out of the blinds and then just jamming every flop. This was popular ~15 years ago. I think the idea was to maximize fold equity when people were likely to call correctly against a preflop jam, but fold a bunch of small pairs on random flops. So in this example, Bart's saying that this player could call the flop with QQ and then jam the turn (instead of checking to the raiser), provided it's not a diamond. Ultimately, though, it sounds like they both discarded this option because of how short the remaining stacks would be.
@Pablo00019 Жыл бұрын
Love the vids and the explanation. I wonder though is always cash hands and not tournaments. Why?
@jaymfc Жыл бұрын
done a bunch of the contest stuff and CLPgiveaway still show no entry.
@Aploplex Жыл бұрын
i don’t even need to look at the results to know villain has a set, in live poker your opponents literally tell you what they have and very rarely push equity at low stakes. they’re just insane stain nits and you punish them by having the best hand against them and getting max value because they can never fold their strong hands.
@seslocrit9365 Жыл бұрын
2/5 is not low stakes; 1/3 & 1/2 are low stakes. Playing that way against Nits aint great. You bluff and outmaneuver them; you don't wait for a good hand. Also, nothing about how the villain plays tells me he is nitty. Something tells me you don't know what a nit is.
@Jermo484 Жыл бұрын
There's no way it's always a set. People at 2/5 still bluff draws, they still super overplay two pair, top pair and overpairs. He could easily have JJ, TT, 87, diamonds, A9, 9T. A lot of them also love raising when the preflop aggressor bets low boards. Plus, he really shouldn't have 22 or many two pair - it's a way better board to jam than like 875.
@Aploplex Жыл бұрын
@@Jermo484 the hero described the villain before the hand started, that’s really all i needed to know lol. people simply don’t raise bluffs here because the bluffs besides flush draws are unintuitive, and people normally go bigger with flush draws
@Aploplex Жыл бұрын
@@seslocrit9365 of course i bluff them lol, im winning 15bb/hr at 2/5 over the past half a year. however once they show any aggression, you have to have the best hand, because they rarely fold after making a turn/river bet or raise on any street. should have made that clear
@justinhart7172 Жыл бұрын
@@Aploplex wow you make $75 an hour, that means your a pro, so you play 10 hours a day 6 days a week, and that’s modest schedule, so that’s $4,500 a week, that $18k a month and that’s $216,000 a year. Wow guys, hey Bart this guy is a crusher !!!!! He’s one of the best 2-5nl player in the country 💩
@MelFinehout Жыл бұрын
Could call it a protection bluff?
@tanthony298 Жыл бұрын
What was the runout??
@sean94485 ай бұрын
What the hell? Hand wasn't over. What were the turn and river cards?
@christophermanning6146 Жыл бұрын
I think there's 6 combos of AA in there, not 1. Point taken though, it's close and maybe leans towards a fold. I wish he had the Q of d.
@pot_kivach160 Жыл бұрын
18:26 it is a huge mistake shoving with an overpair into a Rockwall.
@MaydayAggro Жыл бұрын
It doesn't matter what the solver says using optimal ranges. What matters is the response of the solver to THIS VILLAIN'S raising range.
@lowlimitcashgamespodcast Жыл бұрын
Solver plus can’t duplicate these raise sizes. This is a clear jam.
@POKERBEAST25 Жыл бұрын
Can I get the piece from the neck up?
@sean3533 Жыл бұрын
Did villain see hero folded the set of fives on the previous hand? He must have showed if he was taking it into consideration.
@justinhart7172 Жыл бұрын
Ego
@seslocrit9365 Жыл бұрын
I think the problem is his preflop sizing. 120 is way to much even with a dead caller. Reduced his spr to an almost unplayable amount.
@CudleWudles52 Жыл бұрын
6x OOP w/ a caller in a live setting seems fine. Reducing the spr with an overpair is a good thing?
@seslocrit9365 Жыл бұрын
@@CudleWudles52 6x is not OK when getting 200BB in on the flop after a raise. And you reduce your SPR to an unplayable amount if you don't have a post-flop edge. If you don't have a post-flop advantage, wtf are you doing in the game?
@TheDjcarter1966 Жыл бұрын
Flop jam...if he has 99 so be it.
@qazzaqstan Жыл бұрын
This is the exact position I think I'll misplay more often than not and then get annoyed at myself post session after going over it.
@tehblogger Жыл бұрын
don't think you can be folding any kind of overpair vs this villain as described. Maybe TT and JJ occasionally but certainly never QQ+
@jameslyon8662 Жыл бұрын
The site clpgiveaway is closed, Bart what's up
@spenceringermanson4385 Жыл бұрын
I think bart went bust and they had to shut down
@goAway187 Жыл бұрын
this is a jam 100 percent not even close
@jeffp6989 Жыл бұрын
So did Dave spike a fucking Q and scoop or what? Blue Ball Vlog!
@StevenZakPokerVlogs Жыл бұрын
Call me crazy - this is a jam. QQ is literally one of the best hands hero will ever have in this spot if he’s never 3-betting 9s. Villain knows hero can’t have sets. Close eyes and call.
@sr4087 Жыл бұрын
Make a real statement and jam blind preflop and then one a person ends up calling you muck before flop is dealt
@gabrielrockman Жыл бұрын
For the end of the video, it's also a disaster if you just call the flop with a draw like 10-8 of Diamonds and you hit your draw on the turn, and the other player has an overpair or a set, and would have called a shove on the flop, but now he check-folds the turn or river because an obvious draw came in. You're basically giving him a free card to see whether or not the obvious draw comes in on the turn.
@Satoshiisnaruto Жыл бұрын
If you have fold equity this makes sense if they would ever fold an overpair or set to this jam. If not it’s not a profitable to jam a draw like that. In my opinion
@gabrielrockman Жыл бұрын
@@Satoshiisnaruto In this hypothetical situation that Bart was talking about, you would have enough equity for your draw that you'd be priced in to calling an all in shove on the turn even if your draw missed on the turn. If you've got enough equity that it makes sense to call all-in on the turn, then you don't need to have any fold equity to shove with the same draw on the flop. It's not really a matter of opinion, it's a matter of mathematics.
@peterdembowy4459 Жыл бұрын
Ahhhh so satisfying to hear. Nothing better than a old nit getting stacked for 200bb with his obv overpair Hopefully the 99 slowrolled you back down to 1/2NL
@coreyfranco70605 ай бұрын
I never seen a series trying to explain logic contradict itself over and over again...
@Amir-ib7nf Жыл бұрын
villain cant have 6 combos of 99 and 66 but only 3 of each
@Jermo484 Жыл бұрын
Yeah isn't the solver not that useful post flop live because people are betting 4-5x or more when the solver is going much smaller? Stack to pot ratios get so much smaller live with real people than online or in solver land.
@bookedroomer Жыл бұрын
general principles can still be built by what type of hands its betting on what types of flop but yeah exact ranges will be very different
@cadebruce4401 Жыл бұрын
It’s super useful to get context on how to interpret the board etc.
@ZenMadmanPoker Жыл бұрын
Presolved libraries for 100bb (or 200bb or whatever) are not going to be directly applicable, but you can enter whatever SPR you live when you run a solve. You just have to estimate your and your opponent(s) ranges to the best of your ability (which is exactly what you should be doing in-game anyway). The nice thing about running solves on live hands is that lower-SPR sims run faster.
@adrianamatlack532 Жыл бұрын
Only a fish would pay this tight reg off.
@frankbuscarello7486 Жыл бұрын
Omg I want to scream I’m half way through what about 1010 jj
@TheDjcarter1966 Жыл бұрын
No kidding and you can't give him all combos of 66 and 22 and 78 no way. Also AK,AQ,AJ maybe one combo each...you can calculate all you want this is a shove all day long.
@Hotobu Жыл бұрын
Maybe you were screaming so loud you didn't listen. The guy is an "OMC" villians aren't doing that against super tight players because guys like the caller are weighted towards high pairs.
@gregmajewski3406 Жыл бұрын
Sup Bart
@MrJoosebawkz Жыл бұрын
hey whats up man. it’s me Bart Hampton! Can I borrow $500 for the main event? I’ll pay you back with interest
@moneymikz Жыл бұрын
That’s just poker, nothing to do but berate the dealer, complain how cursed you are and rebuy (kidding don’t involve the dealers)
@rppoker8541 Жыл бұрын
15% what is that when you don’t cash 😂😂😂
@jarrodfulton Жыл бұрын
I’d imagine he flopped a set
@jarrodfulton Жыл бұрын
Damn I’m good
@wompwomp7177 Жыл бұрын
@@jarrodfulton😂
@justinhart7172 Жыл бұрын
Caller leveled himself into shipping cuz of his EGO. How you ask? We’ll, how does the villain know you folded a set to him earlier!!!?? Cuz you proudly showed him like a show off so he showed you his straight. You felt on top of the world. Don’t show and don’t tell, then you won’t level yourself like a rec
@lemonaus8871 Жыл бұрын
Was this a Donald Trump call in?
@Ballen81587 Жыл бұрын
I like your content Bart but those thumbnails with the fake chips are the worst man be better