Rule of thumb: When one of these interviews with Linneman is released, put down everything else you're doing and watch it. Right away.

I'm new to trading, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have....

The statement that home prices are not inflationary is something that needs to be pushed back on. A discretionary purchase, like sunglasses, is one and done. For housing, your property taxes RISE with home prices and are an ongoing expense. Not to mention the wealth effect of rising prices, which is somewhat akin to the massive stimulus in 2021, which most people agree was inflationary. And finally, higher home prices allow homebuilders to pay higher wages and maintain similar margins on new home builds. This is in effect what has been happening as productivity PER CONSTRUCTION WORKER has undoubtedly gone down. Now we add one more variable: foreign purchasers who are attracted to (gasp) HIGHER home prices and a stronger dollar. Foreign purchases add to the money supply as opposed to a simple domestic transaction. Thinking is underrated.

At this point, assume there won't be any rate cuts. The stock market is up this year without them. The Fed needs an economic tool for our next existential crisis--pandemic, war, housing collapse, etc.

90% of homeowners with mortgages of 4% or less is an incorrect statistic. Right now it's probably under 60% based on the National Mortgage Database. Apples to apples, about 26% of the population has a mortgage under 4% vs the 38% he indicated. (2/3 homeowners, 2/3 mortgage holders, 3/5 with mortgages 4% or under. The "critical mass" that will cause the lock-in effect to reverse is a lot closer than people think. Also, the household formation numbers as it relates to SFR completions is misleading; ANY housing can absorb new households (pretty ironic since this economist says he's been living in high rises). While SFR completions are down relative to the last cycle peak in 2006, multi-family completions are up significantly (almost 100%). Furthermore, while he is correct about a likely downcycle in housing that will constrain supply, what about that very same downturn in the economy that not only contains inbound immigration, but accelerates outbound immigration? Since natural population growth is stagnating, virtually ALL population growth must come from net immigration. There never is one variable. Housing analysts are pretty linear in their thinking.

No excesses? Meme stocks, 0DTE options, an ongoing boom/bust cycle in multi-family construction, BNPL, private credit.

CRE is toast 😂 I will be coming after the crash 1 silver ounce for a 6 story building