출렁이는 증시•환율•유가 중동사태가 한국 경제에 미치는 영향
Ever since Iran and Israel traded direct attacks against each other's territory for the first time, heightened geopolitical tensions have been felt in South Korea’s economy.
Joining me in the studio to discuss is our economics correspondent, Moon Hye-ryeon.
Welcome, Hye-ryeon.
Thank you for having me.
So Hye-ryeon, let’s begin by talking about oil prices. What’s been happening to international oil prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East?
Well, Dami, oil prices have seen fluctuations over the past two weeks.
Last week, oil prices shot up - the global benchmark Brent crude oil jumped by more than three percent, and surpassed 90 U.S. dollars per barrel as Iran and Israel traded direct attacks against each other’s territory for the first time.
Oil prices have also been fluctuating this week following Israel’s limited retaliatory strikes, but did come down with traders dismissing the possibility of a sustained war between the two sides, and the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz being cut off.
Washington might also place sanctions on Iranian crude oil, but the oil market’s response has been limited so far.
Then how are oil prices relevant in South Korea’s current economic climate - and what has the government been doing to try and tackle these hikes?
The main concern regarding a hike in oil prices is how it could affect consumer prices and whether it could become an obstacle to bringing the country’s headline inflation down to the 2 percent range by the end of this year.
The Federation of Korean Industries gave four different scenarios for how oil prices could affect consumer prices based on past case studies such as the 1973 oil crisis.
Should active conflict break out and crude oil prices rise to over a hundred dollars a barrel consumer prices could rocket up past 4 percent, and experts say that a fuel tax cut won’t bring headline inflation down.
Here’s what one expert said, given that the core inflation rate excluding food and energy prices has been stable at around 2-point-5 percent this year.
“This figure is the lowest level since 2022, implying that the price level excluding energy products has stabilized a lot during the past 2 years. Given that the price level has already stabilized a lot compared to before, we can expect that the effect of the tax cut will be somewhat limited.”
Other than oil prices, what other changes has the country’s economy seen following the attacks?
The South Korean won has been sharply depreciating against the greenback over the past two weeks, with the U.S. dollar strong in markets around the world.
Recent data has shown that the exchange rate between the two currencies has risen by over seven percent this year - and this rate exceeds that of the rates seen during the financial crisis of 2008.
So last week, Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok met with his counterparts from the U.S. and Japan in Washington, D.C. and addressed concerns over the sharp devaluation of currencies against the dollar.
Here’s what he said.
“Our three countries need to cooperate to actively respond to financial instability that real economic uncertainty can cause.”
The governor of the Bank of Korea also commented on the unstable currency exchange market during a press conference, saying that the volatility with the won-dollar exchange rate has been somewhat excessive, and it should be minimal going forward as long as the situation in the Middle East does not get any worse.
And he wasn’t wrong - looking at the won-dollar exchange rate this week, it’s been less unstable than immediately following the attacks last week.
If investors are seeking safe-haven assets, then wouldn’t that also affect the country’s stock market? How has the country’s benchmark KOSPI been affected?
The country’s benchmark KOSPI index saw a sharp decline - last Friday, it dipped below the 2-thousand-560 mark for the first time since February.
This comes as foreign investors seek safe haven assets, but pundits say another big factor for stock investors has been hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials that shot down hopes of rate cuts earlier this year.
Here’s what an expert said...
#MiddleEast #SouthKorea #Economy #Oil_prices #Exchange_rate #Stock #중동 #증시 #환율 #유가 #Arirang_News #아리랑뉴스
📣 Facebook : / arirangtvnews
📣 Twitter : / arirangtvnews
📣 Homepage : v2.arirang.com/
2024-04-27, 12:00 (KST)