Warren Buffett: Long-term Bonds Are Terrible Investments

  Рет қаралды 95,689

valueinvestorsportal

valueinvestorsportal

5 жыл бұрын

In this video, Warren Buffett explains why long-term bonds at 3% are terrible investments. Charlie Munger chimes in as well at the 2018 Berkshire Hathaway Meeting.
📈 Trending Videos:
1. Warren Buffett On When To Buy Stocks: • Warren Buffett On Whe...
2. Warren Buffett Subpoenaed & Testifies: • Warren Buffett Subpoen...
3. Warren Buffett On Investing Small Sums: • Warren Buffett on Inve...
DISCLOSURE: We may review or link to products & services we regularly use and think you might find helpful. If you click one of the links in this description and make a purchase we may receive a small commission or other compensation.

Пікірлер: 117
@Aubatron
@Aubatron 2 жыл бұрын
He didn't really say they're a terrible investment, just that they're a terrible investment at the current rates. If mortgage rates jump up 5%, the increase in interest rates ripple across all sectors of loans, and will drive up the return on bonds and make them worth it. Bonds are essentially that, a loan you're giving out. You just need to know the basics about the different types of investments to understand things like this.
@karimmourabitamari6540
@karimmourabitamari6540 11 ай бұрын
Banks blew up with their long term bonds and interest rate increases. That was quite spectacular.
@askformoreinfowhichyouwont7510
@askformoreinfowhichyouwont7510 4 жыл бұрын
@4:27 i love charlie munger, god bless his soul
@stevenagood1159
@stevenagood1159 2 жыл бұрын
You missed to quote "at current rates" 1:35
@elvismark5172
@elvismark5172 Жыл бұрын
The markets are still doubtful that the Federal Reserve will keep to its plan to raise interest rates until inflation is under control, even if bond yields are rising while stock prices are falling. What is the greatest method to profit from the current bear market while I'm still deciding whether to sell my $401,000 worth of stocks?
@amiltondavis
@amiltondavis Жыл бұрын
Developing a solid financial portfolio is more difficult, therefore I suggest you seek expert assistance. The ideas you receive after that can be tailored to your long-term goals and financial desires.
@oscarjiron6974
@oscarjiron6974 Жыл бұрын
You're not doing anything incorrectly; you simply lack the expertise to capitalize in a down market. Professionals with extensive expertise who must have witnessed the 2008 crisis are the only ones who may profit significantly during turbulent times like this
@AnthonyHart34
@AnthonyHart34 Жыл бұрын
@@oscarjiron6974 I require suggestions on how to restore my portfolio and create more effective strategies in light of the huge declines. Where can I locate this instructor?
@oscarjiron6974
@oscarjiron6974 Жыл бұрын
@@AnthonyHart34 I wholeheartedly back financial counsellor Ruth Loralann Brennan, who holds a US SEC licence. She has been helping me for a long with my portfolio. You may look her up online because she has many reviews.
@alexanderjames3043
@alexanderjames3043 Жыл бұрын
@@oscarjiron6974 Fascinated to know, Her credentials are undoubtedly excellent, Sharon appears to be very knowledgeable. I discovered her online profile and read through her resume, educational background, and qualifications, which were all very impressive. She is a fiduciary, so I scheduled a session with her.
@andreyfox735
@andreyfox735 3 жыл бұрын
That's weird. His teacher, Ben Graham, tells us that we need to mix both stocks and bonds to get secured in case of market crash. And Mr Buffet is telling that 2,5% that's nothing..the main idea of bonds is not to increase the value, but is to save your money
@RadioStaring
@RadioStaring 3 жыл бұрын
If your gains are not outpacing inflation, you're not saving money. In 2018 inflation was 2.44%. .06% return is nothing.
@BarkingSpider464
@BarkingSpider464 3 жыл бұрын
When Ben Graham wrote that the interest rates were almost 10%
@popsmokeai
@popsmokeai 3 жыл бұрын
is he now implying we should invest in short term bonds only?
@TheInsaiyan
@TheInsaiyan 3 жыл бұрын
Don't invest im bonds at all They aren't what they used to be, totally useless. Investing in a slow but sustain growth stock like Amazon leads to better results and probably even security at this point.
@tw3f4tes52
@tw3f4tes52 3 жыл бұрын
Ben Graham wrote the Intelligent Investor in a time when bond yields were much higher. Now the interest rates are almost nonexistent.
@zack_120
@zack_120 3 жыл бұрын
As a master, Buffet should've more careful when smashing any type of major investment instrument to avoid confusing/misleading investors. Blatantly saying 'long term bond is terrible' is certainly not justified. The scenarios at which the saying applies should've been specified.
@bradleyboyer9979
@bradleyboyer9979 3 жыл бұрын
Agreed! Buffett always does this. He always explains his rationale for things in an incomplete way. It always makes me wonder what his motivations are. He benefits greatly from inflated equity prices, so it may be as simple as that. But Warren Buffett is definitely knowledgeable enough to understand that bonds are not held for their cash flow.
@diseasefire
@diseasefire 2 жыл бұрын
at any give scenario they are a terrible investment right now. Until rates increase to 10% or more that will be the case (and that will probably take a while)
@bradleyboyer9979
@bradleyboyer9979 2 жыл бұрын
@@diseasefire Rates aren't going to increase organically ever again within the confines of our current financial system. They will rise when there is massive stimulus passed, but it's not going to happen. I have made a killing the last few months on 3x leveraged long term treasuries, and I think this will continue until the next big stimulus. Nothing about our current system is real. Everything is based on government intervention.
@diseasefire
@diseasefire 2 жыл бұрын
@@bradleyboyer9979 its possible but what you are doing is a speculation about their future price. If you are able to predict interest rates you ll definitely make money but i just dont get in that game personally
@bradleyboyer9979
@bradleyboyer9979 2 жыл бұрын
@@diseasefire I agree on that point. I just don't think they'll ever fo up because of the level of debt in our system. We can't generate enough growth
@mmaranta785
@mmaranta785 2 жыл бұрын
When I worked at Lockheed, we could buy EE Bonds and get them in our paychecks
@_arnavmathur
@_arnavmathur 2 жыл бұрын
In the book "inteligent investor" written by his guider B.graham , says that we should have a mix of bonds and stocks with one not less than 25% and not more than 75%
@DeadRatStew
@DeadRatStew 5 ай бұрын
I’m going thru that book right now, and just got to that part, says to keep 50-50 split of bonds and stocks
@eftijiskaravasilis8204
@eftijiskaravasilis8204 4 жыл бұрын
Not if you had bought them at a steep discount or as in the case of the Austrian 100 yr. Ultra low yield the best performing over the past few years.
@bradleyboyer9979
@bradleyboyer9979 3 жыл бұрын
Of course you are correct, but Buffett is nearly always misleading about his investments. Everyone know you don't buy bonds for the cash flow. You buy them as a hedge in case equities go down and interest rates fall. These two are beyond frustrating. Charlie Munger is so old and bitter that his judgment about everything is clouded. I would never listen to a word he says.
@diontaedaughtry974
@diontaedaughtry974 4 жыл бұрын
Thank you this was very helpful and informative 👍👍
@cabc74
@cabc74 Жыл бұрын
"at current rates"
@404TRUCKERTV
@404TRUCKERTV 3 жыл бұрын
First of all, bonds are not an investment. They're basically used as a stop loss. You limit your risk, and make just enough to break even and or cover your expenses, You're not suppose to make a killing in bonds. Warren buffet has bonds, he's not telling the whole truth. when his money is waiting for use, I don't think its just sitting in cash. He lends it, or buys bonds, t bills, and land are a good storage for cash you have laying around.
@luigiadler
@luigiadler 3 жыл бұрын
But he says that BKB has short term bonds (1:44). He is talking about how long term tresury bonds are bad as an investment, as you said it yourself
@idobackflipz
@idobackflipz 3 жыл бұрын
Luigi Guimarães Luigi , I don’t think he watched the video . Simply saw the title and felt like leaving a comment with his opinion, which is a misguided one at best . Raw land is one of the most speculative investments you can make . You have no idea if you’re going to make any type of return on it especially not in the short term.
@bradleyboyer9979
@bradleyboyer9979 3 жыл бұрын
Of course you are correct, but Buffett is nearly always misleading about his investments. Everyone know you don't buy bonds for the cash flow. You buy them as a hedge in case equities go down and interest rates fall. These two are beyond frustrating. Charlie Munger is so old and bitter that his judgment about everything is clouded. I would never listen to a word he says.
@404TRUCKERTV
@404TRUCKERTV 3 жыл бұрын
@@bradleyboyer9979 100% agreed!
@philswensen5863
@philswensen5863 2 жыл бұрын
You didn't even listen to the video; he says nothing about short-term bonds here, which he often holds. Hot heads are always trying to prove these guys wrong; it's hilarious.
@meysamesfahaniofficialmeys557
@meysamesfahaniofficialmeys557 3 жыл бұрын
Charlie is a real OG. He says I don’t give a F with class.
@LCTesla
@LCTesla 5 жыл бұрын
please make clear when this video was recorded; Buffett is talking about 2018 like it's some point in the future
@valueinvestorsportal
@valueinvestorsportal 5 жыл бұрын
May 5, 2018
@exbladex99
@exbladex99 3 жыл бұрын
Treasury bonds secure your money in times of crises. Even though Buffet bought some gold mining companies, even those crash during a recession, but your bonds may stay relatively stable. So you put a big portion of your money into Treasury to protect it from the effects of the economy. This is very important for retirement funds. "the govt will bail me out" I'm just gonna roll the dice on these retirement funds right before a recession... is a good way for a stock broker to risk prison time. While retroactively punishing laws are never advisable, there's always the potential of it.
@rheechashaipu1927
@rheechashaipu1927 3 жыл бұрын
He placed an infitismly small portion of his money in gold MINING stocks, not gold. People act like he suddenly became a gold bug when in reality he's still barely involved in that asset type.
@philswensen5863
@philswensen5863 2 жыл бұрын
His cash holding position are short term bonds. he just doesn't like the math of long term bonds as investments. If you go with the averages your scraping pennies if at all
@michaelfarkas2257
@michaelfarkas2257 2 жыл бұрын
berkshire is about 80 percent in stocks and 20 percent in cash/short term bonds if i analyzed their capitalization correctly.
@philswensen5863
@philswensen5863 2 жыл бұрын
@Michael Farkas seems more or less consistent of his $350 billion dollar portfolio - however, that doesn't include any of berkshires wholly owned businesses such as Sees, Duracell, Geico...etc. for the total market cap $770 billion , or even the ~ $590 billion net asset value.
@tmoss017
@tmoss017 3 жыл бұрын
Why would anyone purchase bonds??
@zelllers
@zelllers 3 жыл бұрын
*at current rates It's not the fact that long term bonds are bad investments full stop, it's because of the current conditions. This weather changes often, however.
@NN-pe6ip
@NN-pe6ip 2 жыл бұрын
People have been waiting for raising interest rates since 2008, I called it back then that we would never go back to pre-great recession interest rates, just look at Japan. I would predict we never go back to the old normal during the lifetimes of anyone alive today.
@MotoCzar
@MotoCzar 4 жыл бұрын
When Warren Buffet speaks, wise men listen!
@RootsRockRebel
@RootsRockRebel 4 жыл бұрын
In this case, the oracle is quite wrong. There is more to a Treasury than its coupon. Long Treasuries have returned about 30% YTD. Far, far better than Berkshire which has been lagging the S&P by quite a bit lately.
@TyKOmain
@TyKOmain 4 жыл бұрын
Yeah treasuries are a better long hold than gold or other commodities as a hedge. People run to treasuries when things are bad. When things are good you collect a small coupon. Better hold Tbills than cash
@samuelhastings6859
@samuelhastings6859 4 жыл бұрын
nothing has a stronger consistent negative correlation to the sp500 than the 20-year US treasury bond. absolutely agree on Roots, bad times will always and have made treasuries increase in value and to rebalance into that strength into a weak stock market via rebalancing- amazing.
@tzc9309
@tzc9309 11 ай бұрын
yeah i mean berkshire/warren has over 100 billion in treasury bonds right now and plans to continue buying more in the coming months - says a lot about what he thinks about the economic environment. More than likely if we enter a recession you may not see returns like that elsewhere is his line of thinking, plus now bonds are at around 5% and at a historical high for recent decades - now it makes sense to buy bonds. But when you are looking at things like the nasdaq rising at ridiculous rates, it makes zero sense to not own stocks over bonds, unless the economy reaches a state where such gains will stop and things begin to crash and fall - which will probably be sometime soon. Also if the US goes into a bad recession now, the world is essentially in a worse recession at that point, especially when you look at many other world economies struggling and the US being a key vein/driver within all of this and being a reserve currency, you will be more than happy to be seeing such returns (which are pretty much guaranteed) on your money rather than losing a lot whilst inflation eats away at it's value at the same time, then you can hopefully reinvest some of that money when prices look good for well valued stocks once they are down a lot.
@CandlelightRevival
@CandlelightRevival 3 жыл бұрын
If you bought TLT - ETF (20 year treasury bonds) in May of 2018 your return by September 28,2020 would be about 33%
@KingXKok
@KingXKok 3 жыл бұрын
They're bad investments for the long term but can be short term hedges against the rest of your portfolio
@joecurran2811
@joecurran2811 2 жыл бұрын
ETF don't provide sustainable income though, they're essentially like a share price.
@_arnavmathur
@_arnavmathur 2 жыл бұрын
Bad investment ..
@ezirikeezirike
@ezirikeezirike 3 жыл бұрын
After buffet said he didn’t know he then said exactly what happened lol. As expected
@Whitehead100100
@Whitehead100100 3 ай бұрын
Wow phenomenal advise and experience! Everything here said was golden! Maybe treasuries someday will be popular again...
@user-cv2ue5zl1r
@user-cv2ue5zl1r 3 жыл бұрын
1:22
@hothotheat3000
@hothotheat3000 2 жыл бұрын
There’s a place for them. They just don’t need to dominate your portfolio. If I hit the Powerball, or cashed out some insane amount of Bitcoin, I’d absolutely secure enough municipal bonds so that I could have a tax-free income stream for the rest of my life, while everything else goes into more lucrative investments.
@jimmylabb5868
@jimmylabb5868 Жыл бұрын
Bonds are not a bad store of value if they provide higher yield!🤔
@Nxla-92751
@Nxla-92751 Жыл бұрын
Glad to see your comment in here. People need to be able to adjust portfolios as rates change. A 60/40 stock bond portfolio is too umbrella to have vast underperformance in the long term. Getting more aggressive on bonds when yields are aggressive and the Federal reserve is hinting at potential hike slow, is a great time to begin purchasing(potentially). But even in evaluating time horizon, people in their 20’s (in my opinion) should not have more than 10% in bonds. Risk needs to be accepted in the younger years to have any meaningful return. There’s a reason Microsoft, JNJ and one other I can’t think of at this moment corporate bonds are rated safer than US treasuries.
@cashrules520
@cashrules520 Жыл бұрын
This won't age well when the 20yr treasury etf $tlt hits 84 and doubles while paying a fat monthly dividend
@jmc8076
@jmc8076 7 ай бұрын
Risk if deflation 2024 and incr fiscal deficits >inflation>returns.
@lyrikaljatt
@lyrikaljatt 6 ай бұрын
$tlt at 94 now and YTD return is -2.26% while SP 500 is up 22%. Not entirely sure what you meant by it won't age well. :D
@cashrules520
@cashrules520 6 ай бұрын
@@lyrikaljatt you're not too bright... this was posted over 1yr ago, when TLT was above $100, it was around $120 at the time I posted this. I said when it hits "84" which it did.. now we ride the wave up to $180... you tried to smart and played yourself
@lyrikaljatt
@lyrikaljatt 6 ай бұрын
@@cashrules520 Great, you are totally smarter than Warren Buffet. 👍
@zerlyzerly7572
@zerlyzerly7572 4 жыл бұрын
God bless
@Kruton3
@Kruton3 Жыл бұрын
Short treasury bonds
@F15ElectricEagle
@F15ElectricEagle 3 жыл бұрын
Anything Buffet has to say about investing has to be taken with some skepticism. You hear him talk about his belief and philosophy in investing that resulted in successes, but he has his share of failures and losses (that seldom gets mentioned). The difference is he can afford those losses. Most other investors can't.
@kushalchaudhari21
@kushalchaudhari21 Жыл бұрын
5:10
@deficator750
@deficator750 4 жыл бұрын
Charlie is always sleeping lol
@mmaranta785
@mmaranta785 2 жыл бұрын
They both have the same voice
@joelspring6201
@joelspring6201 3 жыл бұрын
There is a place for investments that might not make you a lot of money, but will keep your money safe and secure till the time when you need to withdraw it. I'm not a financial expert, but when it comes to the thought of putting all of my life savings into the stock market there are two specific years that come to mind 1929 and 2008. The stock market crashed and many people who were about to retire saw their life savings go down the toilet in those years. You should invest in the stock market, but you should also put a portion of your savings into investments that may not make you a lot of money, but they will be more secure such as CDs and Government Bonds. Warren Buffett is wrong when it comes to Long-Term Bonds in my opinion.
@jonbloor5064
@jonbloor5064 3 жыл бұрын
Here here. I am 3 quaters reading a book by Tony Robbins and he talks about the all weather portfolio by Ray Dalio. Bonds are one element that's need. And as it's said you might not get rapid returns but your money will be safe. Slow and steady wins the race.
@joelspring6201
@joelspring6201 3 жыл бұрын
@@jonbloor5064 Exactly. Like I said, people should invest in the stock market if they want to maximize their returns. Which I do by the way. However, the stock market is very risky and I think it's absolutely foolish for anybody regardless of their age to put all of their life savings into stocks and mutual funds. One day your portfolio might be looking really good, but because the stock market is so volatile the next day which may be the day you have to retire your portfolio could be flushed down the toilet due to a stock market crash. I'm thirty years old and yes I put a lot of my savings in stocks and mutual funds, but I also put a portion of my savings in CDs and Government bonds, because the returns on those investments are far more guaranteed. I won't make a lot of money off of those investments, but I know it's highly unlikely I will lose any money on those investments as long as I hold them to their maturity which I have every intention of doing. It's all a matter of keeping your portfolio balanced. Have a part of your portfolio that will maximize your returns but is high risk and have part of your portfolio that is lower on returns but the returns are more guaranteed and your money is much more protected. At the end of the day, it all depends on what your individual financial goals are.
@_arnavmathur
@_arnavmathur 2 жыл бұрын
This is number 1 bullshit
@michaelfarkas2257
@michaelfarkas2257 2 жыл бұрын
if you had all your money in stocks at any of those bad times your wealth would only go down by 50 percent and would recover and push much higher just a few years later.
@elitepunch1498
@elitepunch1498 10 ай бұрын
Long term bonds are fantastic if they can offer 2 digit returns
@thomas16031
@thomas16031 2 жыл бұрын
Charlie Munger be cool as a cucumber.
@Jgriffin0808081
@Jgriffin0808081 Жыл бұрын
Damnit, when i hear these 2 talk, i have instant buyers remorse for everything ive ever bought and wish i had invested young
@DLC56
@DLC56 Жыл бұрын
Do what you do. Keep learning and invest ( and hold) wisely. Maybe you ( and I ) did not start young but we have started. Keep your head. UP
@Jgriffin0808081
@Jgriffin0808081 Жыл бұрын
@DLee C Thank you for the kind words, I appreciate that!
@markhughes2143
@markhughes2143 2 жыл бұрын
🖼🎎
@jackcarraway4707
@jackcarraway4707 3 жыл бұрын
DO NOT INVEST IN BONDS. Given how much USDs we print out, the interest rate will never beat inflation.
@geoffgordon9569
@geoffgordon9569 2 жыл бұрын
Buy I Bonds before May 2022 to lock in a great rate.
Dave Explains Why He Doesn't Recommend Bonds
7:58
The Ramsey Show Highlights
Рет қаралды 603 М.
How Bond Investing Can Still (Sometimes) Fail | WSJ
6:29
The Wall Street Journal
Рет қаралды 255 М.
1❤️
00:17
Nonomen ノノメン
Рет қаралды 13 МЛН
World’s Deadliest Obstacle Course!
28:25
MrBeast
Рет қаралды 158 МЛН
Ray Dalio: Don't Own Bonds, Don't Own Cash
6:10
Bloomberg New Economy
Рет қаралды 411 М.
Warren Buffett’s Most Iconic Interview Ever
7:33
Investor Center
Рет қаралды 1,1 МЛН
Bond Investing 101--A Beginner's Guide to Bonds
45:01
Rob Berger
Рет қаралды 237 М.
Warren Buffett Recites a 600 B.C. Investment Equation
9:44
The Financial Review
Рет қаралды 791 М.
Bond Investing For Beginners 2023 | Complete Guide
54:28
Nate O'Brien
Рет қаралды 174 М.
Milton Friedman Speaks: Money and Inflation (B1230) - Full Video
1:26:04
Free To Choose Network
Рет қаралды 1,1 МЛН
A potential weakness in Warren Buffett's investment approach
6:11
The Financial Review
Рет қаралды 45 М.
Cash vs Bonds in Retirement
19:44
Rob Berger
Рет қаралды 61 М.
1❤️
00:17
Nonomen ノノメン
Рет қаралды 13 МЛН