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There’s one other problem with the “slow erosion” model: China was able to undermine democracy in Hong Kong because it controlled the city. China doesn’t control Taiwan.

A salient historical point: In WW2 during his island-hopping campaign, Gen Douglas MacArthur was faced with the possibility of taking Taiwan. The only resistance was 20,000 starving Japanese troops. BUT....when faced with Taiwan's terrain and the difficulty of landing on the island, Army and Navy war planners estimated that they would need a minimum of 400,000 marines to take the island. And this was at the absolute historical zenith of the US Army and Navy in terms of equipment and manpower. And there are a lot more than 20,000 soldiers on Taiwan today.

Something often overlooked or at least not mentioned is that power corrupts. Jinping has managed to become life long dictator, remove his largest rivals, and have surrounded himself with absolute yes men. When this happens, and it always happens in dictatorships of all flavors, the dictator starts to be a true believer. What I mean is they start to believe their own propaganda. When this happens to expect the dictator to act in its own self interest, economic or otherwise, would be a mistake. Belief is extremely powerful and does have an effect in the material world. As Jinping further embraces the new "superiority" of the Chinese as a race, and country the likelihood of further horrors like we are seeing with Uyghurs will spread. In the end it doesn't matter if they don't actually have the ability to actual win the war in Taiwan, all that will matter is the dictator will believe he is able, and no one will tell him otherwise. Putin is a good example of this, and we've seen the results. Putin believed Ukraine would largely welcome him and his soldiers with open arms and the war would be over in a short order because he like i said, started to become a true believer. From many sources I've heard the push back Jinping will face from his inner circle is even less than Putin experienced. Dictators in these conditions NEVER act rationally. They act as they believe.

Yes, Taiwan makes those chips however: the Netherlands makes the machines that make the chips so the process starts in the Netherlands. Biden and the Dutch PM had a meeting about blocking China from being able to purchase the machines to further limit their capacity to possibly manufacture those chips themselves

As a small island nation next door to China myself, this was very insightful

We might be overlooking something... USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) is currently the Navy's forward-deployed aircraft carrier in Seventh Fleet. Whereas other carriers are homeported in the U.S. and deploy periodically, USS Ronald Reagan is permanently forward-deployed to Yokosuka, Japan and spends about half of each year at sea. Have you seen how deeply these carrier groups roll? We're already next door.

Imagine invading an island that has been preparing for the situation for 75 years

Would be more accurate to say that Mao ran and hid from the Japanese and Chiang and the nationalists were the ones fighting the Japanese. Then Mao attacked chiang, who was depleted.

In order for that "slow integration" scenario to happen, Taiwan would have to agree to join the PRC under the "one country-two systems" policy. Fat fucking chance of that happening.

I’m still confused how you got Chiang Kai Shek completely backwards

I feel it's important to note that towards the end of WW2, mao's forces held back to let KMT take the brunt and thus be weaker after Japanese withdrawal.

Never give in Taiwan. ✊💯🇵🇭

Better to assume that it is inevitable and prepare than assuming it won't happen and be caught flat footed

Long live a free Taiwan 🇹🇼

In December 2022, TSMC announced the construction of a new chip manufacturing plant in Arizona, and an additional expansion totaling a $40 billion USD investment. In addition, a news report indicated TSMC has enough property in Arizona for six manufacturing plants. It seems to me that diversifying abroad would be a way for TSMC to survive and continue operations even if their home base in Taiwan was destroyed in a war.

I'd say it's hard to understand why the people of China and Russia tolerate their state leaders... but then I remember tiamen square and Russias imprisonment of pretty much anyone speaking the truth or negatively of Russia at all I have pity for those people, but I hope they rise up soon and take action

I am enjoying these analyses of current events immensely. Thank you 🙂.

West Taiwan needs to chill out

I'm just so sick of war today. Ukraine, Syria, Palestine, etc. You'd think that by the 21st century we'd be able to solve problems without violence but here we are

Not if we make it clear to Beijing that the harms of such an invasion would outweigh the benefits. An invasion would harm trade.

Literally perfect timing for this release. I was looking for an updated video on this conflict

china and taiwan's economies are so tightly tied up to each other I don't think they could ever justify it, but then russia and ukraine's economies were tightly tied together as well

Just throwing it out there,china couldn't run those plants even if they had to due to their misunderstanding of the production process. You'd literally need to keep those engineers alive at gunpoint for them to be of any use

Before February 24th, 2022 I’d say 100% yes but now I put it at 60-70%

You do such an amazing job with your team! Thank you for providing all this knowledge ❤️

Good perspective and production!

Love you channel mate. Please, by all means… Keep It Up! 😎👍

I have an inkling that the more China feels military might is the only way to reintegrate Taiwan and that the United States will get involved. The more likely China will pull a Japan and attack US Pacific assets first in order to allow themselves breathing room with Taiwan. This is why strategic ambiguity was important because giving China any sense of hope the US wouldn’t get involved would help prevent a first strike option.

Man I just realized after this vid that the Civil War China had is actually not over its the same situation as north and south Korea but just that Taiwan is not fully recognized which put them in a very shitty situation.

Wonderful job!

Just want to put in my 2 cents. As of yesterday, (10/02/2023) the RAF, Australian and US air force took part in the largest Allied Air exercise over Asia in history. Think we're all thinking "when's it all going down" when we put on the news these days.

Simon, I absolutely love your description of Sheath underwear lmao. Might try some... make things... more airy lol.

Love this channel and appreciate the attention to detail. One small thing. You refer to China’s current leader as “Xi Jian Ping” and former leader as “Mao Zi Dong” but you refer to the KMT leader as “Kai Chek Chiang”. The KMT’s leader’s last name is Chiang, so to keep with your main naming convention, he should be referred to as “Chiang Kai Chek”. Just a small detail. Keep up the great work!

Thank You For This Video Very Educational Indeed .

As a Brit, China’s rhetoric on Taiwan reminds me a lot of British rhetoric on Ireland in the run up to independence.

Honor and Respect 🪶 Greetings from Avondale Florida

We largely don’t really know what would happen We have a idea but not the full picture *but let’s just hope it doesn’t come to that*

Just thought about needing a new pair of underware. I guess i know what is there for me to do? Thank you, Simon.

*Simon Whistler, the archduke of KZfaq*

Two systems is now a myth.

"Hoping to dissuade". That's a very fancy way of saying "Threatened".

🤣 Simon on underpants and their contents: "Well there's actually 3 main parts, but two of them we'll call one group." Simon how do you get your head so smooth every day? I need you to get back to me with that advertisement!

Simon is truly something else, managing so many channels.

You miss 3 key strategic points (1) Nearly all the advanced semiconductors are designed in the USA (2) a stand off naval blockade would be imposed on China, not close to their shores, but through the straits of Mallaca and the Indian Ocean (3) if the prc controls Taiwan, they also control the second island chain which makes it much easier to exert control over the entire SCS. Something like 60% of the world trade transits the SCS: we cannot let the prc control it.

Well done thanks

I think your writer misspelled the Chinese presidents name its actually spelled WINNIE THE POOH

This has very strong flavor of Peter Zeihan's work, I like it.

Great video as always, I'm loving the more speculative side of things lately, such as the Iran vs USA video and the Nagorno Karabakh.

I love this channel!!!

Hey Simon! Please make a video on the Battle of Bautzen!

Its so tense lately. I feel like we are on the verge of WW3.

Unless China has a shit ton of assault landing craft, a conventional invasion would be problematic. An extensive barrage to level the major cities would risk the industrial assets that would be a major goal of any conflict.

12:40 also your toaster, your non smartwatch and the remote for the tv.

They could use the World in Conflict method, using disguised civilian cargos and declared 'garissoning' island.

Japan’s increasing military strength could serve as a deterrent against Chinese aggression towards Taiwan. Japan, an island nation that imports a significant amount of resources and agricultural products, delivered by ships, some of which pass through the Taiwanese Strait, Japan would have a lot to lose if China were to take over Taiwan. Appreciate your work Simon, from South Africa

I’ve been looking forward to “The Million Man Swim” for a decade now 😂

Interesting video.

You hit that nail on the head with the fact that semiconductors are a major key to the world's economy, and that Taiwan is right in the center of that. While the US and Europe (and TSMC) scramble to build high-end factories outside of Taiwan, the Chinese look longingly at the Taiwan-based, best-in-the-world factories. They would Love to control them, and the world. And, to be accurate, the Chinese are not "violating Taiwanese airspace". They are pushing into the Taiwanese ID zone. Not a violation, but it forced Taiwan air assets to scramble interceptors.

"Reunification" is a bit of a misnomer, since Taiwan has never been under the control of the PRC. It was a Japanese colony when the PRC was established, and was ceded to the ROC at the end of WW2. Using the CCP's terminology only helps give credibility to their specious claims over Taiwan. Words like "conquest" would be more appropriate.

Yes

Time for a trip into the Whistlerverse. Cheers

About the Chinese Civil War, the nationalist were the ones doing the most fighting (and dying). The Communists marshalled their strength(Mao thanked Japan to speed up the takeover).

Regarding the taking of the outer islands as a move is really only possible with the Kinmen island off Xiamen, Matsu island off Fuzhou due to their closeness to China and the Pratas and Taiping due to their distance from Taiwan in the South China sea. The rest of the islands mentioned are too closed to Taiwan for a sudden invasion without Taiwanese intervention. The sudden taking of these island do have implication on violating the status quo which was always mentioned regarding the cross strait issue by US, China, Taiwan, and everybody else. The status quo is that Taiwan do no declare independence, China shall no start an invasion. So obviously if the CCP decide to take any of the island, it would be breaking the status quo they've been asking people to uphold, it would be akin to starting an invasion on Taiwan anyway. As to the asymmetric warfare, I do agree with it except the part that asking Taiwan to forgo any build up of conventional military forces. Taiwan need airforce and navy to keep its sea land of communication open for supplies to come in, and so while the airforce and navy would be destroyed quite rapidly in the beginning of the war, however long they could survive improves whatever chance Taiwan had.

When KZfaq interrupts your sponsorship spiel with ads, have we hit peak monetisation?

How can you breach ADIZ when that crosses into their airspace / mainland ?

Taiwan has the greatest kind of defense: its geography. Taiwan north and western coast have just a few places where China could use as a landing place, knowing that, Taiwan needs only to strengthen the defense of those spots to make the landings very costly to China. US and Japan know this too. The way I see it, Taiwan existence is something that benefits Xi politically. Xi can use Taiwan as propaganda and as a diversion to local problems. Something goes bad at home? Put Taiwan "threat" in every news and people will have a distraction. I believe it is in Xi's best interest to keep Taiwan as an independent state instead of committing to a very costly invasion for now.

If this happens, then we're f*cked up aswell - A guy from the Philippines

absolute top notch host

im surprised japan wasn't mentioned though they have been slow about it they have been ramping up there capabilities to counter china as well and would not simply sit back and let china do whatever it wants and if i remember right i think they even said they would intervene if china acts

I forsee a whole bunch of social credit points being accumulated here in the comments section...

i love it when simon talks about underwear

Is there any chance of turning these into podcasts? Listen on drives.

To think he said at least a million men would be needed for a d-day type assault. Bloody nuts. To quote Gladiator, strength and honor Taiwan 🇹🇼

I absolutely love the unbiased telling of all sides of every story by Simon and his research team! Thank you for the giving it to you straight approach to every topic you cover. Well done and keep it coming!

Winnie the Pooh starts WWIII. A picture book by A. A. Milne.

I wish he talked louder , I could barely hear when at work, and I really enjoy listening

Did you say Chiang Kai-shek's name that way on purpose?

I have no idea what you keep using the phrase “reunify Taiwan” Taiwan is not and has never been part of the consolidated Chinese state. I think the word you’re looking for is colonial invasion, imperial takeover, annexation, etc…

Very informative. You disregard several important facts with regards to the Russian situation.

They don't have the sealift capability at the moment to do it effectively but give them a couple of years and they will. News of Japan's increased military spending might force things through quicker though.

Daily remainder Taiwan is an independent democratic nation

Scottish independence more likely than Taiwanese.

Can you do a history video of the South African border war 1966 to 1990 ?

You are forgetting spies, saboteurs, militia groups, double agents, special forces, stealth technology, nukes, size of the border that must be defended, paranoia, plus many other things that I can easily point out

I bought 5 pairs of sheath undies over the last year. They're great. They'll only last about 18 months if you wear an individual pair about once a week, machine washing and drying them between each use

Before watching, the simple answer is no, and much effort is made to keep it from becoming inevitable,

This guy is amazing

Just outta curiosity: how many countries have to um, participate(?) in a war for it to be considered a World War? How is that defined?

Taiwan is a country. Deal with it

Not as good as your Ukraine analyses have been, but appreciated nonetheless. I learned a couple things. My feeling is that the risks and costs of a Taiwan invasion outweigh the benefits so dramatically as to render an invasion virtually inconceivable. Of course, as the Princess Bride teaches us, the inconceivable can happen. If China is going to do it, they have to do it SOON. The US is entering about a 10-year period when it's going to be at a bit of a low-ebb in terms of military power. Alot of it's military systems are aging and refresh programs are underway, but not expected to bear fruit for about a decade. There are ship retirement and building efforts that have lags between them producing a slightly diminished naval capability. And of course, everything happening in Ukraine has drained some of the West's stockpiles. But China has so many problems FAR more important than Taiwan. It's demographic crisis. Housing crisis. Financial sector crisis. The pain of ending Zero-COVID. Global trends are for companies to do on-shoring, pulling operations out of China in favor of returning to western counties. China continues to struggle with high levels of corruption (albeit not at Russian levels...probably. Hard to know since China lies about all of it's data). And Taiwan would be SO MUCH HARDER to take than Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia share HUGE land borders. The terrain is flat and easy to navigate. Taiwan is mountainous. The weather and seas make an amphibious landing only viable at a couple times a year. The cliffs in many places mean there's only so many viable landing spots. That's in addition to the stuff mentioned in the video. Given the west's sprawling sanctions and aid to Ukraine, a country that isn't even all that important to the west, the notion that it wouldn't do FAR MORE to defend Taiwan would be hopelessly optimistic thinking. The CCP's hold on power (and Xi's in particular) is based on the illusion of competence. The deal they've made with Chinese citizens is that they're the technocrats that pulled much of the country out of the abject poverty of the Mao era and before. Do you want liberty or rice on the table? But the fallout from an invasion of Taiwan would undermine this illusion of competence. The one argument I can see is that Xi and the CCP have already wrecked the illusion of competence, and in a desperate attempt to salvage their rule, they look to nationalist pride. Nothing brings a country together like a good war. I think Xi is rational enough to see how risky a strategy that is. He needs to saber-rattle because it's part of his nationalist brand, but one would have to be really dumb to launch this invasion. I know alot was made out of the recent wargame that concluded the US would pay a heavy price defending Taiwan from China....but the US still WON every scenario. The price paid by China was HIGHER. And that's BEFORE sanctions and the disconnection from the global economy that would follow. Invading Taiwan would be an even dumber idea for China than invading Ukraine was for Russia. Just an opinion.

The navy landing against Taiwan would be so huge that it's called "Million Man Swim".

Ya ya we're all waiting

If China were smart, they'd realize Taiwan wouldn't be worth the trouble. Besides, if their military were entirely focused there, other nations could take advantage of that distraction. India could occupy and liberate Tibet and Tibet can declare their independence from China. South Korea can finally take out North Korea, reuniting the peninsula under the South's form of government. The CCP's arrogance will be their downfall.

I have family there. I hope no invasion happens.

Yep, long overdue as well. Not that I want it to happen, but it's long been in the pipeline

YES

A few corrections: China doesn't have the "One China Policy"; that belongs to the United States, which states that the U.S. doesn't take a stance but that the conflict should be resolved peacefully, with respect to people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. Essentially, the PRC can't unilaterally determine Taiwan's future. The PRC has the "One China Principle," which states that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China; the United States merely acknowledges that the PRC has the "One China Principle." This doesn't mean they support it or adhere to it. Additionally, the term 'reunification' is incorrect, as the two entities have never been united unless we go back to the 1800s with the Qing Dynasty. Moreover, the CCP has never ruled Taiwan. Unification would be more appropriate, as the PRC looks to annex Taiwan. 'Mainland' in a post-modern context is also problematic because it implies that the two sides are one entity. While there may be strong economic connections, which can be said about any country and the PRC at this point, Taiwan has its own military, currency, passports, political system, elected officials, and most importantly, the PRC has no jurisdiction or control over any of them. To clarify the point about 'independence,' Taiwanese aren't seeking independence from the PRC. Taiwan already has de facto independence and hasn't been ruled by the PRC in any way. Many Taiwanese would simply like to rid their country of the ROC moniker and the constitution that was forced upon them. Understanding modern-day Taiwan requires nuance, given the complexity of Taiwanese history and the PRC's efforts to coerce the world into adopting its perspective and obfuscate the situation.

We also may want to mention, that the PRC imports most of its food and energy. If the oil and food supplies are interrupted, the PRC does not have sufficient naval power to do anything about it. Despite having a large number of ships, most of them are small and would not stand a chance asserting any power outside the China sea. I do not think the US will directly involve themselves into a conflict, but it will provide Taiwan with any weapon they need. Most certainly the US will establish a naval blockade of the PRC. The rest of the world would stop trading with China, very much to their own harm, but this move will send the PRC back to the stone age. At the moment at least the PRC is not sufficiently advanced to prosper without western technology. Furthermore, time is not on the side of the PRC. Their population is aging faster than any other population on earth. The only possible approach would be a negotiated take-over of Taiwan. After all the PRC is Taiwan's largest trading partner.

Short Ans: yes Long Ans: yes, but there is debate how large the scale would be, and how successful the operation would be.